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Hot Sauce Guy

What PPR WRs ranked 11-20 sneak into the top 10 this year & why? Also, pick 1 to bust.

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Title says it all. Which of the projected WRs ranked 11-20 for PPR will take a jump to the top 10 this year & why? 

Anyone from 21+ that takes that leap? 

Also, pick one that will bust (for this topic, meaning “fall out of the top 20”.

As currently ranked in @Sigmund Bloom‘s top 250 PPR rankings:

11. Lockett

12. Diggs

13. AB

14. Cooks

15. Godwin

16. ARob

17. Amari Cooper

18. Kupp

19. Ridley

20. Woods

21 ~> ?

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My initial pick was going to be Lockett, but at 11 that’s barely statistically relevant. 

So imma go with Amari Cooper (WR18)  

Before the foot/heel news/confusion, I believe he was considered a top 10 WR. 

Cooper says his foot is fine, it’s something he’s played through before, and if it were regular season he’d be able to play through it. 

ARob has a shot,  but IMO that’s going to have as much to do with Trubisky taking the next step, and/or the Bears needing to air it out enough to give him that value. With that defense it may not happen. 

As for the “bust” (outside 20) , I’ll go with Godwin. He’s been a super popular WR2 pick this year, and I get why - he has eye popping talent.  But Winston could spend a disproportionate amount of his season laying on his back looking through his ear-hole, and as the 2nd or 3rd option on his own team it’s hard to see him staying in the top 20 PPR. 

Bonus bust: one of Kupp/Woods/Cooks (18, 20, 14) . I just can’t see the Rams sustaining 3x WRs in that range. I could be wrong,  but it feels like for 2 of those guys to be top 20, one will have to fall out (or get hurt) 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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Kupp for top 10.  Kupp for top 10.  Kupp for top 10.

Im gonna beat this drum like your mom when she doesn't have my money.  The man is the engine that makes the rams go.  He's Goffs guy on third downs and in the redzone.  As long as he doesn't get injured again Kupp for top 10.

 

Bust - arob.  I don't get it.  He had one really good year.  He's not that player.

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I like Diggs a lot this year.  Still only 25 and has the speed and the run after the catch ability to take the next step.  He was close last year and if the Vikings actually throw him the ball more than 5 yards downfield, he could be a top 6-8 WR.

Love Godwin this year too.  As you said, eye popping talent and according to Arians, he will be on the field in all sets this year with Humphries and Jackson gone.  Last year, he was only on the field for 64 percent of the snaps.  Lot of shoot outs for TB this year and he has the perfect storm in from of him.  

I'm actually going to go with Cooper as my bust candidate.  Foot injuries for WRs scare the hell out of me and he disappears a lot of games as it is.  Lot of double teams for him too.

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Bust - arob.  I don't get it.  He had one really good year.  He's not that player.

Agree here.  His one good year probably set an all time record for garbage time points in NFL history (no, I don't have a link for that).

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Title says it all. Which of the projected WRs ranked 11-20 for PPR will take a jump to the top 10 this year & why? 

Anyone from 21+ that takes that leap? 

Also, pick one that will bust (for this topic, meaning “fall out of the top 20”.

As currently ranked in @Sigmund Bloom‘s top 250 PPR rankings:

11. Lockett

12. Diggs

13. AB

14. Cooks

15. Godwin

16. ARob

17. Amari Cooper

18. Kupp

19. Ridley

20. Woods

21 ~> ?

ARob is the one that's going to make the biggest jump. 

 

Not sure if he busts but Ridley really isn't that good. 

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41 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Kupp for top 10.  Kupp for top 10.  Kupp for top 10.

Im gonna beat this drum like your mom when she doesn't have my money.  The man is the engine that makes the rams go.  He's Goffs guy on third downs and in the redzone.  As long as he doesn't get injured again Kupp for top 10.

 

Bust - arob.  I don't get it.  He had one really good year.  He's not that player.

This this and this.  Oh and did I mention, this. 

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I would say Lockett and while he is 11 here in most rankings I see he is more in the 15-20 range so it would be a jump for him to get into top 10.

Why can he do it? First, opportunity. All those Baldwin targets will go somewhere and he is the best receiver on the team right now. Metcalf is going to take longer than people thought to develop. Moore dealing with injury.  Jaron Brown???  Yes, they are a team that runs a lot but it is hard to see how Lockett doesn't command the lion share of looks.  And last year he was very efficient, catching 57 of 70 targets (81% catch rate) to go with an amazing 16.9 ypc. What happens if he gets 100 or more targets, which seems likely?  

