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Who am I?

Am I crazy for considering Cook at 1.5?

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3 minutes ago, Who am I? said:

I appreciate those who have had good, constructive discussions about this. Some of you are borderline classless. 

Because somebody thinks outside the box and doesn't just follow the heard they are labeled as delusional. That's nice. Thought this was a discussion board. 

Fact is, if Cook ends up top 5, those who think it is a dumb selection will be flat out wrong. ADP's are guesses. Nothing more. None of us know what's going to happen.

So because somebody disagrees they are wrong? Maybe most of you should set your drafts to auto pick since that's what following ADP does. 

It's a mute point as I am pretty certain I am going Hopkins - RB - RB. But my apologies for trying to bring up a discussion on a discussion forum. 

Back to your normal ADP talk. Good luck in your drafts.  

Don't let people get to you. Fantasy football should be about fun. Pick who you want. Moves like this have the potential to be a league winner. But it could also be a big mistake. Every pick has the same chance of failure. Seems like some people here don't agree with that. So go with your guy and good luck.

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11 minutes ago, Payne said:

Don't let people get to you. Fantasy football should be about fun. Pick who you want. Moves like this have the potential to be a league winner. But it could also be a big mistake. Every pick has the same chance of failure. Seems like some people here don't agree with that. So go with your guy and good luck.

Exactly.  It's FF and supposed to be fun.  Very few people are playing for life changing money.  If you like a player you don't think will be there with your next pick then take him even if it's "reaching" by 10-12 picks ADP wise.

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1 hour ago, Who am I? said:

I appreciate those who have had good, constructive discussions about this. Some of you are borderline classless. 

Because somebody thinks outside the box and doesn't just follow the heard they are labeled as delusional. That's nice. Thought this was a discussion board. 

Fact is, if Cook ends up top 5, those who think it is a dumb selection will be flat out wrong. ADP's are guesses. Nothing more. None of us know what's going to happen.

So because somebody disagrees they are wrong? Maybe most of you should set your drafts to auto pick since that's what following ADP does. 

It's a mute point as I am pretty certain I am going Hopkins - RB - RB. But my apologies for trying to bring up a discussion on a discussion forum. 

Back to your normal ADP talk. Good luck in your drafts.  

Don’t forget your ball.

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55 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

Don’t forget your ball.

That's not excellent.

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On 8/21/2019 at 4:03 PM, Deamon said:

Chubb at 20?  Jeez.  Not anymore.

Yup.  Still going there in the IBL drafts this week. Chubb #20 and #18, Cook #19 and #13

Last week Chubb #17, #19, #20, Cook #15, #18, #22

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2 hours ago, Who am I? said:

I appreciate those who have had good, constructive discussions about this. Some of you are borderline classless. 

Because somebody thinks outside the box and doesn't just follow the heard they are labeled as delusional. That's nice. Thought this was a discussion board. 

Fact is, if Cook ends up top 5, those who think it is a dumb selection will be flat out wrong. ADP's are guesses. Nothing more. None of us know what's going to happen.

So because somebody disagrees they are wrong? Maybe most of you should set your drafts to auto pick since that's what following ADP does. 

It's a mute point as I am pretty certain I am going Hopkins - RB - RB. But my apologies for trying to bring up a discussion on a discussion forum. 

Back to your normal ADP talk. Good luck in your drafts.  

So we convinced you.

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3 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Yup.  Still going there in the IBL drafts this week. Chubb #20 and #18, Cook #19 and #13

Last week Chubb #17, #19, #20, Cook #15, #18, #22

Noooooooooo!!!  I won't believe it! 

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17 hours ago, Who am I? said:

I appreciate those who have had good, constructive discussions about this. Some of you are borderline classless. 

Because somebody thinks outside the box and doesn't just follow the heard they are labeled as delusional. That's nice. Thought this was a discussion board. 

Fact is, if Cook ends up top 5, those who think it is a dumb selection will be flat out wrong. ADP's are guesses. Nothing more. None of us know what's going to happen.

So because somebody disagrees they are wrong? Maybe most of you should set your drafts to auto pick since that's what following ADP does. 

It's a mute point as I am pretty certain I am going Hopkins - RB - RB. But my apologies for trying to bring up a discussion on a discussion forum. 

Back to your normal ADP talk. Good luck in your drafts.  

