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Gottabesweet

Week 7 BUY LOW & SELL HIGH thread (REDRAFT)

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I know it’s only Week 1 but in casual leagues and or short bench leagues people panic.  They’ll drop someone, trade someone off a poor game or chase a great waiver wire score. 

Who are you trying to buy this week and is there anyone you’re trying to sell.  

I might throw an offer for Aaron Jones for a Calvin Ridley. 

 

Edited by Gottabesweet

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2 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

I want to sell high on Baltimore players but I'm afraid of missing out on future magic...

Agree. I’m in a short bench (4) league and grabbed Lamar as my QB after 14-15 were off the board.  Looking like I can’t cut him on his Bye now.  Guess I have to hope he keeps it up then trade him for a QB that had their bye week 4,5,6,7. 

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Maybe a good value on Tyreek Hill

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oops

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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I'd sell high on everyone in Baltimore.  

I think they're for real.  But I also think the Miami Dolphins may be an all-time bad defense.  

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9 minutes ago, jm192 said:

I'd sell high on everyone in Baltimore.  

I think they're for real.  But I also think the Miami Dolphins may be an all-time bad defense.  

Even 50% of today's production would be startable in most leagues. It's very difficult to resist the allure...

 

Edited by [scooter]
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26 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

I want to sell high on Baltimore players but I'm afraid of missing out on future magic...

Holding Jackson and Ingram. Selling Brown immediately. Leaning towards holding Andrews.

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Buy:

Tyreke Hill

Kerryon

Robby Anderson

 




Sell:  

Ravens

John Ross

Marlon Mack

Ekeler

Ronald Jones

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12 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

Even 50% of today's production would be startable in most leagues. It's very difficult to resist the allure...

 

Sure.  But Jackson had a perfect passer rating.  Half the TD production would mean he gets you 2.5 passing TD's per game.  That would extrapolate to 40 passing TD's.  Do we think Lamar Jackson and that Baltimore Ravens are set for 40 passing TD's this year?  Probably not.  

The Dolphins have an incredibly bad group.  Teams will probably go off vs them all season.

I'm a believer in Jackson.  And if you're not getting much for him, I wouldn't give him away.  But if someone sees 5 passing TD's and thinks he's the next Mahommes--I'm all for turning him into a RB/WR.

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I'd buy Stafford from someone who thinks he's selling him high. He's gonna have a good year.

 

I'd sell every Raven.

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I'd sell Pettis if anyone thinks they're buying low.  Had a hard time getting on the field.  Jimmy G doesn't seem to like wide receivers.

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12 minutes ago, jm192 said:

Sell:  

Marlon Mack

Dunno about this one. Mack’s body of work is getting big enough (from mid-2018 on) to no longer dismiss him as a fluke.

A 12-game fluke?

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53 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

I want to sell high on Baltimore players but I'm afraid of missing out on future magic...

I got plenty of stuff wrong in week one and obviously playing the Dolphins helped all these guys, but that being said, this offense has looked underrated to me for a while. I think people are really sleeping on how good Ingram is because he's been stuck in a committee for so long. He can be a prolific three down back and this is a perfect squad for him. Andrews flashed last year and should only be better in year two. Hollywood is likely to be a bit feast-or-famine, but at the same time, you can see the electric talent. I don't know what to make of Lamar exactly, but I think this team is more legit than fluke. None of their guys were rated high at any position going into the year, but you knew the offense would be getting some yards somehow.

Edited by EBF
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Just now, Doug B said:

Dunno about this one. Mack’s body of work is getting big enough (from mid-2018 on) to no longer dismiss him as a fluke.

A 12-game fluke?

I don’t think he’s a fluke.

I view this as the stock market rather than “real or fluke.”

The Colts as a whole take some hit from losing Luck.  It may not be as big as we thought, but it exists.  

A huge game week 1 maybe sends the message that he’s still who he was with Luck.  If you can sell him at this value before he has a few “return to the mean” games—I think you do it.

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In terms of WRs who did well this week, I don't think Gallup is anything special and I don't think Dak is a good QB, so given waiver options I may go after J Brown, M Brown, or even AJ Brown if they are out there instead. The main thing I look for in a WR is volume of targets and the Browns have a better claim for being the best receiver on their roster, whereas I think Cooper is still going to be the #1 in Dallas (on what I don't expect to be a prolific passing offense most weeks). That's not to say I hate Gallup. I've always thought he's decent. I just don't think he's this good.

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32 minutes ago, jm192 said:

Buy:

Tyreke Hill

Kerryon

Robby Anderson

 




Sell:  

Ravens

John Ross

Marlon Mack

Ekeler

Ronald Jones

Kerryon is interesting.  CJ Anderson seemed to be in hurry up and a few third downs. I’ll have to look into this more.  

Ekeler is a good sell. I think he’s capped at carries, so you’ll have to hope he can continue to get the James White type catches.  

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I’ll sell Sammy Watkins anywhere I can get a good deal. I’ve been fooled by him before.

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53 minutes ago, jm192 said:

I don’t think he’s a fluke.

