Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Hot Sauce Guy

What 12-24 ranked RB(s) have a legit shot at top cracking the 10 & why? Also, pick 1 bust.

Recommended Posts

Any of them can be great if they stay healthy. All of them are injury risks, not that most RBs aren’t. 

So who’s most likely to stay healthy?  Henry? 

I also like Montgomery because he’s not yet an injury risk, he just needs to win the touches.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

The Seahawks are always so rosey with what they expect for the season though. I don't usually buy much of the fluff they put out.

Right. It usually goes like this:

REPORTER: "How is Amara Darboh doing in practice?"

COACH CARROLL: "Fantastic. We couldn't be happier. He's had a really terrific camp and we know we can count on him."

THE NEXT DAY: Seahawks waive WR Amara Darboh.

I'm not sure the coach speak from SEA usually means much.

Personally, I have no investment in any SEA RBs in any league. I don't have a strong opinion on Carson either way, but I always get a little uneasy about investing high draft picks on a RB who may not even be the most talented guy on his roster, and even though Penny seems pretty "meh" so far, his presence there would still make me a little uneasy. I think it's a situation where you'd definitely want to cover yourself and make sure you get your handcuff.

I have similar feelings about the likes of Damien Williams and Duke Johnson. You are drafting the opportunity as much as the player, so you better have a quick trigger finger about grabbing the backups.

  • Like 1
  • Laughing 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, EBF said:

Right. It usually goes like this:

REPORTER: "How is Amara Darboh doing in practice?"

COACH CARROLL: "Fantastic. We couldn't be happier. He's had a really terrific camp and we know we can count on him."

THE NEXT DAY: Seahawks waive WR Amara Darboh.

I'm not sure the coach speak from SEA usually means much.

Personally, I have no investment in any SEA RBs in any league. I don't have a strong opinion on Carson either way, but I always get a little uneasy about investing high draft picks on a RB who may not even be the most talented guy on his roster, and even though Penny seems pretty "meh" so far, his presence there would still make me a little uneasy. I think it's a situation where you'd definitely want to cover yourself and make sure you get your handcuff.

I have similar feelings about the likes of Damien Williams and Duke Johnson. You are drafting the opportunity as much as the player, so you better have a quick trigger finger about grabbing the backups.

You’re talking about 4th & 5th round picks though.

so their risk is easily calculated into their value. 

And if they hit. They’re league winners. 

Play it safe with your draft & be mediocre. Hit home runs with upside players & 🏆 

you're talking about carson like he’s a 1st round pick. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

My bust will be Sony Michel

What from Dan?   Lots of dings? Injured? Pats falter offensively or dont run it as much? 3or4 headed monster at RB?  He just under performs and his 4.5 per drops off?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, EBF said:

Personally, I have no investment in any SEA RBs in any league. I don't have a strong opinion on Carson either way, but I always get a little uneasy about investing high draft picks on a RB who may not even be the most talented guy on his roster, and even though Penny seems pretty "meh" so far, his presence there would still make me a little uneasy. I think it's a situation where you'd definitely want to cover yourself and make sure you get your handcuff.

My memory recollection is that Justice Hill outplayed Carson, effectively took the starting RB at Oklahoma State... as freshman.  This says a lot on Carson (and so does on Hill).   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can I pick Derrick Henry as both boom and bust?

BOOM

He’s burned us owners before, and the start of last season was horrid.  But he faced some stout Ds, and the last half of the season was solid RB1 scoring, with a monstrous last 3 weeks.

Titans offense is upgraded - Lewan and Saffold are arguably the best left side in the NFL, a healthy Walker and two able WRs in Humphries and AJ Brown should help Mariota keep Ds honest, and there is no seemingly change in their new OC’s commitment to run Henry heavily.

Out of all these backs listed, I think Henry has the chance to outshine his ADP the most and deliver a Top 10 RB1 performance.

BUST

Mariota has shown nothing that makes me comfortable that despite his upgraded O, he can capitalize, stay healthy, and help this offense click.

Teams will like stack boxes and blitz to pressure, hit, and discombobulate Mariota, keying on the run to force Mariota to beat them with rushed throws.

