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Fanduel Week 2 (1 Viewer)

Zyphros

Zyphros

Footballguy
This is what I do Tuesday morning's so I can start these threads off.  First thoughts for a cash lineup for week 2.   

Goff

Barkley

Zeke

Kupp, Watkins, Tyrell Williams

Darren Waller

Chris Thompson

49ers

Unlike my DK lineup that I came up with, I could of gone Carr here as well, chose not to because the money doesn't quite work out how I like.  Kupp is basically automatic for me this week, same with Barkley and Zeke.  It does worry me a bit with Tyrell and Waller here so I'll look to tinker that a bit.  I don't particularly like any of the RB's at first glance. 

Some of the same thoughts on the RB's.  Chris Thompson and Gio Bernard are great value plays (assuming no Guice and Mixon).  

Matchup wise I like Henry and Sony, but they scare me a lot so I'll likely stay away in cash.  Same with Ingram but usage will constantly worry me in that offense.  Damien Williams looks like a value on Fanduel who knows the workload spread between him and McCoy.  

More value plays: Breida, Mostert, Singletary.  All slightly worrisome, maybe safer on DK with full PPR.  They'll be sprinkled in more of my quarter contests I think than cash lineups. 

 
I decided to go all in with DK/FD this year and skip regular fantasy leagues. Question I have for this week is why are you so high on Kupp? I watched the Houston/Saints game and it seemed like most of Houston's completions were on longer throws and not much underneath. To me Kupp is more of an underneath guy and the Saints seemed  to take that away. I get that it's a short week for the Saints and they will be on the road (and it should be hot come game time) but I see the Rams needing to stretch the ball down the field more. Just my 2 cents and I appreciate reading everything you're throwing out in these 2 threads.

 
I'll probably play about $120-150 in 50/50 cash games this week with maybe another $30 in GPPs. The cash games are much lower variance, so I like to play higher stakes there, while treating the GPPs as more of a pure lottery. So much of the prize pool in GPPs is tied up in the top few spots and you're so unlikely to ever finish that high that I think they're best viewed as almost total punts. I'll probably do the $9 milly and then some $1-2 stuff there just for the off chance of a monster score.

I've started doing some legwork for week 2 and I'm probably going to keep my cash picks to myself since that's where I'll be laying most of my money, but I'm happy to share some of the contrarian GPP picks that look interesting to me for people trying to nail some big weeks on low ownership % players.

QB21 Kyler Murray $6500 - A rookie QB vs. the BAL defense is way too volatile for me to trust in a cash game, but in a GPP he becomes interesting. He's likely to have low ownership % due to the scary matchup, but he chucked the ball 54 times in week 1 and almost seemed to solve the NFL after a single slow half. The QB21 price allows for a lot of flexibility at other positions and gives you a chance at QB1 production for a low price. His WRs are compelling for most of the same reasons.

RB33 Matt Breida $5600 - Unconvincing in Week 1, along with the rest of the SF offense. He was decent last year though and with McKinnon and Coleman hurt, he's essentially the whole backfield. The Bengals are not a super scary match up. There are other RB plays I trust a lot more for cash, but for an oddball pick I think Breida at RB33 money is good value.

WR57 Marquise Goodwin $5200 - This past week illustrated the value of speedy deep threats, as guys like Marquise Brown, DeSean Jackson, John Brown, and Terry McLaurin paid off for anyone who invested in them. Goodwin has a similar ability to score 12 points on a single catch. He and Garoppolo had a very good connection down the stretch in 2017, but that was before Kittle broke out and Pettis/Samuel were drafted. Are there enough opportunities here to support him? Goodwin only had 3 targets in week one and is highly likely to saddle your roster with a 1-5 point performance, making him a suicidal cash play. However, the prospect of a home run, the low cost, and the likely low ownership % combine to make him an intriguing flyer for $1-2 lottery GPP squads. I would also consider Deebo Samuel for $4900, as sooner or later an SF WR is going to score and these are their two most explosive guys.

WR74 Preston Williams $4800 - They're an atrocious team likely to be playing from behind against NE. Williams is an interesting rookie sleeper who may ultimately end up as the best WR on this squad. At WR74 prices, he could rack up some nice garbage time stats as Miami chases the Pats.

