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Selling High on the New England Defense (1 Viewer)

Averaging 26.5 points per game in my league.

They are the fourth overall scoring entity after only Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson. They are beating Mahomes by over 5 points. 

I don't expect them to scoring over 30 for me as they have already have done thrice as they approach their tougher stretch.

But I do expect them to continue to be a force.
they've broken ESPN's IBM watson projection system.... they've been averaging 20 in my scoring format.... yet the stupid watson thing or whatever espn uses has them only at 8.5 this week.... it refuses to project them scoring so high despite 6 of 7 weeks being the case

 
they've broken ESPN's IBM watson projection system.... they've been averaging 20 in my scoring format.... yet the stupid watson thing or whatever espn uses has them only at 8.5 this week.... it refuses to project them scoring so high despite 6 of 7 weeks being the case
Browns this week so we can pretty much account for one defensive td at minimum.

 
 And maybe the Jets heart is broke and won't play hard now. IDK. Thinking more and more I will just autostart the Pats and maybe keep thinking about week 10 only.
I picked up the Jets too -- Mosely still looked dinged, or maybe just lost. This weekend will be really telling against JAX -- Poole is the only bright spot at corner though their safeties are decent. Their rush D is still solid. If they come back to form a little against the Jags, will be more confident in holding them to platoon with NE through their hard stretch weeks 11-14.

Otherwise, may make sense to free up the roster spot and manage NE bye in week 10.

That said, I think NE's FP regression will start this weekend. CLE has looked horrid this weekend, but have the talent to match the talent on the other side of the ball. I don't think we'll see a 20 point weekend from NE. 

 
I picked up the Jets too -- Mosely still looked dinged, or maybe just lost. This weekend will be really telling against JAX -- Poole is the only bright spot at corner though their safeties are decent. Their rush D is still solid. If they come back to form a little against the Jags, will be more confident in holding them to platoon with NE through their hard stretch weeks 11-14.

Otherwise, may make sense to free up the roster spot and manage NE bye in week 10.

That said, I think NE's FP regression will start this weekend. CLE has looked horrid this weekend, but have the talent to match the talent on the other side of the ball. I don't think we'll see a 20 point weekend from NE. 
I don't know. That Cleveland offensive line is pretty terrible and Baker likes to throw the ball up for grabs a lot.

 
I picked up the Jets too -- Mosely still looked dinged, or maybe just lost. This weekend will be really telling against JAX -- Poole is the only bright spot at corner though their safeties are decent. Their rush D is still solid. If they come back to form a little against the Jags, will be more confident in holding them to platoon with NE through their hard stretch weeks 11-14.

Otherwise, may make sense to free up the roster spot and manage NE bye in week 10.

That said, I think NE's FP regression will start this weekend. CLE has looked horrid this weekend, but have the talent to match the talent on the other side of the ball. I don't think we'll see a 20 point weekend from NE. 
IR not ruled out for Mosley. Leonard Williams is on the trading block. Might want to rethink the Jets. I did and dropped them in one league, and am about to drop in another.

 
I am beginning to feel that the Patriots defense would start falling back to the back, but after thinking more about it, I think they will still do very well based on the QB's they have to face. Even though they schedule gets tougher, they still will play young / led experienced QB's ot QB's that haven't faced them. NE has fared very well in those situations with their typical defenses. Now that they have an even stronger unit, I expect those QB's to struggle. So compared to their first 7 games, probably a lot fewer defensive TD's and fewer turnovers, but still pretty stout on limiting points and yardage. I expect a ton of pressure on Baker this week and multiple sacks. Whether he gets strip sacked or throws balls up for grabs for interceptions is always had to predict. So I would guess something along the lines of 5-6 sacks, a couple of turnovers, no return TD's, and 9-10 points allowed and around 200 yards allowed.

The Niners only gave up 3 points and 180 yards to go along with 4 turnovers forced and 4 sacks three weeks ago. I can't suddenly see the Browns offense clicking and the Patriots defense struggling. MAYBE the fact that NE is on a short week and CLE is coming off a bye keeps the score from being absurd, but NE should still win going away . . . like 31-6.