Classless? Who’s classless? 

I thought I was respectful throughout. Heck, I was trying to help you make a decision. 

Even the more heated discussion never resorted to name-calling or bad behavior. Just people who disagree.

As for the rest, I mean, you did ask “am I crazy [to do this]? “

If anyone answered “yes” that’s not exactly classless. 

You’re the one who came into the shark pool asking for help instead of posting it to the assistant coach forum, and now you’re mad that people disagreed with you? We should all set out drafts to auto pick by adp huh?

i think I’ll set your profile to “ignore” instead.  👍🏼

Also, it’s “moot”, not mute. And ADP is not "guesses", it's ADP. The average that players are being taken. Projections & rankings are guesses. Usually educated ones. FYI. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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26 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

So we convinced you.

Exactly. 

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11 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

Cook at 1.05 is a 'reach'. figuring that the top 4 of Barkley, McCaffery, Kamara, Zeke go 1-4, you're in the drivers seat to pick the best WR available. you go D. Hopkins. Cook might be the guy this season who finally puts it all together and wows everyone , posting the 2nd best rushing numbers behind Barkley, etc. but Cook is a mid 2nd round pick, I don't think people view him as rock-solid as you do. you'll get him in the 2nd round. after pick 5, there's a flurry or WRs flying off  board. for maybe 10 picks it'll be WRs and Joe Mixon splashed in there.and Nick Chubb.

I get where you're going with Cook thee's a chance he's incredibly good this season but a 1.05 pick on that 'potential' doesn't make sense. Hopkins is a steady performer year in year out.  

ADP and the consensus is wrong.  I'd argue that Cook, Chubb, Mixon, Gurley, Fournette should all go first round.  Carson and Kerryon should go early 2nd round.  Freeman should go in the 2nd round.  I guess I put more emphasis on running backs.

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9 minutes ago, N Zone said:

ADP and the consensus is wrong.  I'd argue that Cook, Chubb, Mixon, Gurley, Fournette should all go first round.  Carson and Kerryon should go early 2nd round.  Freeman should go in the 2nd round.  I guess I put more emphasis on running backs.

You putting more emphasis on RBs doesn’t mean ADP is wrong. 

ADP is neither right nor wrong. It is ADP. It is...what it is. 😳

players are drafted in 10s, 100s, or 1000s of leagues for a given timeframe. 

The average place those players are taken = ADP.

how can it be “wrong”?  It’s the average. 

:doh: 

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2 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

Don’t forget your ball.

Wow, too soon.  Marshall Faulk doesn't deserve that.

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On 8/21/2019 at 3:33 PM, ZWK said:

3 reasons to pass on Cook in the 1st.

1. If you like him way more than his ADP, you're probably overrating him. I think this is true with Cook - injuries, hasn't been that great when he's been on the field, bad OL.

2. The way to have a great draft is to get players later than they "should" be going. Let's say Cook actually is the 5th best player, and should be going in the mid 1st even though he keeps falling to the mid 2nd. If you get Cook at 1.05 and a 2nd rounder at 2.08, then that is a solid start to the draft. If you get the 6th best player at 1.05 and a 2nd rounder at 2.08 then that is an okay (but slightly less good) start to the draft. If you get the 6th best player at 1.05 and then Cook at 2.08 then that is an amazing start to the draft - that's how you set your team apart. So it's worth taking a gamble on Cook falling to 2.08, even if there's only a 1/4 chance of him being there.

3. You can make trades. If you miss out on Cook in the 2nd then you can send his owner some offers. Or (depending on league rules) you could talk to some owners before the draft and see if you can reach an "agreement in principle" to make a trade after the draft (don't tell them who you're targeting until they're ready to agree to it).

I'll give you three reason too:

1) Damian Williams in the 3rd/4th

2) Mack in the late 4th

3) Henry and Melvin in the 5th

 

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I haven’t read all the comments, but I think you’re talking about Dalvin, not Jared lol.  

Assuming it’s dalvin: listen, this is all a crapshoot.  Outside of Barkley, Kamara, zeke (if he plays) and CMC, total crapshoot.  I personally would not take cook at 5 BC he has a lengthy injury history and has not shown me he can take the pounding of a full season as a lead back.  But he’s talented when healthy.  

I’d personally rather take Chubb or any of the other backs I mentioned above than cook.  I’d also take DJ, mixon, and possibly even fournette over him.  

