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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Jonathan Taylor, Colts

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46 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

AP was a top 5 pick though, just sayin.

Had Jonathan Taylor been a pro when AP was a rookie he'd be a high first rounder too.

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22 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Had Jonathan Taylor been a pro when AP was a rookie he'd be a high first rounder too.

Cmc, fournette, Jacobs, all modern nfl rbs that teams paid 1sts for. If A.J. Dillon came out back with AP then he’d be sought after as welI. 250 lb rb that runs a 4.5? Forget about it. There are backs that teams feel are worth taking early, Taylor didn’t make that cut. I like Taylor, , but production isn’t a given with any prospect. All I’m saying is that Taylor’s situation isn’t that different than dillons. There’s an incumbent drafted by the team that has produced. They drafted a new back in the 2nd rd. That back will have to work to show they can carry the load by themselves to hold dynasty value. Chester Taylor was decent but of course supplanted early by the top 5 guy. Mack and jones are decent but they stand a chance to retain some work. 

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11 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Cmc, fournette, Jacobs, all modern nfl rbs that teams paid 1sts for. If A.J. Dillon came out back with AP then he’d be sought after as welI. 250 lb rb that runs a 4.5? Forget about it. There are backs that teams feel are worth taking early, Taylor didn’t make that cut. I like Taylor, , but production isn’t a given with any prospect. All I’m saying is that Taylor’s situation isn’t that different than dillons. There’s an incumbent drafted by the team that has produced. They drafted a new back in the 2nd rd. That back will have to work to show they can carry the load by themselves to hold dynasty value. Chester Taylor was decent but of course supplanted early by the top 5 guy. Mack and jones are decent but they stand a chance to retain some work. 

Indy traded up into the early 2nd to draft Taylor. Very likely had a 1st round grade on him. 

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15 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Indy traded up into the early 2nd to draft Taylor. Very likely had a 1st round grade on him. 

If they had a first-round grade on him they likely wouldn't have gone Pittman Jr. at 34, who was their first second-round pick. 

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

If they had a first-round grade on him they likely wouldn't have gone Pittman Jr. at 34, who was their first second-round pick. 

Had a higher 1st round grade on him too I bet. 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Had a higher 1st round grade on him too I bet. 

That's why I said "likely," actually. But they picked who they picked. The only way to infer their draft grade would be if they used their picks to move up into the first, and they didn't do that, so all we're left is with guesswork from the value of the pick with which they chose him.

Edited by rockaction

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16 minutes ago, rockaction said:

If they had a first-round grade on him they likely wouldn't have gone Pittman Jr. at 34, who was their first second-round pick. 

I would have put WR as a bigger need at that moment.

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7 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

I would have put WR as a bigger need at that moment.

Agreed. I think there is also a clear delineation at WR after Pittman was taken. The next guys are injury concerns, speedster, more athlete than WR, weapon, etc. There is either a noticeable jump in risk or a poor fit for Indy with the next guys taken.

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Was watching some clips of him today and immediately though, 'This is Ryan Mathews 2.0.'

Jumped on NFL.com to see their scouting report, and they have Mathews as the comp player.

Really seems very similar. Rocked out frame with an unusual size/speed combo. Not stiff, but not a truly elusive back either.

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On 4/28/2020 at 2:21 PM, Snorkelson said:

Cmc, fournette, Jacobs, all modern nfl rbs that teams paid 1sts for. If A.J. Dillon came out back with AP then he’d be sought after as welI. 250 lb rb that runs a 4.5? Forget about it. There are backs that teams feel are worth taking early, Taylor didn’t make that cut. I like Taylor, , but production isn’t a given with any prospect. All I’m saying is that Taylor’s situation isn’t that different than dillons. There’s an incumbent drafted by the team that has produced. They drafted a new back in the 2nd rd. That back will have to work to show they can carry the load by themselves to hold dynasty value. Chester Taylor was decent but of course supplanted early by the top 5 guy. Mack and jones are decent but they stand a chance to retain some work. 