 

As for bust, I think the argument someone else made about Rams not being able to sustain three receivers makes sense--one of them is likely to fall.  Cooper is a risk given his foot issue but it sounds like he has dealt with it before and he has had time to rest it through preseason.

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22 minutes ago, Milkman said:

ARob is the one that's going to make the biggest jump. 

I love him as a value WR3 this year. 

22 minutes ago, Milkman said:

 

Not sure if he busts but Ridley really isn't that good. 

I’m so torn on this - I grabbed him last year right before his monster game. Then he spent the rest of the season disappointing me. 

He runs crisp routes - has size & speed - but his hands, I fear, may be made of bovine material. 

He has ham hands, is what I’m saying. 

The only way he turns into what people think he’s going to be is if he gets the drops under control.

so yeah - I don’t want to agree, but I totally agree. 

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10 minutes ago, az_prof said:

I would say Lockett and while he is 11 here in most rankings I see he is more in the 15-20 range so it would be a jump for him to get into top 10.

Why can he do it? First, opportunity. All those Baldwin targets will go somewhere and he is the best receiver on the team right now. Metcalf is going to take longer than people thought to develop. Moore dealing with injury.  Jaron Brown???  Yes, they are a team that runs a lot but it is hard to see how Lockett doesn't command the lion share of looks.  And last year he was very efficient, catching 57 of 70 targets (81% catch rate) to go with an amazing 16.9 ypc. What happens if he gets 100 or more targets, which seems likely?  

Agree about Lockett. People don’t believe in him, but playing full time in the slot is even more relevant than the increased targets, IMO. 

10 minutes ago, az_prof said:

As for bust, I think the argument someone else made about Rams not being able to sustain three receivers makes sense--one of them is likely to fall.  Cooper is a risk given his foot issue but it sounds like he has dealt with it before and he has had time to rest it through preseason.

That was me - I’d say it’s likely Woods. Cooks is an elite talent, which I didn’t use to believe until I watched him a lot more. 

And while I love Woods as a player, I think between Geoff’s eyes for Kupp & Cook’s playmaking, Woods may be the odd man out. Again - not saying “bust” bust,  but outside the top 20. 

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He's not on the list, but Julian Edelman. I posted in other threads . . .  

Quote

In 25 career games when Julian Edelman has played and Rob Gronkowski has not, Edelman has averaged 11.4 targets per game. Over a full season, that's 182 targets (which I admit there is decent risk that he won't stay on the field for a full season). He's averaged 7.3 receptions and 85 receiving yards in those games. His projected full season numbers would work out to 117 receptions, 1,360 yards, and 5 TD. His current ADP is in the WR 15-17 range. His PPR average was 17.72 ppg (284 points over a full season). Over the past 5 seasons, with that annual scoring total, Edelman would have ranked 9th, 7th, 5th, 3rd, and 10th.

 

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PPR:

Diggs.  Wouldn't shock me if he finished WR1 overall.

Bust = AB. Wouldn't surprise me if he finished the year suspended/retired. History of 30 year old+ WR changing teams isn't kind. Particularly not to ones going to average (at best) QBs. He hasn't even played a game with them and they've already had to tell him "You're in or you're out". Imagine this is going to end well....

Edited by Craig_MiamiFL
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9 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

He's not on the list, but Julian Edelman. I posted in other threads . . .  

 

I agree there are more targets for him, but that also means more hits. He plays a tough style of football. That many hits add up & he’s no spring chicken. 

Pats like to spread the call around...I could also see someone like LaCosse emerging as a surprise sleeper TE. 

Honestly could see Edelman on either list (top 10 or bust outside top 20) 

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Not sure why you're going with such an idiosyncratic list of top WRs. 

Back in the real world, the actual second ten of the top 20 includes players such as Julian Edelman, Adam Thielen, Robert Woods, and Kenny Golladay. 

 

Of the real world 11-20,  I'm not sure anyone is a huge bust but I don't like Golladay for his roi compared to his adp. I'll take Jones 4 rounds later and get essentially the same roi. 

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2 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

My initial pick was going to be Lockett, but at 11 that’s barely statistically relevant. 

