Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Faust

Dynasty & Redraft: RB Jonathan Taylor, Colts

Recommended Posts

 

Quote

Miami Herald's Barry Jackson reports Dolphins running backs coach Eric Studesville worked with Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor at the Badgers' Pro Day.

Miami's makeshift backfield can't take all the blame as Football Outsiders ranked the Fins' O-line with the fewest Adjusted Line Yards (3.17) last year, but there's a clear need to upgrade both units after Ryan Fitzpatrick led the way with a team-high 243 rushing yards. Ohio State's J.K. Dobbins, LSU's Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Georgia's D'Andre Swift, Florida State's Cam Akers, Utah's Zack Moss, and Taylor are among the possible Day 1 and 2 picks the Dolphins reportedly have interest in as they "hope to land a long-term running back in the first three rounds of the draft."

RELATED: 

Miami Dolphins

SOURCE: Barry Jackson on Twitter

Mar 11, 2020, 3:16 PM ET

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/2/2020 at 8:40 AM, Zyphros said:

I woke up with the realization I might have to make 2 separate rankings.  1 being how I view them, 1 being how the market views them.  Not sure which I would end up drafting from.  

If you are drafting from the consensus list over your own, you probably shouldn't be posting your's.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 3/2/2020 at 7:40 AM, Zyphros said:

I woke up with the realization I might have to make 2 separate rankings.  1 being how I view them, 1 being how the market views them.  Not sure which I would end up drafting from.  

I've been doing this for years. Sort of. I start with tiers based on ADP and I break the tiers into 2 columns. Basically the guys I would draft on the left and those I want to avoid on the right. In the spreadsheet I will highlight each tier with a color, starting with something kind of dark and taking that same color but a lighter shade as I move down the tiers.

Then I look at guys I would absolutely reach for or I consider undervalued.  and move them up to a higher tier, making them appear as a contrast to the darker colors. These are guys I'm targeting but also I know I can maybe get away with waiting for them. 

It's a far from perfect system, and I'm not explaining it very well, but after so long doing it this way successfully, I don't know how else I would do it. It is some kind of a frankenstein system between ADP and my own list.

ETA one big bonus to this is that my right column of players I'm avoiding can sometimes be so big relative to the names in that tier on my left side that I can easily see that I'm in the midst of an inflection point (during my redraft drafts) where I should probably target a different position that is top heavier in my left column. All that to say that I find it an incredibly useful tool during a draft. Scarcity becomes something you can easily see with your eyes instead of say intuition or gut. 

 

Edited by barackdhouse
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Catbird said:

If you are drafting from the consensus list over your own, you probably shouldn't be posting your's.

I'm not drafting from consensus I'm using it to gauge where I value players more than consensus

15 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I've been doing this for years. Sort of. I start with tiers based on ADP and I break the tiers into 2 columns. Basically the guys I would draft on the left and those I want to avoid on the right. In the spreadsheet I will highlight each tier with a color, starting with something kind of dark and taking that same color but a lighter shade as I move down the tiers.

Then I look at guys I would absolutely reach for or I consider undervalued.  and move them up to a higher tier, making them appear as a contrast to the darker colors. These are guys I'm targeting but also I know I can maybe get away with waiting for them. 

It's a far from perfect system, and I'm not explaining it very well, but after so long doing it this way successfully, I don't know how else I would do it. It is some kind of a frankenstein system between ADP and my own list.

ETA one big bonus to this is that my right column of players I'm avoiding can sometimes be so big relative to the names in that tier on my left side that I can easily see that I'm in the midst of an inflection point (during my redraft drafts) where I should probably target a different position that is top heavier in my left column. All that to say that I find it an incredibly useful tool during a draft. Scarcity becomes something you can easily see with your eyes instead of say intuition or gut. 

 

I move players up down 1 tier only based on 2 things after their initial talent evaluation, workouts and landing spot/draft capital.  They all eventually get sorted into the tiers based on that.  In the tier itself I generally have my favorites at the top.  The problem I've run into this year with my system is that my talent evaluation of Jonathan Taylor specifically was not as kind as someone like Swift or Akers.  I had them in the same tier but they were at 1 (Swift), 3 (Akers) and 4 (Taylor).  In comes the testing, Taylor beasted while Swift and Akers did pretty well.  According to my process Taylor is still my 1.03 (at the moment) but that's not what the fantasy community believes.  

If Taylor gets significantly more draft capital than Swift and Akers then that makes my choice for me but as of now Swift is my 1.01, Akers is my 1.02 and Taylor is my 1.03.  

