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Am I crazy for considering Cook at 1.5?

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We probably agree about most of this. It may just be differences in semantics really.

ADP can be viewed as the price of the asset. This is the perceived value of the player.

That is not the same as the actual value of the player (which is unknown).

One can use projections and there are many different methods that can be employed to do this. Some may be more accurate than others, but none of them are accurate. The ADP is also not accurate.

Mike Clay projections

I respect Clays work but his rankings do not really make sense as he has Tyreek Hill projected for more points than Odell Beckham yet he still ranks Hill a spot after Beckham for some reason not reflected in the projections. And so on. This is just one example of this inconsistency.

From a VBD perspective (which Clay does not seem to be using) the WR are ranked too high. I am not sure exactly why that is but the RB are providing more VBD than the WR are and it seems like that should push some of the WR a bit.

As far as Cook Clay has him projected for 206 points and he ranks Cook 19th overall. This is right in line with Cooks ADP of 19 (2.07) this is worth 20 VBD

By VBD using Clays projections there are 19 WR and 9 RB who provide more than 20 VBD that Cook does. That is 28 players not counting QB or TE and based on VBD and these projections Cook should only be ranked 30th overall or so. Yet he has him ranked 19.

I just bring up all of this to point out that even the smarter than average bears are far from getting this right and to follow ADP blindly just means that you will have a lot of company. It won't make you a more successful fantasy manager doing so.

Edited by Biabreakable

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55 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I went back and I see you mention projections in a post on page 3 of the thread.

No where has there been anyone including the OP stating projections for Cook in this thread.

Seems like those numbers would need to be pretty high to justify the 5th overall pick.

He didn’t mention the word, but a statement like “he could be a top 5 back” is essentially stating a projection.

I understood HSG to be addressing the notion of drafting players based on how one expects them to score as using “projections” vs. drafting based on whether other people are valuing him as using “adp.”

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2 minutes ago, Arodin said:

He didn’t mention the word, but a statement like “he could be a top 5 back” is essentially stating a projection.

I understood HSG to be addressing the notion of drafting players based on how one expects them to score as using “projections” vs. drafting based on whether other people are valuing him as using “adp.”

To me stating a player is in the top 5 is not a projection, Its vague. But I can see how others might see it that way. A top 5 pick should provide a lot of value to your team to be worth more than all but 4 other players.

People quantify these values so differently it is pretty hard to get on the same page.

I agree that some people draft based on their projections and some draft based on ADP but I think with everyone it is a mixture of both. People do focus on ADP much more than they do projections from my perspective.

I do take this topic a bit personal because I used to be asked to participate in mock drafts that folks at some prominent fantasy sites would use as their ADP for dynasty.

In one of these I took Jay Ajayi like 6 rounds earlier than his ADP and the folks doing the mocks did not like that I drafted him so far from the ADP they are trying to assemble and so I was not invited to participate in these mocks again.

Of course Ajayi far outperformed the draft spot where I took him that year. But now my opinions are shunned because they did not comport with group think.

 

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3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

To me stating a player is in the top 5 is not a projection, Its vague. But I can see how others might see it that way. A top 5 pick should provide a lot of value to your team to be worth more than all but 4 other players.

People quantify these values so differently it is pretty hard to get on the same page.

I agree that some people draft based on their projections and some draft based on ADP but I think with everyone it is a mixture of both. People do focus on ADP much more than they do projections from my perspective.

I do take this topic a bit personal because I used to be asked to participate in mock drafts that folks at some prominent fantasy sites would use as their ADP for dynasty.

In one of these I took Jay Ajayi like 6 rounds earlier than his ADP and the folks doing the mocks did not like that I drafted him so far from the ADP they are trying to assemble and so I was not invited to participate in these mocks again.

Of course Ajayi far outperformed the draft spot where I took him that year. But now my opinions are shunned because they did not comport with group think.

 

You should probably get over that. Holding onto butthurt & getting defensive about topics like this on a discussion board is sorta unhealthy. It’s all just talk, friend. We all have our opinions. I’m not your enemy - I didn’t ask you to not mock draft with me again. :shrug:

I do like how you summarized & repeated several of the points I’ve already made in here about ADP,  projections & player value. How no tool is perfect & ADP is only a measure of the average & not an actual ranking. Because if you read through you’ll see I said that. A few times. ;) 

It’s only a shame that you still kind of missed the point. 

