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Second tier of rb’s (where this draft will be won and lost) (1 Viewer)

S

Saboo

Footballguy
To me the key to this draft is the draft is who in the second tier of rb’s will emerge as true impact players worthy of second round consideration. That said, I cannot decide in which order I should rank the following players in both a 1/2 point per and in standard. How would you rank this tier of players?

Joe Mixon - Talented rb playing behind a bad offensive line w/out AJ Green for the first few weeks

Damian Williams - This years ultimate boom or bust player

Aaron Jones - Will he be the man in GB or will it be a committee? Has huge upside.

Leonard Fournette - Will we get the solid rookie output or the outright bust of 2018?

Sony Michael - Underrated. Has huge potential (especially td potential) in NE. I put td over/under at 11.

Todd Gurley -  Superstar playing with arthritic knee. Role in question

Dalvin Cook - Huge potential in good offense if he can only stay healthy 

Chris Carson - The Seahawks will run a ton, but will Penny steal touches? Is he worth where he is being drafted after a great finish in 2018?

Devonta Freeman - In great offense, but has he lost a step? Past first round pick who is still fairly young

Kerryon Johnson - Talented runner, but I fear the offense he is in as well as his coach and how he will be used.

Josh Jacobs -  Will the rookie get enough touches? How will he be used?

P.S. Hopefully I posted this in the correct forum. I apologize in advance if it should be in the assistant coach forum.

 
I like to sort by target, consider, avoid at adp

Target
Cook - Sure there is injury risk, but there is with all RB's.  Upside is there.
Carson - Carson in the 4th is cheating.  Going to be a solid RB1
Michel - Again maybe riskier than the others but the price reflects that.  Sweet early half of the season schedule, could have 16 TDs in first 8 games.
Freeman - Good offense, playing almost exclusively indoors.  Top 5 upside
Johnson - I don't believe he is going to split with CJ as much as is predicted.  Solid talent in a run first offense.

Consider
Mixon - Worried about that team in general, but he did it last year with the same scenario
Gurley - Coming around on taking the risk.  Like him in the second cause he could be the RB1 again this year.
Jacobs - Cheapest bellcow in the draft.

Avoid
Williams - Darwin takes the lead role by week 6. Draft Darwin in the 7th-8th and win your league
Jones - I go back and forth on Jones, but today he is an avoid.  I don't really like any of the GB players at there ADP's.  Questionable coaching staff.  A qb that will take over the game.  In a tough division. Too many detractors and there are others I like better.
Fournette - Bad team, Bad QB, not sure he is good.  Knuckle head.  No thanks.

 
Michel is going way too late. I have no idea why. I scooped him up in one draft over Henry and I have another draft coming up in which in mocks he slips to me as well.

I also think you have to add Ingram to the list as he goes in this same group and he should be a workhorse in BAL.

 
Good subject.

I can't make a better case to shuffle the way you ranked them, but three kind of "tweak" my Spidy Sense...

Damian Williams - Andy Reid always seems to produce a top-10 fantasy RB, and I loved The Omen

Devonta Freeman - Things seem awful quiet in ATL this preseason... I like quiet. Focused teams are quiet.

Chris Carson - Quietly 5th in rushing last season? Getting involved in the passing game now.

Also, not sure where you've got Marlon Mack... Tier  1? If he's in your Tier 3 then he should be listed as well... that OL is gonna plow the road this year.

 
abbottjamesr said:
Avoid
Williams - Darwin takes the lead role by week 6. Draft Darwin in the 7th-8th and win your league
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While I agree Damien Williams isn't a sure thing, the Darwin Thompson hype has driven down the cost of Williams in the three leagues I've drafted in.  It's a pretty unique situation to be able to draft a potential elite RB 1 without the price.  Yes, there is risk.

I'd also consider Darrel Williams as a much cheaper alternative to Darwin, if you want to take a stab at the KC backfield.  Darwin went sooner than I predicted (maybe I'm bad at this 🤔).

