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Dynasty: QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

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9 hours ago, Faust said:

Different ways to look at this.  If he stays in the 2020 draft, he could drop due to concerns.  Would he rather play for Cincy/Miami, or what if he could drop to a decent team that needs a good QB.  Would he rather play for cincy or, say, the Chargers who have players in place already.  If he plays for Cincy and has pressure to perform right away (after teams watch Watson, Murray and L. Jackson do so well so early) he may have a hard time living up to expectations (see: Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield) and be caught in a never ending rut... like Cincy.  

If he lands on a team that already has good parts in place (like LAC), or even on a team that has a good but aging QB (Saints, GB, Panthers, NE) he could sit and learn for a season or two (like Aaron Rodgers did).  

The big money is in the 2nd contract, not necessarily the rookie deal.  If he is drafted by the Bengals his rookie contract may be the only decent one he sees.  

The injury might could be the best thing to have happened to him, assuming he makes a full recovery.  The top of the 2021 draft is also going to be a crap shoot with the same familiar suspects.  If he lands on a good team in 2020 he can avoid the noid of those crappy teams altogether.  

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This will be interesting. I think how his recovery projects will be critical to how far he might fall in 2020. 

As other have said, might work out really well for him.  Would Lamar Jackson be this good if he had been drafted by the Jets? 

 

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Alabama junior QB Tua Tagovailoa (hip) is expected to be able to resume throwing in the spring according to ESPN's Laura Rutledge.

Tagovailoa (6'1/218), who underwent surgery on his right hip Monday in Houston, faces a lengthy recovery process as he works his way back from a dislocated hip suffered during Saturday's win at Mississippi State. Per Rutledge, the junior quarterback will "be on a partial weight bearing recovery program" for the next six weeks. Tagovailoa is expected to be able to resume athletic activity in three months, with the plan being to have him begin throwing in the spring. He will rehab in Tuscaloosa.

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Nov 19, 2019, 10:22 AM ET

 

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On 11/19/2019 at 8:57 AM, Summer Wheat said:

Not sure Tua would go top 5 in 2021.   Brittle QBs don`t last long in the NFL.

Agreed. Some unlucky franchise will get blown up for this 1st round selection.

4 injuries (or is it 4 surgeries?) before he's out of college... forget it.

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He's completely out of the first round in all of the mocks I've seen lately, but those are reactionary.  I'm sure he's at least a mid 2020 1st round pick once his health is confirmed going into the 2020 NFL season. 

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2 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

He's completely out of the first round in all of the mocks I've seen lately, but those are reactionary.  I'm sure he's at least a mid 2020 1st round pick once his health is confirmed going into the 2020 NFL season. 

Yep

If he's looking healthy, I don't think he falls past the Titans. 

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Speaking with Fran Duffy on the 'Journey to the Draft' podcast, Pro Football Network's Tony Pauline said that he still views Alabama junior QB Tua Tagovailoa (hip) as a first-round prospect should the quarterback declare upcoming.

Pauline told Duffy that he sees Tagovailoa going in the 20's on Day 1 "at the latest," but admitted that it's very difficult to gauge the junior's draft range at this early juncture, as we just don't have a concrete timetable for his recovery coming off of major hip surgery. And as Duffy pointed out, it's possible that Tua simply returns to Alabama for the 2020 season, in the hopes of putting forward a sort of show cause year on the health front. That's if the star gunslinger is able to play football at all next fall. There's a lot up in the air with this one right now.

SOURCE: Journey to the Draft

Nov 21, 2019, 6:44 PM ET

 

 

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On 11/18/2019 at 2:49 PM, IHEARTFF said:

I'm sure he has one. Anyone who makes approximately zero now but is expected to make tens of millions in the coming years should have something in place.

He may have only had a disability policy, and not a draft fall policy. 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/tua-tagovailoa-likely-to-enter-the-2020-nfl-draft/

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Great to see he is very likely to enter.  Dropping down the draft to where good teams are picking may work out VERY well for him.  Avoid the dumpster fire organizations that can and do destroy the career of QBs with terrible coaching and supporting cast play. 

