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daylight

2019 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings

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49 minutes ago, daylight said:

Does anyone have an opinion of how I have divided the "King Maker" List vs. the "Honorable Mentions" List?

i.e. Does anyone in the Honorable List belong in the King Maker list?

i.e. Does anyone in the King Maker List belong in the Honorable (or Too Late) List?

 

I think there is a distinct difference between possible "king maker", and someone on the "honorable mentions". It seems fairly obvious, .... or does it?

 

Seems like every year someone we don't much envision, comes out of the woodwork and greatly helps teams.

I tend to think of my "lotto backs" in RB2-ish terms. Exactly how much "better" can they be? Or more appropriately, if thats essentially all we can expect. (RB2-ish range)

 

I place backs like ALEXANDER MATTISON in the "king maker territory", and I would also include JUSTICE HILL in the potential "king maker territory". Mattison, on usage and circumstances alone if Cook goes down. (and nothing wrong with that)

  Justice Hill I view as the opposite. Look at how strong he looked at times in college. I do still think it would take an injury to Ingram to fully spring Justice Hill, but the talent/speed combo is as good as it gets. It may well never come to fruition, nor are we assured a full workload for Hill in the event of Ingram injury. But one thing is for sure, if Ingram goes down, I will be stoked to own Hill, and watch what unfolds. His end of season schedule isn't the greatest, but in the right scenario it wouldn't matter. His pass catching would make up for that.

 

 

 TZM

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4 hours ago, Rove! said:

Who will sign Ajayi?

 

Houston Roughnecks or the St Louis BattleHawks.

There's a chance he could end up on the phantom "Team Nine" after the draft, which is in a few weeks.

 

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7 hours ago, TZMarkie said:

 

I think there is a distinct difference between possible "king maker", and someone on the "honorable mentions". It seems fairly obvious, .... or does it?

 

Seems like every year someone we don't much envision, comes out of the woodwork and greatly helps teams.

I tend to think of my "lotto backs" in RB2-ish terms. Exactly how much "better" can they be? Or more appropriately, if thats essentially all we can expect. (RB2-ish range)

 

I place backs like ALEXANDER MATTISON in the "king maker territory", and I would also include JUSTICE HILL in the potential "king maker territory". Mattison, on usage and circumstances alone if Cook goes down. (and nothing wrong with that)

  Justice Hill I view as the opposite. Look at how strong he looked at times in college. I do still think it would take an injury to Ingram to fully spring Justice Hill, but the talent/speed combo is as good as it gets. It may well never come to fruition, nor are we assured a full workload for Hill in the event of Ingram injury. But one thing is for sure, if Ingram goes down, I will be stoked to own Hill, and watch what unfolds. His end of season schedule isn't the greatest, but in the right scenario it wouldn't matter. His pass catching would make up for that.

 

 

 TZM

You like Hill over Edwards if Ingram gets injured?  Why?

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2 hours ago, gbill2004 said:

You like Hill over Edwards if Ingram gets injured?  Why?

For 2 reasons.

1 - Gus Edwards has already shown he is basically an average runner.  He looked decidedly meh last year  in 11 games. He had exactly 2 receptions, and a mere 2 TDs.  I think most have no idea just how dynamic Hill was in college. He is extremely fast, has great hands and simply runs away from the rest of the guys on the field. (His knock in my opinion , is that he isn't that big bruising back, hes more of a speed and shifty guy, though he has supposedly put on more weight.) Look at some tape on Hill, even if its just a few highlight reels on Youtube. Seriously.

