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***Official Donald J. Trump Impeachment (Whistleblower) Thread*** (8 Viewers)

Correction- I guess Sondland claimed in his revision that while he understood there was a quid pro quo, nobody instructed him about it. Huh? Wondering how he survives this. 
I pointed this out the other day. They are going to have to get someone who heard it directly from Trump. Assuming that's what he meant and him saying "do me a favor" is not enough, imo.
This isn't even the standard in a court of law.  To be guilty of quid pro quo, you don't have to utter the words "quid pro quo" or even frame your "request" in the form of "if I do x for you I expect y from you in return".  "Do me a favor" is the floor on this.  With all the other validation and verification it seems crystal clear in context.

 
Yes this would have definitely been toeing/over the line, but would have been light years better than asking a foreign government to do it. 
If the reports are accurate then Trump did more than ask Ukraine to investigate his political opponent.  He was holding back badly needed military aid AND demanding that Ukraine make a formal and public announcement that Biden was under investigation.

If these two allegations are true I do not see how any American citizen would be okay with it

 
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I pointed this out the other day. They are going to have to get someone who heard it directly from Trump. Assuming that's what he meant and him saying "do me a favor" is not enough, imo.
I think that’s partially why they picked the schedule that they did and didn’t lead off with Sondland. I believe he heard it directly from Trump and has shown that he will bend and get closer to the truth when it becomes clear that he has to cover his ###. Lead into his testimony with a few witnesses hammering him and his role and him memory might be better.

I still think it will be a major blunder to not wait and get Bolton involved. He quit the same day that the whistleblower info reach the White House and the aid released. I’m guessing there were some explosive confrontations.

 
Not to pad myself on the back, but with Romney back in the fold it would seem these "changes" will be miniscule. 

Hopefully the hearings will have an effect on the supposed "undecided" in the public because it seems they'll have no effect on Capitol Hill
The change that I predicted will be in the form of public opinion. I certainly wish and hope it will affect Republican Senators as well but that doesn’t seem likely. 

 
The wife and I were watching the evening news coverage on the impeachment hearings tomorrow. We don't talk about politics much (I save that for FBGs). Out of the blue she says, "do they have anyone that confirms what the whistle blower is saying happened"? We spent the next 20 minutes discussing how we go to this point. She asked why there was no impeachment after the Meuller Report. Why now? 

I asked her if she was okay with Trump asking Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden? I asked her why he would need to secretly ask Ukraine to do something that he could ask our own intelligence agency to do. Or why he would hide the call in a special server if the call was perfect?  She said that she was okay with Trump asking a foreign country to investigate a U.S. Citizen and a political opponent, "If there was corruption". 

She also said that the impeachment process has no bearing on her vote next fall. She believes that both sides are wasting time on the process and she doesn't know who to trust at this point. Therefore, she is going to throw out both sides unless there is a smoking gun found in Trumps hand. 

BTW, I didn't yell at her or call her names. I told her I hoped she would listen to the testimony over the next month with an open mind. The outcome of this process will determine how future presidents will use their power to effect elections. The snarkiest thing I said was that she won't be able to complain about it 10 years from now, when someone else has pushed things even further. 
I am sure you did everything to sway her....except to simply print out the phone call, let her read it, and make up her own mind.

 
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The lesson I'm learning from this is that there are a lot of people who pay lip service (very loudly at times) to adhering to the Constitution and rule of law, who are actually just fine with circumventing both if they think it will lead to particular outcomes they desire.
I've been convinced for a long time that most people are terrible when it comes to "process" arguments.  If there's an established process that stands in the way of getting the outcome they want, 90% of so of folks will gleefully toss the process overboard.  The political class in particular is becoming much more open about that.  

 
Per CNN a new strategy by Republicans is emerging, even beyond the memo from yesterday: 

BLAME RUDY! 

According to this defense, Rudy Giuliani did all of this without Trump’s direct knowledge. He “went rogue.” But there is a problem here: implicit in this argument is the idea that wrongdoing occurred. President Trump refuses to accept that. In fact, all reporting is that Trump is frustrated with Republican attempts to argue process and blaming others. He wants to take full credit for the policy and he insists that the argument be there was nothing wrong. 

 
Per CNN a new strategy by Republicans is emerging, even beyond the memo from yesterday: 

BLAME RUDY! 

