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Has Montgomery overtaken Jacobs as # 1 rookie RB (1 Viewer)

Ducegonads

Ducegonads

Footballguy
NFL 1st rd pick vs 3rd rd pick. Physically, the two a few pounds from twins & similar 40 times. Does the coach, team, opportunity (Cohen & Davis vs Martin & Richard) and the possible dysfunction around a team (Helmet boy) Raiders make Montgomery a more attractive player vs strait as advertised talent of Jacobs? Are they equals?

 
From DraftKings, 

The rookie out of Memphis put together one of the most efficient college careers ever. In 2018,averaged 8.2 yards on his 431 career carries. Additionally, Henderson scored 22 TDs, and he finished his career with 63 receptions at 12 yards a clip. 

Pretty telling. Crazy numbers but does Gurley's presence even with the arthritis reports and his contract have possible owners pumping the breaks on moving this guy into the #1 rookie RB spot? Moving up dynasty drafts but still lagging behind DM & JJ. Both appear more attractive now vs where he may be in 2021.

 
Choke said:
Always has been for me.

But we drafted him #1 last weekend.  In May my partner wanted Jacobs while I was higher on Monty. He came around a few weeks before draft day. My next draft is my main draft (30 year, 16 tm, live) and I expect Monty to go in front of Jacobs there.
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I took Montgomery at pick 44 in my 16 team league. Jacobs went 8 picks earlier. I'm happy 

 
I love the dude & will be targeting him on Sunday. I’m kinda pissed about all the recent coverage - can’t they just #### for a few more days about him? Sheesh! 

 
I find Jacobs to be the more impressive talent and the last time Gruden had a good rookie RB (Cadillac Williams) he ran him into the ground. No chance I take Montgomery over Jacobs in any format.

Could he outscore him? There's a chance, but Jacobs is probably the better talent and there's no Cohen in Oakland. Jacobs should be able to pad his stats with catches.

 
Love the Gruden playing with a new toy vs Nagy playing the "guy that fits" card that brings this to a whole other level. Opp in favor of Jacobs, agreed.

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
come on doc
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we can come back to this in 3-4 years. Hes my rb1 by a lot. In fact hes my 1.1 and the next rb is 1.8 for me. I will clarify that I have lower expectations for this rb class than others; he would not be my rb1 in 2020 or rb2 in 2018. 

By the way, I've had a trade proposal sitting if you had any interest. 

 
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We were discussing this in the Montgonery thread in July.

From pure evaluation of the two players pre NFL draft I prefer Mongomery although they are the same tier.

Draft position and fit (opportunity) makes it Jacobs.

I think both will be useful players but Cohen more competition for opportunities than Rishard.

 
What is the deal with Jacobs? There is no buzz at all. He hasn't really appeared in Hard Knocks at all. 

 
Ilov80s said:
What is the deal with Jacobs? There is no buzz at all. He hasn't really appeared in Hard Knocks at all. 
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Yeah, thought that was weird myself, and unfortunate as you often see how he might be picking up the system and adjusting to NFL-caliber players in practice.

But he looked strong in his carries with the offensive first team in ARI. I couldn't care less if I don't see his face hamming it up or getting hazed on Hard Knocks as long as we get to see how he's faring in actual game play situations in the preseason.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Yeah, thought that was weird myself, and unfortunate as you often see how he might be picking up the system and adjusting to NFL-caliber players in practice.

But he looked strong in his carries with the offensive first team in ARI. I couldn't care less if I don't see his face hamming it up or getting hazed on Hard Knocks as long as we get to see how he's faring in actual game play situations in the preseason.
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True, just seemed weird none of the coaches have been talking about him, there’s no statements from Rotoworld or anything. Just total radio silence on him.

 
EBF said:
I find Jacobs to be the more impressive talent and the last time Gruden had a good rookie RB (Cadillac Williams) he ran him into the ground. No chance I take Montgomery over Jacobs in any format.

Could he outscore him? There's a chance, but Jacobs is probably the better talent and there's no Cohen in Oakland. Jacobs should be able to pad his stats with catches.
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I think there’s a bit more to it.

You like the Oakland OL more the Chicago? 

How about the overall offense? 

Oakland D good enough to keep games close? I know for sure the Bears D is.

i dunno. I’m hesitant to invest heavily in the Raiders. 

 
No doubt, slow press for Jacobs. The Raiders praise on JJ has been a little too quiet even with HBO camping out in Grudens back yard. Seems like all the news on Montgomery has been glowing. Bear's "In Love" with DM was huge click bait. Same feel with Henderson combined with some of the Gurley negative but still feel he's on the outside looking in as far as the #1 goes.