BUT, if you’ve got a feeling about the guy and you really want him on your team, there’s a good chance he won’t be available for you when it comes back to you for your 2nd pick, so go ahead and you be you.  Cool is a very talented rb.  If he stays healthy I see no reason why he couldn’t challenge to be a top 5 back this year, in which case spending a 1.5 pick on him wouldn’t be foolish.  

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5 minutes ago, rickyg said:

 I personally would not take cook at 5 BC he has a lengthy injury history and has not shown me he can take the pounding of a full season as a lead back.  But he’s talented when healthy.  

 

Some of the misinformation that gets thrown out there on these boards is so maddening. He missed time in 2017 with an ACL tear which is generally a non-contact injury and last season with a pulled hamstring which was a result of coming back from the ACL tear and not being quite ready. Adrian Peterson tore his ACL - can he not take the pounding of a full season as a lead back? Nothing that has happened has shown that about Cook either - none of his injuries were a result of taking a pounding. RBs get injured and past injuries (especially a torn ACL) is not predictive of what is to come.

Will Cook miss time this season? Possibly, but who knows? Will Christian McCaffrey miss time this season? Possibly, but who knows? Will Saquan Barkely miss time this season? Possibly, but who knows?......

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3 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

I'll give you three reason too:

1) Damian Williams in the 3rd/4th

2) Mack in the late 4th

3) Henry and Melvin in the 5th

 

Now do it with players not on my do not draft list and not using 8 team ADP. 

On topic, if ADP was meaningful everyone would autopick. If you think Cook (or any other player) will score a lot of points and there is a slim chance they are there for your next pick, you take them. 

Edited by huthut
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I don't want to be that guy but I hope in my next draft in a week someone takes Cook 5th overall *fingers crossed*

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Just now, Weebs210 said:

I don't want to be that guy but I hope in my next draft in a week someone takes Cook 5th overall *fingers crossed*

I personally won't, but I don't see a huge difference between Cook or David Johnson who often does go 5th. Between picks 5 and 18 or so drafts get variable because there is not a massive difference in player quality IMO. If you like Cook, and don't think he will be there at your second round pick, what else can you do?

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17 minutes ago, huthut said:

Now do it with players not on my do not draft list and not using 8 team ADP. 

On topic, if ADP was meaningful everyone would autopick. If you think Cook (or any other player) will score a lot of points and there is a slim chance they are there for your next pick, you take them. 

12 team Interboard Leagues

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23 minutes ago, huthut said:

On topic, if ADP was meaningful everyone would autopick. 

Like @Dr. Octopus, there are things in here that are like nails on a chalkboard to me. 

This is the one that really grinds my gears. And people keep saying it, or some variation of it. 

ADP is, in fact, 100% meaningful. And it has zero to do with whether we autopick or not. :rolleyes:

You just don’t understand the value of ADP or how to employ it.

But just because you, personally, don’t understand ADP, that doesn’t render it meaningless. It’s only means that you’ll fail to have a valuable tool at your disposal. 

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16 minutes ago, huthut said:

If you like Cook, and don't think he will be there at your second round pick, what else can you do?

Oh, i dunno, maybe take the #1-2 WR instead of the RB8-9 & then take a player of equal value to Cook on the way back, not getting hung up on any specific player & thus maximizing your draft equity - and maybe even get Cook in the second, because hey look - ADP indicates he might be there? 

Pretty useful tool, that ADP,  huh? 

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11 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Like @Dr. Octopus, there are things in here that are like nails on a chalkboard to me. 

This is the one that really grinds my gears. And people keep saying it, or some variation of it. 

ADP is, in fact, 100% meaningful. And it has zero to do with whether we autopick or not. :rolleyes:

You just don’t understand the value of ADP or how to employ it.

But just because you, personally, don’t understand ADP, that doesn’t render it meaningless. It’s only means that you’ll fail to have a valuable tool at your disposal. 

Hot Sauce Guy is dead on here.

You could conceivably get an average in which everyone drafts a player in exactly the same spot, but we all know that isn’t happening.

What is always left out of ADP is some concept of spread.  If I take a player at 2.4 and you take him at 2.6 his ADP is 2.5.  But if I take him at 1.3 and you take him at 3.7, he also gets an ADP of 2.5.  In the latter case, are we both “delusional,” or is there just a wide range of valuations on the player that isn’t captured by one number?

