Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
KarmaPolice

Draftkings Week 6

Recommended Posts

On to the next week.  Boosted the bankroll a tiny bit, so I will be chatting in here this week for a cash LU again.  (can't stay away for too long...)

All I looked at so far was TE, and it's the usual suspects.  A couple quick thoughts after I scanned:

1.  only 10 games, so less to look at

2.  Welcome the Hooper chalk week as he goes against AZ

3.  I think an interesting gpp D would be KC against Houst on the cheap as everybody will be on the Watson vs. Mahomes game.  

4.  I don't think they priced up the RBs enough, and with CMC not on the slate and Cook going against the great Philly rush D, I'm not sure we have to pay up for RBs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also, especially @Zyphros who listens to pods, the RG Gillcast pod was pretty funny this week as they all lost their cash games and bagged on each other for playing Ertz, James White, and Gallman in their LUs.   It's amusing when they lose and have to talk about it.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

On to the next week.  Boosted the bankroll a tiny bit, so I will be chatting in here this week for a cash LU again.  (can't stay away for too long...)

All I looked at so far was TE, and it's the usual suspects.  A couple quick thoughts after I scanned:

1.  only 10 games, so less to look at

2.  Welcome the Hooper chalk week as he goes against AZ

3.  I think an interesting gpp D would be KC against Houst on the cheap as everybody will be on the Watson vs. Mahomes game.  

4.  I don't think they priced up the RBs enough, and with CMC not on the slate and Cook going against the great Philly rush D, I'm not sure we have to pay up for RBs. 

#3 looks like a game where I may use Hyde to be contrarian against the crowd in GPPs that will be all over the other skill position players in this game. Still want a piece of that game, so Hyde with Kelce or Hill may be something I run. Kelce is 1600 higher than the next TE, so gotta go cheap somewhere to fit him in. Mahomes with Kelce or Hill seems almost too expensive to build around. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jerseys finest said:

#3 looks like a game where I may use Hyde to be contrarian against the crowd in GPPs that will be all over the other skill position players in this game. Still want a piece of that game, so Hyde with Kelce or Hill may be something I run. Kelce is 1600 higher than the next TE, so gotta go cheap somewhere to fit him in. Mahomes with Kelce or Hill seems almost too expensive to build around. 

This is going to be the Atl/Houst game of this week that everybody flocks to.  I am going to be torn on this all week.  Like you said, Mahomes-Kelce seems like they are too hard to fit in and it's not like Kelce has been amazing FF-wise this year either.  Hard to pass over the group of guys like Kittle/Hooper that are 1500+ less.   Also a tad concerned about the drop in TDs the last couple weeks for Mahomes at his price too, and they are turning into a NE-type team that seems to spread the ball around a lot.  Don't know what to do with this one, but it's a 54 0/u, and the next closest are 48s with SF/LaR and Cinci/Balt, so it's probably not smart to have pieces of it in cash somehow.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see we miss out on TB/Car on the main slate.  I assume it's one of those nutty London games?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am sure this goes into the value ratings, etc. on the site, but I wanted to share since I was bored and checked it out just to see what it looked like.  One of the guys on the Gillcast mentioned that he does an opportunity cost chart by looking at carries + 1.5xreceptions for the opportunities.  (I assume because DK is ppr, that is why the multiple is used?).  Then divide the salary by that number to get cost/opportunity of the RBs.   I did the average (with a couple exceptions) of the last 3 weeks carries/touches and this week's salaries and came up with this for the main slate:  

214-215:  Fournette and Bell were by themselves with just about identical #s and pretty big difference in the next tier.  

242:  Next was Carson pretty much by himself.   If he was on the main slate, CMC would be right here, as are Ekeler and K.Johnson

260-270:  There was a group of Freeman, Henry, Lindsay, Mixon in this range.  

284:  Chubb by himself

300:  Right around here we have D.Johnson, Gordon (using last week's stats), Kamara

317:  Cook

334:  Ingram

364:  Zeke

 

I just thought this all was interesting to look at, especially since I thought Zeke was a bit overpriced and I didn't love the top tier.  Still thinking about cash games, but I think for gpps Fournette/Bell/Carson is an interesting core to build around, as I think the impulse is still to get one of the studs in there and I think Zeke or Kamara will be fairly decently owned.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First look at a cash lineup has me questioning everything.  Maybe it's cause I'm a day later than normal or I'm just feeling uncomfortable with this overall as I'm barely breaking even each week.  Usually losing cash, and somehow pulling off some tourney's.  Anyways, onto the cash lineup that is very questionable.