 
Ducegonads said:
No doubt, slow press for Jacobs. The Raiders praise on JJ has been a little too quiet even with HBO camping out in Grudens back yard. Seems like all the news on Montgomery has been glowing. Bear's "In Love" with DM was huge click bait. Same feel with Henderson combined with some of the Gurley negative but still feel he's on the outside looking in as far as the #1 goes.
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I hated that Montgomery hype article with the passion of 10 men. I feel like his ADP rose a full round while reading it. 

That said, it also jives with the “decreased snaps for Tarik Cohen” blurb. 

 
Ducegonads said:
No doubt, slow press for Jacobs. The Raiders praise on JJ has been a little too quiet even with HBO camping out in Grudens back yard. Seems like all the news on Montgomery has been glowing. Bear's "In Love" with DM was huge click bait. Same feel with Henderson combined with some of the Gurley negative but still feel he's on the outside looking in as far as the #1 goes.
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Almost like its on purpose

Gruden is a sly guy

 
As far as media coverage of Jacobs I thought I read or heard somewhere that he was hiding from the HBO cameras purposefully which seems like a smart move.

Griden did play Cadilac Williams a bit in preseason (I had to look that up) but as a dunasty owner of Williams on multiple teams at that time I remember it being pretty quiet about him before the regular season too.

 
All factors in play. AB, Cohen, coaches, etc. This is why I think it's closer than just NFL draft round. Could of made this a poll!

 
You can’t legislate usage

The consensus view all summer is Jacobs will lead all rookie RBs In touches, by a good margin. Every other rookie RB is currently on the low side of a time share or whose path to relevance requires an injury to the incumbent.

LT I always bet on talent. ST, opportunity is King.

 
Mystery Achiever said:
Josh Jacobs✔@iAM_JoshJacobs

If you wondering why I’m not on hardknocks it’s because I be hiding from them
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Now THIS , is awesome.  On several levels.  :excited:   (Well, maybe as a young rookie he went to Gruden and Raider management and said "As I'm trying to focus and get ready to help the team in every way I can as a rookie, I'd like to train away from the cameras and bull&$#%)

Not saying that happened, but it might have been a smart move if he asked for that protective bubble.....(Or Gruden suggested it)

 TZM

 
I had the choice of the 2. Some things I factored in beyond the obvious and previously mentioned:

I was researching Monty last year. Jacobs was late to the party. 

I weighed the idea of Jacobs low miles vs Monty’s proven workhorse. 

I determined that both were similar  measurables and weighed the quality of their College program.

In the end I determined I was taking Jacobs for the obvious carries but I didn’t actually want to and the fact he had not been a workhorse weighed heavily on my mind. 

I countered surrounding talent with the competition, Raiders might be behind often and Bears might grind it out. And I really didn’t want to invest in Raiders. Both tough divisions.

Draft capitol I disregarded because it was only in the end Jacobs got the hype and Chicago trades up. 

So I sold the owner below me who I knew would take the guy I didn’t that I would draft Jacobs unless he switched a later pick and traded up to my spot.

It worked. I got Monty and I gained a round on my next pick. 

FYI I play in a 5 keeper. 

 
If you're picking for a floor you take Jacobs.  If you want upside you choose between Williams, Sanders and Montgomery.  Williams will have the most receptions.  Sanders has to compete with Howard and Montgomery has to compete with Davis and Cohen.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
If you're picking for a floor you take Jacobs.  If you want upside you choose between Williams, Sanders and Montgomery.  Williams will have the most receptions.  Sanders has to compete with Howard and Montgomery has to compete with Davis and Cohen.
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I dunno. From my view, Jacobs has plenty of upside right now, perhaps even most in his class for 2019 at least, considering his usage (all downs, all zones) and competition (hardly any); and far from a safe floor with the Raiders' uber tough schedule and potential team fragility, given Chucky's unpredictable nature should they come outta the gate losing games soundly.

Raiders seem very binary heading into 2019, and that extends almost directly to a featured rookie like JJ. I would be just as unsurprised to see Jacobs flop hard as I would to see him finish as rookie of the year and a top ten fantasy RB.

That said, there is real upside here if the 50% turned-over roster makes for a significantly better Raiders in 2019. Those new names are almost exclusively upgrades in talent, on paper at least.

 
Montgomery hype from the coaches is almost as high as it was for Rashaad Penny headed into his rookie year!

Not quite to Joe Williams levels though.  No one is standing on tables for him or anything.

 
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I’ve always been a fan of Monty but I believe at the end of the year they both will be 1000 yard rushers. 

Tex

 
According to Fantasy Football Calculator Monty’s ADP is currently 1.01 and Jacobs is sitting at 1.01 as well. So the fantasy community is seeing them as equals.

Tex

 
I'd take Jacobs over Montgomery. I think Cohen will be a big problem for Montgomery though. Jacobs should see more work, and may just be a better talent anyway.

I think a case can be made for Miles Sanders over either of them. Best offense, best athletic profile, and possibly least long term competition with Howard only one a 1 year deal.