Your reasoning aside, the discrepancies between AP and Chester are the same as between Taylor and Mack. It's close between CEH and Taylor at 1.01, but 1.02 is a slam dunk.

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Posted (edited)
On 4/29/2020 at 8:13 PM, EBF said:

Was watching some clips of him today and immediately though, 'This is Ryan Mathews 2.0.'

Jumped on NFL.com to see their scouting report, and they have Mathews as the comp player.

Really seems very similar. Rocked out frame with an unusual size/speed combo. Not stiff, but not a truly elusive back either.

That’s pretty fair. Matthews flashed a lot of potential but just couldn’t stay healthy. If Taylor is  the healthy version of that, it’s very promising.

Edited by Ilov80s
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Quote

JONATHAN TAYLOR RB, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Colts coach Frank Reich envisions second-rounder Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack serving as a "one-two punch."

"It’s a grind, and when you run the ball as much as we run it, it’s really good to be able to change that up," Reich said. "I think their styles will really complement each other very well." Reich praised Mack's "vision" and "surge" before saying he hoped Taylor's speed can turn 10-yard runs into "50- and 60-yard gains." Mack failed to run away with lead-back duties in either 2018 or 2019. Reich can probably be believed that Mack will maintain a role, but Taylor will get every opportunity to earn 1A status. Nyheim Hines will remain involved as a pass catcher. 

RELATED: 

Marlon Mack

SOURCE: ESPN

May 3, 2020, 10:13 AM ET

 

 

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2020 NFL Draft: Five biggest instant impact rookies based on talent, fit and situation

Excerpt:

Quote

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts

Even with Marlon Mack --a big and talented back in his own right -- technically in front of him on the depth chart for the time being, Taylor landed in a luxurious situation with the Colts. 

Indianapolis finished 12th in yards per carry in 2019 -- 4.5 -- and had the same finish in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards, an advanced metric that assigns responsibility to an offensive line for rushing gains. 

The Colts have one of the best overall lines in the league and return all five starters from a season ago. 

Taylor was my RB1 in this class by a rather wide margin. He truly checked all the boxes. Vision, contact balance, dynamic cutting ability all in a 5-10, 226 frame with 4.39 speed. Goodness. Per PFF, Taylor forced a whopping 87 missed tackles in 2019, the third-best total among any back in college football with at least 100 carries. He also averaged 3.93 yards after contact in his final season at Wisconsin. Basically, Taylor is a boulder of a back running behind a rock-solid offensive line, and he possesses serious breakaway speed. For as much as I liked Mack when he came into the league in 2017 out of USF, Taylor is bound to erupt early as a rookie and ultimately take over starting duties in Indianapolis.

 

 

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1070 The Fan's Kevin Bowen projects Colts second-round RB Jonathan Taylor to average 15 carries per game.

"You don’t draft a running back No. 41 overall, and one that has the historic collegiate resume of Taylor, and not play him a lot in Year One" Bowen scribes. He also pens Taylor with 15 carries per game compared to Marlon Mack's 12 and Nyheim Hines' two. Coach Frank Reich has already confirmed he envisions the team's backfield as a "one-two punch," but the rookie does project to grab stranglehold of two-down duties sooner rather than later. It doesn't help that Mack, 24, is entering the final year of his contract.

RELATED: 

Marlon Mack

SOURCE: Kevin Bowen on Twitter

May 15, 2020, 10:28 AM ET

 

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I still can't believe my Colts got Jonathan Taylor.  I'm stoked. 

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49 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I still can't believe my Colts got Jonathan Taylor.  I'm stoked. 

I was upset with the pick as a diehard Colts fan.  I hope that Taylor is a stud for the next 5 or so years and the pick would be worth it.  I thought they could continue to build the defense and would be better use of the pick.  I hope I am wrong and he is a stud.  He has a great situation to excel in.

