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How much (if any) do you expect Patrick Mahomes to regress? (1 Viewer)

S

Saboo

Footballguy
We’ve seen time after time a QB to have numbers through the roof one year only for his numbers to take a major nose dive the next season. Mahomes posted 5,097 yards and a total of 52 total td’s. Arguably the greatest single season ever for a fantasy qb...That said there is tape out there on him now in the KC offense that didn’t exist last year and it’s just natural for him to not be able to improve on these monster numbers...Historically “there have been 12 others seasons in which a passer threw 40 or more td’s via the air. None of those previous 12 players threw more touchdown passes the following season, with nine of those 12 players throwing 16 or fewer touchdown passes as an encore” 

With this is mind how do you think Mahomes numbers will compare to last season? Is there a big drop off coming or is he going to be the exception to the rule and equal or top those numbers in the 2019 season? 

If I had to guess I’d say a season of 4,800 yds and say 42 passing td’s and maybe 2 running td’s...Just wondering what others thought and if any other qb is likely to come close to producing the same numbers as Mahomes?

 
Not much, if any.  There obviously are some guys who are one year wonders.  Others are incredible talents that simply have an extraordinary alignment of the stars.  And then there are others who are just different.  Mahomes is that.  You can scheme only to an extent, but the way he processes information with the physical skills and creativity...and the talent in front of him...and the wide open canvas Reid offers...I don’t see a regression.  5000/50 will be the norm with this guy.  Some years a little more, others a little less.

Generational.

 
I expect a significant regression. Brady and Manning each threw for 50+ TDs Brady never threw more than 39, Manning tossed 40+ but never got back to the 50+ number.BOTH are 'generational' , what ever that means ^^.  LT2 never approached 2k rush yards , neither did cj2k, so it's not just QBs.

looking at many sites, many math people ( C. Frelund is just one) , are forecasting 4500 yards, 35-37 TDs.  so, you can get those same numbers 11 rounds later when you select J. Goff, and you don't need to spend the high capital you would need to spend to draft Mahomes. 

I'm not just a firm believer in stats falling back to norms after historic seasons, but I'm looking at the KC roster - they really don't have a great RB situation. is it DW or DT who'll be the starter? opposing def coordinators have been laser-focused on stopping Mahomes. without a solid run game , defenses will load the box, take out Mahomes run lanes, and force him to pass. 

KC plays the 5th toughest schedule for 2019, and the single toughest schedule for the final 8 weeks of the season, and of course , that includes the fantasy playoff season.

 
Tanner9919 said:
I'm not just a firm believer in stats falling back to norms after historic seasons, but I'm looking at the KC roster - they really don't have a great RB situation. is it DW or DT who'll be the starter?
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Sounds like lots of passes coming then, although it seems any RB can be pretty effective in that offense.

opposing def coordinators have been laser-focused on stopping Mahomes. without a solid run game , defenses will load the box, take out Mahomes run lanes, and force him to pass. 
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Do you think Mahomes was benefiting from teams stacking the box in anticipation of the run last season? It was the opposite, any old RB seems to work there right now because defenses are terrified of all that speed running downfield to catch balls from Mahomes. 

KC plays the 5th toughest schedule for 2019, and the single toughest schedule for the final 8 weeks of the season, and of course , that includes the fantasy playoff season.
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Judging SOS before the season starts is a fool's errand imo. They do play the Chargers D twice after the date Derwin James is supposed to return, which is a slight concern...but you don't bench a guy like Mahomes because of the defenses he's facing unless you've got another top-5 QB or you're very ballsy. He's plug and play, as much as any other QB at least. 

Note: I'm not saying all of this because I'm predicting no regression or because I think he's bound to repeat 5000/50. I own him in a league, but I'm realistic. I'm just saying that the arguments you've laid out aren't compelling ones imo. 

