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Survivor leagues 2019 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Zyphros
- Start date
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Either way was a winner but I trusted miami more to lose so that was my play.
Onward to next week.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
San Fran and Buffalo are the two top ones I have not played yet. Buffalo by a hair since SF would seem to be the better one to save.
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
These are the two plays I had scripted in for week 9 as well.
SF @ ARI
or
WAS @ BUF
Or maybe CLE now that DEN has a new starting QB. Off chalk play? CLE @ DEN - sounds a bit risky.
NYJ @ MIA - Hmm another roll of the dice against MIA.
jerseys finest
Footballguy
Week 9 and 11 seem like the most difficult weeks with multiple games that should be wins but don’t feel like pure locks. Those teams also seem to have an equal or better matchup in week 11.
Leaning SEA at home against TB for week 9 to use buff @ MIA week 11.
Also like Buff at home vs Wash this week and going Rams at home vs CHI in week 11.
SF at home vs ARI is nice this week too, I had already used them though. NYJ vs MIA maybe? I think the jets win this, but I can see them losing it too. Staying away from this game.
(week 10 MIA @ Indy seems like a lock play already)
Leaning SEA at home against TB for week 9 to use buff @ MIA week 11.
Also like Buff at home vs Wash this week and going Rams at home vs CHI in week 11.
SF at home vs ARI is nice this week too, I had already used them though. NYJ vs MIA maybe? I think the jets win this, but I can see them losing it too. Staying away from this game.
(week 10 MIA @ Indy seems like a lock play already)
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I've gone against Miami every chance I've had this year but this week looks a little shaky.
SF on the road vs. AZ this week. Still a very good play. They play at home vs. AZ in a couple weeks. I have them picked that week going with the Jets this week. But I may change this...
jerseys finest
Footballguy
Good call. Thanks for the fix.
Dolphins played hard last night. Looked like an nfl team in the first half. Jets (and bengals) have also looked like borderline nfl teams.
Neither team is playing for anything more than pride. the jets should win this game, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the dolphins won
jimmycperu
Footballguy
Any confidence in Carolina this week? Would like to save SF but for week 11
jerseys finest
Footballguy
Feels like another game where they “should” win, but a loss wouldn’t surprise me.
the tannehill led titans are a better team. Not a good team, but better. Playing hard. They have an above average defense. Still going against Kyle Allen.
there are a couple of picks I think are slightly safer plays. Just thinking out loud here.
SF, Buff, Sea stand out to me as teams that should dominate their opponent. <20% chance of upset.
Car, Cle, Phi, GB, NYJ, Dal all look like they should win their respective games, but have weaknesses that could be exploited by their opponent. 20%-40% chance of upset.
Bobcat10
Footballguy
Was hoping Mia would knock out almost 5800 people on Fanduel last night. What sort of stinks about that contest is you cannot use the Thursday games. My only real options this week are NYJ, CAR, CLE, and NE. Not feeling very confident with any of them.
I have the most hesitation with that NYJ/MIA game especially if they move Bell.
There are some spots to use CLE when it starts getting rough late in the year. They could lose an ugly low scoring game in DEN.
I think I messed up not using NE already with their cream puff schedule to start the year....I don't think they're super safe again until week 15.
The main thing I don't like about CAR this week is TEN plays ugly games and gets ugly wins. They are the only home team I listed though.
Thinking CLE or CAR at this point...
I have the most hesitation with that NYJ/MIA game especially if they move Bell.
There are some spots to use CLE when it starts getting rough late in the year. They could lose an ugly low scoring game in DEN.
I think I messed up not using NE already with their cream puff schedule to start the year....I don't think they're super safe again until week 15.
The main thing I don't like about CAR this week is TEN plays ugly games and gets ugly wins. They are the only home team I listed though.
Thinking CLE or CAR at this point...
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I saved Buffalo just for this week. Pretty easy call this week for those of us with the Bills left.
Big Blue Wrecking Crew
downsized
I am in a pool that started with appx 8900 entries and is now down to appx 1400 (everyone moved on this week...first time I can remember that occurring).