Which leads me to market value.  Taylor holds more name value and seems to be consensus 1.01 in most places, and as the owner of the 1.01 I want my best player but I also want it to gain value.  That isn't as likely if I go Swift or Akers.  Normally I would trade down in that situation, but acquiring the pick you want to be at, I find that quite a challenge in most leagues.  And you usually give up value because of it.  Again not ideal.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

I'm not drafting from consensus I'm using it to gauge where I value players more than consensus

I move players up down 1 tier only based on 2 things after their initial talent evaluation, workouts and landing spot/draft capital.  They all eventually get sorted into the tiers based on that.  In the tier itself I generally have my favorites at the top.  The problem I've run into this year with my system is that my talent evaluation of Jonathan Taylor specifically was not as kind as someone like Swift or Akers.  I had them in the same tier but they were at 1 (Swift), 3 (Akers) and 4 (Taylor).  In comes the testing, Taylor beasted while Swift and Akers did pretty well.  According to my process Taylor is still my 1.03 (at the moment) but that's not what the fantasy community believes.  

If Taylor gets significantly more draft capital than Swift and Akers then that makes my choice for me but as of now Swift is my 1.01, Akers is my 1.02 and Taylor is my 1.03.  

Which leads me to market value.  Taylor holds more name value and seems to be consensus 1.01 in most places, and as the owner of the 1.01 I want my best player but I also want it to gain value.  That isn't as likely if I go Swift or Akers.  Normally I would trade down in that situation, but acquiring the pick you want to be at, I find that quite a challenge in most leagues.  And you usually give up value because of it.  Again not ideal.  

I got a little over my skis here. I was only thinking redraft and somehow didn't realize I was in Taylor's thread.

As for how I go about rookies it's a bit different than what I described above. But same principle. There are definitely guys I won't want to draft but I will usually try to trade down or to flip whichever rookie I draft. I'm not opposed to reaching for my guys and I often do. But my roster makeup and draft strategy will be different from one dynasty to another.

I like Taylor a lot so I'm not worried about taking him at 1.01 (I acquired it in one league), but I have four 1.02s (also acquired not earned) and would love if someone like you wanted to take Swift at 1.01. That is today and can easily change depending on landing spots.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

I got a little over my skis here. I was only thinking redraft and somehow didn't realize I was in Taylor's thread.

As for how I go about rookies it's a bit different than what I described above. But same principle. There are definitely guys I won't want to draft but I will usually try to trade down or to flip whichever rookie I draft. I'm not opposed to reaching for my guys and I often do. But my roster makeup and draft strategy will be different from one dynasty to another.

I like Taylor a lot so I'm not worried about taking him at 1.01 (I acquired it in one league), but I have four 1.02s (also acquired not earned) and would love if someone like you wanted to take Swift at 1.01. That is today and can easily change depending on landing spots.

Why do you like Taylor > Swift?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

Why do you like Taylor > Swift?

I think he has a better chance of being special. I like his size, athleticism, production profile. But I do like Swift as well and if KC takes him it will be a very difficult choice at 1.01. 

But right now I am thinking Taylor is the consensus 1.01 and will stay there until proven otherwise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/29/2020 at 1:11 PM, Dr. Dan said:

Dynasty Blueprint Podcast: Jonathan Taylor

IMO a fair analysis of JT and pretty much where I stand. Garvin knows his stuff ....

Also, he points out how often JT was not in on 3rd downs for WI unless it was a designed quick dump off ....

Hes a great runner but what team he goes to will be big. In the podcast it's even mentioned that its likely wherever he goes theres a 3rd down backup rb who is excellent at catching the ball. That was interesting and if it happens it should add more clarity to rookie drafts

This is what I struggle with re Taylor. I have no questions about him as a runner. But I agree w Garvin’s take (I listened to the same podcast) that Taylor may be paired with a third down specialist. I play in ppr so that’s a big deal. I know there are many flaws with how PFF constructs data but they published an article a couple years back that suggests a target is worth 2.74 times as much as a carry in PPR leagues (and a reception is worth even more). 
 
Of course any of the top backs with more of a receiving profile — Swift, Dobbins, Akers — could also land in negative situations for ppr value. But (no matter what we think about the idea that Taylor can catch the ball) they all come in with more of an established reputation as 3 down backs. 

As you write, the draft will sort a lot of this out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Such a good spot for him.  I agree 1.02.  I don't like saying that either.  1.01 CEH and 1.02 Jonathan Taylor.  Don't like it one bit.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Taylor.......this kid is the real deal. I realize he has high milage. But he can have 3-4 elite years as a RB with the Colts.

