What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Could Jameis Winston be a league winner? (1 Viewer)

Saboo

Footballguy
Before you laugh at me take a look at the performance of the combined totals of the TB QB’s last season.

Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combined for a total of 5,288 passing yards (Pat Mahomes had 5,097 passing yards) on 624 attempts 36 passing td’s, 3 running td’s for a total of 39 td’s. Add to that a combined 433 yards rushing. On the downside they had a whopping 26 int’s between them. Still if you combined those numbers they would equal a top 5 fantasy qb.

Here are a few things Winston has in his favor.

- Winston has three legit big time weapons in Mike Evans, Chris Goodwin and O.J. Howard

- Has a huge upgrade with the hiring of Bruce Arians

- TB has a terrible defense and will be playing from behind early and often.

- TB has a below average running game.

I’m not suggesting that I trust Winston at all. In fact I think he’s a pretty bad real life qb, but the ingredients are absolutely there for him to have a breakout season if he can cut down on the turnovers and take Arians coaching. 

 
I like the call as an uber cheap QB option, but don't like that OL combined with Arians' offense. It could be a disaster in the making with the deep drops and late-breaking routes. Plus Arians is starting the season allowing Byron Leftwich to call the plays, so who knows how that will turn out.

Gotta be real careful projecting this offense based on last year. Players may be the same but everything else is wildly different.

 
Not sure about a league winner. I doubt he has a Mahomes 50 TD season but I think he's a very good value. He could certainly be a top 6 QB. 

 
Found him on waivers in one redraft league this weekend. I picked him up and have him starting. I got sniped a couple of times at QB and decided to wait until my final two picks to take a QB.

 
could be 

I have my doubts though 

There are some potential league winners out there that havent been talked about as much lately 

 
I’m in. Last year’s numbers, combined with three legit targets pits him squarely in the QB1 range. Otherwise two of Evans, Goodwin, and Howard are going to underwhelm as well. 

 
Week one and the staff has him ranked higher than Mahomes based on matchup. I personally think that’s nuts. Winston is just as likely to throw 4 picks and get yanked than he is to to throw 4 TDs. That said, I did get him as my backup.

 
I’m in. Last year’s numbers, combined with three legit targets pits him squarely in the QB1 range. Otherwise two of Evans, Goodwin, and Howard are going to underwhelm as well. 
I think its possible for Evans and Godwin to do well and for Winston to not be a league winner. Howard I do not believe will do well in this offense. I do not believe Arians as ever used one much before. 

 
I thought this same thought last year and drafted and started him.

There's an old saying in Tennessee—I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that says, 'Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.

 
Is he a good NFL QB? Maybe not. Is he a excellent fantasy QB?? I sure think so. They are going to be flinging it around all over.

You can't come on these boards and proclaim Evans as a WR1, Godwin as a WR2 and OJ as a top 5 TE and NOT have Winston in at least the top 10. Math does not work out.

 
Is he a good NFL QB? Maybe not. Is he a excellent fantasy QB?? I sure think so. They are going to be flinging it around all over.

You can't come on these boards and proclaim Evans as a WR1, Godwin as a WR2 and OJ as a top 5 TE and NOT have Winston in at least the top 10. Math does not work out.
I beg to differ. 35 TDs and 23 INTs may not equal a top 10 QB. Maybe it does, I doubt it; most top qbs seemed to be around 12 ints last year, so double that is 24 total points off. That was enough to drop you from 7th to 12th last season. And before you say 23 INTs is ridiculous, he throws 1.5 TDs per INT by his career averages. 

Furthermore, is a top 10 finish a league winner? When I hear league winner I think of Mahomes being a league winner last year. 

Is Winston pretty good value? Sure. League winner? Nah.  Were Dak Prescott or Jared Goff league winners last year? They finished top 10. 

We are having two different discussions here:

1. Is Winston a league winner?

2. Is Winston a bargain bin QB1 in fantasy?

If we stick to the OP I think we can have a consistent discussion. No, I dont think hes a league winner. Hes a great bargain if you want to wait on a qb 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Before you laugh at me take a look at the performance of the combined totals of the TB QB’s last season.

Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combined for a total of 5,288 passing yards (Pat Mahomes had 5,097 passing yards) on 624 attempts 36 passing td’s, 3 running td’s for a total of 39 td’s. Add to that a combined 433 yards rushing. On the downside they had a whopping 26 int’s between them. Still if you combined those numbers they would equal a top 5 fantasy qb.

Here are a few things Winston has in his favor.

- Winston has three legit big time weapons in Mike Evans, Chris Goodwin and O.J. Howard

- Has a huge upgrade with the hiring of Bruce Arians

- TB has a terrible defense and will be playing from behind early and often.

- TB has a below average running game.

I’m not suggesting that I trust Winston at all. In fact I think he’s a pretty bad real life qb, but the ingredients are absolutely there for him to have a breakout season if he can cut down on the turnovers and take Arians coaching. 
If you’re going to blatantly report Scott Barrett’s takes from Pro Football Focus, you might want to at least give him credit. 

 
Is he a good NFL QB? Maybe not. Is he a excellent fantasy QB?? I sure think so. They are going to be flinging it around all over.

You can't come on these boards and proclaim Evans as a WR1, Godwin as a WR2 and OJ as a top 5 TE and NOT have Winston in at least the top 10. Math does not work out.
I agree.  And I don’t.

