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What 12-24 ranked RB(s) have a legit shot at top cracking the 10 & why? Also, pick 1 bust. (1 Viewer)

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Topic title says it all. I’ve already drafted all my teams, but thought it was an interesting topic. We talk a lot about the elites, and there’s a topic about lottery tickets, but those RB2s never seem to get any love. 

Every year there are several RBs who elevate their game to top 10. 

PPR scoring - who’s it going to be this year?  Or will it be someone outside of the current 12-24 mix? 

Lets hear it, and why you believe so. 

Bonus: pick from the list to “bust” (finish outside top 24)

Here are Dodds RBs #13- 24:

13. Aaron Jones

14 Kerryon Johnson

15. Fournette

16. Freeman 

17. Mack

18. Carson

19. Jacobs 

20. Henry

21. Eckeler

22. Michele

23. Lindsey

24. Duke Johnson

25-36. ? 

 
I think that, from that list, Fournette has the best shot at cracking the top 10. Think he (and the team in general) has something to prove this year; Foles makes them much better than Bortles ever could; Fournette has no competition for carries and he is the unquestioned goal-line back in Jax. Plus, they say he is going to catch passes this year as well. 

Bust-- Devonta Freeman. He is simply made of glass. 

 
I’m going with RB18, Chris Carson

Seattle wants to run the ball - a lot.

Carson has reportedly run circles around Penny in camp, and Carroll is talking about ~50 receptions for him. 

That could easily spell a top 5 season for Chris Carson

I’m also going to predict David Montgomery (RB29!) is going to win a lot of folks their leagues this year. The Bears are built to win now. They send Howard packing, and have talked about reducing Cohen’s role to keep him effective as a gadget player. Bears homers I know are super high on him, and the Bears are sounding equally high on him. I’m not seeing Davis as a threat for touches and that means Montgomery is in line for 220-Ish carries, 30-Ish receptions? He’s reportedly a capable receiver as well. And from what I’ve heard he’s also a capable GL/short yardage RB. I think RB29 is way underrating him / overrating his backfield competition. And with the Bears D keeping them in games, and Trubisky potentially developing further, Montgomery will crack the top 10 by season’s end. 

Bust: I’m torn between KJohnson & Lindsey. I’m not sure either stay top 24-worthy. They should both be flex-relevant, but I’m not feeling a big season from either due to role or circumstances. 

 
K. Johnson: No competition for touches plus should have a strong role in the passing game.  

Bonus:  Mark Ingram breaks top 12.  This team will run run run.  Ingram strong enough in the pass game to not have to come off the field.  Dixon likely to get cut.  Edwards isn't any thing special and Hill hasn't earned his role yet.  

Bust, a whole bunch:

Lindsay finishes just outside as Freeman gets a little more run.

Duke Johnson, will be a strong flex option but I see Houston going out and getting more help.  Johnson has only had like 4 games of 10+ carries and not sure he'll be able to hold up.

Ekeler:  Will be okay on a per game basis but Gordon will likely report by week 10 and retake the starting role.  Tough to finish in top 24 if you're not going to be the man for 6 games.

Michel:  Knees add injury risk.  White takes most of passing game work and is a capable runner.  Won't be a huge bust, but will finish outside top 24. 

 
I’ve made big bets on Fournette/Carson...the reasons stated above apply along with...

Fournette - I think he realized how close to career suicide he came.  Talent has always been there...if he’s got his head on straight, I could see a Top 5 season (along with avoiding injury).

Carson - If there is one guy I think the fantasy community has missed on...its Carson.  He’s finally getting some draft respect, but I think he’s been for the most part overlooked.

 
I like Carson based on what we've already seen from him and Penny not challenging him.  I also like Michel a lot....once again, that division is hot garbage, and with favorable game scripts, and the tendency for NE to want to run anyway, I see Michel as a TD machine.

Bust is Fournette......I will never draft him again, and if he goes off, well good for him!  Dude is fools gold.

 
I like Derrick Henry. The titans will lean on him, and I think he gets the lions share of the work. They will continue to use him as they did late last year when he went off. 

