I think its a sizable upgrade for Duke. I think he can potentially pass Miller, and by their RB1 going forward. He's always been better than the Browns used him as, he just had a complete buffoon for a coach, and by the time he didn't, they had a superior player in Chubb(and Hunt)Early. predictions, pulled straight outta my buttocks:
helps: Texans
Hurts: LMiller
Same: Johnson - although maybe fewer checkdowns unless by design, especially with a mobile QB who may just as soon tuck & run.
Did Duke bring a better run blocking OL with him?I think its a sizable upgrade for Duke. I think he can potentially pass Miller, and by their RB1 going forward. He's always been better than the Browns used him as, he just had a complete buffoon for a coach, and by the time he didn't, they had a superior player in Chubb(and Hunt)
Miller isn't better than Duke in my opinion, and while Miller is still the starter(for now) I'd expect it to be 55-45 in Miller's favor to start the year, with Duke having a decent chance of taking the lead.
I hope Miller owners sold in the Foreman being cut window.
If Vegas were taking odds I’d bet substantially against that.Could very well be the next Tiki Barber who's silent for 3-4 yrs and then blows up.
Those are the two biggest beneficiaries IMO.Love this as a Chubb and Watson owner whew
At least until week 9 when Hunt comes back. Then it’s anyone’s guess how that CLE backfield shakes out.Big positive for Chubb and potential receiving work?
Big positive. 8 weeks to show he’s capable of handling all 3 downs. Then I expect Hunt will have a nice role. How Chubb handles the 3 down work the first 8 weeks could go a long way into what the Browns do in the future with Hunt next year and if they feel they need to have a passing down back to go with Chubb in the years after Hunt.Big positive for Chubb and potential receiving work?
There was a lot of chatter a week ago or so, that the Browns were very excited about Hunt, and that he could certainly push Chubb into at least an even timeshare. Of course, that won't matter for half the year, so Johnson being gone, possibly adds 20-25 catches to Chubb, which probably locks him into a top-15 pick.At least until week 9 when Hunt comes back. Then it’s anyone’s guess how that CLE backfield shakes out.
Video of Chubb reception from BakerBig positive. 8 weeks to show he’s capable of handling all 3 downs. Then I expect Hunt will have a nice role. How Chubb handles the 3 down work the first 8 weeks could go a long way into what the Browns do in the future with Hunt next year and if they feel they need to have a passing down back to go with Chubb in the years after Hunt.
I’d say he’s a $6-7 player on a $200 budget now. Until we’ve seenAnyone want to guess a number in an auction league? Previously FBG had him in the $2 range on a $200 budget. I think this boosts him significantly. Maybe 2 or 3x the value? Put him in the Tevin Coleman/Drake/ Freeman range? That seems a little on the high side to me. I like him better now than where I had him which was below Chris Thompson, McKinnon, Bernard, Richard.
It’s a trade thread involving 2 teams.13 posts into Duke's thread, and the last 7 don't even mention him.
I agree it is probably a 1 tier bump from where he was. His career high in rush attempts is 82 and receptions is 74, both in 2017 and 7 combined TD. He finished RB 12 that year. Using that as his ceiling, I think he made my target list at $5-6. Hopefully he doesnt get nominated during the early rounds.I’d say he’s a $6-7 player on a $200 budget now. Until we’ve seen
1. How the Texans use him
2. How well/quickly he adjusts to the new offense.
3. How effective Miller is this year
its anyone’s guess what the real value is.
this may shake out in the preseason.
According to Fox Sports-Houston, if Duke is active for 10 games it becomes a 3rd. That seems very likely.Duke is the perfect compliment to Miller as the Texans have been hurting for a receiving RB and have needed help in the slot for years. A 4th is cheap for a solid backup RB and one of the top receiving RB's in the league, Johnson is in his prime age and his contract is team friendly through 2021. Likely the only way that turns into a 3rd is if Miller misses a bunch of time and Duke has to take over as primary RB.
I'd avoid this RB situation for fantasy though, true RBBC IMO. Despite fantasy people not liking Miller, the Texans love him so he's unlikely to lose his role this year except through injury. Big boost to Chubb for the 1st part of the season. Hurts Coutee, but helps Watson who has not had any consistent or healthy receiving help outside of Hopkins.
