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History, Math and the 2019 Saints, Rams, and Chiefs (1 Viewer)

Anarchy99

Anarchy99

Footballguy
It being that time of year, I have seen a lot of predictions out there projecting the Super Bowl participants to be the Chiefs against either the Rams or Saints. (Yes, I have seen others, but I wanted to focus on these three teams.) History and regression would indicate that all three of those teams have an uphill climb to get to the Super Bowl. And yes, I will show my work.

CATEGORY 1: Teams That Won 13 Games In A Year
Since the advent of free agency and the salary cap era (which coincidentally is the past 25 years), here is a chart of ALL NFL teams that have won at least 13 games in a season. The chart includes the year, the team, the number of wins in that season, the number of wins in the following season, and how that team fared in the season AFTER winning 13 games. For those with short memories, the Rams and Saints each won 13 games last year.

2017 MIN 13 8.5 None
2017 NEP 13 11 W - SB
2017 PHI 13 9 L - Div
2017 PIT 13 9.5 None
2016 NEP 14 13 L - SB
2016 DAL 13 9 None
2015 CAR 15 6 None
2015 ARI 13 7.5 None
2013 DEN 13 12 L - Div
2013 SEA 13 12 L - SB
2012 ATL 13 4 None
2012 DEN 13 13 L - SB
2011 GBP 15 11 L - Div
2011 NEP 13 12 L - AFC
2011 NOS 13 7 None
2011 SFO 13 11.5 L - SB
2010 NEP 14 13 L - SB
2010 ATL 13 10 L - WC
2009 IND 14 10 L - WC
2009 LAC 13 9 None
2009 NOS 13 11 L - WC
2008 TEN 13 8 None
2007 NEP 16 11 None
2007 DAL 13 9 None
2007 GBP 13 6 None
2007 IND 13 12 L - WC
2006 LAC 14 11 L - AFC
2006 BAL 13 5 None
2006 CHI 13 7 None
2005 IND 14 12 W - SB
2005 DEN 13 9 None
2005 SEA 13 9 L - Div
2004 PIT 15 11 W - SB
2004 NEP 14 10 L - Div
2004 PHI 13 6 None
2003 NEP 14 14 W - SB
2003 KCC 13 7 None
2001 LAR 14 7 None
2001 CHI 13 4 None
2001 PIT 13 10.5 L - Div
2000 TEN 13 7 None
1999 JAC 14 7 None
1999 IND 13 10 L - WC
1999 LAR 13 10 L - WC
1999 TEN 13 13 L - Div
1998 MIN 15 10 L - Div
1998 ATL 14 5 None
1998 DEN 14 6 None
1997 GBP 13 11 L - WC
1997 KCC 13 7 None
1997 SFO 13 12 L - Div
1996 DEN 13 12 W - SB
1996 GBP 13 13 L - SB
1995 KCC 13 9 None
1994 SFO 13 11 L - Div


- The average win total dropped from 13.4 wins the first year to 9.46 wins the year after (a drop off of 3.94 wins).
- 10.9% of the teams won at least 13 games the season after winning 13 games.
- No team that won at least 13 games won more games the following season.
- 47.3% of teams that won 13 games the first year failed to win 10 or more games the following year.
- 54.5% of teams made the playoffs the year after securing 13 wins.
- 23.6% advanced to the conference championship game the season after winning 13 games.
- 20% teams that won 13 games made it to the Super Bowl the following year.
- 5 teams (9.1%) that won 13 games in Year 1 went on to win the SB in Year 2.

CATEGORY 2: Teams That Scored 500 Or More Points In A Season
Again looking only at teams from the past 25 years, here were all the teams that scored at least 500 points in a season and how they fared the season after (not including the 2018 Chiefs, Rams, and Saints, each of whom scored over 500 points). The chart shows the year, team, win total in the year scoring 500 points, win total the season after scoring 500 points, points scored the first year, points scored the following year, playoff outcome the 500 point season, playoff outcome the following season.

2016 ATL 11 10 540 353 L - SB L - Div
2015 CAR 15 6 500 369 L - SB None
2013 DEN 13 12 606 482 L - SB L - Div
2012 NEP 12 12 557 444 L - AFC L - AFC
2011 NEP 13 12 513 557 L - SB L - AFC
2011 NOS 13 7 547 461 L - Div None
2011 GBP 15 11 560 433 L - Div L - Div
2010 NEP 14 13 518 513 L - Div L - SB
2009 NOS 13 11 510 384 W - SB L - WC
2007 NEP 16 11 589 410 L - SB None
2004 IND 12 14 522 439 L - Div L - Div
2001 LAR 14 7 503 316 L - SB None
2000 LAR 10 14 540 503 L - WC L - SB
1999 LAR 13 10 526 540 W - SB L - WC
1998 MIN 15 10 556 399 L - NFC L - Div
1998 DEN 14 6 501 314 W - SB None
1994 SFO 13 11 505 457 W - SB L - Div


- The average win total scoring 500 points (not counting last year's teams) was 13.29. The average win total the following year was 10.4, a drop off of 2.89 wins.
- Including the 3 teams from last year, the last 11 teams to score at least 500 points did not win the Super Bowl.
- Looking only at the past 19 seasons, only 1 team out of the last 16 teams to score 500 or more points went on to win the Super Bowl.
- Of the 17 teams that scored 500 points, no team went on to win the Super Bowl the following year. Only 2 (11.7%) made it to the Super Bowl.
- 70.6% of teams made the playoffs after scoring 500 points. 29.4% missed the playoffs. 23.5% advanced to the conference championship.

