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2019 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings

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Posted (edited)

And we're back!

In 2016, 2017 and 2018 we had a thread that folks seemed to find valuable so I am starting another version for 2019 - it's a living, ongoing list of potential King Makers - the idea is to be PREEMPTIVE on RBs most likely sitting on the Waiver Wire (depending upon league size, sharks or guppies, etc.).  The definition of this thread is generally re-draft.

To paraphrase @TZMarkie from 2016: "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys".

To paraphrase @Dr. Dan from 2019:  "A lotto ticket, to me, costs almost nothing, and is easily expendable for the next lotto ticket, but has potential to win you your season. ... Lotto tickets, in my mind, are easily cut from one week to the next."

Candidates for Season Changing RBs for re-draft 2019 ("King Maker"), completely unranked:

  • MIN - Alexander Mattison - NOV02 UPDATE: wanted to move this guy to the Too Late list as he is most likely rostered but in the Oct 29 On the Couch, Bloom's guest Rich Hribar stated that he believes that the #1 RB to target as a King Maker going forward in this season is Mattison, pending a (God forbid) D Cook injury - based on usage, opportunity and workload - so I'm leaving him here
  • BAL - Justice Hill - has been getting HUGE love on this thread - at the beginning of the season -
    • @TZMarkie wrote on SEPT 25:  "JUSTICE HILL is the ultimate end-of-bench lottery ticket."
    • HOWEVER...
      • UPDATE:  @wickster33 wrote (Oct 30) : "Is Justice Hill dead to us now?  I realize his usage has slipped to near nothingness, but he is still the dynamic guy we all saw in preseason.  I realize he needs an Ingram injury to sniff the field and still would have to contend with Gus, but is it really time to take him off the lottery list?"
        • UPDATE:  @Statorama wrote (Oct 30) :  "I bailed in my short bench league.  Had a choice between Hill and K Hunt.  It seems like a lot of the points Ingram gets are inside the 5, and IMO that's not Hill's game.  I had visions of them using Hill in a Sproles type role, but I'm just not getting the vibe that will materialize in the near future.  Just too many hurdles for him to jump over for my tastes.  He'd be more attractive if Gus Edwards was out of the picture, but it's also disheartening that he's playing second fiddle to Gus Edwards.  At the end of the day, if I really wanted a piece of the BAL backfield I don't think it would take a great deal to pry Ingram away."
        • UPDATE:  @yoman wrote (Oct 30) :  "Hill is definitely a player to keep in the periphery to see if his role increases but is not someone who is a must stash.  I own Ingram and he sits on my bench most weeks so I think you are spot on with your above analysis."
  • BAL - Gus Edwards per @IHEARTFF and @Casting Couch
  • DAL - Tony Pollard
    • UPDATE NOV 02:  Mentioned as a possible Season Changer by Bloom and guests in this week's podcasts
  • CLE - Kareem Hunt per @leftcoastheel and agreed by @Long Ball Larry
  • GB - Jamal Williams per @BobbyLayne - Sep 23/24: He is on all the pro FF sites as a reasonably high FA pickup this week
    • UPDATE OCT 3: carried off the field Sep 26 on a stretcher
    • UPDATE OCT 8: "Tra Carson brought in to spell Aaron Jones in GB, but that will likely change when Jamaal Williams is healed." per @Stompin' Tom Connors
    • UPDATE: Carson cut and lands in Detroit
    • UPDATE NOV 2: has had 2 decent games in a row with limited usage (scored in both)
  • ARI - Chase Edmonds - quoting @BobbyLayne : "Chase could easily see 150-175 touches even if DJ stays healthy"
    • - NOV02 UPDATE: injured, and Johnson in front of him is injured, ARI traded for Drake who started on Halloween
  • PIT - Jaylen Samuels (and FBG Jaylen Samuels page)
    • UPDATE OCT 8: Samuels had knee surgery - expected out 1 month
    • UPDATE OCT 27:  "Samuels close to full health"
    • UPDATE NOV 02:  Conner injured, Snell injured - could be the Man this weekend
  • LAR - John Kelly
  • JAX - Ryquell Armstead per @IHEARTFF -
    • UPDATE per @Hot Sauce Guy  - A. Blue cut, making Armstead the clear backup to Fournette -
    • UPDATE (Sep 23/24) all the podcasts are saying that JAX cannot block
    • UPDATE NOV 02:  Mentioned as a possible Season Changer by Bloom and guests in this week's podcasts
  • CAR - Reggie Bonnafon
    • UPDATE OCT 8: "I think Reggie Bonnafon may have leap-frogged Jordan Scarlett as the backup to own in CAR." per @Stompin' Tom Connors
    • UPDATE NOV 02:  Mentioned as a possible Season Changer by Bloom and guests in this week's podcasts
  • IND - J Wilkins per @Long Ball Larry
    • UPDATE NOV 02:  Mentioned as a possible Season Changer by Bloom and guests in this week's podcasts - so I added him to the King Maker List
  • LAR - Darrell Henderson - Rams traded up with the Bucs to select Darrell Henderson with the No. 70 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Honorable Mention - (super) losely ranked (by yours truly):