Minshew

Kamara, Ingram, DJ (If healthy, easy pivot will be to Edmunds and I'd feel a lot better about the rest of this)

Amari, Diggs, Preston Williams (yeah I know I'm excited too but he's probably more GPP play)

Sprinkle

Broncos

I was playing with RB for a while trying to see if the play was to pay up or pay down, this is the best I came up with on first look.  The other option I found seemed ok was subbing Hyde in there somewhere and upgrading QB and TE around that.  Alternative was Hyde for DJ, Hooper for Sprinkle and keep Minshew with $900 to play with.  I don't really like any QB's with that $900 upgrade.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bell seems like a good value this week in cash and gpp. Almost too good.

Also is the Jets D an option this week, even if Mosley is still out? Gase is a terrible HC, but that D is not bad. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Qb   Watson

Rb Kamara,. Mixon

Wr. Julio, Hopkins, Parker

Te Hooper

Flex Rudolf. About time he scores at least I'm hoping.

D.  Jags.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Man, the LUs posted are making me nervous that my process is off this week.  Mostly I am looking at all middle of the road salary players in cash.   After posting my RB thoughts I came up with:

Ryan - Fournette/Bell/Carson - Thielen/Gallup/P.Williams - Hooper - Tenn

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

Bell seems like a good value this week in cash and gpp. Almost too good.

Also is the Jets D an option this week, even if Mosley is still out? Gase is a terrible HC, but that D is not bad. 

I like Bell a lot better in cash. In cash, volume wins, but how much upside does anyone on Nyj have?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

@Elevencents who is your Will Fuller pick in week 6? Fuller again or someone new?

I’m def riding Fuller again against KC. Will have him and Watson paired in a few for sure.

Still looking at the weekend but I like Michel on Thursday with Burkhead banged up. Should hopefully get some targets and I would hope he gets in the end zone at least once. His ceiling isn’t super impressive but he should be a safe floor type for cash. 
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, cheese said:

I like Bell a lot better in cash. In cash, volume wins, but how much upside does anyone on Nyj have?

The Jets D looked like an interesting option for gpp, but it looks like Mosley probably still out. So I'm less inclined to go there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm new to this, but still kicking myself for last week when I managed to place 10th of 600 in a $3 Thu-Mon GPP despite a Dalton-Tate-Eifert stack. I plug any of about a dozen other teams in there and I win going away.

I like the idea of completely fading HOU-KC in GPPs. I think my pivot will be ATL-ARZ as the prices are a lot more reasonable and the odds of a 48-41 type game are every bit as good - both those defenses are just horrific.

Based on about 5 minutes of my time (and stealing the Jets D idea above) here's my first stab at it:

Ryan (or Murray - will probably do entries with both)

Bell, Fournette

Julio, Fitz, Boyd

Cook, Kittle

Jets

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After taking a couple weeks off of DFS ( work, family ) I entered four $1 THU - MON contests.  Two cash, Two SE  GPPs

Locked in Pats D on all four, and Darius Slayton on three

Ownership in my specific contests

  • Pats D    49.7% , 48.6% GPP,    46.1%, 60.9:shock: Cash
  • Slayton    9% GPP,            5.1%, 8% Cash

Using Lamar Jackson in all four lineups ( I'm a self-loathing Bengals fan ) and pairing him with Gus Edwards in GPP

Edited by Church of Iggy Pop

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure what I am going to do with the info, but looks like that cheap RB might be in play with both Gurley and D.Johnson looking iffy.  Both Brown and Edmonds are sub 5k.  

The problem is, I don't love a ton of stuff that I want to pay up for.  Hopkins and Kelce in theory should be great plays, but haven't really been smashing.  Julio seems to be losing target shares to Hooper and Sanu as they spread the ball around.  Cook in a bad matchup, etc.  I am going to have to think about this a bit.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fuller price went way up of course. Still have him in a couple.

