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2019 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings

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The case for Gio and Peterson:

Gio was effective when Mixon was out last year. He had 182 yards and 3 TDs in 2 games as the starter. In addition, this offense is playing faster and throwing more which plays right into Gio's strengths. 

Peterson was far from a league winner last year but he was RB16 in standard, averaged over 4 ypc, was the 8th leading rushiner in the NFL on a yeam that was 29th in points scored, 27th in offensive snaps and 27th in yards per drive. Washington showed some signs of life on offense in week 1 and their QB situation seems improved. If they become an average NFL offense this year, Peterson could go from 1200/7 to 1400/10 which would make him a fringe RB in standard. 

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With the news that MIA is looking to trade Drake, Kalen Ballage looks to be at least a decent add (if not already rostered). 

 

Yes, I know it's MIA...but a starting RB on any NFL(ish) team is still worth rostering. 

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22 minutes ago, 4th&inches said:

With the news that MIA is looking to trade Drake, Kalen Ballage looks to be at least a decent add (if not already rostered). 

 

Yes, I know it's MIA...but a starting RB on any NFL(ish) team is still worth rostering. 

The thing to remember is that later in the season defenses are not as stout

 

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6 hours ago, 4th&inches said:

With the news that MIA is looking to trade Drake, Kalen Ballage looks to be at least a decent add (if not already rostered).

Yes, I know it's MIA...but a starting RB on any NFL(ish) team is still worth rostering. 

Added Kalen Ballage

Edited by daylight

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While I’m sure most are aware already, Detroit released CJ Anderson, so it appears Ty Johnson is the clear handcuff to Kerryon

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just to help organize the gigantic honorable mention list, I think that the top 4 out of the group are:

Rashaad Penny

Darwin Thompson

Ty Johnson

Ryquell Armstead

based on a combination of ability, team's ability or commitment to run, and proximity to the starting job.

wanted to make it top 5, but really couldn't parse the rest of the guys.

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I think that Jordan Wilkins should probably be back on the radar.  He is back from injury in a big way and seems pretty clearly the number 2 on a team with a good line.

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Lions added Paul Perkins. Not sure I'd call him a league winner as he never seemed to run well enough to keep the job when he was with the Giants, but maybe should be added as a very long shot ticket?

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No one has mentioned Jeffery Wilson yet... 

I guess the question is if he continues to get GL carries when Coleman returns, but Shanahan basically said without saying that Wilson is their GL back. That could be RB2 upside

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On 9/17/2019 at 10:45 PM, Long Ball Larry said:

I think that Jordan Wilkins should probably be back on the radar.  He is back from injury in a big way and seems pretty clearly the number 2 on a team with a good line.

Marlon Mack missed practice 2 days in a row with a calf strain.

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On 9/17/2019 at 10:45 PM, Long Ball Larry said:

I think that Jordan Wilkins should probably be back on the radar.  He is back from injury in a big way and seems pretty clearly the number 2 on a team with a good line.

Added Wilkins

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On 9/17/2019 at 11:02 PM, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Lions added Paul Perkins. Not sure I'd call him a league winner as he never seemed to run well enough to keep the job when he was with the Giants, but maybe should be added as a very long shot ticket?

Added Perkins

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On 9/18/2019 at 7:47 PM, Dr. Dan said:

No one has mentioned Jeffery Wilson yet... 

I guess the question is if he continues to get GL carries when Coleman returns, but Shanahan basically said without saying that Wilson is their GL back. That could be RB2 upside

Added Wilson

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11 minutes ago, daylight said:

Added Wilkins

 

11 minutes ago, daylight said:

Added Perkins

 

10 minutes ago, daylight said:

Added Wilson

I pity the fantasy team that needs to add these 3 running backs.

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On 9/17/2019 at 10:15 PM, Long Ball Larry said:

just to help organize the gigantic honorable mention list, I think that the top 4 out of the group are:

Rashaad Penny

Darwin Thompson

Ty Johnson

Ryquell Armstead

based on a combination of ability, team's ability or commitment to run, and proximity to the starting job.

wanted to make it top 5, but really couldn't parse the rest of the guys.

to follow up on this, here's how I would rank the rest of the guys that I am interested in.