And if anyone cared . . . here's how the 92 drives by opponents have gone so far for opponents . . .

- 26 times 3 and Outs / Punts
- 21 times Ending in Punts
- 18 Interceptions
- 7 times Turnover on Downs
- 6 times End of Half
- 5 Fumble Recoveries
- 3 Touchdowns
- 2 Blocked Punts (Not included in Punts)
- 2 Field Goals
- 1 Missed FG
- 1 Safety 

The defense has scored 5 defensive TD's and a safety (37 points) while allowing 3 TD's and 2 FG's (27 points). Basically, the defense has a +10 scoring differential, which is insane.

 
I picked up the Indy D to pair with them.

Indy plays Miami during the Pats bye week, and they play the Bucs during the KC week. That’s good enough for me.

 
Bill Belichick.

Freddie Kitchens.

Ponder that for a bit.
This. That said, I do think Mayfield will connect on at least a couple deep throws to OBJ or Landry, like what Golden Tate was able to do to them. The defense brings pressure but eventually someone is going to beat them with big shots downfield. It really helps that they have faced hot garbage at QB through 7 games. 

 
I am beginning to feel that the Patriots defense would start falling back to the back, but after thinking more about it, I think they will still do very well based on the QB's they have to face. Even though they schedule gets tougher, they still will play young / led experienced QB's ot QB's that haven't faced them. NE has fared very well in those situations with their typical defenses. Now that they have an even stronger unit, I expect those QB's to struggle. So compared to their first 7 games, probably a lot fewer defensive TD's and fewer turnovers, but still pretty stout on limiting points and yardage. I expect a ton of pressure on Baker this week and multiple sacks. Whether he gets strip sacked or throws balls up for grabs for interceptions is always had to predict. So I would guess something along the lines of 5-6 sacks, a couple of turnovers, no return TD's, and 9-10 points allowed and around 200 yards allowed.

The Niners only gave up 3 points and 180 yards to go along with 4 turnovers forced and 4 sacks three weeks ago. I can't suddenly see the Browns offense clicking and the Patriots defense struggling. MAYBE the fact that NE is on a short week and CLE is coming off a bye keeps the score from being absurd, but NE should still win going away . . . like 31-6.

And if anyone cared . . . here's how the 92 drives by opponents have gone so far for opponents . . .

- 26 times 3 and Outs / Punts
- 21 times Ending in Punts
- 18 Interceptions
- 7 times Turnover on Downs
- 6 times End of Half
- 5 Fumble Recoveries
- 3 Touchdowns
- 2 Blocked Punts (Not included in Punts)
- 2 Field Goals
- 1 Missed FG
- 1 Safety 

The defense has scored 5 defensive TD's and a safety (37 points) while allowing 3 TD's and 2 FG's (27 points). Basically, the defense has a +10 scoring differential, which is insane.
Yeah it really comes down to the opposing QBs. After CLE, they have 5 games in a row against 5 of the best QBs in the league. I think the game at HOU will be particularly telling. To date, they have been curb stomping some really terrible teams that are poorly coached as well.

 
Bill Belichick.

Freddie Kitchens.

Ponder that for a bit.
BB's Pats have had a problem with strong defensive fronts, cle has a sack happy bunch ( Garrett is a machine),  have problems with strong run games, Nick Chubb is the best RB they've faced yet this season. have always had problems with fast WRs with good hands , cleveland has a load of these.BB's teams have had problems with scrambling, running qb's like Mayfield. Browns come off a bye Pats are heading to a bye.could be a trap game.

I'm not saying the Browns will win or anything like that I'm saying the Pats have not looked good offensively, and this defensive front will get after, and harass, Tom Brady.. OBJ and the rest of the Browns Wrs will do damage to that defense. Nick Chubb will do well.

I would expect the Browns to play inspired football just like they did when they played the Seahawks. 

 
BB's Pats have had a problem with strong defensive fronts, cle has a sack happy bunch ( Garrett is a machine),  have problems with strong run games, Nick Chubb is the best RB they've faced yet this season. have always had problems with fast WRs with good hands , cleveland has a load of these.BB's teams have had problems with scrambling, running qb's like Mayfield. Browns come off a bye Pats are heading to a bye.could be a trap game.