Honerable mention to marlon Mack. If the colts pass 10% less, then they have to run more, right? 

I’ll avoid Josh Jacobs and the raider offense altogether. I just don’t want to take that risk that it all implodes with solid talent to choose from at several positions. 

 
Carson, Freeman - both could and I think both will, though most believe in the former and few believe in the latter.

Fournette, Johnson, Jacobs, Henry - one could but I don't think any will.

 
It’s amazing how many of the same names are on boom & bust lists. One of the reasons I love this game, really. 

 
What’s amazing is I bet a bunch of guys still pass on Chris Carson. 
12 teams did 3x and 4 of them did 4x in my IDP draft on Sunday. 

I didn’t really pass on him - I was targeting him as my RB1 while going WR/WR/WR from the 8-spot.  :pickle:

5 rounds later the dude who took Penny talked tall trash. I kinda have the feeling I’ll be reminding him of that at some point this year. ;)  

 
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Ingram and Carson boom.  L Murray doesn't end up top 10 but does end up top 25, which is a boom for where he's taken.

Freeman gets hurt, Henry busts along with all of Tenn, mack and the colts bust

 
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Some of the RB2+ candidates I like in redraft formats this year:

Mark Ingram - The Ravens love these gritty runners and got great production out of Lewis, Rice, and McGahee. They've had a revolving door of scrubs the last few years, but now that they have a true starting caliber RB again, I would expect a good season. Ingram is not quite an elite back, but he's good enough to command 250-300 carries and could have surprisingly good reception numbers given the lack of a Kamara/Sproles to vulture those opportunities. People view him as a committee back because of how he was used in New Orleans, but I think he'll be the clear workhorse on this team.

Josh Jacobs - I'm generally bullish on high-end rookie RB talent in redraft because the uncertainty factor tends to suppress their market price even if they have great talent and opportunity. Jacobs is a complete three down back who can amass respectable rushing totals and pad his stats with a lot of catches. He should be the clear #1 option in Oakland. The last time Jon Gruden had a rookie RB of this caliber, he fed him 290 carries in 14 games. Cadillac Williams won Rookie of the Year that season and Jacobs has to be a strong contender for the same honors this year.

Kenyan Drake - A PPR option whose talent is very underrated. When he gets touches, he makes plays. The question is whether or not the workload will be enough to make him reliable. His body type and play style may not be suited to full-time duty, so the ceiling to really go nuclear and win you a title may not be there. You have to buckle up and prepare for a bumpy ride with Drake on your roster because you never know what you're going to get in a given week, but last season he finished as RB14 in PPR formats and he is typically much cheaper than that in drafts. I think he is a better player than Ballage/etc, so I think he'll still have a big role this season.

Guice is another one with a big ceiling if you can afford to be patient.

There are some deeper flyers who I also like, but most of those guys will need an injury to become relevant.

 
Regarding Carson:

Having worked in the Fantasy industry for many years, Smith has contributed to virtually every meaningful Fantasy publication and website. FantasyPros.com named him the Most Accurate Expert for the 2012 NFL season. If there's anyone who know a player's value entering the season, it's him. Now he's found six players who have seen their stock go up, and six that have gone down in the preseason. 

We can tell you Smith says Seattle running back Chris Carson is rising as he's strengthened his grip on the starting running back job for the Seahawks this preseason. 

"Throughout the offseason, there was a lot of speculation that the Seahawks would move towards more of a 50/50 committee backfield with Carson and Rashaad Penny, but it now appears that Carson is unquestionably the lead back," Smith said. "Not only that, Pete Carroll said he'd like to see Carson catch about 50 passes, which would be a huge boost to his Fantasy value. Already a top-15 Fantasy running back last year with a limited role in the passing game, Carson has serious top-10 upside and is still a terrific bargain at his current ADP."
Was already top 15, + 30 receptions? Thats top 12 easily, and maybe top 5. 

https://www.sportsline.com/insiders/fantasy-football-2019-stock-report-chris-carson-among-risers/
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Topic title says it all. I’ve already drafted all my teams, but thought it was an interesting topic. We talk a lot about the elites, and there’s a topic about lottery tickets, but those RB2s never seem to get any love. 