I view this as the stock market rather than “real or fluke.”

The Colts as a whole take some hit from losing Luck.  It may not be as big as we thought, but it exists.  

A huge game week 1 maybe sends the message that he’s still who he was with Luck.  If you can sell him at this value before he has a few “return to the mean” games—I think you do it.

I don't see people really thinking this. I think Mack is more likely the real deal and the smart thing to do would be to acquire Mack from the owner who thinks flipping him now is "clever"

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Id sell Michel for a bag of balls after watching this game. Not even on the field. Probably saw 20 snaps total. Can't believe I passed on Henry and Mack for him. 

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1 hour ago, jm192 said:

A huge game week 1 maybe sends the message that he’s still who he was with Luck.  If you can sell him at this value before he has a few “return to the mean” games—I think you do it.

“If” ... “at this value”. OK. If you’re saying IF someone will pay Saquon Barkley prices for Mack after this big game, you pull the trigger.

More commonly, I think, people will keep valuing Mack as a weak RB2 and make offers as such. For me, Mack is a firm hold. I think his rock-bottom floor averages out to 80 yards and 0.5 TDs per game, albeit with considerable volatility (see 2018).

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6 minutes ago, Doug B said:

“If” ... “at this value”. OK. If you’re saying IF someone will pay Saquon Barkley prices for Mack after this big game, you pull the trigger.

More commonly, I think, people will keep valuing Mack as a weak RB2 and make offers as such. For me, Mack is a firm hold. I think his rock-bottom floor averages out to 80 yards and 0.5 TDs per game, albeit with considerable volatility (see 2018).

I was surprised to see him with no receptions. I think it's the one facet of his game lacking. That's what keeps him from top 10 finish on the season. 

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10 minutes ago, saintfool said:

I was surprised to see him with no receptions. I think it's the one facet of his game lacking. That's what keeps him from top 10 finish on the season. 

I would sell Mack high.

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2 hours ago, jm192 said:

Buy:

Tyreke Hill

Kerryon

Robby Anderson

 




Sell:  

Ravens

John Ross

Marlon Mack

Ekeler

Ronald Jones

So would you sell John Ross for Robby Anderson? Is that a fair deal?

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4 minutes ago, az_prof said:

I would sell Mack high.

he's going to get a lot of touches. he's running behind a fantastic line. good coach and scheme with a QB that doesn't turnover the ball. i don't see any reason to move him unless someone is willing to overpay.

i traded Golladay for Mack this offseason and I don't regret it. i don't expect games like this in terms of production but do expect Frank to keep him involved in the game.

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Buy:

Corey Davis

Kerryon Johnson

Tyreek Hill

Aaron Jones (I know I know... but his value is lower than it should be right now. I'd buy just to sell later for pick/s)

 

Sell:

Sammy Watkins

Michael Gallup

Any Baltimore player

Marlon Mack

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1 hour ago, shadyridr said:

Id sell Michel for a bag of balls after watching this game. Not even on the field. Probably saw 20 snaps total. Can't believe I passed on Henry and Mack for him. 

Its one game.  The Pats don't showcase the same guys every week.  Im sure Michel is still in for many good games, likely next week even.

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13 minutes ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

Its one game.  The Pats don't showcase the same guys every week.  Im sure Michel is still in for many good games, likely next week even.

Precisely the reason to sell.  Capable of disappearing on any given week, with no warning.

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3 hours ago, jm192 said:

Sell 

Ronald Jones

Doubt RoJo’s value has increased for anyone but those who drafted / added RoJo.

as an owner in both redraft & dynasty, I’m more optimistic than I was. But no one is beating my door down for a trade. 

I’d wait until he’s tabbed the starter, and then has a solid day with 20+ touches, maybe a TD.

Then and only then will anyone be convinced that his value is for real & be worth buying. 

I’m holding, because I went mostly scrub RB after Carson, so RoJo serves a critical purpose for me. And in Dynasty I believe he’s an obvious hold as he’s a talented back who struggled his 1st year. 

He sure looked good tonight. If you’re looking to sell high, it’s gonna take more momentum though. 

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3 hours ago, EBF said:

In terms of WRs who did well this week, I don't think Gallup is anything special and I don't think Dak is a good QB, so given waiver options I may go after J Brown, M Brown, or even AJ Brown if they are out there instead. The main thing I look for in a WR is volume of targets and the Browns have a better claim for being the best receiver on their roster, whereas I think Cooper is still going to be the #1 in Dallas (on what I don't expect to be a prolific passing offense most weeks). That's not to say I hate Gallup. I've always thought he's decent. I just don't think he's this good.

I think you are underestimating what Kellen Moore will continue to do with that offense.  

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1 hour ago, az_prof said:

I would sell Mack high.

I think that's a mistake.  They still have one of the best OL in the leagues and Reich is a good playcaller.  Mack was top 5 ending the season last year when he took over the primary lead.

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Selling Mack is a mistake.  He’ll get touches and has proven to produce.

