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2019 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings

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42 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Dexter Williams. 

Aaron Jones has yet to finish a complete season. Jamaal Williams is just a guy. Dexter Williams fits the scheme way better than Jamaal. 

If Aaron Jones gets hurt I think Dexter could shine

Agree on this one.

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9 minutes ago, dahabi said:

How do people feel about Alfred Morris’ chances of playing fantasy-worthy snaps?

slim to none IMO.  I took him at the end of one draft and immediately regretted it.  likely dropping him at the first waiver this Friday.

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5 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

 

First post is wrong, those are not my quotes lol

He’s a nice satellite back who is quicker then a Tesla, but ain’t no way he’s passing Kerryon 

But he has value in his current role even with a healthy KJ

No he’s not passing KJ, but if KJ goes down he at least splits work and had some big play ability. Curious to see how many touches he earns.

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i have 2 options keep

zeke and hopkins and dont pick again till about 14 picks but alot of big names off board OR

KEEP connors, chubbs, and also get julio jones and either fournett, damien williams or freeman, carson, kerryon

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12 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

No he’s not passing KJ, but if KJ goes down he at least splits work and had some big play ability. Curious to see how many touches he earns.

I wasn’t that impressed with him in college. They subbed him out on passing downs because his pass pro blows and he was an underutilized receiver (29 catches in four years, high was 16 as a sophomore.) As a runner he’s a burner who mostly wants to take it outside; doesn’t really have great agility or sick moves. He just continually beats everybody to the edge because he can really fly.

If there’s an opportunity he’ll def be in a split IMO. Zenner did well last year & added 14 pounds of muscle in the off-season. CJA is fatter than most dads but he can still play. Both offer an inside game that Ty never developed. And it’s not just a size thing, lots of small backs become adept at running interior lanes.

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Ryquell Armstead - JAX

5’11 220lbs. Was top ten in the nation in yards and touchdowns. He’s a bruiser and even says himself that he loves to run angry. We all know Fournette’s not the epitome of health, so his backup has to be one of the first people you think of. Being a power back, he’s a great standalone if he’s asked to man up. 

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I took more lotto tickets today than I’ve ever had in a draft. 

Singletary, Thompson, Latavius Murray, Dion Lewis, & Ronald Jones

one of those guys has to hit, right? :shrug:

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I took more lotto tickets today than I’ve ever had in a draft. 

Singletary, Thompson, Latavius Murray, Dion Lewis, & Ronald Jones

one of those guys has to hit, right? :shrug:

I've realized I like getting four starting, producing backs then just go high upside. Some leagues let you only grab a certain number of a position. I'll take four starters, and four lotto tickets.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

I've realized I like getting four starting, producing backs then just go high upside. Some leagues let you only grab a certain number of a position. I'll take four starters, and four lotto tickets.

Since I went WR/WR/WR from 8 my starters are lottery-Ish too in Carson / Montgomery.

i like their upside but they’re hardly blue-chippers.

until one of my lottery tickets hits I’ll probably be running out Lockett at flex. :shrug:

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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2 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Since I went WR/WR/WR from 8 my starters are lottery-Ish too in Carson / Montgomery.

i like their upside but they’re hardly blue-chippers.

until one of my lottery tickets hits I’ll probably be running out Lockett at flex. :shrug:

Guice or Coutee for me

:lol:

at least until we get some visibility on the 4 rookie RBs I drafted. Full disclosure, we start 8 offensive players (QWWWRRTF) so the last starter is weak on most teams.

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Posted (edited)

I’m out on Ty Johnson, need a better option for WK 1 DST (Eagles v WAS.) As a Lions fan obviously I’ll be watching closely. 0% owned and off most managers radars so it should be easy to get him back if he shows a PPR floor.

Edited by BobbyLayne

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I just picked up Damarea Crockett (Sp?) from Houston. It should be somewhat easy between now and Week 1 to find out if he's got a shot at the starting role or if they're going to pick some vet up to start. If they roll with Crockett I'll keep him, and if not he's an easy cut.

 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

I just picked up Damarea Crockett (Sp?) from Houston. It should be somewhat easy between now and Week 1 to find out if he's got a shot at the starting role or if they're going to pick some vet up to start. If they roll with Crockett I'll keep him, and if not he's an easy cut.

 

How are these the options, and duke is nothing but a 3rd down back? Duke is the man, Crockett will get some work and culture some tds. 

If they drafted someone in the 3rd rd they’d be a highly regarded back worth considering, but since they shipped a 3rd for Duke they going to sign some cast off to carry the load. 

