What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

*** Official Road to the 2020 Belmont Stakes * * * MAXFIELD OUT (1 Viewer)

Enforceable!

23/47 splits on the front, Tapit's boy was 11th outta 13 at the 1/2 call, did some impressive work getting up ... wasn't mentioned again 'til the stretch, where he picked up the whole front runnin' pack - there were no less than half a dozen mules meandering and plodding - the winner chugged home by a called length and a half, with Silver Slate (the only other cat to actually be moving at the end) making a late bid on his heels.  

Casse bags his second LeComte in a row, having the thrilling equine stylings of War of Will take it down last year ... his Tapit progeny got the brisk pace he needed to factor, and took full advantage ... 13 horse fields for such early preps is a hoot, if not an exercise in trainer competence/familiarity. 

matter of fact, Casse has a more ballyhooed animal in Lynn's Map, who scratched outta this one in favor of the Smarty Jones (Oaklawn), which will be run this coming Friday. 

as far as Enforceable's future prospects ... hmmmm.   this was the first outing of his three yr old campaign, but he did notch a rather robust (in the modern game) six starts as a 2 yr old ... took 4 shots in pricey MSWs (2 at Churchill, 2 at the Spa) to finally snag a win ... first two were sprints, then he tried the routes when he landed upstate - was overwhelming chalk in his victory. 

he hung a 92 up in his first stakes, finishing third behind the dust that MAXFIELD kicked up at everyone in the aforementioned in this thread Futurity at Keeneland.  he follwed that up with a flat 4th in the Jockey Gold Cup back at Churchill ... he had no pace to attack in that one. 

i see he was given a 98 fig for yesterday's effort ... not too shabby for this horse - but did he just run the race of his life to now fade back into palookaville - or are we witnessing the ascent of a seasoned 3 yr old closer? 

that's why they run the races ...

 
gonna try and catch up to the preps already run ... we're still in the 10-4-2-1 dole out stages - still roughly a month away from the "win and you're in"  50-20-10-5 affairs (starting with the Risen Star on 2/15 ... hoping to see Enforceable out again for that one, lest Casse ices him 'til La. Derby, where just bagging  show dough will secure him a Churchill gate).

anyways ... first up:

2019 Iroquois - Dennis' Moment

going back 4 months for this one, a mid-September kickoff to the Derby Trail, proper ... 

the Dale Romans trained winner was 9/5 ml fave, banged down to 2/5 come the spring latch - largely due to his previous outing to this one, a 19 length romp in a 7f MSW at the vaunted Ellis Park (ok, i kid on that), but HOLY ####! 

that's a cat that was firing at 100% - look at those fractions! and how easily he motored ... eased up just a smidge at the end, denied the track record. 

serious horse flesh, and he backed it up well enuff in the initial prep ... consequently, after MAXFIELD scratched from the BC Juvey, our boy here was deemed favorite ... then came THIS - on his knees from jump, never had a shot, and wasn't really asked ... they tossed this one, and rightfully so. 

outta Tiznow, didn't even money in his first outing (5f MSW at Churchill) ... now being pointed to the Fountain of Youth (Gulfstream) on 2/29. 

has been working recently, with very middling efforts ... 5 weeks 'til his next possible outing. 

 
ya know, Cowboy ... it was my spurning of Tacitus in the Belmont that started me on a very long drought last summer - think i woulda learned my lesson, buuuuut nooooooo  :unsure:

i know wik luvs him some Tapit pups, as well - we got a pattern here.
noticed Tapit just turned 19. Ho much longer is he going to keep pumping out 3 year olds?

 
Can't use the emoji anywhere here, dude. Too many discussions in the PSF about it.

