OTC at the 7th turn: Help me save my draft! (1 Viewer)

PPR 12 team redraft.  Starts QB/RB/2WR/TE/2FLEX/K/2IDP 

At the clock at 7.11 and need to pick soon!

My team so far:
QB: D. Watson
RB: D. Johnson , D. Freeman
WR: J. Jones, DJ Moore (KR)
TE: G. Kittle

I was very happy with how my draft as rolling along.  Grabbing good value that was dropping to me until the 6th when I somehow convinced myself that a QB run was coming, and with 22 slots between picks, I wanted to get ahead of it and took Watson.  I thought one of 5 players I liked about equally would drop to my next pick making the Watson pick a bonus.  None of that happened.  QB run didn't come (only two more QBs taken) and all my others guys are off the board.

So there are a lot of guys I kinda like above their ADP but it is a bit of a mess here.  On the poll are the best options I see the board with a bit of my commentary below.  Please pick your top two (as I'm up at 7.11 and back at 8.2).

RBs
L. Murray: May have a good role but may be a JAG only has injury upside.  Then again, RBs around here tend to only have injury upside.
R. Freeman: May carve out bigger role and may be the best player of the bunch here.  Still likely needs Linsday to go down to be startle.
B. Barber: Usually underrated, although kinda a JAG, and he is now the starting RB in a Bruce Arians offense. 

WRs
S. Watkins: Great talent and finally healthy but a lot of competition for targets.  I do like to grab pieces of dynamic offenses, however.
K. Coutee: I know he's already hurt but not bad.  He will have a good role but his upside may be limited especially with Duke in town to grab some underneath stuff.
G. Allison: Could be getting a lot of targets from Rogers and fill the Cobb roll.  He was having a great year last year until injury.
M. Valdez-Scantling: May be the #2 to Rodgers which has a lot of value but Rodgers froze him out last year.  Will that continue?

TEs
A. Hooper: Solid TE but may not have tons of upside.  Can start two TEs (with a bit of a scoring bump) but still seems early for him.
M. Andrews: Like what I'm hearing out of camp for him being Jackson's go to target but this seems real early for him.
 

Thanks for the help! 

I would go with MVS and Coutee.

curvelo13 said:

I would go with MVS and Coutee.

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Thanks for the input.

I was leaning Murray and Watkins, but entirely 

I can answer for you, but then again I'm the guy who told you I'd take Watson.  

Watkins seems the easy answer for 7th round.  You only have to start one RB and you've already got a serviceable backup and possible flex starter to Johnson at RB.

Current ADP on Watkins is 79 (The highest ADP of the players you listed)  It both fills a value and is going higher than you are taking him (though not by much)

I'm high on Andrews this year.  It might be a round too early for him, but he's going to be somebody I reach a little bit for because I just think he's going to be Jackson's Ace in the hole and I don't want to miss out on him.  Since you have Kittle you could probably take that chance and let him drop another round or so but it depends on if you really want him on your team.

jmble said:

I can answer for you, but then again I'm the guy who told you I'd take Watson.  

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Ha! I'm still hoping it works out but right after I drafted, I read Dodd's new article and in it he said, "drafting Watson... is among the worst mistakes you can do in a draft this year." 

jmble said:

Watkins seems the easy answer for 7th round.  You only have to start one RB and you've already got a serviceable backup and possible flex starter to Johnson at RB.

Current ADP on Watkins is 79 (The highest ADP of the players you listed)  It both fills a value and is going higher than you are taking him (though not by much)

I'm high on Andrews this year.  It might be a round too early for him, but he's going to be somebody I reach a little bit for because I just think he's going to be Jackson's Ace in the hole and I don't want to miss out on him.  Since you have Kittle you could probably take that chance and let him drop another round or so but it depends on if you really want him on your team.

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If you think Watkins is the pick at 7.11, who would you take after the turn at 8.02?

By the way, I know ADP isn't everything, but it is something to look at.

Your ninth round pick will be pick 107.

Looking at the guys you listed, Murray is going around pick 95, Freeman - 103, Barber - Undrafted, Coutee - 120, Allison - 112, Valdes-Scantling - 113, Hooper -109, and Andrews - 153.

So based on ADP, All but Murray and Freeman will still be around come pick 107.  Obviously it won't fall exactly like this but there's a good chance at least a couple of those six players will still be on the board when you pick again.

jmble said:

By the way, I know ADP isn't everything, but it is something to look at.

Your ninth round pick will be pick 107.

Looking at the guys you listed, Murray is going around pick 95, Freeman - 103, Barber - Undrafted, Coutee - 120, Allison - 112, Valdes-Scantling - 113, Hooper -109, and Andrews - 153.

So based on ADP, All but Murray and Freeman will still be around come pick 107.  Obviously it won't fall exactly like this but there's a good chance at least a couple of those six players will still be on the board when you pick again.

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Yeah.  I hear you on ADP and I'm liking (as much as I like anybody here) Murray and Freeman as well.

Leaning Murray with the other pick (as I like to get pieces of top offenses) but I think his upside is more capped barring injury as the RB1A on his team (Kamara) in more entrenched than Freeman's (Lindsay).

You have a feeling one way or the other there?

To answer your question, I'd probably take Valdes-Scantling.  I think he's got the highest upside of the remaining receivers listed.  If Rogers stays healthy all year, it won't be a bad thing to have his number 2.  But the difference between him, Coutee, and Allison is not that great.

jmble said:

To answer your question, I'd probably take Valdes-Scantling.  I think he's got the highest upside of the remaining receivers listed.  If Rogers stays healthy all year, it won't be a bad thing to have his number 2.  But the difference between him, Coutee, and Allison is not that great.

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So your saying you would take Watkins and Valdes-Scantling?

If you are leaning towards Murray or Freeman, I think I like Murray better.  even though Kamara killed me last year when I had Ingram, he still put up decent numbers for your third RB.  I'm not sure Murray is as talented as Ingram, but I do think he can be productive enough in that offense.

Avery said:

So your saying you would take Watkins and Valdes-Scantling?

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Yes.  That's what I'm saying.  But I wouldn't be against Murray.  

jmble said:

Yes.  That's what I'm saying.  But I wouldn't be against Murray.  

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Took Watkins at 7.11 and now noodling on Murray vs. Freeman.  They are right next to each other DD one position and one point apart. 

I like MVS but I see more depth at WR for upside guys where RB is getting real thin.

Avery said:

Took Watkins at 7.11 and now noodling on Murray vs. Freeman.  They are right next to each other DD one position and one point apart. 

I like MVS but I see more depth at WR for upside guys where RB is getting real thin.

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Ended with with Watkins and Murray.

Thanks for all the advice!