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kyoun1e

Selling High on the New England Defense

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Been riding this D since I drafted them. Would be hard to part with them, but the schedule is going to start to look sketchy:

@NYJ (Good matchup, but was better when Darnold was out).

CLE (Mayfield turning it over)

@BALT (Not so good)

Bye (obviously not good)

@PHI (Not great)

DAL (Not great)

@HOU (Not great, o line hasn't allowed a sack in 2 games now)

KC (Not good)

@CINC (Good)

BUF (Good)

Good stretch of games starting week 8 where the matchup is not there like it has been with the week 1 - 6 creampuff schedule.

I'm not saying the NE D suddenly becomes terrible. I'm sure they'll be a top D the rest of the year, but can you you just stream? And meanwhile, maybe get something of serious value in return now (like...um...a non waiver TE to replace that bum OJ Howard; That means you buy low target Z. Ertz).

I was lucky enough to grab the Bills D and I see that a tag team of BUF and PIT leaves zero gaps through week 16.

Anyone giving it a go?

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I might for a Buff/Jets combo. Jets get Miami twice, Buffalo gets them one more time.

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Following this for ideas. Balt and KC are the only ones that really concern me, though. Maybe PHI if the Eagles can get their crap together by then. Maybe there are some streaming options to just pair for those few weeks.

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3 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I might for a Buff/Jets combo. Jets get Miami twice, Buffalo gets them one more time.

Yup, Jets a good option as well.

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1 minute ago, kyoun1e said:

Yup, Jets a good option as well.

Jets schedule is sick, and Sam is back, which means they won't be constantly on defense with a short field ahead for the opposition. I have found that real quality defenses that aren't bona fide top-tier are especially dependent on offenses and punters to provide them with field position advantages.

Darnold will help the Jets out in this way.

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3 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Jets schedule is sick, and Sam is back, which means they won't be constantly on defense with a short field ahead for the opposition. I have found that real quality defenses that aren't bona fide top-tier are especially dependent on offenses and punters to provide them with field position advantages.

Darnold will help the Jets out in this way.

And aren't they still missing Mosely?

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Just now, kyoun1e said:

And aren't they still missing Mosely?

Yes. But he should be back in a couple or they've been lying all year. I'd give the Jets some time before anyone picks them up off of the wire. They've got NE and Jax next two weeks. Then the fun begins. 

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Holding NE and pairing with the Jets.

Their schedules are perfectly complementary, and while I don't expect them to keep cranking out the TDs, I've seen enough to know that they will be solid even against some of the higher performing/octane offenses.

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2 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Do people trade for defenses?

I'm going to find out.

My league is in the Boston area, so a lot of homers may take the bait.

NE is the 13th ranked "player" in fantasy right now. That's gotta be worth something.

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4 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Do people trade for defenses?

:shark:

The guy on the left has been known to do so from time to time...

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Depends what you can get for them. IMO, they could easily still be the #1 defense the rest of the way . . . just not by leaps and bounds. The crazy return TD's are going to go away, but they should still have a lot of sacks and still a lot of turnovers.

I have posted a lot in other threads that NE historically has excelled in the following situations: 1) facing rookie QB's, 2) playing against QB's 25 or younger, 3) going up against QB's that haven't faced them before, 4) playing at home. Here's who is on their schedule . . . and which category that game galls under)


At NYJ - Darnold (2)
CLE - Mayfield (2, 3, 4)
At BAL - Jackson (2, 3)
At PHI - Wentz (3)
DAL - Prescott (3, 4)
At HOU - Watson (2)
KCC - Mahomes (2, 4)
At CIN - Dalton (None)
BUF - Allen (2, 4)
MIA - Rosen (2, 3, 4)

So of their remaining slate of opponents, only Dalton doesn't fit any of the categories I mentioned. And the NE offense gets healthier, they could also put pressure on other teams to have to pass / become one dimensional.

