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Is Waiver Wire Week One The Greatest Waiver Wire Week? Which One Is... (1 Viewer)

rockaction

rockaction

Footballguy
Been thinking about it historically. This thread might drop like a lead balloon but for those with fifteen-plus years of experience, what seems to be the week wherein one reaps the most benefits? Which positions seem to ebb and flow at what times?

I ask this because it always seems like WR has its breakouts in the first three weeks and RB around Weeks 11-onward. QBs vary, etc.

Is it all dart shots and specific opportunity, or do you see trends? 

 
Week 1 is always the best week, but 2019 seems more bountiful than usual.

I read that Hollywood Brown had the best debut for a WR since Anquan Boldin, and it reminded me that I spent my entire FAAB budget on Boldin that year and ended up winning my league because of it.

 
my league is way too good and most of these guys arent available on the wire.

some are. john ross and malcom brown are..

w the #1 waiver pick, SF# selects.... Malcom Brown

Hope it's the right choice.

 
Soulfly3 said:
my league is way too good and most of these guys arent available on the wire.

some are. john ross and malcom brown are..

w the #1 waiver pick, SF# selects.... Malcom Brown

Hope it's the right choice.
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Yeah, most guys aren't on the wire and my main league. Actually, I drafted Hollywood and dropped him for depth (A.J. Brown) when it turned out he was barely playing and played Game Four of the preseason.

Oops. Now he's just sitting there. And I dropped A.J. for TE depth, hoping to score.

Oops again. 

 
People have to assess which is more relevant, 4 weeks of preseason evidence or 1 week of regular season games. There are people who are going to blow their load on a guy who may never matter due to confirmation bias, and other will pass on guys who become league winners. I'm currently on that situation with Marquise Brown (hard pass).

 
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Walking Boot said:
Week 1 is where the bad drafters catch up, so it's the biggest week.
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Or where you reassess your team if you drafted early and went, like, say...Damien Williams at the end of the third and Josh Gordon as your WR3. Whoopsies. Then you're not necessarily a bad drafter, you're just ####ed. 

 
rockaction said:
Or where you reassess your team if you drafted early and went, like, say...Damien Williams at the end of the third and Josh Gordon as your WR3. Whoopsies. Then you're not necessarily a bad drafter, you're just ####ed. 
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This seems okay to me?

 
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Weebs210 said:
This seems okay to me?
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Ugh. FBG just gave him a six point projection. Consider he only had about four targets against Pittsburgh and made do with those to the tune of about 13.50 standard and then throw in Brown and Dorsett into the mix.

The one thing: They can't really bracket him in coverage with Brown on the other side.

 
wasnt Tom Brady a week 1 WW pickup way back when? I remember picking him up in my league figuring what the heck why not. turned out great 

 
IDP leagues week 1 is always the best. 

Many 1st or 2nd year IDPers who were hurt last year have come out to promising starts. Many went undrafted because people forgot about them. 

It’s one main reason that after the blue chip players are gone, I wait until the last 7-8-9 rounds to fill out my defense. I know imma likely drop a bunch of em every year. 

As for offense; while week one offers some opportunity, any week is the best week of the right player gets injured. 

If Shady & DWill both sprain their nutsack in week 2, then week 2 will be a season changer for whoever lands DThompson (assuming he was dropped) since the feature back of KC Will then be available.

so that could be any week. 

But in general week 1 is IDP gold. 

 
The Frankman said:
People have to assess which is more relevant, 4 weeks of preseason evidence or 1 week of regular season games. There are people who are going to blow their load on a guy who may never matter due to confirmation bias, and other will pass on guys who become league winners. I'm currently on that situation with Marquise Brown (hard pass).
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Week 1 is more important but it’s still just one of the 16 data points we get throughout the year. Pick any random week and you get random performances. For example since my name is 80s, I’ll look at week 8 last year: 

Derrick Carr was the QB3 that week. Kenyan Drake has 90/2. Lamar Miller had 133/1. Marin Jones was the WR2 that week while Juju had 33 yards and Golladay had 1 for 12. Imagine how differently people would have been reacting to these guys if that randomness happens week 1 instead of week 8.