Also read this - https://www.pressboxonline.com/2019/08/05/five-things-to-know-about-ravens-rookie-running-back-justice-hill

  Gus Edwards may indeed be utilized some if Ingram goes down, but its evident Hill is the more athletic and versatile back. The Ravens already know exactly what they have in Edwards. Think low end RB2 numbers, with the hope of decent games on volume. (and that's when he had little competition last year at times)

 

2 - Think about what we are trying to accomplish here.......the thrust of this thread isn't about sniffing out who the next average handcuff guy is, its to possibly stumble onto the next KING MAKER.  You don't draft Hill hoping for low end serviceable numbers in the event of injury, you basically consider him as a strong lottery ticket back. One who could be a league winner if things fell right.  The odds on this happening are not massive,  but every year 1-2 backs light it up down the stretch, and the talent here is as good as any. He has the potential to be that lottery ticket , fantasy season-changing back. Gus Edwards just isn't this type of league winning talent, the upside isn't there, at least not the big upside we are trying to harvest.

  I said it back in 2016 and it was talked about in the first post of this thread........"This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys".

 

 

TZM

 

 

 

Edited by TZMarkie
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Some updates in the new month:

I think Reggie Bonnafon may have leapt-frogged Jordan Scarlett as the backup to own in CAR.

Likely need to clean up the list as Ito Smith, not Brian Hill, seems to be the cuff.

Hilliman looks like the next man up for the Gints (but Elijhaa Penny still there as well).

Brandon Bolden may have leapt-frogged Damien Harris as the guy behind the other three backs (Michel, White, Rex).

Tra Carson brought in to spell Aaron Jones in GB, but that will likely change when Jamaal Williams is healed.

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I would bet that Bolden is only seeing offensive snaps while White and Michel are both healthy because he is a special teams standout. If Michael or White were to go down Harris could leapfrog Bolden, with Bolden staying mostly on ST's. 

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13 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Some updates in the new month:

I think Reggie Bonnafon may have leapt-frogged Jordan Scarlett as the backup to own in CAR.

Likely need to clean up the list as Ito Smith, not Brian Hill, seems to be the cuff.

Hilliman looks like the next man up for the Gints (but Elijhaa Penny still there as well).

Brandon Bolden may have leapt-frogged Damien Harris as the guy behind the other three backs (Michel, White, Rex).

Tra Carson brought in to spell Aaron Jones in GB, but that will likely change when Jamaal Williams is healed.

Made updates.

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11 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

I would bet that Bolden is only seeing offensive snaps while White and Michel are both healthy because he is a special teams standout. If Michael or White were to go down Harris could leapfrog Bolden, with Bolden staying mostly on ST's. 

this

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In Chase Edmonds news.....David Johnson is having some back troubles. I doubt it's long term but there is some discussion that he could miss this week.

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Posted (edited)

Per Rotowire:

"Elijhaa Penny could be in store for an elevated role in the Giants' game plan Thursday against the Patriots with neither Saquon Barkley (ankle) nor Wayne Gallman (concussion) expected to be available to play, Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports.  Analysis: Barkley was a limited participant in practice Tuesday while Gallman was held out of the session entirely, but with the Giants facing a quick turnaround for their Week 6 matchup, the team will likely err on the side of caution with its franchise back and hold him out for a third straight contest. If that's the case, the Giants will count Penny and Jon Hilliman as the lone healthy backfield options on the 53-man roster, though the team would almost certainly promote Austin Walter from the practice squad before Thursday to provide additional depth. Though he's listed as a fullback, Penny spent the first two years in the pro ranks as a tailback and owns a 3.9 yard-per-carry mark over 46 career totes. Considering that Hilliman is an undrafted rookie who has delivered underwhelming production to date, it wouldn't be surprising if the Giants ultimately chose to lean more heavily on Penny as Thursday's contest unfolds."

Anything to see here?

Edited by daylight

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2 hours ago, daylight said:

Per Rotowire:

"Elijhaa Penny could be in store for an elevated role in the Giants' game plan Thursday against the Patriots with neither Saquon Barkley (ankle) nor Wayne Gallman (concussion) expected to be available to play, Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports.  Analysis: Barkley was a limited participant in practice Tuesday while Gallman was held out of the session entirely, but with the Giants facing a quick turnaround for their Week 6 matchup, the team will likely err on the side of caution with its franchise back and hold him out for a third straight contest. If that's the case, the Giants will count Penny and Jon Hilliman as the lone healthy backfield options on the 53-man roster, though the team would almost certainly promote Austin Walter from the practice squad before Thursday to provide additional depth. Though he's listed as a fullback, Penny spent the first two years in the pro ranks as a tailback and owns a 3.9 yard-per-carry mark over 46 career totes. Considering that Hilliman is an undrafted rookie who has delivered underwhelming production to date, it wouldn't be surprising if the Giants ultimately chose to lean more heavily on Penny as Thursday's contest unfolds."

