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Jarrett Stidham - The Rodney Dangerfield of QBs

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14 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

In any draft from the time turned 38. They had plenty of ability to draft a high profile rookie as a successor to Brady. It’s not like Brady aging snuck up on them. 

They did, and then when he looked the part (Jimmy g) BB wanted to trade Tom Brady. Ownership vetoed that idea, they traded jimmy, and the relationship between Brady/BB was never the same. Brady moves on, they have no cap space and no backup plan, no vet to sign a team friendly deal. I just think they will take a year with stidham while they get their cap in order and add a bunch of young players through the draft. They can still compete in that division with a ham sandwich at qb historically, and BB has had success with pretty much every backup that’s played, so we will see. They’ll see what they have, and make a decision next year. 

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2 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

They did, and then when he looked the part (Jimmy g) BB wanted to trade Tom Brady. Ownership vetoed that idea, they traded jimmy, and the relationship between Brady/BB was never the same. Brady moves on, they have no cap space and no backup plan, no vet to sign a team friendly deal. I just think they will take a year with stidham while they get their cap in order and add a bunch of young players through the draft. They can still compete in that division with a ham sandwich at qb historically, and BB has had success with pretty much every backup that’s played, so we will see. They’ll see what they have, and make a decision next year. 

The stuff in the middle is extrapolation on your part. They had enough cap space to bring in a free agent QB and chose not to. Stidham could very easily have been Plan A this year. They didn’t even try to bring Brady back. Yet in your mind they were forced into this situation and had no plan. 

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4 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

The stuff in the middle is extrapolation on your part. They had enough cap space to bring in a free agent QB and chose not to. Stidham could very easily have been Plan A this year. They didn’t even try to bring Brady back. Yet in your mind they were forced into this situation and had no plan. 

I disagree on the cap space. There isn’t a clear path to make what would be needed to sign someone like Teddy B, without decimating another area of the team. Time will tell. 

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30 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

They could have traded up. apparently that's a possibility this year and they had practically the same arsenal of picks last year 

But if we assume they knew it was Brady’s last year wouldn’t they have wanted to draft as much talent that could help them win with him? If they loved Stidham why wait until the end of Round 4 when some one else could have beat them to him.

I think there’s a lot of speculation and rumors being pass off as fact in this thread. 

For the last time - and then I’ll bow out - I’m not saying Stidham will not be good and I certainly don’t think the Pats will be bad next year - but I just find it funny that some people see it as a ludicrous proposition that he may not be good. I wouldn’t be shocked if he puts up 4,000 yards and 28 TDs but I also wouldn’t be shocked if he struggles and Hoyer gets into some games.

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20 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

I disagree on the cap space. There isn’t a clear path to make what would be needed to sign someone like Teddy B, without decimating another area of the team. Time will tell. 

I am repeating myself, but they had the cap space. Instead of going after a FA QB, they used the cap space to franchise a guard for almost $15 million and resign a safety to a $13.5 million a year deal. They could very easily have found cheaper options at those positions as free agents or in the draft. Everyone knows you can’t win without a QB. If things were as dire as people in here are making it, then NE certainly would have opted to go for a free agent QB instead of doing what they did. They were FORCED to play Matt Cassel the year Brady got hurt. They are CHOOSING to go with Stidham with Brady leaving. Big difference. They still could make a splash in the draft, but that would be surprising. 

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

But if we assume they knew it was Brady’s last year wouldn’t they have wanted to draft as much talent that could help them win with him? If they loved Stidham why wait until the end of Round 4 when some one else could have beat them to him.

I think there’s a lot of speculation and rumors being pass off as fact in this thread. 

For the last time - and then I’ll bow out - I’m not saying Stidham will not be good and I certainly don’t think the Pats will be bad next year - but I just find it funny that some people see it as a ludicrous proposition that he may not be good. I wouldn’t be shocked if he puts up 4,000 yards and 28 TDs but I also wouldn’t be shocked if he struggles and Hoyer gets into some games.

As far as the first part of this post . . . which member of the Boston sports media are you? Because this is the same rhetoric that has been on the Boston airwaves for years. People wanted NE to jump up to the top of the draft, make a big trade, or sign a big name free agent.

Not to sound condescending, but I am pretty sure BB is good at his job and can evaluate players on his team. In fact, his is realistically THE ONLY opinion that matters on Stidham. If he thinks Stidham is ready, then he probably is. 

There is certainly risk in riding with Stidham. He could stumble out of the gate. He could make poor decisions. It could take him time to develop. But let’s not forget that there was likely just as much risk or greater in sticking with Brady. I get the sentiment to have kept Brady around, but guaranteeing $50 million to a 43 year old is not a great bet and would have been a poor business decision. 