So imma go with Amari Cooper (WR18)  

Before the foot/heel news/confusion, I believe he was considered a top 10 WR. 

Cooper says his foot is fine, it’s something he’s played through before, and if it were regular season he’d be able to play through it. 

ARob has a shot,  but IMO that’s going to have as much to do with Trubisky taking the next step, and/or the Bears needing to air it out enough to give him that value. With that defense it may not happen. 

As for the “bust” (outside 20) , I’ll go with Godwin. He’s been a super popular WR2 pick this year, and I get why - he has eye popping talent.  But Winston could spend a disproportionate amount of his season laying on his back looking through his ear-hole, and as the 2nd or 3rd option on his own team it’s hard to see him staying in the top 20 PPR. 

Bonus bust: one of Kupp/Woods/Cooks (18, 20, 14) . I just can’t see the Rams sustaining 3x WRs in that range. I could be wrong,  but it feels like for 2 of those guys to be top 20, one will have to fall out (or get hurt) 

Gallup is the real deal, him and Cobb are going to vulture from Cooper.  I'll go with Kupp since I drafted him.  Locket for the bust.

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2 hours ago, Truebluey said:

Not sure why you're going with such an idiosyncratic list of top WRs

I said right in the OP I took Sigmund Bloom’s most recent top 250 PPR and used the rankings from that. It’s not an Idiosyncratic list. It’s just a point of reference I used. Thielen was in his top 10, IIRC. Edelman right around 21-22.

Quote

Back in the real world, the actual second ten of the top 20 includes players such as Julian Edelman, Adam Thielen, Robert Woods, and Kenny Golladay. 

:rolleyes:

Woods is on the list above that you just criticized unnecessarily. At #20. 

 

 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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10 minutes ago, tonydead said:

Gallup is the real deal, him and Cobb are going to vulture from Cooper.  I'll go with Kupp since I drafted him.  Locket for the bust.

I hope Gallup is the real deal. That’ll open things up for AC. :pickle:

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No criticism. Just pointing out that actual ADP is much more interesting to discuss, as it effects our actual draft choices this weekend. 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I agree there are more targets for him, but that also means more hits. He plays a tough style of football. That many hits add up & he’s no spring chicken. 

Pats like to spread the call around...I could also see someone like LaCosse emerging as a surprise sleeper TE. 

Honestly could see Edelman on either list (top 10 or bust outside top 20) 

I see zero evidence the Patriots will use the TE spot much at all. They've moved on. Gordon / Thomas / Harry are all big bodied and will run some of the routes Gronk used to run. IMO, the TE's will be used more to block than for routes. As already noted, Edelman has had issues playing 16 games in a season. However, I generally care more about Top 10 PPG than Top 10 actual points scored. Injuries can happen to anybody.

As for the Pats spreading the ball around, that is mostly a myth. That was the pre-2007 version of the offense. Since then, that really isn't true anymore. The last few years it's been a steady helping of Edelman, Gronk, and White (with one year of Cook mixed in). Usually, Brady focuses on a small number of guys he trusts and everyone else is an also ran. He would throw to them on occasion, but they weren't big cogs in the offense.

The bigger issue for Edelman might be if they really go overboard ground and pound, but I don't think that will happen. I would think NE will try to score early and often and let the strength of the defense (pinning back their ears to attack the QB and play good coverage) to may opponents one dimensional.

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I have 2 guys outside this top-20 that I really like.

1. Kenny Golladay, Stafford has supported top-10 WR's before, so has a Bevell offense, Golladay is an athletic freak, who was a bit of a raw prospect coming out, he improved from year 1 to year 2. and should continue to improve in year 3. Now, I don't think he'll be especially consistent, as the Lions do want to be a run first team, but I don't think they are good enough to do that each week. So Golladay will likely be up and down, but the booms could/should outweigh the busts. Think of him like discount Amari Cooper.

2. Dede Westbrook, he's pretty much all they have, and like the Lions, I don't think they'll be good enough to sustain the run/play defense against most teams. Westbrook could catch 100 passes in this offense. Foles threw to him heavily this preseason, and he was a camp star. Defillipo's offense in Minnesota heavily featured Adam Thielen in the slot last year, and while Westbrook likely won't approach those levels, he might not be that far behind.

Bust candidate is likely either one of the Rams WR's(I'll guess Kupp just due to health) or Ridley(so many mouths to feed, and much better run game/defense this season)

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3 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I see zero evidence the Patriots will use the TE spot much at all. They've moved on.

