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Am I crazy for considering Cook at 1.5?

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Before you automatically say "YES!", consider my reasoning. I am a HUGE believer in Kubiak. He has made fantasy gold out of much lessor RB's. The other RB's available there have many questions surrounding them. I also know he more than likely will not make it back to me in the 2nd round. A lot of experts are saying IF healthy he could be a top 5 back, so what's the problem with taking him at the 5th pick?

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I am of the opinion that in that spot I would trade back a few spots if you could.  That way you can get Cook and a little something extra also.  If you can not do that, take the player YOU want.  It is YOUR draft and your choice, whether other think it is crazy or not.  Go into the trenches with the guys YOU want.  It is much more fun that way instead of saying "what if" months later.  At least you are going in with your guy.

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4 minutes ago, Winning IS Everything said:

I am of the opinion that in that spot I would trade back a few spots if you could.  That way you can get Cook and a little something extra also.  If you can not do that, take the player YOU want.  It is YOUR draft and your choice, whether other think it is crazy or not.  Go into the trenches with the guys YOU want.  It is much more fun that way instead of saying "what if" months later.  At least you are going in with your guy.

Completely agree. If that is what you want to do and you're peer pressured into making a different choice only for Cook to go off, you will regret it. 

And no, I don't think you're crazy at all. 

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Devil's advocate here - if you play in a 12-teamer with the 1.5 pick, that means your next pick is 2.7, which is EXACTLY his current ADP for a PPR league.  Why would you reach that far, when there is a 50/50 shot of him at 2.7?

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5 minutes ago, Tool said:

Just take him in the 2nd round, if he's gone pick someone else.

:goodposting:

(though let’s be real, he’s long gone by pick 20.)

Theres usually a pretty large gap between what we think we know and what we find out we actually knew around Week 4.

Put another way, you might win with picket jacks but that doesn’t mean it’s a good idea to shove.

<<huge Dalvin fan, have drafted him the last two years & might again at 2.03 (15th.)

Edited by BobbyLayne

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1 minute ago, TheWinz said:

Devil's advocate here - if you play in a 12-teamer with the 1.5 pick, that means your next pick is 2.7, which is EXACTLY his current ADP for a PPR league.  Why would you reach that far, when there is a 50/50 shot of him at 2.7?

he has the 2.08

Cook’s PPR consensus ADP is 17th, RB9 per fantasypros

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ADP says I should take DJ. I happen to think the odds of Cook being equal to or exceeding DJ is very good this year. So why is it so wrong to take him there?

 

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Just now, BobbyLayne said:

he has the 2.08

Cook’s PPR consensus ADP is 17th, RB9 per fantasypros

yes, you are correct about the 2.8 vs 2.7, my bad

but ADP depends on where you look - FBG has him at 20, 

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You are never crazy for considering a player you feel assured wont make it to your next draft pick.  🏄‍♂️

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1 minute ago, Payne said:

ADP says I should take DJ. I happen to think the odds of Cook being equal to or exceeding DJ is very good this year. So why is it so wrong to take him there?

because there IS a chance he will be there at pick 20.  if you thought Josh Jacobs would finish top 5, would you take him at 1.5?

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51 minutes ago, Who am I? said:

Before you automatically say "YES!", consider my reasoning. I am a HUGE believer in Kubiak. He has made fantasy gold out of much lessor RB's. The other RB's available there have many questions surrounding them. I also know he more than likely will not make it back to me in the 2nd round. A lot of experts are saying IF healthy he could be a top 5 back, so what's the problem with taking him at the 5th pick?

This is why auction type draft should be the norm.  Get guys on your squad that you want.

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draft players you want, not players you settled on. 

first time ive written this in 2019. ongoing yearly tradition now for 20yrs

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8 minutes ago, Choke said:

You are never crazy for considering a player you feel assured wont make it to your next draft pick.  🏄‍♂️

The question is, how assured do you need to feel that Cook won't make it back to you in the next round?  90% chance, 50% chance, 10% chance?  There HAS to be a number, a line in the sand kind of number for each of us.

