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NE to go Undefeated (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter wgoldsph
- Start date
DawnBTVS
Footballguy
People forget how hard New England had to play just to go 16-0 in the regular season in 2007, with an offense where Brady and Moss played out of their minds. Indy played them tough then Philly (finishing 8-8) and Baltimore (finishing 5-11) nearly defeated them. Even the Giants game at the end of the year nearly knocked them off.
Belichick always says that any team can win on Sunday and it's about execution and doing their job. No way does he intentionally lose a game (c'mon... really? This coach of all coaches would intentionally lose??) but putting them into situations they may find themselves in the future is a legitimate expectation.
New England could go undefeated in the regular season but my gut feeling is they get a challenge and end up 13-3 or even 12-4. They don't have that easy a slate: @ Jets, Cleveland, @ Baltimore, @ Philadelphia, Dallas, @ Houston, and Kansas City is a pretty tough stretch IMO. At least 2 of those teams could defeat New England and the Jets/Dolphins always play them tougher than most opponents even if they often lose.
Belichick always says that any team can win on Sunday and it's about execution and doing their job. No way does he intentionally lose a game (c'mon... really? This coach of all coaches would intentionally lose??) but putting them into situations they may find themselves in the future is a legitimate expectation.
New England could go undefeated in the regular season but my gut feeling is they get a challenge and end up 13-3 or even 12-4. They don't have that easy a slate: @ Jets, Cleveland, @ Baltimore, @ Philadelphia, Dallas, @ Houston, and Kansas City is a pretty tough stretch IMO. At least 2 of those teams could defeat New England and the Jets/Dolphins always play them tougher than most opponents even if they often lose.
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Stealthycat
Footballguy
I've love to see it - I don't know how anyone can stop their offense. The DEF looked solid the other night too
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Stop perpetuating this bull ####. The Pats record against the rest of the league is better than their record against the AFC East.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
How many times do I have to answer the same question? He will intentionally make it more difficult to win a game earlier in the season if he thinks it will make his team better in the long run. IMO, that's not intentionally throwing a game. It's getting his team to gut things out and complete tasks and assignments when instructed.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Put another way . . . BB would much rather lose a game in Sept or Oct if it means winning a game in Jan or Feb.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I remember a game from a couple of years ago where on a couple of occasions NE had the ball on their side of midfield and ran the same running play on 3rd and 4th down each time (4 times total). They didn't get a first down either series and they ended up losing a tight game. To the media, BB essentially admitted that the offense needed to get that yard and would need to get that yard later in the season in game defining moments. IMO, he literally did not seem to care that they didn't make it and sounded pretty confident that he would have done it a third time if the situation came up again in the same game.
The press grilled him on why didn't they call something else, and he kept coming back with the same answer. Winning football teams need to get a yard when the other team knows what play you are going to run and you need to be strong enough to execute and impose your will regardless. I am sure the next week in practice they ran that same play 50 times. That's what makes Bill Bill and why I say he is less concerned about the team's record and cares more about getting his team mentally and physically prepared for later in the season.
Sure, they could have run a sneak, an Edelman pick play, or an easy dump off to White. But in his mind he had a teachable moment that would carry weight as opposed to them getting a first down and having the offense feeling good about themselves when he knew they needed to have more mettle and fortitude.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
AFC South is just like AFC East except each of the 4 teams thinks its somebody else who is supposed to have 6 easy wins.
CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
Bellichick wouldn't risk losing home field advantage in the playoffs just to try and gut something out. Early in the year it's too soon to speculate what other teams are going to do, so every win matters when it comes to HFA in the playoffs.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Brady and NE won all their divisional games twice. Peyton and IND won all their divisional games twice. Peyton and DEN won all their divisional games twice. That's a cozy 24-0 for Manning in those 4 seasons. But no one ever really says Peyton had a cakewalk schedule.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
I have a theory that some coaches know that if they get big statement wins they can keep their job. There's a reason why Jeff Fisher had a surprisingly good record against SEA when he was with the Rams. These coaches might spend a disproportionate amount of time game planning these matchups. For the Titans and Lions who are trying to imitate the Pats and the Jags who were trying to avenge their AFCC loss, the games simply meant more. The Jags beating the Pats was the only good thing that happened to them last year.
The Pats recognize the season is a marathon and it is a big part of why they succeed. You can't go all out every week.
The Pats recognize the season is a marathon and it is a big part of why they succeed. You can't go all out every week.
CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
This is silly or fishing, Bill calls the plays but Brady at this point has 100% freedom to call an audible if the play isn't there.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
This is extremely accurate. Thank you for making this point, repeatedly, so I didn't have to.