I'm not saying the Browns will win or anything like that I'm saying the Pats have not looked good offensively, and this defensive front will get after, and harass, Tom Brady.. OBJ and the rest of the Browns Wrs will do damage to that defense. Nick Chubb will do well.

I would expect the Browns to play inspired football just like they did when they played the Seahawks. 
We must be watching different NFL seasons. 

 
We must be watching different NFL seasons. 
No, Tanner's got this one, all right, at least in his diagnoses of what it takes to beat New England and what Cleveland purports to be. I just don't know is Cleveland is up to playing inspired enough to make up for significant gaps in talent. 

 
No, Tanner's got this one, all right, at least in his diagnoses of what it takes to beat New England and what Cleveland purports to be. I just don't know is Cleveland is up to playing inspired enough to make up for significant gaps in talent. 
IMO, Pats will feast on inexperience of Mayfield and Kitchens. I expect similar outcome as games against Allen and Darnold. How fast or talented their other skill position players won’t matter at all. 

 
I'm going to find out.

My league is in the Boston area, so a lot of homers may take the bait.

NE is the 13th ranked "player" in fantasy right now. That's gotta be worth something.
They would be the number 5 receiver and the number 1 TE. 

If you can flip them for a quality player do it. 

If you keep them, pick up Indy D for their bye. Indy play's Miami at home.

 
Anarchy99 said:
IMO, Pats will feast on inexperience of Mayfield and Kitchens. I expect similar outcome as games against Allen and Darnold. How fast or talented their other skill position players won’t matter at all. 
Yeah, if you'll note my carefully worded language like "purport" and "talent gap" you can tell I'm sort of leaning that way, too. It's just that Tanner9919 wasn't that far off-base in his assessment of what beats the Pats vis a vis what the Browns try to be. 

 
rockaction said:
No, Tanner's got this one, all right, at least in his diagnoses of what it takes to beat New England and what Cleveland purports to be. I just don't know is Cleveland is up to playing inspired enough to make up for significant gaps in talent. 
I think that's a generous assessment of the Pats Ds flaws. And saying a team struggles vs fast WRs with good hands is like saying a QB struggles vs teams that get pressure with a four man front. 

And while Pats O hasn't been the 2018 chiefs they are scoring plenty. Says a lot for their high standards.  

This is a 30-13 (tops) type game. And I'll be putting my money where my mouth is. 

 
I think that's a generous assessment of the Pats Ds flaws. And saying a team struggles vs fast WRs with good hands is like saying a QB struggles vs teams that get pressure with a four man front. 

And while Pats O hasn't been the 2018 chiefs they are scoring plenty. Says a lot for their high standards.  

This is a 30-13 (tops) type game. And I'll be putting my money where my mouth is. 
I was going to agree with the hands/four man front thing, but then thought that they are fast with good hands. OBJ was clocked at serious MPH this year against the Jets, and Landry, while no burner, can get open with soft hands. Callaway is a pure burner if they don't start Higgins. I'd imagine Callaway strecthes the field and Landry and OBJ operate underneath. Should be an interesting game; I'm a little less sanguine than you about it being a NEP blowout.

 
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They would be the number 5 receiver and the number 1 TE. 

If you can flip them for a quality player do it. 

If you keep them, pick up Indy D for their bye. Indy play's Miami at home.
I already did.

Sold NE D and M. Sanders for Z. Ertz (and I owned OJ Howard at the time).

On paper liked it although Ertz trending down.

That said, I have the BUF and PIT D now and feel pretty good about it. Feel like I got Ertz for free.

 
I already did.

Sold NE D and M. Sanders for Z. Ertz (and I owned OJ Howard at the time).

On paper liked it although Ertz trending down.

That said, I have the BUF and PIT D now and feel pretty good about it. Feel like I got Ertz for free.
IMO, in standard scoring NE defense and a replacement TE will outscore Ertz and your defenses rest of schedule.  But the issue is other owners won’t offer a ton for a defense. 

