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ZWK

ZWK's 2020 Prospect Analysis

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RB fumble rates (touches per fumble), using data from cbssports player pages, with the 2015-17 RB classes included for context:

35.4    Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska    2015
39.9    Kenyan Drake, Alabama    2016
43.3    Alex Collins, Arkansas    2016
44.0    Daniel Lasco, California    2016
45.6    C.J. Prosise, Notre Dame    2016
51.1    DeAngelo Henderson, Coastal Carolina    2017
52.2    Marcus Cox, Appalachian State    2017
52.2    Kenny Hilliard, LSU    2015
53.8    Jonathan Taylor    Wisconsin    2020
54.3    Marlon Mack, South Florida    2017
54.4    Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin    2015
56.3    Justin Davis, USC    2017
57.7    Boom Williams, Kentucky    2017
58.0    Chuba Hubbard    Okla St    2020
61.2    Josh Ferguson, Illinois    2016
61.6    Wendell Smallwood, West Virginia    2016
62.2    T.J. Yeldon, Alabama    2015
62.6    Jay Ajayi, Boise State    2015
63.2    Matt Jones, Florida    2015
63.5    Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech    2016
63.8    Tre Madden, USC    2016
63.8    Dalvin Cook, Florida State    2017
65.4    Taquan Mizzell, Virginia    2017
65.6    Cam Akers    FSU    2020
69.8    Curtis Samuel, Ohio State    2017
71.0    Alvin Kamara, Tennessee    2017
71.1    Devontae Booker, Utah    2016
72.0    Jonathan Williams, Arkansas    2016
72.3    Tevin Coleman, Indiana    2015
73.0    Joe Mixon, Oklahoma    2017
73.6    D'Andre Swift    Georgia    2020
74.3    D'Onta Foreman, Texas    2017
74.5    David Cobb, Minnesota    2015
74.9    Jeremy McNichols, Boise State    2017
77.5    David Johnson, Northern Iowa    2015
78.5    Elijah Hood, North Carolina    2017
79.0    T.J. Logan, North Carolina    2017
80.0    Javorius Allen, USC    2015
81.0    Aaron Jones, UTEP    2017
82.1    Leonard Fournette, LSU    2017
85.0    Duke Johnson, Miami    2015
86.4    Corey Clement, Wisconsin    2017
87.3    Mike Davis, South Carolina    2015
91.3    Ke'Shawn Vaughn    Vanderbilt    2020
91.5    Josh Robinson, Mississippi State    2015
92.7    Karlos Williams, Florida State    2015
94.9    Eno Benjamin    Ariz St    2020
96.6    Tarik Cohen, North Carolina A&T    2017
97.3    Zack Moss    Utah    2020
99.7    James Conner, Pittsburgh    2017
104.1    DeAndre Washington, Texas Tech    2016
108.3    AJ Dillon    BC    2020
109.6    Devine Redding, Indiana    2017
111.8    Jordan Howard, Indiana    2016
115.9    Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State    2017
120.8    Samaje Perine, Oklahoma    2017
123.0    Tyler Ervin, San Jose State    2016
123.2    Jeremy Langford, Michigan State    2015
123.8    Derrick Henry, Alabama    2016
124.7    Tarean Folston, Notre Dame    2017
125.0    Terrence Magee, LSU    2015
128.8    Tra Carson, Texas A&M    2016
129.6    Matthew Dayes, N.C. State    2017
134.4    Zach Zenner, South Dakota State    2015
136.0    Brian Hill, Wyoming    2017
136.0    Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn    2015
136.0    Elijah Mitchell    La-Lafytte    2020
138.5    Keith Marshall, Georgia    2016
140.4    Paul Perkins, UCLA    2016
143.8    Travis Etienne    Clemson    2020
148.2    Wayne Gallman, Clemson    2017
156.3    Dominique Brown, Louisville    2015
157.2    Jamaal Williams, BYU    2017
159.2    J.K. Dobbins    Ohio State    2020
162.5    Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State    2016
168.0    Elijah McGuire, Louisiana-Lafayette    2017
169.7    Aaron Green, TCU    2016
191.7    Todd Gurley, Georgia    2015
229.0    Clyde Edwards-Helaire    LSU    2020
243.7    Christian McCaffrey, Stanford    2017
266.5    De'Veon Smith, Michigan    2017
294.0    Kennedy Brooks    Oklahoma    2020
424.0    Najee Harris    Alabama    2020

434.0    Joseph Yearby, Miami (Fla.)    2017
481.0    Kylin Hill    Miss St    2020
619.0    Malcolm Brown, Texas     2015
856.0    Kareem Hunt, Toledo    2017
infinite    Kelvin Taylor, Florida (no fumbles in college)     2016

I posted last year's fumbles rates here, looking only at rushing attempts.