What I meant by my op is that it feels kind of like this year will be the year that everything will click into place and that early "learning loss" won't happen. Yes there's still the chance of a fluke loss or a well fought @bal type loss, but not a "we're going to put ourselves into a situation here so we know how to deal with it in January" type loss.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Not fishing. That's what happened.You don't think BB could get in Brady's ear and tell him to run the play as called (in a not so pleasant way with a lot more colorful language)?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
It's unlikely they will lose a game in the early going this year as they have an easy schedule for much of the first half. But the stretch of: at BAL, at PHI, DAL, at HOU, and KCC will be very difficult to navigate without any blemished to their record. Before the season started, I had them losing to BAL and PHI (but winning all their other games). It wouldn't surprise me if they lost 3 of those games, especially if they have some key players out with injuries in that stretch.
CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
Maybe Brady's first few seasons but not now, Bill has said as much that he looks for Brady to check them out of the plays that aren't there.
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wgoldsph
Footballguy
I think when you're as decorated as Brady you do whatever play you want after you've gotten to the line of scrimmage and your coach accepts it's the best thing you saw when you read the defense.
Yep 19 is too high in Miami (wonder if a road team has ever been favored by that much?). And let's not forget two of the Pats losses last year were to former coaches...
ETA: Here's the answer, happened once. SF -23 vs. Atl in 1987
https://thebiglead.com/2019/09/10/patriots-dolphins-biggest-road-spreads-nfl-history/
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ChiefD
Footballguy
Zero times. You have to answer the same question zero times. For some reason, you choose to answer the same question repeatedly.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
We are far removed from the latter half of 2007 when the Pats were favored by 14+ weekly due to the demonstrated Moss factor.Oh, come on.
There are folks here who will point to Brady's 22nd rank in long ball accuracy as proof that he can no longer throw the long ball.
The Vegas over/under on Games that Gordon will play this year is (or was a couple days ago) 9.5
AB might be mentally ill.
Injuries happen.
There is literally nothing unreasonable about saying NE could lose 3 in the tough stretch (at BAL, at PHI, DAL, at HOU, and KCC).
Personally, it feels like adding AB takes them from 12-4 to 14-2 on paper, but this is the NFL and variances are huge.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
9-1. After that I don’t care
ESPN is seriously projecting Baltimore to be favored over New England? :whoosh:
Not sure making Houston a pick 'em is likely either, but it's at least defensible.
rockaction
Footballguy
Huh. What exactly does Baltimore have that NE should be an underdog? I wonder what measure they're using in their predictions. Team DVOA on offense and defense from last year, factoring in home field advantage or home/road splits or something?Arodin said:
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I just accept that whatever tools, algorithms, or methodologies that are used are over my head and try my best to accept the outcomes. For example, in 538's team rankings chart, NE gained 28 points in ELO based off of their thumping of the Steelers. They outscored PIT by 30 and had a +157 advantage in net yardage. The Chiefs beat JAC by 14 points and had +63 in the yardage category . . . and gained 32 points in team ELO score. Not sure how they come up with their math (they don't have to show their work).
But their biggest gainers in ELO score for the week were:
TEN +46
BAL +45
KC +32
DAL +30
OAK +29
NEP +27
SF +26
GB +22
MIN +20
I don't get it. Maybe the logic here is that NE already had the highest score in the league so they couldn't really bump them much. But on the surface, it almost looks like 538 is saying the Pats only had the 6th most impressive victory this week, and it was barely above 3 other teams that won. I saw sections of a lot of other games, and NE looked dominating. I get that it's a long season, but they changed their scores / rankings after one game by each team.
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't do well with with raw statistical analysis, but it seems like beating the Steelers by thirty and in that fashion is more impressive than beating Miami by forty-nine, no matter the disparity in score. I wonder how they grade the games. Oh well, it's all fun to spitball about, regardless. I'd have to take a look at how 538 does it.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
10,000 - 1 to win the SB. Next closest team is 500 - 1.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/
Spike
Footballguy
This is why I also think Bill brought in Brown...for when the Pats play the Chiefs in the playoffs this year.
Deamon
Footballguy
I thought that was a typo from 1000 so had to check. Crazy. Wonder if anyone drops a $1 on it for fun. Those long shot super bowl picks are almost pointless to even throw a buck on.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The bets I love are the ones where someone bets on a prohibitive favorite that even if they win have very little payout. I forget what the bet was, but there was a story recently where someone put up like $10,000 on a very safe bet. Like NE winning the AFC East . . . to win $100. So the guy had to have his money tied up for 5 months to essentially earn back $20 a month while not having access to the $10,000.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I try to hit something in the middle that might actually have a shot at 10-1 odds or better.
steelers1080
Footballguy
They're not going to go undefeated this season but the team they lose to will be a surprising one. That's my bold prediction. I think that they have an 80% chance of going undefeated but I just really, really don't want them to win SB7.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
I certainly hope not. I do not like how they conduct business and I do not like the insufferable arrogance of their fans, most of whom have no memory or concept of the NFL prior to the arrival of Brady.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Smart money would say no just based on math alone. In 99 prior seasons, there have been 4 undefeated, untied teams in the regular season (34 Bears, 42 Bears, 72 Dolphins, 07 Patriots). People in general have way too much recency bias. They had a good game against the Steelers. It's a long season.