Edited by Snorkelson
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1 hour ago, steelers1080 said:

I just picked up Damarea Crockett (Sp?) from Houston. It should be somewhat easy between now and Week 1 to find out if he's got a shot at the starting role or if they're going to pick some vet up to start. If they roll with Crockett I'll keep him, and if not he's an easy cut.

 

I went with Karan Higdon over Crockett.... see how it pans out until Week 1.

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Gus Johnson put up some nice numbers last season. Should he be somewhere on the list ?

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2 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

How are these the options, and duke is nothing but a 3rd down back? Duke is the man, Crockett will get some work and culture some tds. 

If they drafted someone in the 3rd rd they’d be a highly regarded back worth considering, but since they shipped a 3rd for Duke they going to sign some cast off to carry the load. 

They could give Duke more work, but he's not on my Waiver Wire. Also, he can't stay healthy. He's had a hamstring issue so far this offseason and usually those linger. He might be great, but not if he can't get on the field. 

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5 hours ago, steelers1080 said:

I just picked up Damarea Crockett (Sp?) from Houston. It should be somewhat easy between now and Week 1 to find out if he's got a shot at the starting role...

 

I have to disagree. I think there's a chance that Crockett is the best back on the roster, but I can imagine it taking half a season for him to plant his flag and take over the starting position. I've been following the situation because I have him in a couple dynasty leagues and he's been running behind some of the other options. The vibe I get is that he's a talented guy that they don't completely trust yet. They may play it safe out of the gate and lean on Duke since he's the veteran.

Come week 7 or 8, if Duke isn't working then the picture could be very different, but I think Crockett may require some patience. Unless he gets cut, I don't think his role is going to be clearly and permanently defined after one week.

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Where do you fit Crockett in a dynasty rookie draft? On my list he's right after the thompson/pollard/mattison tier and before the armstead/snell/anderson/tyjohnson. That too early? I'm grading him as a back that might get a chance to start as opposed to a definite backup.

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47 minutes ago, EBF said:

I have to disagree. I think there's a chance that Crockett is the best back on the roster, but I can imagine it taking half a season for him to plant his flag and take over the starting position. I've been following the situation because I have him in a couple dynasty leagues and he's been running behind some of the other options. The vibe I get is that he's a talented guy that they don't completely trust yet. They may play it safe out of the gate and lean on Duke since he's the veteran.

Come week 7 or 8, if Duke isn't working then the picture could be very different, but I think Crockett may require some patience. Unless he gets cut, I don't think his role is going to be clearly and permanently defined after one week.

I agree.  It may take an injury or lack of production from Duke to thrust Crockett into a starting role.  Perhaps we will see a gradual transition.  Perhaps it never happens.  We could gain some clarity on this early if (1) Crockett does not make the team; (2) Houston trades for/signs a RB of some significance; or (3) Duke comes out of the gate and looks great.  Otherwise, this is a situation that may require some patience for dynasty owners. 

This is not a good o-line, so you have to factor that in to Crockett's potential value, but aside from the o-line, this is as good a situation as Crockett could expect to be in.  If he makes the roster, I would hang onto him and allow this play out.

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2 minutes ago, PNRZ said:

Where do you fit Crockett in a dynasty rookie draft? On my list he's right after the thompson/pollard/mattison tier and before the armstead/snell/anderson/tyjohnson. That too early? I'm grading him as a back that might get a chance to start as opposed to a definite backup.

I rate Anderson higher (he is up a tier for me, as is Thompson up a tier from where you list him, imo), but I think Crockett would reasonably fit in the tier of Armstead/Snell/Ty Johnson

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Most rookie drafts are over but some dynasty leagues will have blind bid FAAB free agent bidding this week before the season starts. Anyone want to take a stab at blind bid FAAB % some of these RB's will command. For reference, these are the ones available in our league:

Crokett

Hilliard

Ty Johnson

Brian Hill

Ogunbowale

Higdon

Ollison

Ozigbo

Boone

Alf Morris

 

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Posted (edited)

 

 Glad to see this thread fired up again....and also still glad I'm still quoted from back in the '16 thread.  :football:

Which I still stand behind how I tried to look at it. (If you are going to take a fantasy lottery ticket, try and get one that may pay off like gangbusters)

 

 To chuck in a bit of an opinion, as of the evening of 8-26 (with multiple drafts coming in the next 7-8 days) here are some of the ones I am highest on,  AT THIS POINT.

