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Duke Johnson the Texan - TRADED (2 Viewers)

Early. predictions, pulled straight outta my buttocks:

helps: Texans

Hurts: LMiller

Same: Johnson - although maybe fewer checkdowns unless by design, especially with a mobile QB who may just as soon tuck & run. 

 
Quite possibly the starter next year. L Miller is a FA in 2020.

You don't give a 4th that could be possibly be a 3rd rd pick for a backup.

Could very well be the next Tiki Barber who's silent for 3-4 yrs and then blows up.

 
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Early. predictions, pulled straight outta my buttocks:

helps: Texans

Hurts: LMiller

Same: Johnson - although maybe fewer checkdowns unless by design, especially with a mobile QB who may just as soon tuck & run. 
I think its a sizable upgrade for Duke. I think he can potentially pass Miller, and by their RB1 going forward. He's always been better than  the Browns used him as, he just had a complete buffoon for a coach, and by the time he didn't, they had a superior player in Chubb(and Hunt) 

Miller isn't better than Duke in my opinion, and while Miller is still the starter(for now) I'd expect it to be 55-45 in Miller's favor to start the year, with Duke having a decent chance of taking the lead.

I hope Miller owners sold in the Foreman being cut window.

 
I think its a sizable upgrade for Duke. I think he can potentially pass Miller, and by their RB1 going forward. He's always been better than  the Browns used him as, he just had a complete buffoon for a coach, and by the time he didn't, they had a superior player in Chubb(and Hunt) 

Miller isn't better than Duke in my opinion, and while Miller is still the starter(for now) I'd expect it to be 55-45 in Miller's favor to start the year, with Duke having a decent chance of taking the lead.

I hope Miller owners sold in the Foreman being cut window.
Did Duke bring a better run blocking OL with him? 

That’d help.

I’ve never been that impressed with him other than as a receiver. As a receiver he’s terrific. The running is just too small a sample size for me to point to and believe his 4.3 YPC 

we’ll see what happens. I agree Miller is trash, but he’s trash who knows the system & the Texans trust. 

For 2020 I’d bet the Texans draft a RB. 

 
Big positive for Chubb and potential receiving work?
Big positive. 8 weeks to show he’s capable of handling all 3 downs. Then I expect Hunt will have a nice role. How Chubb handles the 3 down work the first 8 weeks could go a long way into what the Browns do in the future with Hunt next year and if they feel they need to have a passing down back to go with Chubb in the years after Hunt.

 
At least until week 9 when Hunt comes back. Then it’s anyone’s guess how that CLE backfield shakes out. 
There was a lot of chatter a week ago or so,  that the Browns were very excited about Hunt, and that he could certainly push Chubb into at least an even timeshare. Of course, that won't matter for half the year, so Johnson being gone, possibly adds 20-25 catches to Chubb, which probably locks him into a top-15 pick.

 
Big positive. 8 weeks to show he’s capable of handling all 3 downs. Then I expect Hunt will have a nice role. How Chubb handles the 3 down work the first 8 weeks could go a long way into what the Browns do in the future with Hunt next year and if they feel they need to have a passing down back to go with Chubb in the years after Hunt.
Video of Chubb reception from Baker

Dan Labbe‏Verified account @dan_labbe

Baker to Chubb. He’s been very involved in the passing game all camp.

8:11 AM - 2 Aug 2019

-----------------------------------

Chubb was a rookie coming off knee surgery who admitted he was 'swimming' trying to keep up and learn on the fly last year.  He wasn't used in the passing game till late in the year.  He struggled in pass-pro and still isn't a natural receiver but he's done a ton of work and is much more comfortable in the receiving game.  He'll be used but so will Hilliard who should get work as the 3rd down RB and he should be a bargain.

 
Anyone want to guess a number in an auction league? Previously FBG had him in the $2 range on a $200 budget. I think this boosts him significantly. Maybe 2 or 3x the value? Put him in the Tevin Coleman/Drake/ Freeman range?  That seems a little on the high side to me. I like him better now than where I had him which was below Chris Thompson, McKinnon, Bernard, Richard.

 
He hasn't really been discussed yet, but does this hurt Keke Coutee a bit? Some of his value was being the guy getting short passes as an extension of the running game. Might some of his work, become Johnson's work? Or would that make Coutee more likely to run deeper routes, as he's also pretty fast?