And we’ve seen the same script from Henry - talented but wildly uneven and unpredictable performance that spells overall mediocrity. So far the starting 1s on O line have been a sieve in preseason, which doesn’t help keep Mariota calm and collected, or give Henry the lanes he needs. Titans, like last year, will be facing gamescript issues all year that limit Henry’s touches and opportunity. He certainly ain’t catching passes in this system.

 

We will see which Henry emerges. I’ve placed a bet on him by drafting him in my main money league, but I can’t say I’m comfortable with it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As soon as I saw this I knew more than half would prob say Chris Carson. Thus, it won’t be him. I say Fournette pretty handily makes the top 10. 

Oh and bust def Henry. What did he do last year outside of those two monster games? I hope I’m wrong because I really want to see him be the bellcow but I’ve been saying it for years now. 

Edited by Elevencents

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

My bust will be Sony Michel

He’s looked so so so good. I’m skeptical. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Elevencents said:

As soon as I saw this I knew more than half would prob say Chris Carson. Thus, it won’t be him. I say Fournette pretty handily makes the top 10. 

Oh and bust def Henry. What did he do last year outside of those two monster games? I hope I’m wrong because I really want to see him be the bellcow but I’ve been saying it for years now. 

A change in offensive philosophy can alter a guys year pretty easily. Towards the end of the year they gave Henry the majority of the carries and he exploded. Let’s not overlook his last 2 games as well, where he had very decent totals. Look at the game logs for MIN- Thielen was unstoppable, halfway thru the year the offense changes and Thielen disappears. Look at Cleveland and the turnaround after they changed their OC halfway thru the year. I think he gets a big uptick from the 215 carries he had last year (40% of which came weeks 14-17.) Then go back and look at dion Lewis’ game log, and you’ll see the same correlation- he got lots of carries until the end of the season then they virtually ignored him in favor of Henry.  I expect more of that game plan. It’s a lot different than what’s his face having 400 yds against the Lions in week 17 and getting a big contract in Seattle the next year. It’s a lot different than CJ Anderson coming in with fresh legs at the end of the season and running all over everything. These were changes in philosophy, not some scrub getting a chance vs a gassed defense with nothing to play for. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Choke said:

What from Dan?   Lots of dings? Injured? Pats falter offensively or dont run it as much? 3or4 headed monster at RB?  He just under performs and his 4.5 per drops off?

injured

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Elevencents said:

As soon as I saw this I knew more than half would prob say Chris Carson. Thus, it won’t be him. I say Fournette pretty handily makes the top 10. 

Oh and bust def Henry. What did he do last year outside of those two monster games? I hope I’m wrong because I really want to see him be the bellcow but I’ve been saying it for years now. 

Have we ever seen a veteran who started 16 games have his value swung so hard by 2 games? He’s going about 35th overall now. Had those 2 games not happened, my guess he would be around 90 with Jordan Howard.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Why - Carson a 4th round player. Kerryon, Damian & AJones are 3rd rounders. 

I had Carson targeted for Round 4, but with way my draft broke, and they way the draft was breaking generally, I was going to “reach” in Round 3 at 3.10 - he went at 3.07 however. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm in 2 dynasty's and 1 redraft, I have heavily invested in these RB's on at least 2 of 3 of my teams.

Fournette- bought for my 1.11 last year when he was out injured and so far he is doing all the right things we could ask for

Freeman- also bought for my 1.8 and Foreman in the off season for a win now team that needed another RB. His value has gradually risen since early in the off season

A. Jones- a very quite off season, he seems to be lying in the weeds compared to others on this list

Hunt & Guice- willing to wait until 2020 for these 2 to hopefully be considered RB1/2 going into the start of the season

Penny- Seattle run, run, run offense- Penny has stand alone value with enough volume as the other RB in this run heavy offense and  RB1 potential if the often injured Carson sits out at some point

  • Thinking 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let's talk about another guy...

Fournette... many here have him a bust. However, one of the two cheat codes for fantasy football is to get a rb who is bound to see high volumes in the passing game. 

Fournette has limited competition for carries and they are talking about wanting to get him more involved in the passing game. 