Realistically, the NE won't be running laps around other fantasy defenses like they have done so far, so if another owner wants to trade and part with a legit fantasy asset, by all means listen. I would be interested to hear what people are offering on the trade front for the Pats D.
 

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1 hour ago, kyoun1e said:

Been riding this D since I drafted them. Would be hard to part with them, but the schedule is going to start to look sketchy:

@NYJ (Good matchup, but was better when Darnold was out).

CLE (Mayfield turning it over)

@BALT (Not so good)

Bye (obviously not good)

@PHI (Not great)

DAL (Not great)

@HOU (Not great, o line hasn't allowed a sack in 2 games now)

KC (Not good)

@CINC (Good)

BUF (Good)

Good stretch of games starting week 8 where the matchup is not there like it has been with the week 1 - 6 creampuff schedule.

I'm not saying the NE D suddenly becomes terrible. I'm sure they'll be a top D the rest of the year, but can you you just stream? And meanwhile, maybe get something of serious value in return now (like...um...a non waiver TE to replace that bum OJ Howard; That means you buy low target Z. Ertz).

I was lucky enough to grab the Bills D and I see that a tag team of BUF and PIT leaves zero gaps through week 16.

Anyone giving it a go?

The BAL matchup is not terrible.  Jackson has feasted against terrible defenses and struggled against better defenses.  He threw 3 picks against the Steelers.

I am also going to pair them with the Jets.  Their schedule perfectly aligns with the Patriots.  You would get the following schedule:

NYJ, CLE, MIA, NYG, WAS,OAK,CIN,MIA,CIN,BUF

That's a pretty juicy schedule.  You use NE for Weeks 7-8, use NYJ sched for 9-14, and NE for 15-16.  Total record of this schedule is 13-36.  Only OAK and BUF have winning records.  BUF plays week 16 at NE, and last time Allen imploded against them.

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Obviously it depends on the price. I just tried to trade for them and got shot down because the guy wanted more than I was willing to pay.

Projections right now should have NE as the top defense over the rest of the season, and for the wk 15-16 fantasy playoffs. Obviously you shouldn't have them projected to match what they've been doing, and obviously there is enough noise from week to week so that they are unlikely to be the #1 defense in any given week. And probably some other defense will outscore them over the rest of the season thanks to a bunch of DST touchdowns. But we don't know which defense that will be, so we can't follow the strategy of going after that mystery defense. So on average I'd expect "get the Patriots D" to result in more points (and more fantasy playoffs points) than whatever you'll wind up doing if you don't have them.

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59 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Do people trade for defenses?

I traded FOR the NE defense after week 2. I traded away Jared Goff and the Cowboys D (he needed a QB. Not sure he got one though).

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52 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Was offered the NE Defense (incoming) for Hopkins (outgoing).

Thinking of offering NE D for Ertz. Ertz owner has J. Graham as well and is 1-5.

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IMO any time you can trade a TD away for a meaningful player it's a good move

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3 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

@CINC (Good)

I wouldn’t underestimate this one. It’s week 15 and it could put a FF team in the league championship.

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Just got offered TJ Hockenson for the NE D.

I'm a desperate OJ Howard owner. Considering it...since I was able to snag the Buffalo D and also see a couple other D's that I could match up well with this D.

Too little for NE D?

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You people are nuts. None of those matchups scare me at all besides KC. Holding ros.

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8 minutes ago, Weebs210 said:

You people are nuts. None of those matchups scare me at all besides KC. Holding ros.

The only one that scares me is their BYE week.

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44 minutes ago, Bad_Mo said:

The only one that scares me is their BYE week.

Same, in a 4 player bench league it's going to be a tough drop.

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1 hour ago, Weebs210 said:

You people are nuts. None of those matchups scare me at all besides KC. Holding ros.

Gotta love people tripping over their own Hot Dog Jaurons on their way to a title game.

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Definitely should trade them. They're the number 1 defense rest of the year, but highly doubtful by such a margin. Take any trade paying for the unsustainable points this far. 