Long-term maybe Duke can be the lead back, but more likely they either extend Miller or draft a replacement next year. They might have been interested in Gordon if he was a FA next year, but wouldn't need to spend big money on him with Duke in the fold now covering the receiving duties for the next few seasons.
I liked what I saw from Chubb as a receiver last year. Clearly raw but flashed some skills. Comfortable catching the ball in close and even had a couple targets down the field. I’m sure they’d rather get him the ball however possible than Hilliard.Video of Chubb reception from Baker
Dan LabbeVerified account @dan_labbe
Baker to Chubb. He’s been very involved in the passing game all camp.
8:11 AM - 2 Aug 2019
-----------------------------------
Chubb was a rookie coming off knee surgery who admitted he was 'swimming' trying to keep up and learn on the fly last year. He wasn't used in the passing game till late in the year. He struggled in pass-pro and still isn't a natural receiver but he's done a ton of work and is much more comfortable in the receiving game. He'll be used but so will Hilliard who should get work as the 3rd down RB and he should be a bargain.
Not seeing that confirmed anywhere but will assume its true. In which case I like it a bit less although the Texans will probably have an extra 3rd through the Comp pick process.According to Fox Sports-Houston, if Duke is active for 10 games it becomes a 3rd. That seems very likely.
Week 10 / game 9.At least until week 9 when Hunt comes back. Then it’s anyone’s guess how that CLE backfield shakes out.
Can’t imagine why they’ve stuck with the Lamar Miller experience for this long. I would have expected a splash move at RB in the off-season.Makes him relevant again, happy to see it.
For redraft I’ll bump him up to the Samuels / Hines Tier, potential PPR guys, in front of handcuffs & assorted lottery tickets. Some stand alone value because of his receiving floor.
Still hard to understand what the Texans are thinking. They have so many weapons in their prime and an above average defense. With a dynamic playmaker at RB they could make a serious run.
Yes. when I say weeks it’s like saying “10 days” to mean 14 in the business world. The assumption is “business days”, as one wouldn’t count weekends.Week 10 / game 9.
Have to think they add a legit back somehow.Gotta think this is big for Duke, in 2020.
Unless they draft a RB with an early pick.Gotta think this is big for Duke, in 2020.
That’s my thought as well.Have to think they add a legit back somehow.
I expect Miller to eventually get a pink slip, but between the bumper crop of RB on the way and my thinking Duke can't handle the feature role I think he'll be sharing again. Will he be 1A or 1B though? That I don't know, especially because if this topic has legs then the Texans are also already down a 3rd round pick to potentially use to acquire a RB.Gotta think this is big for Duke, in 2020.
That many decent rookie RBs coming out next year?That’s my thought as well.
Exactly. They'd have to use a 1st or 2nd next year (after already losing a third) to be able to draft a guy who would be as good or better than Duke.I expect Miller to eventually get a pink slip, but between the bumper crop of RB on the way and my thinking Duke can't handle the feature role I think he'll be sharing again. Will he be 1A or 1B though? That I don't know, especially because if this topic has legs then the Texans are also already down a 3rd round pick to potentially use to acquire a RB.
I don’t think that’s as high a bar as you think. For finding a guy better than Duke at the early down stuff.Exactly. They'd have to use a 1st or 2nd next year (after already losing a third) to be able to draft a guy who would be as good or better than Duke.
I believe so, yes.That many decent rookie RBs coming out next year?
RB value has sunk the last few years. Other than a Saquan, who’s a generational talent, bruiser backs with short shelf life tend to be available in the 4th-5th these last few drafts.Exactly. They'd have to use a 1st or 2nd next year (after already losing a third) to be able to draft a guy who would be as good or better than Duke.
It's why I'm open minded to the possibility, but again - this crop coming up is a good one. Duke has to get an opportunity at a feature load this year and show he's up for the task, rather than hobbling off the field after two touches only to not be seen again until after halftime. But this situation is why I was either buying or holding him the last few months.Exactly. They'd have to use a 1st or 2nd next year (after already losing a third) to be able to draft a guy who would be as good or better than Duke.