  • MIA - Patrick Laird
  • DET - Bo Scarbrough per @Chaka
  • IND - Jonathan Williams
  • PHI - Miles Sanders per @themeistersinger
  • DET - Mckissic per @SoBeDad
  • KCC - Darwin Thompson
  • KC - Darrel Williams - got non-trivial touches while Damien Williams was out last week (Sep 22) and McCoy hobbled
  • NE - Damien Harris - active Sun Sep 22 for the first time this season
    • UPDATE OCT 6 - Harris inactive again
    • UPDATE OCT 8: "Brandon Bolden may have leap-frogged Damien Harris as the guy behind the other three backs (Michel, White, Rex)." per @Stompin' Tom Connors
    • UPDATE OCT 8: "I would bet that Bolden is only seeing offensive snaps while White and Michel are both healthy because he is a special teams standout. If Michael or White were to go down Harris could leapfrog Bolden, with Bolden staying mostly on ST's. " per @ConnSKINS26
    • UPDATE OCT 20TH: it was Harris, not Bolden who went in after Michel went out with an injury
  • NYG - UPDATE OCT 8: "(Jon) Hilliman looks like the next man up for the Giants (but Elijhaa Penny still there as well)" per @Stompin' Tom Connors
  • CAR - Jordan Scarlett per @Patrick the Pirate
    • CAR - UPDATE OCT 8: "I think Reggie Bonnafon may have leap-frogged Jordan Scarlett as the backup to own in CAR." per @Stompin' Tom Connors
  • SEA - CJ Prosise
  • SEA - Rashaad Penny
  • DET - Ty Johnson - UPDATE OCT 22: Kerryon Johnson went on IR today
    • per @Football Jones "wouldn't be surprising if he passes CJ at some point" <-- UPDATE: apparently so since DET cut CJ Anderson
    • and @Snorkelson "I like ty Johnson if kerryon goes down over cjanderson"
    • per @BobbyLayne "He's a nice satellite back who is quicker then a Tesla, but ain’t no way he’s passing Kerryon - but he has value in his current role even with a healthy KJ"
    • UPDATE NOV 02:  it was Tre Carson, claimed off of the GBP Practice Squad, not Ty who got the start and the lion's share
  • CHI - Mike Davis - UPDATE NOV 12:  Cut by CHI - picked up today by CAR
  • CHI - Ryan Nall per @Iceman03  : "Bit on the deeper end here but a lot of athleticism with running teams"
  • LAC - Troymaine Pope
  • TBB - Dare Ogunbowale
    • quoting @Dr. Dan "Arians' offense involves 80-100+ targets to his RBs"
    • per @SoBeDad "Dare Ogunbowale as a 3rd down back. He looked good against Miami and Ronald Jones still hasn't done anything. Barber is JAG."
  • XXX - CJ Anderson - cut by DET
  • OAK - Damarea Crockett - per @zamboni
    • @EBF states:  "I think there's a chance that Crockett is the best back on the (HOU) roster, but I can imagine it taking half a season for him to plant his flag"
    • @socrates states: "I agree.  It may take an injury or lack of production from Duke to thrust Crockett into a starting role."
    • And HOU has added Carlos Hyde
    • Crockett cut by HOU - signed by OAK to practice squad
  • OAK - DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard - suggested by @Stompin' Tom Connors
  • GB - Dexter Williams per @Dr. Dan stating: "If Aaron Jones gets hurt I think Dexter could shine" and agreed upon by @leftcoastheel
    • UPDATE OCT 8: "Tra Carson brought in to spell Aaron Jones in GB, but that will likely change when Jamaal Williams is healed." per @Stompin' Tom Connors
    • UPDATE NOV 02:  Tra Carson claimed by DET before last Sunday's games and started
  • OAK - Deandre Washington per @Iceman03 : "Bit on the deeper end here but a lot of athleticism with running teams"
  • OAK - Jalen Richard And DeAndre Washington - per @joey
  • MIN - Mike Boone per @Iceman03 : "Bit on the deeper end here but a lot of athleticism with running teams"
  • ATL - Brian Hill
    • overtakes Ito Smith per @leftcoastheel
    • per @leftcoastheel "measurables aren't outstanding, but he is a good player generating some buzz in the preseason.  Also, great offense, and incumbents with big question marks"
    • UPDATE NOV 12:  Ito Smith on IR - D Freeman has an injured foot - out for "probably" 2 weeks
  • ATL - Ito Smith - UPDATE OCT 8 - "Ito Smith, not Brian Hill, seems to be the cuff." per @Stompin' Tom Connors
    • UPDATE NOV 12:  Ito Smith on IR
  • BAL - Kenneth Dixon per @zeeshan2 and @JFS171
  • NYJ - Ty Montgomery suggested by @Tanner9919
  • NO - Dwayne Washington per @Iceman03 stating Bit on the deeper end here but a lot of athleticism with running teams
  • NO - Devine Ozigbo per @Dr. Dan stating:  Latavius Murray has a pretty lengthy injury history. I wouldnt expect him to play a complete season. Ozigbo is similar to Murray in terms of the role they would be expected to play in the NO offense (The "Ingram role").
  • CIN - Samaje Perine  per @IHEARTFF - UPDATE: cut by WAS, signed by CIN
  • BUF - TJ Yeldon per @BobbyLayne
  • SEA - Travis Homer per @strong
  • SF - Raheem Mostert per @Stompin' Tom Connors
  • CIN - Giovani Bernard - per @Patrick the Pirate and @Ilov80s
  • WAS - Adrian Peterson - per @Ilov80s
  • DET - Paul Perkins? per @Stompin' Tom Connors
  • SF - Jeffery Wilson
  • NE - Burkhead
  • RB Jay Ajayi nearing NFL return? (Sep. 25th) per @Faust
  • NYG - Jon Hilliman - per @bluer6  (Hillman) is an American football running back for the New York Giants of the National Football League. He played college football at Rutgers and Boston College and was signed by the New York Giants as an undrafted free agent in 2019.

