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Survivor leagues 2019

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I thought PIT was average, not bad, and playing a home game where they care against a tanking team. Still some game to play :shrug:

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On 10/23/2019 at 1:19 PM, Leroy Hoard said:

Would hate to leave the dolphin haters bandwagon, but I could see a case for the Thursday game instead of the Monday game. Either way should be a fairly safe bet.

Either way was a winner but I trusted miami more to lose so that was my play.

Onward to next week.

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San Fran and Buffalo are the two top ones I have not played yet. Buffalo by a hair since SF would seem to be the better one to save.

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15 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

San Fran and Buffalo are the two top ones I have not played yet. Buffalo by a hair since SF would seem to be the better one to save.

These are the two plays I had scripted in for week 9 as well.

SF @ ARI 

or

WAS @ BUF

Or maybe CLE now that DEN has a new starting QB. Off chalk play? CLE @ DEN - sounds a bit risky.

NYJ @ MIA - Hmm another roll of the dice against MIA.

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Week 9 and 11 seem like the most difficult weeks with multiple games that should be wins but don’t feel like pure locks. Those teams also seem to have an equal or better matchup in week 11. 

Leaning SEA at home against TB for week 9 to use buff @ MIA week 11. 

Also like Buff at home vs Wash this week and going Rams at home vs CHI in week 11. 
 

SF at home vs ARI is nice this week too, I had already used them though. NYJ vs MIA maybe? I think the jets win this, but I can see them losing it too. Staying away from this game. 
 

(week 10 MIA @ Indy seems like a lock play already)

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59 minutes ago, jerseys finest said:

SF at home vs ARI is nice this week too, I had already used them though. NYJ vs MIA maybe? I think the jets win this, but I can see them losing it too. Staying away from this game. 

(week 10 MIA @ Indy seems like a lock play already)

SF on the road vs. AZ this week.  Still a very good play.  They play at home vs. AZ in a couple weeks.  I have them picked that week going with the Jets this week.  But I may change this...

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I realized I never use NO in my projections for this year. I guess they could be the week 16 slot @ TEN.

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13 minutes ago, C-Bound said:

SF on the road vs. AZ this week.  Still a very good play.  They play at home vs. AZ in a couple weeks.  I have them picked that week going with the Jets this week.  But I may change this...

Good call. Thanks for the fix. 

Dolphins played hard last night. Looked like an nfl team in the first half. Jets (and bengals) have also looked like borderline nfl teams. 
 

Neither team is playing for anything more than pride. the jets should win this game, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the dolphins won 

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12 minutes ago, jimmycperu said:

Any confidence in Carolina this week? Would like to save SF but for week 11

Feels like another game where they “should” win, but a loss wouldn’t surprise me. 

the tannehill led titans are a better team. Not a good team, but better. Playing hard. They have an above average defense. Still going against Kyle Allen. 

there are a couple of picks I think are slightly safer plays. Just thinking out loud here. 

SF, Buff, Sea stand out to me as teams that should dominate their opponent. <20% chance of upset.  

Car, Cle, Phi, GB, NYJ, Dal all look like they should win their respective games, but have weaknesses that could be exploited by their opponent. 20%-40% chance of upset. 

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Was hoping Mia would knock out almost 5800 people on Fanduel last night.  What sort of stinks about that contest is you cannot use the Thursday games.  My only real options this week are NYJ, CAR, CLE, and NE.  Not feeling very confident with any of them.

I have the most hesitation with that NYJ/MIA game especially if they move Bell.

There are some spots to use CLE when it starts getting rough late in the year.  They could lose an ugly low scoring game in DEN.

I think I messed up not using NE already with their cream puff schedule to start the year....I don't think they're super safe again until week 15.  

The main thing I don't like about CAR this week is TEN plays ugly games and gets ugly wins.  They are the only home team I listed though.

Thinking CLE or CAR at this point...

Edited by Bobcat10
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4 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

San Fran and Buffalo are the two top ones I have not played yet. Buffalo by a hair since SF would seem to be the better one to save.

Looks like I'm stuck on 49ers, forgot I already used Buffalo vs. Miami.