NE was not going to be a SB contender this year even if they kept Brady, so there wasn’t much point in keeping him around just to over pay him. Similarly, Bill can read charts and spreadsheets just like the rest of us, and he can see that teams that have paid out big money to QBs HAVE NOT been winning titles. It’s been teams that have QBs on their low dollar rookie deals. Yes, that would also apply to a QB could draft this year. But adding someone like Newton and Winston at market rate would not have helped the over roster given their cost. 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

As far as the first part of this post . . . which member of the Boston sports media are you? Because this is the same rhetoric that has been on the Boston airwaves for years. People wanted NE to jump up to the top of the draft, make a big trade, or sign a big name free agent.

WTF? You’re not even making any sense. Where did I say any of that?

Maybe this topic is too personal for you because you’re all over the place and can’t even understand context.

I’m done. 

Edited by Dr. Octopus

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

WTF? You’re not even making any sense. Where did I say any of that?

Maybe this topic is too personal for you because you’re all over the place and can’t even understand context.

I’m done. 

I was referring to trying to bringing in the most talent they could at QB. The media here still is relentless in saying the cupboards are bare and everyday they outline all the things they should have done. Whether that be by draft, trade, or free agency. Not sure how I have been all over the place. I have said the same things about six times now. 

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35 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

But if we assume they knew it was Brady’s last year wouldn’t they have wanted to draft as much talent that could help them win with him? If they loved Stidham why wait until the end of Round 4 when some one else could have beat them to him.

I think there’s a lot of speculation and rumors being pass off as fact in this thread. 

For the last time - and then I’ll bow out - I’m not saying Stidham will not be good and I certainly don’t think the Pats will be bad next year - but I just find it funny that some people see it as a ludicrous proposition that he may not be good. I wouldn’t be shocked if he puts up 4,000 yards and 28 TDs but I also wouldn’t be shocked if he struggles and Hoyer gets into some games.

1- Why do GMs make the moves they make? Perhaps they had Stidham graded as a 1st round prospect and knew they could get him later. I won't pretend to know that answer. I don't believe GMs are reactionary... at least the good ones like BB. Why did they wait? it could have been because they knew they could. Why get a guy round 3 you're willing to gamble will be there round 4. certainly we all can relate to fantasy drafts; being high on someone and knowing you can get him a round or 2 later. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. IMO it worked out for the Pats. I think Stidham was high on their board. A bunch of circumstantial stuff to back that up, so not fact, but it's my opinion. 

 

2- I think it's ludicrous that people assume the pats must draft a QB high because all they have is a 4th round 2nd year player. Yeah, stidham could suck, but I strongly doubt it. IMO he has a better chance at being a stud than a bust. I think he will be very good, but that's not a fact, it's a feeling. 

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14 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

1- Why do GMs make the moves they make? Perhaps they had Stidham graded as a 1st round prospect and knew they could get him later. I won't pretend to know that answer. I don't believe GMs are reactionary... at least the good ones like BB. Why did they wait? it could have been because they knew they could. Why get a guy round 3 you're willing to gamble will be there round 4. certainly we all can relate to fantasy drafts; being high on someone and knowing you can get him a round or 2 later. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. IMO it worked out for the Pats. I think Stidham was high on their board. A bunch of circumstantial stuff to back that up, so not fact, but it's my opinion. 

 

2- I think it's ludicrous that people assume the pats must draft a QB high because all they have is a 4th round 2nd year player. Yeah, stidham could suck, but I strongly doubt it. IMO he has a better chance at being a stud than a bust. I think he will be very good, but that's not a fact, it's a feeling. 

The NFL draft is nothing like a fantasy football draft - especially when it comes to QBs. Teams don’t play games. I’m not saying they didn’t like Stidham as a prospect and it’s clear they like him now - but I just don’t think their grand plan was that Stidham was the guy they sought out to replace Brady. It has since worked out that way it seems, and there’s nothing to lose by testing it out and waiting for cap relief to come. I’m sure Belichick thinks he can win with Stidham, and I wouldn’t bet against him, but there’s a wide range of possibilities as to what happens this year and next.

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28 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

1- Why do GMs make the moves they make? Perhaps they had Stidham graded as a 1st round prospect and knew they could get him later. I won't pretend to know that answer. I don't believe GMs are reactionary... at least the good ones like BB. Why did they wait? it could have been because they knew they could. Why get a guy round 3 you're willing to gamble will be there round 4. certainly we all can relate to fantasy drafts; being high on someone and knowing you can get him a round or 2 later. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. IMO it worked out for the Pats. I think Stidham was high on their board. A bunch of circumstantial stuff to back that up, so not fact, but it's my opinion. 

 

2- I think it's ludicrous that people assume the pats must draft a QB high because all they have is a 4th round 2nd year player. Yeah, stidham could suck, but I strongly doubt it. IMO he has a better chance at being a stud than a bust. I think he will be very good, but that's not a fact, it's a feeling. 

No one is saying they need to draft a qb. I am saying that Stidham has almost no game experience and didn’t look great in the handful of passes he threw. I’ll even go a step further and say Hoyer could even win the job over him. 