Former Candidates ("Too Late") List - the "cat is out of the bag" on these and probably no longer qualify as Lotto Tickets (probably no longer on the WW in most leagues), but I'm referencing them instead of outright deleting them for completeness - this is a "cast a wide net" thread and who knows, in some of the millions of leagues he might still be available - stranger things have happened.

  • NYG - Wayne Gallman - UPDATE:  (Sep. 24) Barkley out 4-8 weeks with a High Ankle Sprain - Most FF FA podcasts and sites have him as a Top Priority
  • LAC - Austin Ekeler per @Craig_MiamiFL
  • LAC - Justin Jackson
  • BUF - Singletary - per @BobbyLayne
  • BUF - Frank Gore - with Singletary injured, Gore gets the starts
  • HOU - Duke Johnson - Lamar Miller has a possible torn ACL - UPDATE: HOU signed Carlos Hyde
  • HOU - Carlos Hyde - added Hyde here despite getting zero love on this thread as he is running fairly well and getting touches but is most likely rostered by now (Sep. 20)
  • SF - Matt Breida per @Mongidig with @Tanner9919 agreeing
  • NO - Latavius Murray per @-X- also, @yoman states "I don't think Murray is by any means a great back but he is in an ideal situation with one of the best rushing offense in the NFL and I doubt they want to run Kamara to the ground  I think he will be a solid flex play unless there is an injury to Kamara"
  • LAR - Malcom Brown - Sep. 14:  The cat would seem to be out of the bag on Brown but I'm leaving him here for now in case he's still, inexplicably, available in (shallow) leagues.
  • TBB - Ronald Jones - I'm adding him here as he should already have been rostered but who knows?  Getting descent love on the podcasts.
  • HOU - Carlos Hyde - traded from KC to HOU - UPDATE: (Sep 23/24) moved him to the Former List as he should be rostered by now...
  • MIA - per @4th&inches siting rumors that MIA will trade Drake
    • UPDATE NOV 12:  and they did - to ARZ

Thoughts?  Opinions?