DropKick
Footballguy
Yes, it is. Ten weeks from down we could have a very different perspective as injuries, etc. run their course.
Barring a Brady injury - put me down for 14-2.
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Insoxicated
Anarchy99
Footballguy
NE opponents so far have not won a single game and have been outscored 39 to 163. Let's tap the brakes until they face some better competition. After the Jets, they play the Bills in Buffalo. They might get somewhat of a game from the Bills. Beyond that, they may not have much of a challenge until they face BAL in early November when they start their at BAL, at PHI, DAL, at HOU, KC stretch all in a row.
The Pats have OL and TE issues and those combined could put Brady under duress if they don't get people healthy. The defense is for real, but without Brady who knows what to expect.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
As things stand now, here would be the QB's the Patriots would have to face . . .
vs NYJ (Luke Falk - 24 years old, never faced NE . . . 0-0)
at BUF (Josh Allen - 23 years old . . . 0-1)
at WAS (Case Keenum . . . 0-1)
vs NYG (Daniel Jones - rookie, 22 years old, never faced NE . . . 0-0)
at NYJ (Luke Falk - 24 years old . . . 0-0)
vs CLE (Baker Mayfield - 24 years old, never faced NE . . . 0-0)
at BAL (Lamar Jackson - 22 years old, never faced NE . . . 0-0)
at PHI (Carson Wentz - never faced NE . . . 0-0)
vs DAL (Dak Prescott - never faced NE . . . 0-0)
at HOU (DeShaun Watson - 24 years old . . . 0-2)
vs KCC (Patrick Mahomes - 24 years old . . . 0-2)
at CIN (Andy Dalton . . . 1-2)
vs BUF (Josh Allen - 23 years old . . 0-1)
vs MIA (Josh Rosen - 22 years old . . . 0-1 but didn't start)
I forget the exact stats that involve each of the following categories, but here's the summary:
- In TB / BB era, IIRC, NE is undefeated at home against rookie QB's and still very good on the road against rookie QB's.
- Their record against QB's under 25 is insanely good (not many losses)
- Their record against a QB facing them for the first time is also through the roof.
Looking at the list above, LOTS of QB's fall into at least one of those categories, with the only exceptions being Case Keenum and Andy Dalton. Put another way, of all the QB's NE has to face the rest of the way, the only one that has a win against them is Andy Dalton.
vs NYJ (Luke Falk - 24 years old, never faced NE . . . 0-0)
at BUF (Josh Allen - 23 years old . . . 0-1)
at WAS (Case Keenum . . . 0-1)
vs NYG (Daniel Jones - rookie, 22 years old, never faced NE . . . 0-0)
at NYJ (Luke Falk - 24 years old . . . 0-0)
vs CLE (Baker Mayfield - 24 years old, never faced NE . . . 0-0)
at BAL (Lamar Jackson - 22 years old, never faced NE . . . 0-0)
at PHI (Carson Wentz - never faced NE . . . 0-0)
vs DAL (Dak Prescott - never faced NE . . . 0-0)
at HOU (DeShaun Watson - 24 years old . . . 0-2)
vs KCC (Patrick Mahomes - 24 years old . . . 0-2)
at CIN (Andy Dalton . . . 1-2)
vs BUF (Josh Allen - 23 years old . . 0-1)
vs MIA (Josh Rosen - 22 years old . . . 0-1 but didn't start)
I forget the exact stats that involve each of the following categories, but here's the summary:
- In TB / BB era, IIRC, NE is undefeated at home against rookie QB's and still very good on the road against rookie QB's.
- Their record against QB's under 25 is insanely good (not many losses)
- Their record against a QB facing them for the first time is also through the roof.
Looking at the list above, LOTS of QB's fall into at least one of those categories, with the only exceptions being Case Keenum and Andy Dalton. Put another way, of all the QB's NE has to face the rest of the way, the only one that has a win against them is Andy Dalton.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
NE again didn't gain much in the 538 weekly ELO point redistribution. They lost ground to other teams after dismantling MIA . . .
SF +37
LAR +29
TB +28
DAL +27
BUF +27
CLE +27
KC +25
SEA +21
BAL +19
DET +18
GB +17
IND +17
ATL +14
NE +13
CHI won and only gained 7 points. HOU won and lost 6 points. I would love to figure out how they score things, as I am not sure a 43-0 blowout should be considered the 14th best win of the week (even if the Dolphins are a semi-pro team).
Here's the updated math from 538 on NE going undefeated . . .