 
Anyone want to guess a number in an auction league? Previously FBG had him in the $2 range on a $200 budget. I think this boosts him significantly. Maybe 2 or 3x the value? Put him in the Tevin Coleman/Drake/ Freeman range?  That seems a little on the high side to me. I like him better now than where I had him which was below Chris Thompson, McKinnon, Bernard, Richard.
I’d say he’s a $6-7 player on a $200 budget now. Until we’ve seen

1. How the Texans use him

2. How well/quickly he adjusts to the new offense.

3. How effective Miller is this year

its anyone’s guess what the real value is.

this may shake out in the preseason.   :shrug:

 
Duke is the perfect compliment to Miller as the Texans have been hurting for a receiving RB and have needed help in the slot for years. A 4th is cheap for a solid backup RB and one of the top receiving RB's in the league, Johnson is in his prime age and his contract is team friendly through 2021. Likely the only way that turns into a 3rd is if Miller misses a bunch of time and Duke has to take over as primary RB.

I'd avoid this RB situation for fantasy though, true RBBC IMO. Despite fantasy people not liking Miller, the Texans love him so he's unlikely to lose his role this year except through injury. Big boost to Chubb for the 1st part of the season. Hurts Coutee, but helps Watson who has not had any consistent or healthy receiving help outside of Hopkins.

Long-term maybe Duke can be the lead back, but more likely they either extend Miller or draft a replacement next year. They might have been interested in Gordon if he was a FA next year, but wouldn't need to spend big money on him with Duke in the fold now covering the receiving duties for the next few seasons.

 
I’d say he’s a $6-7 player on a $200 budget now. Until we’ve seen

1. How the Texans use him

2. How well/quickly he adjusts to the new offense.

3. How effective Miller is this year

its anyone’s guess what the real value is.

this may shake out in the preseason.   :shrug:
I agree it is probably a 1 tier bump from where he was. His career high in rush attempts is 82 and receptions is 74, both in 2017 and 7 combined TD. He finished RB 12 that year. Using that as his ceiling, I think he made my target list at $5-6. Hopefully he doesnt get nominated during the early rounds.

 
Duke is the perfect compliment to Miller as the Texans have been hurting for a receiving RB and have needed help in the slot for years. A 4th is cheap for a solid backup RB and one of the top receiving RB's in the league, Johnson is in his prime age and his contract is team friendly through 2021. Likely the only way that turns into a 3rd is if Miller misses a bunch of time and Duke has to take over as primary RB.

I'd avoid this RB situation for fantasy though, true RBBC IMO. Despite fantasy people not liking Miller, the Texans love him so he's unlikely to lose his role this year except through injury. Big boost to Chubb for the 1st part of the season. Hurts Coutee, but helps Watson who has not had any consistent or healthy receiving help outside of Hopkins.

Long-term maybe Duke can be the lead back, but more likely they either extend Miller or draft a replacement next year. They might have been interested in Gordon if he was a FA next year, but wouldn't need to spend big money on him with Duke in the fold now covering the receiving duties for the next few seasons.
According to Fox Sports-Houston,  if Duke is active for 10 games it becomes a 3rd. That seems very likely. 

 
Makes him relevant again, happy to see it.

For redraft I’ll bump him up to the Samuels / Hines Tier, potential PPR guys, in front of handcuffs & assorted lottery tickets. Some stand alone value because of his receiving floor.

Still hard to understand what the Texans are thinking. They have so many weapons in their prime and an above average defense. With a dynamic playmaker at RB they could make a serious run.

 
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Video of Chubb reception from Baker

Dan Labbe‏Verified account @dan_labbe

Baker to Chubb. He’s been very involved in the passing game all camp.

8:11 AM - 2 Aug 2019

-----------------------------------

Chubb was a rookie coming off knee surgery who admitted he was 'swimming' trying to keep up and learn on the fly last year.  He wasn't used in the passing game till late in the year.  He struggled in pass-pro and still isn't a natural receiver but he's done a ton of work and is much more comfortable in the receiving game.  He'll be used but so will Hilliard who should get work as the 3rd down RB and he should be a bargain.
I liked what I saw from Chubb as a receiver last year. Clearly raw but flashed some skills. Comfortable catching the ball in close and even had a couple targets down the field. I’m sure they’d rather get him the ball however possible than Hilliard.