ADDITIONAL:
- Since 1937, the Rams have never had back-to-back seasons with at least 12 wins. They have never won at least 11 games three seasons in a row.
- Since 1967, the Saints have never had back-to-back seasons with at least 12 wins. They have won 11 games in three consecutive seasons once.
- Since 1960, the Chiefs have never had back-to-back seasons with at least 12 wins.  They have never had 10+ wins in 5 consecutive seasons.

That's what the numbers show. Considering all of that, convince me that things will be different for the 2019 Chiefs, Rams, and Saints and they will not fall victim to the huge majority of teams with similar accomplishments for the past 25 years. I am sure people could point to individual teams and explain the outcomes. Players retire, players get hurt, etc. But the numbers are the numbers.

All I am showing are the results of other teams. That doesn't mean these teams automatically will meet with similar outcomes . . . only that's what has happened in the past. Or as the saying goes, prior results are not indicative of future outcomes.

What do people see on the horizon for these three teams? I would guess that most people will suggest they are on par and will do as well as last year . . .
 

 
Anarchy99 said:
Since 1967, the Saints have never had back-to-back seasons with at least 12 wins. They have won 11 games in three consecutive seasons once.
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Just an asterisk here. 2012 involved suspensions of the head coach, assistant HC, 2 of the best defensive players, and loss of the defensive coordinator. The Saints were in a 5 year window and starting 2017 they appear to have entered another, pending whatever happens with Brees.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Since 1937, the Rams have never had back-to-back seasons with at least 12 wins. They have never won at least 11 games three seasons in a row.
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This gets an asterisk too. 1973-80 the Rams won the NFCW every year but one in which they finished 2nd.  Those included three 10-4 seasons.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
This gets an asterisk too. 1973-80 the Rams won the NFCW every year but one in which they finished 2nd.  Those included three 10-4 seasons.
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Clearly it would have been a lot harder to win 12 games when they only played 14 games. Like I said, people will be able to find chinks in the armor and point to fuzzy math or explain away what happened. There may very well be rational explanations as to why what happened happened. That being said, in this era of football, it will usually takes 12 wins to earn a bye, and most of the time it is hard to win on the road in the post season. Pointing at the questionable elements from years ago gets away from the big picture from the past 25 years.

 
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My initial thought on this is to fade the Rams (at least in fantasy for sure).

I don't believe in their QB as a historical talent.  They have decent skill players, but not amazing (assuming Gurley not his full self).  I believe in McVay in general, but you have to figure that teams have some tape on him now and will make adjustments.

I think that the Chiefs have the best chance to repeat this performance given the possibility that Mahomes is a historical talent.  Plus Reid has obviously been around forever, so it's not like people don't know what to expect, although he has a track record of continuing to add new wrinkles to mitigate that concern.

Saints are somewhere in between.  Really all hinges on how much Brees is falling off.  Payton is a great offensive coach and AK and Thomas are top 5 at their positions.  If Brees really drops, though, then it will be hard to get it all to work.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
so basically all you need to do to get back to 13-ish wins again is to have Brady, Manning, Elway or Favre (or of course the legendary Jeff Fisher)...
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Sort of. Brady and Manning were the king of 12+ win teams. Elway and Favre did it . . . just not with regularity. Elway won 12 games 4 times in 16 seasons. Favre won 12 games 6 times in 19 seasons.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Clearly it would have been a lot harder to win 12 games when they only played 14 games. Like I said, people will be able to find ***** in the armor and point to fuzzy math or explain away what happened. There may very well be rational explanations as to why what happened happened. That being said, in this era of football, it will usually takes 12 wins to earn a bye, and most of the time it is hard to win on the road in the post season. Pointing at the questionable elements from years ago gets away from the big picture from the past 25 years.
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i think it's a good exercise.  I generally believe that about 25 teams have a base range of outcomes of 6-10 to 10-6 and only slight variations will mean the difference in those records.  3 or 4 teams will be legitimately terrible and 3-4 will be legitimately great.  So 13 wins is absolutely a statistical anomaly in general, thus repeating it is very difficult.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
My initial thought on this is to fade the Rams (at least in fantasy for sure).

I don't believe in their QB as a historical talent.  They have decent skill players, but not amazing (assuming Gurley not his full self).  I believe in McVay in general, but you have to figure that teams have some tape on him now and will make adjustments.