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Can someone remind me if the amount college carries impact the duration of career for NFL running backs? I thought there was some research on that but can’t seem to locate it.

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2 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Can someone remind me if the amount college carries impact the duration of career for NFL running backs? I thought there was some research on that but can’t seem to locate it.

I don't think that statistic is very useful giving the difference in RBs ability to stay healthy and luck / bad luck involved.  It seems to me bigger backs have a shorter shelf life than smaller RBs, but even that isn't something you can hang your hat on.  Same goes for RBs who initiate more contact than those who do not.  One thing I do know is that RBs don't last long in the N(ot)F(or)L(ong) on average because of the punishment they take.  Countless RBs with potential coming out of college has had their career cut short because of bad luck.  In fantasy you just draft and hope for good luck.  If a RB has lots of carries in college and came out of it unscathed, chalk that up to good luck and that could, or may not, continue in the NFL.  A RB can minimize, but not eliminate, injuries by the way they run.  RBs who run upright seem to have a greater chance at injuries, but not always.  Some RBs know when to go down and avoid bad body  positioning when they are tackled and some make that last effort for more yards when they shouldn't.  At the end of the day I think RB shelf life is more luck and genes than anything else.  Something we can't predict.

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On 5/30/2020 at 8:06 AM, JohnnyU said:

I don't think that statistic is very useful giving the difference in RBs ability to stay healthy and luck / bad luck involved.  It seems to me bigger backs have a shorter shelf life than smaller RBs, but even that isn't something you can hang your hat on.  Same goes for RBs who initiate more contact than those who do not.  One thing I do know is that RBs don't last long in the N(ot)F(or)L(ong) on average because of the punishment they take.  Countless RBs with potential coming out of college has had their career cut short because of bad luck.  In fantasy you just draft and hope for good luck.  If a RB has lots of carries in college and came out of it unscathed, chalk that up to good luck and that could, or may not, continue in the NFL.  A RB can minimize, but not eliminate, injuries by the way they run.  RBs who run upright seem to have a greater chance at injuries, but not always.  Some RBs know when to go down and avoid bad body  positioning when they are tackled and some make that last effort for more yards when they shouldn't.  At the end of the day I think RB shelf life is more luck and genes than anything else.  Something we can't predict.

:goodposting:

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I know I’ve seen some other studies on this and recall that there was little correlation between number of collegiate carries and NFL durability (that’s from memory though - if I recall high carries were more an indication of skill and durability). I did a quick search and ran across this  

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5405788/

 

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I'm torn on him.

Great talent at RB going to a team with a good situation.  I think Mack is a JAG, and if he can have 1,000 yards, I salivate at thinking what Taylor can do.  Rivers loves to dump off to RB's.  Main concern in the short term is the distribution of carries.  Mack is a pretty effective JAG.  Hines is a good pass catching back.  I think they keep his workload from getting stupid, but I also think the cream rises to the top.  Reich talked a few weeks ago about how Hines would be very involved and could have 10 catch games.  Coach speak gonna coach speak, but I do worry it hurts Taylor's targets substantially.

I think he had some fumbling issues in college?  That'll definitely set him back if that isn't corrected as well.  

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I think he's solid. It's going to take awhile though to dislodge Mack so you have to have patience.  Maybe even a year of patience.  

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10 minutes ago, killface said:

I think he's solid. It's going to take awhile though to dislodge Mack so you have to have patience.  Maybe even a year of patience.  

I wish this were the case (as a FF owner of Mack), but Taylor is clearly a better athlete than Mack.  Behind that OL Taylor is going to thrive.  

Mack was very solid behind that OL and I was disappointed as a Colts fan that they chose RB instead of other greater needs, but Taylor should replace Mack sooner rather than later.  I believe Taylor will be lead back starting week 1.

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7 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

This author has been writing about the Colts since Peyton was a rookie and yet this is a question?