According to this defense, Rudy Giuliani did all of this without Trump’s direct knowledge. He “went rogue.” But there is a problem here: implicit in this argument is the idea that wrongdoing occurred. President Trump refuses to accept that. In fact, all reporting is that Trump is frustrated with Republican attempts to argue process and blaming others. He wants to take full credit for the policy and he insists that the argument be there was nothing wrong. 
Hasn't Rudy already said he was acting on behalf of Trump?

 
I am sure you did everything to sway her....except to simply print out the phone call, let her read it, and make up her own mind.
I wish I could read that phone call. Unfortunately all we have is a very edited summary. But even that was terrible. Hopefully these witnesses will fill us in on the larger policy involved. 

 
Per CNN a new strategy by Republicans is emerging, even beyond the memo from yesterday: 

BLAME RUDY! 

According to this defense, Rudy Giuliani did all of this without Trump’s direct knowledge. He “went rogue.” But there is a problem here: implicit in this argument is the idea that wrongdoing occurred. President Trump refuses to accept that. In fact, all reporting is that Trump is frustrated with Republican attempts to argue process and blaming others. He wants to take full credit for the policy and he insists that the argument be there was nothing wrong. 
So it was Rudy who was doing the talking on that phone call with the Ukranian leader?

 
I wish I could read that phone call. Unfortunately all we have is a very edited summary. But even that was terrible. Hopefully these witnesses will fill us in on the larger policy involved. 
or at the very least, their feelings.

 
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No.
My impression is that it is just about the 2016 election.
That is an odd impression given Trump's actions and requests of Ukraine didn't happen during the election.

Ive read the complaint and the impeachment documentation...none of it talks about it just being about the 2016 election.  Can you unpack that a bit?

 
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That is an odd impression given Trump's actions and requests of Ukraine didn't happen during the election.

Ive read the complaint and the impeachment documentation...none of it talks about it just being about the 2016 election.  Can you unpack that a bit?
I'm sure.

 
I pointed this out the other day. They are going to have to get someone who heard it directly from Trump. Assuming that's what he meant and him saying "do me a favor" is not enough, imo.
Chris Christie is a former state Attorney General. He said this before the summary of the call was released:

"For instance, if he's saying, listen, do me a favor, go investigate Joe Biden, that's one thing," [Chris] Christie offered, adding "If he's saying, listen, I'm concerned about corruption, you've just gotten elected. we send hundreds of millions of dollars over there, you need to start looking at this, for instance, one of the things that occurred was the Hunter Biden situation, that becomes totally different."

 
I am sure you did everything to sway her....except to simply print out the phone call, let her read it, and make up her own mind.
Printer was broken. So, I wrote down what I could remember and let her read that. 

She will always make up her own mind. After 29 years of marriage, that's the only think I know as fact.  

 
The change that I predicted will be in the form of public opinion. I certainly wish and hope it will affect Republican Senators as well but that doesn’t seem likely. 
Are you seriously believing that republican voters will no longer support Trump after these hearings? 

I'm not so optimistic. There was no spin machine in full effect during watergate

 
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I wonder if the Crowdstrike tinhat nonsense that Trump mentioned on the call will get mentioned and fleshed out a bit.

Would like to know what the average voter would think about our President discussing insane conspiracy theories with our allies. 

 
The fact that the whistleblower testifying (or not) at the hearings is still a live issue with theoretical independents following this impeachment suggests to me that the GOP is again winning on controlling the narrative. 
 

Further, KC’s wife’s comments, while anecdotal, likely represent (unfortunately in my view) how a lot of people look at this issue.  If Biden was corrupt, then Trump gets a pass for using non-state actors to expose that corruption.  
 

And, it is the assumption under-pining that view - Biden being corrupt -  that actually has no evidentiary support or foundation.  But that is where Rush and Hannity come in.  They will spread misinformation on that topic with such regularity and without any foundation, that it becomes part of the underlying fabric informing opinion on the whole investigation.  
 
I suppose the Democrats could counter this by claiming (over and over) that the Trumpers refusal to comply with subpeonas is proof that they are guilty.   

 
I've been convinced for a long time that most people are terrible when it comes to "process" arguments.  If there's an established process that stands in the way of getting the outcome they want, 90% of so of folks will gleefully toss the process overboard.  The political class in particular is becoming much more open about that.  
I think this is a fairly solid observation. From the Dems' side (I know you aren't one of us down deep inside), it fuels our suspicions that the Repubs will shortchange voting rights in order to keep winning elections with a minority of votes cast. We think that they fear the consequences of losing an election much more than they're concerned with limiting the rights of all our citizens.

 
Are you seriously belueving that republican voters will no longer support Trump after these hearings? 