Even with your personal anecdote about Ajayi, you fall to acknowledge that by reaching for him by so many rounds you eliminate much of the value. Because you could have had him AND a few players ranked higher, with higher ADP. 

So even though you were correct about him, you still shouldn’t have picked him that high.  

Same with Cook in this topic. Being right about Cook doesn’t mean reaching for Cook is the right move.

but I’m retiring from this topic. 

have fun storming the castle! 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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10 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

We probably agree about most of this. It may just be differences in semantics really.

ADP can be viewed as the price of the asset. This is the perceived value of the player.

That is not the same as the actual value of the player (which is unknown).

One can use projections and there are many different methods that can be employed to do this. Some may be more accurate than others, but none of them are accurate. The ADP is also not accurate.

Mike Clay projections

I respect Clays work but his rankings do not really make sense as he has Tyreek Hill projected for more points than Odell Beckham yet he still ranks Hill a spot after Beckham for some reason not reflected in the projections. And so on. This is just one example of this inconsistency.

From a VBD perspective (which Clay does not seem to be using) the WR are ranked too high. I am not sure exactly why that is but the RB are providing more VBD than the WR are and it seems like that should push some of the WR a bit.

As far as Cook Clay has him projected for 206 points and he ranks Cook 19th overall. This is right in line with Cooks ADP of 19 (2.07) this is worth 20 VBD

By VBD using Clays projections there are 19 WR and 9 RB who provide more than 20 VBD that Cook does. That is 28 players not counting QB or TE and based on VBD and these projections Cook should only be ranked 30th overall or so. Yet he has him ranked 19.

I just bring up all of this to point out that even the smarter than average bears are far from getting this right and to follow ADP blindly just means that you will have a lot of company. It won't make you a more successful fantasy manager doing so.

To speak to the bold, I actually agree with Clay. If one has to do projections and rankings, they don't need to match perfectly. For example. Amari Cooper finished as WR 18 in standard last year but his consistency score was 24th. Cooper is a guy with big highs and lows. He will have 160/2 one week and then post 15 yards the next week. So maybe you have Cooper projected this year for 1250/7 and have Robert Woods projected for 1150/6. I think it is perfectly reasonable to still rank Woods ahead of Cooper a couple spots because you would prefer to draft Woods since he is more consistent week to week and you don't like the idea with Cooper that you are going to have to eat 5 or 6 weeks of <5 fantasy points. Another example could be Marlon Mack vs.Aaron Jones. One might have Mack projected for more points but due to the current uncertainty with Luck they might prefer Jones by a bit. Also when doing projections, how does the person handle injury? If we are comparing say Sammy Watkins and Sterling Shepard. If one doesn't like to project injury, Sammy would likely come out with better numbers. However, it's fair to be worried about Sammy's history of ailments and prefer the perceived safety of Shepard. 

As for VBD, it's only a good tool if you can accurately project fantasy points. So if we look at projections, it might show that Mixon has a better VBD than Michael Thomas but I think most would agree Michael Thomas comes with less risk and a safer floor. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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11 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

So even though you were correct about him, you still shouldn’t have picked him that high.  

This is where we disagree.

The return on investment was well worth the 6th or 8th round pick I used on him in the mock. He was the 11th highest scoring RB that year.

He was worth a 2nd round pick. I did wait. I could have drafted a WR instead who would have maybe been somewhere in the 30s.

No question he was worth the pick and the longer I wait the more I risk someone else scoops him up and gets the benefit instead of me.

I am talking about a draft in March or something too. The ADP for Ajayi rose to around where I drafted him by May. So was I wrong or just early?

I do understand what you are saying. In subsequent drafts that year I played a form of limbo trying to wait to draft him lower and lower as summer and fall transpired.

The ADP for Ajayi was really low then rose to round 6 or so then fell again after they signed Arian Foster which provided the second dip in value and additional buy window.

When a guy is outperforming the draft position by such a huge margin I don't see the harm in taking them earlier than ADP.

The ADP itself is changing over time. So who is to say Cook wont be a top 5 pick in 2020 after performing like one in 2019?

Would you then deem it acceptable to the ADP gods? Seriously it is almost like ADP is being treated as a litany by its acolytes and followers.

Edited by Biabreakable
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19 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Would you then deem it acceptable to the ADP gods? Seriously it is almost like ADP is being treated as a litany by its acolytes and followers.