 
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drafted 2 weeks ago, somehow got Carson in the 6th RD of a 10 team standard 3 WR league ..... no one in that league seemed to like him (at the time)

the owners who took Mack, Lindsey, Coleman, and maybe Henry in front of him should be kicking themselves (note: I took Penny in the 7th)

I also really like D Freeman this year 

 
Joe Mixon - Talented rb playing behind a bad offensive line w/out AJ Green for the first few weeks
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31st ranked line. Mixon is a weekly volume play, but I question how much volume there will be if he’s staring at 8 in the box & the Bengals offense struggles. Based on preseason it may not be that bad if the Bengals can get the ball out quickly & use Uzomah & Boyd effectively. 

Damian Williams - This years ultimate boom or bust player
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All about health, & he has a quality handcuff so as long as you get Thompson, DWill in the 3rd is a great pick. 

Aaron Jones - Will he be the man in GB or will it be a committee? Has huge upside.
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A little of both. The use of their second back will (potentially) keep AJones healthy. Coulld be a monster season. 

Leonard Fournette - Will we get the solid rookie output or the outright bust of 2018?
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Huge volume. Again, health is the question. 

Sony Michael - Underrated. Has huge potential (especially td potential) in NE. I put td over/under at 11.
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Knee concerns me, but man he looks good in the preseason.

this is anecdotal, but every  time I’ve targeted a Pats RB it’s screwed me. If I take one late as a flier they’re always a jackpot (James White last year) 

Todd Gurley -  Superstar playing with arthritic knee. Role in question
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This feels like a RBBC, and I’m concerned about games 10 ~> as the wear & tear hits that knee. 

Dalvin Cook - Huge potential in good offense if he can only stay healthy 
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In for a big year. His injuries aren’t the recurring type. 

Chris Carson - The Seahawks will run a ton, but will Penny steal touches? Is he worth where he is being drafted after a great finish in 2018?
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Penny isn’t stealing anything. Carson is the man in Seattle. Penny is a breather back. 

Devonta Freeman - In great offense, but has he lost a step? Past first round pick who is still fairly young
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He’s coming off his first healthy offseason in years. Looks great. But he’s definitely a dude who gets banged up a lot. 

Kerryon Johnson - Talented runner, but I fear the offense he is in as well as his coach and how he will be used.
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Offense is a concern. I believe Kerryon said he’s not a 3rd down back, so you’ve got to wonder how he’ll be used. 

Josh Jacobs -  Will the rookie get enough touches? How will he be used?
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Bell cow, more than likely. He has little competition for carries. So unless he falls flat on his face he’ll be a solid value at his ADP. 

My $.02

 
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Out of all these backs, I like those that will be seeing the lion share of carries and who the running game is built around.

Cook and Fournette are at the top of this list. Can't predict another injury for Cook, but he looks good on a solid offense with additional help on the line. Fournette needs his head in the game, but has teh benefit of both being a true bell cow and involved in the passing game.

Connor and Mixon for me are a hair shy of these two -- I think both are likely the safest backs on this list, but what keeps Mixon from being in the tier above for me is I just don't trust the CIN offense -- line is not good, QB is aging and middling, and they will likely play from behind a lot. But no question I'd be just as comfortable drafting these two if the above two were gone.

I am actually higher on Henry than most, but totally understand why others see him as vastly inferior . I think he'll have the best left side of the line in football, and Mariota has healthy and improved receivers, and he is the bell cow. I put him in a tier with Jones, Williams, Carson, Freeman.

Jacobs has huge upside, but a lot of eggs to place in a basket for a back we haven't really seen, in a totally new offense in terms of personal. Some risk there. Michel looked super strong last year when on the field, I just don't trust that he'll have the same volume as others with the distribution and all those backs in that offense.

Gurley is a talent beyond all the backs on this list, I just don't trust the volume or the health. Kerryon Johnson scares me -- I think he's a great runner, but I think he'll lose TDs to CJ and the offense in general is a concern.

 
rschroeder1 said:
While I agree Damien Williams isn't a sure thing, the Darwin Thompson hype has driven down the cost of Williams in the three leagues I've drafted in.  It's a pretty unique situation to be able to draft a potential elite RB 1 without the price.  Yes, there is risk.

