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2019 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (1 Viewer)

I think Walton is still the running back to own in Miami.  Obviously that isn't an option for a team that is clawing to make the fantasy playoffs.  But Walton will be back week 14.  He will be fresh.  Miami plays the Jets, Giants, and Bengals during the fantasy playoffs.  Those are all games where game script might allow Walton stay involved for the whole game.

 
I think Walton is still the running back to own in Miami.  Obviously that isn't an option for a team that is clawing to make the fantasy playoffs.  But Walton will be back week 14.  He will be fresh.  Miami plays the Jets, Giants, and Bengals during the fantasy playoffs.  Those are all games where game script might allow Walton stay involved for the whole game.
Doesn't get any more bold than starting a just-off-suspension Dolphins RB in the fantasy playoffs.

(Some would substitute "desperate" for "bold" in the above sentence.)

 
This is the correct way to see it, in my opinion.

Ballage is a “2:00 fox”, as the old saying from the bar goes. At 8:00 PM you didn’t even notice him sitting there. Around 11:00 (and 4 drinks later) you thought, “hmm...maybe.”

by the time the bartender is yelling “last call!” you’re tying to figure out if there’s a motel nearby & planning your exit strategy in case Ballage is a stage-5 clinger.  :unsure:
The Sheila Sauvage of fantasy football

 
Noticed this in my snap count research - Gus Edwards is pretty close to 50-50 with Mark Ingram

Week 6
Mark Ingram - 38% of snaps
Gus Edwards - 41%
Justice Hill - 21%

Week 7
Mark Ingram -51% of snaps
Gus Edwards - 37%
Justice Hill - 7%

Week 9
Mark Ingram -44% of snaps
Gus Edwards - 40%
Justice Hill - 14%
 

 
Really tempted to drop D. Henderson for G. Edwards now that M. Brown is in the mix. 

Henderson seems much more explosive, but the LAR schedule looks horrible.

 
Cool thread - just stumbled on it.  Here are some current ownership percentages of guys that we might be considering - not listing anybody that is less than 60% owned.  Roster percentages are from ESPN

ARI - Chase Edmonds 29.0% rostered
BAL - Gus Edwards 4.4%
BAL - Justice Hill 3.5%
BUF - Frank Gore 50.6%
CAR - Reggie Bonnafon 1.7%
CLE - Kareem Hunt 13.3%
DAL - Tony Pollard 12.1%
DET - Ty Johnson 41.0%
DET - J.D. McKissic 13.5%
IND - Nyheim Hines 28.7%
IND - Jordan Wilkins 0.6%
JAX - Ryquell Armstead 1.8%
KC - Darrel Williams 4.7%
KC - Darwin Thompson 5.7%
LAR - Darrel Henderson 20.7%
LAR - Malcolm Brown 9.4%
MIA - Kalen Ballage 22.7%
MIA - Mark Walton 17.1%
MIN - Alexander Mattison 20.2%
NE - Rex Burkhead 17.2%
NYG - Wayne Gallman 8.2%
NYJ - Bilal Powell 1.5%
NYJ - Ty Montgomery 3.5%
OAK - Jalen Richard 14.1%
OAK - Deandre Washington 0.9%
PIT - Trey Edmunds 5.0%
PIT - Benny Snell 2.7%
SEA - Rashad Penny 36.1%
SEA - C.J. Prosise 0.5%
SF - Raheem Mostert 5.7%
SF - Jeff Wilson 1.3%
TB - Peyton Barber 43.4%
TB - Dare Ogunbowale 1.7%
TEN - Dion Lewis 12.1%
WAS - Adrian Peterson 58.1%
WAS - Derrius Guice 37.3%
WAS - Chris Thompson 23.9%
 

 
Doesn't get any more bold than starting a just-off-suspension Dolphins RB in the fantasy playoffs.

(Some would substitute "desperate" for "bold" in the above sentence.)
Most probably won't start Walton week 14 but they probably could.  He will likely return to starting duties.  He won't be coming back from injury.  Even if he does nothing for a month, he is in good enough shape this deep into the season that he'll still come back in shape.  He will come back fresh.  Against 3 bad teams.  He could be a league winner facing the Bengals in week 16.

 
For a brief moment yesterday I owned 3 Miami running backs on the same roster.  I had a stranglehold on the run game of the worst team in the NFL.  
And yet, if you for example owned all four (five?) backs on the best team in the NFL (49ers) you’d probably be just as frustrated trying to decide who to start.

(And if anyone takes issue with the 49ers over NE, owning the Patriot backfield would not have been a picnic either...)