:lol: K?
... aaaaaaand that was my first thought when it was overridden by the hideous "fool on the hill" schwag SMILEY! emoji. 

thanks for the report from the cesspool .... what a ####in' ####show   :kicksrock:

 
ya know ... going back over the Iroquois - nice job by Romans using that route as a rating lesson for Dennis' ... fractions were not exactly blistering, but sub 24/48 on the top  ... he got some tepid pace to hang off'a - and did so out in the 3-4 path ... in short, good edumication for this fella ... though i'd love to see him try to steal the Roses on the front, if he gets that far ... best lookin' chance for a hot early pace thus far - we love, and neeeed, that come first Saturday in May. 

if he's the best early speed, #### it ... let him loose!  on that note, got a feeling they were gonna gangbust out at the Juvey ... slapped in the one hole, they were lookin' to gun him, ergo, his hiccup.  his head outran his hooves - #### happens  :shrug:

F.o.Y. win would get him in, though they will prolly run back in Fla. Derby for the seasoning .... how they let him navigate in the F.o.Y. is gonna tell an awful lot about his potential Derby schtick. 

 
gonna try and catch up to the preps already run ... we're still in the 10-4-2-1 dole out stages - still roughly a month away from the "win and you're in"  50-20-10-5 affairs (starting with the Risen Star on 2/15 ... hoping to see Enforceable out again for that one, lest Casse ices him 'til La. Derby, where just bagging  show dough will secure him a Churchill gate).

anyways ... first up:

2019 Iroquois - Dennis' Moment

going back 4 months for this one, a mid-September kickoff to the Derby Trail, proper ... 

the Dale Romans trained winner was 9/5 ml fave, banged down to 2/5 come the spring latch - largely due to his previous outing to this one, a 19 length romp in a 7f MSW at the vaunted Ellis Park (ok, i kid on that), but HOLY ####! 

that's a cat that was firing at 100% - look at those fractions! and how easily he motored ... eased up just a smidge at the end, denied the track record. 

serious horse flesh, and he backed it up well enuff in the initial prep ... consequently, after MAXFIELD scratched from the BC Juvey, our boy here was deemed favorite ... then came THIS - on his knees from jump, never had a shot, and wasn't really asked ... they tossed this one, and rightfully so. 

outta Tiznow, didn't even money in his first outing (5f MSW at Churchill) ... now being pointed to the Fountain of Youth (Gulfstream) on 2/29. 

has been working recently, with very middling efforts ... 5 weeks 'til his next possible outing. 
looks like he could use some schooling/growing. they had to stay awful busy on him in easy wins. dont like traffic, lunging breaks, hard getting him to change (but when he do...). could all be squared away in the 2-to-3 layoff. will be interesting to see, but it dont look like the future price will ever be good enough for a stab there

 
looks like he could use some schooling/growing. they had to stay awful busy on him in easy wins. dont like traffic, lunging breaks, hard getting him to change (but when he do...). could all be squared away in the 2-to-3 layoff. will be interesting to see, but it dont look like the future price will ever be good enough for a stab there
yeah, he was green in them gills coming home in the Iroquois - luggin' and tuggin' ... he's a baby.  a big ####in' beautiful and fast baby. 

how refined were you at two years old?  huh?

hell, he's only three because the calender said January ... he's a ####in' baby ...

i like him.  my drinkin' buddy from St. Thomas likes him.  you'll grow to like him. 

gimme over 15-1 in Churchill. 

... whaddya think of Tapit's boy, Enforcer?

 
yeah, he was green in them gills coming home in the Iroquois - luggin' and tuggin' ... he's a baby.  a big ####in' beautiful and fast baby. 

how refined were you at two years old?  huh?

hell, he's only three because the calender said January ... he's a ####in' baby ...

i like him.  my drinkin' buddy from St. Thomas likes him.  you'll grow to like him. 

gimme over 15-1 in Churchill. 

... whaddya think of Tapit's boy, Enforcer?
- i'm the equivalent of those horses winning futuritys @ fair tracks in April, man. i was on TV @ 2yo - search the word "Sputnik" to read the story. all downhill from there - bucked shins, was addicted to DMSO by kindygarten....

- Dennis has a sprinter's reach but a classic stride - should be innerestin

- and what's not to like about drinkin buddies from VI?!

- i'm old fashioned. Jack Straus told me the real fig on golf tournament & early Derby favorites is 40-1, so i find it hard to shop under that number

- well, i loooove me some middlemovers, so Enforcer's my kind of boy.