If that number is near 50%, I am taking my chances that he will be there later.  Think of it this way - you take DJ at 1.5, then BPA at 2.8.  If Cook makes it to you, hooray!  If he doesn't, I 100% guarantee, I bet the farm, you could trade DJ and another player for Cook and a player better than the other guy you add with DJ (i.e. DJ and Landry for Cook and Lockett).

Let's put it another way - Cook will definitely not make it to pick 2.12, right?  So, if I really really really love him, do I take him at 1.1?

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If that is who you like, sure but I agree with others that you should see if you can trade back-even if you don't get much from the deal. 

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6 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

If that is who you like, sure but I agree with others that you should see if you can trade back-even if you don't get much from the deal. 

So he takes DJ at 1.5, and Cook goes at 2.4 for example.  Do you think the Cook owner would trade straight up for DJ post-draft?  It is a 100% guarantee, and everyone here knows it.  Could he get a little bump elsewhere?  For sure.

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25 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

The question is, how assured do you need to feel that Cook won't make it back to you in the next round?  90% chance, 50% chance, 10% chance?  There HAS to be a number, a line in the sand kind of number for each of us.

If that number is near 50%, I am taking my chances that he will be there later.  Think of it this way - you take DJ at 1.5, then BPA at 2.8.  If Cook makes it to you, hooray!  If he doesn't, I 100% guarantee, I bet the farm, you could trade DJ and another player for Cook and a player better than the other guy you add with DJ (i.e. DJ and Landry for Cook and Lockett).

Let's put it another way - Cook will definitely not make it to pick 2.12, right?  So, if I really really really love him, do I take him at 1.1?

No. The RB's available at 1.1 are better than DJ and Cook. 

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27 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

The question is, how assured do you need to feel that Cook won't make it back to you in the next round?  90% chance, 50% chance, 10% chance?  There HAS to be a number, a line in the sand kind of number for each of us.

If that number is near 50%, I am taking my chances that he will be there later.  Think of it this way - you take DJ at 1.5, then BPA at 2.8.  If Cook makes it to you, hooray!  If he doesn't, I 100% guarantee, I bet the farm, you could trade DJ and another player for Cook and a player better than the other guy you add with DJ (i.e. DJ and Landry for Cook and Lockett).

Let's put it another way - Cook will definitely not make it to pick 2.12, right?  So, if I really really really love him, do I take him at 1.1?

Making a trade after the draft is a valid point. Thanks.

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16 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

So he takes DJ at 1.5, and Cook goes at 2.4 for example.  Do you think the Cook owner would trade straight up for DJ post-draft?  It is a 100% guarantee, and everyone here knows it.  Could he get a little bump elsewhere?  For sure.

Perhaps but that is a risk. There is a chance that the guy who takes Dalvin doesn't like DJ . Most would take DJ over Dalvin but there is a small % of people who just won't buy into Arizona or who had DJ before and remember being disappointed, etc. I would just try to trade back a few spots. Maybe someone will trade up to get DJ or to get Nuk or whomever. You could swap 1st and 2nd picks thus netting you Cook and an earlier 2nd round pick. You could swap 1sts and ask for FAB $ if they use it and allow it to be traded. Heck even swapping 1st round picks and then swapping say 4th and 5th round picks would be a gain. 

 

Well nevermind if you can't trade draft picks. 

Edited by Ilov80s

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People get so hung up on the consensus ADP sometimes. Each individual draft is its own market however. If the consensus ADP says 2.08 for Cook, that means very little when the guy at 2.03 takes him there. I'm not advocating any huge reaches or anything like that but generally speaking take the guys you want as late as you think you can get them in YOUR draft. Sure one could say you can take DJ at 1.05 and then get Cook at 2.08 - but will that necessarily end up being better than Cook at 1.05 and Mixon or Mike Evans at 2.08? We don't really know. Take the guys you like - this game is supposed to be fun. If everyone went in with and ADP list and drafted off of that the draft wouldn't be very fun.

Throwing out extreme examples of reaches does not add to the conversation but posts like @TheWinz where brings up alternatives (trading DJ for Cook) does - and its a great point. However of course while we can once again say "anyone would accept that offer post draft" we are in a closed market and there could be some one else in that league that values Cook over DJ and is the one that ends up with Cook at 2.03.