With this statement I’m putting you on ignore. I’ve made it clear time and again that I am not a slave to ADP, yet you continue to beat this tired line into the ground like I’m some mindless lemming, unable to do anything but follow groupthink.

That’s just not part of a civil discussion. Have a nice day.

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Looked top 5 today. Meanwhile DJ and Arizona with another crappy performance. ADP is only a barometer to use. 

After the past two weeks, I am avoiding DJ at 5. 

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Coincidentally in my draft yesterday, the two players the OP brought up for the 1.05 pick, Dalvin Cook and Travis Kelce, went at the 1.12/2.01 turn. So under that very small anecdotal evidence 1.05 wouldn’t be a tremendous reach and it shows neither would be in play for him in the second round.

Of course this isn’t meant to show right or wrong on the original question or underlying discussion but just adds a little perspective.

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I drafted him 2.10 on the turn last night so his DP looks like a league dependent thing.  Talent and opportunity are there but he'll have to stay healthy.

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1 hour ago, infantsam said:

I drafted him 2.10 on the turn last night so his DP looks like a league dependent thing.  Talent and opportunity are there but he'll have to stay healthy.

I think pick 20 is within the usual +/-5 picks of him, I assume most ADPs are 12 teams which tends to drop him more towards 2.6 or so. 

As a general aside - I feel like it is not a reach if the player is not a very likely to be there at your next pick. Not default scoring and from a draft done in July, but going by the Fish Bowl app that tracks the stats and other interesting factoids, Cook would have a 2/3 chance at being available for the second round pick for #5, so while it is likely you would be able to get him, losing a 1/3 chance is by no means a statistical anomaly. Marvin Jones in the 3rd round is a reach, but Cook at #5? Ehhhh, kind of early, but you do you. 

I am in quite a few big leagues, 14, 16, 20 teams etc., and you have to reach for players you believe in. If you are picking #20 in a 20 team league and you think Derrick Henry is going to have a great year and get 350 points, you pick him at 20, even though there are players available who have ADPs closer to 20. 

Edited by huthut
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12 team PPR, just drafted. 20 year league, experienced managers. 

Cook went 2.09 to the 4 team.

Connor/Cook

lots of back end teams went WR/WR (like me at 1.08) 

nice start to a team. I think it’s a good example of “reaching” a little while still letting the draft come to him. 

 

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Just finished a 14 teamer and I ended up picking 14. Took Cook at 2.01. Hard to pass on Hill and Juju, but RBs were gonna be slim if I waited.  

But yeah, 5 is early. 

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1 minute ago, efactor said:

Just finished a 14 teamer and I ended up picking 14. Took Cook at 2.01. Hard to pass on Hill and Juju, but RBs were gonna be slim if I waited.  

But yeah, 5 is early. 

I wish Juju made it back to me. 1.08 in a 12-teamer & I started with Adams/Hill

felt like a bargain on Adams but man I wanted Juju on the way back. 

He went 1.10

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15 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I wish Juju made it back to me. 1.08 in a 12-teamer & I started with Adams/Hill

felt like a bargain on Adams but man I wanted Juju on the way back. 

He went 1.10

We went from 12 to 14 3 years ago. A huge difference when drafting on the back end. In a 12, I would have taken Juju but those  6 extra players gone make RBs slim pickings at the 3/4 turn. 

It hurt to pass on Juju and Hill. 

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4 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

12 team PPR, just drafted. 20 year league, experienced managers. 

Cook went 2.09 to the 4 team.

Connor/Cook

lots of back end teams went WR/WR (like me at 1.08) 

nice start to a team. I think it’s a good example of “reaching” a little while still letting the draft come to him. 

 

So you're saying Connor went at 1.4?

time to start a new "am I crazy for taking Connor at 1.4" thread? I’m honestly considering Connor at 1.5 since I'm not loving DJ and the Arizona offense (o-line). Sitting at 1.5, I’d much prefer going RB then WR at 2.8 (since I like the WRs coming back in the 2nd). Am I crazy for going Connor at 1.5?

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10 minutes ago, joey said:

So you're saying Connor went at 1.4?

time to start a new "am I crazy for taking Connor at 1.4" thread? I’m honestly considering Connor at 1.5 since I'm not loving DJ and the Arizona offense (o-line). Sitting at 1.5, I’d much prefer going RB then WR at 2.8 (since I like the WRs coming back in the 2nd). Am I crazy for going Connor at 1.5?