Here are the players I’m mostly using:

QB: Ryan, Cousins, Lamar

RB: Ingram, Elliott, Edmonds, Carson

WR: Gallup, Thielen, McLaurin, Julio

TE: Hooper, Andrews

Def: Ravens, Dolphins 😄
 

ETA: Only cash plays for me

Edited by Elevencents

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stacks I'm using this week in some fashion.  Mostly GPP idea's with quick run backs.

Baker/Landry/OBJ/Lockett  *Thought about a pivot from this into Landry/Chubb instead of OBJ as well just haven't filled a lineup yet

Minshew/Chark/Westbrook/MThomas/Kamara *With Kamara possibly out I'll have to figure this out a little more

Watson/Hopkins/Pringle (might want to move to Hill and Keke here as well instead of Pringle)

Mahomes/Kelce/Robinson/Hopkins

Kyler/DJ/Fitz/Sanu/Hooper

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I find myself playing crowder and devante Parker this week, as well as Miami defense. Washington just changed coaches, doesn’t know who the qb will be, and wants to give Peterson 30 carries. It’s the dolphins best chance to win this year, and if that happens Parker will have a decent game. The targets are there. Crowder seems overlooked, but his game with darnold he had 13 rec. I think it’s reasonable to expect him to rack up a good handful of rec in this game. 

Edited by Snorkelson
For gpp. Case is made for crowder for cash

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Prob my favorite lineup for cash:

Minshew

Cook, Ingram, Flex: Carson

Hopkins, Dede, Preston Williams

Hooper

Falcons
 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Watson

LBell

Drake

Hopkins

Cooper

McLaurin

Crowder

Dissly

Eagles

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, LBH said:

Watson

LBell

Drake

Hopkins

Cooper

McLaurin

Crowder

Dissly

Eagles

Is this for cash?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Is this for cash?

It’s one of my millionaire maker entry’s 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Had Kamara and DJ in a lot of my cash lineups.  It made me a bit nervous with a lot of questionable things going on in the week so I subbed them out.  Lineup turned into this:

Deshaun

Cook, Ingram, Bell

Fitz, Pringle, Preston Williams

Hooper

Broncos

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Had Kamara and DJ in a lot of my cash lineups.  It made me a bit nervous with a lot of questionable things going on in the week so I subbed them out.  Lineup turned into this:

Deshaun

Cook, Ingram, Bell

Fitz, Pringle, Preston Williams

Hooper

Broncos

The thing I worry about this week is now it's looking like there might be 3 super cheap rbs b/c of injuries in Brown, Murray, and Edmonds.  That construction will be chalk (on of them at Rb) so people can get Hopkins, Juliio, Kupp in lineups.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

The thing I worry about this week is now it's looking like there might be 3 super cheap rbs b/c of injuries in Brown, Murray, and Edmonds.  That construction will be chalk (on of them at Rb) so people can get Hopkins, Juliio, Kupp in lineups.  

I don't see Brown being useful in cash.  Especially on DK.  That matchup is tough as can be and McVay already said he's going to get Henderson involved this week.  We will see how that actually shakes out.  Murray seems ok but risky cause that offense could sputter against a good defense.  Edmonds would be good if DJ doesn't play, but it looks like he will give it a go.  Good luck guessing that backfield split when DJ is still playing, although injured. 

Also I just love how Kupp is "included" now, it's crazy funny to me

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I don't see Brown being useful in cash.  Especially on DK.  That matchup is tough as can be and McVay already said he's going to get Henderson involved this week.  We will see how that actually shakes out.  Murray seems ok but risky cause that offense could sputter against a good defense.  Edmonds would be good if DJ doesn't play, but it looks like he will give it a go.  Good luck guessing that backfield split when DJ is still playing, although injured. 

Also I just love how Kupp is "included" now, it's crazy funny to me

Not sure what you mean by the bolded.  

I think so much is about touches for the $ - like the Gallman chalk week.  Agree Brown has the tougher matchup, and he might be the least favorite, but he is also only 4.3K on the team with the 3rd highest implied total.  L.Murray is only 3.7 and has a good OL/DL matchup this week if Kamara is out, and Edmonds is also in a good spot, but that might be a late decision.  

My overall point was that one reason I dread playing cash LUs is you have to think about the chalk construction a little and that I think your LU and sticking with Bell/Ingram/Cook is going against the grain a bit, especially with Cook in the bad matchup.  