 

JUSTIN JACKSON -   While not exactly flying under everyone's radar because of MELVIN GORDON , it seems as though he may well turn out to the the steal of the drafts.  ECKELER , looks to be the slightly upper piece of what looks like it may be a full blown RBBC, but Jackson is far cheaper.  I also have my injury concerns about Eckeler, as he isn't the biggest back, and he has been "nicked up" at times. (Didn't he have a neck issue at one time that was originally viewed as relatively serious??? Can't really remember)

The Chargers should have a solid offense, even without Gordon, but I'll take the cheaper/bigger piece here in Jackson.

 

JUSTICE HILL -  This guy has been my one go-to lottery ticket all off season. He is about as electric as they come at times, and speed is only part of his game.  The main knock here is MARK INGRAM sits squarely atop the depth chart in front of him.  He is going at roughly  12.02 on FFC.  The crazy thing about this is, I can't be the only one that sees this clear path to a possible big production scenario. I know Kenneth Dixon is lurking, but how many seasons have we been talking about him, and his eventual injuries...?

In what should be one of the heaviest run heavy offenses in the league, sign me up as looking to invest in what might be the best lottery ticket scenario you could ask for.

 

 JAYLEN SAMUELS -   You should notice a pattern after these guys I list, they are mostly on what should be strong offenses.  Samuels is no different.  This guy can do it all, and he looked great in spots last season. Hell, they can even put him out wide.  Most JAMES CONNER fans who have watched him a lot, notice he doesn't seem to be a great runner. The workload and pass work is bread and butter in Pittsburgh, and whomever they slot in at RB seems to get a fair chunk of it. Samuels can do that too.

One more scenario where if the main guys goes down, people will rush to the wire to acquire this guy. I'd prefer to "beat them to the punch", then they can tell me later in the season how "lucky I am" because I had this guy rostered.  Just because your neighbor is asleep, doesn't mean YOU have to be. 

 

 JAMAAL WILLIAMS - Another apparently strong offense, Green Bay RBs should always have value. True, in the past you had guys like big EDDIE LACY who eventually turned out to be a bust. But any back on an Aaron Rodgers led team shouldn't be ignored.  I think we all know that AARON JONES is the more talented back here but last I checked, Williams was going largely undrafted, or late round 14 and beyond.  So he is essentially free.  Not really in love with the talent here, but on situation alone (and possible opportunity)  he is on my radar.

 

 ALEXANDER MATTISON -  Admittedly I know less about this guy, than the others on my list. But there is one glaring thing that should be staring everyone in the face, thats DALVIN COOK and his "injury concerns". That coupled with the possibility of a sizeable workload in what should be a good offense, makes me think him going at roughly  11.06 per FFC, is a tad criminal.  No matter how much you do, or do NOT like the player, this situation seems to be one we all would want shares of if Cook goes down.

The big Dalvin Cook preseason run, has hopefully took all the attention off Mattison.

 

BONUS PICK - DAMAREA CROCKETT - I fully expect The Texans to add someone here soon, but I am watching this one for the next week or so.

Never like forecasting injury, but its part of our game, we have to keep these things in the back of our minds.

 

 TZM

 

 

Edited by TZMarkie
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11 hours ago, TZMarkie said:

JUSTICE HILL -  This guy has been my one go-to lottery ticket all off season. He is about as electric as they come at times, and speed is only part of his game.  The main knock here is MARK INGRAM sits squarely atop the depth chart in front of him.  He is going at roughly  12.02 on FFC.  The crazy thing about this is, I can't be the only one that sees this clear path to a possible big production scenario. I know Kenneth Dixon is lurking, but how many seasons have we been talking about him, and his eventual injuries...?

In what should be one of the heaviest run heavy offenses in the league, sign me up as looking to invest in what might be the best lottery ticket scenario you could ask for.

 

 TZM

 

 

I've been picking up shares of Justice Hill in every single league I'm in; dynasty and redraft.

I know it's been said before but there is a very real possibility that Hill plays the Kamara roll in Baltimore this year.

No other RB on the Ravens has Justice's skill set or explosiveness and he's going to force the Ravens to give him touches and design plays with him in mind.

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Posted (edited)

While he’s a known quantity, Latavius Murray (filling Ingram’s former role) in NO should be considered a candidate for this list.

Edited by -X-
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good thread

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22 minutes ago, -X- said:

While he’s a known quantity, Latavius Murray (filling Ingram’s former role) in NO should be considered a candidate for this list.

He has been briefly discussed in this thread already. I don't think Murray is by any means a great back but he is in an ideal situation with one of the best rushing offense in the NFL and I doubt they want to run Kamara to the ground  I think he will be a solid flex play unless there is an injury to Kamara. Brees is also older and doesn't throw as much.