 
Tanner9919 said:
I expect a significant regression. Brady and Manning each threw for 50+ TDs Brady never threw more than 39, Manning tossed 40+ but never got back to the 50+ number.BOTH are 'generational' , what ever that means ^^.  LT2 never approached 2k rush yards , neither did cj2k, so it's not just QBs.

looking at many sites, many math people ( C. Frelund is just one) , are forecasting 4500 yards, 35-37 TDs.  so, you can get those same numbers 11 rounds later when you select J. Goff, and you don't need to spend the high capital you would need to spend to draft Mahomes. 

I'm not just a firm believer in stats falling back to norms after historic seasons, but I'm looking at the KC roster - they really don't have a great RB situation. is it DW or DT who'll be the starter? opposing def coordinators have been laser-focused on stopping Mahomes. without a solid run game , defenses will load the box, take out Mahomes run lanes, and force him to pass. 

KC plays the 5th toughest schedule for 2019, and the single toughest schedule for the final 8 weeks of the season, and of course , that includes the fantasy playoff season.
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TDs may be a little low there but I wouldn't go in expecting 5000/50 every year.  4800/42 seems about right.  He is phenominal but thinking he is going to put up historic numbers every year is misguided I think.  4800-5000 yards is definitely attainable I just think TDs will not stay around 50 every year.

 
TD’s obviously cannot be sustained. I expect 35-40. What he did last year was amazing but I don’t think thats what he will “be” going forward. He’s good, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t see him being the best QB in the league going forward. I think he’ll finish ~QB5. 

 
I would suggest he has a completely different regression line than other QBs. If he does regress, it will be to 6000 yards and 60+ TDs. So much meat left on the bone.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Vegas put the over/under at 36.5 TDs.

No QB has ever posted a TD % over 8 and not regressed by at least 2%.

ETA: for clarity, TD % went down at least 2%
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I'm taking the over on 36.5.  He'll be over 40 but below 50 I think.  they don't have Hunt anymore.  

he will be right around 5000 yards again though.   QB1 for fantasy.  Drafted too high though.  Won't be on my teams.

 
Only 13 times has a QB thrown for 40 TD's in a season and only Manning, Marino, Brees, and Rodgers have done it more than once. There are reasons why QB's don't have seasons like that very often, which may or may not have anything to do with the QB. For example, there could be injuries to the OL or skill position players. Or the year before the schedule was incredibly weak. Or the QB's defense played better or worse and that changed how often the offense got the ball. Or defensive coordinators had more time to make better game plans. Or game conditions or weather conditions changed from one year to the next. Or the QB himself had perfect health the first year and got dinged up the next.

I get that people want to suggest that Mahomes' 2018 season is the new norm, but it could easily have been the perfect storm that may not be repeated at any point in his career. People said Dan Marino revolutionized the game by throwing for 5000/49 at 22 or 23 years old. He had a nice career, but he didn't have another season like that again (he had one that was close). I would suggest Mahomes won't get to 40 passing TD's this year (no one else has been able to have back to back 40 TD seasons).

I posted in other threads that without Hunt playing, Mahomes numbers dipped some. I don't think it's crazy to think he could "only" put up 4500/38. which is pretty close to what Luck had last year and ranked 5th. IMO, last year was the year to have Mahomes when he was a 9th or 10th round pick. This year his consensus ADP is 20th overall, and it would not shock me at all if he was a Top 3-5 fantasy QB this season. Still good production, but nowhere near the home run value wise he was last year.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Only 13 times has a QB thrown for 40 TD's in a season and only Manning, Marino, Brees, and Rodgers have done it more than once. There are reasons why QB's don't have seasons like that very often, which may or may not have anything to do with the QB. For example, there could be injuries to the OL or skill position players. Or the year before the schedule was incredibly weak. Or the QB's defense played better or worse and that changed how often the offense got the ball. Or defensive coordinators had more time to make better game plans. Or game conditions or weather conditions changed from one year to the next. Or the QB himself had perfect health the first year and got dinged up the next.

I get that people want to suggest that Mahomes' 2018 season is the new norm, but it could easily have been the perfect storm that may not be repeated at any point in his career. People said Dan Marino revolutionized the game by throwing for 5000/49 at 22 or 23 years old. He had a nice career, but he didn't have another season like that again (he had one that was close). I would suggest Mahomes won't get to 40 passing TD's this year (no one else has been able to have back to back 40 TD seasons).

