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LeSean McCoy (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter GStrot
- Start date
Wrote something like this on the other shady thread that night it went down. If you were a DT truther like me now you should be a shady truther for all the same reasons. Only difference is you got a savvy legend instead of an unproven rookie. But we are still chasing the upside of Williams being a jag or tweaking hammy.
Good stuff. I figured data would be sketchy like you indicate. For that reason I did a mock draft yesterday on Yahoo and McCoy was still there in the 9th...which seemed crazy at least given his value as a handcuff.
Tommy Collins
Footballguy
The issue is the amount of touches they will get. The offense will be great, but they do throw a lot. Andy Reid always has, and always will.
2018: 282 RB carries, 69 receptions | Total: 351
2017: 290 RB carries, 90 receptions | Total: 380
2016: 327 RB carries, 66 receptions | Total: 393
The offense has been declining in RB touches each year. You have to assume that some other positional player will get a handful of touches (Darwin Thompson for instance). Even if we cap that at 15 touches, that leaves 168 total touches off last year (with a 50/50 split for McCoy & Williams). Even with 120 carries and 40 receptions, that's putting a RB in RB3 territory for a 12 team league.
Unless the Chiefs heavily favor one of these guys, it's not very promising that they have standalone value unless one of them is not available or falls out of favor.
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Tommy Collins
Footballguy
duplicate post
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mnmplayer
Footballguy
The bolded could be said for most teams in a RBBC. Bottom line how does it shake out? If you think one of the RBs has more talent or will be in higher leverage situations then you can bet that a 50/50 split is improbable no matter what the HC says politically before the first game of the season. It might even start out that way, but injury/performance/luck/coaching will have one of these guys take over 2/3 of the share most likely. 230ish touches is more than flex worthy and that is using the lowest data point you threw out there and 260+ touches is a real possibility.
Shutout
Footballguy
I don't think it is wise to base a decision entirely on pre-season. A young guy, sometimes. A veteran that has nothing to prove, seldom.Craig_MiamiFL said:
I mean, come on, If you are a bank president, the pre-season would be the equivalent of asking the to go out to the lobby desk and count a drawer in. How much effort is that going to garner and, frankly, why is it even being asked? Pre-season is a high-gamble risk with no reward for the NFL. If there are three possible outcomes to players playing in the Pre-season, at least two of those outcomes are bad. It is an outdated money grab and it is not the tool it used to be. The inter-squad practices are where its at now and we don't see that for the most part.
Shutout
Footballguy
I think you can chalk that up to familiarity with the coach and the system for the most part and a connection with the coach and the GM that was responsible for drafting him. Sometimes you just know. It's like if you won a car and the dealers were all calling you to offer you theirs--maybe there is something out there better than the BMW M6 you were just offered but, then again, in a world of used Chevy Cavaliers out there, you feel okay enough to say "this works".KingPrawn said:
-jb-
Footballguy
LawFitz
Footballguy
From McCoy himself, in no particular order -
- He loves Andy they have been scheming a reunion for years
- He wants to win a championship, and loves the other pieces of this offense
- He wants to be closer in physical proximity to his 7-yr-old son who lives in Philly (a big reason why he chose KC over LAC)
- State income tax is 50% lower in MO than CA
- Though he plans to compete for a major role, he's okay with a lesser one if that's what's best for the team
- Looks forward to not being the focal point of the defense all the time
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBsLioLTbFA
bostonfred
Footballguy
If you've built your whole premise on Williams being a "jag", you might want to consider whether the other guys are "jags" too.SCT said:
One of them is a 31 year old running back get cut by another team after his yarda per carry dropped by 1.4 and .8 in 2017 and 2018 respectively.
The other one just got pushed aside by that 31 year old cut victim.
And that's the guy people fell in love with after a handful of preseason carries, because he beat out another declining veteran who is now on his 5th team in 2 years.
It's not enough to say "Williams isn't that good" if the guys behind him aren't that good either.
There’s been tons of discussion in here about McCoy still having it. He only got cut because they had to pay him way more than gore or singletary. Time will tell.