Injury away from being the lead guy and still can possibly provide value in the meantime

Jordan Wilkins

Justin Jackson

Really good offenses and all have flashed a fair amount of talent and increasing probability of more snaps

Darrel Williams  

Raheem Mostert 

Jeffery Wilson

We know who you are and you have value now but low ceiling

Adrian Peterson

Giovanni Bernard (maybe a case could be made that he can be moved up, but while he has a monster game every now and then, never really seems to be a consistent starter)

We know who you are and you don't have all that much value now, but could gain traction in the wake of injuries and shifting sands, especially in PPR

TJ Yeldon

Ty Montgomery

CJ Prosise

Interesting longshots that need a number of things to change, but in very good offenses and seem to have talent

Dexter Williams

Mike Boone

Darrell Henderson

 

Nobody else is that interesting to me, at least for the depth of leagues that I play in.

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4 hours ago, Don Hutson said:

 

 

I pity the fantasy team that needs to add these 3 running backs.

in case there is any confusion, he meant that he added them to the list in the first post.

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2 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

in case there is any confusion, he meant that he added them to the list in the first post.

Ah, that makes way more sense.  And none of them are horrible adds in running back heavy leagues.  But I felt so bad for him thinking that he had added all 3 to a fantasy team.

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10 hours ago, Don Hutson said:

Ah, that makes way more sense.  And none of them are horrible adds in running back heavy leagues.  But I felt so bad for him thinking that he had added all 3 to a fantasy team.

I’ve added a handful of these guys to my roster. Unfortunately I don’t have the luxury of rolling out all bona fide 3-down backs in my deep league, so have to roll the dice and hopefully get lucky. And I know I’m not alone in this regard.

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Penny looks very interesting right now. Is he going to be healthy next week? How does the staff handle Carson after all the fumbles?

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20 minutes ago, daylight said:

Wayne Gallman NYG ?

Flex at best and I'm not so sure about that either.

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On 9/21/2019 at 8:53 PM, Long Ball Larry said:

We know who you are and you don't have all that much value now, but could gain traction in the wake of injuries and shifting sands, especially in PPR

TJ Johnson

 

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The bottom of my roster with YTD FF points:

Justice Hill 9.28

Chase Edmonds 7.70

Ty Johnson* 7.70

Darrell Henderson 0.00

*cut once, but got him back after Guice went on IR

Also have Singletary but he’s already flashed enough I think he’ll have a role when healthy.

Hill has the most upside atm.

As a DJ owner I guess I should keep Chase.

Ty is fighting J.D. McKissic for scraps & not showing much so far, probably cut him again at some point.

Still can’t believe I wasted a 9th rounder on the Rams 3rd stringer.

WW: Pollard, Sproles, Gallman, Gus, CJP

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Darrel Williams (RB-KC)

With Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy already banged up, Darrel Williams is interesting.  He looked a lot better than I expected,  especially in the passing game.  Reid has mentioned in the past that he trusts him.   Darwin Thompson is interesting, but his size limits him to a specialized role,  not below.  Damien has a history of injury issues.  McCoy looks great, but how long can he stay on the field?

If McCoy and Damien can't sustain,  I think it's Darrel Williams' backfield.  

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1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

We know who you are and you don't have all that much value now, but could gain traction in the wake of injuries and shifting sands, especially in PPR

TJ Johnson

not totally sure what you are saying.

Are you referring to Ty Johnson, or is there some other reference that I am missing?

Edited by Long Ball Larry

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On 9/18/2019 at 4:47 PM, Dr. Dan said:

No one has mentioned Jeffery Wilson yet... 

I guess the question is if he continues to get GL carries when Coleman returns, but Shanahan basically said without saying that Wilson is their GL back. That could be RB2 upside

On pace for 21 TDs.  :towelwave:

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44 minutes ago, Teef said:

Darrel Williams (RB-KC)

With Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy already banged up, Darrel Williams is interesting.  He looked a lot better than I expected,  especially in the passing game.  Reid has mentioned in the past that he trusts him.   Darwin Thompson is interesting, but his size limits him to a specialized role,  not below.  Damien has a history of injury issues.  McCoy looks great, but how long can he stay on the field?

If McCoy and Damien can't sustain,  I think it's Darrel Williams' backfield.  

Worth an add for sure but could be a clusterf with McCoy, Williams, Williams and Darwin all having big weeks and weeks where they disappear. It might be really tough to predict week to week.

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1 minute ago, Chaka said:

On pace for 21 TDs.  :towelwave:

He potentially will be released in 2 weeks when Tevin Coleman is healthy.