Here trading back unfortunately is not an option (which sucks and is a "bad" rule) so I don't think its so outlandish to take the guy you want. Is there a huge difference in 1.05 and say 2.05? I honestly don't think so - so why let ADP determine your choice. As long as Cook is not a bust, the "reach" is not going to kill you.

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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In my last draft of the year last season I had 1.09 and took McCaffrey because I didn’t have him anywhere else and wanted him. I don’t remember his adp but it was a bit of “a reach”

I’ve missed with “reaches” obviously too, but if I want someone I’m drafting them adp be damned

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16 minutes ago, Weebs210 said:

Reaching for a guy who will most likely miss games is probably a bad idea.

The same argument can be made for any running back in the NFL.

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Go with your gut! As an option, looking at the guys drafting lower, could you trade with your round 1 + late pick for Cook + mid pick.

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2 hours ago, TheWinz said:

yes, you are correct about the 2.8 vs 2.7, my bad

but ADP depends on where you look - FBG has him at 20, 

I don’t think the majority of people understand that ADP is transient. So many see a # and then repeat that # over and over. Or they see someone else quote an ADP and they respond oh no they won’t be there, THIS is his ADP. It’s really annoying. ADP is simply used to give you a general idea of where you can expect someone to go - for anyone reading this that doesn’t understand. 

TL:DR Thus, it’s entirely possible Cook will be there mid 2nd. 

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27 minutes ago, Elevencents said:

I don’t think the majority of people understand that ADP is transient. So many see a # and then repeat that # over and over. Or they see someone else quote an ADP and they respond oh no they won’t be there, THIS is his ADP. It’s really annoying. ADP is simply used to give you a general idea of where you can expect someone to go - for anyone reading this that doesn’t understand. 

TL:DR Thus, it’s entirely possible Cook will be there mid 2nd. 

Sure. But if you feel more confident he can be top 5 then the RB's sitting there at 1.5, you can't take that chance. You have to consider taking him if you want him. 

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2 hours ago, Payne said:

ADP says I should take DJ. I happen to think the odds of Cook being equal to or exceeding DJ is very good this year. So why is it so wrong to take him there?

 

Because you could take a top 3 WR and then very likely get Cook in the 2nd. And if you miss Cook there are plenty of quality RBs there who you can also take. 

Your best move is to trade down to 9 or 10 for the 1st & 2nd picks, that way you get a Julio or Juju then Cook on the way back.

taking Cook at 1.05 isn’t crazy, it’s just now smart. :shrug:

In my decades of playing this game, the best way to tank your draft is to let your man-crush for a player cause you to reach for them unnecessarily.

its not that Cook won’t outperform DJ - maybe he will. But why make him your 1st pick when he should be your second? 

That negates a significant amount of the value of drafting Cook, and causes you to take a lesser WR1 or RB2 than you would have had otherwise. 

 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

People get so hung up on the consensus ADP sometimes. Each individual draft is its own market however. If the consensus ADP says 2.08 for Cook, that means very little when the guy at 2.03 takes him there. I'm not advocating any huge reaches or anything like that but generally speaking take the guys you want as late as you think you can get them in YOUR draft. Sure one could say you can take DJ at 1.05 and then get Cook at 2.08 - but will that necessarily end up being better than Cook at 1.05 and Mixon or Mike Evans at 2.08? We don't really know. Take the guys you like - this game is supposed to be fun. If everyone went in with and ADP list and drafted off of that the draft wouldn't be very fun.

Throwing out extreme examples of reaches does not add to the conversation but posts like @TheWinz where brings up alternatives (trading DJ for Cook) does - and its a great point. However of course while we can once again say "anyone would accept that offer post draft" we are in a closed market and there could be some one else in that league that values Cook over DJ and is the one that ends up with Cook at 2.03.

Here trading back unfortunately is not an option (which sucks and is a "bad" rule) so I don't think its so outlandish to take the guy you want. Is there a huge difference in 1.05 and say 2.05? I honestly don't think so - so why let ADP determine your choice. As long as Cook is not a bust, the "reach" is not going to kill you.