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
Obviously there are 2 distinct camps here - those who drafted DWill and those who drafted Shady.
I feel strongly that if Shady was close to being in his prime that some team would have traded for him. A few disagree and said "everyone knew he was getting released" but I will counter that the Bills would have taken a 7th round pick in 2091. Why wouldn't a team like the Chargers give up a 7th round pick if they thought he were the missing piece and they want to win now. Same with the Chiefs. Letting him get to free agency means he can go anywhere so you can't be assured of landing him. Yes there was a small bidding war and yes teams are taking a chance that they can get some of the old Shady back but if they were so sure he was still a stud they would have made a deal. I think he can be successful and be a below average back skill wise in the Chief's offense. Will he get more touches than DWill - I have no idea but I don't see him as being a top 10 RB either. That's my opinion and I could be wrong but that is highly unlikely
. I will gladly admit that I am wrong because I would love to see the old Shady but I just don't see it happening.
I feel strongly that if Shady was close to being in his prime that some team would have traded for him. A few disagree and said "everyone knew he was getting released" but I will counter that the Bills would have taken a 7th round pick in 2091. Why wouldn't a team like the Chargers give up a 7th round pick if they thought he were the missing piece and they want to win now. Same with the Chiefs. Letting him get to free agency means he can go anywhere so you can't be assured of landing him. Yes there was a small bidding war and yes teams are taking a chance that they can get some of the old Shady back but if they were so sure he was still a stud they would have made a deal. I think he can be successful and be a below average back skill wise in the Chief's offense. Will he get more touches than DWill - I have no idea but I don't see him as being a top 10 RB either. That's my opinion and I could be wrong but that is highly unlikely
. I will gladly admit that I am wrong because I would love to see the old Shady but I just don't see it happening. VikingFrog
Footballguy
I didn’t get the memo either.
I drafted him in the 8th round because I thought I was getting a starting running back (on the Bills) as my RB4.
Chaka
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
need2know
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Spotrac has them at 6th with $28mil but I don't know how recently that was updated. Still plenty of money though.Yeah but the Bill's just suck
KC listed at 13th with $14mil, Chargers at 22nd with only $3.8mil.
need2know
Footballguy
LawFitz
Footballguy
You sure about that figure? I've seen elsewhere that he was due $9 mm this year in Buffalo. He's getting max $4 mm in KC. Where are you getting your info?
Not sure who is right, but $5 mm is plenty of reason not to trade for him, if I am. And that's with current knowledge of his market set price. For all we knew the cheap skates at LAC thought they'd be able to sign him for $2 mm before he actually hit the market.
Chaka
Footballguy
If I'm reading overthecap.com correctly it looks like he signed for $40 mil and got paid about $33 mil and there was still a $7 mil salary and cap hit for 2019 on the books.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
I just took Shady at 8.04 in an FFPC main event draft tonight. I didn't really plan to take him but that is crazy good upside there. I have called him washed up on these boards, but I also said that KC is about as good a landing spot as it gets. I was strong at RB already, but just couldn't pass him up there. I needed WR depth, and wanted to take MVS or Sutton, but.......
Cam, Trubisky
Carson, Montgomery, Ingram, McCoy, Breida, Mostert
Michael Thomas, OBJ, Moncrief, Crowder, Coutee, Preston Williams, JJAW
Andrews, Waller, Uzomah
Patriots/McManus
Cam, Trubisky
Carson, Montgomery, Ingram, McCoy, Breida, Mostert
Michael Thomas, OBJ, Moncrief, Crowder, Coutee, Preston Williams, JJAW
Andrews, Waller, Uzomah
Patriots/McManus
Biabreakable
Footballguy
People can have strong opinions about this without being invested in the players.Obviously there are 2 distinct camps here - those who drafted DWill and those who drafted Shady.