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3 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Not sure how I changed my stance . . . I never gave any indication of what I thought the NE passing offense would look like or what they would do in this thread.

I brought up Mahomes as an example of a team moving on from a QB and bringing in someone else with confidence. That was the part that I would say would be similar in terms of going with an in-house QB as a replacement. So in case I was unclear, the comparison was among the coaches decision-making NOT the actual players.

The NE offense is clearly a work in progress and we don't know who all the players will be on the roster, so it's hard to allocate production to players that aren't even there yet. I have said all along in other threads that the NE offense won't be great, but that I thought the offense might be better than people thought. I caught grief from some people in another thread when I said Stidham might be able to do slightly better with the same cast of mediocre weapons than Brady did last year. Stidham worked a lot with Meyers and would be willing to put in extra work with Harry (something which Brady wasn't all that interested in pursuing last year). 

I don't have time to give this a lot of thought, but I could see Stidham getting in the low 20's for TD's with 10-12 interceptions. Maybe 3,700 passing yards. So something similar to Kyler Murray's passing numbers from last year (without the rushing numbers). I am not sure where that would rank him or which teams would fall behind that range.

While those numbers may not be better in total than Brady's numbers last year, I would guess they won't have him throwing the football anywhere near as much as Brady did. So Stidham might be able to slightly improve over Brady's numbers in terms of QB rating and efficiency. Again, still hard to tell until we see who ends up on the actual roster.

And you should get grief when you say stuff like that and continue to dump on Brady when you know PFF had him ranked 10th overall (in other words he wasn't nearly as bad as you  keep trying to claim he was). Are u really saying you feel Stidham is already a top 10 QB? Based on what? Teammates pumping his tires? 

And when you say crap like "NE defenders have started coming out saying that Stidham had carved them up in practice last year. Mind you, this is the same defense that TB12 said he couldn't move the ball against."    Ya ok, Tom couldn't move the ball but Jarrett was carvin em up I tell ya...  

And "I don't think it would be out of the question to at least wonder if BB gave some consideration to play Stidham LAST YEAR (or if he was told he couldn't)."         If you already believe based on almost nothing that Stidham is already a  top nfl qb its not out of the question. As ive said previously I really like Stidham, I think he could be pretty darn good, however the over the top he is already better than brady bs? Not so much; I wonder how much of it goes back to u being on the wrong side of the brady-bledsoe debate perhaps?

Did I mention that i like Stidham......

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

No one is saying they need to draft a qb. I am saying that Stidham has almost no game experience and didn’t look great in the handful of passes he threw. I’ll even go a step further and say Hoyer could even win the job over him. 

Which do you think is more important? The few snaps he played at the end of a blowout? Or the countless snaps he took across OTAs, training camp, and regular season practice? 

NE CUT Hoyer in favor of Stidham last year. Did Stidham get worse having a full year in the system, while Hoyer improved on his 7th team last year (and is turning 35)?

No matter how Stidham did in his 4 attempts last year would have no bearing on his outlook for this year. Way too small of a sample size.

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2 minutes ago, NE_REVIVAL said:

And you should get grief when you say stuff like that and continue to dump on Brady when you know PFF had him ranked 10th overall (in other words he wasn't nearly as bad as you  keep trying to claim he was). Are u really saying you feel Stidham is already a top 10 QB? Based on what? Teammates pumping his tires? 

And when you say crap like "NE defenders have started coming out saying that Stidham had carved them up in practice last year. Mind you, this is the same defense that TB12 said he couldn't move the ball against."    Ya ok, Tom couldn't move the ball but Jarrett was carvin em up I tell ya...  

And "I don't think it would be out of the question to at least wonder if BB gave some consideration to play Stidham LAST YEAR (or if he was told he couldn't)."         If you already believe based on almost nothing that Stidham is already a  top nfl qb its not out of the question. As ive said previously I really like Stidham, I think he could be pretty darn good, however the over the top he is already better than brady bs? Not so much; I wonder how much of it goes back to u being on the wrong side of the brady-bledsoe debate perhaps?

Did I mention that i like Stidham......

 

 

BB seemed ready to move on from Brady in 2017. Why would it be that crazy to think BB would not have considered it last year? Brady was banged up. Over the second half of the season, the OL was excellent. Some plays he had 8 seconds to throw, so it’s not like he was under constant duress. 

I never said Stidham was better than Brady, only that he might be able to work better with some of the receiving options that Brady was not all that enthused in working with. Stidham worked great with Meyers. Brady didn’t trust him and usually looked to other targets. Brady also said it was not his job to develop Harry. Stidham likely worked more with Harry than Brady did. 

And if you read more of what I wrote, having injured players returning and better health of the offense as a whole would also lead to the offense potentially doing better. So sure, if that means a I think Stidham is better than Brady is, have at it. 