I think that the Chiefs have the best chance to repeat this performance given the possibility that Mahomes is a historical talent.  Plus Reid has obviously been around forever, so it's not like people don't know what to expect, although he has a track record of continuing to add new wrinkles to mitigate that concern.

Saints are somewhere in between.  Really all hinges on how much Brees is falling off.  Payton is a great offensive coach and AK and Thomas are top 5 at their positions.  If Brees really drops, though, then it will be hard to get it all to work.
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Embedded in the outcomes are a lot of factors. These include and are not limited to: QB / skill position players / OL injuries, harder schedule, defensive coordinators do a better job scheming, the ball bounces differently this year, other teams play keep away and keep the opponent's offense off the field as much as possible, changes in turnover margin, etc.

I would agree that having a top QB is the main ingredient to getting either 13 wins or 500 points, however. How repeatable either one is is open for debate.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Sort of. Brady and Manning were the king of 12+ win teams. Elway and Favre did it . . . just not with regularity. Elway won 12 games 4 times in 16 seasons. Favre won 12 games 6 times in 19 seasons.
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i hear you.  just started going down the list and noticed Brady and Manning everywhere, then got to the bottom and noticed 2 other top 10 QBs of all-time in mix also...

 
Long Ball Larry said:
I don't believe in their QB as a historical talent.  They have decent skill players, but not amazing (assuming Gurley not his full self).  I believe in McVay in general, but you have to figure that teams have some tape on him now and will make adjustments.
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need to look closer at those stats

 
Long Ball Larry said:
i hear you.  just started going down the list and noticed Brady and Manning everywhere, then got to the bottom and noticed 2 other top 10 QBs of all-time in mix also...
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Brees certainly qualifies as an all-time QB . . . and his teams have won 12 games four times in 17 seasons.

 
You kids & your fancy maths.

when I was a boy we had sticks and hoops! You hit the hoop with a stick and *zoom!*, off it went! 

And we chased the hoop & hit it with the stick again. And by god, we liked it!

OH how I yearn for the simple games again....sigh. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
You kids & your fancy maths.

when I was a boy we had sticks and hoops! You hit the hoop with a stick and *zoom!*, off it went! 

And we chased the hoop & hit it with the stick again. And by god, we liked it!

OH how I yearn for the simple games again....sigh. 
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Man, those were the days...

I remember drafting “Fats” McGee, the little nerdy kid at the end of the bench.  That was the year Long Tom Hawkins fell off his bike and wrecked his arm, forcing Fats into the game.  Boy couldn’t run, but man could he spin that hoop.  Even spun it right over Old Lady Brown’s fence once.

Won my fantasy hoops league by 50 that year.  

Back when we were still keeping score with crayon on the side Pop’s shed.

 
Saints *might* regress. Brees has been throwing wounded ducks in preseason, reminds me of Eli when all the talk of him 'losing his fastball' started circulating.and its real. 

Chiefs will regress on their brutal schedule, alone. and anyone having to play NE in late January, needs luck. A. Reid doesn't go to super bowls( only 1 time) and he doesnt win championships.he's possibly the worst postseason coach in the last 20 years.there's simply no way they go to the SB with NE hanging around,among others.oh, and they have one of the 5-7 worst defenses in the NFL in 2019. they're going to give up a ton of yardage, and they're going to lose time of posession battles on a consistent basis, the offense will be on the sidelines a lot more now. They're going to have to be hyper efficient to come anywhere close to 2018 stats - hence, a serious regression is coming. 

Rams have a very real shot to go back to the SB and a very real shot to outproduce last year's totals/stats. Kupp is back. Goff has one more year in the system. Perhaps Gurley is 'back'. Goff is a legit stud QB his stats are off the charts.

 
Chiefs will regress on their brutal schedule, alone. and anyone having to play NE in late January, needs luck. A. Reid doesn't go to super bowls( only 1 time) and he doesnt win championships.he's possibly the worst postseason coach in the last 20 years.there's simply no way they go to the SB with NE hanging around,among others.oh, and they have one of the 5-7 worst defenses in the NFL in 2019. they're going to give up a ton of yardage, and they're going to lose time of posession battles on a consistent basis, the offense will be on the sidelines a lot more now. They're going to have to be hyper efficient to come anywhere close to 2018 stats - hence, a serious regression is coming. 
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I disagree with much of this.

1. A schedule is only as hard as the team that shows up against you. Chiefs offense made a lot of good defenses look bad last year.  

2. Hyperbole about Reid’s postseason failures means absolutely nothing in the context of this topic. Peyton Manning couldn’t win the big one either until he did.