Well, Conner has been a 1st rounder. So it’s not that much of a reach when you consider in my draft the only other RBs after Conner in the 1st were Elliott (1.06) and then DJohnson (1.12) Chubb (2.02), then Cook went 2.06 & Mixon to the Connor owner.

so taking Conner (in my opinion) is a better choice than Mixon since they got Mixon as well. Most of the elite WR: went between 1.07 & 2.05. Hopkins 1.05 

Sometimes the draft just breaks like that. I don’t mind Conner there - Samuels scares me a little, but he’s in a better offense than Mixon, his team should play in more game flow positive situations for a RB. If you’re going RB, and not considering Elliott (I likely would) and don’t love David Johnson (many don’t) I don’t see why Conner wouldn’t be a good pick. Certainly better than Mixon, in my opinion. Love Mixon’s talent. Hate his situation. 

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Well, Conner has been a 1st rounder. So it’s not that much of a reach when you consider in my draft the only other RBs after Conner in the 1st were Elliott (1.06) and then DJohnson (1.12) Chubb (2.02), then Cook went 2.06 & Mixon to the Connor owner.

so taking Conner (in my opinion) is a better choice than Mixon since they got Mixon as well. Most of the elite WR: went between 1.07 & 2.05. Hopkins 1.05 

Sometimes the draft just breaks like that. I don’t mind Conner there - Samuels scares me a little, but he’s in a better offense than Mixon, his team should play in more game flow positive situations for a RB. If you’re going RB, and not considering Elliott (I likely would) and don’t love David Johnson (many don’t) I don’t see why Conner wouldn’t be a good pick. Certainly better than Mixon, in my opinion. Love Mixon’s talent. Hate his situation. 

Thanks for the reply and thoughts. 

Yes, if Zeke is there at 1.5, I’m likely taking him with recent positive vibes around Zeke  signing soon. 

I think I am leaning Connor at 1.5 at this point. 

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On 8/23/2019 at 10:51 PM, Biabreakable said:

If a person is drafting Dalvin Cook as a top 5 pick then they should have him projected for 2000k combined yards and double digit TD to get him there.

If you draft cook as a top 5 pick it doesn't have to be because you think he's going to outscore the field of top 20 guys.  It could mean you're more confident in him than others and you're willing to pay a premium for that. 

Like comparing cook and David johnson, is a really crazy to think that both teams have offensive line struggles, both are good players, both will have the offense run through them, and both have missed a lot of games recently but cook plays for a better team with a better offense that will score more points?  The cardinals up tempo offense could mean more opportunities but only if it's working.  

Or compare Joe Mixon and cook. I think cook has a higher ceiling but Mixon has a higher floor. Depending on league size and roster construction i might really prefer Mixon because or strongly prefer cook but back him up with a quality rb3. 

Cook vs lev bell - it's not a given that bell gets the same kind of volume he did before, or that bell is as good with a different line and different quarterback who has never thrown to a back like him or a different coaching staff that has never used their backs the way bell is used to in the running or passing game.  Plus we're looking at a pot smoker who sat out a year and is coming back older and to a suckier team. How hard is he going to work if they're 3-7 in November and his ankle is sprained?  

Every one of those tier 2 backs has some risk but cook probably has the clearest backup situation except maybe Conner. I'd be ok starting Mattison.  Who would you start if Mixon went down? Would you start any jet rb besides bell?  Any cards rb besides David Johnson? 

I understand why some people are pivoting to Hopkins or Adams in the mid first but I'm not sure that's the answer either.  I'm more confident in the tier 1 receivers than the tier 2 backs, and i like some of the tier 3 backs, so that's a real consideration too, but in leagues where you can start 3 or 4 rbs and don't have to start 3 receivers, I'm not looking to use my first on a receiver and push more good backs to the guys at 1.1 through 1.3/1.4. 

If  you really don't know which of those backs or receivers to have down for 2000 yards but think they are the next best group after the top 3 plus zeke, then your choices are take your favorite at 1.5 or take a receiver. Personally I think there's a bunch of very good backs and the main thing that will separate them in people's eyes next year will be their playoff performance and whether they get injured, same as most years. 

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Guy in my league took Cook at 1.09 (RB8), which is not insane. But with DJ still on the board??

(Bell 4, Conner 6, Chubb 8.)