No one really knows what the secret sauce is in PFF’s rating system. However, I believe they value retaining possession and avoiding sacks pretty highly. So throwing the ball away or into the dirt will be a positive compared to other options. While that makes sense, it definitely seemed like Brady had a ton of plays where he just got rid of the ball, way more than in most years. Without rewatching every play, it would be hard to tell if there were receivers in position to receive the ball. 

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Posted (edited)

The Pats did not have good weapons last year...they had a banged up Edelman and steady James White and that was it and because they lacked weapons teams were really able to focus on those two (especially in White's case)...looking at the position groups...TE was an embarrassment, that was my biggest beef with BB because this was so easy to see coming...the O line was one of the lesser units they had in awhile...the glue of the line (Andrews) was hurt, while letting Trent Brown leave was the right thing to do Wynn's injury turned this position into a disaster for a good stretch and while he came back and looks to have a good future it was a step back from Brown, Mason did not play as well as he did in 2018 and Cannon took a big step backwards (Thuney was a stud)...at RB Michel was average at best, Burkhead was his usual banged up self and unfortunately Damien Harris was MIA...at WR Meyers looks like he has a future but was in over his head, Harry's injury (and Brady having no patience) made last year a redshirt year, Sanu got banged up quickly and pretty much disappeared, Dorsett is a journeyman...under no condition was this an offense with good weapons...that being said I do believe Brady took a step backwards last year...not a big one but a noticeable one...one where he could no longer carry the offense...combine that with what was around him and the offense was pretty painful to watch last year...regardless of how good Stidham (or whoever is at QB) is this offense needs a lot of work and if they don't hit this draft hard and have Harry and Meyers step up (and possibly Cajuste and Froholdt) it could be another year of struggling on that side of the ball.

Edited by Boston

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11 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:


NE CUT Hoyer in favor of Stidham last year. Did Stidham get worse having a full year in the system, while Hoyer improved on his 7th team last year (and is turning 35)?

I do not believe that Hoyer will beat out Stidham this year, but what happened last year is mostly meaningless.

The Pats used a 4th round pick on Stidham, Why would they cut him in order to keep a 35 year old journeyman, when they had Brady, a guy who never misses games starting? It would only make sense to keep the rookie that they liked even if Hoyer had a slightly better preseason/camp (and I'm not saying Hoyer did just furthering the point). 

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Combining the 2019 quarterback class with 2020 prospects

Excerpt:

Quote

10. Jarrett Stidham, Auburn (2019)

I still maintain that Stidham has all the talent to be a successful quarterback in the NFL, and graded out as my QB5 in the 2019 quarterback class. He was miscast at Auburn and never seemed to fit in, despite having lots of talent around him. He needed to improve his poise in the pocket under pressure and his progression speed. Keep in mind, he had the advantage of learning from one of the best in Tom Brady. I put a third-round grade on Stidham, as I’m a believer in banking on his talent to shine through at the next level. With the opportunity to start in New England, we’ll see how far Stidham has come.

 

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46 minutes ago, Casting Couch said:

Surprised to see Daniel Jones low at 11, and Haskins high at 4. Otherwise the list looks legit.

Had the same thought 

And I dont think Arizona would trade Murray for Burrows

 

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1 minute ago, Tool said:

Had the same thought 

And I dont think Arizona would trade Murray for Burrows

 

I am sure the list would vary from team to team based on style of play. Murray might be high on the Cardinals list but lower down on the Patriots. Similarly, Stidham could be high on NE's list but not so high on many other teams. As an example, McDaniels traded up for Tebow when he was in DEN. BB may have told Josh to keep his comments to himself on moving up to draft a mobile QB in the future. (To be fair, if BB thought it could help them win he would do it . . . just not sure how in love he is with the thought of a non-traditional pocket passer.)

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6 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I am sure the list would vary from team to team based on style of play. Murray might be high on the Cardinals list but lower down on the Patriots. Similarly, Stidham could be high on NE's list but not so high on many other teams. As an example, McDaniels traded up for Tebow when he was in DEN. BB may have told Josh to keep his comments to himself on moving up to draft a mobile QB in the future. (To be fair, if BB thought it could help them win he would do it . . . just not sure how in love he is with the thought of a non-traditional pocket passer.)

Agreed, Belichick is looking for Brady light, while McDaniels would be more open to a mobile QB like Kyler or Lamar.

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So who is really the Rodney Dangerfield of QBs?  Stidham or Minshew?

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Not sure why people get so flustered when teams play QBs that weren’t first round picks. It’s not like that never happens. 40% of the current projected starters weren’t first round picks.

2 - Brees, Carr, Dalton, Garoppolo, Lock
3 - Wilson
4 - Cousins, Prescott, Stidham
6 - Brady, Minshew, Taylor
7 - Fitzgerald

It wasn’t that long ago that Romo was a starter, and he was in drafted. Sure, there are more first round picks and generally speaking they have a greater success rate, but it’s not like it’s rare for teams to go with later picks.

As far as Stidham goes, I saw more articles suggesting that NE needs to jump on someone in the first round based almost solely on Stidham having limited upside as a fourth rounder. 