In general I agree. But I disagree that it’s not a huge difference between 1.05 & 2.05. 

To me the dilemma here isn’t whether it’s a bad idea to reach a full round for Cook. It’s being so hung up on getting Cook that you would take him over say, DAdams or Hopkins at 5, and then take either Cook or an *equal value RB* on the way back. If Cook goes 2.03 as in your hypothetical (absolutely possible for sure) then one of Mixon, Chubb, Fournette, etc will likely make it back. 

Then you get best player available every round to maximize value instead of reaching for a player & getting potentially lesser value as a result. 

What makes Cook a terrific pick this year is the injury discount. Even at his peak pre-injury he wasn’t going as a top 10 pick in redraft. 

As a general philosophy I try to never get so hung up on any one player that I fail to see the forest for the trees. 

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18 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Because you could take a top 3 WR and then very likely get Cook in the 2nd. And if you miss Cook there are plenty of quality RBs there who you can also take. 

Your best move is to trade down to 9 or 10 for the 1st & 2nd picks, that way you get a Julio or Juju then Cook on the way back.

taking Cook at 1.05 isn’t crazy, it’s just now smart. :shrug:

In my decades of playing this game, the best way to tank your draft is to let your man-crush for a player cause you to reach for them unnecessarily.

its not that Cook won’t outperform DJ - maybe he will. But why make him your 1st pick when he should be your second

That negates a significant amount of the value of drafting Cook, and causes you to take a lesser WR1 or RB2 than you would have had otherwise. 

 

If you believe he will be a top 5 RB and don't want to risk missing out on him then take him.  That is the reason to take him with your 1st round pick.

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Some of you are getting too emotional over this. It was just a general question to fire up a discussion. 

This isn't my first draft. Not even close. Personally, I have a lot of question marks after the top 4 RB's go off the board. If one of them drops (assuming Elliott gets into camp soon), I'm going to take one of them. But assuming they are gone, pick 1.5 has you looking at DJ, Bell or Hopkins. I am leaning Hopkins to be honest because sometimes Cook does make it back. OR if not, another good RB is usually there.  Several in fact.

However, I tend to think with Kubiak, a solid defense and two great WR's to keep the opposing defense honest that Cook could be a breakout candidate. So I thought, why not take him at 1.5? Grab Evans in the 2nd and go from there.  DJ scares me. They looked awful the other day. Awful. Bell scares me. They all seem to have question marks. So I was thinking outside the box. 

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2 hours ago, TheWinz said:

So he takes DJ at 1.5, and Cook goes at 2.4 for example.  Do you think the Cook owner would trade straight up for DJ post-draft?  It is a 100% guarantee, and everyone here knows it.  

Is that guaranteed? I don't play is super-high stakes shark leagues so maybe it's different, but my experience has always been that it's near-impossible to make trades right after a draft because the endowment effect kicks in and everyone likes "their" guys, even if they had somebody else higher heading in. I've picked players right in front of guys who've gone "DAMN, that was my pick!" and been visibly upset, and an hour later they're not interesting in trading for him because they've convinced themselves they like their pick better.

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26 minutes ago, Gally said:

If you believe he will be a top 5 RB and don't want to risk missing out on him then take him.  That is the reason to take him with your 1st round pick.

That’s missing the forest for the trees. 

People who fall in love with players to the point that they reach for them by a full round lose leagues. 

Better to risk missing Cook than dramatically overpay for Cook. 

Especially considering Cook’s injury history, which is why his ADP is where it is. 

Ain’t nothin wrong with a man-crush. I’m the king of annual man-crushes. I just don’t overpay for them.  

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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if you dont think he'll be there at 2.7 and you feel he's the best option at 1.5 make the pick. i like him a lot, i may be in a similar situation as my draft order isnt decided until right before the draft.

Edited by iamkoza
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3 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That’s missing the forest for the trees. 

People who fall in love with players to the point that they reach for them by a full round lose leagues. 

Better to risk missing Cook than dramatically overpay for Cook. 

Especially considering Cook’s injury history, which is why his ADP is where it is. 

Ain’t nothin wrong with a man-crush. I’m the kind of annual man-crushes. I just don’t overpay for them.  