 
Ilov80s said:
Week 1 is more important but it’s still just one of the 16 data points we get throughout the year. Pick any random week and you get random performances. For example since my name is 80s, I’ll look at week 8 last year: 

Derrick Carr was the QB3 that week. Kenyan Drake has 90/2. Lamar Miller had 133/1. Marin Jones was the WR2 that week while Juju had 33 yards and Golladay had 1 for 12. Imagine how differently people would have been reacting to these guys if that randomness happens week 1 instead of week 8.
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I personally think it's not the results, it's the usage. The playing time, the targets when they're not match-up dependent. So much is left unsettled in the now-unplayed preseason that we only catch a glimpse of what teams will do throughout the year in these first games. It's like they just had the Week Three dress rehearsal of preseason, but the day before yesterday and yesterday. 

I personally see at least a bunch of things this year that make my head kind of swivel a bit. They're not really being written about, but they're there. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
IDP leagues week 1 is always the best. 

Many 1st or 2nd year IDPers who were hurt last year have come out to promising starts. Many went undrafted because people forgot about them. 

It’s one main reason that after the blue chip players are gone, I wait until the last 7-8-9 rounds to fill out my defense. I know imma likely drop a bunch of em every year. 

As for offense; while week one offers some opportunity, any week is the best week of the right player gets injured. 

If Shady & DWill both sprain their nutsack in week 2, then week 2 will be a season changer for whoever lands DThompson (assuming he was dropped) since the feature back of KC Will then be available.

so that could be any week. 

But in general week 1 is IDP gold. 
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So who you got in IDP?  I didnt see as many breakout stars on that side of the ball as usual this week.

 
rockaction said:
I personally think it's not the results, it's the usage. The playing time, the targets when they're not match-up dependent. So much is left unsettled in the now-unplayed preseason that we only catch a glimpse of what teams will do throughout the year in these first games. It's like they just had the Week Three dress rehearsal of preseason, but the day before yesterday and yesterday. 

I personally see at least a bunch of things this year that make my head kind of swivel a bit. They're not really being written about, but they're there. 
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Such as?

 
Ilov80s said:
Such as?
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I'll play one that just pops on an eye test: Devonta Freeman looks like he's running in quicksand. Smith is average at best, but Freeman looked like he was swimming into a current of purple out there. That was bad news. I know YPC and sample sizes and all that, but all things constant, the difference was stark both in looks and in stats. 

I've never been a Freeman guy, though. I always thought he was East/West without enough wiggle to pull it off if he didn't have his full health. Now he doesn't. And now that his line is suspect and his usage about to be, it might be time to try and foist him on someone unsuspecting while reeling in someone on the upswing.

 
rockaction said:
I'll play one that just pops on an eye test: Devonta Freeman looks like he's running in quicksand. Smith is average at best, but Freeman looked like he was swimming into a current of purple out there. That was bad news. I know YPC and sample sizes and all that, but all things constant, the difference was stark both in looks and in stats. 

I've never been a Freeman guy, though. I always thought he was East/West without enough wiggle to pull it off if he didn't have his full health. Now he doesn't. And now that his line is suspect and his usage about to be, it might be time to try and foist him on someone unsuspecting while reeling in someone on the upswing.
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Didn't see the game but I was in the camp that he was done as well. He was small and an inferior athlete and when injuries/wear hit a guy like that, it can fall apart quick. Good thought and I will take a closer look at Ito. 