Anything to see here?

Probably nothing to see regardless of opponent, but definitely not against NE.

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26 minutes ago, icehouse said:

Curious. Are those with David Johnson bypassing some other lotto ticket RBs for Chase?

I just dropped Malcolm Brown to grab Chase.

So, there's one yes.  Although Brown's outlook has been fading fast.  (Decided to keep Darrel Williams over Brown, FWIW.)

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2 hours ago, icehouse said:

Curious. Are those with David Johnson bypassing some other lotto ticket RBs for Chase?

It's interesting as Chase has definitive value as a handcuff, which we might very well see this week.

Otherwise, Chase is an interesting stash as he seems to get low but consistent (even growing over the past 3 weeks) in both the run and pass games, and could hold value as ARI continues to protect DJ's health and maybe leverage him more split out wide in this offense. For DJ owners I am not sure you would play both DJ and Chase together any given week.

So in this view, Chase actually becomes potentially more valuable to non-DJ owners as a bye week/flex play than to the DJ owners who likely sit Chase when DJ is healthy.

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I like Chase and he would stash him on my bench if I had room - especially because of Johnson's injury history. I agree with Stompin' Tom's take on him.

I would also consider Murray as a stash if he is available. He had a decent game week 1 (not great but ~12 PPR points). Brees went down in week 2 and his value plummeted and he has been dropped in a bunch of leagues. The offense is run a little differently with Bridgewater at the helm. Brees is due back in the next few weeks and if he gets 75% of what Ingram got last year he will be a good bye week play with possible flex value depending on the matchup.  Obviously Kamara is by far the #1 RB in that system.

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If yahoo is to be believed, the Bonnafon guy is season changing/winning handcuff.

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12 minutes ago, L5UT1ger said:

If yahoo is to be believed, the Bonnafon guy is season changing/winning handcuff.

More like a season saving handcuff. Not sure about the winning part. Yet to be proven in a starting role, but if you have CMC, looks like he's the handcuff to have.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, icehouse said:

Curious. Are those with David Johnson bypassing some other lotto ticket RBs for Chase?

Guy in 1st in my league has DJ. Spent 35% on chase. I myself put in 14% and there was 2 other bids at 20 and 23%. 

Edited by RealReactions

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11 minutes ago, 4th&inches said:

With recent Gurley news (link below), not only Malcolm Brown, but possibly even Darrell Henderson would be worth the speculative add this week:

 

I drafted Henderson thinking he might be something. Dropped him when he didn't do anything for a few weeks. Started picking him back up to see if it hits if this Gurley thing turns into more.

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Hard to find much out of the Dolphins dumpster fire, but what about Mark Walton?

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports/20191009/miami-dolphins-why-rb-mark-walton-really-impresses-coaches-and-is-in-line-for-more-reps

Seems like he's passing (or passed) Ballage on the depth chart. And while Drake seems to be doing OK with limited opportunities, it's not like he's had a stranglehold on the starting RB job. And Walton seems to be impressing in the passing game, which is where the RBs on this team are going to have any value.

Edited by zamboni

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Quote

Eagles coach Doug Pederson indicated that Boston Scott will be promoted to the team's active roster ahead of Sunday's Week 6 game against the Vikings.

The Eagles were able to stash Scott on their practice squad after he was let go at the end of training camp. Scott gives the Eagles' backfield a much-needed healthy body with Darren Sproles (quad) slated to miss time.