Reaching for everyone you believe in is not a good way to go however having the confidence to believe your evaluation for elite guys is beneficial provided you trust your evaluations and are correct more often than not.  

 

In this case there are questions on all the players in that area and if you feel strongly enough that Cook will be a top 5 guy then take him where you know you can get him.  Don't risk losing him. 

 

Now reaching multiple rounds isn't necessary but we are talking about a half a round reach at worst.  This  does win you leagues if you are right.   Reason being this......if you pass at 1.05 and someone else takes Cook the pick before he makes it back to you and you are right that he finishes as the RB5 that guy gets a steal and you missed out.  You are hurt by it.  

 

On the flip side you take him at 1.05 and he flames out then you missed on your evaluation and should be hurt by it.  You have to plant your flag at some point to win by believing in yourself.

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4 minutes ago, Who am I? said:

Some of you are getting too emotional over this. It was just a general question to fire up a discussion. 

Actually some of us are getting logical over this. Emotional is dramatically reaching for a player. ;) 

Quote

This isn't my first draft. Not even close. Personally, I have a lot of question marks after the top 4 RB's go off the board.

Which is fair. I think everyone does. That’s probably why they’re also not top 4. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t diamonds in the rough. 

Proof of that would seem to be you believing Cook has a 1.05 valuation. 

I believe he will perform at that level too. I just wouldn’t dramatically overpay to get him. 

If you know your draft position is incompatible with a players ADP, you have a choice. You can reach for that player & potentially miss value elsewhere, or you can adjust your draft plan to take a better value player & roll the dice for your 2nd round pick. 

VBD says to do the latter. The former is trying to shove a round peg into a square hole. 

In your scenario, you might get Cook in the 2nd anyway. So taking him in the 1st would cost you a top 3 WR. 

Quote

If one of them drops (assuming Elliott gets into camp soon), I'm going to take one of them. But assuming they are gone, pick 1.5 has you looking at DJ, Bell or Hopkins. I am leaning Hopkins to be honest because sometimes Cook does make it back. OR if not, another good RB is usually there.  Several in fact.

That is the correct answer IMO. Adams is likely there as well. 

Quote

However, I tend to think with Kubiak, a solid defense and two great WR's to keep the opposing defense honest that Cook could be a breakout candidate. So I thought, why not take him at 1.5? Grab Evans in the 2nd and go from there.  DJ scares me. They looked awful the other day. Awful. Bell scares me. They all seem to have question marks. So I was thinking outside the box. 

Evans might not be there in the 2nd either though. 

So what’s really important is the drop-off in tiers. 

I see the RB tiers being significantly deeper this year than the WR tiers. There are 3rd & 4th round RBs this year who could finish top 10.  WRs seem to drop off a cliff. 

So if you wait on a RB, you could have elite/tier1 talent at 2 positions early. 

But if you reach for Cook at 5 & miss Evans,  you’re looking at a more substantial drop in quality at WR. 

It can be hard to recover from that. Not impossible, but I find drafts always go better when I let the players come to me instead of chasing after any one. 

Good luck. If you reach for Cook I hope it works out for you. 👍🏼

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8 minutes ago, Gally said:

Reaching for everyone you believe in is not a good way to go however having the confidence to believe your evaluation for elite guys is beneficial provided you trust your evaluations and are correct more often than not.  

Generally speaking, sure. Reaching in the 1st for a 2nd rounder notsomuch. 

Quote

In this case there are questions on all the players in that area and if you feel strongly enough that Cook will be a top 5 guy then take him where you know you can get him.  Don't risk losing him. 

Hopkins & Adams don’t have a whole lot of questions in my book. :shrug:

Quote

Now reaching multiple rounds isn't necessary but we are talking about a half a round reach at worst.  This  does win you leagues if you are right.   Reason being this......if you pass at 1.05 and someone else takes Cook the pick before he makes it back to you and you are right that he finishes as the RB5 that guy gets a steal and you missed out.  You are hurt by it.  

You're not hurt by it if you take another player of equal value there. Yes, dude before him potentially got a great value. That doesn’t mean that’s the only value on the board. Maybe Tyreek Hill or OBJ slides to him because that dude took Cook. Now he’s got 2 top 5 WRs and can stack value RBs in the next couple rounds. 