Pretty sure Zeke this year, Bell last year, had huge spreads around ADP.  The distribution most likely wasn’t even “normal” (bell-shaped).  Most likely many of these cases are “bimodal” (one early peak for the believers and one later peak for the doubters.

Fantasypros at least makes a pass at giving a sense of spread by giving us “lowest” and “highest” with their ADP, but that’s badly sensitive to outliers.  MFL tries too but is badly flawed by combining keeper, dynasty and redraft ADP together.  

Any site giving meaningful averages ought to be offering up a standard deviation or IQR to go with it.  Then we could make meaningful statements like “You are taking Cook 3 standard deviations ahead of his mean.  He’ll probably last a while longer.”  Instead of deciding that he’s a reach at 1.12 because his ADP is 2.5.

Edited by Arodin
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2 minutes ago, Arodin said:

Fantasypros at least makes a pass at giving a sense of spread by giving us “lowest” and “highest” with their ADP, but that’s badly sensitive to outliers.  MFL tries too but is badly flawed by combining keeper, dynasty and redraft ADP together.  

 

It's pretty simple though on the MFL ADP link to change the parameters to only include redraft leagues, ppr vs non ppr, mocks vs real drafts, and even the dates the data was pulled from (would make zeke data more accurate if you only look at drafts post aug 15 for example).

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9 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

You putting more emphasis on RBs doesn’t mean ADP is wrong. 

ADP is neither right nor wrong. It is ADP. It is...what it is. 😳

players are drafted in 10s, 100s, or 1000s of leagues for a given timeframe. 

The average place those players are taken = ADP.

how can it be “wrong”?  It’s the average. 

:doh: 

I didn't mean it like that.  I mean you can draft a better team if you don't get overly influenced on ADP on a few handful of players.  Trust me, I understand it and how to draft a great team year after year, you just dissect my words more than is necessary, or I'm not conveying it as I mean to.

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5 minutes ago, Deamon said:

It's pretty simple though on the MFL ADP link to change the parameters to only include redraft leagues, ppr vs non ppr, mocks vs real drafts, and even the dates the data was pulled from (would make zeke data more accurate if you only look at drafts post aug 15 for example).

Experience has shown that their sorting algorithm is badly flawed.  Mainly I think because they don’t separate deep and shallow keepers and lump them both into the dynasty or redraft bin.  I shouldn’t be seeing Josh Jacobs with a minimum pick of “1.1” in the redraft sort, but I do.  And I doubt his mom plays redraft on MFL.  

He has a “1.1” minimum in every format, which reduces the value of that kind of data for everyone else as well.

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1 minute ago, N Zone said:

I didn't mean it like that.  I mean you can draft a better team if you don't get overly influenced on ADP on a few handful of players.  Trust me, I understand it and how to draft a great team year after year, you just dissect my words more than is necessary, or I'm not conveying it as I mean to.

You said,, “ADP is wrong” and then went on to add that it is wrong because you “put more emphasis on RBs”.

how is that dissecting your words? 

Like the concept of ADP, words have a generally agreed upon meaning. I can only go by what you wrote. :shrug:

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3 minutes ago, Arodin said:

Experience has shown that their sorting algorithm is badly flawed.  Mainly I think because they don’t separate deep and shallow keepers and lump them both into the dynasty or redraft bin.  I shouldn’t be seeing Josh Jacobs with a minimum pick of “1.1” in the redraft sort, but I do.  And I doubt his mom plays redraft on MFL.  

He has a “1.1” minimum in every format, which reduces the value of that kind of data for everyone else as well.

That’s the example that’s always bugged me. Would be nice if we could exclude keeper/dynasty drafts from the equation. 

That sort of thing skews the numbers & averages are effected by a “Kyler Murray early 1.03” selection. 

Spot on. 

IDP leagues likely throw several wrenches into the works as well, since defensive players start going as early as the 4th-5th round. 

What marginally saves it from being GIGO is that the majority of leagues are redraft. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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3 minutes ago, Arodin said:

Experience has shown that their sorting algorithm is badly flawed.  Mainly I think because they don’t separate deep and shallow keepers and lump them both into the dynasty or redraft bin.  I shouldn’t be seeing Josh Jacobs with a minimum pick of “1.1” in the redraft sort, but I do.  And I doubt his mom plays redraft on MFL.  