WR81 Mecole Hardman $4700 - Tyreek Hill is out and all the attention will be on Watkins/Kelce. We know KC is going to throw the ball and Hardman has the type of speed to bust a long TD. He could be this week's Terry McLaurin.

TE18 Tyler Eifert $4900 - Arguably the best red zone threat on the team, he had a decent 5 targets in week one and is always a threat for a big game when he's healthy.

TE21 Hayden Hurst $4800 - I'm a big Mark Andrews believer (though his week 2 price is no longer great), but don't sleep on Hurst. He's a big-time talent in his own right and managed 3/41 in week one on 4 targets. The lone missed opportunity was a red zone chance from Lamar, which suggests that he's going to be a factor in that part of the field with the first unit even if he's the #3 overall option behind Hollywood and Andrews. All of the ownership in Baltimore's passing game in week 2 will be centered around Andrews/Brown, so if you get a big game from Hurst while those other guys flop then it's a nice scenario for GPP lineups.

 
Updating my cash lineup, just talking things out in my head and writing it down helps.  

Goff

Ekeler, Zeke, Chris Thompson

Kupp, Boyd, Tyrell

Kelce

49ers

Chris Thompson makes me a bit nervous as AP could get a lot of that work.  It strikes me as the only place to save on FD though.  There are no "safer" WR's in the super cheap range I like very much so paying mid tier for Kupp, Boyd and Tyrell seems like I'm forced in a way.  

I could save more by going down to Carr at QB, but then the upgrade at RB from Thompson, puts me at Kerryon and that actually makes me even more uncomfortable. 

 
Not sure how any cash LU can be devoid of at least 1 NE player this week.  Michel seems like a must, perhaps Brady as well and even the Def.

 
Megla said:
Not sure how any cash LU can be devoid of at least 1 NE player this week.  Michel seems like a must, perhaps Brady as well and even the Def.
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A lot of smash spots this week, it's hard to get them all in, and NE is the least predictable of the bunch, I think.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
A lot of smash spots this week, it's hard to get them all in, and NE is the least predictable of the bunch, I think.  
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Mia is about as predictable as it gets, game script dictates some part of the NE running game be a part of your Cash LUs and Michel seems the obvious choice.

 
I think NE is tricky because they have so many viable options. Baltimore was more obvious against them because they have a clear #1 RB and WR. With New England, there are multiple guys at those positions who are liable to go off. Makes it a bit harder to have confidence in any one single player.

It's also why I'm not so keen on the STL WRs. When you have three guys who can be the #1 in any given week, you're playing roulette by picking one of them.

 
EBF said:
I'll probably play about $120-150 in 50/50 cash games this week with maybe another $30 in GPPs. The cash games are much lower variance, so I like to play higher stakes there, while treating the GPPs as more of a pure lottery. So much of the prize pool in GPPs is tied up in the top few spots and you're so unlikely to ever finish that high that I think they're best viewed as almost total punts. I'll probably do the $9 milly and then some $1-2 stuff there just for the off chance of a monster score.
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Last year the gpp payout lines were often similar to cash.  I played zero cash last year and ground out a decent profit.  Basically cashed enough gpps to tread water until something hit for a decent amount.

 
Managed to get several overlays in Thurs-Mon contests. $1 GPPs: 543/1176 and 674/1176 and a $2 double-up: 116/170. There were quite a few more, but I waited a bit too long to start jumping. 

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
Managed to get several overlays in Thurs-Mon contests. $1 GPPs: 543/1176 and 674/1176 and a $2 double-up: 116/170. There were quite a few more, but I waited a bit too long to start jumping. 
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0 clue how you do this.  Feels like every time I get excited that games are looking like they wont fill and hop in, they seem to magically fill with a minute left before start.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
0 clue how you do this.  Feels like every time I get excited that games are looking like they wont fill and hop in, they seem to magically fill with a minute left before start.  
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I do it via the mobile app for iOS. Build your lineup for the slate and enter it into a contest. Then wait until about 2:00 before the slate locks. Then start looking. At about 1:00 to go, start jumping into contests that aren’t close to filling. Some may fill. If so, it’s not the end of the world. On Thurs-Mon I will typically fade Thurs completely, so my lineup is really immaterial w/ the late swap. This week I played Carolina DST and McCaffery tho. Just to give me a reason to watch this boring game. 