 
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So here's some of my thoughts on the matter, with the people still available in my league.  My #1 RB is Alvin Kamara.  My #2 RB will vary from week to week, but will be one of these guys below.  We have a short bench so don't be surprised that so many guys are available.

I'd welcome any thoughts on recommended changes.

Miles Sanders - Eagles - currently on my roster - I have some optimism for him.  There have been comments about him getting more playing time as the season goes on.  But Jordan Howard is definitely serviceable at least and will almost certainly get all the goal line work.  So I doubt Sanders ever gets the lead role unless Howard gets hurt.

Latavius Murray - Saints - currently on my roster - if he turns into 2017 Mark Ingram and Kamara turns into 2017 Kamara, my problems are solved.  Even if he ends up being 2018 Ingram I'd feel OK with him as my RB2.  Just always scary to start two RBs from the same team (which I am doing this week).

Darrel Henderson - Rams - currently on my roster - very dependent on Gurley's health, somewhat dependent on Malcolm Brown's health.  Playoff schedule is tough for the Rams.

J.D McKissic - Lions - currently on my roster - At 5' 10" and 187 pounds, he's not getting goal line work.  But seems to be a better pass catcher than Ty Johnson (and my league is PPR).  Had a favorable write up in The Athletic in an article by Eric Moody.  Lions should be a pass-first team.

These guys below are all on the Waiver Wire

Malcolm Brown - Rams - at the moment I am preferring Henderson, but earlier this season I preferred Brown, so who knows

Adrian Peterson - Redskins - he's actually looked good lately and has a Bye to get some rest.  Average to Good matchups ROS except week 15 vs. Eagles.  Haskins starting should be a negative for the offense.  Redskins might want to give Guice more run to see what they have in him.  Or they might decide to keep Peterson on the field more to give Haskins a better shot to see if Haskins has what it takes.  If it were me coaching the team, I think I'd rather keep Peterson on the field most of the time, primarily to give help to the rookie QB.  IMHO, It's more important to see what Haskins can do than to see what Guice can do, and more important to save Haskins's confidence than Guice's confidence.

Derrius Guice - Redskins - same schedule as Peterson.  Same concerns about Haskins and the offense as a whole.  Might get a lot of play if Redskins want to see what Guice has to offer.  Might get held back if they have more confidence in Peterson being able to help Haskins.

Alexander Mattison - Vikings - seemingly everybody's first choice for a handcuff/stash.  I've avoided him due to the Week 12 Bye (short bench) - would definitely give him more consideration once week 11 is in the books, even if Dalvin Cook shows no signs of slowing down.  Every other RB on this page either has the Bye this week (and I already have my 2 starters) or has already had it.

Gus Edwards - Ravens - nearly splitting snaps with Mark Ingram, on a good offense.  And if Ingram goes down gets a big workload.  Definitely somebody I am thinking about.

Kalen Ballage - Dolphins - I don't think this guy is any good, but he should be a clear starting RB for the next 4 weeks, which is worth something.  Just ask Joe Mixon.

Rex Burkhead - Patriots - No telling which Patriots RB will be the guy any given week, but Burkhead is a better runner than James White (but not as good a receiver) and a better receiver than Sony Michel (who looked awful at the beginning of the season, but might be improving some).

Ryquell Armstead - Jaguars - I view him as valuable only if Fournette goes down

Reggie Bonnafon - Panthers - I'd view him as useless unless McCaffery goes down - purely a lottery ticket

I'd welcome any thoughts on recommended changes.

 
And yet, if you for example owned all four (five?) backs on the best team in the NFL (49ers) you’d probably be just as frustrated trying to decide who to start.

(And if anyone takes issue with the 49ers over NE, owning the Patriot backfield would not have been a picnic either...)
A piece of the best run game is better than a piece of the worst.  The San Fran running backs could be Kingmakers.  Possibly.  I'll roster that potential.  That kinetic energy.

 
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Darrel Henderson - Rams - currently on my roster - very dependent on Gurley's health, somewhat dependent on Malcolm Brown's health.  Playoff schedule is tough for the Rams.

Derrius Guice - Redskins - same schedule as Peterson.  Same concerns about Haskins and the offense as a whole.  Might get a lot of play if Redskins want to see what Guice has to offer.  Might get held back if they have more confidence in Peterson being able to help Haskins.

Alexander Mattison - Vikings - seemingly everybody's first choice for a handcuff/stash.  I've avoided him due to the Week 12 Bye (short bench) - would definitely give him more consideration once week 11 is in the books, even if Dalvin Cook shows no signs of slowing down.  Every other RB on this page either has the Bye this week (and I already have my 2 starters) or has already had it.