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Not sure why people get so flustered when teams play QBs that weren’t first round picks. It’s not like that never happens. 40% of the current projected starters weren’t first round picks.

2 - Brees, Carr, Dalton, Garoppolo, Lock
3 - Wilson
4 - Cousins, Prescott, Stidham
6 - Brady, Minshew, Taylor
7 - Fitzgerald

It wasn’t that long ago that Romo was a starter, and he was in drafted. Sure, there are more first round picks and generally speaking they have a greater success rate, but it’s not like it’s rare for teams to go with later picks.

As far as Stidham goes, I saw more articles suggesting that NE needs to jump on someone in the first round based almost solely on Stidham having limited upside as a fourth rounder. 

I really think you are missing the point with what many people are saying...usually when a lower-round pick with little to no track record wins the job they have beaten out someone projected to be ahead of them...Brady/Bledsoe, Romo/Bedsoe, Wilson/Flynn, Minshew/Foles, Cousins/RG3, Lock/Flacco, Prescott/Romo are all examples off of the top of my head and many happened in-season ...Stidham is different (Jimmy G is a little similar in San Fran but he looked very good during Brady's suspension) because when you look at it from a big picture you have a complete unknown (who was not drafted high like a Mahomes) as far any actually NFL game experience taking over for the greatest QB in NFL history without any competition (at least right now)...this is a pretty unique situation and I think it makes perfect since for many to have their doubts...the x-factor is it is BB doing this and because of this there is a comfort-level (at least with Patriot fans) that it will work out.

Edited by Boston
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45 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Not sure why people get so flustered when teams play QBs that weren’t first round picks. It’s not like that never happens. 40% of the current projected starters weren’t first round picks.

2 - Brees, Carr, Dalton, Garoppolo, Lock
3 - Wilson
4 - Cousins, Prescott, Stidham
6 - Brady, Minshew, Taylor
7 - Fitzgerald

It wasn’t that long ago that Romo was a starter, and he was in drafted. Sure, there are more first round picks and generally speaking they have a greater success rate, but it’s not like it’s rare for teams to go with later picks.

As far as Stidham goes, I saw more articles suggesting that NE needs to jump on someone in the first round based almost solely on Stidham having limited upside as a fourth rounder. 

Because generally speaking late round QBs are wasted picks.

Brees, Carr, Dalton and Lock were all early second so I don't think we should differentiate them so much from first round picks.

Of course there are outliers - but outside of Brady those 6th and 7th round picks aren't exactly selling points (none are long term starters). Stidham is in a pretty nice group there admittedly.

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10 minutes ago, Boston said:

I really think you are missing the point with what many people are saying...usually when a lower-round pick with little to no track record wins the job they have beaten out someone projected to be ahead of them...Brady/Bledsoe, Romo/Bedsoe, Wilson/Flynn, Minshew/Foles, Cousins/RG3, Lock/Flacco, Prescott/Romo are all examples off of the top of my head and many happened in-season ...Stidham is different (Jimmy G is a little similar in San Fran but he looked very good during Brady's suspension) because when you look at it from a big picture you have a complete unknown (who was not drafted high like a Mahomes) as far any actually NFL game experience taking over for the greatest QB in NFL history without any competition (at least right now)...this is a pretty unique situation and I think it makes perfect since for many to have their doubts...the x-factor is it is BB doing this and because of this there is a comfort-level (at least with Patriot fans) that it will work out.

Good post.

David acts like everyone is saying Stidham has no chance and/or he sucks. I would probably lean more to trusting in Bill and the Pats organization and thinking he'll be at least moderately successful. However it's a little silly to question people that question him. He surely has risk and there's a much greater than zero percent chance that he fails.

If I had to bet, I'd guess he's at worst adequate and "leads"  the Pats to a 9-7, 10-6 record but would need pretty good odds to bet he's in the top half of QBs in the league.

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7 minutes ago, Boston said:

I really think you are missing the point with what many people are saying...usually when a lower-round pick with little to no track record wins the job they have beaten out someone projected to be ahead of them...Brady/Bledsoe, Romo/Bedsoe, Wilson/Flynn, Minshew/Foles, Cousins/RG3, Lock/Flacco, Prescott/Romo are all examples off of the top of my head and many happened in-season ...Stidham is different (Jimmy G is a little similar in San Fran but he looked very good during Brady's suspension) because when you look at it from a big picture you have a complete unknown (who was not drafted high like a Mahomes) as far any actually NFL game experience taking over for the greatest QB in NFL history without any competition (at least right now)...this is a pretty unique situation and I think it makes perfect since for many to have their doubts...the x-factor is it is BB doing this and because of this there is a comfort-level (at least with Patriot fans) that it will work out.