P.S. I want to give a shout out to @SameSongNDance for starting this annual tradition back in 2016!

P.S.S. I want to give a shout out to @Mr. Irrelevant on his excellent thread 2017 Trends that could repeat in 2018.  Could you please write one for 2019?

And I thank the following past contributors (not mentioned earlier):  @Stompin' Tom Connors @Buck Bradcanon @davearm @Football Jones @Long Ball Larry @The Dude @bicycle_seat_sniffer @Ilov80s @Ted Lange as your Bartender @4th and Inches @zamboni @cloppbeast @MindBomb @hardcoredx @IHEARTFF ...if you were a contributor in the past and I left your name out I apologize.

Edited by daylight
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You can probably remove Ekeler from that list.  He won't be on any waiver wires, and it appears to be a near certainly he's going to be starting games at this point.

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Posted (edited)

Took these guys today:

ARI - Chase Edmonds

LAR - Darell Henderson

BUF - Devin Singletary

BAL - Justice Hill

Missed out on Mattison because I drafted a D. Thompson went first (10th), but IMO he has less stand alone value than Edmonds, Henderson, or Hill. Love Singletary but glad I don’t have to ever start him as it may take awhile for him to get touches.

 

BTW take that trash bag Hyde out and replace with Darrell Williams.

Edited by BobbyLayne
typo

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Great thread - thanks for doing it again.

This thread has always been great in identifying and discussing guys well before most of my league mates have discovered them.

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10 minutes ago, billmatic said:

You can probably remove Ekeler from that list.  He won't be on any waiver wires, and it appears to be a near certainly he's going to be starting games at this point.

Moved Ekeler to the "also ran" list.

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7 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

BTW take that trash bag Hyde out and replace with Darrell Williams.

Added Williams - thanks.  Leaving Hyde for now, stranger things have happened.  Hard to completely zero out Hyde in that offense.

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How about Crockett in HOU? 

Right now, Duke is the presumed guy, but who knows if he’s up to the task and for all we know, the Texans may just roll with what they’ve got.

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Posted (edited)

Dare Ogunbowale

If hes a FA get him now

 

Arians' offense involves 80-100+ targets to his RBs

 Jones wont fill this role. Barber is not very talented all around. Dare has seen targets in his college days. Hes the best pass blocker and best pass catcher on that offense. He as working with the 1s earlier this week without Jones. 

IMO Dare has the most fantasy points in that backfield this season

Edited by Dr. Dan
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4 minutes ago, daylight said:

Added Williams - thanks.  Leaving Hyde for now, stranger things have happened.  Hard to completely zero out Hyde in that offense.

He’s been the worst RB on his teams roster three straight stops but OK let’s be inclusive.

:P

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Dare Ogunbowale

If hes a FA get him now

 

Arians' offense involves 80-100+ targets to his RBs

 Jones wont fill this role. Barber is not very talented all around. Dare has seen targets in his college days. Hes the best pass blocker and best pass catcher on that offense. He as working with the 1s earlier this week without Jones. 

IMO Dare has the most fantasy points in that backfield this season

Over Ty Johnson? Yes, I’m sneaking in an AC question 40 minutes after my draft ended lol.

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Dare Ogunbowale

If hes a FA get him now

 

Arians' offense involves 80-100+ targets to his RBs

 Jones wont fill this role. Barber is not very talented all around. Dare has seen targets in his college days. Hes the best pass blocker and best pass catcher on that offense. He as working with the 1s earlier this week without Jones. 

IMO Dare has the most fantasy points in that backfield this season

Nice call - forgot about this guy and as you say, Jones/Barber are uninspiring to say the least.

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Favorite thread of the year is back again!  Thanks to all who have helped with this the last few seasons.

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Dare Ogunbowale as a 3rd down back. He looked good against Miami and Ronald Jones still hasn't done anything. Barber is JAG.

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Posted (edited)

This one is easy for me:

Justin Jackson- legit college pedigree with both rushing and receiving skills. At a minimum is locked into a timeshare with Ekeler who simply will not hold up as a feature back. I see a prolonged Gordon holdout. LAC have a top 12 offense and the skill position players there are strong. While the OL is an area of relative weakness, JJ did perform well last year when asked to be the lead RB.

Surprised he has not been mentioned more often. He checks a lot of boxes.