 

He would be my 1.01 rookie pick. Perfect situation. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Really like the spot. I think second back in ppr, solid argument for 1.1 in standard.

Edited by DAG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like the landing spot too. You don’t trade up in the second to draft a RB so they must love him

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's kind of a poor man's Zeke situation. You don't have the draft capital (and the attending assumptions about building the offense around him) but it's tough to beat a great pure runner landing behind an elite offensive line.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1.01 in standard, 1.02 in PPR IMO.

Wouldn't fault someone taking him 1.01 in PPR though, with that O'line he could lead the league in rushing as a rookie.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rotoworld take:

Quote

Colts traded up with the Browns to select Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor with the No. 41 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

The Colts surrendered picks No. 44 and 160 to move up three spots. The most accomplished running back in this year's class, Taylor (5’10/226) eclipsed 1,975 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in each of his three seasons with the Badgers. He easily led the nation in runs that resulted in a first down (97) and/or 10-plus yards (61) in 2019, finishing his three-year career at Wisconsin ranked sixth on the FBS' all-time rushing list. His 96th-percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism pops on tape as he's noticeably able to get skinny between gaps, break through arm tackles, and leverage his 4.39 40-speed to out-run defenders to the house. His cement hands are on notice as he tied for the FBS lead in fumbles (6), additionally dropping an abysmal 8-of-50 career targets (per PFF). He did commit to becoming a better receiving back last offseason, tripling his reception total between his sophomore (8) and junior seasons (26). Taylor's three-down potential hinges on that pass-catching growth continuing. Taylor will be the heavy favorite to start over Marlon Mack on early downs, ending that experiment after Mack's pedestrian 2019. 

Apr 24, 2020, 7:47 PM ET

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I'm thinking 1.01, even in PPR. CEH will out-perform him this year, purely from the 50-60 receptions he'll likely see, but from year 2 I don't see it being close. I'd think Dobbins and Akers will surpass CEH too. Hard to predict how Swift fares.

From a Colts perspective, I think its a good fit too. Lessens the pressure on Rivers in a new system, allows the rookie WRs (counting Campbell here too, as he saw little time last year) to bed in. They'll be a run first first offense with a great o-line. I think this must have been planned, Colts picked up a FB last week for a reason.

And, as a Colts fan, I'm very pleased that we snagged him from the Jags, if that rumour is true. I couldn't bear to see JT shredding our D for the next 5 years.  

 

Edited by kerpow
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Marlon Mack gets no respect.  He has been productive.  That said, Jonathan Taylor better be beastly out of the gate, because Mack has been doing just fine.  Mack, not Kerryon Johnson is the biggest hurdle any of the consensus top 5 rookie backs have to face.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Nero said:

Marlon Mack gets no respect.  He has been productive.  That said, Jonathan Taylor better be beastly out of the gate, because Mack has been doing just fine.  Mack, not Kerryon Johnson is the biggest hurdle any of the consensus top 5 rookie backs have to face.  

Mack is ok. But Taylor has ability to be great.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the Colts calculated that if a mediocre back can perform so well in their scheme, think of what an elite back could do.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Nero said:

Marlon Mack gets no respect.  He has been productive.  That said, Jonathan Taylor better be beastly out of the gate, because Mack has been doing just fine.  Mack, not Kerryon Johnson is the biggest hurdle any of the consensus top 5 rookie backs have to face.  

Mack is a free agent after the season. Better to buy-in at a position before you need it.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Nero said:

Marlon Mack gets no respect.  He has been productive.  That said, Jonathan Taylor better be beastly out of the gate, because Mack has been doing just fine.  Mack, not Kerryon Johnson is the biggest hurdle any of the consensus top 5 rookie backs have to face.  

It's easy to be productive behind the best o-line in the league.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a Colts fan, I love this move. Mack will allow a split this year which will leave a bunch of tread on JT's tires for the years to come. I see Mack as a spot duty and strong 3rd down weapon this year. I think the Colts let him go when JT proves he's the man. Hines is a capable 3rd down option as well and will be cheaper to retain than Mack.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I think the Colts calculated that if a mediocre back can perform so well in their scheme, think of what an elite back could do.