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17 minutes ago, ZWK said:

RB fumble rates (touches per fumble), using data from cbssports player pages, with the 2015-17 RB classes included for context:

35.4    Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska    2015
39.9    Kenyan Drake, Alabama    2016
43.3    Alex Collins, Arkansas    2016
44.0    Daniel Lasco, California    2016
45.6    C.J. Prosise, Notre Dame    2016
51.1    DeAngelo Henderson, Coastal Carolina    2017
52.2    Marcus Cox, Appalachian State    2017
52.2    Kenny Hilliard, LSU    2015
53.8    Jonathan Taylor    Wisconsin    2020
54.3    Marlon Mack, South Florida    2017
54.4    Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin    2015
56.3    Justin Davis, USC    2017
57.7    Boom Williams, Kentucky    2017
58.0    Chuba Hubbard    Okla St    2020
61.2    Josh Ferguson, Illinois    2016
61.6    Wendell Smallwood, West Virginia    2016
62.2    T.J. Yeldon, Alabama    2015
62.6    Jay Ajayi, Boise State    2015
63.2    Matt Jones, Florida    2015
63.5    Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech    2016
63.8    Tre Madden, USC    2016
63.8    Dalvin Cook, Florida State    2017
65.4    Taquan Mizzell, Virginia    2017
65.6    Cam Akers    FSU    2020
69.8    Curtis Samuel, Ohio State    2017
71.0    Alvin Kamara, Tennessee    2017
71.1    Devontae Booker, Utah    2016
72.0    Jonathan Williams, Arkansas    2016
72.3    Tevin Coleman, Indiana    2015
73.0    Joe Mixon, Oklahoma    2017
73.6    D'Andre Swift    Georgia    2020
74.3    D'Onta Foreman, Texas    2017
74.5    David Cobb, Minnesota    2015
74.9    Jeremy McNichols, Boise State    2017
77.5    David Johnson, Northern Iowa    2015
78.5    Elijah Hood, North Carolina    2017
79.0    T.J. Logan, North Carolina    2017
80.0    Javorius Allen, USC    2015
81.0    Aaron Jones, UTEP    2017
82.1    Leonard Fournette, LSU    2017
85.0    Duke Johnson, Miami    2015
86.4    Corey Clement, Wisconsin    2017
87.3    Mike Davis, South Carolina    2015
91.3    Ke'Shawn Vaughn    Vanderbilt    2020
91.5    Josh Robinson, Mississippi State    2015
92.7    Karlos Williams, Florida State    2015
94.9    Eno Benjamin    Ariz St    2020
96.6    Tarik Cohen, North Carolina A&T    2017
97.3    Zack Moss    Utah    2020
99.7    James Conner, Pittsburgh    2017
104.1    DeAndre Washington, Texas Tech    2016
108.3    AJ Dillon    BC    2020
109.6    Devine Redding, Indiana    2017
111.8    Jordan Howard, Indiana    2016
115.9    Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State    2017
120.8    Samaje Perine, Oklahoma    2017
123.0    Tyler Ervin, San Jose State    2016
123.2    Jeremy Langford, Michigan State    2015
123.8    Derrick Henry, Alabama    2016
124.7    Tarean Folston, Notre Dame    2017
125.0    Terrence Magee, LSU    2015
128.8    Tra Carson, Texas A&M    2016
129.6    Matthew Dayes, N.C. State    2017
134.4    Zach Zenner, South Dakota State    2015
136.0    Brian Hill, Wyoming    2017
136.0    Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn    2015
136.0    Elijah Mitchell    La-Lafytte    2020
138.5    Keith Marshall, Georgia    2016
140.4    Paul Perkins, UCLA    2016
143.8    Travis Etienne    Clemson    2020
148.2    Wayne Gallman, Clemson    2017
156.3    Dominique Brown, Louisville    2015
157.2    Jamaal Williams, BYU    2017
159.2    J.K. Dobbins    Ohio State    2020
162.5    Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State    2016
168.0    Elijah McGuire, Louisiana-Lafayette    2017
169.7    Aaron Green, TCU    2016
191.7    Todd Gurley, Georgia    2015
229.0    Clyde Edwards-Helaire    LSU    2020
243.7    Christian McCaffrey, Stanford    2017
266.5    De'Veon Smith, Michigan    2017
294.0    Kennedy Brooks    Oklahoma    2020
424.0    Najee Harris    Alabama    2020