Edited by Ack88
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2 minutes ago, Ack88 said:

This one is easy for me:

Justin Jackson- legit college pedigree with both rushing and receiving skills. At a minimum is locked into a timeshare with Ekeler who simply will not hold up as a feature back. I see a prolonged Gordon holdout. LAC have a top 12 offense and the skill position players there are strong. While the OL is an area of relative weakness, JJ did perform well last year when asked to be the lead RB.

Surprised he has not been mentioned.

Went 14th round today, right after Hunt and just ahead of Ty Montgomery & Kalen Ballage. I probably like him best of that grouping.

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TJ Johnson:

It wouldn't be surprising if he passes CJ at some point. Johnson has the size, speed, & receiving ability to be productive as a feature back if Kerryon goes down.

And it's not like Kerryon has a proven track record. TJ is one of the better high upside/low cost RBs in FF.

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My ten year old thinks Ty Johnson has the best hair on my team, so can’t cut him now

🙄

Anything to keep her interested 

 

@daylight I suppose we should add Jamal Williams just in case something happens to AJ  

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Deandre Washington - Oakland

Ryan Nall - Chicago

Mike Boone - Minnesota

Dwayne Washington - New Orleans

Bit on the deeper end here but a lot of athleticism with running teams.

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Posted (edited)

Now that the raiders cut Doug Martin, I guess we need to include RB Lotto Ti Cletus Darling, Jalen Richard here. And DeAndre Washington actually has looked pretty good this preseason (which I assume led to Martin's release today)

 

ETA: Martin not cut but placed on IR. Either way...

Edited by joey

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26 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Over Ty Johnson? Yes, I’m sneaking in an AC question 40 minutes after my draft ended lol.

No I like Ty more. Hes a bigger playmaker. More speed. more athleticism

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1 minute ago, SCT said:

Darwin or Justice

Why not both?

Thompson was Waldman and Hollman’s 2nd best RB in the class if you listen to film guys. Great balance.

Hill has looked really good to me TBH.

Both offenses should run a ton of plays so I see both getting touches even if the starters are healthy.

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Ekeler would be my #1 choice. I think he's looking at a Woodhead like season.

Agree on Chase Edmunds. The glaring part of Johnson's game is lack of quickness. Cards offense would benefit a lot with a quicker compliment with him IMO. That Oline isn't going to help matters with Johnson trying to run. Best hope is that Murray's threat of mobility does.

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2 minutes ago, Craig_MiamiFL said:

Ekeler would be my #1 choice. I think he's looking at a Woodhead like season.

Agree on Chase Edmunds. The glaring part of Johnson's game is lack of quickness. Cards offense would benefit a lot with a quicker compliment with him IMO. That Oline isn't going to help matters with Johnson trying to run. Best hope is that Murray's threat of mobility does.

If they run 70-80 plays a week & are often behind, Chase could easily see 150-175 touches even if DJ stays healthy.

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19 minutes ago, leftcoastheel said:

Brian Hill overtakes Ito Smith and then Freeman gets injured.

I like Brian Hill a lot. hes overlooked after he just wasnt ready last year as a rookie

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46 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

I like ty Johnson if kerryon goes down over cjanderson. 

 

41 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

TJ Johnson:

It wouldn't be surprising if he passes CJ at some point. Johnson has the size, speed, & receiving ability to be productive as a feature back if Kerryon goes down.

And it's not like Kerryon has a proven track record. TJ is one of the better high upside/low cost RBs in FF.

First post is wrong, those are not my quotes lol

He’s a nice satellite back who is quicker then a Tesla, but ain’t no way he’s passing Kerryon 

But he has value in his current role even with a healthy KJ

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

I like Brian Hill a lot. hes overlooked after he just wasnt ready last year as a rookie

His athletic measurables aren't outstanding, but he is a good player generating some buzz in the preseason.  Also, great offense, and incumbents with big question marks.  I got him with my last pick in a FFPC draft yesterday.  Happy to roll the dice on him there.

Edited by leftcoastheel
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6 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

First post is wrong, those are not my quotes lol

Corrected - my apologies.

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17 minutes ago, daylight said:

Corrected - my apologies.