RELATED: 

Philadelphia Eagles

SOURCE: Reuben Frank on Twitter

Oct 11, 2019, 11:13 AM ET

 

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On 10/10/2019 at 3:40 AM, RealReactions said:

Guy in 1st in my league has DJ. Spent 35% on chase. I myself put in 14% and there was 2 other bids at 20 and 23%. 

Chase is living up to his name

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Free agent Jay Ajayi (knee) is expected to work out for teams next week.

Ajayi is a full year removed from a torn ACL. He's told teams he's healthy and could start to draw interest if he can prove it in workouts. Ajayi has a scary knee history, but he's still just 26 and averaged 4.1 YPC in three starts before going down last year. It may take the right situation, but Ajayi should resurface on a non-guaranteed deal.

SOURCE: Les Bowen on Twitter

Oct 12, 2019, 11:12 AM ET

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Quote

Free agent RB Jay Ajayi will work out for the Cardinals on Tuesday.

Ajayi is over his 2018 ACL tear and will begin his free-agent tour in Arizona. The Cards are also taking a look at former Chief Spencer Ware, suggesting the team expects to be without David Johnson (who was limited to three snaps in Sunday's win over the Giants) when they visit New Orleans in Week 8. Both would be depth options behind presumed starter Chase Edmonds, who broke out for 150 yards (126 rushing, 24 receiving) and three touchdowns against the Giants.

RELATED: 

David Johnson

, Arizona Cardinals

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Oct 21, 2019, 11:28 AM ET

 

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On 10/13/2019 at 8:38 AM, 4th&inches said:

Trayveon Williams was just activated. Depending on league size, he might be worth a stash

Interesting. RIght now neither Mixon nor Gio are getting anything done, mostly (IMHO) related to the sorry state of the Bengals' o-line.

Outside of listing as a guy who potentially gets carreis if Gio/Mixon goes out, not sure he's a higher priority stash than others. Not saying he's not worth listing -- it's a great call-out, @4th&inches . Right now I am focused on who might be a better stash right now, balancing out injury opportunity to longer term value -- Ty Johnson/DJ McKissic vs. Gus Edwards or Walton or even Gio, or a guy like Hunt.

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17 minutes ago, daylight said:

Kerryon Johnson went on IR today

 

Ty Johnson's stock just went through the roof.

 

 

 TZM

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3 minutes ago, TZMarkie said:

Ty Johnson's stock just went through the roof.

 TZM

What % of your FAAB would you spend on him?  I'm very hesitant.  Both K Johnson and Ty Johnson are averaging <4 YPC and DET is 18th in YPC and 19th in attempts.

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1 minute ago, daylight said:

What % of your FAAB would you spend on him?  I'm very hesitant.  Both K Johnson and Ty Johnson are averaging <4 YPC and DET is 18th in YPC and 19th in attempts.

He's obviously worth a lot in order to snag him, but that could also all turn to dust if the Lions go out and sign a FA.

What to do, what to do....

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5 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

He's obviously worth a lot in order to snag him, but that could also all turn to dust if the Lions go out and sign a FA.

What to do, what to do....

Or trade for Drake.

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7 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Ty Johnson's obviously worth a lot in order to snag him, but that could also all turn to dust if the Lions go out and sign a FA.

What to do, what to do....

I don't think he belongs in the King Maker / Season Changer list.  Agree or Disagree?

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10 minutes ago, daylight said:

What % of your FAAB would you spend on him?  I'm very hesitant.  Both K Johnson and Ty Johnson are averaging <4 YPC and DET is 18th in YPC and 19th in attempts.

I'm not as much into FAAB as others, and I rarely look into that strategy side of things.  But as with any pickup, it likely boils down to need.

How badly do you need a RB?

 

I will say this, I have priority in 2 separate re-draft leagues. One I am 3rd in priority (judging from what I see, I should land Ty Johnson there) and in the other league I am #1.

The league where I am #1, is tricky. Mainly because I am so loaded at RB there. I am primed up for a playoff run there.