Every year there are several RBs who elevate their game to top 10. 

PPR scoring - who’s it going to be this year?  Or will it be someone outside of the current 12-24 mix? 

Lets hear it, and why you believe so. 

Bonus: pick from the list to “bust” (finish outside top 24)

Here are Dodds RBs #13- 24:

13. Aaron Jones- target potential, can play in any gamescript, high TD potential if Aaron Rogers is back to form

14 Kerryon Johnson- run heavy offense with good o-line, solid D, very talented and is the best pass catcher in the backfield 

15. Fournette- rare 3 down back (whether it suits him or not) on a team that wants to make him the centerpiece, we saw him perform at a top 10 level 2 years ago

16. Freeman- 3 down skill set on explosive offense, has been top 10 before

18. Carson- Was just a hair out of the top 10 in ppg last year, now with a higher reception ceiling with the backfield going from 3 to 2

19. Jacobs - Fewer backs have such a clear path to 250 touches

20. Henry- The tale of 2 seasons. His first 8 games prorate to 180 carries for 600/4. His last 8 games prorate to 250 for 1500/20. IMO, the truth is much more in those first 8 games with a team that struggles to move the ball and a RB that doesn't catch passes he is at too big of a risk to now score many TDs and get game-scripted out. 

22. Michel Tremendous TD upside
I think all of the bolded have a legit chance at top 10. Henry screams bust to me. 

 
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Is it really easy though? Cause tomorrow night I am going to have decide between him, Kerryon, Damien, and Jones. And I am pulling my hair out over this...
I don't think it's easy. If we look at the big picture, Carson is still a pretty weak RB prospect and while Penny has been uninspiring this summer, he still poses a major threat to Carson. 

 
I don't think it's easy. If we look at the big picture, Carson is still a pretty weak RB prospect and while Penny has been uninspiring this summer, he still poses a major threat to Carson. 
That's where I'm coming from, too. You can make a case for or against any of these guys, really. I think you just need to go with your gut in the end. The problem is my gut keeps telling me a million different things. 

 
Snorkelson said:
What’s amazing is I bet a bunch of guys still pass on Chris Carson. 
Got him in a dynasty start up as rb24. Twenty-four!!!!! 

Absolutely bonkers. 

Rbs drafted ahead of him: Drake, Ingram, Coleman, Henderson, Guice, Sanders, Jacobs, Aaron Jones... kind of laughable IMO.

I was thrilled. 

 
I don't think it's easy. If we look at the big picture, Carson is still a pretty weak RB prospect and while Penny has been uninspiring this summer, he still poses a major threat to Carson. 


That's where I'm coming from, too. You can make a case for or against any of these guys, really. I think you just need to go with your gut in the end. The problem is my gut keeps telling me a million different things. 
Penny has been awful this preseason and it sounds like Carson is comfortably in the driver's seat. If he stays healthy, sure Penny should see some action, but unless Carson is hurt it's his backfield. 

For redraft 2019 I'd have a hard time deciding between Carson and Jones, as. oth have injury concerns, but Seattle is very run heavy and wants to use Carson more in the passing game. 

 
EBF said:
Josh Jacobs - I'm generally bullish on high-end rookie RB talent in redraft because the uncertainty factor tends to suppress their market price even if they have great talent and opportunity. Jacobs is a complete three down back who can amass respectable rushing totals and pad his stats with a lot of catches. He should be the clear #1 option in Oakland. The last time Jon Gruden had a rookie RB of this caliber, he fed him 290 carries in 14 games. Cadillac Williams won Rookie of the Year that season and Jacobs has to be a strong contender for the same honors this year.
I'm skeptical to take the "Gruden history" with a large grain of salt.  That was the same argument people were making last year for why Cooper was supposed to skyrocket as fantasy WR because Gruden always heavily featured a single WR on his teams.

 
Got him in a dynasty start up as rb24. Twenty-four!!!!! 

Absolutely bonkers. 

Rbs drafted ahead of him: Drake, Ingram, Coleman, Henderson, Guice, Sanders, Jacobs, Aaron Jones... kind of laughable IMO.