Nah worries it was partly in jest

Thanks for starting this thread back up! One of my favorites 

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Darwin Thompson (RB – KC)
There is no doubt about it that Damien Williams will open the season as the starting running back for the Chiefs. He was extraordinary, after all, to close the season for Kansas City, but let’s not forget that before him, Kareem Hunt was a fantasy monster and prior to Hunt, Ware was at one point the top running back in fantasy. Going back further, it was Jamaal Charles, and all of this happened in a five-year period. It is possible, then, that Williams is the newest one-year wonder under Andy Reid then the Chiefs move on, be it an injury or what have you. More than likely, though, the Chiefs quickly realize that while Williams is great under Reid (he wasn’t even close to good with Miami) that Darwin would be even better. Williams is by no means a workhorse or three-down back so you can be sure they will get a good look at Thompson on the field with the starters for 10 touches per game to open the year.

Justin Jackson (RB – LAC)
By the time you are reading this, the Chargers may have ponied up 30 million guaranteed for Melvin Gordon and Jackson would be immediately droppable. Or, perhaps, we could be entering the season with everyone thinking Austin Ekeler was the Chargers’ sure-fire bell-cow back. Let’s rewind to last fall when the Chargers tried that experiment. Ekeler’s hyper-efficiency didn’t translate. Now, he is a quality football player, for sure, but he is best suited as a third-down back. Then there is Jackson has had 30+ touches in SIXTEEN college games. He was excellent in his one start with the Chargers last year and his tape jumps off the page as an agile runner with incredible acceleration. In this offensive, the Chargers might not even realize Gordon was missing if they let Jackson fill his shoes.

Justice Hill (RB – BAL)
So I just mentioned how agile Jackson was. Compared to Hill, Jackson looks like a tortoise. Hill is a bigger, faster, strong version of Phillip Lindsay, who just so happened to run for over 1,000 yards on under 200 carries last season. My podcast co-host said Hill’s tape reminds him of Reggie Bush, minus the all-world hands. While he is stuck behind Mark Ingram right now, Ingram is on the wrong side of 30 years old and you can bet the contrast between the two this year will be stark. If Ingram suffers an injury at any point this year, don’t expect him to get the job back. Hill will take it for himself and never look back. When he does, we might see him end the 2019 season like C.J. Anderson‘s incredible 2014 breakout that led to him being drafted in the first round of 2015 fantasy drafts.

Players who could be first round fantasy picks in 2020

 

 

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32 minutes ago, zeeshan2 said:

Kenneth Dixon?

I think he’s getting overlooked a bit. Three years ago he was all the rage as one of the top rookie RBs in dynasty. He’s been hurt a bunch, but I’m old enough to remember Fragile Fred Taylor who was hurt a ton until he wasn’t. It’s not the craziest thing for injury prone guys to suddenly get healthy. 

Assuming health (which certainly isn’t a given), Dixon has a ton of talent. He can play on all three downs. He has the contact balance that’s getting Thompson all the buzz this preseason for the Chiefs. The question is whether Dixon has a job. I think the Ravens seem Ingram as their between the tackles starter with Edwards as his direct backup. I heard Jeff Ratcliffe on PFF’s podcast say that a source told him Ingram  and Edwards may both be on the field when the Ravens use the pistol formation. But someone seems likely to be used as a complement to Ingram and Edwards between the tackles. Everyone has crowned Justice Hill with that role, but Dixon has consistently run ahead of Hill at camp. While Hill played into the third quarter this week with Trace Mcsorely, Dixon chilled on the sidelines with Ingram and Edwards.

Last year Dixon was set to get his shot before Edwards, but he got hurt. In week two, Dixon spelled Ingram with the first team and was second in the game among RBs, followed by Edwards and then Hill. It’s not the craziest thing to see Dixon as the complement to Ingram right away, and have a shot at a major role should Ingram get dinged. 

If they want to keep Hill too, and don’t keep four RBs, then I imagine Dixon is traded, which also may not be the worst thing. 

Just don’t forget about the guy. In 2016, he was the guy all the film dudes gushed about. He’s just been banged up for three years. 

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Darwin Thompson (RB – KC)...

Justin Jackson (RB – LAC)...

Justice Hill (RB – BAL)...

Players who could be first round fantasy picks in 2020

Great post - thanks for the link to a great article.

Curious, when you quoted the article in this thread, why did you leave out Brian Hill @BobbyLayne ?

Edited by daylight

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My case for Justice Hill

- Great tape, people who watched him in college liked him. Waldman said he has shades of Reggie Bush (who came into the league a decade too early), Brett Kollman had him as RB2 in the class

- He's also a hit with the metrics guys. 4.40 at the combine, playerprofiler has him with 95th percentile burst.