I'm not a fan of his health and possible work ethic issues, but the opportunity is there and his price is pretty low considering most people see him as a bust for this season

Edited by Dr. Dan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

for carson to take the next step to top 10 he needs to catch the ball more. anything pete carroll says needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

health is the only thing preventing freeman from a top 10 season as the unquestioned lead back in a great offense. and at age 27 im more than willing to roll the dice on him bouncing back this year.

jacobs is also very intriguing if he is indeed a 3 down back

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s funny people are worried about Gurley’s knee but ignore Michel’s? I think his knee is worse but if they can manage his workload properly, he should get be top 10. 

Fournette, Penny, and to a lesser extent Henry are the only other real talent on this thread that have a chance. The others mentioned are average or below and will likely forgotten as better prospects come.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Have we ever seen a veteran who started 16 games have his value swung so hard by 2 games? He’s going about 35th overall now. Had those 2 games not happened, my guess he would be around 90 with Jordan Howard.

Exactly. I get it. I have had him every year because I know the talent is there. He’s a monster. But it’s like ramming your head into the wall over and over. Every week you cross your fingers and it’s the same ####. I ended up keeping him again just because I had no other options essentially. And here I am again anxiously hopeful. At least there is a change with the coaching staff so that gives me a small flicker of hope. But watching him run last year it looked like he would just run into the backs of his linemen and go down. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Let's talk about another guy...

Fournette... many here have him a bust. However, one of the two cheat codes for fantasy football is to get a rb who is bound to see high volumes in the passing game. 

Fournette has limited competition for carries and they are talking about wanting to get him more involved in the passing game. 

I'm not a fan of his health and possible work ethic issues, but the opportunity is there and his price is pretty low considering most people see him as a bust for this season

I like him based on what you said but would have to take him early 2nd. I'm very tempted but if he's paired with a fragile Cook which is realistic where I'm at that could be injury nightmare. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, EBF said:

Some of the RB2+ candidates I like in redraft formats this year:

Mark Ingram - The Ravens love these gritty runners and got great production out of Lewis, Rice, and McGahee. They've had a revolving door of scrubs the last few years, but now that they have a true starting caliber RB again, I would expect a good season. Ingram is not quite an elite back, but he's good enough to command 250-300 carries and could have surprisingly good reception numbers given the lack of a Kamara/Sproles to vulture those opportunities. People view him as a committee back because of how he was used in New Orleans, but I think he'll be the clear workhorse on this team.

Josh Jacobs - I'm generally bullish on high-end rookie RB talent in redraft because the uncertainty factor tends to suppress their market price even if they have great talent and opportunity. Jacobs is a complete three down back who can amass respectable rushing totals and pad his stats with a lot of catches. He should be the clear #1 option in Oakland. The last time Jon Gruden had a rookie RB of this caliber, he fed him 290 carries in 14 games. Cadillac Williams won Rookie of the Year that season and Jacobs has to be a strong contender for the same honors this year.

Kenyan Drake - A PPR option whose talent is very underrated. When he gets touches, he makes plays. The question is whether or not the workload will be enough to make him reliable. His body type and play style may not be suited to full-time duty, so the ceiling to really go nuclear and win you a title may not be there. You have to buckle up and prepare for a bumpy ride with Drake on your roster because you never know what you're going to get in a given week, but last season he finished as RB14 in PPR formats and he is typically much cheaper than that in drafts. I think he is a better player than Ballage/etc, so I think he'll still have a big role this season.

Guice is another one with a big ceiling if you can afford to be patient.

There are some deeper flyers who I also like, but most of those guys will need an injury to become relevant.

I started to reply to the OP, but then I read EBF. He said exactly what I would have, but better.

Guice is a guy I almost wish they'd put on PUP to start the season so I could have drafted-and-IR-stashed him in every league. As it was I couldn't afford to burn a spot in shorter-bench leagues, but if there's one guy in the mid-rounds that I'd wager on to be this year's Nick Chubb, it's Guice and it's not close.

I'm not terribly surprised there's so much love for Carson, but I'm fading him at ADP. Yes, he certainly could make the top 10 on volume alone, but so many guys in that same range have more in the way of proven production, talent, or both.

Edited by Mr. Irrelevant

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I had Carson targeted for Round 4, but with way my draft broke, and they way the draft was breaking generally, I was going to “reach” in Round 3 at 3.10 - he went at 3.07 however. 