434.0    Joseph Yearby, Miami (Fla.)    2017
481.0    Kylin Hill    Miss St    2020
619.0    Malcolm Brown, Texas     2015
856.0    Kareem Hunt, Toledo    2017
infinite    Kelvin Taylor, Florida (no fumbles in college)     2016

I posted last year's fumbles rates here, looking only at rushing attempts.

I don't see anyone here who's been a high college level fumbler that's had a similar problem at the pros.  Is this something that's just coached out at the pro level?

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I remember ADP had a fumbling problem in college and it doesnt seem to have stained his NFL image. Granted hes an extreme example, and I think he did fumble more than average, but that's me speaking off the cuff. 

Well Marlon mack and Melvin Gordon both fumbled once every 55 touches in college but mack has fumbled twice in three years and Gordon has fumbled nine times in five years. So ymmv

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Fumbles aren't a huge part of the analysis but they do add some information. There are some NFL RBs who lose playing time because of fumbling issues, and there does seem to be a correlation between college fumbling and NFL fumbling. Alex Collins, Ameer Abdullah, and D'Onta Foreman are the three guys on this list who I remember running into some trouble in the NFL due to fumbles, and two of the three had an awful fumbling rate in college while the other was just slightly worse than average. (There are probably others besides those three, but no other names jump out at me as I skim through the list.)

Also, this list only covers 3 draft classes which have played in the NFL. I don't have comprehensive data going farther back, but we can think of RBs who had fumbling problems in the NFL and see what they did in college. David Wilson comes to mind... he had 7 fumbles on 231 carries partway through his final season at Virginia Tech. That's awful.

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At least this year I can think of Chris Carson as an example of a fumbler, he was part of 2018 class right?  How was he?  

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34 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

At least this year I can think of Chris Carson as an example of a fumbler, he was part of 2018 class right?  How was he?  

It looks like Carson had 2 fumbles on 243 touches in college (one in 2015 and one in 2016), so one per 121.5 touches, which is better than average at avoiding fumbles. So not part of the trend.

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Posted (edited)

Travis Etienne has caught up to Jonathan Taylor thanks to his huge receiving game against Ohio State and is now the top RB by my formula. It's currently looking like both of them will crack the top 10 prospects by my formula since 2013 (the current top 10 is Darrell Henderson, Saquon Barkley, Eddie Lacy, Todd Gurley, Nick Chubb, Melvin Gordon, Christine Michael, Carlos Hyde, Ezekiel Elliott, and Rashaad Penny), although there can be a fair amount of movement as we get information about size, athleticism, and advanced stats like elusiveness.

There is a big tier gap after them (though I wouldn't be surprised to see it narrow as more information comes in). Then J.K. Dobbins and D'Andre Swift lead the pack, followed closely by Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Najee Harris, Kennedy Brooks, Kylin Hill, Chuba Hubbard, Zack Moss, and Elijah Mitchell. Some other guys like AJ Dillon and Cam Akers are behind that pack but within striking distance.

By my standard tier labels, I'd currently put Etienne & Taylor in the Guys I Like A Lot tier, no one in the Guys I Like tier (though I suspect that this tier won't remain empty), the pack of Dobbins through Mitchell in the Guys Who Have a Decent Chance tier, and others like Dillon & Akers in the Guys I Can't Rule Out tier.

Edited by ZWK
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6 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

Well Marlon mack and Melvin Gordon both fumbled once every 55 touches in college but mack has fumbled twice in three years and Gordon has fumbled nine times in five years. So ymmv

Gordon absolutely had a fumbling problem in his rookie year, and he was briefly benched for it. Fortunately for him, he learned how to hold onto the ball, and it hasn't been as much of a problem since his first season.

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Love the Elijah Mitchell mention, he’s a dark horse sleeper for sure.  Love his game.  

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

@ZWK

Is the order in which players appear on your spreadsheets the order they are ranked?

 

Is there a final "number" that can show the differences between one vs another? 