Gus Edwards - Ravens - nearly splitting snaps with Mark Ingram, on a good offense.  And if Ingram goes down gets a big workload.  Definitely somebody I am thinking about.

Kalen Ballage - Dolphins - I don't think this guy is any good, but he should be a clear starting RB for the next 4 weeks, which is worth something.  Just ask Joe Mixon.

Rex Burkhead - Patriots - No telling which Patriots RB will be the guy any given week, but Burkhead is a better runner than James White (but not as good a receiver) and a better receiver than Sony Michel (who looked awful at the beginning of the season, but might be improving some).

Ryquell Armstead - Jaguars - I view him as valuable only if Fournette goes down

Reggie Bonnafon - Panthers - I'd view him as useless unless McCaffery goes down - purely a lottery ticket

I'd welcome any thoughts on recommended changes.
Here's how I've ranked these guys/rostered them:

1. A. Mattison -- Have him rostered and will hold understanding a) Cook's injury history, and b) a sweet fantasy playoff schedule. League winner potential and some weekly value.

2. D. Guice -- Anytime you can potentially grab a #1RB with talent, you do it. I currently have him rostered. Not sure what the deal will be next week with AP,  but there's a matchup there vs. NYJ. Other matchups look good to: DET, @CAR, GB, PHI (not good), NYG. Who knows...Haskins may start to roll and the Wash offense becomes sneaky down the stretch here.

3. R. Armstead -- Fornette injury history and with Foles back I think this offense rolls a bit more. He's on waivers and I'm dying to get my hands on him. That said, with the bye week the Fornette owners aren't panicking to pick him up so you can probably still get him this week in waivers.

4. G. Edwards -- Just so much potential with this running game and Ingram aint no spring chicken. J. Hill would get some burn here as well, but I have to think they'll want to limit L. Jackson's bumps and bruises as they get closer to the playoffs.

5. D. Henderson -- I just dropped him. Painful. Wanted to keep him but had to pick up a kicker. With M. Brown back healthy and Gurley having a week to heal up a bit I don't see a ton of short term potential. Also, the schedule doesn't look nice regardless. I'm going to be looking to pick Henderson back up if possible.

6. R. Bonnafon -- Just a hunch, but I just don't think CMC is doing down. The guy is an alien. Not even sure Bonnafon would get all the carries in the case of a CMC injury. Not only that, this entire offense would probably fall to pieces. Not interested.

7. R. Burkhead -- Had him rostered earlier this year and lucked out when he scored vs Miami. Not interested now. Too many mouths to feed, the offense isn't clicking nor is the offensive line, and Burkhead is injury prone.

Others I have my eye on:

* M. Haskins -- Could see Ballage busting.

* R. Penny -- Carson getting so many touches. Bye week coming up so no need to grab.

* J. Wilkins -- In the case Mack goes down.

* W. Gallman -- I own Barkley. Bye week coming up so not bothering.

* M. Walton -- Out 4 weeks, but if the Miami backfield is a mess may grab early. Miami's schedule not bad down the stretch. Could be a similar situation to Guice above.

 
So if both are available, do people prefer Adrian Peterson or Derrius Guice rest of season?  I'm leaning towards Peterson.  I'm thinking the split will be 70-30 in favor of Peterson (assuming both are healthy).

Adrian Peterson - Redskins - he's actually looked good lately and has a Bye to get some rest.  Average to Good matchups ROS except week 15 vs. Eagles.  Haskins starting should be a negative for the offense.  Redskins might want to give Guice more run to see what they have in him.  Or they might decide to keep Peterson on the field more to give Haskins a better shot to see if Haskins has what it takes.  If it were me coaching the team, I think I'd rather keep Peterson on the field most of the time, primarily to give help to the rookie QB.  IMHO, It's more important to see what Haskins can do than to see what Guice can do, and more important to save Haskins's confidence than Guice's confidence.

Derrius Guice - Redskins - same schedule as Peterson.  Same concerns about Haskins and the offense as a whole.  Might get a lot of play if Redskins want to see what Guice has to offer.  Might get held back if they have more confidence in Peterson being able to help Haskins.

I'm thinking the split will be 70-30 in favor of Peterson (assuming both are healthy).

 
Is Brian Hill an "empty your FAAB wallet" Waiver action this week?
I think so.  Devonta is a prime candidate to get shut down for the season even with a minor injury.  He could even be put on IR on Friday.  Brian Hill has every down back potential.  He is  easily worth 100% of FAAB.

 
Is Brian Hill an "empty your FAAB wallet" Waiver action this week?