 
According to Fox Sports-Houston,  if Duke is active for 10 games it becomes a 3rd. That seems very likely. 
Not seeing that confirmed anywhere but will assume its true. In which case I like it a bit less although the Texans will probably have an extra 3rd through the Comp pick process.

 
Makes him relevant again, happy to see it.

For redraft I’ll bump him up to the Samuels / Hines Tier, potential PPR guys, in front of handcuffs & assorted lottery tickets. Some stand alone value because of his receiving floor.

Still hard to understand what the Texans are thinking. They have so many weapons in their prime and an above average defense. With a dynamic playmaker at RB they could make a serious run.
Can’t imagine why they’ve stuck with the Lamar Miller experience for this long. I would have expected a splash move at RB in the off-season.

Add a top tier RB like Bell to this mix & that offense is unstoppable. 

Miller/Duke = somewhat stoppable. 

Just from a FF perspective I miss the ground & pound days of the Texans. Arian Foster was fun to have on my roster in 2012. 

 
Week 10 / game 9.
Yes. when I say weeks it’s like saying “10 days” to mean 14 in the business world. The assumption is “business days”, as one wouldn’t count weekends.

likewise for BYEs in the NFL. By “weeks” I always mean “game weeks”, but your clarification is accurate. 👍🏼

 
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Gotta think this is big for Duke, in 2020. 
I expect Miller to eventually get a pink slip, but between the bumper crop of RB on the way and my thinking Duke can't handle the feature role I think he'll be sharing again. Will he be 1A or 1B though? That I don't know, especially because if this topic has legs then the Texans are also already down a 3rd round pick to potentially use to acquire a RB.

 
I expect Miller to eventually get a pink slip, but between the bumper crop of RB on the way and my thinking Duke can't handle the feature role I think he'll be sharing again. Will he be 1A or 1B though? That I don't know, especially because if this topic has legs then the Texans are also already down a 3rd round pick to potentially use to acquire a RB.
Exactly.  They'd have to use a 1st or 2nd next year (after already losing a third) to be able to draft a guy who would be as good or better than Duke. 

 
Exactly.  They'd have to use a 1st or 2nd next year (after already losing a third) to be able to draft a guy who would be as good or better than Duke. 
RB value has sunk the last few years. Other than a Saquan, who’s a generational talent, bruiser backs with short shelf life tend to be available in the 4th-5th these last few drafts. 

Teams stopped paying premium price tags on an oft-injured position. 

Duke Johnson with the Texans tells me more that they’re comfortable drafting a 2-down bruiser and going RBBC next year.

i do not expect Johnson will be a 3-down feature back in 2019 or 2020 unless injury forces that to happen. 

 
Exactly.  They'd have to use a 1st or 2nd next year (after already losing a third) to be able to draft a guy who would be as good or better than Duke. 
It's why I'm open minded to the possibility, but again - this crop coming up is a good one. Duke has to get an opportunity at a feature load this year and show he's up for the task, rather than hobbling off the field after two touches only to not be seen again until after halftime. But this situation is why I was either buying or holding him the last few months.

 
RB value has sunk the last few years. Other than a Saquan, who’s a generational talent, bruiser backs with short shelf life tend to be available in the 4th-5th these last few drafts. 

Teams stopped paying premium price tags on an oft-injured position. 

Duke Johnson with the Texans tells me more that they’re comfortable drafting a 2-down bruiser and going RBBC next year.

i do not expect Johnson will be a 3-down feature back in 2019 or 2020 unless injury forces that to happen. 
Don't agree about the bolded - right or wrong, top backs are drafted early. Re-signing them is their issue. I think you're right about the early day three backs though. Even if Duke shows enough to prevent the Texans from drafting a back early they still may take one for him to share with. Especially because in a strong RB class better ones will fall to day three than usual.

 
I don’t think that’s as high a bar as you think. For finding a guy better than Duke at the early down stuff.
You think a guy taken in the mid/late fourth or after next year would get early down work over Johnson who's been in the system for a year?  I'm not really familiar with next year's class of RBs, but this past year didn't have much talent at the position by the mid third round.