He has a “1.1” minimum in every format, which reduces the value of that kind of data for everyone else as well.

I'm confused here.  They completely take keeper leagues out of their redraft bin. 

EDT:    Oh ok I see what you mean now.  Ya I'm not sure about that Min pick thing.  Even the chargers defense has a min pick of 2.  Hmmm.

Edited by Deamon

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Just now, Deamon said:

I'm confused here.  They completely take keeper leagues out of their redraft bin. 

If I had to guess there are plenty of keeper leagues using the “keep at draft position minus 2” or some such algorithm that are putting keepers into the draft manually.  To mfl these look like redraft leagues since the keepers are being done by commish...but I could see Jacobs going 1.1 in a “keep 8 at two spots behind last year’s round.”  Hard to see how he’s going 1.1 anywhere in a true redraft.

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Just now, Deamon said:

I'm confused here.  They completely take keeper leagues out of their redraft bin. 

If that’s the case, are you saying all those Josh Jacobs 1.01 picks are just drunk Raider fans? 😳

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3 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That’s the example that’s always bugged me. Would be nice if we could exclude keeper/dynasty drafts from the equation. 

That sort of thing skews the numbers & averages are effected by a “Kyler Murray early 1.03” selection. 

Spot on. 

What marginally saves it from being GIGO is that the majority of leagues are redraft. 

 

5 minutes ago, Arodin said:

Experience has shown that their sorting algorithm is badly flawed.  Mainly I think because they don’t separate deep and shallow keepers and lump them both into the dynasty or redraft bin.  I shouldn’t be seeing Josh Jacobs with a minimum pick of “1.1” in the redraft sort, but I do.  And I doubt his mom plays redraft on MFL.  

He has a “1.1” minimum in every format, which reduces the value of that kind of data for everyone else as well.

Just tried some things... if you actually go to "mock drafts only" it significantly fixes things by quite a bit.  (Jacobs had a min pick of 1 and max pick of 87 originally, both way too low.  Now it's between 20 and 45).  I used to exclude Mocks because people messed around in them more, but thinking now maybe just looking at mocks is the way to get rid of the keeper leagues or weird outlayers affecting the data.

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1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

Average draft position is wrong as far as how the players actually end up performing. Always is and always will be.

 Which is fine, because that’s not what the tool is used for. 

ADP =/= player projections. 

ADP =/= predictions

ADP = ADP

If you use ADP as a tool to determine where the majority of fantasy managers select a player, it can help you make a tough decision with more confidence to take Player A over Player B because player B might last another round. Or you can identify an alternative to Player B who might last another round. 

Because all you’re using it for is determining their average draft position. 

ADP isn’t wrong, fantasy managers projections for players are frequently wrong.  There’s a  huge difference. 

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2 minutes ago, Deamon said:

 

Just tried some things... if you actually go to "mock drafts only" it significantly fixes things by quite a bit.  (Jacobs had a min pick of 1 and max pick of 87 originally, both way too low.  Now it's between 20 and 45).  I used to exclude Mocks because people messed around in them more, but thinking now maybe just looking at mocks is the way to get rid of the keeper leagues or weird outlayers affecting the data.

Yeah but mocks are so often garbage. 

When I’m in a mock & I see someone take a Josh Jacobs 1.03 and say “I’m just trying something out.” I bounce. Renders the value of that mock null. 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Yeah but mocks are so often garbage. 

When I’m in a mock & I see someone take a Josh Jacobs 1.03 and say “I’m just trying something out.” I bounce. Renders the value of that mock null. 

I agree and do the same.  But looking at this, out of 300 mocks, only 4 players were selected #1.   So it seems to do the job pretty well.

I don't really mock on MFL very much, but usually it's just you and a computer so I don't think too many people are ####### around on them or leaving after a couple picks.  It definitely looks like a more accurate adp list when you use mocks just from the eye test.

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4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 Which is fine, because that’s not what the tool is used for. 

ADP =/= player projections. 

ADP =/= predictions

ADP = ADP

If you use ADP as a tool to determine where the majority of fantasy managers select a player, it can help you make a tough decision with more confidence to take Player A over Player B because player B might last another round. Or you can identify an alternative to Player B who might last another round. 