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6 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

Great to see he is very likely to enter.  Dropping down the draft to where good teams are picking may work out VERY well for him.  Avoid the dumpster fire organizations that can and do destroy the career of QBs with terrible coaching and supporting cast play. 

Yes,  but per the article just above:

:A drop from, say, the No. 4 pick to the No. 11 pick equates to a loss of about $13 million in signing bonus money. A drop from the No. 4 pick to No. 19 is $23 million."

Edited by SoBeDad
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1 minute ago, SoBeDad said:

The article aove

 

Yes,  but per the article just above:

:A drop from, say, the No. 4 pick to the No. 11 pick equates to a loss of about $13 million in signing bonus money. A drop from the No. 4 pick to No. 19 is $23 million."

Sure, but it could also be the difference between being Blaine Gabbert and Joe Flacco in terms of career earnings. 

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8 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

Sure, but it could also be the difference between being Blaine Gabbert and Joe Flacco in terms of career earnings. 

Right. Entering the draft this year would be a bet that A he gets drafted by a decent to good team and B on his long term potential. He could still bust of course, but starting a career with the Patriots, colts, Titans, chargers, Panthers or even saints (is Teddy their guy going forward?) Sure looks better than Bengals or dolphins. 

I'd love to see the heads explode if the Patriots drafted him late 1st. 

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On 11/19/2019 at 10:46 AM, Jayrok said:

Different ways to look at this.  If he stays in the 2020 draft, he could drop due to concerns.  Would he rather play for Cincy/Miami, or what if he could drop to a decent team that needs a good QB.  Would he rather play for cincy or, say, the Chargers who have players in place already.  If he plays for Cincy and has pressure to perform right away (after teams watch Watson, Murray and L. Jackson do so well so early) he may have a hard time living up to expectations (see: Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield) and be caught in a never ending rut... like Cincy.  

If he lands on a team that already has good parts in place (like LAC), or even on a team that has a good but aging QB (Saints, GB, Panthers, NE) he could sit and learn for a season or two (like Aaron Rodgers did).  

The big money is in the 2nd contract, not necessarily the rookie deal.  If he is drafted by the Bengals his rookie contract may be the only decent one he sees.  

The injury might could be the best thing to have happened to him, assuming he makes a full recovery.  The top of the 2021 draft is also going to be a crap shoot with the same familiar suspects.  If he lands on a good team in 2020 he can avoid the noid of those crappy teams altogether.  

What are the chances he takes over for Brady?

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I spoke to one of the orthopedic surgeons at work and point blank asked him his opinion about Tua’s injury. He said, “career-ending”. He elaborated and said it is unlikely Tua is ever an elite athlete again after this injury. He said he can regain “normal” function, but probably not at an NFL level. And that if he does happen to get to that level again, his hip will not hold up very long to the rigors of the NFL. 

 

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On 11/23/2019 at 8:34 AM, SoBeDad said:

He may have only had a disability policy, and not a draft fall policy. 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/tua-tagovailoa-likely-to-enter-the-2020-nfl-draft/

If this article is accurate, Tua got shafted by the University of Alabama not taking out loss of value insurance for him.  If I were a blue chip high school player, this would be enough reason for me to choose a different program.  And if I had been Tua last summer, I would have demanded that they pay for the loss of value insurance or I would have sat out the year.  No NFL team would have held it against him.  Instead, he could have spent the year training with the best.

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7 hours ago, Don Hutson said:

If this article is accurate, Tua got shafted by the University of Alabama not taking out loss of value insurance for him.  If I were a blue chip high school player, this would be enough reason for me to choose a different program.  And if I had been Tua last summer, I would have demanded that they pay for the loss of value insurance or I would have sat out the year.  No NFL team would have held it against him.  Instead, he could have spent the year training with the best.

As I understand it, this is nothing unusual.  'Loss of value' is typically the player and family's responsibility, typically paid off with the signing bonus.  Alabama in particular would have to pay out a ton of $ to cover all of their potential draft picks.  What Alabama does pay is a pool that covers 'policies'...that covers a variety of potential unplanned player expenses.

