I started Joel Stein's new book,
In Defense of Elitism, last night. (Great read so far; highly recommended.) It let me to do a YouTube search for Miami, Texas. And that led me to this video:
Roberts County: A Year in the Most Pro-Trump Town.
Over 95% of the votes in Roberts County went to Trump. The video does a decent job of profiling a few of the people there, giving a sense of why they support Trump. It caused me to realize that, as much as the present-day me thinks there is no legitimate reason to support Trump, a hypothetical me who group up in that town would probably be a Trump supporter. The base rate is 95%. If I give myself some benefit of the doubt, maybe I'd be less than 95% likely to be a Trump supporter if I spent my life there. But surely I'd be at least 85% likely. That strikes me as kind of weird, but also kind of inescapable.
I've wondered before, if I'd grown up in the antebellum South, how likely would I have been to become an abolitionist? I don't know the answer, but it's surely much lower than I'd
like to think.
In any case, I recommend watching the video and trying to imagine what your thought process would be like if that's where you grew up. Note that this county is not full of dumb hicks. It is
extremely rural (the city of Miami has more square miles than it does residents). But the populace is better educated than the national average and wealthier than the national average. And the people (especially as described in the book, but you get a sense of it from the video as well) are extremely friendly, even to Jewish northeasterners descending upon their town to write mockingly of them.
timschochet and Ramblin' Wreck were arguing a few days ago in another thread about whether people can be fully aware of their own motivations for their political positions. I strongly side with tim. The motivations that we are consciously aware of are often post-hoc rationalizations that obscure the subconscious thoughts actually responsible for our positions. I don't want to get too far into the psychological research on this topic, but some of the split-brain experiments quite humorously (and convincingly) make this point. In any case, I believe that a lot of our subconscious reasons for holding various beliefs are social. We want to be trusted; we want to be respected; we don't want to be perceived as immoral. In a town where any Clinton supporter is immediately morally suspect, a person would have strong subconscious reasons for supporting Trump. Any person would -- including me and including you.
So while we're judging people from Miami, Texas or similar areas for supporting Trump, we should keep in mind that we'd probably be 85% likely to support Trump if we were from there as well. There but for the grace of God go all of us.