Quote

On the flip side you take him at 1.05 and he flames out then you missed on your evaluation and should be hurt by it.  You have to plant your flag at some point to win by believing in yourself.

Yeah,  but why increase that risk unnecessarily? Cook’s price has that risk factored in.

it’s like shopping at the scratch & dent store & paying list price for a major appliance when it’s marked down 35%. 

Anyway, not my circus, not my monkeys. Anyone can do whatever they want - it just seems silly to overpay for any player that early with so much value on the board. 

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5 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That’s missing the forest for the trees. 

People who fall in love with players to the point that they reach for them by a full round lose leagues. 

Better to risk missing Cook than dramatically overpay for Cook. 

Especially considering Cook’s injury history, which is why his ADP is where it is. 

Ain’t nothin wrong with a man-crush. I’m the kind of annual man-crushes. I just don’t overpay for them.  

So true!  I just don't get why people are saying it's a good idea to reach a full round in the first.  Sure, if this was the difference between rounds 9 & 10, by all means, grab your man.  I have a man-crush on Jameis Winston this year.  Would anyone in here advocate taking him the pick directly after Mahomes?  Hey, you never know, there just may be someone else in my league with the same man-crush.

As far as some saying you wouldn't be able to trade DJ for Cook straight up post-draft, that's complete crap, unless Cook goes directly after DJ to a guy with a bigger man-crush.  You want to test this theory?  Create a poll in here.  Now, I take this all back if your league is near Minnesota.  

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Generally speaking, sure. Reaching in the 1st for a 2nd rounder notsomuch. 

Hopkins & Adams don’t have a whole lot of questions in my book. :shrug:

You're not hurt by it if you take another player of equal value there. Yes, dude before him potentially got a great value. That doesn’t mean that’s the only value on the board. Maybe Tyreek Hill or OBJ slides to him because that dude took Cook. Now he’s got 2 top 5 WRs and can stack value RBs in the next couple rounds. 

Yeah,  but why increase that risk unnecessarily? Cook’s price has that risk factored in.

it’s like shopping at the scratch & dent store & paying list price for a major appliance when it’s marked down 35%. 

Anyway, not my circus, not my monkeys. Anyone can do whatever they want - it just seems silly to overpay for any player that early with so much value on the board. 

But now you are putting your valuation on those guys just like the OP is doing with Cook.  Your premise means you should draft completely nameless and go straight on ADP.  Never reach because the ADP value is never wrong.  Unfortunately that is not the case.  You can do just fine and usually have decent seasons by going strict ADP and never reach but that has no personality or fun.

 

The fun to make your own valuations and figure out where the consensus is off so you can brag on how you outsmarted everyone else.  That is why many play FF.  You need a happy medium of reaching where your convictions are to ensure you get the player you believe in and waiting to get value where lower valued players provide a positive inequity.  

 

Bottom line is it's all a crap shoot anyway so make it fun for you and if that means reaching to get the player you want to root for then do it.

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27 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

If you know your draft position is incompatible with a players ADP, you have a choice. You can reach for that player & potentially miss value elsewhere, or you can adjust your draft plan to take a better value player & roll the dice for your 2nd round pick. 

VBD says to do the latter.

Actually VBD says the very opposite - if you draft strictly by VBD (and ignore ADP) and your projections have Cook as the 5th most valuable player in the draft relative to all other players, you take him there. Obviously going strictly by VBD means you have to trust your projections.

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I show up with a short list of "my guys" , listed in ADP order.  When the last name is crossed out I put myself on autodraft,  get up and go to the bar to celebrate another championship.

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1 minute ago, Gally said:

But now you are putting your valuation on those guys just like the OP is doing with Cook.  Your premise means you should draft completely nameless and go straight on ADP.  Never reach because the ADP value is never wrong.  Unfortunately that is not the case.  You can do just fine and usually have decent seasons by going strict ADP and never reach but that has no personality or fun.

Wut?