I'd also consider Darrel Williams as a much cheaper alternative to Darwin, if you want to take a stab at the KC backfield.  Darwin went sooner than I predicted (maybe I'm bad at this 🤔).
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I dunno. Williams was going in the late 2nd/early 3rd before he returned and got that 62 yard td pass. Now he seems to be going mid-2nd.

 
The best value plays to me are Gurley and Carson. Falcons Oline looks much stronger so Freeman should be solid RB2 with some RB1 games mixed in. 

 
shadyridr said:
I dunno. Williams was going in the late 2nd/early 3rd before he returned and got that 62 yard td pass. Now he seems to be going mid-2nd.
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Went 2.10 in my 12-teamer.

old school draft for that owner. kamara/DWill/AJones

his WRs are kinda meh,  but that’s a solid core of points to put up weekly in a flex league. 

 
Don't Noonan said:
Going against the grain here but I think Carson is in the bottom of the players you listed.  Just not a fan at all.
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And that’s why he’s a 3rd rounder and not a 1st or second. 

Your comment is only against the grain for this topic so far. I think most of the fantasy community agrees with you, which is why Carson has been a value pick to date (with a recent rise) 

keep in mind that several notable fantasy writers spent a chunk of the offseason trashing him. One recently wrote a retraction based on how good he’s looked, and how poor Penny has showed. 

And if you believe Carroll (admittedly a tough task) Carson could be in line for ~50 receptions.

 
Saboo said:
To me the key to this draft is the draft is who in the second tier of rb’s will emerge as true impact players worthy of second round consideration. That said, I cannot decide in which order I should rank the following players in both a 1/2 point per and in standard. How would you rank this tier of players?

Chris Carson - The Seahawks will run a ton, but will Penny steal touches? Is he worth where he is being drafted after a great finish in 2018?

Devonta Freeman - In great offense, but has he lost a step? Past first round pick who is still fairly young

Kerryon Johnson - Talented runner, but I fear the offense he is in as well as his coach and how he will be used.

Josh Jacobs -  Will the rookie get enough touches? How will he be used?
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None of these guys are in the "2nd tier of RBs".

 
pinkham13 said:
Why is that important? They’re outside the top ten. Maybe he could have said RB2 tier but I think we get the idea. Who do you like outside the top 10?
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The stated premise is that the 2nd tier of RBs will win or lose the draft.  How the hell do I know that he's really referring to RB tiers 2-5?   Or does he really have all of those guys in the 2nd tier of RBs?  It's a mystery.

 
tangfoot said:
The stated premise is that the 2nd tier of RBs will win or lose the draft.  How the hell do I know that he's really referring to RB tiers 2-5?   Or does he really have all of those guys in the 2nd tier of RBs?  It's a mystery.
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Geez dude, choose better battles, please.

 
Casting Couch said:
I don't have Duke Johnson in the second tier of RBs, not close to anyone on that list, imo.
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Me neither. The moment HOU gets another RB he becomes irrelevant again. Even if they dont there is a very good possibility he is not cut out to be a fulltime RB.

 
Leonard Fournette

I like Foles, I like that Fournette might get more catches and all the RB workload. Injury risk sure ... but his value now is LOW and the risk/reward is there IMO

 
shadyridr said:
Me neither. The moment HOU gets another RB he becomes irrelevant again. Even if they dont there is a very good possibility he is not cut out to be a fulltime RB.
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There is hardly anyone on this list who is a "fulltime RB." They are all in time shares of one sort or another. Duke has proven to be very effective in fantasy in time shares in the past and this situation in HOU is one where there isn't another RB remotely close to as talented as he is and the offense is a dynamic one that will score a lot and be on the field a lot. I don't expect him to get even 70% of the touches/targets but I would be surprised if he doesn't get at least 45 receptions (and that's on the low side) and 150 touches in the run game. 

He is not the same tier as Cook, Fournette, Michel group but he is definitely in the same tier as Freeman, Johnson, Jones, Mixon.  For context, just two years ago in 2017 he was RB11 in ppr leagues; now he is on a better team.

 
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Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Out of all these backs, I like those that will be seeing the lion share of carries and who the running game is built around.