I think so.  Devonta is a prime candidate to get shut down for the season even with a minor injury.  He could even be put on IR on Friday.  Brian Hill has every down back potential.  He is  easily worth 100% of FAAB.


Is Brian Hill an "empty your FAAB wallet" Waiver action this week?

Does anyone have an argument AGAINST Brian Hill being an "empty your FAAB wallet"?

@Stompin' Tom Connors @Long Ball Larry @TZMarkie @Dr. Dan @Ilov80s @JFS171 ?


Nope. If you have a need at RB- even just a back-up in case of injury, he's worth the dump. 


Anyone else have an argument AGAINST?

@Buck Bradcanon @davearm @Football Jones @The Dude @bicycle_seat_sniffer @Ted Lange as your Bartender @4th and Inches @zamboni @cloppbeast @MindBomb @hardcoredx @IHEARTFF ?

 
The argument against Hill is that Freeman has had the Falcons' lead back role all year and yielded RB3 level production with it (including 7 of 9 games with less than 40 rush yards).  Maybe Hill can be much more productive than Freeman in the same offense (and I've heard others suggest that's probable due to less competition for touches).  Or maybe he gets about the same production, in which case his value is not that high.

Anyway, guys come out of the woodwork late in the FF season every year, so I'm not missing out on the chance that Hill could be that guy this year.  Just not expecting it.

 
The argument against Hill is that Freeman has had the Falcons' lead back role all year and yielded RB3 level production with it (including 7 of 9 games with less than 40 rush yards).  Maybe Hill can be much more productive than Freeman in the same offense (and I've heard others suggest that's probable due to less competition for touches).  Or maybe he gets about the same production, in which case his value is not that high.

Anyway, guys come out of the woodwork late in the FF season every year, so I'm not missing out on the chance that Hill could be that guy this year.  Just not expecting it.
Fair point about Freeman not having much success this year, but don't underestimate a potential 3-down back with fresh legs and something to prove.

With only a handful of weeks left in the regular season, the odds of another guy with a golden opportunity like Hill is being presented is low. From what I watched of Qadree Ollison in college (my son goes to Pitt), he's a one-dimensional banger and probably isn't much threat to Hill's workload. Certainly not in the passing game.

All that said, I'd be mindful that Freeman could still return this year - it's still his backfield when he does.

 
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The argument against Hill is that Freeman has had the Falcons' lead back role all year and yielded RB3 level production with it (including 7 of 9 games with less than 40 rush yards).  Maybe Hill can be much more productive than Freeman in the same offense (and I've heard others suggest that's probable due to less competition for touches).  Or maybe he gets about the same production, in which case his value is not that high.

Anyway, guys come out of the woodwork late in the FF season every year, so I'm not missing out on the chance that Hill could be that guy this year.  Just not expecting it.
Freeman is averaging 13.5 points per game this season in PPR.  That might be a bit disappointing for a high third round pick but getting 13.5 points a week from of a waiver wire pickup is aces.

 
Freeman is averaging 13.5 points per game this season in PPR.  That might be a bit disappointing for a high third round pick but getting 13.5 points a week from of a waiver wire pickup is aces.
The glass-half-empty view is that receiving yards and TDs have kept Freeman's ppg from completely cratering.  After 9 games he has 371 yards on the ground, and zero TDs.  That's... putrid.

To have any value, Hill has to greatly surpass that rushing line, and/or maintain the same receiving numbers.

I've got my claim in for the guy, but I'm not expecting much.

 
Mike Davis potential McC handcuff? 
Came here to add him -- value is diminished given that he an Bonnafon will split (and a corresponding decrease in Bonnafon's lotto ticket attractiveness -- which is too bad as I was really eyeing him for once I got through post-WK 11 bye issues). Bonnafon looked strong in relief for CMC in a game or two, but I imagine it will be a split backfield if CMC ails, limiting both's upside.

As to Hill -- yes he's a great target handcuff/lotto. Would not be emptying the bank unless you need a one- to two-week filler -- I am not sure how serious Freeman's injury is. Recent reports show it may be more minor, which means Hill's value may be capped off very soon.

 
I have definitive proof that R. Mostert is the league winner - I held this guy for several weeks but finally had to cut him last week due to bye week issues.  I figured I could risk losing him because both Coleman and Breida were healthy at the time and now Breida is injured.  Oh, and to make matters worse my opponent this week picked him up :cry:   :kicksrock:  

:ptts:

 
Came here to add him -- value is diminished given that he an Bonnafon will split (and a corresponding decrease in Bonnafon's lotto ticket attractiveness -- which is too bad as I was really eyeing him for once I got through post-WK 11 bye issues). 
Mike Davis' base salary is only $411,000 so the Panthers are on the hook for a little less than $200,000.  This signing could be entirely a depth move by the Panthers.  