I think it really drops off after those 3.

 
travdogg said:
I think a case can be made for Miles Sanders over either of them. Best offense, best athletic profile, and possibly least long term competition with Howard only one a 1 year deal.
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My rookie draft is this weekend and I have the #1 pick. I struggle between which of these 3 RBs I want. I'm an Eagles fan trying desperately to keep the homer glasses off.

 
EBF said:
Could he outscore him? There's a chance, but Jacobs is probably the better talent and there's no Cohen in Oakland. Jacobs should be able to pad his stats with catches.
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Jalen Richard isn't as dynamic as Cohen but he's a proven weapon in the passing game and a better runner than Cohen.

 
Amused to Death said:
My rookie draft is this weekend and I have the #1 pick. I struggle between which of these 3 RBs I want. I'm an Eagles fan trying desperately to keep the homer glasses off.
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My rookie draft is this weekend and I have the #3 pick, and will be happy with whomever falls. I really think they are pretty interchangeable. 

 
travdogg said:
I'd take Jacobs over Montgomery. I think Cohen will be a big problem for Montgomery though. Jacobs should see more work, and may just be a better talent anyway.

I think a case can be made for Miles Sanders over either of them. Best offense, best athletic profile, and possibly least long term competition with Howard only one a 1 year deal.

I think it really drops off after those 3.
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A la Tyreek Hill? I expect Nagy to use Monty the way he used Hunt when he was in KC.

 
ty247 said:
I'll just leave this here...

https://www.playerprofiler.com/article/miles-sanders-fantasy-football-advanced-stats-metrics-analytics-profile/
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thanks I've read that before. good article. Sanders has me watching. Best o-line in football and all the other stuff the writer mentions.

I have the 2nd pick in a dynasty league, the #1 pick is a guy who is a Raiders' homer - I have zero chance at Jacobs he's going #1. for me it's between Sanders and Monty. and maybe Darwin Thompson if he lights it up again this week. 

Monty scares me a bit.he has talent no doubt, but the bears offense struggled at the tail of last season after tearing it up the first 2/3rds or the year. I'm worried that they regress offensively. Their defense is going to take a big hit - pagano is  no vic fangio.not even close. I like what i've seen from monty so far, have to see what happens this week.the talk has reached near-Royce Freeman levels from last season,only to watch him fizzle out.is monty next?!

philly has a better supporting cast, better coaching staff, better o-line, etc. and as the article points out pederson hasn't had a workhorse back - he's had a bunch of scrubs and cast-offs up to this point as philly's HC. 

DT is in one of the betst offenses, with the best QB but most importantly no real competition between himself and the lead role - Williams is a nobody RB just keeping the #1 spot warm for someone else.

 
JJ went at 4.2 and Montgomery and 4.5 in my latest basic scoring draft (no ppr).  I was a little surprised as I was eyeing them for shortly later.

 
Is still take Jacobs.  He got drafted higher into a situation where he’ll get a ton of touches.

i personally find preseason meaningless so I ignore it.  

 
Down Under said:
JJ went at 4.2 and Montgomery and 4.5 in my latest basic scoring draft (no ppr).  I was a little surprised as I was eyeing them for shortly later.
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Curious,  where was Sanders taken? His situation may be the best all around and his hype has begun to bubble while Montgomery's is at a boil. 

Tanner9919 said:
DT is in one of the betst offenses, with the best QB but most importantly no real competition between himself and the lead role - Williams is a nobody RB just keeping the #1 spot warm for someone else
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Loved this kid later in the draft but the word is out.

 
MooversShakers said:
I expect Nagy to use Monty the way he used Hunt when he was in KC.
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I'm beginning to wonder if the Nagy factor isn't being (vastly) overrated in FF circles.

Dreams of Nagy using Trey Burton as a Kelce-light in Chicago is what led to him being way overdrafted last year.  Hunt's usage was just as high when Nagy was out of town as it was when Nagy was the OC.  Likewise, Nagy failed to get half out of Mitch Trubisky as "he" got out of Alex Smith the year before.

Kelce, Hunt, Smith.  I think all of those guys may have had a lot more to do with Andy Reid than they did with Nagy.  Reid, not Nagy, is certainly the consistent variable in the success of TE/RB/QBs the last few years.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I'm beginning to wonder if the Nagy factor isn't being (vastly) overrated in FF circles.

Dreams of Nagy using Trey Burton as a Kelce-light in Chicago is what led to him being way overdrafted last year.  Hunt's usage was just as high when Nagy was out of town as it was when Nagy was the OC.  Likewise, Nagy failed to get half out of Mitch Trubisky as "he" got out of Alex Smith the year before.

Kelce, Hunt, Smith.  I think all of those guys may have had a lot more to do with Andy Reid than they did with Nagy.  Reid, not Nagy, is certainly the consistent variable in the success of TE/RB/QBs the last few years.
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Pretty sure Andy Reid has always called the plays for the offense.

 
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