- Had the college production. Above average target share, 632 career carries, 49 catches, was a starter at age 18 getting double the amount of carries as 22 year old senior Chris Carson. 

- Steady buzz all through off-season

- While the preseason stats aren't there, everyone thinks he looks explosive and people have been impressed by his balance and tackle breaking

- Plays on the run heaviest offense in the NFL with a mobile QB who could create wide lanes for him. 

- The guy in front of him is a 30 year old RB who has a lengthy injury history and has  been busted for PED use. 

I think he has massive potential. 

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If he makes the team, Alex Barnes. Although although he has tough competition to make the team

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Gus Johnson put up some nice numbers last season. Should he be somewhere on the list ?

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35 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

Love this thread.

Thanks

Yes, this thread always rocks.

I’m thinking about super cheap options...

Darrel Williams and Gus Edwards are free. Speed dial in shallow redrafts.

Crockett probably worth a look with Miller out and Duke only option. 

Maybe Perine in Was if Guice isn’t 100%. 

Armstead Jax

 

 

 

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Ty Montgomery.  Even if Bell is healthy he holds value in PPR leagues and if Bell gets hurt Montgomery becomes a waiver wire bomb.  We have no idea how Gase is going to use these guys once the season starts, either, so the normal workload might be in the double-digit touches per game.  He's certainly a versatile enough guy to justify it.

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Posted (edited)

I think Kareem Hunt has to be on here.  He is going in the later-ish rounds.

Dude would win you your 'ship if something happened to Chubb.  Probably has stand alone value later in the season and in the playoffs too.  Same with CJ Anderson.

I know we all want to be the genius who calls out the shiny rookie, but these are proven chiseled vets sitting 2 on their respective depth charts that stand to be RB1s (again) if something happens to the incumbent.

EDIT: (maybe CJ isn't "chiseled," but the point remains 🤣) and I'd consider removing Hyde at this point...

Edited by leftcoastheel
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Rodney Anderson.  He was a guy that was a 1.01 candidate for 2019 draft in early 2018 conversations - Kiper's mocks, 2019 lookahead thread, etc.  Huge physical talent, and another guy that could carve out standalone value just by being productive but if Mixon goes down, this guy is a league-winner.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, daylight said:

Great post - thanks for the link to a great article.

Curious, when you quoted the article in this thread, why did you leave out Brian Hill @BobbyLayne ?

Because I didn’t draft him

:lmao:

Actually that was inadvertent - I cut off Henry (TE) & thought there were only 3 RBs listed.

Edited by BobbyLayne

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Dexter Williams. 

Aaron Jones has yet to finish a complete season. Jamaal Williams is just a guy. Dexter Williams fits the scheme way better than Jamaal. 

If Aaron Jones gets hurt I think Dexter could shine

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3 hours ago, daylight said:

Great post - thanks for the link to a great article.

Curious, when you quoted the article in this thread, why did you leave out Brian Hill @BobbyLayne ?

Good catch, thanks.

Brian Hill (RB – ATL)
We are going super deep for the last one. I mean Arian Foster deep or Peyton Hillis deep. Someone who is on no one’s radar, but could legitimately be a top-five fantasy pick if everything falls into place. Look, we don’t like to talk about it, but injuries do happen, and to running backs, they happen quite often. I can guarantee you at least 4 of the 32 starting running backs will suffer season-ending injuries this season, and frankly, the number will likely be closer to 8. Look back at the breakout running backs over the past 20 years and you’ll find one thing in common: they weren’t middling running backs who suddenly became good, they were unheard of backups in great offenses. Atlanta is a great offense. Heck, they produced the #1 fantasy back just a few seasons ago! Hill, meanwhile, seems to have passed Ito Smith on their depth chart and just so happens to be one of the most athletic backs in football.

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Darrel Williams saw the field with the 1’s in the 1st quarter of Chief’s Week 3 preseason game, and before Darwin Thompson 

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6 hours ago, daylight said:
  • PIT - Jaylen Samuels

Its no secret, but Jaylen is an obvious kingmaker if he plays full time. And he has value as the team is going to use him quite a bit anyway, especially as a reciever. Has been smashing-it again this preseason.

When Conner missed week 15 last year vs the Patriots: 19-142 + 2-30.

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How do people feel about Alfred Morris’ chances of playing fantasy-worthy snaps?

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