If more than 50 entries after week 12, the pool goes to 2 picks/week, so additional layer of challenge when looking down the line.
Most likely choice for this week is SF (used BUF), with next option SEA vs TB. Anyone have any trepidation on SF?
Reasons I can think of include
- Road game in division
- Getting a little full of themselves, reading the headlines, overlooking opponent
- Thursday night road team
Next logical time to utilize SEA is wk.16 vs. ARZ at home, so weighing value of keeping them for there, plus a double check for any input from others maybe doubting the SF pick.
If more than 50 entries after week 12, the pool goes to 2 picks/week, so additional layer of challenge when looking down the line.
Most likely choice for this week is SF (used BUF), with next option SEA vs TB. Anyone have any trepidation on SF?
Reasons I can think of include
- Road game in division
- Getting a little full of themselves, reading the headlines, overlooking opponent
- Thursday night road team
Next logical time to utilize SEA is wk.16 vs. ARZ at home, so weighing value of keeping them for there, plus a double check for any input from others maybe doubting the SF pick.
jerseys finest
Footballguy
When they went up 14-0 I felt the same way for the FanDuel contest! And then the dolphins were inevitably the dolphins
i don’t think the jets move bell unless someone’s blows them away with a deal (looking at you Houston) I think the question here is, does Miami lose this game?
Of your two, I think I like Cleveland going up against a very unprepared QB (whoever they start)
I feel the same way as you about the titans. They win ugly, but they can win.
jerseys finest
Footballguy
I’m in relatively the same boat as you. I didn’t use SEA early and have them as an option as well. I still have buff but I’ve used the niners. both Buf @ Mia and Ari @ SF in week 11 are also nice matchups.
To be my own devils advocate, let’s not pretend good Winston can’t show up for one full game. They are rare, but always a few each season. Seattle’s defense has been far from imposing as well. Odds are quite low in my mind, but could definitely happen. So it’s definitely not a “no brainer” pick. I’m leaning Seattle now as I have all 3 of sf/buf/sea in the same teir of lowest upset possibility this slate and I like the buff week 11 more that Seattle’s upcoming schedule, like you said.
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I switched BUF and SF weeks 7/9 for this reason, but with no David Johnson or Edmonds I would feel somewhat comfortable playing SF, especially since SF is better than what I assumed they would be when I was slotting them for this week anyway. I already used SEA, but they are also a reasonable choice if you want to save SF for later. There are so few good picks week 16 going by today's information (mainly NE or SEA), that if you are planning for going through week 17, SEA could be worth saving for that.Big Blue Wrecking Crew said:
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Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Well, I'm in the same damn boat. Had PIT watching the ship sink and right itself. This week I took SF in another survivor league cuz you can pick TH night. Fanduel I guess I go JETS. Or go with my gut and take CLE to take care of business in DEN. If CLE doesn't make a statement here, then they really aren't that good!
jerseys finest
Footballguy
I don't know if beating DEN proves much for this very underwhelming browns team, but I digress...
I think they SHOULD win that game against a very green rookie QB. Albeit being a better browns team on paper, it is still the browns, so... who knows.
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N Zone
Footballguy
jimmycperu
Footballguy
I think I am still going Colts.
Not a terrible rest of season schedule for Colts thought. No gimmie but a couple winnable games.
Not a terrible rest of season schedule for Colts thought. No gimmie but a couple winnable games.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Saints should have Kamara back and still Murray besides. I would be extremely surprised to see them lose here.huthut said:
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Oh, I don't think anyone would be passing on the Saints because they think there is any chance of them losing. I think it's more a situation where you'd like to save what might be the best team in the league for later, and get by with a nearly safe middling team like the Colts, who doesn't have as much future value.
jimmycperu
Footballguy
Big Blue Wrecking Crew
downsized
Care to share more insight? From the outside, I see a backup on the road against a strong D having his team in position to win the game with a FG that is missed now having a full week to get #1 reps and play arguably the worst team in the league at home. Appreciate any details that can be offered.huthut said:
Have NO, but as highlighted by others, more future value that IND.