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It's still very early and previous suckitude cannot be ignored BUT Ronald Jones looks like he should move up the lotto rankings.

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

He potentially will be released in 2 weeks when Tevin Coleman is healthy.

Yeah he will...released into the END ZONE!!!

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6 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

He potentially will be released in 2 weeks when Tevin Coleman is healthy.

I am not so sure. He looks productive there on the stripe.

My question is, how often do the 9ers find themselves inside the 5 in their redzone trips and overall, what is their pass/run mix in the red zone, etc.

May help understand if Wilson has any long term value. Haven't seen 9ers games, but he seems slight at 6 foot 194 compared to traditionally successful stripe backs (240+ backs like Bettis, Crockett, Tolbert, Alstott, etc.).

That said, Lynch was 215, so it can come down to nose for end zone.

My feeling is that he's more of a dump to the waiver when Coleman is back (when is that again?) but happy to hear more if people think he might be an interesting buy/hold.

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Chase Edmonds and Dare Ogunbowale are at the end of my bench in a 16-team league. I need to drop one, I'm gonna keep Chase since he's only one injury away. Would he be the one if DJ were out?

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Stock Up/Stock Down among RBs the main post Tier 1, my next tier, and my tier below that (and Gallman!).


Stock Up

Wayne Gallman - clearly up a lot.

Gus Edwards - slightly up. pretty involved, despite Ingram.

Tony Pollard - slightly up.  obviously needs zeke injury to be relevant, but running well with his opportunities.

Jamal Williams - up, outsnapped Jones.

Jaylen Samuels - stock up.  Conner seems a bit vulnerable

Darrel Williams - up.  If McCoy and Damien stay injured, could be a big deal.

Raheem Mostert - slightly up. clearly in the mix, running well.  obviously depends on coleman coming back.

Jeffery Wilson - up. getting that goal line work.

TJ Yeldon - up.  Singletary hampered.

CJ Prosise - up.  Snap count up, Penny hampered, outsnapped Carson (though they were playing from behind of course)

 

Stock Neutral

Alexander Mattison - probably about the same.  on the plus side, snaps up a bit this week and looks pretty good.  on the minus, cook is destroying.

Justin Jackson - probably about the same.  on the plus side, snaps up a bit this week and looks pretty good.  on the minus, ekeler is doing great and gordon still looms.

Kareem Hunt - probably the same.  will only be that relevant if Chubb gets hurt.

Ty Montgomery - same.  meh.

Ryquell Armstead - same.  always dependent on a Fournette injury.

Adrian Peterson - same.  (and maybe should be moved out of the whole lotto ticket group)

 

Stock Down

Darwin Thompson - down.  Bueller?

Ty Johnson - slightly down.  was hoping he would make a but more of a splash.

Giovanni Bernard - down.  Mixon seems fine.

Jordan Wilkins - down.  Mack injury appears to be not much of an issue, though obviously should be monitored.

Dexter Williams - maybe slightly down, given how well those above him are playing.

Mike Boone - maybe slightly down, given how well those above him are playing.

John Kelly - way down.  Should be out of the top tier.

Justice Hill - slightly down.  snaps dropping, though he was never going to be that relevant without an injury.

Chase Edmonds - slightly down.  still would hold in case of DJ injury, but not much of a role this week.

Rashaad Penny - stock down.  can't make the club from the tub.

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9 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

Stock Neutral

Alexander Mattison - probably about the same.  on the plus side, snaps up a bit this week and looks pretty good.  on the minus, cook is destroying. I have at least gained a little confidence that he could play well if something happened to Cook.

Justin Jackson - probably about the same.  on the plus side, snaps up a bit this week and looks pretty good.  on the minus, ekeler is doing great and gordon still looms.

Kareem Hunt - probably the same.  will only be that relevant if Chubb gets hurt. Maybe even going down as the Cleveland offense looks lost. 

Ty Montgomery - same.  meh.

Ryquell Armstead - same.  always dependent on a Fournette injury.

Adrian Peterson - same.  (and maybe should be moved out of the whole lotto ticket group) Yeah, it is really unlikely the Washington offense is good enough to create enough GL touches to make him worthy of anything other than bye week/injury filler. 

 

Stock Down

Darwin Thompson - down.  Bueller? Dust imo. Too many guys involved and they all appear to be ahead of Darwin.