Because all you’re using it for is determining their average draft position. 

ADP isn’t wrong, fantasy managers projections for players are frequently wrong.  There’s a  huge difference. 

Of course ADP is what it is. That does not mean it is not wrong.

The players will perform differently than how they are drafted. So getting value for your picks based on group think is really just that. Doesn't mean it was the best pick you could have made. Because we do not know the future. We are only guessing. 

So the whole argument that it is wrong to deviate from the market because ADP says so doesn't really resonate with me.

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4 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Of course ADP is what it is. That does not mean it is not wrong.

It can’t be wrong. It’s math. 1+10 averages out to 5. That’s going to be correct 100/100 times. It’s an average. Averages aren’t right or wrong. They’re averages. 

Quote

The players will perform differently than how they are drafted. So getting value for your picks based on group think is really just that. Doesn't mean it was the best pick you could have made. Because we do not know the future. We are only guessing. 

Correct. And that’s still not what ADP is for.

If used optimally, ADP will help you better consider the statement you just made, by allowing you to identify groupthink & outliers. Groupthink players may not be deserving of their average pick. The outlier May be a 4th round target you believe has 2nd round value.

that doesn’t mean you should take him in the 2nd round, it just means you get a better player in the 4th by knowing where the herd is taking them. And sure, maybe you reach a little for them because you’re convinced they’re a better value. 

But the more you reach for a player, the less inherent draft-day value that player has. Real world value of that player is a constant. 

Quote

So the whole argument that it is wrong to deviate from the market because ADP says so doesn't really resonate with me.

No one is arguing this. 

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

It can’t be wrong. It’s math. 1+10 averages out to 5. That’s going to be correct 100/100 times

Let me be “that one.”  1+10 = 11, which, when divided by 2, yields 5.5.

Under most protocols, that rounds to 6, not 5.

(It’s almost September and I’m a math teacher by trade, so I’m duty-bound to make this post despite agreeing 100% with your actual point.)

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33 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Oh, i dunno, maybe take the #1-2 WR instead of the RB8-9 & then take a player of equal value to Cook on the way back, not getting hung up on any specific player & thus maximizing your draft equity - and maybe even get Cook in the second, because hey look - ADP indicates he might be there? 

Pretty useful tool, that ADP,  huh? 

But WRs like JuJu, Hill, Evans, OBJ, Brown... fall to that second round spot in many drafts. Would anyone be shocked if one of them finish as WR1 or WR2 and Hopkins or Adams end up as WR8 or WR9?

ADP is how the general population is drafting - and of course it's a useful tool - but it becomes a self fufillig prophecy to some extent because people start following it almost blindly. The draft "value" will derive from what the actual results will be at season's end. The "value" during the draft is artificial based on ADP - ADP does not generally reflect what happens at season's end and generally speaking its based on what happened in the prior season. First or second round picks bust all the time.

That's why the whole concept of reaching (to a certain extent) is a falsehood. Without getting so hung up on the subject of this thread, Dalvin Cook, generally speaking the whole concept of reaching is overblown. Like I said earlier VBD drafting contradicts ADP - but of course your projections have to be accurate and generally speaking none of us will get it exactly right.

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2 minutes ago, Arodin said:

Let me be “that one.”  1+10 = 11, which, when divided by 2, yields 5.5.

Under most protocols, that rounds to 6, not 5.

I hate you soooooooo much. 

Also not really, I :wub: you for this dedication. 

I knew I was gonna get grief the second I typed that. 

2 minutes ago, Arodin said:

(It’s almost September and I’m a math teacher by trade, so I’m duty-bound to make this post despite agreeing 100% with your actual point.)

all good. ;) 

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13 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

But WRs like JuJu, Hill, Evans, OBJ, Brown... fall to that second round spot in many drafts. Would anyone be shocked if one of them finish as WR1 or WR2 and Hopkins or Adams end up as WR8 or WR9?

ADP is how the general population is drafting - and of course it's a useful tool - but it becomes a self fufillig prophecy to some extent because people start following it almost blindly. The draft "value" will derive from what the actual results will be at season's end. The "value" during the draft is artificial based on ADP - ADP does not generally reflect what happens at season's end and generally speaking its based on what happened in the prior season. First or second round picks bust all the time.