Any sane person would take the UNDER on whomever replaced Brady in terms of career outlook when trying to be held to Brady’s success. Is Stidham more unproven then most replacement QBs? Clearly yes. My point in listing off who else in the league teams have as starters was to show that not every team has a top five pick at QB. Go read any article or mock draft involving NE and their main knocks on Stidham are his lack of first round pedigree and his Pick 6 against the Jets. Because if that, many drafts have NE moving up to draft a QB and sending off a boatload if picks and some players to get one. Others have them staying put and taking a QB (usually a player that probably won’t make it to them).

I somewhat disagree with Garoppolo. Sure, he looked good in six quarters of play. Not sure that really showed a track record of success. People somehow tend to ignore what coaches think of players after countless practices. That should count for way more than how a guy did in four passes in a blowout it six quarters as a fill in. 

I also somewhat disagree and would argue that Stidham DID beat someone to win the job . . . Brady. If BB really wanted Brady, we would still be the QB in NE. As already discussed, it is probably a wise decision not to guarantee $50 million to a 43 year old QB on a team that has several other holes to fill. 

That doesn’t mean Stidham will be good, bad, or indifferent. But that tells me that BB has decided he is worth a shot (at least as of today). I am also pretty confident that BB would like nothing more than to show everyone he can take a lesser known  QB and be just as successful. 

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Good post.

David acts like everyone is saying Stidham has no chance and/or he sucks. I would probably lean more to trusting in Bill and the Pats organization and thinking he'll be at least moderately successful. However it's a little silly to question people that question him. He surely has risk and there's a much greater than zero percent chance that he fails.

If I had to bet, I'd guess he's at worst adequate and "leads"  the Pats to a 9-7, 10-6 record but would need pretty good odds to bet he's in the top half of QBs in the league.

I am not far off in any of the opinions expressed in this thread. If things work out this year for NE, Stidham would be middle of the road, he shows some promise, they get some new guys in there with potential, and the defense remains solid. I already said they on paper would be an 8-8 team but with better coaching they could net 9 or 10 wins. 

However, that would probably be a similar prognosis if they kept Brady. I think Brady will drop off some, and we saw last year how they looked with him and the mixed bag assortment of offensive players. They were going to have a down year this year either way. 

With Stidham, I think he can get 3500-3700 yards, 20-22 TD, and 10-12 INT. Where that falls in the hierarchy of QBs who knows. 

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Add Ian Rapoport to the group of Stidham non-believers. He sees NE moving up and taking a QB with a premium pick. He also sees Hoyer as the 2020 starter.

LINK

The reason I don't think this will be the case is that it essentially is suggesting NE had no real plan or option other than Brady, and that NE only really started worrying about it once Brady signed with Tampa Bay. That does not seem like something BB would to or a situation he would get himself in. Similarly, if they weren't going to play Stidham, one would think they would have made a much greater effort to sign a FA QB instead of Hoyer. As I pointed out previously, NE had the cap room when the new season rolled over. They just chose to use it at other positions.

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If Hoyer is the QB and there are a few key injuries they will be in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes.

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6 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Add Ian Rapoport to the group of Stidham non-believers. He sees NE moving up and taking a QB with a premium pick. He also sees Hoyer as the 2020 starter.

LINK

The reason I don't think this will be the case is that it essentially is suggesting NE had no real plan or option other than Brady, and that NE only really started worrying about it once Brady signed with Tampa Bay. That does not seem like something BB would to or a situation he would get himself in. Similarly, if they weren't going to play Stidham, one would think they would have made a much greater effort to sign a FA QB instead of Hoyer. As I pointed out previously, NE had the cap room when the new season rolled over. They just chose to use it at other positions.

Well the good news for you is that Rapport is almost always wrong about everything he "reports".

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3 hours ago, Boston said:

If Hoyer is the QB and there are a few key injuries they will be in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes.

Pretty unlikely. Hoyer’s not bad

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, Tool said:

Pretty unlikely. Hoyer’s not bad

He 's a 34 year-old (mostly) career back-up who has been cut twice in less then a year and one was by the Patriots.

Edited by Boston

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1 hour ago, Boston said:

He 's a 34 year-old (mostly) career back-up who has been cut twice in less then a year and one was by the Patriots.

Come on man they're not going to have the worst record in the league, that's ridiculous. Who cares that he was cut.

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13 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

That doesn’t mean Stidham will be good, bad, or indifferent. But that tells me that BB has decided he is worth a shot (at least as of today).

This is the key point in all of this. We live in a world of probabilities and possibilities. I fully expect BB has doubts about Stidham and he is fully aware of the plenitude of possible outcomes.  The current QB situation in NE does not mean BB is closed to other possibilities. We can be certain of one thing, the risk of rolling with Stidham in 2020 has thus far been preferable to all other opportunities (given the context at the time those opportunities were not taken with no benefit of hindsight).

If no QB is added in the draft, and no viable veteran QB is added, it further reveals the level of confidence BB has in Stidham, but again, only so much as the available opportunities not taken.

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22 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Not sure why people get so flustered when teams play QBs that weren’t first round picks. It’s not like that never happens. 40% of the current projected starters weren’t first round picks.

