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My trophies and cash payouts say otherwise. And the only reason it's a reach is why?? Because experts and other players dictate a manufactured ADP?
Of course I would rather have Hopkins/Cook but that really isn't the comparison we should be discussing here. The reason to take Cook at 1.05 is the belief he won't be there at pick #2. If I know for sure Cook makes it back then I wait.....unfortunately that is not guaranteed.
"Dramatically overpay"?
I keep seeing him go at 19 and the Chubb at 20.
You're always counting on the guy you take to stay healthy. David Johnson played less than half a game the year he went 1.01-1.03 in every league.
He also played 16 games the 2 years prior. He has played 16 games 3/4 years.
I guess that is the crux of the situation and why you wouldn't "reach" for Cook. If the OP is projecting a full year and a top 5 finish from Cook then to him it is a "sure-fire" thing. I think everyone is in agreement that they would much rather draft Cook in the 2nd round. It is better value. However, based on ADP it is no guarantee that he lasts. So the question is if you truly believe that Cook is a top 5 RB this year do you risk missing out on that performance by waiting and hoping? My answer is that if you are sold on Cook as a top 5 guy take him in that spot. If you have doubts then take the risk and hope he is there in the 2nd.
A torn ACL can happen to anyone. Past injuries are not always predictive of future injuries (or lack thereof). Fred Taylor was called "fragile Fred" and then all of a sudden he played 16 games every year going forward. It's a psychological hang-up, and I get it because it afflicts me sometimes as well - but the bottom line is any RB can get injured on any play. Cook is no more likely to miss time in 2019 than David Johnson is.
Fragile Fred played 16 games twice in his career. And that was in the 5th and 6th years of his career
A hamstring injury right after an ACl tear is somewhat typical and can be directly related to the original injury.
Sure. And If I was betting--I THINK he'll play most of the season. But I'm also not going to completely ignore what he's missed in the first 2 years of his career. You've got to risk stratify.
No one knows anything for sure. That’s why it’s a risk to take the WR & hope the RB gets there.
There ya go. So that’s your opinon on DWill - good to know, but irrelevant to the discussion. It was merely one example of a RB who might be available.
No. You’ve entirely missed the mark. There’s no fallacy. My reasoning is based on where the consensus believes these players will perform and *should be drafted”.
Again, no. I believe it’s a huge difference because you are passing up the opportunity to get a blue chip WR to reach for a Cook at1.05, instead of taking the blue chip WR and then taking a player of equal value in the 2nd, which might even be Cook.
Bingo.
Oh, hello mr I win every league every year response guy. How nice of you to join us.
No, it’s a reach because the consensus ADP indicates that’s where the majority of players in the majority of leagues will draft him.
I’m not telling anyone they’re right or wrong. I’m telling them what makes sense from a value perspective in fantasy football. I too have won leagues. I too have cashed out. I too have reached for players and learned from it.
I play in 2 leagues full of Bay Area Niner fans. And no one reached for Kittle.
He could at least get a handle or a beer from owners 6-12 for letting them get a better player. That's probably not against the rules.
Oh, when I’m sitting 1.07, the best thing I can hope for is seeing 1.05 take a 2nd rounder.
If you don't believe there to be "other RB's of equal or near value" that will be left then you take the chance to get the guy you think is above the other round 2 options. Couple that with not thinking there is as big of a drop off with WR's and it makes sense.
Which is fine. It’s wrong, but it’s fine.
Again, you’re welcome to believe whatever you like. But if you believe the drop-off from Hopkins/Adams to say, Tyler Lockett or Diggs isn’t massive, you’re likely projecting inaccurately.
I understand what you’ve been saying. And I’ve clearly addressed your points.
Unless that means reaching & ruining whatever value could have been gleaned by using ADP to capitalize on that value.
But again:
Which might be true. But by the fact that’s the case, doesn’t that mean another player will certainly then fall further than expected? It’s a snake draft after all. So yeah - maybe 1.05 misses Cook in the 2nd.
I am only trying to show why someone would do so and why it is reasonable. I am not saying there aren't other players that can/will have similar seasons in this specific example.
In my estimation, yes.
Which is basically the same as 2.01 in a 12-team league.
I think RB gets a lot riskier and a lot uglier a lot quicker. Random rankings:
You mean 3.01, right? It actually was. This league values RBs highly, so I was afraid of what I'd be left with if I went WR/WR.
I see about 25 high floor PPR RBs & maybe 18 high floor PPR WRs.
Wait - he made it to 2.12?! Sorry, i’d misread that as 1.12
This is true as well. If you really want someone you need to scrap ADP for the most part and just go for it. Not as much early on but the later rounds people can start going 4 and 5 rounds early.
I sincerely hope every manager in my league has this midset on Sunday, and reaches several rounds for every one of their picks.
This is why I often overbuy the rb position early, there are just more options at wr a little later.
I’m not saying everyone is going to do this, and not every player goes 4 or 5 rounds early obviously, but I have lost out on players I was targeting multiple rounds earlier than I ever expected them to go. It happens once almost every year.I sincerely hope every manager in my league has this midset on Sunday, and reaches several rounds for every one of their picks.
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