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1 minute ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Looks like I'm stuck on 49ers, forgot I already used Buffalo vs. Miami.

I saved Buffalo just for this week. Pretty easy call this week for those of us with the Bills left.

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I am in a pool that started with appx 8900 entries and is now down to appx 1400 (everyone moved on this week...first time I can remember that occurring).

If more than 50 entries after week 12, the pool goes to 2 picks/week, so additional layer of challenge when looking down the line.

Most likely choice for this week is SF (used BUF), with next option SEA vs TB. Anyone have any trepidation on SF? 

Reasons I can think of include

- Road game in division

- Getting a little full of themselves, reading the headlines, overlooking opponent

- Thursday night road team

Next logical time to utilize SEA is wk.16 vs. ARZ at home, so weighing value of keeping them for there, plus a double check for any input from others maybe doubting the SF pick.

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45 minutes ago, Bobcat10 said:

Was hoping Mia would knock out almost 5800 people on Fanduel last night.  What sort of stinks about that contest is you cannot use the Thursday games.  My only real options this week are NYJ, CAR, CLE, and NE.  Not feeling very confident with any of them.

I have the most hesitation with that NYJ/MIA game especially if they move Bell.

There are some spots to use CLE when it starts getting rough late in the year.  They could lose an ugly low scoring game in DEN.

I think I messed up not using NE already with their cream puff schedule to start they year....I don't think they're super safe again until week 15.  

The main thing I don't like about CAR this week is TEN plays ugly games and gets ugly wins.  They are the only home team I listed though.

Thinking CLE or CAR at this point...

When they went up 14-0 I felt the same way for the FanDuel contest! And then the dolphins were inevitably the dolphins 😞

i don’t think the jets move bell unless someone’s blows them away with a deal (looking at you Houston) I think the question here is, does Miami lose this game?

Of your two, I think I like Cleveland going up against a very unprepared QB (whoever they start) 

I feel the same way as you about the titans. They win ugly, but they can win. 

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19 minutes ago, Big Blue Wrecking Crew said:

Next logical time to utilize SEA is wk.16 vs. ARZ at home, so weighing value of keeping them for there, plus a double check for any input from others maybe doubting the SF pick.

I’m in relatively the same boat as you. I didn’t use SEA early and have them as an option as well. I still have buff but I’ve used the niners. both Buf @ Mia and Ari @ SF in week 11 are also nice matchups. 

To be my own devils advocate, let’s not pretend good Winston can’t show up for one full game. They are rare, but always a few each season. Seattle’s defense has been far from imposing as well. Odds are quite low in my mind, but could definitely happen. So it’s definitely not a “no brainer” pick. I’m leaning Seattle now as I have all 3 of sf/buf/sea in the same teir of lowest upset possibility this slate and I like the buff week 11 more that Seattle’s upcoming schedule, like you said. 

Edited by jerseys finest

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20 hours ago, Big Blue Wrecking Crew said:

 

Most likely choice for this week is SF (used BUF), with next option SEA vs TB. Anyone have any trepidation on SF? 

Reasons I can think of include

- Road game in division

- Getting a little full of themselves, reading the headlines, overlooking opponent

- Thursday night road team

Next logical time to utilize SEA is wk.16 vs. ARZ at home, so weighing value of keeping them for there, plus a double check for any input from others maybe doubting the SF pick.

I switched BUF and SF weeks 7/9 for this reason, but with no David Johnson or Edmonds I would feel somewhat comfortable playing SF, especially since SF is better than what I assumed they would be when I was slotting them for this week anyway. I already used SEA, but they are also a reasonable choice if you want to save SF for later. There are so few good picks week 16 going by today's information (mainly NE or SEA), that if you are planning for going through week 17, SEA could be worth saving for that. 

Edited by huthut

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I was one of the 5K+ who had Pit on Monday night in the Fanduel contest.  Last year, I got knocked out in week 9, and I can see it happening again.

I'm sticking with my strategy and picking against the Dolphins.  

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31 minutes ago, Caesar said:

I was one of the 5K+ who had Pit on Monday night in the Fanduel contest.  Last year, I got knocked out in week 9, and I can see it happening again.