I'm not so optimistic. There was no spin machine in full effect during watergate
Not a chance.   In my opinion the only thing that could swing a few Republican voters would be a significant downturn in the economy and even then they would likely blame it on the Democrats.   Everyone is dug in and I don't think a clear quid pro quo or anything else regarding this impeachment is going to matter.

 
The biggest issue with this process is that probably 80% of the people have made their minds up.  So they probably won't watch.  Or they will watch something that is tied to their team.   Hell I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of Republicans Senators don't even watch the hearings.  At least Graham admits he won't pay attention.

 
Are you seriously belueving that republican voters will no longer support Trump after these hearings? 

I'm not so optimistic. There was no spin machine in full effect during watergate
Here’s what I seriously believe: Republican voters will support Trump throughout these impeachment proceedings. They will unite with the diehard Trump supporters and strongly support the Republican Senators when they unanimously vote not to convict. 

And then...they will know that they did something wrong. They will know that they allowed this President to get away with it. And though very few of them will vote for the Democrat, a whole lot of them will stay home in November. There will be little enthusiasm for another 4 years of Trump. That’s what I seriously believe. 

 
I wonder if the Crowdstrike tinhat nonsense that Trump mentioned on the call will get mentioned and fleshed out a bit.

Would like to know what the average voter would think about our President discussing insane conspiracy theories with our allies. 
Average informed voter...probably not very happy with it.

Average voter that seems to be into what ever Trump does?  Yeah...look at Crowdstrike.  Why were they the only ones to look at anything...why did the FBI only rely on their partial report...(and yes, I know those things aren't what actually happened...but excuses I have seen by the Trump crowd in places).

 
Here’s what I seriously believe: Republican voters will support Trump throughout these impeachment proceedings. They will unite with the diehard Trump supporters and strongly support the Republican Senators when they unanimously vote not to convict. 

And then...they will know that they did something wrong. They will know that they allowed this President to get away with it. And though very few of them will vote for the Democrat, a whole lot of them will stay home in November. There will be little enthusiasm for another 4 years of Trump. That’s what I seriously believe. 
I don't share your belief. At all.

 
George Conway just now on MSNBC:

"I don't frankly want to be on television. But I just don't get why people can't see this and why people are refusing to see this. It's appalling to me." 

 
You believe the Democrats planned to impeach Trump so that he could be cleared in the Senate? And that if they planned it in 2016, they would wait until 2019? 

If that was the plan, it seems like a pretty stupid plan. 
You shouldn't set up soft balls like this. 

 
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/what-do-the-democrats-have-to-prove

Nice piece here. Excerpt:

The reality of the situation is that there is overwhelming evidence of the basic facts of the situation. More than a dozen witnesses, almost all of them Trump appointees, tell a consistent story. There’s actually a near transcript of the President doing the deed. The only notional gaps in the evidence come from the absence of people who refuse to testify on the President’s authority. The plot itself involves using extortion to coerce a foreign government to sabotage a federal election on the President’s behalf. This violates two or three major federal laws in addition to being almost a definitional abuse of presidential power.

Certainly it is important to air the evidence publicly, clear up good faith confusions and nudge as many people who believe the President did something wrong but are hesitant about the upheaval of impeachment in the direction of supporting impeachment and removal. But the basic case simply makes itself. The evidence is overwhelming.

These points are all obvious and we owe the President’s defenders the respect of accepting that they realize it’s obvious too. They just have a mix of political, partisan and ideological reasons for justifying the President’s actions and preserving him in power.

As I said above, navigating life, politics and really anything requires understanding where you are and what you’re trying to do. The challenge the country faces today isn’t how well Democrats make some case. It’s that about 35% to 40% of the population wants to maintain a lawless President in office no matter what. That is a political problem not a persuasion problem, with profound roots that long predate Donald Trump and equally profound dangers for the future.

The case, rather than needing to be made in some heroic fashion, really makes itself. The evidence is overwhelming. It’s not the Democrats who are on trial here, needing to prove themselves with some magisterial performance. Indeed, it’s not even really the President whose guilt is obvious and not even questioned with serious arguments. Who and what is on trial here is the Republican party, which has made it pretty clear that they are willing to countenance any level of law breaking and abuses of power so long as it is done by a Republican or at least as long as it is Donald Trump.

The Democrats’ job is to lay out the evidence in a public setting and get elected Republicans to sign on the dotted line that this is presidential behavior they accept and applaud. That won’t be difficult. They have one last chance to change their answer. Democrats real job is to clarify and publicize that that is their answer.

 

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