Keeper league: Kamara or Conner? (1 Viewer)

I have the 12th pick in a 12 team half ppr league. I am losing sleep over who to keep for my team this year.  I can keep Kamara in the 1st Round with the #12 overall pick or I can keep Conner at 6.1.

The knee jerk thought is Conner!!!!  1st/2nd round RB in the 6th round?!?!?  No brainer, case closed.  Hear me out. 

I want to hear from y'all whether I am crazy to consider Kamara at 12th overall.  I think Kamara is going to be the #1 RB this year.  He lost his running buddy and Murray is nothing more than a veteran journeyman at this point.  Looking at last years scoring there was a massive drop off between RB1 and 2 & 3, and a big drop off again below that.  So getting a good crack at the #1 scorer in fantasy this year with the 12th pick seems like a decent swing for the fences.  Factor in injury as well, Conner missed time in his only season as a starter in the NFL also consider he missed time the year prior recovering from cancer (probably shouldn't be weighted, but at least need to throw that out there)  Kamara hasn't missed any games yet in 2 years and has been a stud both years.  

Roster construction:

With Conner I could easily employ a no RB strategy in the 1st 4 rounds and ideally end up with a roster looking like (OBJ/Jones/Thomas/Hill, Diggs/J.Gordon/Moore)  Round out my RB's with Conner + Carson/White/Duke Johnson/ Josh Jacobs or something else.

With Kamara I would be a bit more balanced if not heavy RB: Kamara+ Gurley/OBJ/Jones/Thomas, 2&3: Kerryon Johnson/Fournette,Diggs/Moore/J.Gordon 5&6: Carson/Boyd/Landry/Williams

My best judgement is I will be deeper and more balanced with Conner as my keeper, but I think I have a higher ceiling but more risk with Kamara.  

You certainly wouldn't be crazy to keep Kamara.  That's what I would do.

I don't have any more to add than what you said.  Either strategy is a viable strategy.  I like the one that has Kamara on my team.

jmble said:

You certainly wouldn't be crazy to keep Kamara.  That's what I would do.

I don't have any more to add than what you said.  Either strategy is a viable strategy.  I like the one that has Kamara on my team.

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Thank you.  I appreciate your input.  

I easily keep Kamara over Conner.  Kamara at 1.12 is awesome value and is the simple choice to me.  With only one keeper I generally treat it like a redraft and keep the best player.  That is Kamara. 

Gally said:

I easily keep Kamara over Conner.  Kamara at 1.12 is awesome value and is the simple choice to me.  With only one keeper I generally treat it like a redraft and keep the best player.  That is Kamara. 

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Alright, this is making me feel better about my feelings every response.  Thank you for your time and input.

I say connor anyways.   You can pair him with two really good players at 1.12/2.1.   Without mocking it out a couple times I see a stronger team with keeping connor, no reason why he couldn't be right there with Kamara at year end.

So what happens next year? Can you keep Kamara again? Does Conner cost you a 5th next year. Important points to know.

Warhogs said:

So what happens next year? Can you keep Kamara again? Does Conner cost you a 5th next year. Important points to know.

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Fair point.  I can keep Kamara again next year if I want.  Conner would cost a 5th rounder next year though.

mozzy84 said:

I say connor anyways.   You can pair him with two really good players at 1.12/2.1.   Without mocking it out a couple times I see a stronger team with keeping connor, no reason why he couldn't be right there with Kamara at year end.

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You are the lone dissenter so far!  I appreciate the input on that.  Makes the decision tougher but at the end of the day I am in a pretty good position either way.  Thanks for your time

Let's look at a few key items and I'm sorry if I'm getting too analytical. 

I guess you would need to first determine if this is a league you plan to stay with for years, then what you would like your teams to look like in the future.  Then look at the teams they both play for.

Both RBs are young, but play with an old QB.  What will happen to either team when Big Ben and Brees retire. Brees signed a 2 year extension and there are always rumors or rumblings each year that Big Ben is thinking about retiring.  What do their defenses and offensive lines look like, will they be throwing the ball more cause they will be playing from behind.  Something very import to consider is the teams in their conferences.....

Connor is going to have to run against what some are considering the best D in the Ravens, twice.  Add to that the fact that the Browns D has greatly improved.  Then they have to worry about other tough D's they play in the Rams, Patriots, and Chargers.........Never mind that the Rams and Patriots are high scoring teams. And how much witl Samuels factor into the rotation

Looking at the Saints....they have to face the following tough Ds, Rams, Cowboys Bears, and Jags....some might also consider the texans having a good D....still that means 5 games against tough Ds compared to Connor having 7 games against tough d's

Saints have 8 home games indoor, and no real games in cold weather this entire year (Tennessee in Dec might be the only game).  Don't need to mention that won;t be the case for the Steelers

By now you should deduce I would say Kamara

Real toss up for me. Conner is a great value but Kamara is a top 5 pick at the end of round 1. You really can't go wrong either way. I guess you could try to guess what would be there at 12 and say would you rather have Conner and that guy or Kamara and whatever you can get in round 6?

Nuttz4Football said:

Let's look at a few key items and I'm sorry if I'm getting too analytical. 

I guess you would need to first determine if this is a league you plan to stay with for years, then what you would like your teams to look like in the future.  Then look at the teams they both play for.

Both RBs are young, but play with an old QB.  What will happen to either team when Big Ben and Brees retire. Brees signed a 2 year extension and there are always rumors or rumblings each year that Big Ben is thinking about retiring.  What do their defenses and offensive lines look like, will they be throwing the ball more cause they will be playing from behind.  Something very import to consider is the teams in their conferences.....

Connor is going to have to run against what some are considering the best D in the Ravens, twice.  Add to that the fact that the Browns D has greatly improved.  Then they have to worry about other tough D's they play in the Rams, Patriots, and Chargers.........Never mind that the Rams and Patriots are high scoring teams. And how much witl Samuels factor into the rotation

Looking at the Saints....they have to face the following tough Ds, Rams, Cowboys Bears, and Jags....some might also consider the texans having a good D....still that means 5 games against tough Ds compared to Connor having 7 games against tough d's

Saints have 8 home games indoor, and no real games in cold weather this entire year (Tennessee in Dec might be the only game).  Don't need to mention that won;t be the case for the Steelers

By now you should deduce I would say Kamara

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I love your take, it is an angle I haven't considered yet.  I think this just made my mind up.  Thank you for your input

I am keeping Kamara, as Gally said, treat is as a redraft.  Kamara is going 3rd or 4th.  So, getting him at 12... to me, a no brainer.