Looking at semi recent RB NFL trades - Jordan Howard went for a 5th or 6th rounder.  Ty Montgomery went for a 7th.  Carlos Hyde went for a 5th.  Ajayi went for a 4th (after a 1,400 season).  Peterson was traded for a 6th.  M Lynch was traded for the difference between a 5th and a 6th rounder.  So, Houston just gave up more than any team has traded for a RB in the last 3 years.  I don't think they'd do that unless they see him as a likely starter, or at least a 1A in a tandem. 

 
You think a guy taken in the mid/late fourth or after next year would get early down work over Johnson who's been in the system for a year?  I'm not really familiar with next year's class of RBs, but this past year didn't have much talent at the position by the mid third round.

Looking at semi recent RB NFL trades - Jordan Howard went for a 5th or 6th rounder.  Ty Montgomery went for a 7th.  Carlos Hyde went for a 5th.  Ajayi went for a 4th (after a 1,400 season).  Peterson was traded for a 6th.  M Lynch was traded for the difference between a 5th and a 6th rounder.  So, Houston just gave up more than any team has traded for a RB in the last 3 years.  I don't think they'd do that unless they see him as a likely starter, or at least a 1A in a tandem. 
Or they don't have a GM, and whoever is running the front office is just winging it?

 
Don't agree about the bolded - right or wrong, top backs are drafted early. Re-signing them is their issue. I think you're right about the early day three backs though. Even if Duke shows enough to prevent the Texans from drafting a back early they still may take one for him to share with. Especially because in a strong RB class better ones will fall to day three than usual.
What’s not to agree with? It’s reality. In the past you’d see as many as 6-7 day 1 RBs, many of them in the top 10.

2019 NFL draft: Josh Jacobs 24 overall. The only 1st round RB. Next RB selected was at 53 by the Eagles (round 2) & at 70 (end of the 3rd round) the Rams took Henderson. 4 more RBs went in Round 3. 

2018 draft: 1st round Barkley 1.02, Penny to the Seahawks at 27 & Pats grabbed Sony Michele at 31. Chubb early 2nd but most went in round 3. 

With more specialist RBs & RBBCs, there’s just not the same emphasis on early pick RBs as there once was. The game’s changed a bit - that’s definitely had an impact.

Anyway, back on topic - just because the Texans traded potentially (likely) a 3rd rounder doesn’t mean they can’t trade back up to the 3rd round if that’s where they want to draft a RB, right? 

That seems somewhat obvious.  :shrug:

 
You think a guy taken in the mid/late fourth or after next year would get early down work over Johnson who's been in the system for a year?  I'm not really familiar with next year's class of RBs, but this past year didn't have much talent at the position by the mid third round.

Looking at semi recent RB NFL trades - Jordan Howard went for a 5th or 6th rounder.  Ty Montgomery went for a 7th.  Carlos Hyde went for a 5th.  Ajayi went for a 4th (after a 1,400 season).  Peterson was traded for a 6th.  M Lynch was traded for the difference between a 5th and a 6th rounder.  So, Houston just gave up more than any team has traded for a RB in the last 3 years.  I don't think they'd do that unless they see him as a likely starter, or at least a 1A in a tandem. 
For the most part, older backs with vastly different contract situations. For Duke to be considered the starter or 1A in a tandem you’re talking 200+ touches? I’ll go way under that for 2020.

 
So, Houston just gave up more than any team has traded for a RB in the last 3 years.  I don't think they'd do that unless they see him as a likely starter, or at least a 1A in a tandem. 
Or 1b in a tandem; or as a specialist receiving back, or as a talented piece they that could get on the cheap from a team with a glut at the position. 

Or they have a GM who doesn’t value draft picks that highly. 

One could Imagine a myriad of possibilities why they’d make such a trade. 

 
Or 1b in a tandem; or as a specialist receiving back, or as a talented piece they that could get on the cheap from a team with a glut at the position. 

Or they have a GM who doesn’t value draft picks that highly. 

One could Imagine a myriad of possibilities why they’d make such a trade. 
Put Duke Johnson in a James White role and you could have something. What did the Pats give up for someone like Blount as the early down back? Virtually nothing. Plenty of guys out there who can bang between the tackles if you don’t have one of the stud 3 down backs. 

 
Put Duke Johnson in a James White role and you could have something. What did the Pats give up for someone like Blount as the early down back? Virtually nothing. Plenty of guys out there who can bang between the tackles if you don’t have one of the stud 3 down backs. 
Exactly.

 

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