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fstep

Trade Watkins for Devonta Freeman?

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Normally it wouldn't even be a question, it's a 7th rounder for a 2nd rounder, based on nothing but 1 good week, but Tyreek hill got hurt and Freeman shared time almost evenly and the O-line looked like #### (granted they did play one of the top running defenses). 

 

It's a PPR league. Good trade or nah?

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I would ignore week 1 and make the trade (although not without some trepidation). Hill will come back, Watkins is fragile, and the Falcons won't look this bad every week.

I just made this trade, also in ppr, except it was Watkins + Latavius Murray + Delanie Walker (I have Engram) for Freeman + Lockett + Fant. I hit accept so fast I almost sprained my finger.

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it depends what you need and the draft round is irrelevant now.  It's about need and performance.  If you need a RB take the Freeman side.  If you need a WR take the Watkins side.  Both will be in the middle somewhere of performance over time.  Probably Watkins best game and could have been Freeman's worst. 

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16 hours ago, Gally said:

it depends what you need and the draft round is irrelevant now.  It's about need and performance.  If you need a RB take the Freeman side.  If you need a WR take the Watkins side.  Both will be in the middle somewhere of performance over time.  Probably Watkins best game and could have been Freeman's worst. 

I mean I would put a lot of money on that being watkins best game. Draft round still matters because week 1 is a very poor indicator, especially considering how little they both played in preseason.

The only thing that worried me about freeman is the unexpected time share. Watkins value while hill is out will be very high, but then he's back to the second wr on his team, one who rarely breaks 600 yards in a season.

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6 hours ago, fstep said:

I mean I would put a lot of money on that being watkins best game. Draft round still matters because week 1 is a very poor indicator, especially considering how little they both played in preseason.

The only thing that worried me about freeman is the unexpected time share. Watkins value while hill is out will be very high, but then he's back to the second wr on his team, one who rarely breaks 600 yards in a season.

Thinking draft round matters is one of the biggest fallacies owners make once the season starts.  It really has no bearing on anything moving forward.  You will miss out on great deals and chances to improve if you keep the draft round as part of your evaluation. 

 

Watkins "rarely breaks 600 yards" because of his injury history.  He was productive last year in the game he played and completed.  He had many nagging injuries all year which prohibited him from maximizing snaps and potential.  As long as he is healthy he will be a quality WR whether Hill is back or not.  The problem is he rarely stays healthy. 

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21 hours ago, Gally said:

Thinking draft round matters is one of the biggest fallacies owners make once the season starts.  It really has no bearing on anything moving forward.  You will miss out on great deals and chances to improve if you keep the draft round as part of your evaluation. 

 

Watkins "rarely breaks 600 yards" because of his injury history.  He was productive last year in the game he played and completed.  He had many nagging injuries all year which prohibited him from maximizing snaps and potential.  As long as he is healthy he will be a quality WR whether Hill is back or not.  The problem is he rarely stays healthy. 

Well consider what rounds represent. They represent many months of careful analysis. I would disregard the value of that say 4 weeks into the season, but 1 week really has minimal bearing on season long performance. Not saying Watkins isn't good, but once hill is back in a couple weeks he is still #2 wr on his own team. There's really no team where the 2nd receiving options has more value than the primary rb on what should be (despite week 1) an elite offense

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26 minutes ago, fstep said:

Well consider what rounds represent. They represent many months of careful analysis. I would disregard the value of that say 4 weeks into the season, but 1 week really has minimal bearing on season long performance. Not saying Watkins isn't good, but once hill is back in a couple weeks he is still #2 wr on his own team. There's really no team where the 2nd receiving options has more value than the primary rb on what should be (despite week 1) an elite offense

Round typically represents where the ADP suggests you could get a player.....not necessarily how they will perform.  There is some correlation based on the research you mentioned but it doesn't necessarily hold up in reality.  The round you drafted a player is the round you thought you had to take him if you wanted him on your team.  There are many players I took earlier that I think will have a worse year than someone I drafted later.  The place drafted represented where I thought I had to take a guy to get him on my team.   Once the draft is over that is irrelevant and now it goes to how I think a player is going to perform.  I have no problem trading a "2nd Round player" for a "10th round player" that I believe to be better.  Owners that hold onto the round as being meaningful lose out on value. 

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