Adams/Hopkins are the consensus 1-2 WRs. I’m not putting my valuation on them nor would they be a reach. That’s their ADP & they’re tier 1 WRs. Neither would be a reach at 1.05

it has nothing to do with “nameless & faceless ADP” and everything to do with tiers & VBD. 

If I can get a top 3 WR & then either a top 7 WR or a top 10 RB in the 2nd, I’m going to do that over reaching a full round for Cook & taking a hit on my 2nd round pick.

Theres something to be said about “letting the draft come to you”. Another negative to teaching for Cook is that if an equal caliber RB does fall to you in the 2nd (as Cook may well have there anyway) you might feel pressed to take a 2nd OR 3rd. tier WR who carries significantly more risk than Hopkins/Adams (like Allen or TY Hilton) because the drop-off is even steeper after that. So now the reach for Cook in the 1st costs you value in the 2nd.

by letting the draft come to you & taking BPA in the first, maybe you land Cook in the 2nd. 

Whats better:

A. Cook/Hilton

B. Hopkins/Cook

seems pretty obvious. Yes, it’s a risk that Cook won’t be there. But that’s the risk/reward, right?  Maybe then it’d be ok to reach for a DWill in the 2nd, or take another elite or near elite WR, then go for a Montgomery or Carson after that in the 3rd.

Point is, ADP isn’t a maze that you’re forced to walk through, it’s a road map to where others generally value players. 

Reaching for players isn’t terrible - I do it all the time. I just think the 1st round is too early to do it because it can cost you flexibility & value.’

1 minute ago, Gally said:

 

The fun to make your own valuations and figure out where the consensus is off so you can brag on how you outsmarted everyone else.  That is why many play FF.  You need a happy medium of reaching where your convictions are to ensure you get the player you believe in and waiting to get value where lower valued players provide a positive inequity.  

Of course that’s all true.

but it’d be silly to ignore where the general population values players. Using that as a guidepost can allow you to spot bargains.

fixating on any one player diminishes that potential to find bargains. 

Just because you believe a player is more valuable than their ADP doesn't mean you should take them 10 picks before it. It means you recognize the value & take advantage of it if that player falls to you.  

1 minute ago, Gally said:

 

Bottom line is it's all a crap shoot anyway so make it fun for you and if that means reaching to get the player you want to root for then do it.

The answer is simple: because it’s more fun to win leagues than it is to root for a single player. 

Don't let a mancrush dictate your early picks. 👍🏼

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10 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Actually VBD says the very opposite - if you draft strictly by VBD (and ignore ADP) and your projections have Cook as the 5th most valuable player in the draft relative to all other players, you take him there. Obviously going strictly by VBD means you have to trust your projections.

I use a combination: VBD tells me who I want. ADP tells me when to take them because of how others value them. 

I don’t know anyone who goes strictly by either. 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I use a combination: VBD tells me who I want. ADP tells me when to take them because of how others value them. 

I don’t know anyone who goes strictly by either. 

I think that's the best approach overall, but was just commenting on "VBD says to do the latter" when VBD would clearly and loudly say "take the next guy on your VBD list".

I don't think massive reaches are ever a good idea - I just don't see this as a massive reach based on then many factors I've already discussed.

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Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

I think that's the best approach overall, but was just commenting on "VBD says to do the latter" when VBD would clearly and loudly say "take the next guy on your VBD list".

I don't think massive reaches are ever a good idea - I just don't see this as a massive reach based on then many factors I've already discussed.

I see it a little differently.

maybe I interpret VBD differently - I’ve always factored in positional rarity & tiering into the V part.

meaning, if there’s a larger drop-off between the WR I can take at 1.05 & the WR I’d get at 2.08 than the potential drop-off between the RB reach of Cook & the RB i might get at 2.08 (which, ironically, could also be Cook) then the better value is Hopkins/Adams.

Is Cook a massive reach at 1.05? Only in relation to the next best RB.

from the mocks I’ve done from 5, I’d rather go WR-WR-RB-RB than reach for Cook because there’s a clear drop-off of talent at WR this year: 

sure there are some upside players, but the elite 5-7 WRs seem substantially more blue-chip than the next tier. This is the deepest year I’ve seen at RB in a long time.  

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