We clearly disagree on whether Taylor is elite.  I can't deny that he has elite athleticism and great production in college, but when i watch him run I don't see an elite back.  I see someone who could put up an elite season or two if things fall into place for him.  I view him similarly to Jamal Lewis, Ricky Williams, and even Leonard Fournette who has been mediocre thus far.  A big season could be within reach, but its no guarantee that he will be more productive than Mack who is at the very least a top 20 back in the league.  It'll be interesting to see how their differing styles work in the Indy offense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mack barely squeaked over 1k yards, had only three 100+ yard games, and had six games where he averaged less than four ypc. He had an okay career at a mid level college and was a late, late fourth round pick. He's a good, not great player and will be an excellent #2 guy.

Taylor is a 2X Doak Walker Award winner and a 2X Unanimous first-team All-American. He's much more skilled than Mack. Much.

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, pizzatyme said:

As a Colts fan, I love this move. Mack will allow a split this year which will leave a bunch of tread on JT's tires for the years to come. I see Mack as a spot duty and strong 3rd down weapon this year. I think the Colts let him go when JT proves he's the man. Hines is a capable 3rd down option as well and will be cheaper to retain than Mack.

Mack does not catch the ball (40 career games, 52 career receptions). No third down for him. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It's easy to be productive behind the best o-line in the league.

Is this a knock on Taylor (Wisconsin #8), Swift (Georgia #2), or Dobbins (Ohio State #4)?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

it's a knock on mack

Ah, I misread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd take him 1.01 but I was high on him before he landed where he did. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Futeki said:

Is this a knock on Taylor (Wisconsin #8), Swift (Georgia #2), or Dobbins (Ohio State #4)?

I was saying Mack - who is a decent back - benefitted from the Colts line which is why he’s productive. They probably feel a much better talent in Taylor puts them in even better shape.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I was saying Mack - who is a decent back - benefitted from the Colts line which is why he’s productive. They probably feel a much better talent in Taylor puts them in even better shape.

It's not like Mack is going away in 2020, but as a Colts fan I love having both for next year.  After that he will test the FA waters.  He's only 24.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

It's not like Mack is going away in 2020, but as a Colts fan I love having both for next year.  After that he will test the FA waters.  He's only 24.

They could resign him- go back to your Aaron Jones argument. Taylor is a 2nd round rookie like Dillon. Still a reach in rd 1 but the situation is strikingly similar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

It's not like Mack is going away in 2020, but as a Colts fan I love having both for next year.  After that he will test the FA waters.  He's only 24.

Taylor is going to push Mack off the field pretty quickly imo. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

They could resign him- go back to your Aaron Jones argument. Taylor is a 2nd round rookie like Dillon. Still a reach in rd 1 but the situation is strikingly similar.

Except that Taylor > Dillon and Jones > Mack.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Milkman said:

Taylor is going to push Mack off the field pretty quickly imo. 

But he won't push HInes off the field. I think that caps his value @ 1.02

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ben & Jerry's said:

But he won't push HInes off the field. I think that caps his value @ 1.02

No he's pushing everybody off the field. Hines too. I mean you are more than welcome to disagree with me but Taylor is elite imo and will be a top 5-10 dynasty asset after this season. I'm all in on him. 

  • Like 1
  • Thinking 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Except that Taylor > Dillon and Jones > Mack.

GB had to have liked Dillon to use a 2nd rd pick. What we rank them is inconsequential. I think Dillon running vs 9 in the box every play and still gaming out is a pretty solid showing at BC. I’m old enough to remember when Trent Richardson was > the entire RB field. They are basically in the same situation- 2nd rd picks that have an incumbent rb that they need to overcome. Taylor likely gets starting reps to prove it, but as far as who gets resigned where, the landscape changes quickly. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Milkman said:

No he's pushing everybody off the field. Hines too. I mean you are more than welcome to disagree with me but Taylor is elite imo and will be a top 5-10 dynasty asset after this season. I'm all in on him. 

Elite runner IMO. I worry about his pass pro and passing game usage. Mack seemed like a better receiving threat coming out of college but rarely gets used in the passing game. I would say that I think Taylor has the best chance of the bunch to become elite but he is not without questions. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Marlon Mack's situation reminds me a lot of Chester Taylor the year the Vikings drafted AP.  I think this will pla out the same way.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Mister CIA said:

Marlon Mack's situation reminds me a lot of Chester Taylor the year the Vikings drafted AP.  I think this will pla out the same way.

AP was a top 5 pick though, just sayin.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Elite runner IMO. I worry about his pass pro and passing game usage. Mack seemed like a better receiving threat coming out of college but rarely gets used in the passing game. I would say that I think Taylor has the best chance of the bunch to become elite but he is not without questions. 

I hope he cures his fumbling issues.  That will get him off the field quicker than anything.

Edited by JohnnyU

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.