I’ve heard they like LaCosse. I’m not saying he becomes the next Gronk, but he could be the next Aaron Hernandez...uh, a little less murdery tho, hopefully. 

3 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Gordon / Thomas / Harry are all big bodied and will run some of the routes Gronk used to run. IMO, the TE's will be used more to block than for routes.

LaCosse is a move TE I believe, and at present I think he’s the only one healthy / not suspended. 

Regarding Thomas/Gordon, I think they’ll suck up some of those targets too. 

3 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

As already noted, Edelman has had issues playing 16 games in a season. However, I generally care more about Top 10 PPG than Top 10 actual points scored. Injuries can happen to anybody.

Truth. But the more hits, the more the chance of injury. 

I’m just saying, dude takes a lot of hits. 

3 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

As for the Pats spreading the ball around, that is mostly a myth. That was the pre-2007 version of the offense. Since then, that really isn't true anymore. The last few years it's been a steady helping of Edelman, Gronk, and White (with one year of Cook mixed in). Usually, Brady focuses on a small number of guys he trusts and everyone else is an also ran. He would throw to them on occasion, but they weren't big cogs in the offense.

Fair point. They do tend to evolve depending on personnel over the years. 

3 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:



The bigger issue for Edelman might be if they really go overboard ground and pound, but I don't think that will happen. I would think NE will try to score early and often and let the strength of the defense (pinning back their ears to attack the QB and play good coverage) to may opponents one dimensional.

I think they want to run more, but then I think every team wants to run more - but it’s a poor fit for the modern game. 

So you might be right & Edelman could be the 150 catch monster target share hog. Anywhere around 120 catches & he’s top 10. I’m not sure where he is on Sig’s list. I think I just past Ridley around 21-22. 

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I'm not as confident in my WR calls this year as my RB calls, but here are some guys who I think present intriguing value:

Allen Robinson - I don't really see an elite finish in his future this year, but a modest bump in targets and/or efficiency should push him up into WR2 territory, so if you can get him for WR3 prices then I like it. If not, I wouldn't reach for him.

AJ Green - Still a very good WR and a better player than Boyd. When he's healthy, he can bring you WR1-level ppg. If you can construct your roster with enough depth to survive his missed time, he can be a player who helps win your league for you when the FF playoffs come around.

DJ Moore - I'm not 100% sold, but he was always a freaky athlete coming out of the draft and it translated into impact plays last season. Guys like this are liable to take a big step forward. Question marks about the system and QB situation help keep his value down.

Mike Williams - A WR3-WR4 with big upside if they ramp up his target load. He was efficient and productive last season with his chances. The question is whether or not there will be enough opportunities there for him to really blossom. Allen is still around, Henry is back healthy, and Ekeler will vulture some targets as well. Still, if you're looking for upside in the late rounds, these ascending high draft talents like Moore and Williams are often a good place to gamble.

Jarvis Landry - A player who lacks explosiveness and is reliant on volume. There should be less opportunities with Beckham in town, but on the other hand he should be facing weaker coverages and Baker should only be better in year two. A decent depth candidate to pair with more volatile, high-ceiling types.

Marquise Brown - Rookie WRs are typically a dicey play, but the Ravens have an empty cupboard beyond their TEs, and this DeSean Jackson-like rookie could have a similar impact out of the box.

Deebo Samuel - When in doubt, draft the most talented player in a given situation. Pettis and Goodwin have a chance to be useful this year, but I think Samuel is probably the best WR in SF. His versatile skill set and play style should allow for an early impact.

Quincy Enunwa - A modest ceiling, high floor PPR depth candidate who should get a decent target load by default. He's never going to be a Pro Bowl type of guy and he's injury-prone, but if you want to solidify your lineup with a late round guy who can cover your bye weeks and injuries, you could do a lot worse.

If Cooper's injury issues plague him then I could see Gallup having a decent year, though in a vacuum I think he looks mediocre from a talent standpoint.

Tre'Quan Smith is another guy with a good draft pedigree who could take a leap.

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9 minutes ago, EBF said:

Tre'Quan Smith is another guy with a good draft pedigree who could take a leap.

I’m probably higher on him than is reasonable or healthy. 

I could easily see him becoming a top 20 WR as soon as this year. As you mentioned with Deebo above, it’s a bet on talent. 