Yes, the WR, RB, TE, and Edge Rusher spreadsheets are sorted by the player's overall rating, which gives the ranking that my formulas say they should be drafted in and incorporates production, size, athleticism, age, etc. I don't have an overall rating formula for QBs; that spreadsheet is just sorted by single-season production.

For WRs, the Overall Rating is in column AE (the next to last column). For TEs, Overall Rating is also in column AE (the last column), although that spreadsheet doesn't exist yet for this draft class. For Edge Rushers, Overall Rating is in column AC (the next to last column), although that spreadsheet doesn't have any size or athleticism numbers yet.

For RBs, the overall rating is not in the spreadsheet. It is the weighted average of 2 numbers that do appear in the spreadsheet, 2019 Overall Rating (column AH) and 2017-2019 Overall Rating (column AI), with 2/3 of the weight going to whichever one of those numbers is bigger. These come just before the last column.

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On 1/3/2020 at 12:51 PM, ZWK said:

Here are the top 24 WRs by career production according to my formula, including guys who aren't entering this draft (though I'm still missing target data on most players so these numbers aren't final):

Tylan Wallace    Okla St
Ja'Marr Chase    LSU
Tyler Johnson    Minnesota
CeeDee Lamb    Oklahoma
Omar Bayless    Ark St
Sage Surratt    Wk Forest
Devin Duvernay    Texas
Jerry Jeudy    Alabama
Laviska Shenault Jr.    Colorado
Brandon Aiyuk    Ariz St
JD Spielman    Nebraska
Isaiah Hodgins    Oregon St
Chatarius Atwell    Louisville
Michael Pittman Jr.    USC
Rashod Bateman    Minnesota
Reggie Roberson, Jr.    SMU
Justyn Ross    Clemson
Denzel Mims    Baylor
Justin Jefferson    LSU
Trishton Jackson    Syracuse
Marquez Stevenson    Houston
DeVonta Smith    Alabama
Tamorrion Terry    FSU
James Proche    SMU

 

And here are the top 25 WRs by overall rating (these will change even more as we get accurate size & athleticism numbers rather than relying on estimated height, weight, and 40 time):

Laviska Shenault Jr.    Colorado
Sage Surratt    Wk Forest
Ja'Marr Chase    LSU
Tyler Johnson    Minnesota
Michael Pittman Jr.    USC
CeeDee Lamb    Oklahoma
Tylan Wallace    Okla St
Omar Bayless    Ark St
Devin Duvernay    Texas
Chase Claypool    Notre Dame
Jerry Jeudy    Alabama
Rashod Bateman    Minnesota
Justyn Ross    Clemson
Brandon Aiyuk    Ariz St
Isaiah Hodgins    Oregon St
Antonio Gandy-Golden    Liberty
Justin Jefferson    LSU
JD Spielman    Nebraska
Denzel Mims    Baylor
Reggie Roberson, Jr.    SMU
Marquez Stevenson    Houston
Chatarius Atwell    Louisville
Bryan Edwards    S Carolina
Trishton Jackson    Syracuse
DeVonta Smith    Alabama

Can you do this for RBs also? Just trying to see if there are any possible Phillip Lindsay's/Jordan Howards in the draft.

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9 minutes ago, Unwrittenlaw said:

Can you do this for RBs also? Just trying to see if there are any possible Phillip Lindsay's/Jordan Howards in the draft.

See this post, or this spreadsheet.

(Although I failed completely at seeing any promise in the last Phillip Lindsay, until the camp hype started.)

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The production numbers in the spreadsheet are in the columns near the end labeled "2019 Production" and "2017-2019 Production".

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I tried a little harder to find target data and succeeded. First I came across this chart from the folks behind cfbstats, and then I discovered that even though rotowire's targets page is behind a paywall, they do share targets on individual player pages. I haven't gathered everyone's data, but I did try to collect data from everyone who rated highly by my formulas, or who is being talked about as a prospect, or whose other stats suggest that they might have high YPT.