 
$6 in $25 out.  Finished 9th in a 4th Q gpp.   Have two $1 entries sitting on 30%+ overlay that faded the game tonight and avoided a 67%+ owned McCaffey. 

 
Updated cash lineup

Goff

Zeke, Kamara, Ekeler

Westbrook, Gallup, Tyrell

Delanie

49ers (might move this to the Jags or Rams)

Went off Kupp because he's more of a DK play I think in full PPR.  Added in Kamara because I can see them being behind a lot on the road.  Westbrook is the eye of Minshew and he was the focal point of the offense in the pass game.  Scheming for him specifically a lot.  Gallup is actually a 1b not a #2.  And Delanie. 

My "alternative" thought's were going off Goff down to Carr again and paying a little more for Andrews and find an upgraded WR.  Also going off Goff to Carr gives an extra $1100 which if I moved down to the Rams D instead of the 49ers (extra $100), it could get me Kittle.  Don't particularly like the feel of that one though.  

 
Mahommes

Kamara

Ekeler

Watkins

Hardman / Hardman / Kirk

Benjamin

Kittle / Waller / Kelce

Breida / Carson / Breida

NE D / Balt D / NYG

 
Going to try a cash LU on FD this week.  My placeholder:

Mahomes - Jacobs/Ekeler/Kamara - J.Brown/Gallup/Hardman - Andrews - NE

 
BassNBrew said:
992 entries x $3 = $2976 / $2500 = 1.1904

LOL...now they have moved from 19% to 19.04%.

Pure outright greed.
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I’m not sure your math is right. They’re paying out 84% ($2500/$2976) of the buy-in, or keeping 16%. Your math is based on the pay-out, not buy-in. $476 (the rake) is 16% of the buy-in.

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
I’m not sure your math is right. They’re paying out 84% ($2500/$2976) of the buy-in, or keeping 16%. Your math is based on the pay-out, not buy-in. $476 (the rake) is 16% of the buy-in.
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Doh...thanks for correcting me.  That's a little more palatable.

 
Cash LU: QB/ Prescott, RB/ Kamara - Ekeler, WR/ Edelman - T. Boyd - Tyrell Williams, TE/ D. Walker, FLEX/ C. Carson, DEF/ NYG

Trying the pay-down theory again at DEF; Allen may throw for a lot of yards & a few TD's, but, he can also turn the ball over.

Seems like Tyrell Williams is getting the volume, although one game is a small sample. But I can see the Raiders throwing a lot again this week. T. Boyd is the biggest question mark, in A. J. Greens absence. Ross was the superstar last week, but, Boyd still had 8 grabs on 11 targets for 60 yds. Prescott, Kamara, Ekeler, Carson & Edelman are all gonna get theirs - I think the floor for them all is pretty safe. Walker looked like the Delanie of two years ago; liking him at only $5,900. On the IVC, 129.3 points.

 
I play in a 20 team league, winner each week gets 100 with a 250 season buy in. Have to swing for the fences, here are my pics:

Minshew

Barkley

Damian Williams

Hardman

Kupp

Mike Thomas

Hockenson

Kamara

Cards D

Within reason, want LAR/NOS stack in the lineup. Gambling on Minshew and Hardman to present upside.

 
Here is where my cash game line up currently sits...

Mahomes, Kamara, Ekeler, Carson, T. Williams, Boyd, McLaurin, Engram, NYG

I am not excited by the group of WRs for cash game, but after paying up for Mahomes, Kamara, Ekeler, Carson, and Engram, I think they can produce enough to profit.  Williams and Boyd are "go to guys" for their respective teams and and McLaurin will certainly be playing from behind.  

 
Shermanator said:
anyone have a good feel on AP this week? he's cheap and starting
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I played one gpp entry (the freebie loyalty reward) and I put Peterson into my lineup.  He is cheap...hoping he could get a couple goal line carries, but I don't think he has a whole lot of upside.  It is hard to imagine a game script against Dallas that works in his favor.  They should be playing from behind which might speak well for Thompson over Peterson.  I do not have him in my cash line up.

 
Shermanator said:
anyone have a good feel on AP this week? he's cheap and starting
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Nope.  I wouldn't do it personally unless its GPP.  No pass catching, and likely from behind.  He'll get some work, and he could very well have a TD or 2, but the floor isn't there for cash.  