 
Arodin said:
So who you got in IDP?  I didnt see as many breakout stars on that side of the ball as usual this week.
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There are quite a few. Not necessarily “break outs” but guys like Kyzir White, who was on a hot pace before his injury ended his season last year (9 tkl, huge snap count) & Xavier Woods, 3rd year S in Dallas was all over the field.

even old dude Suggs looked awesome & I don’t think a lot of people had faith in him. 

I have a few more but I fear my league mates might be on this forum. ;)  

 
Ilov80s said:
Didn't see the game but I was in the camp that he was done as well. He was small and an inferior athlete and when injuries/wear hit a guy like that, it can fall apart quick. Good thought and I will take a closer look at Ito. 
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Yeah, I'm not sure that Ito is worth all that. I'm thinking for Freeman owners or people getting an unsuspecting sell. I know that in my main league the Deshaun Watson owner (I screwed up in the fourth and fifth turn and didn't take him, but took A-Rob and J. Gordon instead, before A. Brown, of course) rosters him and Damien Williams so I may package Michel and Roethlisberger or McCoy and Roethlisberger to pry Watson away.

I had a braincramp during the draft and forgot Watson was still there (I assumed he'd been picked and was on a W/R/T screen).

 
rockaction said:
Yeah, I'm not sure that Ito is worth all that. I'm thinking for Freeman owners or people getting an unsuspecting sell. I know that in my main league the Deshaun Watson owner (I screwed up in the fourth and fifth turn and didn't take him, but took A-Rob and J. Gordon instead, before A. Brown, of course) rosters him and Damien Williams so I may package Michel and Roethlisberger or McCoy and Roethlisberger to pry Watson away.

I had a braincramp during the draft and forgot Watson was still there (I assumed he'd been picked and was on a W/R/T screen).
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Fair. I was just thinking the end of a bench spot on Ito now isn't a bad move- try to catch it before Freeman craps out. It still is likely to be a high scoring offense and the Vikings are a stout D. I get the idea going after Watson but neither Michel nor McCoy nor Ben did anything to make me want to give up Watson for them. 

 
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Ilov80s said:
Fair. I was just thinking the end of a bench spot on Ito now isn't a bad move- try to catch it before he Freeman craps out. It still is likely to be a high scoring offense and the Vikings are a stout D. I get the idea going after Watson but neither Michel nor McCoy nor Ben did anything to make me want to give up Watson for them. 
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I see that. And I wasn't telling you what to do about Smith other than I've never really been sold on him after rostering Coleman last year and watching that snap count division play itself out with no regard for talent. (Coleman was the much better back last year, which may not be the case this year.)

As for my own league, I think I need to let it wait a week on the Roethlisberger/Michel/McCoy/Watson dynamic. I don't even want an RB back. Just here's Ben and Michel or Ben and Mccoy. Freeman and D. Williams as your RB1 and RB2 is a now a mirage slipping away as we speak. Do the points make sense?

But I had something long typed up and it got deleted because I was going to go into how you have to see how some guys are going to force situations in their favor or have situations fall to them, and I was going to use a WR example.

 
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Dizzy said:
Always hoping to hit on the next 1999 Kurt Warner!
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That was my first season playing FF. On a Yahoo league. I'd been given Trent Green in an autodraft. So, logically, I picked up his backup. Plug and play. Had no idea what I'd gotten myself into, researched every week tirelessly, worked the waiver wire all season (there was IDP too), and won the championship. I thought I was a FF god. Been hooked on it ever since. After all this time, if there's one thing I've learned: turns out I really suck at fantasy football.

 
I love week 1 waivers.  Players who break out will often break out week 1.  The team sees that they are primed to breakout during the preseason and the player will often be featured from the get-go.

This week 1 waiver wire is especially intriguing because so many of the receivers who had big games were talked up by their teams and local beat writers during training camp and the preseason.  So when you hear all summer that Crowder could get 100 receptions, it's hard not to get excited about him when he gets 14 in the first game. 