Sounds like people are starting to believe. 

I saw this recent “my bad. Carson not a bust” article from a prominent fantasy writer that may explain the sudden rise in ADP: 

Jamie Eisenberg spent the better part of the offseason and into training camp trashing Carson, writing for web & print mags that he’d be a bust. Check out the prelude to this column. Quite the mea culpa 

 https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/2019-fantasy-football-draft-prep-12-busts-who-could-spoil-your-season/

Quote

I'm going to start this busts column by offering an apology to Chris Carson. This also extends to any Fantasy managers who wanted to draft him prior to the past couple of weeks but avoided him because of me. 

I was wrong to call Carson a bust. I hope he will forgive me. 

I've written several versions of busts already this offseason on our site and in our Fantasy Football magazines. In most of those columns, I suggested Carson was a bust candidate and would struggle in 2019.

With Rashaad Penny expected to get more work, which should happen, as well as Carson having a minor procedure on his knee this offseason (he's fine), I expected him to get drafted too soon. I also thought he would struggle to replicate his performance from 2018 when he was the No. 15 PPR running back with 247 carries for 1,151 yards (4.7 yards per carry) and nine touchdowns, as well as 20 catches for 163 yards.

Carson should remain the lead back in Seattle, and he should get a bigger role in the passing game with Mike Davis gone. Penny's impact could be significant, but not enough to scare you from drafting Carson at his current Average Draft Position in Round 4. 

In non-PPR leagues, I can even support Carson being drafted in Round 3. I was wrong to doubt Carson, and he's no longer someone to consider as a bust.

 

this leaves David Montgomery as the last of the relatively unknown league-winners ;) 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I never picked a bust. I'm going to go with my heart and pick the player that I've found myself with zero shares of and zero interest.

Leonard Fournette. The offense sucks and will continue to suck. Nick Foles has waved his big hands and his even bigger... paycheck... and fooled people into thinking he is a starter level QB. Fournette has injury history and will likely be injured again. I am just staying far away. He may have some big games but I don't see him being anything more than what Lamar Miller has been in the last 2 years in Houston.

Also he burned me last year. I could've had Dalvin Cook, who was just as injured, but at least he did me the courtesy of not having me start him for 1 quarter of play

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I had Carson targeted for Round 4, but with way my draft broke, and they way the draft was breaking generally, I was going to “reach” in Round 3 at 3.10 - he went at 3.07 however. 

Carson is a mid 3rd round RB.  He's not getting to round 5 in any legit draft IMO.

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr

ETA: Sorry you said rd 4 not 5 my bad. 

Edited by Buck Bradcanon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll nominate Miles Sanders.  I think his situation is similar to David Montgomery.  Extremely talented, playoff caliber team, and his competition for touches (Howard) is kinda JAG.

If they give him the majority of the backfield touches, watch out.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Buck Bradcanon said:

Carson is a mid 3rd round RB.  He's not getting to round 5 in any legit draft IMO.

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr

 

4.05 in my 20+ year 12 team IDP league on Sunday. Pretty “legit” league IMO.

Lots of factors why - ADP/ranking & several articles saying he’d be a bust (one recently recanted with a mea culpa by a fantasy writer), flow of the draft, runs at positions...

it probably matters that we draft live in-person, where better values slide because no one is using draft software or staring at a laptop doing research the whole time. 

In this case a ton of RBs made it back to the 3/4 turn because the 1-6 teams largely went RB-heavy early & stacked up on WRs rounds 1-2, so they spent 3 chasing the tail-end of WR runs. 

Agree he won’t get to 5, but I never saw him that low all preseason. Nearly every mock i did had Carson in the 4th though. Sometimes as late as 4.08

his stock is rising but that doesn’t mean he’s not still a good value at the end of the 3rd. I think he has fewer questions than some of the backs being taken around him. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Buck Bradcanon said:

I'll nominate Miles Sanders.  I think his situation is similar to David Montgomery.  Extremely talented, playoff caliber team, and his competition for touches (Howard) is kinda JAG.

If they give him the majority of the backfield touches, watch out.