Oy vey.

well the problem for me is that he is a rookie.  Much like most rookie scenarios you are probably going to see 6-8 weeks of Mack being primary (whatever that means).  If that's the case the season doesn't look as unbalanced as you might think.  Our league has a rule this year that if they get to 8 games in the nfl then our season stands.  Have to come out of the gate strong

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17 minutes ago, killface said:

well the problem for me is that he is a rookie.  Much like most rookie scenarios you are probably going to see 6-8 weeks of Mack being primary (whatever that means).  If that's the case the season doesn't look as unbalanced as you might think.  Our league has a rule this year that if they get to 8 games in the nfl then our season stands.  Have to come out of the gate strong

Yeah I dont think it will take long for Taylor to earn the most reps.

The author and coach have an interest in keeping Mack invested, as they do with all of their players.

In my opinion it's just coach speak though as I think Taylor is a much more talented player.

There is the additional risk of all players midding games. So even more reason to have contingency plans.

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Zak Keefer@zkeefer

Nick Sirianni on rookie RB Jonathan Taylor: "He's all in, and he's gonna work his butt off to live up to expectations." Still think Marlon Mack gets the lead role out of the backfield this year, but Taylor could be one of the most electrifying rookies in the league to watch.

12:50 PM · Jul 31, 2020

-------------------------------------

Everything I've read is he needs to improve his pass-pro which takes time so look for him to be ready to take over at the mid-point if we have a full season.  If not then who knows?  Its difficult enough to try and predict rookie development without a monkey wrench like Covid thrown into the mix.

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The Athletic's Zak Keefer wrote, "Jonathan Taylor is expected to share carries with starter Marlon Mack."

Zeefer continues by writing, "don’t be surprised if the rookie has a few breakout games and Reich stays with him." It's the consensus projection for this backfield; Mack and Taylor will split carries initially, but Taylor can become the clear-cut starter if he lives up to his draft profile. For three years at Wisconsin, Taylor showed high-end rushing ability and proceeded to light up the NFL Combine with 4.39 speed. In a vacuum, Taylor is a higher ceiling player than Mack, who is in the final year of his rookie contract. By the second half of the 2020 season, it'd be surprising if Taylor wasn't seeing 15-plus touches weekly. Reaching for Taylor in redraft fantasy leagues is risky because Taylor may not secure passing-down work, but he's a fine pick late in the fourth round.

RELATED: 

Marlon Mack

SOURCE: The Athletic

Aug 9, 2020, 5:32 PM ET

 

 

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50 minutes ago, Faust said:

 

The Athletic's Zak Keefer wrote, "Jonathan Taylor is expected to share carries with starter Marlon Mack."

Zeefer continues by writing, "don’t be surprised if the rookie has a few breakout games and Reich stays with him." It's the consensus projection for this backfield; Mack and Taylor will split carries initially, but Taylor can become the clear-cut starter if he lives up to his draft profile. For three years at Wisconsin, Taylor showed high-end rushing ability and proceeded to light up the NFL Combine with 4.39 speed. In a vacuum, Taylor is a higher ceiling player than Mack, who is in the final year of his rookie contract. By the second half of the 2020 season, it'd be surprising if Taylor wasn't seeing 15-plus touches weekly. Reaching for Taylor in redraft fantasy leagues is risky because Taylor may not secure passing-down work, but he's a fine pick late in the fourth round.

RELATED: 

Marlon Mack

SOURCE: The Athletic

Aug 9, 2020, 5:32 PM ET

I don't think anyone would be surprised by a committee approach for 2020 (if there is a 2020), but we all know that won't be the case starting in 2021 and possibly even late 2020.

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Twitter thread that goes over the differences in chance for success between Taylor and CEH, a focus on CEH, but I didn’t want to trigger the CEH hopefuls. Good info for those debating 1.01
Interesting read for stat heads. Not an interesting read for the “eye test” guys

Taylor: 98% chance for success 

CEH: 50% chance

Edited by Johnny B. Goode

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