And for those who are saying that most of these players aren't available in your leagues, that is entirely dependent on roster size.  If your league has 18 or 20 man rosters, then your waiver wire isn't stacked with nice pickups.  But leagues with 14 and 16 man rosters have tons of nice pickups.

 
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Last year redraft....Conner week one

D.Williams whatever week numb nuts was suspended and kicked off KC

Rode those two to the championship 

To answer the question though, I'd say generally week one cuz the speculation of the preseason is squashed and you get a clear picture of what's the what.

 
Manster said:
To answer the question though, I'd say generally week one cuz the speculation of the preseason is squashed and you get a clear picture of what's the what.
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Yeah, that's a large part of it. No more hiding cards, they're generally on the table.

Unless you're the NEP. Then you play hide the puppet all year.

Not in the dirty way. 

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Brown, but not the WR.  LAR are good enough to support 2 rbs and the main guy has bad knees. Solid floor with high upside.
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I'm a Gurley owner and am strongly considering picking him up and playing both.  If week 1 is an indication, you should get fairly consistent RB1/RB2 play, just not sure which one of them will fill each role.  Of course you're ####ed in week 9...

 
-jb- said:
I'm a Gurley owner and am strongly considering picking him up and playing both.  If week 1 is an indication, you should get fairly consistent RB1/RB2 play, just not sure which one of them will fill each role.  Of course you're ####ed in week 9...
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I own both Kamara and Murray, similar situation here. I'll deal with bye weeks later.

 
and back to rockactions thread intention - i feel like week one used to have one or two players that are head and shoulders above the rest.  not the case this year.  a ton of WRs lottery tickets, and malcolm brown.

 
-jb- said:
and back to rockactions thread intention
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Feel free to shoot the proverbial you-know-what. Consider it a catch-all for whatever you want to say about guys and Week One, whether specific or general. It's going to sink to the bottom of the page at some point anyway, so go ahead. Even if you want to make a comment and haven't played as long as the OP was asking, what the heck, chime in and we can value it based on what people give us as background info. 

 
How did everybody do? For me, more exciting is who gets dropped for these WW1 gems. Cohen was just cut in my league. Seeing as I just grabbed Chris Thompson, I think I'll try revolving door him out for Tarik.  

 
In one league I outbid everybody for Marquise, A.J., and Malcolm Brown. I went early this year with spending. 

Also got Slye and Carolina in normal fashion add/drop.

I'm pretty happy with my haul in that league. I have A-Rob and Josh Gordon as WR1 and WR2 in that one, so I needed some WR help.

 
I wound up not doing anything as the league I really focus on has an extremely short bench.  We are also old school and have waiver order, which I have pole position on.  The guys that went:

John Brown

John Ross

Michael Gallup

Chris Thompson

Marquise Brown

Adrian Peterson

I was looking at Malcolm Brown most as I have Gurley, and he is still a FA.  I would need to give up Shady or Montgomery to make room, though.  Not worth it atm.

ETA, also considering grabbing Crowder, Sutton, Amendola or McLaurin, but would need to give up either Kirk or Metcalf to do so.  Any thoughts on this one?

 
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I love the first week of waivers because of the drops.  There's always a panicked owner dropping someone off the bottom of their roster that I wanted during the draft but got beat to (Justice Hill is a great example....I've got Ingram so Hill is more valuable to me than some shiny new waiver pickup that will ride my bench next week.)

 
rockaction said:
Been thinking about it historically. This thread might drop like a lead balloon but for those with fifteen-plus years of experience, what seems to be the week wherein one reaps the most benefits? Which positions seem to ebb and flow at what times?

I ask this because it always seems like WR has its breakouts in the first three weeks and RB around Weeks 11-onward. QBs vary, etc.

Is it all dart shots and specific opportunity, or do you see trends? 
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It is league/team dependent.  If there is someone sitting out there that would start over your guys, you should grab them.  For a bad team, that is now.  For a good team, that is closer to the playoffs/after a big injury.

 
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