Jacobs and DM are the more obvious rookie picks but Sanders has some nice upside at his adp.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

4.05 in my 20+ year 12 team IDP league on Sunday. Pretty “legit” league IMO.

Lots of factors why - ADP/ranking & several articles saying he’d be a bust (one recently recanted with a mea culpa by a fantasy writer), flow of the draft, runs at positions...

it probably matters that we draft live in-person, where better values slide because no one is using draft software or staring at a laptop doing research the whole time. 

In this case a ton of RBs made it back to the 3/4 turn because the 1-6 teams largely went RB-heavy early & stacked up on WRs rounds 1-2, so they spent 3 chasing the tail-end of WR runs. 

Agree he won’t get to 5, but I never saw him that low all preseason. Nearly every mock i did had Carson in the 4th though. Sometimes as late as 4.08

his stock is rising but that doesn’t mean he’s not still a good value at the end of the 3rd. I think he has fewer questions than some of the backs being taken around him. 

Yeah that's why I said he's not getting to round 5.  Several upthread said Carson in rd 5.

Think we agree.. don't mean to split hairs.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Best chance to be top 12: 

Leonard Fournette

Kerryon Johnson

Chris Carson

Sony Michel

Philip Lindsay 

 

Best chance to bust: 

Derrick Henry

Aaron Jones

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

4.05 in my 20+ year 12 team IDP league on Sunday. Pretty “legit” league IMO.

Lots of factors why - ADP/ranking & several articles saying he’d be a bust (one recently recanted with a mea culpa by a fantasy writer), flow of the draft, runs at positions...

it probably matters that we draft live in-person, where better values slide because no one is using draft software or staring at a laptop doing research the whole time. 

In this case a ton of RBs made it back to the 3/4 turn because the 1-6 teams largely went RB-heavy early & stacked up on WRs rounds 1-2, so they spent 3 chasing the tail-end of WR runs. 

Agree he won’t get to 5, but I never saw him that low all preseason. Nearly every mock i did had Carson in the 4th though. Sometimes as late as 4.08

his stock is rising but that doesn’t mean he’s not still a good value at the end of the 3rd. I think he has fewer questions than some of the backs being taken around him. 

I took him at 3.02 in my 12 team 1/2 point PPR last night. Bit of a reach but I agree with most in this thread: He's got Top 5 RB1 potential this season and I liked him far more than other guys available at that slot.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Workhorse said:

I took him at 3.02 in my 12 team 1/2 point PPR last night. Bit of a reach but I agree with most in this thread: He's got Top 5 RB1 potential this season and I liked him far more than other guys available at that slot.

That’s the thing about drafting near the turn....it’s not really a reach. Your next pick is 4.11, so you know he’s not making it back to you. 

The only question is who you took him over since so much talent is on the board at 3.02

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That’s the thing about drafting near the turn....it’s not really a reach. Your next pick is 4.11, so you know he’s not making it back to you. 

The only question is who you took him over since so much talent is on the board at 3.02

Next few picks were:  Cooper, Godwin (!), Freeman, Henry, Thielen, Fournette, Mack (!!), Kittle

I liked Carson above all of those guys.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Workhorse said:

Next few picks were:  Cooper, Godwin (!), Freeman, Henry, Thielen, Fournette, Mack (!!), Kittle

I liked Carson above all of those guys.

Depending on format & who you took 1-2, I like Thielen a little more, but only because WRs drop off a cliff between 3.02 & 4.11 

but I think you got fine value in Carson. It’s earlier than I’d want him, but that’s why I wanted to draft from the 8-12 spots this year. 

Godwin seems like a reach. Especially with Thielen on the board. :o 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Godwin seems like a reach. Especially with Thielen on the board. :o 

Count me in on the Godwin express train.  I just think he has the perfect storm lined up in Tampa.  Obvious talent, a coach who loves the passing game, 160 targets opening up with Humphries and Djax gone, a stud WR on the other side to take coverage away, no running game to speak of and a crappy D to insure a lot of garbage time points.  