 
IMO, in standard scoring NE defense and a replacement TE will outscore Ertz and your defenses rest of schedule.  But the issue is other owners won’t offer a ton for a defense. 
Possible.

My thinking behind this was the easy pickins are behind us with that opening schedule. Upcoming is a bye week along with matchups against BALT, PHI, KC, HOU. Feel like some regression to the mean is inevitable.

 
Possible.

My thinking behind this was the easy pickins are behind us with that opening schedule. Upcoming is a bye week along with matchups against BALT, PHI, KC, HOU. Feel like some regression to the mean is inevitable.
I think you did the right thing. You picked up two solid defenses with great future match ups to replace New England. I agree that there will be regression with their points going forward. Upgrading from Howard to Ertz is huge. I think Ertz downward trend has more to do with the injury to Jason Peters which is affecting the whole offense. Ertz is an elite TE and he will get his numbers.

 
Possible.

My thinking behind this was the easy pickins are behind us with that opening schedule. Upcoming is a bye week along with matchups against BALT, PHI, KC, HOU. Feel like some regression to the mean is inevitable.
Every league has different scoring, but in the league I have the NE defense, they’ve scored 2.5 times more points than the #3 defense. (SFO is in the middle.). The point being, they could level off some and still be a huge fantasy asset. 

 
Tanner9919 said:
BB's Pats have had a problem with strong defensive fronts, cle has a sack happy bunch ( Garrett is a machine)
PIT has more sacks than CLE and only sacked Brady once. 

PFF Projects 1.6 sacks for CLE tomorrow. 

I'm saying the Pats have not looked good offensively,
The pats have scored more points than any other team. Of course you’ll parrot “they’ve not played anyone”, but CLE DEF is 24rd in DVOA Behind BUF (12), NYJ x2 (10), and PIT (9). NE averaged 28ppg against those teams and the only time they didn’t break 30 was a road game against a divisional opponent.

CLE DVOA are a RCH ahead of WAS and NYG (25/26 respectively - who NEP avg 34ppg against) though.... so they’ve got that going for them, which is nice.

If this is NEP not looking good offensively, it’s not looking good for the rest of the league when they hit mid season form. 

Oh, and that “spirited” game vs CLE was loss at home to a #22 DVOA / #13 Sagarin squad. Tomorrow they face the #1 DVOA / #1 Sagarin squad... on the road... against a coach and QB who have a pretty decent record against 1st/2nd year QBs.

If that was a Good performance.. by the time you factor in the 4pt loss, the home/away swing (5pts) and the 10pt gap between NE & SEA (sagarin) that puts CLE at +19.. if they have another “sprited” performance.  
 

Your general idea isn’t too bad... but I think you’re writing checks the CLE offense cant cash.
 

Any given Sunday? Of course!

This Sunday? I highly doubt it.

 
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I think we've hit the point where the ne d is a trend.  Unless you can get someone to overpay the difference between them and the average starting d is too high to overcome.

 
Barkley? 
naw

Kamara? 
naw

Mahomes? 
Naw

no player Outside CMC has a single higher point ratio advantage over POS5 

 
Clearly a D that keeps performing. Not sure CLE was the stoutest of tests, but I do know that it will be interesting to see when this D may not be putting up 20+ points a game for my squad after the bye, and how the other vulnerabilities of my team might come out without the continuous point cushion NE has delivered through the season thus far.

 
Hurt

Hurt

Hurt

CMC

What point were you trying to make?
I’ll spell it out for ya... 

QB1 > QB5 (avg starter) = 47Pt advantage

RB1 > RB5 = 64pt advantage

WR1 > WR5 = 39pt advantage

TE1 > TE5 = 47pt advantage 

NE DEF > DEF5 = 109pt advange (nearly double their score. 

They have a 74pt advantage over DEF2... Nearly 10PPG! 
 

They have the highest point total of any “player” in pretty standard scoring, and have the largest positional advantage by far. 
 

NE DEF is the most valuable asset in FF this year. Wouldn’t trade them for anyone. 

 
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I own them and wouldn't trade them because I'd never get equal value.  They also play @Cincy and Buffalo in weeks 15/16....I'm 7-1 so I hope I at least make it to week 15 lol. 