Ty Johnson - slightly down.  was hoping he would make a but more of a splash. Opportunity clear but Lions don't seem to have the inclination to get him involved

Giovanni Bernard - down.  Mixon seems fine. Needs an injury to Mixon to have any value. If Mixon went down, how good do we think Gio would be? Unlike a lot of the other lotto backs, we have at least seen be good. 

Jordan Wilkins - down.  Mack injury appears to be not much of an issue, though obviously should be monitored. 

Dexter Williams - maybe slightly down, given how well those above him are playing Mike Boone - maybe slightly down, given how well those above him are playing.

John Kelly - way down.  Should be out of the top tier. I don't think he belongs on the list. We have never seen him be good, there are multiple guys in front of him, the offense doesn't look nearly as good as expected

Justice Hill - slightly down.  snaps dropping, though he was never going to be that relevant without an injury.

Chase Edmonds - slightly down.  still would hold in case of DJ injury, but not much of a role this week.

Rashaad Penny - stock down.  can't make the club from the tub. I would say neutral at worst. The hammy sounds not serious and Carson had another costly fumble as well as slipped and just fell in the backfield a couple times. 

 

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1 hour ago, Long Ball Larry said:

Stock Up/Stock Down among RBs the main post Tier 1, my next tier, and my tier below that (and Gallman!).


Stock Up

Wayne Gallman - clearly up a lot.

Gus Edwards - slightly up. pretty involved, despite Ingram.

Tony Pollard - slightly up.  obviously needs zeke injury to be relevant, but running well with his opportunities.

Jamal Williams - up, outsnapped Jones.

Jaylen Samuels - stock up.  Conner seems a bit vulnerable

Darrel Williams - up.  If McCoy and Damien stay injured, could be a big deal.

Raheem Mostert - slightly up. clearly in the mix, running well.  obviously depends on coleman coming back.

Jeffery Wilson - up. getting that goal line work.

TJ Yeldon - up.  Singletary hampered.

CJ Prosise - up.  Snap count up, Penny hampered, outsnapped Carson (though they were playing from behind of course)

 

Stock Neutral

Alexander Mattison - probably about the same.  on the plus side, snaps up a bit this week and looks pretty good.  on the minus, cook is destroying.

Justin Jackson - probably about the same.  on the plus side, snaps up a bit this week and looks pretty good.  on the minus, ekeler is doing great and gordon still looms.

Kareem Hunt - probably the same.  will only be that relevant if Chubb gets hurt.

Ty Montgomery - same.  meh.

Ryquell Armstead - same.  always dependent on a Fournette injury.

Adrian Peterson - same.  (and maybe should be moved out of the whole lotto ticket group)

 

Stock Down

Darwin Thompson - down.  Bueller?

Ty Johnson - slightly down.  was hoping he would make a but more of a splash.

Giovanni Bernard - down.  Mixon seems fine.

Jordan Wilkins - down.  Mack injury appears to be not much of an issue, though obviously should be monitored.

Dexter Williams - maybe slightly down, given how well those above him are playing.

Mike Boone - maybe slightly down, given how well those above him are playing.

John Kelly - way down.  Should be out of the top tier.

Justice Hill - slightly down.  snaps dropping, though he was never going to be that relevant without an injury.

Chase Edmonds - slightly down.  still would hold in case of DJ injury, but not much of a role this week.

Rashaad Penny - stock down.  can't make the club from the tub.

Where does Ronald Jones fit?

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15 hours ago, SoBeDad said:

Chase Edmonds and Dare Ogunbowale are at the end of my bench in a 16-team league. I need to drop one, I'm gonna keep Chase since he's only one injury away. Would he be the one if DJ were out?

My problem with Chase is that DJ isn't putting up the type of numbers we expected in that offense.

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11 hours ago, CanaBuc said:

Where does Ronald Jones fit?

to be clear, I wasn't ranking those guys in any particular order.  just commenting.  for instance, I'd still rather have Penny over most of those guys, despite the slight downgrade (IMO), considering that he probably has better proximity/opportunity to major touches than a lot of guys.

I guess I would consider Jones in the same ballpark as Penny, though I am kind of sick of trying to figure out the TB running back situation.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Steeler said:

My problem with Chase is that DJ isn't putting up the type of numbers we expected in that offense.

On Arizona Twitters a few weeks ago, some fans were complaining that DJ was slow to hit the hole, putting some blame on him. He did looked great in open space on that TD reception vs the Giants. I think the biggest problem is the oline.