3. New England has nothing to do with whether the Chiefs are good or not. 

4. “Bottom 5-7 defense”?  I put them closer to middle of the pack. Above average against the run, solid LB corps & decent DL. They’re a little weak in the secondary which should help lead to shootouts, which means 

5. They will he playing offense a lot. And they are “hyper efficient” (whatever that actually means) in addition to being one of the most creative offenses in the NFL. Mahomes just got 3 more weapons (at least) with Shady (excellent receiver), DThompson (I’m convinced he’ll have some role since Reid uses his players) and a healthy Watkins. Behind them is a young crop of talented receivers as well. Oh yeah, and he’s still got a home run waiting to happen with a Tyreek Hill. Just a disgusting embarrassment of riches. 

Obviously with an historic offensive season there’s reason to believe the Chiefs will regress, but as good as they’ve looked so far & as good as Mahomes & Co is, I certainly wouldn’t bet against them being even better than they were last year. 

 
Ilov80s said:
I think Brees has already regressed physically and the staff has been smart to shift to a more run heavy approach to compensate for it. 
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Harris and Michel can help win, white and Edelman work well with Brady's current strengths. Gronk would have of course.

 
-OZ- said:
Harris and Michel can help win, white and Edelman work well with Brady's current strengths. Gronk would have of course.
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Yep- the Pats have shifted their offense to take a lot of work off Brady as well. Gordon is likely to be the deep threat/threat over the middle of the field now. 

 
They had a discussion on the Chiefs offense on this very subject on Golic and Wingo this morning. It almost seems like someone there read this thread, as they rambled off very similar numbers.

Wingo pretty much laughed at the prior numbers and said Mahomes will set a new record for TD passes this year based on the following reasons . . . none of the prior teams were the Chiefs and had their weapons, no other team had Reid as an offensive mastermind, those other teams didn't have Mahomes at QB, and most of the other teams historically don't apply because of the current state / rules in the NFL. Basically, he said the Chiefs offense will put up even better numbers this year across the board (total points, yardage, passing TD's, etc.). Essentially, regression might be a thing for other teams, but the Chiefs are regression proof.

The other one I had to take with a grain of salt was Colin Cowherd. The other day he had a segment on what it meant for the league with Andrew Luck retiring. The part that raised my antenna up was when he mentioned he had Mahomes and the Chiefs going to SIX Super Bowls BEFORE Luck retired, and now he feels that total will be even higher than that. His opinion is that there is no one to stop the Chiefs from getting to the Super Bowl for years to come. The Chiefs / Mahomes love is getting over the top.

 
Regression to the mean is a real thing but there is another question that needs answering.  Of the teams that won 13 games, what was their record the year before?

 
TheAssassin said:
Regression to the mean is a real thing but there is another question that needs answering.  Of the teams that won 13 games, what was their record the year before?
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Here's the original chart with the pre-13 win season in the first column . . .

2017 MIN 8 13 8.5 None
2017 NEP 14 13 11 W - SB
2017 PHI 7 13 9 L - Div
2017 PIT 11 13 9.5 None
2016 NEP 12 14 13 L - SB
2016 DAL 4 13 9 None
2015 CAR 7 15 6 None
2015 ARI 11 13 7.5 None
2013 DEN 13 13 12 L - Div
2013 SEA 11 13 12 L - SB
2012 ATL 10 13 4 None
2012 DEN 8 13 13 L - SB
2011 GBP 10 15 11 L - Div
2011 NEP 14 13 12 L - AFC
2011 NOS 11 13 7 None
2011 SFO 6 13 11.5 L - SB
2010 NEP 10 14 13 L - SB
2010 ATL 9 13 10 L - WC
2009 IND 12 14 10 L - WC
2009 LAC 8 13 9 None
2009 NOS 8 13 11 L - WC
2008 TEN 10 13 8 None
2007 NEP 12 16 11 None
2007 DAL 9 13 9 None
2007 GBP 8 13 6 None
2007 IND 12 13 12 L - WC
2006 LAC 9 14 11 L - AFC
2006 BAL 6 13 5 None
2006 CHI 11 13 7 None
2005 IND 12 14 12 W - SB
2005 DEN 10 13 9 None
2005 SEA 9 13 9 L - Div
2004 PIT 6 15 11 W - SB
2004 NEP 14 14 10 L - Div
2004 PHI 12 13 6 None
2003 NEP 9 14 14 W - SB
2003 KCC 8 13 7 None
2001 LAR 10 14 7 None
2001 CHI 5 13 4 None
2001 PIT 9 13 10.5 L - Div
2000 TEN 13 13 7 None
1999 JAC 11 14 7 None
1999 IND 3 13 10 L - WC
1999 LAR 4 13 10 L - WC
1999 TEN 8 13 13 L - Div
1998 MIN 9 15 10 L - Div
1998 ATL 7 14 5 None
1998 DEN 12 14 6 None
1997 GBP 13 13 11 L - WC
1997 KCC 9 13 7 None
1997 SFO 12 13 12 L - Div
1996 DEN 8 13 12 W - SB
1996 GBP 11 13 13 L - SB
1995 KCC 9 13 9 None
1994 SFO 10 13 11 L - Div
9.53 13.4 9.46


Even though there were some radical swings from across the three seasons, the previous year and the following year averaged out to essentially the same win total. Both the 2018 Rams and Saints won 11 games in 2017 and 13 games in 2018. That would make the win total from the previous year an average of 9.58 wins. But it would be weak analysis to just say teams will revert back to the win total from the year before, as there are numerous situations where things didn't come close to that. The Patriots tended to influence the results, as they typically had a high win total both before and after (in addition to being on the list more than any other team). 