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On 8/25/2019 at 10:03 AM, Dr. Dan said:

Dare Ogunbowale

If hes a FA get him now

 

Arians' offense involves 80-100+ targets to his RBs

 Jones wont fill this role. Barber is not very talented all around. Dare has seen targets in his college days. Hes the best pass blocker and best pass catcher on that offense. He as working with the 1s earlier this week without Jones. 

IMO Dare has the most fantasy points in that backfield this season

Nor gonna argue with that at all. However, he has developed some degree of chemistry with Winston as a check-down back, his usage in the receiving game increasing every year, and was 60th percentile (i.e. above average) in reception points among RBs with more than 50 fantasy points (kudos FBG for this stat!).

Door is definitely open to Ogunbowale stepping in to take those receptions away, as at this point I doubt RoJo is a guy that threatens Barber for either carries or catches. As a lottery ticket, Ogunbowale makes sense, but I am not sure I am seeing his utility for a fantasy team unless Barber/Jones goes down.

On 8/25/2019 at 4:30 PM, dahabi said:

Darrel Williams saw the field with the 1’s in the 1st quarter of Chief’s Week 3 preseason game, and before Darwin Thompson 

I am not sure we can take things like this as a pure sign of pecking order. It's a great directional signal, but Williams may have just gotten those carries as the staff wanted to see how he fared in that down/distance situation, as opposed to being above Thompson in pecking order. 

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9 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Nor gonna argue with that at all. However, he has developed some degree of chemistry with Winston as a check-down back, his usage in the receiving game increasing every year, and was 60th percentile (i.e. above average) in reception points among RBs with more than 50 fantasy points (kudos FBG for this stat!).

Door is definitely open to Ogunbowale stepping in to take those receptions away, as at this point I doubt RoJo is a guy that threatens Barber for either carries or catches. As a lottery ticket, Ogunbowale makes sense, but I am not sure I am seeing his utility for a fantasy team unless Barber/Jones goes down.

 

I would agree. I guess lotto ticket isnt a great term for him. If he can grab the pass catching role he can have Nyheim Hines value IMO. I did read somewhere that if Barber was ineffective they could cut him midseason, which sounds ridiculous to me mid season

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9 hours ago, ty247 said:

 

I've been picking up shares of Justice Hill in every single league I'm in; dynasty and redraft.

I know it's been said before but there is a very real possibility that Hill plays the Kamara roll in Baltimore this year.

No other RB on the Ravens has Justice's skill set or explosiveness and he's going to force the Ravens to give him touches and design plays with him in mind.

I drafted Hill late but the only cautionary thing I would add is that the Ravens backfield has been frustrating and murky since Ray Rice roamed the earth.

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Surprised this guy isnt mentioned yet, especially since everyone else has on this team. 

 

Assuming he makes the roster, Devine Ozigbo could have lotto ticket status. 

 

Latavius Murray has a pretty lengthy injury history. I wouldnt expect him to play a complete season. Ozigbo is similar to Murray in terms of the role they would be expected to play in the NO offense (The "Ingram role"). 

Assuming Ozigbo makes the team, which seems like he may, he has lotto ticket status IMO

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this may not count but watch the Clowney trade carefully; Houston might get back Drake or Ballage in that trade

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, zeeshan2 said:

this may not count but watch the Clowney trade carefully; Houston might get back Drake or Ballage in that trade

 I think Miami saw enough out of ballage to know they need Drake. 

 And with Drake being hurt I think they  no they need to keep Ballage.

if they send either to HOU, I can’t imagine either of them being a better option than Duke Johnson.  

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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1 hour ago, zeeshan2 said:

this may not count but watch the Clowney trade carefully; Houston might get back Drake or Ballage in that trade

IMO more likely to be a draft pick and a lower rb like Gaskin

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On 8/25/2019 at 1:51 PM, Ilov80s said:

My case for Justice Hill

- Great tape, people who watched him in college liked him. Waldman said he has shades of Reggie Bush (who came into the league a decade too early), Brett Kollman had him as RB2 in the class

- He's also a hit with the metrics guys. 4.40 at the combine, playerprofiler has him with 95th percentile burst.

- Had the college production. Above average target share, 632 career carries, 49 catches, was a starter at age 18 getting double the amount of carries as 22 year old senior Chris Carson. 

- Steady buzz all through off-season

- While the preseason stats aren't there, everyone thinks he looks explosive and people have been impressed by his balance and tackle breaking

- Plays on the run heaviest offense in the NFL with a mobile QB who could create wide lanes for him. 

- The guy in front of him is a 30 year old RB who has a lengthy injury history and has  been busted for PED use. 