I picked up Indy last week since they play Miami on their bye.  Then they get Jax at home while NE is at Philly.  Week 12 is at home vs Dallas which doesn't scare me, but the Browns are at home vs Miami that week and also play at home vs Cincy in wk14.  I might look for someone in weeks 13/14 when they're @Hou/KC.  Indy plays Tenn/@TB those weeks which isn't terrible.

GB and Philly are on my wire and have some cupcake matchups weeks 13-15

Philly...@Mia, NYG, @Wash

GB...@NYG, Wash, Chi

 
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I’ll spell it out for ya... 

QB1 > QB5 (avg starter) = 47Pt advantage

RB1 > RB5 = 64pt advantage

WR1 > WR5 = 39pt advantage

TE1 > TE5 = 47pt advantage 

NE DEF > DEF5 = 109pt advange (nearly double their score. 

They have a 74pt advantage over DEF2... Nearly 10PPG! 
 

They have the highest point total of any “player” in pretty standard scoring, and have the largest positional advantage by far. 
 

NE DEF is the most valuable asset in FF this year. Wouldn’t trade them for anyone. 
The 5th highest scoring defense has zero fantasy value.  If you traded the Patriots, you could easily acquire the 5th best defense.  If you traded CMC, you're not going to pick up the 5th highest scoring running back from the waiver wire or trade for them for peanuts.  So a more apt comparison would be to compare the top player at those positions with a bottom of the barrel starter or a player available on the waiver wire in which case the positional advantage of the Patriots defense is far less significant.

 
They're everything that's wrong with fantasy football: their owners got a little bit lucky having them, and I don't have them on any of my teams.

 
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The 5th highest scoring defense has zero fantasy value.  If you traded the Patriots, you could easily acquire the 5th best defense.  If you traded CMC, you're not going to pick up the 5th highest scoring running back from the waiver wire or trade for them for peanuts.  So a more apt comparison would be to compare the top player at those positions with a bottom of the barrel starter or a player available on the waiver wire in which case the positional advantage of the Patriots defense is far less significant.
That is some interesting mathmagical gymnastics you’re pulling there. 

They are the highest scoring “player” in many leagues. 

They have the single largest per game advance over the next “player” of any position.

They offer the biggest week to week advantage you can have in your lineup. They are ~16 free bonus points over your opponent’s starter at the position every week. 
 

No other “player” offers that. 

 
NE DEF is the most valuable asset in FF this year. Wouldn’t trade them for anyone. 
You're analysis is a bit off. Since you start 2 rbs and 2-3 wrs plus whatever flex rules, you'd have to dive a little deeper for a baseline in those. Positional ranking 5 turns into 10 or 20. And why ranking 5 anyway? It's arbitrary.  

Besides that, they've been a top fantasy asset for half the year so far. Whether it continues is the main question. If you think they'll have season totals of 40 interceptions and 12 tds allowing only 80 points, well I can't say I agree. Eventually a team will learn to run the dam ball.

 
And why ranking 5 anyway? It's arbitrary. 
It's worse than arbitrary.  Using the 5th ranked player makes no sense.  The 5th ranked running back has huge value.  If a fantasy owner trades CMC, the owner doesn't have the 5th highest scoring running back sitting on his bench ready to be inserted.  The fantasy owner who trades CMC will probably replace him the the 30th or 40th ranked running back.  But if you trade the Patriots defense, you can literally pick up the 5th highest scoring defense from the waiver wire (I looked in my big money league and the 4th, 5th, and 6th highest scoring defenses are available).

 
You're analysis is a bit off. Since you start 2 rbs and 2-3 wrs plus whatever flex rules, you'd have to dive a little deeper for a baseline in those. Positional ranking 5 turns into 10 or 20. And why ranking 5 anyway? It's arbitrary.  