 
Saints regress a lot

Rams regress a little

Chiefs about the same, maybe a small step back but still dominant offense.

 
It is hard to argue against the math and the trends.   But I would argue for the Cheifs in this instance.  And the argument centers around talent.  WR core is one of the best in the league.   TE is great.  RBs are serviceable and now deep with adding McCoy.  Is Mahomes great?  We will see but I'm betting yes.  Rams and Saints have legitimate questions of health and ability at key positions.   Cheifs looking healthy, everyone returning, and still young and motivated.   

 
Great post, analysis, and insights.

Chiefs regress in games/stats because they have to, but not a lot. I think they face some tougher competition in the division with the Chargers being a solid team, and the Raiders and Broncos improving (though still not anywhere near a threat) -- as such, I can see them winning 11+ and still winning that division and heading to the playoffs.

Saints also regress in games and stats if only because Brees is older and less mobile/less arm strength -- we've seen them focus more on the run than the pass but they still have tons of weapons. That said, out of the three, can easily see them threatened that much more by ATL and CAR (if Cam stays healthy) and come in much lower in game total and potentially missing the playoffs as a result.

Rams are in the middle -- they, too, regress, but they don't need a world-beater in QB -- I think Goff is talented enough to manage his weapons. Only SEA is really a threat in their division, so I see them coming out on top and headed to the playoffs with a lower win total.

 
Hot Diggity Dog said:
It is hard to argue against the math and the trends.   But I would argue for the Cheifs in this instance.  And the argument centers around talent.  WR core is one of the best in the league.   TE is great.  RBs are serviceable and now deep with adding McCoy.  Is Mahomes great?  We will see but I'm betting yes.  Rams and Saints have legitimate questions of health and ability at key positions.   Cheifs looking healthy, everyone returning, and still young and motivated.   
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except for the d which still looks pretty atrocious

Plus, I like mahones, but there isn't something about him that i don't like and it's his overall accuracy.  he's still a guy that when he misses he tends to miss by a lot.  More tape this year, teams better prepared, i think there is a chance he falls pretty good.  That being said I think there is a better chance he is a generational talent...but only time will tell

a key injury on the oline and a couple of really hard sacks can change everything

 
killface said:
except for the d which still looks pretty atrocious

Plus, I like mahones, but there isn't something about him that i don't like and it's his overall accuracy.  he's still a guy that when he misses he tends to miss by a lot.  More tape this year, teams better prepared, i think there is a chance he falls pretty good.  That being said I think there is a better chance he is a generational talent...but only time will tell

a key injury on the oline and a couple of really hard sacks can change everything
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D was bad last year, which can actually be a plus for stats anyway.  what kind of lead would you need to feel safe with that defense?  Obviously nothing is a lock but barring a Mahomes injury I can see them having no more than a 10% decrease from last year stats wise.  Will it translate to as many wins, probably not but it  wouldn't be surprising if the the Cheifs won 13 either.

 
Hot Diggity Dog said:
D was bad last year, which can actually be a plus for stats anyway.  what kind of lead would you need to feel safe with that defense?  Obviously nothing is a lock but barring a Mahomes injury I can see them having no more than a 10% decrease from last year stats wise.  Will it translate to as many wins, probably not but it  wouldn't be surprising if the the Cheifs won 13 either.
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For the defense i'm not sure what the number is, obviously it depends on the team.  against the patriots i would say 30.  against the giants i would say 3

I think it's one of the more interesting story lines - what happens with mahones this year.  The league usually figures qbs out that are more gimmicky than talent (not that he doesn't have his own talents).  It's one thing to be aaron rodgers throwing rockets into tiny windows and it's another to be a mahones type of qb who just runs around in circles until someone gets open and then hits them with a throw that isn't all that great to begin with (i know i'm generalizing here but as i said earlier he has troubling accuracy issues).

 
Anarchy99 said:
It being that time of year, I have seen a lot of predictions out there projecting the Super Bowl participants to be the Chiefs against either the Rams or Saints. (Yes, I have seen others, but I wanted to focus on these three teams.) History and regression would indicate that all three of those teams have an uphill climb to get to the Super Bowl. And yes, I will show my work.

CATEGORY 1: Teams That Won 13 Games In A Year
Since the advent of free agency and the salary cap era (which coincidentally is the past 25 years), here is a chart of ALL NFL teams that have won at least 13 games in a season. The chart includes the year, the team, the number of wins in that season, the number of wins in the following season, and how that team fared in the season AFTER winning 13 games. For those with short memories, the Rams and Saints each won 13 games last year.