 
If you’re going to blatantly report Scott Barrett’s takes from Pro Football Focus, you might want to at least give him credit. 
I literally have no idea who that is. I can assure you I didn’t read anything by Mr Barrett, but I will seek his article out now that you brought it up.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
If you’re going to blatantly report Scott Barrett’s takes from Pro Football Focus, you might want to at least give him credit. 
I literally have no idea who that is. I can assure you I didn’t read anything by Mr Barrett, but I will seek his article out now that you brought it up.
Nothing said in the OP is a very earth shattering take. Pretty obvious. And people pay for that stuff! :lol:

 
Nothing said in the OP is a very earth shattering take. Pretty obvious. And people pay for that stuff! :lol:
Exactly! 

This isn’t rocket science. I think I made some fairly obvious comments and simply combined the two Tampa QB’s numbers from last season and threw in a coaching change. 

 
Exactly! 

This isn’t rocket science. I think I made some fairly obvious comments and simply combined the two Tampa QB’s numbers from last season and threw in a coaching change. 
This is how I like to think when I look at stats when a guy is hurt or benched. instead of looking at how Winston did last year, look at how the "TB QB" did to give you a decent idea of what to expect

 
Winston's ADP is 105. He is flanked by 2 QBs at 103 and 112 (and maybe even 117) I would consider to be league winner candidates 

 
Week one and the staff has him ranked higher than Mahomes based on matchup. I personally think that’s nuts. Winston is just as likely to throw 4 picks and get yanked than he is to to throw 4 TDs. That said, I did get him as my backup.
No way he gets yanked.

I am as high on Winston as anyone, but only for fantasy.  He is not a good QB.  I think the yards will be there; it's the TD's that will determine how he finishes.

- Blake Bortles - 2015 - 4428/35 - QB4

 
I like the call as an uber cheap QB option, but don't like that OL combined with Arians' offense. It could be a disaster in the making with the deep drops and late-breaking routes. Plus Arians is starting the season allowing Byron Leftwich to call the plays, so who knows how that will turn out.

Gotta be real careful projecting this offense based on last year. Players may be the same but everything else is wildly different.
true. 

 
No way he gets yanked.

I am as high on Winston as anyone, but only for fantasy.  He is not a good QB.  I think the yards will be there; it's the TD's that will determine how he finishes.

- Blake Bortles - 2015 - 4428/35 - QB4
The result of the coaching changes remain to be seen. What you won't have to contend with this year is the above, TB toggling back and forth between Winston and Fitz. League winner is doubtful. I would expect Winston to string together a few weeks of top 10 fantasy numbers mixed in with a few week-losing performances.

 
Is he a good NFL QB? Maybe not. Is he a excellent fantasy QB?? I sure think so. They are going to be flinging it around all over.

You can't come on these boards and proclaim Evans as a WR1, Godwin as a WR2 and OJ as a top 5 TE and NOT have Winston in at least the top 10. Math does not work out.


No...he’s too inconsistent and makes too many bad mistakes.
These two in combination are what makes me avoid Winston. He definitely has talent, but we've seen this script before -- solid options in the receiving game and an offense that can support his kind of game, and Godwin is definitely stepping up, but he's had these options for a year or two and still Winston was not a reliable fantasy QB option.

It's his mistakes, INTs, inability to complete drives, etc. that takes away his upside -- INTs matter in fantasy, and his 26th-ranked completion percentage last year is pretty much standard.

You can have all the weapons in the world, with a promising offense, but if you can't execute, you are not an ideal candidate for fantasy (and NFL) success. 

 
Furthermore, is a top 10 finish a league winner?
One of my minor pet peeves is when players are seemingly overvalued for being "top X" at their position.  If you're in a 10- or 12-team league, as most people probably are, most teams in your league are going to have a "top 10 QB."  All "top 10" means is the guy is startable, but he might be one of the worst starters in your league.  In my 12-team league, when I think about tiers of players like "this guy's a QB1" or "this guy's a QB2", QB1 means one of the top 6 QBs, not one of the top 12 - otherwise by that definition, most teams in my league are starting a QB1 which makes it a relatively meaningless distinction.  /tangent

 
All of the negatives with Winston are baked into his low cost. Getting him that late and hitting paydirt not only with him, but with the players you took in the earlier rounds while other owners were taking the QBs in the higher tiers. I'm not banking on an elite season, and I suggest having a capable backup, but I love the price.

 
I've used him as a starting QB a lot over the last couple years and he's always disappointed.  He's way too inconsistent for me.

 
All of the negatives with Winston are baked into his low cost. Getting him that late and hitting paydirt not only with him, but with the players you took in the earlier rounds while other owners were taking the QBs in the higher tiers. I'm not banking on an elite season, and I suggest having a capable backup, but I love the price.
The week to week reality of navigating those negatives and "paydirt" is trying to figure out which games are throwing for 300+ and 4 TDs and which are throwing for 200 and two picks.

 
how do you have evans, godwin, brate and howard out there and you STILL cant complete passes?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
how do you have evans, godwin, brate and howard out there and you STILL cant complete passes?
He threw 2 TD passes to my SF defense. A great day overall. We dropped a couple of passes that hit our guys in the hands.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Top