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Trying to locate trade value charts. It's hard to gauge what you should be able to fetch for the NE D...at minimum.

Is a flex worthy starter appropriate?

A non-waiver wire TE?

Curious what people are fetching in legit leagues where dopes aren't trading RB1s for NE.

 

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8 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

Trying to locate trade value charts. It's hard to gauge what you should be able to fetch for the NE D...at minimum.

Is a flex worthy starter appropriate?

Hell no.

A non-waiver wire TE?

No.

Curious what people are fetching in legit leagues where dopes aren't trading RB1s for NE.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

Trying to locate trade value charts. It's hard to gauge what you should be able to fetch for the NE D...at minimum.

Is a flex worthy starter appropriate?

A non-waiver wire TE?

Curious what people are fetching in legit leagues where dopes aren't trading RB1s for NE.

 

A lot will depend on the league and how much trade activity there is. In one league, I have Mahomes and Wilson (with horrible RB's). I have been trying to shop a QB for a RB upgrade and even teams with poor QB options won't give me more than a RB3 in return. I don't have the NE DEF in that league, but I would imagine they would only get an offer for a WR4. This league typically doesn't get a ton of trades as the offers / counter offers are usually way off on the value scale.

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I think people aren't factoring in the marginal value of the Pats D. 

Even if/when they come down to earth, the points added by the Pats D over a wavier-wire FA can be much more significant than the drop from a WR2 to WR3. 

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Ertz owner is biting. I'd have to throw in Miles Sanders as well.

Again have BUF D, could pick up PIT, NYJ who have great matchups.

And my RB depth is S. Barkley, K. Johnson, T. Colemen, A. Ekeler, A. Mattison, D. Henderson.

Very tempted to pull the trigger. Feel like Sanders is a year away.

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5 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

Ertz owner is biting. I'd have to throw in Miles Sanders as well.

Again have BUF D, could pick up PIT, NYJ who have great matchups.

And my RB depth is S. Barkley, K. Johnson, T. Colemen, A. Ekeler, A. Mattison, D. Henderson.

Very tempted to pull the trigger. Feel like Sanders is a year away.

Definetly do that.

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On the subject of can you trade a defense..

 

I just shipped SF defense, JuJu(thank god), mark Andrews (have kittle) and Will Fuller to the last place 1-5 team, who just lost Dissly and desperate for wins.. (10 team league, 8 make the playoffs, so he's still "in it".

FOR

Nuke, Marquise Brown and DJAX. Now I have too much depth at WR, but I love the upside of brown and Djax when healthy. My starting roster can easily sustain until they get fully back. 

Side note : this is a league of mostly people who haven't played fantasy before. They talk a big game though, and plenty of s**t talk after I went 0-3, literally losing to the only team who could beat me each week, so that makes it even more fun for me now. 

Daddy needs the $200 bucks (small money league + big bragging rights, with coworkers). Thats almost half of the kids Christmas budget though! (I have a 2, 4 and 9 year old)

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I am not letting this win against a clearly shell-shocked Jets team overinflate my expectations.

Pats still have to go up against a stretch of quality opponents, and I am sure there will be regression.

That said? Not selling.

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From SOSH:

The Pats defense, with 25 more fantasy points tonight, now have 156 on the season. Here are the only players with more:

Russell Wilson
Lamar Jackson
Deshaun Watson
Patrick Mahomes
Dak Prescott
Matt Ryan
Aaron Rodgers

FYI, 156 fantasy points for a defense would be like top 3 for a full season in a normal year.

The next closest is the 9'ers at 96, then the Panthers at 77.
 

The highest non-QB is Christian McCaffrey at 146.3 (non-PPR leagues).

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12 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

I am not letting this win against a clearly shell-shocked Jets team overinflate my expectations.

Pats still have to go up against a stretch of quality opponents, and I am sure there will be regression.

That said? Not selling.