I had the 10th pick. Might send him some Omaha steaks as a thank you.

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Last year I took tyreek hill over OBJ and was ridiculed by several posters here. This year OBJ is once again several spots higher than hill but I’ll once again take hull every time. ADP helps plan when you might take someone, but I’m really big on taking the guy I want even if it doesn’t make sense. Sometimes it doesn’t work out but that’s the case with any pick. 

Edited by Snorkelson

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I grabbed Cook in one of my auctions last night, so Cook at 1.5 for me is off the table. I don't like having all my eggs in one basket.

Shifting to Zeke, Hopkins, Chubb or Conner. 

Good luck to OP. 

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1 hour ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Who are your rbs?

Well, I actually went WR/WR/WR so my starting RBs are Carson/Montgomery

Having D.Adams/TyHill/Amari Cooper should help. 

Added Lockett in the early 6th, since he was too much of a value to pass up.

So my RB situation isn’t ideal, but it’s also what I signed up for in going WR-heavy. I took Murray as a BYE week filler, then stacked up on lottery tickets. Lockett will be my flex. 

Last year I was RB-heavy. Gurley/Gordon were solid all year - right up until they stopped playing and I got knocked out of the playoffs. :( 

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2 hours ago, bostonfred said:

If you draft cook as a top 5 pick it doesn't have to be because you think he's going to outscore the field of top 20 guys.  It could mean you're more confident in him than others and you're willing to pay a premium for that. 

Like comparing cook and David johnson, is a really crazy to think that both teams have offensive line struggles, both are good players, both will have the offense run through them, and both have missed a lot of games recently but cook plays for a better team with a better offense that will score more points?  The cardinals up tempo offense could mean more opportunities but only if it's working.  

Or compare Joe Mixon and cook. I think cook has a higher ceiling but Mixon has a higher floor. Depending on league size and roster construction i might really prefer Mixon because or strongly prefer cook but back him up with a quality rb3. 

Cook vs lev bell - it's not a given that bell gets the same kind of volume he did before, or that bell is as good with a different line and different quarterback who has never thrown to a back like him or a different coaching staff that has never used their backs the way bell is used to in the running or passing game.  Plus we're looking at a pot smoker who sat out a year and is coming back older and to a suckier team. How hard is he going to work if they're 3-7 in November and his ankle is sprained?  

Every one of those tier 2 backs has some risk but cook probably has the clearest backup situation except maybe Conner. I'd be ok starting Mattison.  Who would you start if Mixon went down? Would you start any jet rb besides bell?  Any cards rb besides David Johnson? 

I understand why some people are pivoting to Hopkins or Adams in the mid first but I'm not sure that's the answer either.  I'm more confident in the tier 1 receivers than the tier 2 backs, and i like some of the tier 3 backs, so that's a real consideration too, but in leagues where you can start 3 or 4 rbs and don't have to start 3 receivers, I'm not looking to use my first on a receiver and push more good backs to the guys at 1.1 through 1.3/1.4. 

If  you really don't know which of those backs or receivers to have down for 2000 yards but think they are the next best group after the top 3 plus zeke, then your choices are take your favorite at 1.5 or take a receiver. Personally I think there's a bunch of very good backs and the main thing that will separate them in people's eyes next year will be their playoff performance and whether they get injured, same as most years. 

Sure there is more to it than projections.

I think Mattison has looked good but the Bengals have some good back ups in Giovanni Bernard and Rodney Anderson. Also Boone has looked good and I think will win the RB 3 spot. If Cook is injured I think there would be more of a split between those two than Mattison just taking over.

You could go WR and there are some very good ones to take but the value of a top WR compared to a top RB might not pay off as much from a VBD perspective unless the WR you take is indeed a top guy. I think the quality RB while better than its been for a long time still dries up after the top 20 or so players, while the WR from 20-50 I see scoring closer to the top 20 WR than RB 20-50 will to the top 20 RBs.

I have taken Elliot a few times but the longer this holdout goes it has made me wonder if I should have gone with another RB instead. 

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55 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Well, I actually went WR/WR/WR so my starting RBs are Carson/Montgomery

Having D.Adams/TyHill/Amari Cooper should help. 

Added Lockett in the early 6th, since he was too much of a value to pass up.

So my RB situation isn’t ideal, but it’s also what I signed up for in going WR-heavy. I took Murray as a BYE week filler, then stacked up on lottery tickets. Lockett will be my flex. 