Again, just talking through this stuff here.  I can't make up my mind what I want to do in cash yet.  What I have now is:

Ryan - Fournette/Bell/Edmonds - Kupp/Thielen/Gallup - Hooper - Jets.   

Not sure how much I like Fournette, Thielen, or Jets though.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

Not sure what you mean by the bolded.  

I think so much is about touches for the $ - like the Gallman chalk week.  Agree Brown has the tougher matchup, and he might be the least favorite, but he is also only 4.3K on the team with the 3rd highest implied total.  L.Murray is only 3.7 and has a good OL/DL matchup this week if Kamara is out, and Edmonds is also in a good spot, but that might be a late decision.  

My overall point was that one reason I dread playing cash LUs is you have to think about the chalk construction a little and that I think your LU and sticking with Bell/Ingram/Cook is going against the grain a bit, especially with Cook in the bad matchup.  

Again, just talking through this stuff here.  I can't make up my mind what I want to do in cash yet.  What I have now is:

Ryan - Fournette/Bell/Edmonds - Kupp/Thielen/Gallup - Hooper - Jets.   

Not sure how much I like Fournette, Thielen, or Jets though.  

Does M.Brown really have a tougher matchup? The 49ers have played a soft schedule so far against 4 teams with losing records. No doubt they have looked good, but Gurley had a nice history against the 49ers and Rams will need to run to win. I think the only drawbacks with Brown will be his ownership (which should be sky high) and how much Henderson factors in. But at $4300, he has 100/2TD potential and that's way too good to pass up. I'm actually more worried about Henderson than the 49ers D. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

Does M.Brown really have a tougher matchup? The 49ers have played a soft schedule so far against 4 teams with losing records. No doubt they have looked good, but Gurley had a nice history against the 49ers and Rams will need to run to win. I think the only drawbacks with Brown will be his ownership (which should be sky high) and how much Henderson factors in. But at $4300, he has 100/2TD potential and that's way too good to pass up. I'm actually more worried about Henderson than the 49ers D. 

How likely do you think he hits that 100/2TD?  In cash you basically need 15 points for him to work out.  That's roughly 90 yds and a TD.  Not factoring in pass catching which I assume Henderson does more of?  I'm not so sure about that floor.  It could be there for sure, like you mentioned the matchups have been nice, but the floor seems rather low for cash games, even at his price point.  Seems like an ideal GPP play, but I bet his ownership will be high.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

How likely do you think he hits that 100/2TD?  In cash you basically need 15 points for him to work out.  That's roughly 90 yds and a TD.  Not factoring in pass catching which I assume Henderson does more of?  I'm not so sure about that floor.  It could be there for sure, like you mentioned the matchups have been nice, but the floor seems rather low for cash games, even at his price point.  Seems like an ideal GPP play, but I bet his ownership will be high.  

I only play gpp. And yes his ownership will probably be 25%. I think Brown and maybe even Henderson will have a good game against the 49ers. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Decided against Brown for now.  I am trying this in cash:

Ryan - Fournette/Carson/Bell- Kupp/Gallup/Landry - Hooper - NYJ

 

Only 3 players going in the first wave of games which is weird, but I guess I have the option to do Brown/?  If I feel like it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/12/2019 at 1:13 PM, Elevencents said:

Prob my favorite lineup for cash:

Minshew

Cook, Ingram, Flex: Carson

Hopkins, Dede, Preston Williams

Hooper

Falcons
 

 

 

Ended up my worst lineup, lol. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My gpps are +$, but my cash LU is still 10pts behind the line with pretty chalky guys in there.  Hooper and Bell dont help me a ton- I really need Gallup to do something at 8% owned.  

Edited by KarmaPolice

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll take it - up about $6.   Just like I posted last week, I probably need to adjust my cash to gpp ratio since I really am not having a ton of luck with those.  

Cash LU ended up with 143.74.  It hit all the 2x/50-50 contests, but didn't cash on the 25cent contests or the $1 5man it was in.  $12.75 in, $20.80out for that LU.   The gpps ended up losing ground, so they were -$ on the week.  Best one was a Cousins/Diggs LU that had Carson and Jeffrey in it.   Was dragged down by other duds - Henry/Tenn combo, Gallup, and Ertz.  