Don't agree about the bolded - right or wrong, top backs are drafted early. Re-signing them is their issue. I think you're right about the early day three backs though. Even if Duke shows enough to prevent the Texans from drafting a back early they still may take one for him to share with. Especially because in a strong RB class better ones will fall to day three than usual.RB value has sunk the last few years. Other than a Saquan, who’s a generational talent, bruiser backs with short shelf life tend to be available in the 4th-5th these last few drafts.
Teams stopped paying premium price tags on an oft-injured position.
Duke Johnson with the Texans tells me more that they’re comfortable drafting a 2-down bruiser and going RBBC next year.
i do not expect Johnson will be a 3-down feature back in 2019 or 2020 unless injury forces that to happen.
You think a guy taken in the mid/late fourth or after next year would get early down work over Johnson who's been in the system for a year? I'm not really familiar with next year's class of RBs, but this past year didn't have much talent at the position by the mid third round.I don’t think that’s as high a bar as you think. For finding a guy better than Duke at the early down stuff.
I'm not so sure. Increases the chances they keep Hunt.Love this as a Chubb and Watson owner whew
Or they don't have a GM, and whoever is running the front office is just winging it?You think a guy taken in the mid/late fourth or after next year would get early down work over Johnson who's been in the system for a year? I'm not really familiar with next year's class of RBs, but this past year didn't have much talent at the position by the mid third round.
Looking at semi recent RB NFL trades - Jordan Howard went for a 5th or 6th rounder. Ty Montgomery went for a 7th. Carlos Hyde went for a 5th. Ajayi went for a 4th (after a 1,400 season). Peterson was traded for a 6th. M Lynch was traded for the difference between a 5th and a 6th rounder. So, Houston just gave up more than any team has traded for a RB in the last 3 years. I don't think they'd do that unless they see him as a likely starter, or at least a 1A in a tandem.
What’s not to agree with? It’s reality. In the past you’d see as many as 6-7 day 1 RBs, many of them in the top 10.Don't agree about the bolded - right or wrong, top backs are drafted early. Re-signing them is their issue. I think you're right about the early day three backs though. Even if Duke shows enough to prevent the Texans from drafting a back early they still may take one for him to share with. Especially because in a strong RB class better ones will fall to day three than usual.
For the most part, older backs with vastly different contract situations. For Duke to be considered the starter or 1A in a tandem you’re talking 200+ touches? I’ll go way under that for 2020.You think a guy taken in the mid/late fourth or after next year would get early down work over Johnson who's been in the system for a year? I'm not really familiar with next year's class of RBs, but this past year didn't have much talent at the position by the mid third round.
Looking at semi recent RB NFL trades - Jordan Howard went for a 5th or 6th rounder. Ty Montgomery went for a 7th. Carlos Hyde went for a 5th. Ajayi went for a 4th (after a 1,400 season). Peterson was traded for a 6th. M Lynch was traded for the difference between a 5th and a 6th rounder. So, Houston just gave up more than any team has traded for a RB in the last 3 years. I don't think they'd do that unless they see him as a likely starter, or at least a 1A in a tandem.
Or 1b in a tandem; or as a specialist receiving back, or as a talented piece they that could get on the cheap from a team with a glut at the position.So, Houston just gave up more than any team has traded for a RB in the last 3 years. I don't think they'd do that unless they see him as a likely starter, or at least a 1A in a tandem.
Put Duke Johnson in a James White role and you could have something. What did the Pats give up for someone like Blount as the early down back? Virtually nothing. Plenty of guys out there who can bang between the tackles if you don’t have one of the stud 3 down backs.Or 1b in a tandem; or as a specialist receiving back, or as a talented piece they that could get on the cheap from a team with a glut at the position.
Or they have a GM who doesn’t value draft picks that highly.
One could Imagine a myriad of possibilities why they’d make such a trade.
Exactly.Put Duke Johnson in a James White role and you could have something. What did the Pats give up for someone like Blount as the early down back? Virtually nothing. Plenty of guys out there who can bang between the tackles if you don’t have one of the stud 3 down backs.