I'm sticking with my strategy and picking against the Dolphins.  

Well, I'm in the same damn boat. Had PIT watching the ship sink and right itself. This week I took SF in another survivor league cuz you can pick TH night. Fanduel I guess I go JETS. Or go with my gut and take CLE to take care of business in DEN. If CLE doesn't make a statement here, then they really aren't that good!

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22 hours ago, Team Smokin' said:

Well, I'm in the same damn boat. Had PIT watching the ship sink and right itself. This week I took SF in another survivor league cuz you can pick TH night. Fanduel I guess I go JETS. Or go with my gut and take CLE to take care of business in DEN. If CLE doesn't make a statement here, then they really aren't that good!

I don't know if beating DEN proves much for this very underwhelming browns team, but I digress...

I think they SHOULD win that game against a very green rookie QB. Albeit being a better browns team on paper, it is still the browns, so... who knows. 

Edited by jerseys finest
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On 10/29/2019 at 12:15 PM, Grigs Allmoon said:

I saved Buffalo just for this week. Pretty easy call this week for those of us with the Bills left.

I did the same.

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6 minutes ago, LOCO said:

Colts was a gimme.  Now I am nervous w hoyer at qb.  May go Saints now 

For those that still have them available, saints seem to be the play.

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Yea, I guess it is Saints with no Brissett. Not necessarily because I think the Colts need Brissett to win, but Hoyer looked very bad. 

Edited by huthut
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21 hours ago, huthut said:

Yea, I guess it is Saints with no Brissett. Not necessarily because I think the Colts need Brissett to win, but Hoyer looked very bad. 

Saints should have Kamara back and still Murray besides. I would be extremely surprised to see them lose here.

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2 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Saints should have Kamara back and still Murray besides. I would be extremely surprised to see them lose here.

Oh, I don't think anyone would be passing on the Saints because they think there is any chance of them losing. I think it's more a situation where you'd like to save what might be the best team in the league for later, and get by with a nearly safe middling team like the Colts, who doesn't have as much future value. 

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26 minutes ago, Grigs Allmoon said:

Oh, I don't think anyone would be passing on the Saints because they think there is any chance of them losing. I think it's more a situation where you'd like to save what might be the best team in the league for later, and get by with a nearly safe middling team like the Colts, who doesn't have as much future value. 

+1, although Colts also have some winnable games next couple of weeks

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On 11/4/2019 at 9:36 PM, huthut said:

Yea, I guess it is Saints with no Brissett. Not necessarily because I think the Colts need Brissett to win, but Hoyer looked very bad. 

Care to share more insight? From the outside, I see a backup on the road against a strong D having his team in position to win the game with a FG that is missed now having a full week to get #1 reps and play arguably the worst team in the league at home. Appreciate any details that can be offered.

Have NO, but as highlighted by others, more future value that IND.

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I was just watching the game and thought he was making terrible throws and decisions? I don't have anything more quantitative than that. 

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On 10/8/2019 at 12:00 AM, huthut said:

Might end up switching SF and BUF at weeks 7/9, then I get SF @ WAS and BUF vs WAS. I feel like that makes week 9 a touch safer. 

Have you updated your season long plan yet?  Would love to see it if so.

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12 hours ago, Deamon said:

Have you updated your season long plan yet?  Would love to see it if so.

I have not, but I guess I can look and see what has changed in the last month. Switching SF and BUF did not change the outcome, but I guess it made week 9 less stressful. I left original picks, but changed text for alternates. Mostly re-evaluations of teams that should be good but are not, and teams that I thought would be bad but are ok. Current thoughts for picks bolded.

