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***Official 2020 Democratic Contested Convention Thread*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter fatguyinalittlecoat
- Start date
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Feeling more confident about this prediction with every passing day. Right now I have a hard time seeing any of the candidates getting 50% of the delegates.
joffer
Footballguy
i agree. Bernie, Joe, Warren, and Bootyjudge seem like they're in it for the long haul.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
KiddLattimer
Footballguy
I agree too. If Bernie has a significant lead but less than 50% it's not going to end well for the Dems if they go with someone else.
Cynic in me wonders if that's why there are so many candidates in the first place
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timschochet
Footballguy
It’s actually much more likely that by Super Tuesday or even before that, Joe Biden will be the clear nominee and the race will be effectively over.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
I didn’t say mathematically; I said effectively.
Biden’s one of the front runners in both Iowa and New Hampshire, though winning both would be an upset. But if he did win one or both and South Carolina, I think the race will be considered over and this is much more likely than a contested convention.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
If he wins those states it will be with a plurality of like 25% of the vote. Even in South Carolina he’s getting like 35% of the vote. That’s not going to make anybody drop out.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
538 just launched a new feature to try to predict the outcome of the Democratic primary
Right now it gives a 13% chance to "nobody will get a majority of the delegates." I think that seriously underestimates the real number, but even if it doesn't, 13% still seems significant. Biden and Sanders are the only candidates right now that have a better than 13% chance of winning the nomination outright by winning a majority of the delegates.
Right now it gives a 13% chance to "nobody will get a majority of the delegates." I think that seriously underestimates the real number, but even if it doesn't, 13% still seems significant. Biden and Sanders are the only candidates right now that have a better than 13% chance of winning the nomination outright by winning a majority of the delegates.
Bottomfeeder Sports
Footballguy
Candidates don't drop out because of the delegates other candidates receive, but due to whether or not their funding dries up. It used to amaze me how many candidates were gone after the "first in the nation" contests and just how quickly everyone jumps on the front runner(s) bandwagon. Maybe the big prizes in California and Texas makes this time different for an extra week, but I can also see those big prizes putting a fork into the race even sooner than normal.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Michael Bloomberg's funding will never dry up. Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and Biden all reported big fundraising numbers last quarter, and all are closely bunched up in the early state polls. It's difficult for me to imagine any of them dropping out until it is very obvious that somebody else is going to win a majority of pledged delegates. And I think it will be months before there's going to be a candidate that will obviously get over 50%, if that ever happens.
There's also a bit of a circular process here. Under normal circumstances, there's no motivation for a candidate to try to keep getting delegates if some other candidate is going to end up with over 50% of the delegates. So everyone but the frontrunner drops out. But if it doesn't look like ANY candidate will get over the 50% threshold, that encourages ALL the other candidates to keep trying to stockpile delegates in the hope that they can work something favorable out at the convention, even if they themselves have no chance to reach the 50% threshold.
ETA: I don't see why the big states like California will end the race. None of the Democratic primaries are winner-take-all. Right now 538.com predicts Biden will win California but only get 137 delegates out of 415. That's not even close to 50%.
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fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I'll go with fatguyinalittlecoat's reasoning on this and say it seems like it's got a legitimate chance of happening.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Based on last night’s results I don’t see any of the major candidates dropping out any time soon. On Super Tuesday there will be something like 5 candidates dividing up the delegates.
rockaction
Footballguy
I'd have to look into the delegate picture and Super Tuesday more. These races are really unpredictable. Somebody could seize momentum and just truck the field. California, Texas, Virginia, etc. Lot to digest. I'm not really a horse race guy; it just seems that if there's any year, this might be the one. Lots of funding, as you mentioned, being doled out in order to defeat Trump without a frontrunner to funnel money to yet.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
There isn’t much of an opportunity for this to happen. It’s NH, NV, SC, then Super Tuesday (where about 1/3 of all delegates will be up for grabs).
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
A contested convention is going to be glorious. It would be incredibly entertaining if it were the Republicans, but Democrats provide more entertainment value when it comes to intra-party knife fights.
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
OhPleaseOhPleaseOhPlease. . . .
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
If Bloomberg and Steyer take down as many votes on Super Tuesday as it looks like they will this could be real. And the realer it gets the more incentive there is for everyone to stay in the race. Which ups the odds again.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I feel like you could open any thread in the PSF at random, post "Boy, tim sure got this one wrong didn't he?" and it would work perfectly.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
No dog on this fight, but I’d be very surprised if Warren pulls a Kasich and stays in without winning primaries.
KiddLattimer
Footballguy
Tim and I almost never agree on this stuff but I know he's put a lot of thought into his positions and he's willing to stick his neck out there and take crap when he's wrong... I respect that
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
KiddLattimer
Footballguy
skol asylum
Footballguy
Enter All Gore. Time to give him his 2000 due.
538 model now has a tie for first between Sanders and No One.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
KiddLattimer
Footballguy
Assuming nobody single handedly gets 51% of the delegates, can two candidates combine their delegates and work together? Say, Pete and Amy make a deal to run together and combine theirs?
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
I'd feel better about a contested convention if that showed 3 candidates tied for first instead of one clear leader.
I believe Buttigieg, at a brokered convention, could ask his delegates to vote for Klobuchar, but I don't know how likely they are to oblige. I really don't know how a contested convention would work. It seems worth looking into.
Sweet J
Footballguy
joffer
Footballguy
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
Houston mayor endorsed Bloomberg. Bernie opening an office in Austin.
sho nuff
Footballguy
skol asylum
Footballguy
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I believe that's exactly what would happen. The moderates would horse trade to a majority. If they stay in the race Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar should have 50%÷ combined. IMO Sanders will need to get there on his own to be the nominee.Maurile Tremblay said:
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Am I correct in the below:
DNC re-wrote the rules this cycle to eliminate Super Delegates, but only from the First ballot. If there is not a clear cut winner (contested convention), the pledged delegates become un-pledged and Super Delegates are then introduced. If that happens, I can't see a Bernie Nomination. Almost certainly the Super Delegates would swing it to one of the establishment-approved candidate- Pete or Klobuchar. Or maybe even Bloomberg
DNC re-wrote the rules this cycle to eliminate Super Delegates, but only from the First ballot. If there is not a clear cut winner (contested convention), the pledged delegates become un-pledged and Super Delegates are then introduced. If that happens, I can't see a Bernie Nomination. Almost certainly the Super Delegates would swing it to one of the establishment-approved candidate- Pete or Klobuchar. Or maybe even Bloomberg
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I think this is the cool part...has the potential to get really nuts.
"A majority vote of the Convention's delegates shall be required to nominate the presidential candidate" and "Balloting will continue until a nominee is selected"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention
"A majority vote of the Convention's delegates shall be required to nominate the presidential candidate" and "Balloting will continue until a nominee is selected"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
You are correct, and the scenario you describe seems very likely to me. Tom Perez should be spending every waking hour trying to figure out how to emerge from the convention without tearing the party apart.
hagmania
Footballguy
For unity's sake, the nominees themselves would be able to solve this, and pretty simply: when all the delegates have been handed out after the final primary, second place and below should endorse the delegate leader going into the convention.
Imagine that it's Pete in the lead and every state reads off all their delegates for him. Would be awesome.
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