Watkins

Selling a healthy chiefs WR.....wait selling the healthy #1 Chiefs WR?  For what?

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6 hours ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

Its one game.  The Pats don't showcase the same guys every week.  Im sure Michel is still in for many good games, likely next week even.

He had 15 carries. 4 of which were for negative yards. Rex Burkhead looked much better than him AND is a dual threat unlike Michel. He's their version of Blount. 

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Agree selling Mack is a HUGE mistake. That's a running team without Luck with a dominant line. Rb1 ROS

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7 hours ago, davearm said:

Precisely the reason to sell.  Capable of disappearing on any given week, with no warning.

I've been burned by NE RBs before and have learned.   You never know which is going to get the ball on any given week.

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I really think some of you guys are doing this wrong.  This isn't just sell list of guys who were did well week one but were drafted low; guys drafted high who performed mediocre/poorly.  

As such, I think Mack is a buy low candidate.  He was drafted as a low RB2 and I think could be gotten for mid RB2 price when that is his floor IMO.  THAT is how to compile a useful buy low - sell high list.  

 

So please, more analysis and understanding of mkt value vs. floor/upside.  Thx

 

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7 hours ago, infantsam said:

Selling Mack is a mistake.  He’ll get touches and has proven to produce.

Watkins

Selling a healthy chiefs WR.....wait selling the healthy #1 Chiefs WR?  For what?

We all know how the Watkins story unfolds.  This has been told and retold many times over.

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I think there is a lot more at play than how they did in week 1 to answer this question.  Opportunity going forward, team offense, and injury status of other players (also future opportunity) have to be factored into the sell/buy.  Now that's not saying don't stash a player at the end of your bench if you get them cheap, but we're talking about trading or blind bind dollars here.  I wouldn't be trading a late round pick (say rd 3 or 4 in dynasty), or put in bid of a huge amount of my blind bid dollars, for a flavor of the week that just happened to have a good game week 1, but his future prospects are suspect.

Edited by JohnnyU

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51 minutes ago, Morton Muffley said:

I really think some of you guys are doing this wrong.  This isn't just sell list of guys who were did well week one but were drafted low; guys drafted high who performed mediocre/poorly.  

As such, I think Mack is a buy low candidate.  He was drafted as a low RB2 and I think could be gotten for mid RB2 price when that is his floor IMO.  THAT is how to compile a useful buy low - sell high list.  

 

So please, more analysis and understanding of mkt value vs. floor/upside.  Thx

 

Why don't you list three or four of these mid RB2 backs that you think should be offered in a trade I just don't see it in my best interest Included is a cheat sheet ranking that includes Hi/Low  https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/rb-cheatsheets.php

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29 minutes ago, Weebs210 said:

Lmao if you sell Lamar you will regret it.

Ditto.  I planted my flag on Jackson this year.  He scored over 30 points yesterday with no rushing stats.  His floor is going to be high, and his ceiling is through the roof.

 

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42 minutes ago, Dismattle said:

Why don't you list three or four of these mid RB2 backs that you think should be offered in a trade I just don't see it in my best interest Included is a cheat sheet ranking that includes Hi/Low  https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/rb-cheatsheets.php

"Not in your best interest"???  Nice.

Well, here are a few more I'd be looking to buy:

Breida at high RB3/low RB2 price: thought he was undervalued before, was inefficient today, but with Coleman out he has a chance to be as high as a mid tier RB2

Ingram: his price went up but I think he could still be had for low RB2 price

Justice Hill: did nothing yesterday but good lotto ticket at a cheap price

Happy?  We good?

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9 hours ago, davearm said:

Precisely the reason to sell.  Capable of disappearing on any given week, with no warning.

This is why I avoided Michel like the plague in drafts.  Seemed like everything went right for him last year and it was unrepeatable.

I would hold Michel, wait until he has a good game (probably next week) and THEN try to sell.

 

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@Morton Muffley  You realize in a few months that Ingram will be 30 yrs old? For me I would have already gone to unload and/or planned to ride until the wheels come off... I'm not even so sure it's close to "win-now" type trade.  You sorta see why I said my best interest? 

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1 minute ago, Dismattle said:

@Morton Muffley  You realize in a few months that Ingram will be 30 yrs old? For me I would have already gone to unload and/or planned to ride until the wheels come off... I'm not even so sure it's close to "win-now" type trade.  You sorta see why I said my best interest? 

Massive difference for those who are reading this thread for redraft advice vs those who are reading it for dynasty advice.  In redraft, IDGAFF if Ingram is 23, 33 or 43 as long as he's playing the way he did yesterday.

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Winston.  His footwork looked improved.  The first two interceptions were Godwin & Peyton Barbers fault.  The 3rd was on him, but the pocket collapsed he was trying to win the game with a few minutes left.  ThebBucs Oline did a good job and the run game will open things up.  TE's missed a few blocks that made the Oline appear worse.  Dotson and Cappa are still suspect imo.  San Fran D was pretty good.  Sherman can still play and they did a great job of pressuring.  Both these teams are underrated right now imo.

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