I wouldn't be surprised to see him out perform Theilen this year.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My Candidates (per FBG Redraft PPR)

  1. 19 Josh Jacobs - Has a chance to be the bellcow in Oakland. If the offense clicks on the passing side, Gruden is used to riding his RBs hard and features them a fair bit in the passing game as well. Jacobs has a chance to slide in the latter Top 10 if he can get enough passes thrown his way.
  2. 24 Phillip Lindsay - Kind of a forgotten player IMO. Has the job locked in Denver and I don't think Freeman's that much of a threat to him (in comparison to how people are reacting to say Carson/Penny or Michel/Harris). Good chance to hit 1,000+ rushing yards and could sneak into the 9th or 10th spot with a strong enough year.
  3. BUST 16 Aaron Jones - I'm just not sold on him. He's played 12 games in 2017/2018 and has a great 5.5 YPC but he's no Clinton Portis. As long as Aaron Rodgers is in Green Bay, I just don't think Jones can get enough carries or catches to be a legitimate candidate to crack the Top 10. Also LaFleur's already said that Jamaal Williams will get some action so there's a question around how much Jones gets touch wise per game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, efactor said:

Count me in on the Godwin express train.  I just think he has the perfect storm lined up in Tampa.  Obvious talent, a coach who loves the passing game, 160 targets opening up with Humphries and Djax gone, a stud WR on the other side to take coverage away, no running game to speak of and a crappy D to insure a lot of garbage time points.  

I wouldn't be surprised to see him out perform Theilen this year.  

And a terrible OL that might get Winston killed by week 4. 

So there’s that. :shrug:

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, DawnBTVS said:

 

  1. 24 Phillip Lindsay - Kind of a forgotten player IMO. Has the job locked in Denver and I don't think Freeman's that much of a threat to him (in comparison to how people are reacting to say Carson/Penny or Michel/Harris). Good chance to hit 1,000+ rushing yards and could sneak into the 9th or 10th spot with a strong enough year

Everything so far seems to indicate a pretty even split between Freeman & Lindsey. 

I’m not saying your prediction can’t happen; but I think the opposite is true in your Penny/Carson comp.

From all indications, Penny isn’t much of a threat to Carson but Freeman is likely to gobble up a good chunk of Linsey’s touches. 

They’ll both likely be flex plays, but I don’t see a 1k rusher emerging there. Lindsey will likely go over 1000 APY with receiving factored in. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

And a terrible OL that might get Winston killed by wee 4. 

So there’s that. :shrug:

That is the one concern for me actually. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Everything so far seems to indicate a pretty even split between Freeman & Lindsey. 

I’m not saying your prediction can’t happen; but I think the opposite is true in your Penny/Carson comp.

From all indications, Penny isn’t much of a threat to Carson but Freeman is likely to gobble up a good chunk of Linsey’s touches. 

They’ll both likely be flex plays, but I don’t see a 1k rusher emerging there. Lindsey will likely go over 1000 APY with receiving factored in. 

I can see this as last year Freeman still had 130 carries but only 14 catches. He struggled though with just a 4.0 YPC and horrible 5.1 YPR. Lindsay only had 192 carries but still topped 1,000 yards (notable 5.4 YPC) while hauling in 35 catches.

Could there be a similar split this season? Absolutely but I also have a feeling this coaching staff will ride the hot hand rather than forcing a mix and if Lindsay's blowing away Freeman performance wise, it'd be baffling for the staff to give Freeman touches just for the sake of keeping a balance.

I also think it's telling that despite being undrafted, Lindsay surged past Freeman, who was a 3rd Round pick, and was ultra productive in doing so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, DawnBTVS said:

I can see this as last year Freeman still had 130 carries but only 14 catches. He struggled though with just a 4.0 YPC and horrible 5.1 YPR. Lindsay only had 192 carries but still topped 1,000 yards (notable 5.4 YPC) while hauling in 35 catches.

Could there be a similar split this season? Absolutely but I also have a feeling this coaching staff will ride the hot hand rather than forcing a mix and if Lindsay's blowing away Freeman performance wise, it'd be baffling for the staff to give Freeman touches just for the sake of keeping a balance.

I also think it's telling that despite being undrafted, Lindsay surged past Freeman, who was a 3rd Round pick, and was ultra productive in doing so.

All fair points - but so far reportedly Freeman has taken it to the next level. 