2017 MIN 13 8.5 None
2017 NEP 13 11 W - SB
2017 PHI 13 9 L - Div
2017 PIT 13 9.5 None
2016 NEP 14 13 L - SB
2016 DAL 13 9 None
2015 CAR 15 6 None
2015 ARI 13 7.5 None
2013 DEN 13 12 L - Div
2013 SEA 13 12 L - SB
2012 ATL 13 4 None
2012 DEN 13 13 L - SB
2011 GBP 15 11 L - Div
2011 NEP 13 12 L - AFC
2011 NOS 13 7 None
2011 SFO 13 11.5 L - SB
2010 NEP 14 13 L - SB
2010 ATL 13 10 L - WC
2009 IND 14 10 L - WC
2009 LAC 13 9 None
2009 NOS 13 11 L - WC
2008 TEN 13 8 None
2007 NEP 16 11 None
2007 DAL 13 9 None
2007 GBP 13 6 None
2007 IND 13 12 L - WC
2006 LAC 14 11 L - AFC
2006 BAL 13 5 None
2006 CHI 13 7 None
2005 IND 14 12 W - SB
2005 DEN 13 9 None
2005 SEA 13 9 L - Div
2004 PIT 15 11 W - SB
2004 NEP 14 10 L - Div
2004 PHI 13 6 None
2003 NEP 14 14 W - SB
2003 KCC 13 7 None
2001 LAR 14 7 None
2001 CHI 13 4 None
2001 PIT 13 10.5 L - Div
2000 TEN 13 7 None
1999 JAC 14 7 None
1999 IND 13 10 L - WC
1999 LAR 13 10 L - WC
1999 TEN 13 13 L - Div
1998 MIN 15 10 L - Div
1998 ATL 14 5 None
1998 DEN 14 6 None
1997 GBP 13 11 L - WC
1997 KCC 13 7 None
1997 SFO 13 12 L - Div
1996 DEN 13 12 W - SB
1996 GBP 13 13 L - SB
1995 KCC 13 9 None
1994 SFO 13 11 L - Div


- The average win total dropped from 13.4 wins the first year to 9.46 wins the year after (a drop off of 3.94 wins).
- 10.9% of the teams won at least 13 games the season after winning 13 games.
- No team that won at least 13 games won more games the following season.
- 47.3% of teams that won 13 games the first year failed to win 10 or more games the following year.
- 54.5% of teams made the playoffs the year after securing 13 wins.
- 23.6% advanced to the conference championship game the season after winning 13 games.
- 20% teams that won 13 games made it to the Super Bowl the following year.
- 5 teams (9.1%) that won 13 games in Year 1 went on to win the SB in Year 2.

CATEGORY 2: Teams That Scored 500 Or More Points In A Season
Again looking only at teams from the past 25 years, here were all the teams that scored at least 500 points in a season and how they fared the season after (not including the 2018 Chiefs, Rams, and Saints, each of whom scored over 500 points). The chart shows the year, team, win total in the year scoring 500 points, win total the season after scoring 500 points, points scored the first year, points scored the following year, playoff outcome the 500 point season, playoff outcome the following season.

2016 ATL 11 10 540 353 L - SB L - Div
2015 CAR 15 6 500 369 L - SB None
2013 DEN 13 12 606 482 L - SB L - Div
2012 NEP 12 12 557 444 L - AFC L - AFC
2011 NEP 13 12 513 557 L - SB L - AFC
2011 NOS 13 7 547 461 L - Div None
2011 GBP 15 11 560 433 L - Div L - Div
2010 NEP 14 13 518 513 L - Div L - SB
2009 NOS 13 11 510 384 W - SB L - WC
2007 NEP 16 11 589 410 L - SB None
2004 IND 12 14 522 439 L - Div L - Div
2001 LAR 14 7 503 316 L - SB None
2000 LAR 10 14 540 503 L - WC L - SB
1999 LAR 13 10 526 540 W - SB L - WC
1998 MIN 15 10 556 399 L - NFC L - Div
1998 DEN 14 6 501 314 W - SB None
1994 SFO 13 11 505 457 W - SB L - Div


- The average win total scoring 500 points (not counting last year's teams) was 13.29. The average win total the following year was 10.4, a drop off of 2.89 wins.
- Including the 3 teams from last year, the last 11 teams to score at least 500 points did not win the Super Bowl.
- Looking only at the past 19 seasons, only 1 team out of the last 16 teams to score 500 or more points went on to win the Super Bowl.
- Of the 17 teams that scored 500 points, no team went on to win the Super Bowl the following year. Only 2 (11.7%) made it to the Super Bowl.
- 70.6% of teams made the playoffs after scoring 500 points. 29.4% missed the playoffs. 23.5% advanced to the conference championship.