Besides that, they've been a top fantasy asset for half the year so far. Whether it continues is the main question. If you think they'll have season totals of 40 interceptions and 12 tds allowing only 80 points, well I can't say I agree. Eventually a team will learn to run the dam ball.
After all these years, I still don’t understand why teams haven’t figured out the steps to beat NE. 1) NE usually is happy to have teams run the football. That usually means they aren’t allowing big plays and usually the other team will get a dumb penalty, so most of the time NE doesn’t care. 2) Similarly, NE will usually give teams the underneath dump off passes. Get a four yard run and a five yard swing pass and suddenly it’s 3rd and 1 and not 3rd and 10.

For some reason that I have yet to figure out, most teams try to run much longer routes that usually won’t work but will get their QB clubbed like a baby seal. Many times, the best outcome many times will be an incomplete pass. But INT, sack, strip sack all are in play. 

After doing items 1 and 2, then teams can pick their spots to go for big plays. But for some reason they want to skip 1 and 2.

3) Defensively, teams have been covering mid to long range routes and they leave the shallow routes open for Brady to pick them apart. The Patriots line is a mess right now, so teams should cover the LOS to ten yards and force Brady to go over the top. Mix in a random blitzer and NE would be in trouble. They can’t really run the ball this year, and they basically have Edelman and White to worry about. Sure, once or twice a game they will  get Dorsett open for a deeper pass, but IMO Brady wont have enough time to consistently hit 20+ yard routes that take time to develop. 

That being said, I still think the Pats offense will start doing better with Watson, Burkhead, Harry, Sanu, and Wynn getting integrated into the offense (and they still may add another piece by tomorrow). 

I sure make things sound simple, but very few teams seem to have much of a game plan these days. 

 
After all these years, I still don’t understand why teams haven’t figured out the steps to beat NE. 1) NE usually is happy to have teams run the football. That usually means they aren’t allowing big plays and usually the other team will get a dumb penalty, so most of the time NE doesn’t care. 2) Similarly, NE will usually give teams the underneath dump off passes. Get a four yard run and a five yard swing pass and suddenly it’s 3rd and 1 and not 3rd and 10.

For some reason that I have yet to figure out, most teams try to run much longer routes that usually won’t work but will get their QB clubbed like a baby seal. Many times, the best outcome many times will be an incomplete pass. But INT, sack, strip sack all are in play. 

After doing items 1 and 2, then teams can pick their spots to go for big plays. But for some reason they want to skip 1 and 2.

3) Defensively, teams have been covering mid to long range routes and they leave the shallow routes open for Brady to pick them apart. The Patriots line is a mess right now, so teams should cover the LOS to ten yards and force Brady to go over the top. Mix in a random blitzer and NE would be in trouble. They can’t really run the ball this year, and they basically have Edelman and White to worry about. Sure, once or twice a game they will  get Dorsett open for a deeper pass, but IMO Brady wont have enough time to consistently hit 20+ yard routes that take time to develop. 

That being said, I still think the Pats offense will start doing better with Watson, Burkhead, Harry, Sanu, and Wynn getting integrated into the offense (and they still may add another piece by tomorrow). 

I sure make things sound simple, but very few teams seem to have much of a game plan these days. 
Yup. Browns would have been in that game if not for first quarter brain farts. Any team with a good RB that is patient enough to run the ball will  hang with them. But too many teams can't help making dumb mistakes. 

Really curious to see how they fare vs their first really mobile QB threat (Allen is more of a scrambler than designed runner.)

 
:lol:  It’s a little odd that I have to explain the number five…Number five was selected because it’s an average starter at a position in 10 team or 12 team leagues…coulda been 6.... coulda been 10. Same result. 

They’re also the biggest jump from 1st to 2nd. 

Simple question: 

In standard fantasy scoring, is there another player out there that has given you 10pts a week over the next best option, or ~16pts over the average person your opponent could trot out?  

:popcorn:  

 
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:lol:  It’s a little odd that I have to explain the number five…Number five was selected because it’s an average starter at a position in 10 team or 12 team leagues…coulda been 6.... coulda been 10. Same result. 

They’re also the biggest jump from 1st to 2nd.

Simple question: 

In standard fantasy scoring, is there another player out there that has given you 10pts a week over the next best option, or ~16pts over the average person your opponent could trot out? 
I agree that average starter is the best baseline and 5 or 6 would represent the median starter for positions where you start only 1, so yeah that's fair. Except 5 or 6 is not the median for positions like RB or WR.