Last week / this week:
NYJ 83% . . . 91%
BUF 68% . . . 66%
WAS 74% . . . 77%
NYG 85% . . . 90%
NYJ 73% . . . 76%
CLE 80% . . . 78%
BAL 52% . . . 51%
PHI 51% . . . 57%
DAL 71% . . . 69%
HOU 61% . . . 64%
KCC 61% . . . 60%
CIN 75% . . . 79%
BUF 80% . . . 79%
MIA 90% . . . 92%
Total chance was 0.64% . . . now 1.1%.
And for those that prefer ESPN's FPI system . . .
Last week / this week:
NYJ 82.0% . . . 89.5%
BUF 71.6% . . . 74.3%
WAS 73.7% . . . 80.1%
NYG 87.2% . . . 91.4%
NYJ 72.4% . . . 82.3%
CLE 80.4% . . . 80.3%
BAL 42.4% . . . 53.0%
PHI 54.2% . . . 63.9%
DAL 72.3% . . . 74.9%
HOU 50.5% . . . 58.2%
KCC 58.2% . . . 60.6%
CIN 73.5% . . . 83.0%
BUF 83.3% . . . 85.4%
MIA 94.8% . . . 97.9%
Total chance was 0.53% . . . now 2.0%.
None of this matters, of course, as the only thing that counts is what happens on the football field.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Week to week update . . .
538:
BUF 68% . . . 66% . . . 65%
WAS 74% . . . 77% . . . 77%
NYG 85% . . . 90% . . . 89%
NYJ 73% . . . 76% . . . 76%
CLE 80% . . . 78% . . . 81%
BAL 52% . . . 51% . . . 54%
PHI 51% . . . 57% . . . 61%
DAL 71% . . . 69% . . . 69%
HOU 61% . . . 64% . . . 59%
KCC 61% . . . 60% . . . 58%
CIN 75% . . . 79% . . . 81%
BUF 80% . . . 79% . . . 78%
MIA 90% . . . 92% . . . 94%
Total chance: 0.64% . . . 1.1% . . . 1.3%
ESPN's FPI
BUF 71.6% . . . 74.3% . . . 75.2%
WAS 73.7% . . . 80.1% . . . 80.3%
NYG 87.2% . . . 91.4% . . . 92.0%
NYJ 72.4% . . . 82.3% . . . 84.0%
CLE 80.4% . . . 80.3% . . . 81.8%
BAL 42.4% . . . 53.0% . . . 54.1%
PHI 54.2% . . . 63.9% . . . 66.1%
DAL 72.3% . . . 74.9% . . . 73.9%
HOU 50.5% . . . 58.2% . . . 54.3%
KCC 58.2% . . . 60.6% . . . 60.0%
CIN 73.5% . . . 83.0% . . . 83.4%
BUF 83.3% . . . 85.4% . . . 86.1%
MIA 94.8% . . . 97.9% . . . 98.8%
Total chance: 0.53% . . . 2.0% . . . 2.3%
538:
BUF 68% . . . 66% . . . 65%
WAS 74% . . . 77% . . . 77%
NYG 85% . . . 90% . . . 89%
NYJ 73% . . . 76% . . . 76%
CLE 80% . . . 78% . . . 81%
BAL 52% . . . 51% . . . 54%
PHI 51% . . . 57% . . . 61%
DAL 71% . . . 69% . . . 69%
HOU 61% . . . 64% . . . 59%
KCC 61% . . . 60% . . . 58%
CIN 75% . . . 79% . . . 81%
BUF 80% . . . 79% . . . 78%
MIA 90% . . . 92% . . . 94%
Total chance: 0.64% . . . 1.1% . . . 1.3%
ESPN's FPI
BUF 71.6% . . . 74.3% . . . 75.2%
WAS 73.7% . . . 80.1% . . . 80.3%
NYG 87.2% . . . 91.4% . . . 92.0%
NYJ 72.4% . . . 82.3% . . . 84.0%
CLE 80.4% . . . 80.3% . . . 81.8%
BAL 42.4% . . . 53.0% . . . 54.1%
PHI 54.2% . . . 63.9% . . . 66.1%
DAL 72.3% . . . 74.9% . . . 73.9%
HOU 50.5% . . . 58.2% . . . 54.3%
KCC 58.2% . . . 60.6% . . . 60.0%
CIN 73.5% . . . 83.0% . . . 83.4%
BUF 83.3% . . . 85.4% . . . 86.1%
MIA 94.8% . . . 97.9% . . . 98.8%
Total chance: 0.53% . . . 2.0% . . . 2.3%
ChiefD
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I don’t think they were going undefeated either way. But they don’t have to do any heavy lifting until November. The line should be healed up by then (not like they have been an issue as of yet). They can let the defense do the work in the early going and should be able to win with relative ease over the first half of the season.