I posted in other threads that without Hunt playing, Mahomes numbers dipped some. I don't think it's crazy to think he could "only" put up 4500/38. which is pretty close to what Luck had last year and ranked 5th. IMO, last year was the year to have Mahomes when he was a 9th or 10th round pick. This year his consensus ADP is 20th overall, and it would not shock me at all if he was a Top 3-5 fantasy QB this season. Still good production, but nowhere near the home run value wise he was last year.
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Great stuff here. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
I posted in other threads that without Hunt playing, Mahomes numbers dipped some. I don't think it's crazy to think he could "only" put up 4500/38. 
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Maybe it's a KC thing. 

I remember vividly a time when you were a blasphemous "hater" if you predicted Larry Johnson would get any less than 2000/20 RUSHING. How could he get any less!?

 
cobalt_27 said:
Love this.
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It does sound funny talking about a HOFer that way, and he did put up some great numbers over his career. But I remember people wondering when and how often Marion would hit 50 TD’s and how many rings he would win. And we all know how things turned out. 

Given the hype around Mahomes, if his career played out like Marino’s, a lot of people would look at his career as being somewhat of a disappointment. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
It does sound funny talking about a HOFer that way, and he did put up some great numbers over his career. But I remember people wondering when and how often Marion would hit 50 TD’s and how many rings he would win. And we all know how things turned out. 

Given the hype around Mahomes, if his career played out like Marino’s, a lot of people would look at his career as being somewhat of a disappointment. 
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I don’t know any rational person who would characterize Marino’s career as a disappointment.  It certainly is an injustice, if such a thing exists, that he didn’t win a ring.  But, he is universally regarded in the Mount Rushmore of QBs—not simply a hall of famer—and anyone doing more than superficial analysis understands his career was an extraordinary one, not a disappointment. 

 
cobalt_27 said:
I don’t know any rational person who would characterize Marino’s career as a disappointment.  It certainly is an injustice, if such a thing exists, that he didn’t win a ring.  But, he is universally regarded in the Mount Rushmore of QBs—not simply a hall of famer—and anyone doing more than superficial analysis understands his career was an extraordinary one, not a disappointment. 
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I wasn’t knocking Marino, I was knocking people that set insane expectations for him back in the day. I followed his whole career from Pitt through Miami and he was one of the best passers to ever play.  The fate of the Dolphins should not be held against him. I never have bought into the concept that a QB wins or loses on his own. It’s a team sport with coaches and front offices that play just as big a role  

If the expectation was multiple 5000/50 seasons and multiple SB wins like people are suggesting for Mahomes, then Marino’s career would look like a disappointment. I am not saying his career was disappointing, I am saying the people that thought he would keep putting up huge numbers every year didn’t understand how football works. 

People are talking about Mahones the same way with even more hype. There’s no denying he was phenomenal last year. Let’s see how he does moving forward before we say he changed the way the game was played and redefined the QB position as the best to ever play. 

 
BroadwayG said:
I would suggest he has a completely different regression line than other QBs. If he does regress, it will be to 6000 yards and 60+ TDs. So much meat left on the bone.
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On pace for 6000/48

Hopefully he learns from his no look Kelce gaffe and bumps his TD pace. Enjoy the ride fellas.

I'm locking in Mahomes/Kelce/Watkins in DFS for the next 5 weeks.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Vegas put the over/under at 36.5 TDs.

No QB has ever posted a TD % over 8 and not regressed by at least 2%.

ETA: for clarity, TD % went down at least 2%
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Because of this post I placed a prop for the over.  It was 37.5 though. 

I don’t expect 50, but barring injury I figured 38 was a breeze. 

Looks like a nice pace so far. He shoulda had a 72 yard bomb but a BS penalty on Shady negated it. Felt like the Mercy Rule. 

And the Hill injury revealed even more receiving weapons with Robinson & Hardman? Woof. Good luck slowing this train down. 

 
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