I feel strongly that if Shady was close to being in his prime that some team would have traded for him. A few disagree and said "everyone knew he was getting released" but I will counter that the Bills would have taken a 7th round pick in 2091. Why wouldn't a team like the Chargers give up a 7th round pick if they thought he were the missing piece and they want to win now. Same with the Chiefs. Letting him get to free agency means he can go anywhere so you can't be assured of landing him. Yes there was a small bidding war and yes teams are taking a chance that they can get some of the old Shady back but if they were so sure he was still a stud they would have made a deal. I think he can be successful and be a below average back skill wise in the Chief's offense. Will he get more touches than DWill - I have no idea but I don't see him as being a top 10 RB either. That's my opinion and I could be wrong but that is highly unlikely
Do you routinely pay for things that you know you can get for free?
You are right that teams could have traded the Bills something for McCoy if they were concerned about other teams doing that. However I believe that if a team traded for McCoy they would be on the hook for his contract. While the Chiefs did give McCoy $4 million for this season, that is still less than what the Bills were going to have to pay him if they didn't cut or trade him.
McCoy and Reid have a long standing relationship. They knew that McCoy was very likely to be cut because of salary cap considerations. Andy also know that McCoy would like to reunite with him. I am not saying there was any collusion here or a wink wink agreement, but McCoy and Reid know each other on a personal level and McCoys desires to reunite with him pretty clear.
So why would they need to trade a 7th round pick or anything for McCoy when they already had a very good sense that he will want to sign with them?
If another team traded for McCoy then they are on the hook for his previous contract. They all knew he would be cut if no trade and so a new deal could be struck.
If another team claims him off waivers its the same thing. They have to pick up his contract.
No McCoy is not in his prime anymore where he could command a higher salary like the contract the Bills just got out of. That does not mean he is a washed up though as you are suggesting based on there being no trade for his services.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Hard to miss all the many stories about McCoy being a cap casualty. I have been reading them since February.
YMMV
Chaka
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
I believe the contract is $3 mil guaranteed and $1 mil, I think, in incentives
I also believe his contract and cap number in Buffalo for 2019 was $7 mil.
According to overthecap.com
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Thanks.
The money is not really a big deal. Based on how teams use their draft picks, those don't seem to be a big deal either.
Teams care about what the players can do on in games. I think Reid has a pretty good idea of what McCoy is capable of doing.
bostonfred
Footballguy
If they thought he was really good they'd have been worried that another team would trade for him. They knew at least one team was on the market for a rb trade because they traded with them.
The Texans lost a running back, they did have the cap space and they did trade for a running back. And the chiefs knew all of this because they were talking. It's very possible that the Texans were also talking to buffalo during all of this.
The Texans weren't the only team who might be interested. Tampa seemed likely. The Patriots add good veterans all the time, love versatile older rbs, and just made a trade with the bills for a lineman. The 49ers just put McKinnon on IR. There were other potential suitos.
So we know some objective facts. We know that the chiefs didn't consider McCoy a bargain at 6 million and change because they didn't trade for him to make sure they got him. We know they liked him better than hyde because they traded hyde and added McCoy for basically the same money. And we. Know that they don't like him so much more than Williams that they'd start McCoy week 1. They might think McCoy was better, but we at least know it wasn't an emergency situation where they had to improve on Williams. We know that they ultimately paid McCourt almost the exact same money they were giving to hyde, and we know that they had previously planned to have jude behind Williams on the depth chart even after paying him that much. All of that gives us a rough idea of how they see him.
I've said since day 1 that hyde was a bad fit in kc. He isn't a scheme fit, he doesn't catch the ball well, he's a worse goal line back than Williams, and his numbers had been declining. But they signed him immediately when he became available despite better 'fits' being available, and planned to use him as their rb2. So they clearly wanted a veteran backup.
We know Veach called Williams a borderline starter when they first added him as their rb3 a year ago. We know they extended him immediately after he looked good last December. We know Williams was a 12 rush 5 catch guy while hyde was about 14 rush 4 catch. We know Williams has never carried the ball more than 85 times although they did give him 25 carries in one game, including two 4th and 1 carries in a playoff game, and watch him have an even better game the following week. We know they named Williams the starter after that, didn't draft a rb early, but did draft a back and sign another for depth. And we know that Williams has gotten first team reps after a brief hamstring injury, has looked good in practice, and looked as good as he could possibly have looked in his only preseason action. So we have a rough idea of how they viewed Williams.