I was thrilled. 
Are you suggesting he should clearly go ahead of all those RBs? I can see him going over Ingram and Drake and possibly Guice, but probably not the others. 

 
Are you suggesting he should clearly go ahead of all those RBs? I can see him going over Ingram and Drake and possibly Guice, but probably not the others. 
In a dynasty start up, possibly.

I'm not fond of Jacobs or Sanders, but I suppose if I had 1.1 I wouldn't trade it for Carson alone. I would trade Sanders for Carson in a heartbeat. As a Henderson fanboy and owner I would trade Henderson for Carson easily. I offered the Carson owner in my league Guice for him straight up. Unfortunately he is trying to win it all this year and Guice is a long play wheras Carson can win you your league now. Aaron Jones won't be as valuable next year as he is now IMO. Coleman is a sneezing fit away from a tweaked knee.

So yes, I would say most of those guys aside from Jacobs, who is worth more but I certainly prefer Carson myself. The biggest issue with Carson has been he hasn't stayed healthy. But he is in the most run-happy offense in the league who has just stated they want to throw to him more. Whats not to like? Penny? I could certainly be in the minority on this. There may be some out there holding out hope for Penny. IMO Carson is criminally undervalued and he has league winning potential if you are going to wait on drafting your RB2.

 
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How many receptions can we expect from Carson if they plan on throwing to him “more”? Can he get 40-45 grabs? Not talking about coach speak. Is it in this guy’s repertoire to catch 50 passes?

 
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I'll agree with the Carson love here. I think 1500 yards and 12 TD's is certainly in his range of outcomes. He's an underrated pass catcher in my opinion too.

If Gordon goes the Bell route, I think Ekeler can absolutely be an RB1 in PPR. I think they'll play more to his strengths, and he could finish with 80+ catches if he starts all season. 

Even before Luck retired, I was never a Mack fan. I just don't think he's much better than their other RB's, he was just further along. I think that could evolve into a 3-man RBBC, and now the pie they are taking pieces from is a lot smaller. Mack is not a top-25 RB for me.

 
I think it’s funny that this has become the Chris Carson love thread. Not that I don’t appreciate the hype, it’s turned me and my mind around.

That said, how does only one person mention Aaron Jones? I know he’s low hanging fruit because he’s 13 but still. Talent? Check, he has played great every time given the chance and Rodgers praises him at every turn. Opportunity? Check, there’s no doubt he’s the 1A, if not the 1 all alone, and they have a stronger offensive mind at the helm (don’t give me that junk about Lefleur not running enough, McCarthy’s offense was broken so almost anything would be an improvement). Health? That’s the question, he’s sprained his MCL 3 times and has had 2 hamstrings strains in 2 years. It is an extremely valid concern but if we’re talking about potential, he has top 5 written all over him if they can manage his health.

Freeman is another who could go top 10. I’m not sure that he is who he once was but playing with Koetter as the OC, things could be looking up. I hated Sarkisian for that team. His talent may not be all there anymore but the opportunity playing with that offense could be big

 
I think it’s funny that this has become the Chris Carson love thread. Not that I don’t appreciate the hype, it’s turned me and my mind around.

That said, how does only one person mention Aaron Jones? I know he’s low hanging fruit because he’s 13 but still. Talent? Check, he has played great every time given the chance and Rodgers praises him at every turn. Opportunity? Check, there’s no doubt he’s the 1A, if not the 1 all alone, and they have a stronger offensive mind at the helm (don’t give me that junk about Lefleur not running enough, McCarthy’s offense was broken so almost anything would be an improvement). Health? That’s the question, he’s sprained his MCL 3 times and has had 2 hamstrings strains in 2 years. It is an extremely valid concern but if we’re talking about potential, he has top 5 written all over him if they can manage his health.
Honest question, if managing his health means RBBC or limiting his workload, is he still top 5? top 10?

I agree, he has big potential as well. GB has come out as well saying they want to use their RBs (Jones) more in the passing game. This is something missing from GB over the last few years. It's a very similar situation as Carson, without the former 1st round pick looming behind him. I guess, for me, I am more concerned about his health. Also, LaFleur stating that he thinks Jones is best when in RBBC concerns me.