To answer your question, sounds like NE is up there through week 8. Probably nobody has given you such an advantage. Pretty sure that Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook are close to 10 points/week over the median RB, not sure about Michael Thomas, or whoever wide receiver. The question avoided though is the ROS stuff. Will they keep this up? Unlikely. Most likely scenario: they're just a regular #1 defense the 2nd half of the season. You're not giving enough respect to the flukiness of turnovers and defensive TDs.

 
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Clearly a D that keeps performing. Not sure CLE was the stoutest of tests, but I do know that it will be interesting to see when this D may not be putting up 20+ points a game for my squad after the bye, and how the other vulnerabilities of my team might come out without the continuous point cushion NE has delivered through the season thus far.
https://www.si.com/nfl/browns/browns-maven-features/cleveland-browns-freddie-kitchens-is-a-frustrating-paradox/

  • ...The Patriots entered this game giving up 74.7 yards rushing per contest. The Browns rushed for 159 yards as a team fueled by Chubb's 131.
  • The Patriots were only giving up a remarkably low 4 yards per play and 223.3 total yards per game. The Browns generated 5.3 yards per play and had 310 total ..
  • The Patriots were only allowing teams to convert 12.7 percent of third down opportunities. The Browns converted 25 percent of their third downs.
The Browns did that AFTER turning the ball over in their first three possessions and with a HC who doesn't comprehend the challenge system or how to put in an offense instead of his punt unit when going for it on fourth down essentially giving the ball away and proving he can't instill discipline where his team gets 13 penalties.  

The Browns are much better than the perception which is skewed by poor coaching.  They aren't great but they are better than the record (they've faced the toughest schedule in the NFL so-far this season and face one of the 'easiest' the rest of year).

 
After all these years, I still don’t understand why teams haven’t figured out the steps to beat NE. 1) NE usually is happy to have teams run the football. That usually means they aren’t allowing big plays and usually the other team will get a dumb penalty, so most of the time NE doesn’t care. 2) Similarly, NE will usually give teams the underneath dump off passes. Get a four yard run and a five yard swing pass and suddenly it’s 3rd and 1 and not 3rd and 10.

For some reason that I have yet to figure out, most teams try to run much longer routes that usually won’t work but will get their QB clubbed like a baby seal. Many times, the best outcome many times will be an incomplete pass. But INT, sack, strip sack all are in play. 

After doing items 1 and 2, then teams can pick their spots to go for big plays. But for some reason they want to skip 1 and 2.

3) Defensively, teams have been covering mid to long range routes and they leave the shallow routes open for Brady to pick them apart. The Patriots line is a mess right now, so teams should cover the LOS to ten yards and force Brady to go over the top. Mix in a random blitzer and NE would be in trouble. They can’t really run the ball this year, and they basically have Edelman and White to worry about. Sure, once or twice a game they will  get Dorsett open for a deeper pass, but IMO Brady wont have enough time to consistently hit 20+ yard routes that take time to develop. 

That being said, I still think the Pats offense will start doing better with Watson, Burkhead, Harry, Sanu, and Wynn getting integrated into the offense (and they still may add another piece by tomorrow). 

I sure make things sound simple, but very few teams seem to have much of a game plan these days. 
There's a whole lot of dumb coaches now in the NFL who are too busy trying to be tricky. You got it right. NE is gonna make you work for the score. No big plays. However they use the same strategy against the other team....and it's working. Hog the ball on long double digit play drives and wear out the other team's D. By the 4th Q they start punching the other team's D right in the face. NE plays solid NFL football.

 
https://twitter.com/scottbarrettdfb/status/1188897067038584834?s=21

“New England's defense outscoring the No. 6 fantasy defense by 12.2 fantasy points per game — the same difference between the No. 1 wide receiver (Michael Thomas) and the wide receiver ranking 47th in fantasy points per game (Phillip Dorsett)."

I guess @Scottbarrett is a dummy for choosing the “arbitrary” number of 5 or 6, too. Someone should let PFF know. :lol:  

 

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