Cook and Fournette are at the top of this list. Can't predict another injury for Cook, but he looks good on a solid offense with additional help on the line. Fournette needs his head in the game, but has teh benefit of both being a true bell cow and involved in the passing game.
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Completely agree. I think Fournette taking three months away from his family to train in the Wyoming winter is enough to tell me his head is in the game. He looked quite svelte in the 3rd preseason game...enough to remove the "if healthy" caveats. 1500+ total yards, 40 catches and double digit TD's easily within reach.

 
shadyridr said:
Me neither. The moment HOU gets another RB he becomes irrelevant again. Even if they dont there is a very good possibility he is not cut out to be a fulltime RB.
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Me neither.  Lamar Miller wasnt probably going to be in this discussion, and Duke was his backup.  

 
az_prof said:
There is hardly anyone on this list who is a "fulltime RB." They are all in time shares of one sort or another. Duke has proven to be very effective in fantasy in time shares in the past and this situation in HOU is one where there isn't another RB remotely close to as talented as he is and the offense is a dynamic one that will score a lot and be on the field a lot. I don't expect him to get even 70% of the touches/targets but I would be surprised if he doesn't get at least 45 receptions (and that's on the low side) and 150 touches in the run game. 

He is not the same tier as Cook, Fournette, Michel group but he is definitely in the same tier as Freeman, Johnson, Jones, Mixon.  For context, just two years ago in 2017 he was RB11 in ppr leagues; now he is on a better team.
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Dont have him anywhere near or even in the same discussion as any of these guys.  I think the 4 gys yu mentioned are every week starters, set them/forget them.  Duke is a bye week, injury replacement type, and may not even be the first one off a lot of benches to fill that role.

 
shadyridr said:
Me neither. The moment HOU gets another RB he becomes irrelevant again. Even if they dont there is a very good possibility he is not cut out to be a fulltime RB.
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ChuckLiddell said:
Me neither.  Lamar Miller wasnt probably going to be in this discussion, and Duke was his backup.  
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You guys didn’t think duke had a chance to supplant an ineffective Miller? You really think someone signed after cuts is going to come in and get even 50% of the work? What makes you think he isn’t cut out to be a “full time” back (or the lead dog in Houston)? He’s performed well. All he’s needed is an opportunity, and now he has that. It’s a good offense with a bad line that will use him in the pass game as well. I won’t go so far as to put him in the tier of Mixon/jones/KJ but if we’re talking value rbs that could drastically outperform draft slot I think duke is absolutely that guy. 

 
Snorkelson said:
You guys didn’t think duke had a chance to supplant an ineffective Miller? You really think someone signed after cuts is going to come in and get even 50% of the work? What makes you think he isn’t cut out to be a “full time” back (or the lead dog in Houston)? He’s performed well. All he’s needed is an opportunity, and now he has that. It’s a good offense with a bad line that will use him in the pass game as well. I won’t go so far as to put him in the tier of Mixon/jones/KJ but if we’re talking value rbs that could drastically outperform draft slot I think duke is absolutely that guy. 
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Of course all those things are possible. But not a high enough % to put him in the tier of RBs mentioned in this thread. He belongs in the Tevin Coleman tier

 
az_prof said:
There is hardly anyone on this list who is a "fulltime RB." They are all in time shares of one sort or another. Duke has proven to be very effective in fantasy in time shares in the past and this situation in HOU is one where there isn't another RB remotely close to as talented as he is and the offense is a dynamic one that will score a lot and be on the field a lot. I don't expect him to get even 70% of the touches/targets but I would be surprised if he doesn't get at least 45 receptions (and that's on the low side) and 150 touches in the run game. 

He is not the same tier as Cook, Fournette, Michel group but he is definitely in the same tier as Freeman, Johnson, Jones, Mixon.  For context, just two years ago in 2017 he was RB11 in ppr leagues; now he is on a better team.
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These guys are going in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
And that’s why he’s a 3rd rounder and not a 1st or second. 

Your comment is only against the grain for this topic so far. I think most of the fantasy community agrees with you, which is why Carson has been a value pick to date (with a recent rise) 

keep in mind that several notable fantasy writers spent a chunk of the offseason trashing him. One recently wrote a retraction based on how good he’s looked, and how poor Penny has showed. 