Here is (most of) the 10 YPT club:

15.23    CeeDee Lamb    Oklahoma
14.52    Tee Higgins    Clemson
14.18    Ja'Marr Chase    LSU
13.70    DeVonta Smith    Alabama
13.32    Geraud Sanders    Air Force
12.86    Henry Ruggs III    Alabama
12.77    Rashod Bateman    Minnesota
12.55    Reggie Roberson, Jr.    SMU
12.04    Chatarius Atwell    Louisville
11.75    Justin Jefferson    LSU
11.51    JD Spielman    Nebraska
11.49    Dyami Brown    N Carolina
11.48    Omar Bayless    Ark St
11.40    Quez Watkins    USM
11.31    Tamorrion Terry    FSU
11.26    Austin Watkins Jr.    UAB
11.25    Brandon Aiyuk    Ariz St
10.89    Tyler Johnson    Minnesota
10.69    Devin Duvernay    Texas
10.57    Jerry Jeudy    Alabama
10.57    Tyquan Thornton    Baylor
10.55    Isaiah McKoy    Kent State
10.53    Jauan Jennings    Tennessee
10.50    Tylan Wallace    Okla St
10.36    John Hightower    Boise St
10.06    Hunter Bryant    Washington
10.05    Damonte Coxie    Memphis
10.04    Harrison Bryant    FAU

And some other notable names:
9.83    Antonio Gandy-Golden    Liberty
9.81    Sage Surratt    Wk Forest
9.38    Michael Pittman Jr.    USC
9.32    Laviska Shenault Jr.    Colorado
9.22    Isaiah Hodgins    Oregon St
8.87    Collin Johnson    Texas
8.72    Denzel Mims    Baylor
8.71    Chase Claypool    Notre Dame
6.64    Jalen Reagor    TCU

Lamb's ridiculous 15.2 YPT is enough to vault him to the top of the leaderboards for 2019 production, career production, and overall rating. Including their YPT also helps Rashod Bateman, Brandon Aiyuk, and Tee Higgins move up the rankings. The updated top 15 WRs in overall rating are:

CeeDee Lamb    Oklahoma
Laviska Shenault Jr.    Colorado
Ja'Marr Chase    LSU
Sage Surratt    Wk Forest
Rashod Bateman    Minnesota
Michael Pittman Jr.    USC
Tyler Johnson    Minnesota
Brandon Aiyuk    Ariz St
Tylan Wallace    Okla St
Omar Bayless    Ark St
Tee Higgins    Clemson
Devin Duvernay    Texas
Jerry Jeudy    Alabama
Justyn Ross    Clemson
Justin Jefferson    LSU

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On 1/31/2019 at 12:05 AM, ZWK said:

Here's an interesting batch of WRs, going back to the 2006 college season:

Hakeem Butler    Iowa State    2018
Andy Isabella    U Mass    2018
Jordan Lasley    UCLA    2017
Cedrick Wilson    Boise St    2017
Corey Davis    W Mich    2014
Rashard Higgins    CSU    2014
Terrance Williams    Baylor    2012
Justin Blackmon    Okla St    2010
Alshon Jeffery    S Carolina    2010
Demaryius Thomas    Ga Tech    2009
Danario Alexander    Missouri    2009
Dez Bryant    Okla St    2008
Hakeem Nicks    N Carolina    2008
Adarius Bowman    Oklahoma State    2006

Pretty high hit rate, especially after adjusting for knee & alcohol problems.

These are the 14 receiving yardage seasons with elite efficiency and volume, meaning at least:

  • 11 YPT,
  • 40% market share of receiving yards, and
  • 1000 receiving yards

Butler has 12.2 YPT, 42% market share, and 1318 yards. Isabella has 11.6 YPT, 47% market share, and 1698 yards.

Two new players join this list in 2019 (although the list also looks a little less impressive now than it did a year ago).

Omar Bayless    Ark St   2019
Chatarius Atwell    Louisville   2019

Omar Bayless has 11.5 YPT, 41% market share, and 1653 yards. Chatarius Atwell has 12.0 YPT, 42% market share, and 1272 yards.

Brandon Aiyuk and Tyler Johnson also came close. Aiyuk has 11.6 YPT, 39.2% market share (in the games he played), and 1192 yards. Johnson has 10.9 YPT, 40% market share, and 1318 yards. Aiyuk came 40 yards short on market share (assuming you give those extra yards to him and to the Arizona State passing game) while Johnson came just 13 yards short on YPT.

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Looking through some PFF articles, I see that they didn't have D'Andre Swift as a top 2 RB in his conference at the end of the regular season. Their all-SEC RBs were Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Najee Harris. Swift is one of 3 RBs in my top 11 who fail to make his conference's PFF first team.