 
Sunday Silence was my all time favorite at this, but never seen anything like Arazi’s middle move before or since 
Bates Motel, for a half-dozen races after he grew into his massive (almost 18-hand) frame, had the biggest middlemove i ever saw. IIRC, Stevie Davidowitz got home-turn real-time quarter from him in the 21s.

 
Ron Flatter @ronflatter

Lecomte winner Enforceable was cut from 125-1 to 30-1 at @WilliamHillNV to win the @KentuckyDerby

.

 
prep number two ...

2019 American Pharoah - Eight Rings

didn't take long for Baffert to show up, eh?  :coffee:

what can one add here? this cat gets out in a hurry, was never pressured ... laid down some "we're hustling a bit more than a paid workout would suggest" splits, and was never in doubt. never. in. doubt.  called in by close to five lengths.  we got a GI route dazzler under our belts here. 

won his maiden back in early August, bangin' a 5f bullet at Del Mar ... he would go out again in the Surf n' Turf 4 weeks later, as the favorite for the Del Mar Futurity, where THIS  happened  :o

rank start, lugged over, took down Storm the Court with him ... one of the premier baby races of the season, and we almost had a catastrophic scenario where two horses would be put down ... really in the crosshairs of all the attention being paid to SoCal racing fatalaties, this may have been a cataclysmic game changer out there if both perished.  

but they didn't ... so, crisis averted.  wow!  we good. 

the two would hook up again at the BC Juvey, and we already know Storm the Court took that one down at 45-1.  Eight Rings attended 'til about top of the stretch ... then faded fast. 

outta Empire Maker, who passed a couple days ago at a rather robust 20 ... fare thee well, Stud!

as far as the future, looks like Baffert will be taking his usual Oaklawn route with this one, as next possibility on his docket is listed as the Rebel ... that doesn't go off 'til 3/14, which would mean Eight Rings will have been on ice for a solid 4+ months.

was a reasonable 24-1 at close of first futures, currently sits at 27-1 with the book.

wtf happened in that Juvey?

(Storm the Court is a resilient lil' bastid - carry on).

 
prep number three ... 

2019 Champagne Stakes/Tiz the Law

we head to my home track, beautiful Belmont Park, for an early October G1 baby special - been a loooong time since this race churned a Derby winner - we gotta reach waaay back to it's golden age (mid '70s) ... but check out this line of winners from '74-'78: Foolish Pleasure, Seattle Slew, Alydar, Spectacular Bid  :eek:

current NY Racing is dreadful. 

anyways, on to the gig at hand ...

not often thru the first few preps that we see such highly regarded Derby timber, but Tiz the Law marks the third in a row here (Dennis' Moment, Eight Rings).

he bobs out from jump ... rank and lugging ... gets put in traffic - fractions are the fastest we've seen thus far (sub 23, sub 47) - by the time he settles, he's 3 wide ... he's then driven back inside by Franco, gets pinched in the stretch, tries the 2 path (on wrong lead) gets shuffled out ... makes his charge, luggin' and chuggin' ... lookin' green as ####in' Gumby. 

but make no mistake, once he was steady, he exploded.  so he's got that going for him - track was off, think Franco rode a facacta route here  ... horse was asked to overcome some tactical gaffes, and he answered bigly - but the cat is raw ... promising, but needs work. 

won his maiden (6f) up at the Spa in August ... the Champagne was his second careeer start ..  now, instead of staying put for the Remsen, they opted for the Jockey Gold Cup at Churchill (which we'll see later on) - gotta think they chose the longer route for seasoning.  next up is the G3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream (2/1). recent works have been crisp. 

trained by Tagg, outta Constitution (Tapit)/Tizliz (Tiznow) ... finished first future go 'round at 11-1.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
prep number three ... 