 
I couldn't pull the trigger. I figure he is a two week rental, with one of those being against TB, who plays the run very well.
I’m on the B Hill bus.

In some ways to block my opponent who has freeman and little depth. But, these next two weeks are bye heavy so he could get the start.

Cant wait to edit his highlight reel to the Benny Hill theme song.

 
Question without making it about any individual players.

Do you give up on what is your 5th WR...even if seen as a quality guy...for a top type lotto handcuff at RB.

 
Depends on which WR & which RB
Well...I didn't want to get into a Assistant Coach thing.  But since you ask.  Ridley is the WR.  Mattison the RB (yes, I can't believe someone has left him sit there given some of the bench options in my league...Im already sitting with Miles Sanders as a sort of lotto pick that I can still flex if needed...this would be adding another...but the home run if an injury happened).  Ridley is sort of his own lotto at WR.  Flexable at times, but if Julio went down, and he was the #1...that could be very nice.

 
Question without making it about any individual players.

Do you give up on what is your 5th WR...even if seen as a quality guy...for a top type lotto handcuff at RB.
I  only carry the minimum WRs I need to meet the starting lineup requirements - the remaining roster spots are starting RBs and Lotto RBs

 
I  only carry the minimum WRs I need to meet the starting lineup requirements - the remaining roster spots are starting RBs and Lotto RBs
Good strategy probably...as there are guys like D. Parker and other WRs available in my league were I to need another WR (with Adams, Chark, DJ Moore, and K. Allen...I feel pretty set)

 
I'm surprised there's not more love for Mckissic, who could be Theo Riddick lite going forward. With Ty in concussion protocol, and Washington in 2 weeks, there may be opportunity for the next 2 weeks.

 
I'm surprised there's not more love for Mckissic, who could be Theo Riddick lite going forward. With Ty in concussion protocol, and Washington in 2 weeks, there may be opportunity for the next 2 weeks.
Added Mckissic to the Honorable Mentions.

 
I'm surprised there's not more love for Mckissic, who could be Theo Riddick lite going forward. With Ty in concussion protocol, and Washington in 2 weeks, there may be opportunity for the next 2 weeks.
Ty Johnson not practicing, remains in concussion protocol. Maybe not unusual for a Wednesday.

 
sho nuff said:
Good strategy probably...as there are guys like D. Parker and other WRs available in my league were I to need another WR (with Adams, Chark, DJ Moore, and K. Allen...I feel pretty set)
I always do this as well. I hate choosing between WR3's for my lineup. I roster 2 WR for starters and 1 WR for flex if I don't have a good RB flex. If I have a good RB flex and am through my bye weeks, I only hold 2 WR. If one of my WR gets hurt I can always pick up someone on the waiver wire who would be just as good as a JAG I could have been rostering. Lotto RB's and backup RB's all the way on my bench. And sometimes a 2nd D for matchups. I haven't won a fantasy title in about 5 years so take this all with a pillar of salt. 

 
Is it just me or is Mostert SF (limited practice participation aside) looking like a pre-emptive pickup (at a minimum) and a what the heck flex (at a maximum)?

 
Is it just me or is Mostert SF (limited practice participation aside) looking like a pre-emptive pickup (at a minimum) and a what the heck flex (at a maximum)?
So I had an extra spot on my roster when I put Kittle on IR as soon as he was deemed OUT last week. I could only pick up a player from Seattle or San Francisco. I picked up Mostert thinking oh well I'll just cut him if I need to after that week. Well here I am keeping him I suppose.

 
Is it just me or is Mostert SF (limited practice participation aside) looking like a pre-emptive pickup (at a minimum) and a what the heck flex (at a maximum)?
Dear God it's not just you. I added him in two leagues, and then dropped him in one because I have four backs like him and I needed a defense. His YPC is sick. He can do a lot with limited touches, though Jeff Wilson and Coleman will get work inside the twenty. 

 
Is it just me or is Mostert SF (limited practice participation aside) looking like a pre-emptive pickup (at a minimum) and a what the heck flex (at a maximum)?
I’m flexing him over Hyde right now. Don’t like the game script for that game. Feels like it’ll be a lot more Duke. Lamars gonna dump points on that Texans defense

 
I’m flexing him over Hyde right now. Don’t like the game script for that game. Feels like it’ll be a lot more Duke. Lamars gonna dump points on that Texans defense
That's bold.  Texans could just as easily lean on Hyde to keep their defense off the field.

 

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