I think he has massive potential. 

That made me feel warm and fuzzy because I grabbed him tonight plus my boy Breida who I think is gonna have a huge breakout this year. 

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Posted (edited)

 

 First draft of the year, and was lucky enough to get several lottery ticket RBs I had been watching.

 

 Justin Jackson, Justice Hill, and Ryquell Armstead welcome aboard.   (I have Ingram and Fournette, so it fit perfectly)

 

Didn't quite fall how I would have liked, but having 2-3 "LOTTO BACKS" I had been watching, not bad.

A couple more drafts later this week, and hopefully I will be able to snag a couple of the other guys I'm targeting.

 QUICK EDIT -  Just for information purposes, it should be known Alexander Mattison went in the mid-15th in our 12 teamer.  He seems to be flying under the radar a bit.

TZM

Edited by TZMarkie

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if Breida is a lotto ticket, he's going to deliver in spades.Looks like McKinnon is headed for IR - complications from the knee.

T. Coleman will play his own role, while Breida plays the D. Freeman role in shannys offense. he led the league in rushing for the first 8 games or so , last season. he could easily do that again.

I like the calls on Hill have to look at him more closely

this thread has been great keep it up!

 

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If Texans don't sign anyone does Crockett have a chance to get carries out the gate or is he a long term project?

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1 hour ago, Tanner9919 said:

if Breida is a lotto ticket, he's going to deliver in spades.Looks like McKinnon is headed for IR - complications from the knee.

T. Coleman will play his own role, while Breida plays the D. Freeman role in shannys offense. he led the league in rushing for the first 8 games or so , last season. he could easily do that again.

I like the calls on Hill have to look at him more closely

this thread has been great keep it up!

 

James Conner says hello

:coffee:

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On 8/25/2019 at 1:18 PM, SoBeDad said:

Dare Ogunbowale as a 3rd down back. He looked good against Miami and Ronald Jones still hasn't done anything. Barber is JAG.

 

On 8/27/2019 at 6:23 PM, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Nor gonna argue with that at all. However, he has developed some degree of chemistry with Winston as a check-down back, his usage in the receiving game increasing every year, and was 60th percentile (i.e. above average) in reception points among RBs with more than 50 fantasy points (kudos FBG for this stat!).

Door is definitely open to Ogunbowale stepping in to take those receptions away, as at this point I doubt RoJo is a guy that threatens Barber for either carries or catches. As a lottery ticket, Ogunbowale makes sense, but I am not sure I am seeing his utility for a fantasy team unless Barber/Jones goes down.

I am not sure we can take things like this as a pure sign of pecking order. It's a great directional signal, but Williams may have just gotten those carries as the staff wanted to see how he fared in that down/distance situation, as opposed to being above Thompson in pecking order. 

Would you drop damien harris or justice hill  to keep peyton barber in dynasty? I am faced with this decision, or is it very obvious.

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8 minutes ago, irish eyes said:

 

Would you drop damien harris or justice hill  to keep peyton barber in dynasty? I am faced with this decision, or is it very obvious.

 

I would prefer both of those guys easily to Barber, but would hate to cut him. Try to trade Barber. None of them should be on the wire

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Debating between Preston Williams and Boykin in my redraft league. 

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34 minutes ago, 3nOut said:

Debating between Preston Williams and Boykin in my redraft league. 

good luck with that decision.

not sure it belongs in the lotto ticket rb thread

I would try the forum where these questions belong 

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Just now, Dr. Dan said:

good luck with that decision.

not sure it belongs in the lotto ticket rb thread

I would try the forum where these questions belong 

Ehhh, he wasn't even implicitly asking for help. Sometimes specifics help -- it gives people a gauge about what other people think of the player relatively.

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

good luck with that decision.

not sure it belongs in the lotto ticket rb thread

I would try the forum where these questions belong 

Why are you stalking me? This is the third time this week you commented on one of my posts in a snarky manner. Ether grow up, be nice, or go away please.

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Just now, 3nOut said:

Why are you stalking me? This is the third time this week you commented on one of my posts in a snarky manner. Ether grow up, be nice, or go away please.

How is it snarky? I wished you luck and directed you to the correct place to go

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18 minutes ago, 3nOut said:

Why are you stalking me? This is the third time this week you commented on one of my posts in a snarky manner. Ether grow up, be nice, or go away please.

To be fair, you posted a receiver question in a running back thread.

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57 minutes ago, jm192 said:

To be fair, you posted a receiver question in a running back thread.

I'll give you that one. Got ahead of myself, thinking this was just a generic lottery ticket thread.

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