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14 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Bust candidate is likely either one of the Rams WR's(I'll guess Kupp just due to health)

Reports out of camp say he's faster, quicker, and moving better out of his breaks than before his injury.

Beat this drum.

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3 hours ago, Milkman said:

 

Not sure if he busts but Ridley really isn't that good. 

He's the same player we thought he was. Pro ready as a rookie but lacks the upside of a top 10 receiver. I'm pretty sure he ends up being a solid 2 or 3 type most of his career. 

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Cases can be made for or against any of the players in this range. That’s what makes this so fun, we all think we got it figured out. Here’s my take from that list... 

 

boom - Godwin - 180 vacated targets and nobody worth a thing behind him. Evans draws the double and Howard keeps the safeties honest. The o line means quick passes and Godwin is taking over the 2 or the slot in 3 receiver sets. 

Bust - gotta agree with the rams WR for where they are being drafted. I just can’t see them sustaining 3 low wr1s/high wr2s. I think they are all middle to low end wr2s by seasons end (barring injury) that will unpredictability all have big games and small throughout the season. That uncertainty would drive me mad 

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5 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I agree there are more targets for him, but that also means more hits. He plays a tough style of football. That many hits add up & he’s no spring chicken. 

Pats like to spread the call around...I could also see someone like LaCosse emerging as a surprise sleeper TE. 

Honestly could see Edelman on either list (top 10 or bust outside top 20) 

I see Edelman as a bust. He is too old and injury prone to play deep into his 30s.

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Kupp.......Goff loves him.  He will pick up where he left off before injury.

ARob.......if he stays healthy hes going to get targets galore and RZ looks.

 

AB has bust written all over him.  Carr is a major downgrade from Ben.  Gruden is a has been.  AB is a diva......wouldnt touch him with a ten foot pole.

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can't see 3 Rams WRs in the top 20. Can't see Gordon, N. Harry amounting to anything. If preseason matters even the slightest, the Law Firm, aka Jakobi Meyers, is going to be a household name by the end of week 1. he looks fantastic,there's been a lot of buzz about him,and he produces in games. 

I like the calls on Dede Westbrook, he's getting near elite level targets on limited time in preseason. Robby Anderson should feast this season.Sterling Shepherd is a boomer.

 

 

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The thing with the 3 ram wrs is that they also have the 31st rated TE.  So it's not quite the problem that some teams would have that also have a top 6 TE.

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14 hours ago, EBF said:

 

Tre'Quan Smith is another guy with a good draft pedigree who could take a leap.

I keep going back and forth on Smith. 

While the Saints are obviously one of the more consistent offenses in the NFL, it's also become more balanced to the point where Brees doesn't chuck it nearly as much as he used to. Thomas is a target monster, so he'll get his, but so will Kamara and, to a lesser extent, Cook. Not sure how much that will leave for Smith.

Edited by zamboni
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7 minutes ago, zamboni said:

I keep going back and forth on Smith. 

While the Saints are obviously one of the more consistent offenses in the NFL, it's also become more balanced to the point where Brees doesn't chuck it nearly as much as he used to. Thomas is a target monster, so he'll get his, but so will Kamara and, to a lesser extent, Cook. Not sure how much that will leave for Smith.

Yeah. Like Smith a lot in best ball but hard to count on for any type of consistency week to week. 

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3 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

 If preseason matters even the slightest,

It doesn’t. 

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I know no one likes to hear history lessons and talk of regression, but of the 20 NFL teams that scored 500 or more points in a season since 1960, those teams averaged 533 points in a season. The following year, the averaged scoring drop off was close to 25% . . . down to 431 points. Last year, the Chiefs (565), Rams (527), and Saints (504) all scored 500 or more points. If that trend holds true, that will probably lead to a drop off in fantasy scoring for players from those teams. 

Edited by Anarchy99
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25 minutes ago, zamboni said:

I keep going back and forth on Smith. 

While the Saints are obviously one of the more consistent offenses in the NFL, it's also become more balanced to the point where Brees doesn't chuck it nearly as much as he used to. Thomas is a target monster, so he'll get his, but so will Kamara and, to a lesser extent, Cook. Not sure how much that will leave for Smith.

As much as it left for Ted Ginn or Willie Sneed, who were both borderline WR2 for stretches, and that was when Graham was a top TE with the Saints. 

And Smith is much better than either Snead or Ginn, IMO. 

