Re-thinking assumptions from pre-season about 1/3 of the way through (1 Viewer)

I'm 4-1 in one league where I drafted well (LOOK AT ME) and this is often where I get into trouble.  The times that I have actually won championships seem to be times that I came back from a slow start and really had to scratch and claw on the wire and figure out what was going to happen to get an edge.  I fear getting complacent, though I have some potential issues.  Here are the situations and players I wonder about (mostly mine, though not all).  Please add any team/player/depth chart situations that you wonder about or think should be re-thought going forward or especially to stress test your priors with new information:

Kamara - Injury notwithstanding, he is getting somewhat lower usage.  I was kind of expecting this and I took him because he is so damn efficient, I ultimately trust Payton's playcalling (even though I know he does annoying things at times), and his playoff schedule is fairly good.  What do we expect going forward?

Lamar Jackson - Came out like gangbusters, kind of as expected.  Seems like teams are getting the book on him, though he still is pretty good for garbage time and I think he is leaving a bit on the table with his passing if he can just tighten up a few things.  Trust him going forward or not?

Cowboys offense - I anticipated a pretty big jump from Kellen Moore coming in based on all the reporting about him.  Last week, the offense was a bit flat.  Will teams catch up here or is this offense still legit top 10?

Juju - Is he still a WR1?  Too unknown with the Rudolph injury so just need to wait and see?

Will have more later.

Long Ball Larry said:

Kamara - Injury notwithstanding, he is getting somewhat lower usage.  I was kind of expecting this and I took him because he is so damn efficient, I ultimately trust Payton's playcalling (even though I know he does annoying things at times), and his playoff schedule is fairly good.  What do we expect going forward?

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I think there is a big Brees factor here. The team is winning and largely because Bridgewater is playing mostly mistake free football and basically game managing. 

One I'll add is that I think David Johnson is not the stud RB we thought he was. Great athlete and receiver, but I think he lacks running instincts that other top RBs have.

Arians seemed to set him up for perfect success. Kingsbury's system and the offensive line doesn't help DJ in a wide open passing attack, but at some point you have to question how good of a pure RB Johnson in. It may sound blasphemous, but I think Chase Edmonds may not be too far behind him in overall skill set.

Long Ball Larry said:

Juju - Is he still a WR1?  Too unknown with the Rudolph injury so just need to wait and see?

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For me...no.

RB1/WR1 status to me has just as much to do with what you could receive in trade  vs. production.  I suspect most wouldn’t be too keen to acquire him.

Other Situations to Monitor

LAR Running Game - Gurley hasn’t even made it to Columbus Day and ‘leg’ issues are rearing their head.

NYG overall - Every year, there is a team that even thru the first part of the season blows.  But those last 6-7 games, it starts to put it together (think CLE in 2018, SF 2017).  My bet for 2019 is NYG...also for those that start looking at FF playoff schedules?  Week 15 = MIA, Week 16 = @WAS.

Ronald Jones - right now, only backfield that looks remotely ‘in play for regime change’ is TB.  Jones has flashed...can he be this years Aaron Jones (2018 version).

I'm with Tanner9919 on one thing, actually. Monitor Jakobi Meyers's and Josh Gordon's snap counts over the next few weeks. Who knows? Maybe Jakobi takes the job and you can get him off of the wire a week early or so. 

Also, Darrel Williams might get some run, but he's really not that good in the KC backfield. Expect Damien WIlliams to have a moderately short leash, but to be cut some slack nonetheless.

Also, to directly answer one of LBL's questions, I don't expect Dallas to be world-beaters like their first few, but they looked explosive their first few and ran into a tough Saints team. Green Bay aren't slouches and they almost came from way back. Expect Smith and Gallup back and healthy, and you've got a good recipe. I've also drank the Kellen Moore Kool-Aid and remember him at Boise State. They say Minshew lacks arm strength. Whither Moore, who could barely throw a twenty yard out, but still became a pro because of his head. 

Long Ball Larry said:

I'm 4-1 in one league where I drafted well (LOOK AT ME) and this is often where I get into trouble.  The times that I have actually won championships seem to be times that I came back from a slow start and really had to scratch and claw on the wire and figure out what was going to happen to get an edge.  I fear getting complacent, though I have some potential issues.  Here are the situations and players I wonder about (mostly mine, though not all).  Please add any team/player/depth chart situations that you wonder about or think should be re-thought going forward or especially to stress test your priors with new information:

Kamara - Injury notwithstanding, he is getting somewhat lower usage.  I was kind of expecting this and I took him because he is so damn efficient, I ultimately trust Payton's playcalling (even though I know he does annoying things at times), and his playoff schedule is fairly good.  What do we expect going forward?

Lamar Jackson - Came out like gangbusters, kind of as expected.  Seems like teams are getting the book on him, though he still is pretty good for garbage time and I think he is leaving a bit on the table with his passing if he can just tighten up a few things.  Trust him going forward or not?

Cowboys offense - I anticipated a pretty big jump from Kellen Moore coming in based on all the reporting about him.  Last week, the offense was a bit flat.  Will teams catch up here or is this offense still legit top 10?

Juju - Is he still a WR1?  Too unknown with the Rudolph injury so just need to wait and see?

Will have more later.

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Great thread concept.  I have had similar experiences to you, as far as standing pat too long with successful teams, but scapping aggressively when down.

On yours:

Don’t know about Kamara.

Lamar is still in his first year of starts, and will be up and down.  Play with confidence against softer defenses, stream vs tougher ones?  I have some confidence the Ravens coaching staff will come up with the next iteration of adjustments to return value here.  Would help if Brown would get healthy.