That's why the whole concept of reaching (to a certain extent) is a falsehood. Without getting so hung up on the subject of this thread, Dalvin Cook, generally speaking the whole concept of reaching is overblown. Like I said earlier VBD drafting contradicts ADP - but of course your projections have to be accurate and generally speaking none of us will get it exactly right.

I don’t disagree with this.

there are outliers, breakout candidates,, busts & everything in between.  

Larry Johnson was a 6-7th round pick the year Priest Holmes went down. Obviously his ADP was not an accurate predictor of his real world performance. 

But that doesn’t mean managers should have taken LJ 1.01 that year, though his presence might have meant owners shouldn’t have taken Priest 1.02 that year.

When drafting it’s important to have as many tools at one’s disposal as possible. 

But even more important is knowing how to use them, and also how to weight those tools in order to prioritize them.

We all have a process. Mine is to consult expert projections from folks I respect who have a good track record, then do research on players I specifically like to see if I agree with the experts. I’ll then reorder & make some projections of my own. 

I’ll then look at ADP to see how the masses are pricing those players. If it’s too high in my estimation, I’ll keep that player on my board but will only draft them if they slide past their ADP to what I believe is fair pricing. Or similarly if I see a player going much later than I value them, I’ll target them for the value.

so I’m using projections, expert insight, player preference, and then, lastly, ADP as a guidepost to where the herd is taking that player. 

There’s no one perfect tool, and ADP is pretty much the least valuable of the tools. But it can have value.

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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25 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

No one is arguing this. 

 

That is exactly what you are telling the OP.

That they are wrong to take Cook at pick 1.05 because ADP.

I disagree.

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Just now, Biabreakable said:

That is exactly what you are telling the OP.

That they are wrong to take Cook at pick 1.05 because ADP.

I disagree.

No. Not by a country mile. 

I am telling the OP they’re wrong to take Cook at 1.05 because of projections. 

I am using ADP to determine who he could have at 1.05-1.06 instead, and saying I believe those options would have more value. (By my estimation) and moreover, that because of where most folks take most players, they likely wouldn’t suffer a drop-.off in the 2nd, and might even get Cook there (again, because ADP indicates that might be possible)

oversimplifying this to suggest it’s all about ADP is inaccurate. 

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9 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

No. Not by a country mile. 

I am telling the OP they’re wrong to take Cook at 1.05 because of projections. 

I am using ADP to determine who he could have at 1.05-1.06 instead, and saying I believe those options would have more value. (By my estimation) and moreover, that because of where most folks take most players, they likely wouldn’t suffer a drop-.off in the 2nd, and might even get Cook there (again, because ADP indicates that might be possible)

oversimplifying this to suggest it’s all about ADP is inaccurate. 

So you think people should draft because of projections?

I did scroll back through the thread. I do not see you making this argument anywhere. You are talking about ADP and telling people they don't understand it.

The ADP is not based on projections. It is based on where people are drafting the players.

Here is some ADP from 2018

Top 24 picks by ADP and actual finish (not including QB)

1 Todd Gurley  3

2 David Johnson 24

3 LeVeon Bell didnt play all year

4 Antonio Brown 10

5 Ezekiel Elliott 6

6 Alvin Kamara 4

7 Saquon Barkley 2

8 DeAndre Hopkins 5

9 Melvin Gordon 19

10 Leonard Fournette 115

11 Odell Beckham Jr 29

12 Kareem Hunt 30

13 Christian McCaffrey 1

14 Julio JonesWR 7

15 Dalvin Cook 74

16 Michael Thomas 11

17 Keenan Allen 22

18 Davante Adams 9

19 Devonta Freeman only played 2 games really low

20 Jordan Howard 54

21 Rob Gronkowski 99

22 A.J. Green 79

23 Joe Mixon 25

24 Tyreek Hill 8

 

14 out of 24 of these players actually did finish in the top 24. That is 58% so ADP is more accurate than a coin flip although not by much.

If the reason to not draft Cook at pick 1.05 is because of projections. What is the projection for Cook? That has not been discussed here at all.

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28 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

So you think people should draft because of projections?

I did scroll back through the thread. I do not see you making this argument anywhere. You are talking about ADP and telling people they don't understand it.

The ADP is not based on projections. It is based on where people are drafting the players.