Oh well - up is up.  $25 in, $30.80 out.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I also finished up a few bucks. 200+ pts on my cash lineups:/. Afternoon only could have really been decent but losing cooper held me back. 
On a side note I’m alive in my survivor pool, and it’s beginning to get down to the last 5-6 (out of ~25) with Dallas knocking a couple more out this week. 
 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Broke even this week. Had a couple LU’s flirting with 200 and a couple that #### the bed. Not a single one with Diggs which obviously would have turned the tides. If I had him in my one LU with Cousins/Carson/McLaurin would have pulled $1000 for $3 😞

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

$5 50/50 cashed with 142.70,  used a $3 ticket I got from NHL last week and finished 6/118 with 174.84 for $16, 2/4 of my 25cent gpps cashed for a total of $2.

$8 in $27 out

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day slate broke dead even.  

Had Hunter Henry in the captain spot in my one entry for the Sunday night showdown.  Had I done a little better with the rest of the lineup, I could have had a nice payday.   It was my only entry.  $10 in  $40  out.

I like Kerryon in the Captain spot tonight.  Will do one entry with that and see what happens.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Gillcast guys all lost money again, so that was a funny listen.  

I have tried a couple cheap 25cent showdown contests, but haven't had any luck at all the last couple weeks.  Of course last night I was all on the Chargers, so that didn't end well.

Already looking at next week...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had a few Conner lineups in SNF that salvaged a bad main slate. For MNF, I really want the Lions to win. But for showdown lineups, the Green Bay D looks like a good value. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

The Gillcast guys all lost money again, so that was a funny listen.  

I have tried a couple cheap 25cent showdown contests, but haven't had any luck at all the last couple weeks.  Of course last night I was all on the Chargers, so that didn't end well.

Already looking at next week...

Looking at the leaderboards in the contents I entered, I got the impression that all of the top dfs players had a terrible week, like 90%+ loss rate. The key was Diggs. if you didn't have him, it was tough to cash in gpp. Overall I had 5 lineups that cashed out of 50+ lineups, and only 2 lineups with Diggs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, TwinTurbo said:

Looking at the leaderboards in the contents I entered, I got the impression that all of the top dfs players had a terrible week, like 90%+ loss rate. The key was Diggs. if you didn't have him, it was tough to cash in gpp. Overall I had 5 lineups that cashed out of 50+ lineups, and only 2 lineups with Diggs. 

I think 2 of them played Brown and none of them had Hooper  I think Boyd was a sore spot for them too if I remember right.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

I think 2 of them played Brown and none of them had Hooper  I think Boyd was a sore spot for them too if I remember right.  

Brown wasn't the killer. It was not having Diggs. He was 8-9% ownership in the contests I played including the DK MM which was higher than I was expecting. 

Hooper was close to 30% ownership in gpp and 60% in cash. It's surprising that none of them had Hooper. I don't listen to their podcast, but I might start listening just as a contrarian indicator lol. 

Edited by TwinTurbo
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

I think 2 of them played Brown and none of them had Hooper  I think Boyd was a sore spot for them too if I remember right.  

I'm listening to their podcast now. It's actually pretty funny. Future Sean McVay lol. The one guy is "down a couple Miata's". Hilarious. 

Edited by TwinTurbo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

Brown wasn't the killer. It was not having Diggs. He was 8-9% ownership in the contests I played including the DK MM which was higher than I was expecting. 

Hooper was close to 30% ownership in gpp and 60% in cash. It's surprising that none of them had Hooper. I don't listen to their podcast, but I might start listening just as a contrarian indicator lol. 

I should have been clear- they specifically talk about their cash teams and cash construction.  They talk a tiny bit about gpp, but 98% of the podcast I'd their cash lineups.  

Edited by KarmaPolice

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

I'm listening to their podcast now. It's actually pretty funny. Future Sean McVay lol. The one guy is "down a couple Miata's". Hilarious. 

Yeah, Davis was saying the week before he was down about 6 months rent.  I am guessing these dudes aren't rolling out the whopping $30 a week that I am. 

Not that I am wishing people to lose, but its refreshing that they have to come on and talk about their losing weeks.  There are a couple I listen to that mention briefly they had a down week, but they dont go into it and dissect the lineup like they do.  

One of the funniest ones was a couple weeks ago the 2 of them were bagging on the 3rd for starting a wr in flex in cash.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.