Last year I was RB-heavy. Gurley/Gordon were solid all year - right up until they stopped playing and I got knocked out of the playoffs. :( 

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Since he was mentioned and I guess this thread is somewhat discussing ADP stuff - I got Conner at 1.19 yesterday.

Edited by huthut
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26 minutes ago, huthut said:

Since he was mentioned and I guess this thread is somewhat discussing ADP stuff - I got Conner at 1.19 yesterday.

Love that value. That’s a huge league. :o 

Unless you meant 1.09? 

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4 minutes ago, huthut said:

Nah, 20 teams.

That’s gotta be challenging to draft. 

Out of curiosity, can you list your first 4 picks? 

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Conner, Kerryon Johnson, Tyler Boyd, OJ Howard (I regret getting Howard over a WR, could have got a reasonable TE next round).

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2 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Sure there is more to it than projections.

I think Mattison has looked good but the Bengals have some good back ups in Giovanni Bernard and Rodney Anderson. Also Boone has looked good and I think will win the RB 3 spot. If Cook is injured I think there would be more of a split between those two than Mattison just taking over.

You could go WR and there are some very good ones to take but the value of a top WR compared to a top RB might not pay off as much from a VBD perspective unless the WR you take is indeed a top guy. I think the quality RB while better than its been for a long time still dries up after the top 20 or so players, while the WR from 20-50 I see scoring closer to the top 20 WR than RB 20-50 will to the top 20 RBs.

I have taken Elliot a few times but the longer this holdout goes it has made me wonder if I should have gone with another RB instead. 

If Mixon goes down I'm not sure which rb gets the bulk of touches.  I'm not even sure one does. And while there's several good ones, I'm not sure I'd want to start any of them unless things were really bleak. 

They might all be more talented than mattison but mattison looks good enough that I'd consider him a low end rb2 if cook was hurt. Maybe even a little better because I like the system. 

I agree about Elliott.  I was in the of course you take Elliott 1.4 camp until this latest news.  Now I can see letting him side into the second. I don't have a lot of separation between the tier 2 rbs and I'd probably take any of them in the first over Elliott in most formats.  

 

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I had to choose between keeping Cook and keeping Bell in my keeper league. It was really close and I waffled back and forth, but eventually kept Cook. Both have question marks, but I just feel like Cook has the higher ceiling at this point.

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34 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

I had to choose between keeping Cook and keeping Bell in my keeper league. It was really close and I waffled back and forth, but eventually kept Cook. Both have question marks, but I just feel like Cook has the higher ceiling at this point.

What was the cost for keeping each, respectively?

i would also keep Cook. Better team around him, fresh legs, I worry about Bell a little since last time he came back (in PIT) he was really rusty with a 3.2 YPC ave, and now Jets are talking about RBBC early, which fits that same narrative. 

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35 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

What was the cost for keeping each, respectively?

i would also keep Cook. Better team around him, fresh legs, I worry about Bell a little since last time he came back (in PIT) he was really rusty with a 3.2 YPC ave, and now Jets are talking about RBBC early, which fits that same narrative. 

We have a pretty unique keeper system that simply assigns a point value for each year a player is kept (all players kept for 1 year=1 point, 2 years=2 points, etc with a cap on how many total points of value you can keep.

Bell and Cook each would cost me 40% of my keeper point budget. Conner cost me 20% of my budget.

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Not sure about the OP, but I just completed my draft from the 5 spot. PPR 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE

1.1 McCaffrey

1.2 Barkley

1.3 Kamara

1.4 Zeke

1.5 Hopkins

Pick 19 Cook ***Not my pick. Using as reference***

Pick 20 Chubb

Pick 29 D Williams

Pick 44 Ertz (Wasn't expecting this. May have hurt me at WR)

Pick 53 A Robinson

Pick 68 Montgomery

Pick 77 E Sanders

Pick 92 Baker

Pick 101 C Davis

Pick 116 Hunt

Pick 125 MVS

Pick 140 Rivers

So:

Baker Rivers

Chubb Williams Montgomery Ballage Hunt

Hopkins Robinson Sanders Davis MVS

Ertz Rudolph

Edited by Payne
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8 minutes ago, Payne said:

So:

Baker Rivers

Chubb Williams Montgomery Ballage Hunt

Hopkins Robinson Sanders Davis MVS

Ertz Rudolph

It’s almost as though ADP isn’t some groupthink that mindless zombies draft by, but a useful tool to indicate where certain players are being drafted in the majority of drafts. like some sort of.....average. :o 

