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Survivor leagues 2019 (1 Viewer)

Zyphros

Footballguy
Who ya got for week 1?  I’m doing 2 survivors, 1 on FanDuel, the other on yahoo.  Both free.  

Eagles are probably chalk this week so that’s where I’m going.  Don’t get cute early on right? 

 
 I just put in Seattle on Fanduel. Anothe "not cute" option.

(Warning: I have a knack for picking the favorite that ends up being 1st upset of the season :lol: )

 
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Seattle for me.

Simple rules for me.  I try to play a home team with a favorable spread and try not to do division games

 
What worries me about the Bengals is that they looked rather good and balanced in preseason.  I think they could be a surprise team this year.  The only thing that throws salt in there is no AJ Green, but the rest of the team is rather solid.  

The only thing that worries me about the Eagles is like you said, it's divisional.  

 
I like the idea of playing the team playing the worst team.  You don't use up all the best teams but you still get a good matchup.  Ravens week1.

 
As much as I'd like to follow the Fins opp, BAL is on the road vs. MIA this week. While I still think BAL wins, I'd prefer to take a home team. 

Leaning Phi or SEA myself...but that could change

 
As of right now on Yahoo the 5 highest pick % is

Seahawks

Eagles

Chargers

Ravens

Browns

The 5 lowest pick % is (lowest % to highest of the worst)

Redskins 

Bengals

Texans (I'm shocked here actually)

Jaguars

Colts (again shocked)

 
Think I'm going with the Chargers.  Could very well backfire on me, but they're one of the bigger favorites this week, and for a team with a pretty high projected win total I don't see many better spots to use them later in the year. 

 
Don't think I'm going near the Chargers this week.  Have had some more injuries, O-line is meh, and I think Jacoby B is an unknown, I don't wanna bet against unknowns week 1, same reason I'll avoid the Cards for a little bit.  

Speaking of the Dolphins, check out week 14-17 for them:  Jets, Giants, Bengals, Pats.  I mean, you can easily see a scenario where you get to week 14 without using any of those teams.  

 
I like to follow trends.  I'm in three pools and taking Seattle and Detroit in the big pools, and Oakland (can buy back after week 1, for charity).

Seattle is 9-0 in home openers.

Seattle has never lost at home in September under Pete Carol.

Rookie QBs drafted #1 overall have lost their 1st start going back to 2002 (0-12).  

The prior 11 head coaches in Arizona have lost their first game.

Oakland has not lost a game since they released AB.

* Baker Mayfield became the first player since Fran Tarkenton in 1961 to come off the bench in his debut and lead his team to its first win of the season (week 3 vs NYJ) and lost the next game in OT in Oakland, the first start of his career.

 
So onto week 2 right?  

Eagles snuck one out for me.  Lots of Saints ones from this thread too that barely snuck it out too.  

Week 2 I'm considering 

Patriots (at Miami)

Cowboys (at Washington)

Texans (at home vs Jacksonville) 

I think Houston will be the popular choice, but Minshew ain't about to roll over.  Other 2 I'm considering are divisional and on the road.  Usually try and stay away from that.  

 
I'm going with Houston actually.  It makes too much sense.  Even though it's divisional.  

Top picks on Yahoo this week are Pats at 36% right now, Ravens at 21%, Houston in 3rd at 14%

 
And the second I post, I get a notification that Sam Darnold will be out this week.  Maybe the Browns are the easy play now?  

 
And the second I post, I get a notification that Sam Darnold will be out this week.  Maybe the Browns are the easy play now?  
Actually came in here to post just this. 

No Darnold, possibly no LevBell, Browns looking like a sneaky good pick this week

 
Going Carolina. I can't picture a more favorable matchup this season. It goes against my divisional rule but I feel like TB is just a straight up mess.

 
Going Houston for a few reasons:

1. Rookie QB starting for JAX

2. JJ seemed pissed they let Brees get that FG with :40 and hopefully gets the D fired up

3. If the line play doesn't improve, Watson may not survive long enough to use them later in the season.

4. I'd like to see how Baltimore plays against an actual NFL team before I pick them, potential pick week 6 hosting CIN (Although NE hosts NYG that week too)

 
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Really want to go NE this week but decided to go with Carolina tonight after looking ahead through about week 13. Others that had me thinking were Baltimore and Houston. 

 
Going Carolina tonight.  I don't like divisional games but I don't see me taking Carolina at any other point in the season.

Jacksonville has traditionally been a team that has knocked me out (either by winning or losing) so I usually try to stay away from their games.

 
My philosophy is to not save any team for later because you might not make it to later.  Take your best pick this week and worry about next week....next week.  Too many times I have seen people get cute and pick a marginal game because they want to save team X for week Y and then never make it. 

 
One of my big pools is double elimination and I'm told, from the pool organizer, that the Detroit tie does not count as a loss so I still have double elimination going on.  Has anyone experienced this before?  I've always played that a tie is a loser as you are picking the winner in a Survivor pool.  The two other pools treated both Detroit and Arizona as elimination teams.

Following the trends. Taking Baltimore and Houston in the big pools, and Denver (can buy back after weeks 1 & 2, for charity).

Baltimore is 20-2 at home in September.

Rookie QBs are 2-15 in Baltimore including playoffs.

Houston is 8-2 overall and 4-1 at home vs Jacksonville (both losses in 2017 when Jax made the divisional playoffs)

Jacksonville is 2-11 overall and 1-6 away.

Denver is 31-3, 15-1, 4-0 at home in weeks 1 and 2 since 1990.

Denver is 7-0 in home openers.

For those of you taking Carolina tonight - Jameis Winston has lost his last 12 starts on the road.  Conversely, Cam Newton has lost his last 7 starts overall.  

 
I think the strategy this year is to pick whoever is playing Miami.  They will legitimately challenge for worst team in NFL history.  

On the weeks they are playing a divisional foe for the second time, just hope there is another option out there.  

Dolphins go 0-16.  No doubt in my mind.

 
I survived both my Houston and Browns picks, so now we'll see which way of diversifying can last me the longest ha

So Dallas is the lock of the week for week 3 here?

Only thing that would concern me a little is no Gallup.  He seemed to open the offense up more having a great #2 WR for the team.  Can someone step up and fill the void so that Dallas can keep cruising on offense like they have been.  Either way I don't see Miami making this close but it is a legitimate worry about the Cowboys offense to me.  

Other nice plays I see this week

Packers at home against Broncos

Patriots at home against the Jets

I don't think you can go wrong with any of those picks.  Packers might be a hair too "cute" though. 

 
Caesar said:
I think the strategy this year is to pick whoever is playing Miami.  They will legitimately challenge for worst team in NFL history.  

On the weeks they are playing a divisional foe for the second time, just hope there is another option out there.  

Dolphins go 0-16.  No doubt in my mind.
When it comes down to it this is the correct way.  Only 3 weeks where you have to actually think about it.

 

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