Cowboys should be fine.  New OC is having growing pains but they have the tools and the institutional experience to work through it and keep their weapons firing.

Juju...not a WR1 till he gets an NFL-worthy QB throwing to him.  Dynasty, yes, still a wr1, but not this year.  Bench if anyone else on the roster has a good matchup.

Here’s mine...defending dynasty champ, solid at RB/TE.  Hurt at WR by AB losing his mind and Tyreek’s injury.  Scrapping at QB though with Goff and Baker.  Brought in Dalton, and got Kyle Allen off waivers early.  Do I need to deal a solid asset elsewhere or can these guys stream adequately for a title defense?

Arodin said:

Here’s mine...defending dynasty champ, solid at RB/TE.  Hurt at WR by AB losing his mind and Tyreek’s injury.  Scrapping at QB though with Goff and Baker.  Brought in Dalton, and got Kyle Allen off waivers early.  Do I need to deal a solid asset elsewhere or can these guys stream adequately for a title defense?

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I personally don't think they can be streamed adequately. Goff cedes too much red zone work to the RBs and Dalton, Allen, and Baker can easily give you single digits any given. In fact, they all have within the past two weeks. 

Arodin said:

Juju...not a WR1 till he gets an NFL-worthy QB throwing to him.  Dynasty, yes, still a wr1, but not this year.  Bench if anyone else on the roster has a good matchup.

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i personally have serious doubts about this. i think he's a better than good receiver who looked like a great receiver while playing with AB. Great receivers can overcome decent QB plays and i feel like he's had that with these backups. it's not like the QB's are constantly throwing behind or over him. jury out on him for me, i still not sold on him as a legit WR1 even if Big Ben had not been hurt.

I thought Kupp's return would maybe hurt Woods a bit but not enough to relegate him out of the starting lineup nor did I think it would impact Cooks at all. Totally wrong. Kupp's return killed all receiver values in LA except Kupp's. Watching Goff's tendencies, I feel like Kupp's return is actually hurting Goff's value too. For whatever reason his accuracy to all other receivers looks to be very poor. His accuracy to Kupp is just god enough for Kupp to use his skills to secure the ball. in a way, it's like he's getting lazy and only focused on the short routes to Kupp. that's what I see the last three games.

Or Goff just isn't a good QB like I thought he was, which was kind of already proven in the SB and it's not about the receivers at all.

Speaking of Goff, his Combine buddy Wentz not exactly off to a hot start. granted his receiving corp keeps changing with injury and not having preseason reps probably hurt a little bit, but does he look like a first pick QB? Eagles certainly not clicking on the offense like they were expected to behind that great o-line. Potentially Goff/Wentz not so good early picks for these teams.

Sticking with the Eagles, and not ready to call this "right" yet, but took a chance on Jordan Howard as my RB3 and looks like that's trending in the right direction. This was both my hope that Howard is more like the Howard 2017 than Howard 2018 AND that Miles Sanders isn't a world beater. I read so much about how much Sanders moves laterally and that's proving to be 100% accurate. The dude would improve his ypc by one full yard if he stopped moving side to side and just hit the hole on his carries. Not bad ypc on his catches though.

On the other hand, Jordan Howard is quite possibly the slowest 1000 yard rusher in the NFL.

Gotta re-think the entire Browns offense at this point. They can still turn it around but right now, Kitchens is not doing what worked last year, and he's clearly not taking enough input from Monken either. 

JuJu might be a #1.  We don't know yet.  3 different QB's, no running game, no TE, and rotating #2 WR's.  He's not AB - but he still flashes WR1 at times.

Gurley - ouch.  That's why Pittsburgh did not pay Bell.

The Giants can definitely do some damage if they get healthy.

Guys we should have known..... Chark, Godwin, McCaffrey, R Wilson, NE Def, Sutton, Golliday and on the bad side Gurley, AB, KC with no Hunt and then no Hill.

Second half teams - Giants, Steelers, Detroit?

There are still a few more waiver pics out there.

ConnSKINS26 said:

Gotta re-think the entire Browns offense at this point. They can still turn it around but right now, Kitchens is not doing what worked last year, and he's clearly not taking enough input from Monken either. 

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I'm not surprised that they are meh so far.

Mayfield is better than what they had but that is not saying much.  Add hype and ego (OBJ) to that and sorry no bueno.  They should be playing for .500 and a chance at the playoffs not the SuperBowl.  Chubb is the best player on the team yet we only hear about the others.

ConnSKINS26 said:

Gotta re-think the entire Browns offense at this point. They can still turn it around but right now, Kitchens is not doing what worked last year, and he's clearly not taking enough input from Monken either. 

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Was my thought exactly reading this thread title and OP, which agree is a good one.

IND is another one I put with the Browns in terms of an offense we were totally wrong about in preseason. Where most thought CLE would be a machine, many (including myself) thought there was going to be an impending implosion with IND without Luck, even knowing Brissett was not terrible. But they have looked solid and playing tough.

MIN is an interesting one. This conference is fairly wide open still, but I think most (even those not sold on Cousins) thought they would look wat better on both sides of the ball, Cook notwithstanding. CHI in that division too - their offense with Trubisky is failing to find form, and not sure they will really turn it around completely. Likely will go far in the division still, but mostly on the backs of their D as I don't believe Trubisky suddenly has the light turned "on" this year.

And I think most would have thought the Bills were going to be competitive this year, especially given a strong D. But perhaps not with a 4-1 record?