ADDITIONAL:
- Since 1937, the Rams have never had back-to-back seasons with at least 12 wins. They have never won at least 11 games three seasons in a row.
- Since 1967, the Saints have never had back-to-back seasons with at least 12 wins. They have won 11 games in three consecutive seasons once.
- Since 1960, the Chiefs have never had back-to-back seasons with at least 12 wins.  They have never had 10+ wins in 5 consecutive seasons.

That's what the numbers show. Considering all of that, convince me that things will be different for the 2019 Chiefs, Rams, and Saints and they will not fall victim to the huge majority of teams with similar accomplishments for the past 25 years. I am sure people could point to individual teams and explain the outcomes. Players retire, players get hurt, etc. But the numbers are the numbers.

All I am showing are the results of other teams. That doesn't mean these teams automatically will meet with similar outcomes . . . only that's what has happened in the past. Or as the saying goes, prior results are not indicative of future outcomes.

What do people see on the horizon for these three teams? I would guess that most people will suggest they are on par and will do as well as last year . . .
 
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recent rule changes make it so much easier to pass and protection of QBs/WRs (less injuries, more drives continuing because of defensive penalties).

Great discussion, but comparing today's game to some teams from 25 years is meaningless.

 
killface said:
For the defense i'm not sure what the number is, obviously it depends on the team.  against the patriots i would say 30.  against the giants i would say 3

I think it's one of the more interesting story lines - what happens with mahones this year.  The league usually figures qbs out that are more gimmicky than talent (not that he doesn't have his own talents).  It's one thing to be aaron rodgers throwing rockets into tiny windows and it's another to be a mahones type of qb who just runs around in circles until someone gets open and then hits them with a throw that isn't all that great to begin with (i know i'm generalizing here but as i said earlier he has troubling accuracy issues).
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definitely get what you're saying , but what mahomes does is a certain type of athleticism just as elite as the laser rocket arm in small windows , not as sustainable unless your name is Elway.  Mahomes is still young got talented receivers running around and fresh legs with no injuries.   Regular season is still gonna be Madden football for them.

 
Hot Diggity Dog said:
definitely get what you're saying , but what mahomes does is a certain type of athleticism just as elite as the laser rocket arm in small windows , not as sustainable unless your name is Elway.  Mahomes is still young got talented receivers running around and fresh legs with no injuries.   Regular season is still gonna be Madden football for them.
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It caught up to michael vick pretty fast after he set the world on fire

 
killface said:
It caught up to michael vick pretty fast after he set the world on fire
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I see Mahomes as a much better than Vick.  I can't conceive of Vick throwing 50 TDs.  Better coaching, better surrounding talent, and seemingly much better head.  good thing is we will find out. 

 
I see w/l as largely variable - how many games are decided by one crucial play that's statistically never going to happen again?

Points however are changing along with the rules.  Now along with not being able to hit a qb or defender, a coach will basically be able to get two free "pass interference penalty" flags a half which, if used correctly, are basically a field and momentum changer.  Tell me BB and Payton haven't already planned this out.  Reid hasn't, he's still learning how to throw the flag.

 
The Mahomes hate really seems to come out as QB envy by fans of teams that don’t have him in many of these posts...When it comes to Mahomes QB envy is a real thing and will be alive and well for the next 15 years....the kid is special and the eye ball test says he is the next historical talent.... sure the odds are there will be some regression but it should be minimal for a few more years....the chiefs are loaded and they will continue to surround him with speed and talent....Mahomes has lost 5 games....two them to Brady ....he’s an offsides call or coin flip away from already having his first SB....with one of the worse defenses in the league....if they get just a little better on defense which I think they did....10 -12 wins each year and byes and HFA I the playoffs seem pretty likely....Den has no QB and Rivers will be done soon....Carr scares nobody....Good chance KC has some NE like epic runs in the division.....they kind of already started it since 2016...threads like this pop up when people think something is about to come that we haven’t seen before.....its coming ....and those numbers from the previous years don’t have anything to do with it or will be able to stop it... :suds:

 
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Anarchy99 said:
The other one I had to take with a grain of salt was Colin Cowherd. The other day he had a segment on what it meant for the league with Andrew Luck retiring. The part that raised my antenna up was when he mentioned he had Mahomes and the Chiefs going to SIX Super Bowls BEFORE Luck retired, and now he feels that total will be even higher than that. His opinion is that there is no one to stop the Chiefs from getting to the Super Bowl for years to come. The Chiefs / Mahomes love is getting over the top.
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Perfect description of Cowherd's job in red. That's why he says that stuff.

 
Anarchy99 said:
They had a discussion on the Chiefs offense on this very subject on Golic and Wingo this morning. It almost seems like someone there read this thread, as they rambled off very similar numbers.