Nice kooking team. Don’t love the RB depth but Hopkins/Chubb gives me a chub. :wub: 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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Told you all take Dalvin Cook at 1.05.  If you didn't you may have missed him in round 2.  Not worth that risk.  All you had to do was know the new Minnesota system/offensive-philosophy, Dalvin Cook's ability and the fact he's healthy this year.  Boom!  He's on my team.  Auction draft, paid up to get him and it was close to what Zeke goes for.  (Zeke was kept).  I kept Saquon who I paid a lot for in last year's auction draft and people questioned me on that. 

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12 minutes ago, N Zone said:

Told you all take Dalvin Cook at 1.05.  If you didn't you may have missed him in round 2.  Not worth that risk.  All you had to do was know the new Minnesota system/offensive-philosophy, Dalvin Cook's ability and the fact he's healthy this year.  Boom!  He's on my team.  Auction draft, paid up to get him and it was close to what Zeke goes for.  (Zeke was kept).  I kept Saquon who I paid a lot for in last year's auction draft and people questioned me on that. 

No, it’s still a bad take & a bad pick. I was actually waiting for this “I told you so” after a good week 1. But it makes the take/pick  no better. 

The reason remains: several examples in here of people who got Hopkins/Cook or Hopkins/Chubb or other top 1-2 combinations anyway. Because ADP is a useful tool that informs us that Cook would have very likely been there at 2.08. 

Reaching for Cook by a full round is made no better for the fact that he played well. He could have had a 200 yard/3 TD game and it’s still a bad pick at 1.05

See, no one in here argued that he would  or wouldn’t play well. It was expected he would. But he had an ADP a round lower for perceived injury risk. 

So you could have had Cook & another top player instead of reaching for Cook.

And none of that has changed. 

But i’m happy for you that Cook worked out well this week. Good luck to you this season. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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You could still get a great pick in round 2 and round 3.  I disagree with you.  In an ultra competitive league where the owners are at the top level Cook would be gone by the end of round 1.  But maybe in your leagues it works to wait.

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1 minute ago, N Zone said:

You could still get a great pick in round 2 and round 3.  I disagree with you.  In an ultra competitive league where the owners are at the top level Cook would be gone by the end of round 1.  But maybe in your leagues it works to wait.

lol

 

this will not end well

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28 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

No, it’s still a bad take & a bad pick. I was actually waiting for this “I told you so” after a good week 1. But it makes the take/pick  no better. 

The reason remains: several examples in here of people who got Hopkins/Cook or Hopkins/Chubb or other top 1-2 combinations anyway. Because ADP is a useful tool that informs us that Cook would have very likely been there at 2.08. 

Reaching for Cook by a full round is made no better for the fact that he played well. He could have had a 200 yard/3 TD game and it’s still a bad pick at 1.05

See, no one in here argued that he would  or wouldn’t play well. It was expected he would. But he had an ADP a round lower for perceived injury risk. 

So you could have had Cook & another top player instead of reaching for Cook.

And none of that has changed. 

But i’m happy for you that Cook worked out well this week. Good luck to you this season. 

Cook was gone by the end of the first round in all five of my drafts. 

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2 minutes ago, kutta said:

Cook was gone by the end of the first round in all five of my drafts. 

Made it to 2.09 in my only snake draft. 

Wish i’d taken him 2.05 instead of Hill. :doh: 

None of this is remotely the point though. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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5 minutes ago, Wrigley said:

lol

 

this will not end well

Nah, I’m done. The horse is sufficiently dead. :deadhorse:

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Ok, last one. Might wanna check out Hopkins line from tonight. 

That + Chubb or Keenan Allen or many of the others you could have had in the 2nd is likely better than Cook + what you did get. 

Thats the point. 

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5 hours ago, Wrigley said:

lol

 

this will not end well

Actually, he is not wrong. Cook went in the 1st round of many high dollar "expert" leagues.

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49 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Ok, last one. Might wanna check out Hopkins line from tonight. 

That + Chubb or Keenan Allen or many of the others you could have had in the 2nd is likely better than Cook + what you did get. 

Thats the point. 

I am glad the hamster wheeels are still churning for you about this. That suggests you might be learning something.

I don't think anyone was drafting just for week one.

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