Here is some ADP from 2018

Top 24 picks by ADP and actual finish (not including QB)

1 Todd Gurley  3

2 David Johnson 24

3 LeVeon Bell didnt play all year

4 Antonio Brown 10

5 Ezekiel Elliott 6

6 Alvin Kamara 4

7 Saquon Barkley 2

8 DeAndre Hopkins 5

9 Melvin Gordon 19

10 Leonard Fournette 115

11 Odell Beckham Jr 29

12 Kareem Hunt 30

13 Christian McCaffrey 1

14 Julio JonesWR 7

15 Dalvin Cook 74

16 Michael Thomas 11

17 Keenan Allen 22

18 Davante Adams 9

19 Devonta Freeman only played 2 games really low

20 Jordan Howard 54

21 Rob Gronkowski 99

22 A.J. Green 79

23 Joe Mixon 25

24 Tyreek Hill 8

 

14 out of 24 of these players actually did finish in the top 24. That is 58% so ADP is more accurate than a coin flip although not by much.

If the reason to not draft Cook at pick 1.05 is because of projections. What is the projection for Cook? That has not been discussed here at all.

I refer to projections in (at least) 3 posts on this very page. I think that counts as “anywhere”

:doh: 

I also clearly explain why I used ADP to recommend against taking Cook at 1.05 - in part. 

But hey - reading comprehension isn’t for everyone I guess. :shrug:

Have a nice day. 

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52 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

If the reason to not draft Cook at pick 1.05 is because of projections. What is the projection for Cook? That has not been discussed here at all.

Cook is a perfect example of why projections are dumb.  Kubiak rb with oodles of talent but he gets hurt every year

If he stays healthy i project him to be a star

If he doesn't he's an anchor

Do you project that guy for what you think he can do? For his floor?  Or do you fudge the numbers? 

If you're playing best ball do you use different projections than 16 team leagues or 10 teams?  

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28 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I refer to projections in (at least) 3 posts on this very page. I think that counts as “anywhere”

:doh: 

I also clearly explain why I used ADP to recommend against taking Cook at 1.05 - in part. 

But hey - reading comprehension isn’t for everyone I guess. :shrug:

Have a nice day. 

I went back and I see you mention projections in a post on page 3 of the thread.

No where has there been anyone including the OP stating projections for Cook in this thread.

Seems like those numbers would need to be pretty high to justify the 5th overall pick.

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8 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Cook is a perfect example of why projections are dumb.  Kubiak rb with oodles of talent but he gets hurt every year

If he stays healthy i project him to be a star

If he doesn't he's an anchor

Do you project that guy for what you think he can do? For his floor?  Or do you fudge the numbers? 

If you're playing best ball do you use different projections than 16 team leagues or 10 teams?  

Ha!!

Well I see any projection (or guess) as a pretty wide range of outcomes. I think it is helpful to have an idea of a players ceiling as well as a idea about their floor. 

To simplify things this range of outcomes is usually represented as the medium value of that range.

If a person is drafting Dalvin Cook as a top 5 pick then they should have him projected for 2000k combined yards and double digit TD to get him there.

The scoring and starting requirements changes things a ton. Especially the number of teams and starting requirements. If you use VBD this changes the relative value of players dramatically.

My cousin was doing a 10 team draft and was thinking about taking a back up QB in the 8th round as BPA. I told him not to bother because there will be too many good QB available on the waiver wire in that format. He begun to realize he shouldnt have drafted his QB so early and that he should have drafted some WR sooner.

In a 16 team league every pick matters. It is so different than a 10 team stud shuffler.

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5 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I went back and I see you mention projections in a post on page 3 of the thread.

No where has there been anyone including the OP stating projections for Cook in this thread.

Seems like those numbers would need to be pretty high to justify the 5th overall pick.

Except that’s not the point. 

The point is that there are tools. We can use them to determine both who’s worth what (projections) and how the fantasy community values them (ADP) along with personal preference (gut check) and draft style (philosophy). 

I’m not saying anyone is wrong to take anyone. Take whoever the F you want. I’m saying you have a better chance of maximizing value if you use the tools that are available. 

And my tools say reaching a full round for a player you might get in the 2nd anyway isn’t maximizing on value. 

Honestly - just go read my responses .I'm tired of repeating myself in here. . 

If you disagree, great - may you land Cook at 1.05 in all your drafts. I honestly don’t care any more. 

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