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Does Ito Smith need to be rostered? I don't see him anywhere on these lists. Certainly possible he's fallen off in past efforts. Curious how hold-worthy he is at this point. Bad O-line and Freeman looks healthy. I'm not even sure he'd be the guy if Freeman went down. 

Edited by Dondante

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7 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Where's Wayne Gallman on the list?

Logically, near the top.  He'll probably be in line for more opportunity than a lot of these guys for the next several weeks--perhaps even 8 weeks.  If you're getting a starting RB for 1/2 the season, your lottery ticket hit. 

That said, I don't think a lot of Gallman.  I won't be surprised if they add someone else a la CJ Anderson and Gallman winds up not seeing the expected touches.  I'm adding him where I can for free, but I don't intend to use any major waiver priority or bid a large %

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10 hours ago, jm192 said:

Logically, near the top.  He'll probably be in line for more opportunity than a lot of these guys for the next several weeks--perhaps even 8 weeks.  If you're getting a starting RB for 1/2 the season, your lottery ticket hit. 

That said, I don't think a lot of Gallman.  I won't be surprised if they add someone else a la CJ Anderson and Gallman winds up not seeing the expected touches.  I'm adding him where I can for free, but I don't intend to use any major waiver priority or bid a large %

Added Gallman to the Honorable Mention list (and NOT the King Maker/Season Changer List) because:

  • @jm192 's opinion which...
  •  matches all the opinions of the FF FA podcasts published today
Edited by daylight
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38 minutes ago, Dondante said:

Does Ito Smith need to be rostered? I don't see him anywhere on these lists. Certainly possible he's fallen off in past efforts. Curious how hold-worthy he is at this point. Bad O-line and Freeman looks healthy. I'm not even sure he'd be the guy if Freeman went down. 

Added Ito Smith - but only for completeness.  😂

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So, is it a consensus that Darrel Williams is now the priority over Darwin Thompson in KC?

 

I, like many others I believe have been stashing Darwin...who we thought hit the little-lotto this past week, but it looked like Crimson Grimace seems to prefer Darrel over Darwin. At least last week. 

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8 minutes ago, 4th&inches said:

So, is it a consensus that Darrel Williams is now the priority over Darwin Thompson in KC?

 

I, like many others I believe have been stashing Darwin...who we thought hit the little-lotto this past week, but it looked like Crimson Grimace seems to prefer Darrel over Darwin. At least last week. 

Drop Thompson, add Williams is #1 in my waiver queue for tonight, FWIW.

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6 minutes ago, 4th&inches said:

So, is it a consensus that Darrel Williams is now the priority over Darwin Thompson in KC?

 

I, like many others I believe have been stashing Darwin...who we thought hit the little-lotto this past week, but it looked like Crimson Grimace seems to prefer Darrel over Darwin. At least last week. 

Probably Darrel over Darwin since Andy Reid typically likes veteran backs who he can trust in pass protection. If you recall, this kept Kareem Hunt off the field during passing downs in his rookie year. Although, Waldman seems to think that Thompson isn't too bad in pass protection: https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2019/08/18/matt-waldmans-rsp-nfl-lens-rb-darwin-thompson-chiefs-pass-protection/. I'm staying away from the KC backfield this year--probably a bone-headed move, but I don't like the uncertainty. Plus, I have a piece of the offense in Kelce and Robinson...

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i agree that the KC backfield is a bit of a headache and Darrel is far from a sure thing, but I am not sure what possible case can be made for Darwin over him at this point.  Maybe if there are practice reports that Darwin is running with the 1s all week?  Maybe Darrel was closer to being up to speed in a week with uncertain availability of the other guys?  Seems like maybe a 2% case.

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3 minutes ago, MindBomb said:

Waldman seems to think that Thompson isn't too bad in pass protection

Waldman's opinion isn't relevant when Andy Reid made it clear that he believes that Darwin has work to do before he can be trusted in pass protection.  And that's no criticism of Waldman.  But he isn't the coach and he doesn't get to watch Darwin in practice every day.

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Just now, Don Hutson said:

Waldman's opinion isn't relevant when Andy Reid made it clear that he believes that Darwin has work to do before he can be trusted in pass protection.  And that's no criticism of Waldman.  But he isn't the coach and he doesn't get to watch Darwin in practice every day.

Agreed. That was my main point. Just thought it relevant to link to Waldman's article. Here's a link to the Andy Reid's comment: https://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-41077254-4.

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