2 - Brees, Carr, Dalton, Garoppolo, Lock
3 - Wilson
4 - Cousins, Prescott, Stidham
6 - Brady, Minshew, Taylor
7 - Fitzgerald

It wasn’t that long ago that Romo was a starter, and he was in drafted. Sure, there are more first round picks and generally speaking they have a greater success rate, but it’s not like it’s rare for teams to go with later picks.

As far as Stidham goes, I saw more articles suggesting that NE needs to jump on someone in the first round based almost solely on Stidham having limited upside as a fourth rounder. 

Comparing 1st rounders to 2nd+ rounders doesn't work the way you're doing it. The populations don't match up. There's about 6 times as many qbs selected in rounds 2-7. 

Anyway you slice this, it's unlikely Stidham is a good quarterback.

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What's interesting to me is that veteran guys like Ben Watson and the McCourty brothers are all saying that they think Stidham will be pretty good based on what they've seen from him in meetings and practices. That counts for something in my book.

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13 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Comparing 1st rounders to 2nd+ rounders doesn't work the way you're doing it. The populations don't match up. There's about 6 times as many qbs selected in rounds 2-7. 

Anyway you slice this, it's unlikely Stidham is a good quarterback.

I did not bring up the hit rate percentages. First round drafted QBs probably work out 40-50% of the time. I would approximate that gets sliced in half by each subsequent round. But teams still find playable QBs from various points in the draft. 

None of us knows if Stidham will be a good QB. But if he was originally rated as a five star QB and projected to be a first round pick, wouldn’t that make him more likely to succeed than a guy rated as a 4th round pick all along and drafted in the 4th round?

NE won the lottery with Brady in the 6th round. They drafted Matt Cassel in the 7th round and he didn’t even start a game at USC. In 2008, he started his first game in 8 years and NE won 11 games that year. They drafted Jimmy Garoppolo with the 62nd pick I that draft. He just played in the SB. NE may be horrible at drafting WR, but things have worked out pretty well drafting QBs. 

Again, none of us knows how Stidham will do, but a vote of confidence from BB should mean a lot. And before people point out all the differences with those other QBs on other NE teams, absolutely those teams had better talent on offense than the current one does. 

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QB's drafted by BB:

2000, Round 6, Pick 199: Tom Brady, Michigan
2002, Round 4, Pick 117: Rohan Davey, LSU
2003, Round 6, Pick 201: Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech
2005, Round 7, Pick 205: Matt Cassel, USC
2008, Round 3, Pick 94: Kevin O'Connell, San Diego State
2010, Round 7, Pick 250: Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State
2011, Round 3, Pick 74: Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
2014, Round 2, Pick 64: Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
2016, Round 3, Pick 91: Jacoby Brissett, North Carolina State
2018, Round 7, Pick 219: Danny Etling, LSU
2019, Round 4, Pick 133: Jarrett Stidham, Auburn

 

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46 minutes ago, Boston said:

QB's drafted by BB:

2000, Round 6, Pick 199: Tom Brady, Michigan
2002, Round 4, Pick 117: Rohan Davey, LSU
2003, Round 6, Pick 201: Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech
2005, Round 7, Pick 205: Matt Cassel, USC
2008, Round 3, Pick 94: Kevin O'Connell, San Diego State
2010, Round 7, Pick 250: Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State
2011, Round 3, Pick 74: Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
2014, Round 2, Pick 64: Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
2016, Round 3, Pick 91: Jacoby Brissett, North Carolina State
2018, Round 7, Pick 219: Danny Etling, LSU
2019, Round 4, Pick 133: Jarrett Stidham, Auburn

On the surface, that looks like a mixed bag, but for many, many years they weren't even looking to draft a starter. They had Brady almost that entire time and were usually only in the QB market for a backup. They got more than they invested in Cassel (who made the playoffs and a Pro Bowl with KC). Garoppolo looked the part in NE and has done well in SF so far. Brissett ended up starting in IND (although that certainly was not the Colts plan). 

Total NFL regular season starts:
Brady - 283
Cassel - 81
Brissett - 32
Garoppolo - 26
Mallett - 8

In that time, first round picks used on QB by team:

4 - CLE, WAS
3 - BUF, DEN, JAX, NYJ, TEN, BAL
2 - ATL, ARI, CHI, DET, HOU, MIN, NYG, LAR, WAS
1 - CAR, CIN, GB, IND, KC, LAC, MIA, PHI, PIT, OAK, SF
0 - DAL, NE, NO, SEA

Yeah, I get it. They didn't really need a capable QB because they had Brady. But even though that drafting record looks spotty (and they used 0 first round picks), here is a list by team of all QBs drafted in that time that went on to start 25 or more NFL regular season games:

4 - BAL, JAX, NE, NYJ
3 - ATL, BUF, CHI, CLE, DEN, LAR, MIN, WAS
2 - CIN, DAL, DET, HOU, LAC, MIA, OAK, PHI, SF, TB, TEN
1 - ARI, CAR, GB, IND, KC, NYG, NO, PIT, SEA

Twenty-five games doesn't sound like that high a threshold . . . but that is really hard to get to in terms of being an NFL starting QB. Not even being in the market for a QB, the Patriots tied for the most QB's to get 25 starts. So I would count DRAFTING QBs as a decent strength for New England.