  1. SEA :thumbup:
  2. BAL :thumbup:
  3. DAL :thumbup:
  4. LAC :thumbup:
  5. PHI :thumbup:
  6. NE :thumbup:
  7. SF :thumbup:
  8. PIT :thumbup:
  9. BUF :thumbup:
  10. IND vs MIA - not as confident if Brissett is out, might switch to NO vs ATL. NO vs ATL feels kind of trappy if Matt Ryan plays.
  11. MIN vs DEN - Should be ok, though MIN has random bad games and DEN has random good games, no idea what to expect with no Flacco, alternate could be OAK vs CIN
  12. CLE vs MIA - losing confidence that CLE is pickable in survivor, options are NO vs CAR if not used in week 10, as well as DET @ WAS. Kind of liking DET there. Old alternative was CHI vs NYG but CHI is ending up in the "thought they would be good but they are not" tier that CLE is in.
  13. KC vs OAK - OAK is showing signs of life, and this might not be as safe as I once thought. Alternative could be CAR vs WAS.
  14. GB vs WAS - this looks fine still
  15. NYG vs MIA - I will probably go KC vs DEN here. MIA looks quite a bit better with Fitzpatrick (ignore that they have been playing bad teams lately).
  16. Who knows, bunch of close matchups, will re-evaluate later - still nothing enticing, will either be NO @ TEN (if not used week 10), HOU @ TB, or JAX @ ATL
  17. LAR vs ARI - not really counting on it getting this far, but if so ARI is not as big of a pushover as projected, but no real great options. Maybe HOU vs TEN.
Edited by huthut
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Brissett ruled out.  Is Indy still a good play or are the Saints everyones choice now?

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1 hour ago, Deamon said:

Brissett ruled out.  Is Indy still a good play or are the Saints everyones choice now?

It's going to be a game time decision for me.

I have the Saints selected now, but I REALLY want to use the Colts. I'm pretty sure I'll end up switching to Indy. Even with Hoyer, they should be able to roll over Miami with their run game and a conservative passing offense, right?

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Still going with the Colts, not like Brissett is a world beater, and the IND def and everything else should be good enough to win the game. 

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22 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

I'm always the better safe than sorry guy, so I will go out marching with the Saints.

Not safe, but very sorry.

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YESSSSSS!!!!  Down to final 3 now. 

IF Indy can win this that is.

EDT:  And they blew it.  My whole league is eliminated now.  Do the teams that lost out on Indy go on because they technically were still alive when the others that picked the saints were out?

Edited by Deamon

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Wish I knew where Hoyer lived to leave a nice big flaming bag of you know what on his porch for that performance. 

Dont get firing into the end zone on last series when they could still get a first...oh well

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4 hours ago, Deamon said:

YESSSSSS!!!!  Down to final 3 now. 

IF Indy can win this that is.

EDT:  And they blew it.  My whole league is eliminated now.  Do the teams that lost out on Indy go on because they technically were still alive when the others that picked the saints were out?

I’ve never seen a league with a rule like that. It would be patently unfair. 

In this situation, in some leagues, the pool is over and everyone alive going into this week splits the pot. In others, this week is basically forgotten about - except you can’t reuse who you just picked - and everyone moves on.

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1 minute ago, Pip's Invitation said:

I’ve never seen a league with a rule like that. It would be patently unfair. 

In this situation, in some leagues, the pool is over and everyone alive going into this week splits the pot. In others, this week is basically forgotten about - except you can’t reuse who you just picked - and everyone moves on.

Ya it was wishful thinking. I know in reality that won't be the case :(

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My league went from 80 to 7 today. At the very last minute I switched from NO to Indy. Needless to say I was feeling pretty good for a period of a few hours.

Oh, well... I suspect this thread is about to die. Can't imagine many FBGs are still alive in any pools, since they are down to about 2% left. Congrats to those still kicking.

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17 hours ago, Grigs Allmoon said:

My league went from 80 to 7 today. At the very last minute I switched from NO to Indy. Needless to say I was feeling pretty good for a period of a few hours.

Oh, well... I suspect this thread is about to die. Can't imagine many FBGs are still alive in any pools, since they are down to about 2% left. Congrats to those still kicking.

I'd suspect most smaller pools will still have many alive as lots of them went to 0 and will allow those people to move on another week.

I felt so so happy after that Saints game, on top of the world.  Then Indy happened. We all are down to another week now. ugh.

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Did everyone in here lose out 2 weeks ago?  haha. 

Tough call this week.  Cleveland or New Orleans.

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