Wingo pretty much laughed at the prior numbers and said Mahomes will set a new record for TD passes this year based on the following reasons . . . none of the prior teams were the Chiefs and had their weapons, no other team had Reid as an offensive mastermind, those other teams didn't have Mahomes at QB, and most of the other teams historically don't apply because of the current state / rules in the NFL. Basically, he said the Chiefs offense will put up even better numbers this year across the board (total points, yardage, passing TD's, etc.). Essentially, regression might be a thing for other teams, but the Chiefs are regression proof.

The other one I had to take with a grain of salt was Colin Cowherd. The other day he had a segment on what it meant for the league with Andrew Luck retiring. The part that raised my antenna up was when he mentioned he had Mahomes and the Chiefs going to SIX Super Bowls BEFORE Luck retired, and now he feels that total will be even higher than that. His opinion is that there is no one to stop the Chiefs from getting to the Super Bowl for years to come. The Chiefs / Mahomes love is getting over the top.
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in his business you have to have hot takes....if he says 2-3 super bowls, thats pretty boring....but if you polled the general football public and said what QB has the best chance to get to 6 Super Bowls over the next 12 years or so give or take....he probably has the right guy.... :shrug:

 
Stinkin Ref said:
The Mahomes hate really seems to come out as QB envy by fans of teams that don’t have him in many of these posts...When it comes to Mahomes QB envy is a real thing and will be alive and well for the next 15 years....the kid is special and the eye ball test says he is the next historical talent.... sure the odds are there will be some regression but it should be minimal for a few more years....the chiefs are loaded and they will continue to surround him with speed and talent....Mahomes has lost 5 games....two them to Brady ....he’s an offsides call or coin flip away from already having his first SB....with one of the worse defenses in the league....if they get just a little better on defense which I think they did....10 -12 wins each year and byes and HFA I the playoffs seem pretty likely....Den has no QB and Rivers will be done soon....Carr scares nobody....Good chance KC has some NE like epic runs in the division.....they kind of already started it since 2016...threads like this pop up when people think something is about to come that we haven’t seen before.....its coming ....and those numbers from the previous years don’t have anything to do with it or will be able to stop it... :suds:
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One of the main downsides I see for the Chiefs is honestly an offense that is too efficient at times.

The reverse of them scoring early and often is that their defense is on the field a lot. So by the time the 4th quarter rolls along, yes - the offense is still fresh but their defense is gassed. 

In the AFC Championship game last year, the Chiefs had the ball on offense for 20:53. 

In their earlier Patriots loss last year they held it for 23:51

Seahawks loss: 24:58

Chargers loss: 26:44

Over the course of the year, they held the ball about 2:00 less than their opponent on average. So they have some great games where they held the ball a long while. But to me this is the elephant in the room for the Chiefs - they need to figure this out against better opponents.

Now, maybe a better defense gets them the ball more often with stops, which would obviously help. Will be interesting to see.

 
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killface said:
It caught up to michael vick pretty fast after he set the world on fire
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lol.....hopefully we really aren't comparing Vick to Mahomes....Vick never threw for more than 21 TD's....or 3304 yards in a season....

Mahomes had 22 by week 7....and 3628 by week 11...

 
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Stinkin Ref said:
lol.....hopefully we really aren't comparing Vick to Mahomes....Vick never threw for more than 21 TD's....or 3304 yards in a season....

Mahomes had 22 by week 7....and 3628 by week 11...
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I don't know if you are a youngster or not but it was  a different league then passing wise

Vick was difficult to stop when he was young.  And he had the same propensity as Mahones to miss badly on some throws.  I'm a mahones owner but for me I see some accuracy issues.

 
killface said:
I don't know if you are a youngster or not but it was  a different league then passing wise

Vick was difficult to stop when he was young.  And he had the same propensity as Mahones to miss badly on some throws.  I'm a mahones owner but for me I see some accuracy issues.
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im 50....I guess your right....if Mahomes was a little more accurate he would have had 60/6000....

IMO....two completely different QB's...

 
Stinkin Ref said:
im 50....I guess your right....if Mahomes was a little more accurate he would have had 60/6000....

IMO....two completely different QB's...
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Of course they are different, I'm not arguing that.  The similarities are only that they brought a very different unique style to the nfl that took some time for defenses to adjust too.  They both tended to make really wild inaccurate throws as well.  Throws you don't see rodgers and brady and manning make...

Newton is another guy that tends to miss really badly when he misses

 
For as much hype that there's been at the crazy increase in scoring in the NFL, things really haven't changed all that much in the last decade or so. Here was the average total points scored per team . . .

2018 - 373.5
2017 - 347.5
2016 - 364.4
2015 - 365
2014 - 361.4
2013 - 374.5
2012 - 364.1
2011 - 354.9
2010 - 352.6
2009 - 343.5
2008 - 352.5

That's a 21 point increase in 11 seasons (5%) . . . only 1.3 points per game per team. There were more total points scored in 2013 than 2018. Maybe the difference is the top scoring teams score way more than they used to and the weak offenses score less, so the range is way greater.

 
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