2019 Champagne Stakes/Tiz the Law

we head to my home track, beautiful Belmont Park, for an early October G1 baby special - been a loooong time since this race churned a Derby winner - we gotta reach waaay back to it's golden age (mid '70s) ... but check out this line of winners from '74-'78: Foolish Pleasure, Seattle Slew, Alydar, Spectacular Bid  :eek:

current NY Racing is dreadful. 

anyways, on to the gig at hand ...

not often thru the first few preps that we see such highly regarded Derby timber, but Tiz the Law marks the third in a row here (Dennis' Moment, Eight Rings).

he bobs out from jump ... rank and lugging ... gets put in traffic - fractions are the fastest we've seen thus far (sub 23, sub 47) - by the time he settles, he's 3 wide ... he's then driven back inside by Franco, gets pinched in the stretch, tries the 2 path (on wrong lead) gets shuffled out ... makes his charge, luggin' and chuggin' ... lookin' green as ####in' Gumby. 

but make no mistake, once he was steady, he exploded.  so he's got that going for him - track was off, think Franco rode a facacta route here  ... horse was asked to overcome some tactical gaffes, and he answered bigly - but the cat is raw ... promising, but needs work. 

won his maiden (6f) up at the Spa in August ... the Champagne was his second careeer start ..  now, instead of staying put for the Remsen, they opted for the Jockey Gold Cup at Churchill (which we'll see later on) - gotta think they chose the longer route for seasoning.  next up is the G3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream (2/1). recent works have been crisp. 

trained by Tagg, outta Constitution (Tapit)/Tizliz (Tiznow) ... finished first future go 'round at 11-1.
my kind of aniscule.

with racehorses, as with tall blondes, there's a fine line between smart & crazy. this fella got himself into every kind of trouble you can have, the sort which would put a 5yo gelding away. more importantly, he got hisself OUT of every kind of trouble. the indicator is that, just as all the work was done, the eighth-pole noisewave of the crowd hit him and he almost flipped like a dolphin. good handling by the jock, but TtL turned "what's THAT?!" into "got it" a half-dozen times in 8 furlongs and you gotta like that. a little maturity, and with the TizTap blood....

The Champagne will always be my favorite 2yo race because Belmont fall will always be my favorite meet. of course, i remember it in a kinda pre-Breeders Cup way.

 
my kind of aniscule.

with racehorses, as with tall blondes, there's a fine line between smart & crazy. this fella got himself into every kind of trouble you can have, the sort which would put a 5yo gelding away. more importantly, he got hisself OUT of every kind of trouble. the indicator is that, just as all the work was done, the eighth-pole noisewave of the crowd hit him and he almost flipped like a dolphin. good handling by the jock, but TtL turned "what's THAT?!" into "got it" a half-dozen times in 8 furlongs and you gotta like that. a little maturity, and with the TizTap blood....

The Champagne will always be my favorite 2yo race because Belmont fall will always be my favorite meet. of course, i remember it in a kinda pre-Breeders Cup way.
didja attend any of the races i alluded to?  was still Jamaica Station stop, then hop on the RR, no?

TtL and Storm the Court need to hit the Churchill gate ... like what i've seen thus far from all the horses i've spotlighted, but those two seem to have that extra "oooomph" in their personalities.

btw, i can't imagine Franco keeping the mount ... as rank as TtL was prone to be, the jock did him no favors.  tough job handling a wackadoodle like TtL, but there were some tactical blunders, as well ... he didn't need to be in that much trouble. 

 
prep number three ... 

2019 Champagne Stakes/Tiz the Law

we head to my home track, beautiful Belmont Park, for an early October G1 baby special - been a loooong time since this race churned a Derby winner - we gotta reach waaay back to it's golden age (mid '70s) ... but check out this line of winners from '74-'78: Foolish Pleasure, Seattle Slew, Alydar, Spectacular Bid  :eek:

current NY Racing is dreadful. 

anyways, on to the gig at hand ...

not often thru the first few preps that we see such highly regarded Derby timber, but Tiz the Law marks the third in a row here (Dennis' Moment, Eight Rings).