And if you believe Carroll (admittedly a tough task) Carson could be in line for ~50 receptions.
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I think the expectation coming into this season was that Penny would take the next step and at minimum force a 50/50 split. This is a fair assumption especially given how high Penny was drafted. Carson simply has not been touted as the future RB for this team so many just see him as a bridge to the next guy.  The reality is that Carson continues to look fantastic and Penny has not impressed. The other thing about Carson that drafters don't like is the fact that he doesn't have big play potential like others being drafted ahead of him.  

I love Carson because I see that he is a solid talent in a heavy volume situation. He is the perfect consistent RB2.  The rumors that he may be used more in the passing game makes sense with the departure of Davis. Given the injuries and lack of experience at the WR position I would expect more passes to the RB's as well. Unlike some RB's Carson actually has decent hands.

 
Observation on Fournette, and 2018 in particular.  Most of us have 🤮 over his 2018.  A mid 1st round pick, he angered a lot of people let’s say.

However...

Last year, he played in 8 games...but in two of those, he was out by halftime.  So let’s say he played in 7.  He tallied 624 YFS & 6 TD’s.

So in a year that universally was regarded as awful...his 16 games prorated averages were 1426 YFS & 14 TD’s.  I’d argue that he was still an RB1 when in the field last year...

 
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Snorkelson said:
You guys didn’t think duke had a chance to supplant an ineffective Miller? You really think someone signed after cuts is going to come in and get even 50% of the work? What makes you think he isn’t cut out to be a “full time” back (or the lead dog in Houston)? He’s performed well. All he’s needed is an opportunity, and now he has that. It’s a good offense with a bad line that will use him in the pass game as well. I won’t go so far as to put him in the tier of Mixon/jones/KJ but if we’re talking value rbs that could drastically outperform draft slot I think duke is absolutely that guy. 
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Yeah I think people are too optimistic that a dude off the street is going to come in and take major touches from Duke. I don't buy it. 

 
shadyridr said:
Doesn't have to be a dude off the street. Could be a trade or someone cut after next week. 
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I think Duke is a better / more talented back than pretty much everyone that's going to be cut or reasonably available, barring Melvin Gordon, Jordan Howard, and Drake. These are long shots to sign with HOU.

I may be missing a couple, but that's about it off the top of my head.

 
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Gordon should/would be be in that second tier and for those willing to roll the dice could be a huge value.  Might be the second highest risk/reward value proposition in the draft (behind Gurley).  

 
shadyridr said:
Doesn't have to be a dude off the street. Could be a trade or someone cut after next week. 
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Seems like chances of them getting some better than Duke are maybe about 5%.  Doubt someone like Carlos Hyde is going to impact his production much.

 
Quick question I feel is related......would you give up Fournette, Ekeler, Landry  for Sony, Kittle, Marvin if your TE was Andrews?   ppr deep keeper.    Ekeler is a temp, Landry and Marvin are basically a push but this is a Browns fan I'm dealing with.   Fournette and Sony seem like almost the same boom/bust potential....no?

 
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dkp993 said:
Gordon should/would be be in that second tier and for those willing to roll the dice could be a huge value.  Might be the second highest risk/reward value proposition in the draft (behind Gurley).  
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I don't consider Gurley that big of a risk considering where he is going in drafts. I'm starting to think more and more we have way over thought this situation. 

 
Fournette has #1 RB in FF upside. Everybody on the team has done nothing but praise Foles about how he's the best QB they have had there in years. They showed a little in the 3rd preseason game how they are planning on using Fournette......3 targets in 4 series. 

I'M BUYING ALL THE FOURNETTE I CAN GET EVERYWHERE. 

If he gets hurt again so be it. His upside is as high as anybody in FF and by all accounts he's been flying straight since last years troubles. 

 
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Mongidig said:
I don't consider Gurley that big of a risk considering where he is going in drafts. I'm starting to think more and more we have way over thought this situation. 
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Couldn't agree more, was more talking about the group think then my perspective 

 
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