Edited by gump

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2 hours ago, gump said:

As I understand it, this is nothing unusual.  'Loss of value' is typically the player and family's responsibility, typically paid off with the signing bonus.  Alabama in particular would have to pay out a ton of $ to cover all of their potential draft picks.  What Alabama does pay is a pool that covers 'policies'...that covers a variety of potential unplanned player expenses.

This was from the article that the article was citing:

Quote

 

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/tua-tagovailoa-injury-alabama-nfl-draft-fall-insurance-loss-of-value?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=darrenrovell

While Alabama doesn’t do loss of value for its players, other schools do. Sources say high-profile underclassmen at other schools have been presented and taken loss of value coverage with the school paying the premium. Schools that have done this include Clemson, LSU, Ohio State and Michigan.

 

 

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4 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

If his career isn't over he makes a great 2nd rd rookie pick in start 1 QB dynasty leagues.

I would be targeting him with my 2nd for sure

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I dont understand why everyone expects his career to be over... 

 

If I can win 1.13 in our toilet bowl I may target him there or trade down slightly into round 2 to target him. 

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In his latest mock draft, The Athletic's Dane Brugler slotted Alabama junior QB Tua Tagovailoa (hip) to the Miami Dolphins with the No. 4 overall pick.

"Until NFL medical staffs get involved and we have a better understanding of his rehab, it is simply impossible to predict where Tagovailoa will go in the draft," Brugler writes, later adding of the hypothetical slotting to the Dolphins, "With Josh Rosen (and maybe Ryan Fitzpatrick) under contract for Miami in 2020, Tagovailoa won’t be pushed to play before he is ready." Tua is still undecided as to whether he will declare. There are plusses and minuses both ways -- a declaration at this juncture would help him to avoid Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields in 2021, but would also come with a bit more presumed uncertainty on the health front, and (as Brugler alludes to) a fair amount of uncertainty in terms of draft range. Whereas a return to school would allow Tagovailoa to give a proof of concept with his hip, but would come with the added risk of reinjury which could seriously cause his stock to drop.

SOURCE: The Athletic

Dec 4, 2019, 2:16 PM ET

 

 

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Alabama junior QB Tua Tagovailoa (hip) has yet to make a decision regarding the 2020 NFL Draft.

"I still gotta talk with my family about all this, see what their input is. Now is not the time to be making emotional decisions," Tagovailoa said while speaking with ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit. The 6-foot-1, 218-pound junior explained that "[y]ou think of risk-reward on coming back. You think of risk-reward on leaving." Tagovailoa has until Jan. 20 to make a decision as to his draft status, so there's still a bit of time for him to weigh his options.

SOURCE: ESPN.com

Dec 4, 2019, 11:35 AM ET

 

 

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On 11/22/2019 at 8:48 PM, SoBeDad said:

 

Yes,  but per the article just above:

:A drop from, say, the No. 4 pick to the No. 11 pick equates to a loss of about $13 million in signing bonus money. A drop from the No. 4 pick to No. 19 is $23 million."

sure, but what will the $$ difference be, hypothetically, from a crap team to a good team?  4 years from now, he's probably looking at 40 million per year if he gets a good 2nd contract. Outside of Sam Bradford, QB's that get ruined by their initial draft team don't keep making bank.

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On the latest big board from Bleacher Report's Matt Milller, Alabama junior QB Tua Tagovailoa (hip) landed as his No. 10 overall prospect for 2020.

Tagovailoa (6'1/218) was laid low by a devastating hip injury sustained against Mississippi State in November, but we've yet to see his stock to take any kind of a true tumble. The Alabama signal-caller is no longer being floated around as a top-five pick, but we're still consistently seeing him mocked in the first round. Even the upper half of the first round. The view will no doubt shift if there's any sign of setback or if medical checks indicate that the injury could have a lasting long-term effect. For now, just too early to say. Tagovailoa is still in the process of deciding whether or not he will even declare for the draft. He has until Jan. 20 to make a final call on that front.