Could be a sneaky good WR2, and I can see a circumstance where he’s the 3rd receiving option behind Thomas & Kamara, or even (gasp) the 2nd option after Thomas. :o 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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16 hours ago, Milkman said:

ARob is the one that's going to make the biggest jump. 

 

Not sure if he busts but Ridley really isn't that good. 

List of WR's to have 800 yards their rookie seasons since 2011 and their yardage totals the following year.

OBJ - 1450
M. Thomas - 1245
Cooper - 1149
Green - 1350
K. Allen - 783
K. Benjamin - DNP
Watkins - 1047
J. Jones - 1198
J. Mathews - 997
Kupp - (566 in 8 games)
Blackmon - DNP
Hilton - 1083
T. Smith - 855
Gordon - 1646
Hopkins - 1210

I am willing to bet that Ridley is actually good and has a low bust potential.

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1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

I know one likes to hear history lessons and talk of regression, but of the 20 NFL teams that scored 500 or more points in a season since 1960, those teams averaged 533 points in a season. The following year, the averaged scoring drop off was close to 25% . . . down to 431 points. Last year, the Chiefs (565), Rams (527), and Saints (504) all scored 500 or more points. If that trend holds true, that will probably lead to a drop off in fantasy scoring for players from those teams. 

I’d say with the Chiefs anything is on the table, including an increase. Andy Reid is a genius & he has plays on top of plays.

inside 1 drive of the 3rd preseason game (took all of 3 plays to cap with a 62 yard TD) I thought, “Jesus, this offense is going to set records.”

Rams get Kupp back, and Saints are the Saints.

added to all that rules that protect the QB & WR, the league is also trending more vertically, which may off-set that a bit. 

hard to argue with history, but gut check tells me these three teams will be just fine. 

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21 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’ve heard they like LaCosse. I’m not saying he becomes the next Gronk, but he could be the next Aaron Hernandez...uh, a little less murdery tho, hopefully. 

LaCosse is a move TE I believe, and at present I think he’s the only one healthy / not suspended. 

Regarding Thomas/Gordon, I think they’ll suck up some of those targets too. 

Truth. But the more hits, the more the chance of injury. 

I’m just saying, dude takes a lot of hits. 

Fair point. They do tend to evolve depending on personnel over the years. 

I think they want to run more, but then I think every team wants to run more - but it’s a poor fit for the modern game. 

So you might be right & Edelman could be the 150 catch monster target share hog. Anywhere around 120 catches & he’s top 10. I’m not sure where he is on Sig’s list. I think I just past Ridley around 21-22. 

So I admit to being sceptical that Edelman in his age 34 season and coming off an injury is going to be able to be a target hog this season, at least without getting hurt.  Thus, I find it hard to believe he is going to have a top 20 season.  So I looked at all the receivers since 1988 who were age 34 or older and how many receptions they had.  The list is longer than I imagined but most of them are Hall of Fame receivers or in line to be HOF inductees. There are a few exceptions of guys who had more than 70 receptions age 34 and older who were not HOF type guys, but not many.  I don't see Edelman as a Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Chris Carter, Marvin Harrison, Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, etc type of player.

Guys more in his quality range have done it: Rod Smith, Derrick Mason, Keyshawn Johnson, and Keenan McCardell, but when you think of how many players and years this search includes, the list of guys who are comparable to Edelman who had a 70 reception + year age 34 or older is pretty small.  I wouldnt bet on it.

Link shows you my search results: http://pfref.com/tiny/0Tg6s

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Just now, az_prof said:

So I admit to being sceptical that Edelman in his age 34 season and coming off an injury is going to be able to be a target hog this season, at least without getting hurt.  Thus, I find it hard to believe he is going to have a top 20 season.  So I looked at all the receivers since 1988 who were age 34 or older and how many receptions they had.  The list is longer than I imagined but most of them are Hall of Fame receivers or in line to be HOF inductees. There are a few exceptions of guys who had more than 70 receptions age 34 and older who were not HOF type guys, but not many.  I don't see Edelman as a Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Chris Carter, Marvin Harrison, Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, etc type of player.

Guys more in his quality range have done it: Rod Smith, Derrick Mason, Keyshawn Johnson, and Keenan McCardell, but when you think of how many players and years this search includes, the list of guys who are comparable to Edelman who had a 70 reception + year age 34 or older is pretty small.  I wouldnt bet on it.