(In said league I have this at RB, DEVONTA FREEMAN, LATAVIUS MURRAY, TEVIN COLEMAN, MATT BREIDA,  DAVID JOHNSON , CHASE EDMONDS) So I can choose to keep priority, or snag what should be the hot pickup and stash him on my bench.   I might actually use Ty Johnson because of byes, but the more I think about it, I am contemplating on just keeping priority. Once I reach #1 priority, I am extremely patient on who I pick up, as you never know who will be the fantasy season changer.  Some seasons I just hang on and hang on, and never sacrifice priority, but you need to take everything into consideration. Is TY Johnson a big pickup?  I don't know, but it certainly looks like a situation where most re-draft owners just have to bite the bullet and get him if they need a RB.

 

If I weren't truly desperate in FAAB, I would likely see if I could grab him for a small FAAB offer, like 18%-20%. If I get him great, but since I'm not desperate, you could save those bullets for a better more sure-fire scenario.

 

 TZM

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3 hours ago, daylight said:

Kerryon Johnson went on IR today

Zach Zenner just released by the Saints, would not be surprised to see the Lions bring him back. ZZ will never be considered a stud but watching him for years I had the opinion he always seemed to out produce the other Lion RB's. He does everything fairly well and for fantasy he can be the goal line back and also good in pass pro and receiving.

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38 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

So worth a high waiver claim? I understand FAAB is better but one league has waivers.

If a guy with midlevel RB2 potential would be a big gain to your team, yes. 

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6 hours ago, daylight said:

I don't think he belongs in the King Maker / Season Changer list.  Agree or Disagree?

Agree, but willing to be wrong. Heard a lot of great hype about Johnson and that all he needs is a chance.

Well, he has it -- for now. Let's see what he does with it. And let's see what the Lions do next in terms of adding to this corps or not.

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On 10/10/2019 at 10:35 AM, zamboni said:

Hard to find much out of the Dolphins dumpster fire, but what about Mark Walton?

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports/20191009/miami-dolphins-why-rb-mark-walton-really-impresses-coaches-and-is-in-line-for-more-reps

Seems like he's passing (or passed) Ballage on the depth chart. And while Drake seems to be doing OK with limited opportunities, it's not like he's had a stranglehold on the starting RB job. And Walton seems to be impressing in the passing game, which is where the RBs on this team are going to have any value.

Walton vs. Ty. Who will be more valuable?

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What is everyone’s preferred order with Guice, Armstead, and Snell? Having a hard time ranking them. 

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2 hours ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

What is everyone’s preferred order with Guice, Armstead, and Snell? Having a hard time ranking them. 

 

ROCK ARMSTEAD all day every day.

Guice is stuck on a bad team mired in a committee and Snell would essentially need 2 long term injuries to rise to prominence. (although admittedly thats already sort of the case)

 

 The Jags have OAK and ATL in weeks 15-16 and they haven't shied away from giving their lead back (Fournette) so many carries its crazy. Oh, did we forget Fournette has a bit of an injury history?

The Armstead/Fournette backfield has "season saver" written all over it in the fantasy playoffs.

I have Fournette + Armstead on my bench in 1/4 re-drafts, and I sent offers tonight for Fournette in 2 others.  I have slipped Armstead on my end of bench in another, and may well tuck him there in all 4.

I currently have Latavius Murray in 4/4, so I believe in cuffing the big workload scenarios.

 

 TZM

 

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5 hours ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

What is everyone’s preferred order with Guice, Armstead, and Snell? Having a hard time ranking them. 

Really different situations, so hard for me to rank them.

If you are looking for a guy who can deliver steady points, that would be Guice -- once healthy that, is. His floor might be low because the Skins look terrible offensively, but seems to me he has a chance for anywhere from 50-70% of the carries once he's back.

Snell has value in the here and now -- but once Jaylen Samuels is back over the next game or two, I think Snell is mostly relegated to the bench and only has value if Connor or Samuels go out again. And given their health history, there is a chance of that.

Armstead would be a season saver and pure lotto gold but doesn't have value now or through the last half of the season, and is wholly dependent on a Fournette injury.