Jones would be my 2nd choice off this list, however I still think in dynasty he's a pretty strong sell this season and I don't see him staying healthy all year. Carson is a concern as well, which I will gladly admit. There are reasons these guys have such high celings/potential yet they are in the RB2 discussion; many of them can't stay healthy to produce a RB1 season

 
I'm skeptical to take the "Gruden history" with a large grain of salt.  That was the same argument people were making last year for why Cooper was supposed to skyrocket as fantasy WR because Gruden always heavily featured a single WR on his teams.
Assume Gruden is a neutral and I still like Jacobs at his ADP. Their other backs are JAGs and he's a first round talent with a three down skill set. If you can get him as your RB2 then it's a good value pick because he should have a high floor and a high ceiling.

 
Honest question, if managing his health means RBBC or limiting his workload, is he still top 5? top 10?

I agree, he has big potential as well. GB has come out as well saying they want to use their RBs (Jones) more in the passing game. This is something missing from GB over the last few years. It's a very similar situation as Carson, without the former 1st round pick looming behind him. I guess, for me, I am more concerned about his health. Also, LaFleur stating that he thinks Jones is best when in RBBC concerns me.

Jones would be my 2nd choice off this list, however I still think in dynasty he's a pretty strong sell this season and I don't see him staying healthy all year. Carson is a concern as well, which I will gladly admit. There are reasons these guys have such high celings/potential yet they are in the RB2 discussion; many of them can't stay healthy to produce a RB1 season
I thought we were speaking strictly finish for this year. I agree, he may be a sell in dynasty. Right now you could land 75 cents for him but if he gets injured again, come February he will only get you 25 cents. Even if he goes top 5, the history will plague him and he’ll only jump to a full dollar. So yeah, the reward could be big this year but for dynasty purposes, I can see my way to the conclusion that the juice won’t be worth the squeeze.

As for the RBBC, it works for Kamara, it worked for Cohen last year, it worked for Freeman and Coleman a few years ago. Obviously those are outliers but Jones’ talent is outlier level, he’s performed incredibly well and has never had/needed more than 20 touches.

Carson’s injury history doesn’t seem particularly concerning to me. Broken ankle, dislocated finger, knee scope, those aren’t chronic issues. The knee could become that but it remains to be seen. If there are two teams in the league that I could see starting a late round incumbent RB over a high draft pick, it’s the Seahawks and the Pats so I could see him stick as starter

 
Carson and Freeman for top 12.  Henry is the easiest answer as the coming bust, every year some reserve back does well at the end of the season for a handful of games then gets taken way to high the next year.  Alex Collins last year, Zac Stacy one year, etc.  People always chase that guy and every time he burns you, that's going to be Henry this year. 

 
i'll go beyond the 24 and take Mark Ingram. Guy looked well when he played last year, and his skills fit the Baltimore offense well. i don't think they will be in a ton of shoot-outs, so makes sense he gets plenty of carries with big holes in the line. 

 
i'll go beyond the 24 and take Mark Ingram. Guy looked well when he played last year, and his skills fit the Baltimore offense well. i don't think they will be in a ton of shoot-outs, so makes sense he gets plenty of carries with big holes in the line. 
He was my RB2 in my dynasty league until I traded for Duke Johnson. I’m very high on Ingram. I’ve had him for years. Love the guy. 

 
About twice as much as they have

MS says that he wants about 50 targets for Carson. So yeah, I'd say 40 is within reach if he keeps with his current catch rate
The Seahawks are always so rosey with what they expect for the season though. I don't usually buy much of the fluff they put out. 

Get a fricken analytics department and then listen to them, Seattle.  Doing the projections for Seattle is so painful, pairing Wilson's efficiency with his lack of volume and lamenting what could be.. 😓

 
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Any of them can be great if they stay healthy. All of them are injury risks, not that most RBs aren’t. 

So who’s most likely to stay healthy?  Henry? 

I also like Montgomery because he’s not yet an injury risk, he just needs to win the touches.  

 

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