So the real answer is it depends on what you're looking for.  At 4800 he isn't a bad tournament play.  

At that price, I'd rather go Burkhead who could get a lot of work (or none) but at least I know if he's involved he'll be rocking a lot of the pass catching along with the rushing upside of a likely blowout.  

 
I’m having to force myself off of Carr, Tyrell, and/or Waller in some builds. It’s not easy tho. If there’s ever been a game script for a passing game w/ 2 cheap receivers, it’s that game. 

 
As expected, playing mostly cash with a few GPPs sprinkled in. I feel a lot less confident in my picks this week, but hopefully I can scrape out some good results. I have lots of different lineups, but most of them are centered around this group of players:

QB: Brees ($8000), Stafford ($7000)

RB: Barkley ($9200), Kamara ($8700), Elliott ($8500)

WR: Golladay ($6600), Boyd ($6300), Tyrell Williams ($5900), Fitzgerald ($5500)

TE: Engram ($6400), Andrews ($6100)

FLEX: Jacobs ($6500), Singletary ($5700), Breida ($5600)

DEF: Houston ($4800), Chicago ($4500)

My default strategy was to go Zeke and Kamara at RB. I feel like it makes sense to go big at RB this week and get guys who are likely to see a high volume of touches. Part of the reason why I like this option is because there are so many cheap WRs who figure to see a lot of targets. I expect to see a lot of Boyd, Tyrell, and Fitzgerald in teams because their prices dictate that you pick them. Fitz had 13 targets in week 1 and the Cardinals are likely to be chasing the game again today, and they stick him with a WR42 price tag? I feel like you almost have to pick him. Hopefully it's not a trap.

I had a lot of trouble settling on a favorite flex, so I ended up splitting it almost evenly between Jacobs, Singletary, and Breida. I hope they don't totally kill me. All of them seem like decent propositions at the price, but I don't exactly trust any of them.

My GPP teams feature some of the same players, but in those I also mixed in some volatile people like Garoppolo, Dalton, Fuller, J Gordon, Eifert, Goodwin, C Kirk, and K Murray, and some funky contrarian picks like Hurst and Deebo.

 
Brees on about 60% of my entries. Ugghh....

Was shaping up to be a great week, too.

 
Galileo said:
Here is where my cash game line up currently sits...

Mahomes, Kamara, Ekeler, Carson, T. Williams, Boyd, McLaurin, Engram, NYG

I am not excited by the group of WRs for cash game, but after paying up for Mahomes, Kamara, Ekeler, Carson, and Engram, I think they can produce enough to profit.  Williams and Boyd are "go to guys" for their respective teams and and McLaurin will certainly be playing from behind.  
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I'm trying to make my afternoon run with Mahomes, Kamara, and Williams...I've caught up to the field (was behind early) and am now straddling the 50 mark in my 50/50s.

 
Galileo said:
I'm trying to make my afternoon run with Mahomes, Kamara, and Williams...I've caught up to the field (was behind early) and am now straddling the 50 mark in my 50/50s.
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I forgot to switch out a couple players.  I am 10pts behind for my main cash LU and thought I would be OK with Kamara/Watkins/Woods left to go.    So far, not so much.  

 
Bad bad bad week.  Live and learn, a few glaring mistakes that I just overlooked this week.  Cash is suppose to be safe, and I failed to see a few things that just aren't safe.  Hindsight 20/20 right.  

Oh well onto next week now.  

 
Galileo said:
I'm trying to make my afternoon run with Mahomes, Kamara, and Williams...I've caught up to the field (was behind early) and am now straddling the 50 mark in my 50/50s.
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Looks like I hung on...121.42.  Entered Twenty-five $2 50/50s.  Highest finish was 34th...low was 50th in 2 of the contests.   Wow... $50 in...$90 out.  Wasn't pretty, but it worked out.

I was worried about the WRs in my line up and it turned out it was the can't miss RBs that nearly did me in.

 
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Lost half of what I wagered. Double poo burger from Kamara and Brees killed me lots of places.

Second straight week I've had high involvement with a big $$$ player who got injured early in the game (Tyreek in week 1). Super annoying.

Onward and upward. Still have a healthy nest egg to mess around with.

 
I had one entry in the milly maker in week 1 and one entry in week 2.  QB week one was Nick Foles.  QB week two was Big Ben.  :hot:  

 
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