Deamon
Footballguy
I have not, but I guess I can look and see what has changed in the last month. Switching SF and BUF did not change the outcome, but I guess it made week 9 less stressful. I left original picks, but changed text for alternates. Mostly re-evaluations of teams that should be good but are not, and teams that I thought would be bad but are ok. Current thoughts for picks bolded.Deamon said:
- SEA
- BAL
- DAL
- LAC
- PHI
- NE
- SF
- PIT
- BUF
- IND vs MIA - not as confident if Brissett is out, might switch to NO vs ATL. NO vs ATL feels kind of trappy if Matt Ryan plays.
- MIN vs DEN - Should be ok, though MIN has random bad games and DEN has random good games, no idea what to expect with no Flacco, alternate could be OAK vs CIN
- CLE vs MIA - losing confidence that CLE is pickable in survivor, options are NO vs CAR if not used in week 10, as well as DET @ WAS. Kind of liking DET there. Old alternative was CHI vs NYG but CHI is ending up in the "thought they would be good but they are not" tier that CLE is in.
- KC vs OAK - OAK is showing signs of life, and this might not be as safe as I once thought. Alternative could be CAR vs WAS.
- GB vs WAS - this looks fine still
- NYG vs MIA - I will probably go KC vs DEN here. MIA looks quite a bit better with Fitzpatrick (ignore that they have been playing bad teams lately).
- Who knows, bunch of close matchups, will re-evaluate later - still nothing enticing, will either be NO @ TEN (if not used week 10), HOU @ TB, or JAX @ ATL
- LAR vs ARI - not really counting on it getting this far, but if so ARI is not as big of a pushover as projected, but no real great options. Maybe HOU vs TEN.
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Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
It's going to be a game time decision for me.
I have the Saints selected now, but I REALLY want to use the Colts. I'm pretty sure I'll end up switching to Indy. Even with Hoyer, they should be able to roll over Miami with their run game and a conservative passing offense, right?
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I'm always the better safe than sorry guy, so I will go out marching with the Saints.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Not safe, but very sorry.Leroy Hoard said:
Deamon
Footballguy
YESSSSSS!!!! Down to final 3 now.
IF Indy can win this that is.
EDT: And they blew it. My whole league is eliminated now. Do the teams that lost out on Indy go on because they technically were still alive when the others that picked the saints were out?
IF Indy can win this that is.
EDT: And they blew it. My whole league is eliminated now. Do the teams that lost out on Indy go on because they technically were still alive when the others that picked the saints were out?
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Big Blue Wrecking Crew
downsized
Wish I knew where Hoyer lived to leave a nice big flaming bag of you know what on his porch for that performance.
Dont get firing into the end zone on last series when they could still get a first...oh well
Dont get firing into the end zone on last series when they could still get a first...oh well
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
I’ve never seen a league with a rule like that. It would be patently unfair.
In this situation, in some leagues, the pool is over and everyone alive going into this week splits the pot. In others, this week is basically forgotten about - except you can’t reuse who you just picked - and everyone moves on.
Deamon
Footballguy
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
My league began this week with 91 entries and is down to 6. It started with more than 600, I lost in week 4 because of the Rams.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
My league went from 80 to 7 today. At the very last minute I switched from NO to Indy. Needless to say I was feeling pretty good for a period of a few hours.
Oh, well... I suspect this thread is about to die. Can't imagine many FBGs are still alive in any pools, since they are down to about 2% left. Congrats to those still kicking.
Oh, well... I suspect this thread is about to die. Can't imagine many FBGs are still alive in any pools, since they are down to about 2% left. Congrats to those still kicking.
Deamon
Footballguy
I'd suspect most smaller pools will still have many alive as lots of them went to 0 and will allow those people to move on another week.Grigs Allmoon said:
I felt so so happy after that Saints game, on top of the world. Then Indy happened. We all are down to another week now. ugh.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
CLE strikes me as a team who could lose to anyone at any time. And also beat anyone at any time. I’d avoid picking for or against them.