While RB is the easiest position to translate to the NFL, sometimes it takes a year for things to click & for the game to slow down.

remember that Freeman was a high pick & has the pedigree. And while Lindsey did pass him up last year, that’s not how the team wanted to use them. 

If Freeman struggles again, the upside for Lindsey is definitely there. But so far Freeman looks like the real deal bruising back they thought they drafted. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, N Zone said:

Best chance to be top 12: 

Leonard Fournette

Kerryon Johnson

Chris Carson

Philip Lindsay 

 

Best chance to bust: 

Derrick Henry

Aaron Jones

Sony Michel

 

Minor adjustment on my part due to the perpetual knee issues Sony has and the expectation he will miss time and RBBC more than expected.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's how I look at it:

Best Chances to be a top 10 back (due to team scheme and potential to be bellcow): Fournette, Carson

Highest median outcome (due to lack of internal competition and partly receiving): Freeman, Duke Johnson, Kerryon Johnson

Possible to be top 10 backs, but most risky/vulnerable (due to internal competition): Henry, Lindsey, Ekeler, Michel

Straight wild cards to me (which I think that I would draft in this order): Jones, Jacobs, Mack

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

Here's how I look at it:

Best Chances to be a top 10 back (due to team scheme and potential to be bellcow): Fournette, Carson

Highest median outcome (due to lack of internal competition and partly receiving): Freeman, Duke Johnson, Kerryon Johnson

Possible to be top 10 backs, but most risky/vulnerable (due to internal competition): Henry, Lindsey, Ekeler, Michel

Straight wild cards to me (which I think that I would draft in this order): Jones, Jacobs, Mack

I’m hoping Houston trades for Drake making Duke an afterthought. Drafted Drake at #85.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

remember that Freeman was a high pick & has the pedigree. And while Lindsey did pass him up last year, that’s not how the team wanted to use them. 

 

One of the things I find funny about Freeman falling into the 9th and 10th rounds.  Last year he was going in the 4th and he got dinged up and Lindsey broke out, but he doesn't all of a sudden lack ability or situation.   New defensive oriented coach who wants to run the ball and a new zone blocking system which Freeman seems better suited for.  Great value where he is going IMO.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, efactor said:

One of the things I find funny about Freeman falling into the 9th and 10th rounds.  Last year he was going in the 4th and he got dinged up and Lindsey broke out, but he doesn't all of a sudden lack ability or situation.   New defensive oriented coach who wants to run the ball and a new zone blocking system which Freeman seems better suited for.  Great value where he is going IMO.

Longtime Falcon homer here. The O-line upgrade is real!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm just not understanding the Lindsay Top 10-12 love...not only competition from R. Freeman...but Riddick will be back in October and Scangarello was lining him up all over the field in the second preseason game before getting injured.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

Here's how I look at it:

Best Chances to be a top 10 back (due to team scheme and potential to be bellcow): Fournette, Carson

Highest median outcome (due to lack of internal competition and partly receiving): Freeman, Duke Johnson, Kerryon Johnson

Possible to be top 10 backs, but most risky/vulnerable (due to internal competition): Henry, Lindsey, Ekeler, Michel

Straight wild cards to me (which I think that I would draft in this order): Jones, Jacobs, Mack

IMO, Mack belongs in the highest median outcome group.   What's changed about the staff saying (nevermind SHOWING in late season last year) that he was going to be a three down back?   If that still stands, then it really doesn't matter who the QB is or what game script is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, efactor said:

One of the things I find funny about Freeman falling into the 9th and 10th rounds.  Last year he was going in the 4th and he got dinged up and Lindsey broke out, but he doesn't all of a sudden lack ability or situation.   New defensive oriented coach who wants to run the ball and a new zone blocking system which Freeman seems better suited for.  Great value where he is going IMO.

I missed Freeman by 3 spots in the 11th round (IDP, so equivalent to 9th) 

i was pretty peeved. 😠

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, pinkham13 said:

Longtime Falcon homer here. The O-line upgrade is real!

Royce/Denver, not Davonte/ATL.

:no: 

  • Laughing 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, pinkham13 said:

I’m hoping Houston trades for Drake making Duke an afterthought. Drafted Drake at #85.

Trading for Drake would in no way shape or form make Duke an afterthought. lol

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.