he bobs out from jump ... rank and lugging ... gets put in traffic - fractions are the fastest we've seen thus far (sub 23, sub 47) - by the time he settles, he's 3 wide ... he's then driven back inside by Franco, gets pinched in the stretch, tries the 2 path (on wrong lead) gets shuffled out ... makes his charge, luggin' and chuggin' ... lookin' green as ####in' Gumby. 

but make no mistake, once he was steady, he exploded.  so he's got that going for him - track was off, think Franco rode a facacta route here  ... horse was asked to overcome some tactical gaffes, and he answered bigly - but the cat is raw ... promising, but needs work. 

won his maiden (6f) up at the Spa in August ... the Champagne was his second careeer start ..  now, instead of staying put for the Remsen, they opted for the Jockey Gold Cup at Churchill (which we'll see later on) - gotta think they chose the longer route for seasoning.  next up is the G3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream (2/1). recent works have been crisp. 

trained by Tagg, outta Constitution (Tapit)/Tizliz (Tiznow) ... finished first future go 'round at 11-1.
Awfully close to a foul against Big City Bob when he made his move at the top of the stretch.  He checked up to avoid Tiz the Law, lost his lane and his speed, and still got up to land in the money.   

 
gonna run thru the final 5 preps of 2019 here ... playing ketchup, as we have the Smarty Jones ready to go tomorrow. 

in order:

Claiborne Breeders Futurity/MAXFIELD

go to my initial post up in this thread ... i hit a very fine personal exacta there: drunk out my ###, and wowed by this BEAST - performance speaks for itself.   injury shelved him for the Juvey, hasn't been out since, but has recently resumed training.  dunno if he'll be ready in time for KD - my money is on him being the new shooter at Pimlico that takes down the Derby winner.  stay tuned. 

Breeders Cup Juvey/Storm the Court

it was supposed to be a moment for Dennis' Moment ... and he lasted less than that, stumbling out the gate and given a merry go round stroll over the track.  dunzo.  oh, and here we have Eight Rings, who was much considered the top contender, fading fast at the top of the stretch ... soooo - no MAX, Dennis on his knees, Eight Rings folding like the Patriots - opens the door for a ding-ding longshot battle to the wire, with otb darling Storm the Court housing Anneau d'Or.  he's been Cali-centric, having split his 4 starts between Del Mar and Santa Anita.  cat's got a ton of heart, and has been keeping himself in classy company ... a longshot special going forward - could be this year's Lookin' at Lee. 

trained by Eurton, outta Court Vision (Tejano Run sib, My Tejana Storm, on bottom) was more suited to be a cabbage eater ... but all starts have been dirt thus far.  41-1 at close of first futures, can be had for 45-1 at the book.  next start looks to be the Robert Lewis on 2/1, he's been working very well.

Kentucky Jockey Gold Cup Stakes/Silver Prospector

notable here for another glimpse at the glorious hijinks of Tiz the Law ... looks like a replay of the Champagne, 'cept this time there was no path home .... he's rank and lugging on the wrong lead- pinched in traffic, etc - came in as heavy fave based off the score in NY, but this was a nightmare. 

the winner began on turf, had his first 3 career starts on the cabbage ... bagged a respectable 3rd in his first dirt outing at Churchill (in the Street Sense), then wheeled back a month later for this score (also Churchill).  can't discount a horse that appears to be clicking on the KD surface ... with all the variables and peripherals to deal with, that's a definite feather in any entries cap ... he gotta get there, though, and he takes his next step tomorrow in the Smarty.  

trained by Asmussen, with some nice lineage (foaled by sibs of War Front and Tapit). 

finished 41-1 on first futures, can be had for upwards of fitty at certain books. 

Remsen/Shotski

hooo, boy - what can we say about this stellar field?  the winner wired 'em in a snoozer, drilling a majestic :50 half split  :loco:

any pizzazz this clunkfest woulda had was sapped when Tiz opted for Churchill and the KJGC  ... well, outside of CLEON JONES ducking in from Shea to take a stroll around the Big A, that is. 

worst prep of the season, thy name is REMSEN. 