It seems like they view Williams as a 12 rush 5 catch back, they want a veteran rb, they got a guy they're more comfortable with than hyde, they didn't prioritize a "better" back then hyde or McCoy and they didn't even prioritize McCoy that highly. We know McCoy dropped from 5.4 to 4.0 to 3.2 per carry at ages 28, 29 and 30, respectively, but that he also still looked good on a handful of preseason carries. And, again, we know that they didn't immediately name McCoy the starter.
All of that suggests that they see McCoy in a 1b/backup role. None of that suggests that they don't want Williams to get his 12 carries and 5 catches. I think people who hoped Williams might become a 15 carry guy might be disappointed, but they shouldn't be.
I think Williams will get 180 to 210 rushes and 50 plus receptions with 10 plus touchdowns, McCoy about 100 to 150 rushes and Thompson about 20 to 40, barring injuries. Those are wider ranges but i think it's fair - it's 320 to 420, while bthe chiefs have had over 400 rush attempts every season under Reid except last year with 387. And that leaves room for any of those backs to exceed my expectations.
So I'm still aggressively trying to add Williams and sell McCoy right now.
That is cash. His cap hit was due to be just over $9 mm (they are eating just under $3 mm in dead cap by releasing him).
shadrap
Footballguy
I assume you were in the 9-12 draft slot?
so: OBJ, Thomas, Monty, Carson, Ingram?
good draft!!
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Fred you have you mind made up.
I would just remind you that there is another side to each of these things you say we know that you are not talking about in your conclusion. I have pointed some of things out before but I guess they were not worth knowing.
We will know soon enough.
Good luck with your endeavors. I do not think you are reading the situation right but I can understand why you think what you do.
Banger
Footballguy
Being the #1 option on a terrible offense where the sole focus is stopping you vs. a situation where you are no better than option #4 (Mahomes, Hill, Kelce....) is night and day. McCoy at this stage no longer has the speed or talent to carry an offense himself like he did in the past (few rb's can) and I don't think there's much debate about that but he's not remotely walking into a situation like that. We've seen vets like Corey Dillon who at age 30 was "done" get a 2nd life when given a new opportunity in an upgraded situation and see this situation no differently.
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Chaka already addressed this but I was doing it from memory and saw the number was 6.something million. Sorry for the misstatement because it is actually closer to seven. So what's another million for an NFL player
. Someone in this thread wrote that the Chargers had a little less than $4 mil in cap space they couldn't have afforded trading for him unless they cut another player. So I guess the Clippers (think of them every time I see LAC) aren't that cheap after all. That was written tongue in cheek but thanks for clarifying that people can have opinions without being invested in players
.I don't have any links to this but read there was speculation that the Chiefs had inside info that he might be cut. Since Shady has a relationship with Reid I agree that it makes perfect sense they wouldn't trade for him knowing that he wanted to play there.
The Texans supposedly supposedly have over $30 mil in cap space so there is no excuse in them not taking on his nearly 7 mil contract and giving up a 7th round pick if they thought he could help the team.
That’s like going to a car lot and buying the $80,000 truck because it is technically possible for you to make it happen financially if you really want to. But then your brain thinks “well that’s crazy. I can get this $35,000 truck and it’s pretty nice too.” It’s foolish to think the salary wasn’t a factor for the bills. Do you think they cut him if they could keep him for 3?That was written tongue in cheek but thanks for clarifying that people can have opinions without being invested in players
I don't have any links to this but read there was speculation that the Chiefs had inside info that he might be cut. Since Shady has a relationship with Reid I agree that it makes perfect sense they wouldn't trade for him knowing that he wanted to play there.
The Texans supposedly supposedly have over $30 mil in cap space so there is no excuse in them not taking on his nearly 7 mil contract and giving up a 7th round pick if they thought he could help the team.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah the 9 spot. I took Thomas first and OBJ second. Carson 3 Monty 4 Ingram 5. I love the Saints FF playoff schedule.
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