The same jets team that looked good against the cowboys. Pat's D shell-shocked them. QBs are averaging around 4-5 points against Pat's defense this year. BB is running the defense this year, I'm not worried about any of the upcoming matchups. Anyone who sells is insane (unless you get an rb1)

Edited by Weebs210

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Hoping for another big week against CLE and then I'm going to start sending ridiculous sell offers to see if I can get anyone to bite

Edited by BradtheAg
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2 minutes ago, Weebs210 said:

The same jets team that looked good against the cowboys. Pat's D shell-Shoked them. QBs are averaging around 4-5 points against Pat's defense this year. BB is running the defense this year, I'm not worried about any of the upcoming matchups. Anyone who sells is insane (unless you get an rb1)

It's crazy how productive they've been in the settings of the league I'm in.  Points allowed doesn't matter (unless it's a shutout +10)  1 point or 99 allowed is 0 points.  5 points for under 150 passing and 5 points for under 100 rushing allowed have been the big +10 per week.  Sacks, Ints, FR's are all +1 it's amazing. 

In a short bench league I might just start them on bye and take the 0.

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In FFPC scoring I have the Pats as the overall RB4 or as the WR4. Insane.

Edited by barackdhouse
ETA in PPG

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5 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

In FFPC scoring I have the Pats as the overall RB4 or as the WR4. Insane.

Insane, just checked my settings,  QB 8,  RB4, WR1, TE 1

 

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These are my (very important) thoughts from the Team Defense thread:

Quote


8 vs Browns

9 at Ravens

10 Bye          

11 at Eagles

12 vs Cowboys

13 at Texans

14 vs Chiefs

15 at Bengals

16 vs Bills

  On 10/3/2019 at 9:39 AM, Long Ball Larry said:

i drafted the Pats specifically for the 1st half and then figured that I would decide later what to do.  I have been strongly considering the Jets and if I can maintain my position in the standings, will probably hope they are still there in a couple weeks (or someone else that looks good) and hold 2 defenses.

I think that they are really locked in and I don't know that the Browns or Ravens concern me that much against the Pats.  I think that Belichick can figure out how to confuse the young QBs.  So it's really about that stretch from 10-14.  I still probably wouldn't be opposed to just rolling with them throughout, as the secondary seems pretty nasty and they look fantastic overall, aside from the competition.

  On 10/21/2019 at 9:39 AM, Long Ball Larry said:

Interesting to look at this again.

As of now, Eagles and Cowboys don't look like obvious bad match-ups.  Texans could definitely be feisty, but they have 5 turnovers the past 2 games and have given up the 8th-most sacks on the year.  Chiefs seem like they will have Mahomes back, but there is definitely a chance that he won't really be himself.

In leagues where points allowed are heavily penalized, you still might have an issue, but I think that just rolling all the way through with NE is not a bad strategy.

 

 

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I think you just enjoy the ride, few are gonna offer up what the Patriots defense has literally been worth to date.

I wouldn't sell at a discount under the theory that they can't keep it up much longer. They are well coached and aggressive and talented.

Edited by Jacksonke1
spelling
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Averaging 26.5 points per game in my league.

They are the fourth overall scoring entity after only Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson. They are beating Mahomes by over 5 points. 

I don't expect them to scoring over 30 for me as they have already have done thrice as they approach their tougher stretch.

But I do expect them to continue to be a force.

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Yeah they are a cheat code so far. The stretch does look tougher, though. Last week I picked up the Jets defense everywhere and the Colts in a couple spots. I think the Colts play Miami during the Patriots week 10 bye. But maybe Fitzpatrick makes them better now, IDK. And maybe the Jets heart is broke and won't play hard now. IDK. Thinking more and more I will just autostart the Pats and maybe keep thinking about week 10 only.

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Scroll down the article to see just how dominant the NEP defense has been.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27910887/barnwell-nfl-stat-comparisons-shock-14-blind-items

It says the NEP defensive scoring is so dominant, so many standard deviations removed from the mean, that it's the same standard deviation from the mean that its 2007 offensive scoring was. Now that's nuts. 

Edited by rockaction
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