Los Al Futurity/Thousand Words

the final prep of 2019, a crowded 4 horse traffic jam (well, to be fair, multiple scratches due to track, and Baffert).

the two Baffert's hustle out with some nice splits ... Thousand Words pokes ahead in the stretch, but then gets mightily pressed by favorite Anneau d'Or (who we saw give Storm the Court all he could handle in the Juvey) ... looked like Anneau had the path home down the middle, but the winner dug deep and gutted one out ... fun race to watch, great finish.  loved the heart in the slop outta Thousand Words ... great resumé filler going forward. 

the Baffert trained TW is outta Pioneer of the Nile (Empire Maker), and is unbeaten in 2 career starts ... finished first futures at 34-1, can be had for slightly higher at select books.

next up is the Robert Lewis on 2/1 ... a date with Storm the Court awaits. 

would be remiss not to mention the horse nosed out by both ... Anneau d'Or has two career starts, nudged at the wire in thrilling finishes both times ... that Juvey, his first career start, was damn impressive for a maiden outing ... can't knock the performance at Los Al, given only second career start and the slop.   he may be a cat who catches a severe case of "seconditis", but second place cashes a tri Key ticket for me  :shrug:  way ahead of myself, i know ... but i dig this one's grit, and he's only gonna get better, imo. 

trained by Blaine Wright, outta Medaglia d'Oro, with a Tapit sib (Walk Close) on bottom. next up is the El Camino on 2/15 ... woulda loved to have seen him wheeled back for the Lewis, but ... wtf do i know. 

finished first futures at 31-1, similar offerings at any number of books atm.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
2020 Smarty Jones (PPs wouldn't load, so, go to Mark Casse, find today's date, and Lynn's Map ... click "Ultimate PPs", and ... WALA!)

... or "The Asmussen Special" - they're going a mile down in Hot Springs, with 4 of the 9 trained by Stevie boy - one could play the SA tri/super and feel ok with the prospects.  

speaking of prospects, we get the return of KJGC winner Silver Prospector here - tepid 5/2 ml fave ... gotta love him in this spot - nice draw, with speed to his inside, which will give him perfect maneuverability off the rail - i believe they rate him off the front pack just a smidge ... he can sit back and save ground, giving Santana energy when called for his run. 

his KJGC win was flattered by Enforceable taking down the LeComte, not to mention dusting NY hotshot Tiz the Law back at Churchill ... that KJGC could turn out to be one of the key early preps as we move forward. 

speaking of the LeComte and Enforceable, that path was eased when Casse pulled his other entrant, Lynn's Map, due to an adverse draw - but he shows up today from the 8 hole, at a very reasonable 6/1 ml.   took his last outing from a very reserved bunch on a sloppy Fairgrounds track.  

the 6 horse, Gold Street, stretches out for the first time today ... on a 2 race winning streak over sloppy conditions, and has speed to factor in this one - Garcia jumps in the irons as Santana stays on Silver Prospector.  the one outta Asmussen's four who figures to be on the early engine.  

the 7 horse, Shoplifted, is another Asmussen, and he'll be coming late ... has speed cred in routes, owning the best best distance figure of this lot ...won his last in the Sringboard ... has been working sharp, and seems very fit for this spot - Asmussen musical chairs again in the saddle, as Gaffalione jumps in for Santana.   3/1 ml for the sticky fingered cat. 

the 9 horse, Three Technique, is coming in hot, has been working well ... but first stretch out on the ship (though Englehart is sharp there), and ran his lowest figure last out, albeit a win at the Big A.

- if i had to chuck a long play in for exotic chips n' giggles i'd prolly go to the 3 horse Shared Sense - he's been knockin' around with this class enuff, though he flopped miserably last out as prohib fave. outta Street Sense, so there ya go on that count. 

on top, then 8/7/6/3/9 - put 'em in a ####in' blender and pray. 

see ya at the window ... or the bar - or the pawn shop -

:deadhorse:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
sloppy track, roughly 45 mins to post ... gotta take a longer look at the 6, Gold Street ... took his last two in similar conditions, stretching 2 more furlongs today, though. 

the 9 horse, Three Technique, catching my eye, as well. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Top