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9 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I did not bring up the hit rate percentages. First round drafted QBs probably work out 40-50% of the time. I would approximate that gets sliced in half by each subsequent round. But teams still find playable QBs from various points in the draft. 

None of us knows if Stidham will be a good QB. But if he was originally rated as a five star QB and projected to be a first round pick, wouldn’t that make him more likely to succeed than a guy rated as a 4th round pick all along and drafted in the 4th round?

NE won the lottery with Brady in the 6th round. They drafted Matt Cassel in the 7th round and he didn’t even start a game at USC. In 2008, he started his first game in 8 years and NE won 11 games that year. They drafted Jimmy Garoppolo with the 62nd pick I that draft. He just played in the SB. NE may be horrible at drafting WR, but things have worked out pretty well drafting QBs. 

Again, none of us knows how Stidham will do, but a vote of confidence from BB should mean a lot. And before people point out all the differences with those other QBs on other NE teams, absolutely those teams had better talent on offense than the current one does. 

BB is the best tactician the NFL has seen, that's offense and defense. It's amazing what he's done over the years with his personnel. But he's overrated as a rookie evaluator, just look at the receivers he's drafted. He's more rumpelstiltskin than nostradomus. Like@Boston points out above, looks like BB's track record with drafting QBs is about the same as the rest of the NFL. Most of them doing significantly worse when they left New England.

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1 minute ago, cloppbeast said:

BB is the best tactician the NFL has seen, that's offense and defense. It's amazing what he's done over the years with his personnel. But he's overrated as a rookie evaluator, just look at the receivers he's drafted. He's more rumpelstiltskin than nostradomus. Like@Boston points out above, looks like BB's track record with drafting QBs is about the same as the rest of the NFL. Most of them doing significantly worse when they left New England.

Apparently you did not read a word I posted on their QB drafting success. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Apparently you did not read a word I posted on their QB drafting success. 

I did but wasn't convinced.

You have explained every data point in formulating a theory BB is a QB whisperer. But a sample of 12 with a high standard deviation does not invoke much confidence. We dont have enough data to accept the hypothesis.

Edited by cloppbeast
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BB hitting on 5 out of 11 late (pick #64 or later) QBs is an awesome rate. 

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11 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Apparently you did not read a word I posted on their QB drafting success. 

I think there’s something to be said for the fact that they were able to draft these guys and let them sit and learn as well. Stidham has the opportunity to be a good qb, and is likely a lot better than most people give him credit for. I agree he’s worth taking a look at. I just disagree on how they got here, especially with your comparison to Mahomes/smith. 
I think we can agree that faced with their cap situation, it would have taken work to get money to resign TB or any other decent FA. So what do you do- cut a few good players and let Thuney go so you can have 1-2 more years of Tom Brady? It made sense to keep the younger pieces and give the kid a shot. Next year they’ll have some cap relief, and either a decent young qb or a high draft pick. It may have been the plan, but not necessarily because we’ll be calling him studham and BB is a genius. It’s the hand they have, so it’s the hand they’re playing. 

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Edgar said:

BB hitting on 5 out of 11 late (pick #64 or later) QBs is an awesome rate. 

We are debating whether Stidham will be competent starting QB in the NFL. Sorry, but 5 out 11 of BB's selections do not fit this description. 

If we are instead debating whether Stidham can be a journeyman back up, I say there's a good chance.

Edited by cloppbeast

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30 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

We are debating whether Stidham will be competent starting QB in the NFL. Sorry, but 5 out 11 of BB's selections do not fit this description. 

If we are instead debating whether Stidham can be a journeyman back up, I say there's a good chance.

By your numbers, there’s better than a 50% chance he becomes a competent starter. That’s pretty solid chance considering all those guys were drafted to be backups, this guy actually gets a starting job, so I feel like those chances go up even more. How many of those draft picks never played because TB didn’t miss time? Not to mention one of those guys is also an nfl coach now, not that it really matters for the conversation. You can argue that of the qbs that actually got starts the only bust is Ryan mallet. The random 6/7th rounders thst never made it out of camp never had an opportunity.

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8 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

By your numbers, there’s better than a 50% chance he becomes a competent starter. 

Those aren't my numbers. I got 1 of them being a competent starter, and the jury is still a little out on Jimmy G. But I'll give it to you. So that's 1/11 or less than 10%. 

The other 10 never even got a chance, or were quickly replaced because they were/are NFL backups not competent starters.

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Posted (edited)

I watched him alot at auburn

Have fun with your 6 win team this year pats

Edited by need2know
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