Such different situations, so I would say if you are looking for a guy to contribute now, Snell. A guy you can hold but will need to potentially contribute as a flex later, Guice. And a guy you can afford to hold on to an not play at all unless/until he hits as a pure lotto ticket, Armstead.

 

Three guys I am trying to rank are Guice, Samuels, and Hunt. I will have a need for a flex contributor starting ~Week 10/11. All three of these backs, if healthy, will see some carries. All three have a path to get a large share of carries if the starter falters or they simply flat out outperform them. So by comparison standards, I think this group is more apples-to-apples.

How would you rank them if you were looking for a potential flex contributor with upside?

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3 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Really different situations, so hard for me to rank them.

Armstead would be a season saver and pure lotto gold but doesn't have value now or through the last half of the season, and is wholly dependent on a Fournette injury. And a guy you can afford to hold on to an not play at all unless/until he hits as a pure lotto ticket, Armstead.

 

Three guys I am trying to rank are Guice, Samuels, and Hunt. I will have a need for a flex contributor starting ~Week 10/11. All three of these backs, if healthy, will see some carries. All three have a path to get a large share of carries if the starter falters or they simply flat out outperform them. So by comparison standards, I think this group is more apples-to-apples.

How would you rank them if you were looking for a potential flex contributor with upside?

 

 Some snip. I wrote a bit on Armstead , and included it it in the "playoff push" thread that Wrigley started, and I also placed it into the Armstead thread as well.

 

 Hunt can come back in week 10, but would you fully trust him unless he had at least one week back playing?  Essentially week 11.  Chubb has looked so good at times, I don't see where Hunt would get but so much work. (Of course injuries can happen, and we should always keep that in mind)

Samuels would likely be one you can depend on, or at least for SOME type of low floor of work. Note they worked him pretty extensively in a game or two already, with end arounds, handoffs, even a pass or two if I recall correctly. Conner hasn't looked great, and Samuels has looked very good, even back well into last year. In fact, Jaylen Samuels might be one of the better lottery back type scenarios in the league. His schedule isn't the greatest, but he DOES have CINCY WEEK 12, AND AZ WEEK 14. He would be my choice TBH.

 Guice is potentially the best of the three, but we are closing in on a couple of lost seasons for Guice.  I know the temptation will be there for the Skins to "roll their Corvette out of the garage and see what they have", but I don't see any real positives to that.  Its a waste of a season, they are already out of the playoff picture and what can they gain by giving Guice a bunch of work.  Other than to give him a bit of playing time, the answer is nothing.

 

 TZM

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2 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

Mattison vs Henderson?  Who do you prefer for this season?

Henderson because he's about to take the second back job from Brown and arthritis is chronic, whereas Dalvin's injury history can be traced to one source and isn't chronic and he's running really healthily (not to mention he looks 1 1/2 times better than Gurley, who doesn't even look as good as Darrell...). Plus, local watchers hate the LA line while MN loves theirs. 

Edited by rockaction
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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

Henderson because he's about to take the second back job from Brown and arthritis is chronic, whereas Dalvin's injury history can be traced to one source and isn't chronic and he's running really healthily (not to mention he looks 1 1/2 times better than Gurley, who doesn't even look as good as Darrell...). Plus, local watchers hate the LA line while MN loves theirs. 

This is my feeling and is why I have Henderson in 2 leagues, BUT I do wonder if Henderson is less likely than Mattison to be a true bellcow because I think that if Gurley goes out then more of a timeshare with Brown is likely as opposed to MIN where Mattison could be the guy.  Plus Gurley's condition being chronic means that there is sort of a week-to-week feeling of the whole thing, whereas Mattison will be clear when to start and when to not.  It's like Mattison has a 15% chance of being relevant, but relevancy for him means like a 90% chance of RB1.  Whereas Henderson has a 40% chance of being relevant, but only a 65% of RB1.  

Or something like that.  Henderson has a higher median outcome but Mattison has the higher ceiling, if we are talking about real lotto, that's Mattison.

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