SOURCE: Bleacher Report

Dec 11, 2019, 11:50 AM E

 

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According to Alabama HC Nick Saban, junior QB Tua Tagovailoa (hip) was the only Alabama player to earn a top-15 grade from the NFL Advisory Committee.

Tagovailoa (6'1/218) earning that grade is no surprise. What is a surprise, though, is that he is alone. WR Jerry Jeudy, and even T Jedrick Wills, have found their way into the top-15 in many mock drafts, but don't appear to have earned that same praise from the committee. Of course, the committee often low balls and Tagovailoa probably got a bump for being a QB, but the point remains.

SOURCE: AL.com

Dec 30, 2019, 7:23 PM ET

 

 

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Alabama junior QB Tua Tagovailoa (hip) announced that he will make his official NFL Draft decision on January 6th.

Tagovailoa's drawn out NFL Draft decision has made for quite the spectacle. Before the season, fan bases across the NFL campaigned for their team to "Tank For Tua," but now it's not clear if he's even going to be in the 2020 draft class. It would be understandable for Tagovailoa (6'1/218) to be slightly deterred given LSU's Joe Burrow now has a better shot at the No.1 pick, but considering Clemson's Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State's Justin Fields will be in the 2021 class, it's not going to get any easier to be at the top. Make sure to be around when Tagovailoa makes his decision on Monday.

SOURCE: Tua Tagovailoa on Twitter

Jan 1, 2020, 8:22 PM ET

 

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9 hours ago, Faust said:

but considering Clemson's Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State's Justin Fields will be in the 2021 class

 

I don't think he has anything to gain by going back to school and probably a lot to lose.  His best option is to get drafted, sit a year, and come back strong in 2021.

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I don't think he has anything to gain by going back to school and probably a lot to lose.  His best option is to get drafted, sit a year, and come back strong in 2021.

Unfortunately for the tide, this is true and I'd bet he knows it. 

Trying to guess the future here, I think he leaves and is still taken in the 1st.  Could be late if he's unable to show much before the draft.

He'd be an ideal pick for the Patriots, the Dolphins could take him 1.25, or the colts or Panthers trade up from the 2 to SF's 1st, especially as Lynch should want to acquire a couple day 2 picks.

Edited by -OZ-

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Posted (edited)

According to Laura Rutledge at ESPN if he returns to school it will be for family reasons — his brother is on the team, his family lives in Tuscaloosa. And Dylan Moses (LB projected as a first rounder) is coming back to be part of a national title run so Tua may want to get on board as well. 
I hope whatever he decides turns out well for him. He seems like a great kid. Going back just seems like such a huge risk given his injury history. 

Edited by DAG

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Everything I am hearing is that hes coming back.  Wrong decision imo but hey it's his decision and as a bama fan I'm definitely cool with it.

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

I don't think he has anything to gain by going back to school and probably a lot to lose.  His best option is to get drafted, sit a year, and come back strong in 2021.

Agree 100%.  I don't think he has anything more to prove at this point.  He's been great on the field and has won the title.  Another year in college just gives opportunity for his stock to fall, imo.  Get drafted, get the best possible treatment and rehab the NFL will provided, start learning the system of your team and learn a year behind the current guy. 

Then come out strong in 2021 and he'll be ahead of the QBs drafted in 2021 in terms of NFL knowledge and preparation.  

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Tua will announce his plans for next season at a press conference tomorrow at NOON EST, with Saban.

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1 hour ago, gump said:

Tua will announce his plans for next season at a press conference tomorrow at NOON EST, with Saban.

We're fully expecting him to leave. 

Get drafted by the Patriots.

And we get to watch another dynasty.

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1 hour ago, -OZ- said:

We're fully expecting him to leave. 

Get drafted by the Patriots.

And we get to watch another dynasty.

Not a chance he falls to the Patriots and they don’t have the capital to move up.  He won’t make it out of the top 10, or past Indy at 13.

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