Link shows you my search results: http://pfref.com/tiny/0Tg6s

It’s a solid take, but we did just see Edelman play at an elite level last year in the playoffs. 

So like you, I have a hard time imagining that with his style of play he can increase his targets substantially & survive that many more hits, but I do believe he’ll be capable of playing at an elite level again this year. 

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him at 2018 numbers, nor would I be surprised to see him go down with [insert body part here] for 3-5 games. 

I kinda feel like it’s a coin flip, which is how I felt about him last season.  

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21 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

I’m probably higher on him than is reasonable or healthy. 

I could easily see him becoming a top 20 WR as soon as this year. As you mentioned with Deebo above, it’s a bet on talent. 

I'm high on Tre'quan too and was thrilled to get him this week in a deal for Vance McDonald.  I see a lot of opportunity in New Orleans and expect him to displace Ginn as the second WR.  He was a third round pick last year but has adequate speed, good size, and runs routes well.  I think he is something like a WR57 right now, which seems really low for a young guy in a good situation who while he didn't do great last year showed enough to prove he belongs.

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Edelman is heading into his age 33 season not age 34. And his injury is a thumb injury, not like he had reconstructive knee surgery. 

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11 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

If preseason matters even the slightest, the Law Firm, aka Jakobi Meyers, is going to be a household name by the end of week 1. he looks fantastic,there's been a lot of buzz about him,and he produces in games.

Even prior to tonight's game, Meyers has already locked up the "most receiving yards in a preseason" title with regard to the Patriots in the BB era.  

Here were all the NE players that totaled at least 150 receiving yards in a single preseason . . . Year / Receptions / Yardage

Bam Childress		2006	11	214
AJ Derby		2016	15	189
Brian Tyms		2014	11	188
David Patten		2002	11	185
Ben Watson		2005	13	181
Deion Branch		2002	13	178
Kembrell Thompson	2013	15	166
Austin Carr		2017	14	153
David Patten		2001	12	151
DJ Foster		2017	13	150
Chris Harper		2015	15	150
Aaron Dobson		2013	11	150
Terry Glenn		2000	14	150

People can decide for themselves if preseason stats mean anything.

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I grabbed A.J. Green at 65. I like EBF’s take on him. If you have two top starters at WR and don’t need Green for 4-5 weeks it could be an unbeatable strength. 

Deebo Samuel in Shanny’s office could be gold. Sometimes a rookie just goes off his first year. Talent and Opportunity is there.

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4 hours ago, az_prof said:

So I admit to being sceptical that Edelman in his age 34 season and coming off an injury is going to be able to be a target hog this season, at least without getting hurt.  Thus, I find it hard to believe he is going to have a top 20 season.  So I looked at all the receivers since 1988 who were age 34 or older and how many receptions they had.  The list is longer than I imagined but most of them are Hall of Fame receivers or in line to be HOF inductees. There are a few exceptions of guys who had more than 70 receptions age 34 and older who were not HOF type guys, but not many.  I don't see Edelman as a Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Chris Carter, Marvin Harrison, Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, etc type of player.

Guys more in his quality range have done it: Rod Smith, Derrick Mason, Keyshawn Johnson, and Keenan McCardell, but when you think of how many players and years this search includes, the list of guys who are comparable to Edelman who had a 70 reception + year age 34 or older is pretty small.  I wouldnt bet on it.

Link shows you my search results: http://pfref.com/tiny/0Tg6s

He's 33, not sure why you're spinning it as his age 34 season.  Also, he does have a little less wear and tear as he hasn't been a full time receiver his entire career.

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I’m surprised there’s not more love for Tyler Boyd. With Green’s injury, he could be looking at 150 targets this year on a team with a terrible defense who’ll be playing from behind all season.

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3 minutes ago, Workhorse said:

I’m surprised there’s not more love for Tyler Boyd. With Green’s injury, he could be looking at 150 targets this year on a team with a terrible defense who’ll be playing from behind all season.

Shhhhhhhh

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5 minutes ago, Workhorse said:

I’m surprised there’s not more love for Tyler Boyd. With Green’s injury, he could be looking at 150 targets this year on a team with a terrible defense who’ll be playing from behind all season.

I got to watch Boyd last season as I rostered him and it looked like he struggled being the main guy in that offense. When others drew coverage is when he did well, IIRC. That's going off memory, though, which can be faulty. 

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