Travis Etienne - first team ACC
Jonathan Taylor - first team Big Ten
D'Andre Swift - second team SEC
J.K. Dobbins - first team Big Ten
Kennedy Brooks - first team Big 12
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - first team SEC
Najee Harris - first team SEC
Kylin Hill - second team SEC
Chuba Hubbard - first team Big 12
Zack Moss - first team Pac 12
Elijah Mitchell - second team Sun Belt

AJ Dillon (ACC) and Eno Benjamin (Pac 12) round out their Power 5 conference first team RBs.

Some of that is the competitiveness of the SEC (Mitchell's failure to make first team in the Sun Belt is a bigger flag), but if we're talking about the #1 pick in your rookie draft then you'd hope to see him beat out the other guys in his conference. Though on the other hand, a year ago Josh Jacobs didn't make the PFF SEC first team or the second team at RB. And they are higher on Swift elsewhere, e.g. he's the 2nd RB on their Draft Board.

At this stage I think I'm inclined to side with my formula's view that Etienne & Taylor are neck-and-neck for the top 2 RB spots.

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The 5 main QBs to watch look to be Burrow & Tagovailoa, followed by Fromm, Herbert, and Hurts.

Burrow & Tua have elite production, and elite reputation, and elite PFF grades. My sense is that Burrow gets the slight edge based on evaluations of what they've done on the field, and Tua's injury adds to that to make it a pretty easy call.

In the next tier, Herbert has the rep but not the stats, Hurts has the stats but not the rep, and Fromm is in between as good but not elite at both. I think the best way to combine that information into a single ranking puts them in the order I gave: Fromm, then Herbert, then Hurts.

Fromm had very good production in 2017 & 2018 (though nowhere close to the Burrow/Tagovailoa level) but a down year in 2019, though his PFF grade actually went up this year. Over the past few days I've been watching some game videos of several QBs, especially Fromm. On the whole I like what I see. In a lot of games it looks like his receivers & offensive scheme are outmatched, and Fromm is doing what he can to make things happen, but it isn't quite working. There is play after play like that against LSU, where the defense plays tight man coverage and no one can get separation, Fromm puts the ball in a place where the receiver has a chance to make a play on it for a big gain, but the receiver can't come up with it. I've heard him described as a game manager, but it seems like the main game manager-y things about him are not throwing many interceptions and Georgia featuring its running game (which don't really reflect limitations of him as a quarterback); Fromm seems to take plenty of shots down the field (rather than throwing tons of 5 yard passes like Jacob Eason) and he seems plenty willing to throw the ball into tight windows (at least against man coverage). So for me he passes the eye test. I don't put that much weight on my eye test - I'm not primarily a tape guy, I'm probably not that great at being unbiased (and I was inclined to like Fromm before watching him), I don't have a great sense of how to put together the good things that I saw with the bad things (like all the throws he missed in the first half against Georgia Tech). But it does make me feel a little more comfortable about having him as QB3, and a potential NFL first rounder.

Jacob Eason and Jordan Love are the other names that are most often brought up, but they're generally discussed as day 2 options, they fall short of the other 5 in terms of production, and I wasn't that impressed by the game I watched of either of them. So I guess they'd round out the top 7 (and Hurts could potentially fall behind them when I've taken a closer look at him).

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I decided to watch another Fromm video, focusing on every down-the-field pass that he threw. I went with the Missouri 2019 game, which I hadn't watched yet. Here is every 15+ yard pass attempt (except for 1 blatant throwaway), sorted by air yards:

37 yard go route incomplete, overthrown (6:48). Receiver had a step in the middle of the field, Fromm lofted it to him about a foot too far. WR laid out for it and it went off his fingertips.It went off the WR's fingertips.

35 yard go route pass interference, back shoulder or underthrow (9:53). Receiver was tightly covered close to the sideline, Fromm lofted it for a back shoulder play, WR looks like he played it for the PI rather than the catch and succeeded.

33 yard post route complete, called back for illegal formation (11:35). Receiver had a step on the DB and middle of the field was wide open with no safety help, on-target throw hit receiver in stride and he took it for a TD which was called back.

30 yard go route incomplete, underthrown (7:14). Receiver had a step along the sideline, pass was underthrown a bit which turned it into a very difficult contested catch which fell incomplete.

28 yard go route incomplete, catchable (6:18). Receiver was tightly covered along the sideline, Fromm put the ball up high in a great location where the WR had a chance to make a play on it but he didn't come down with it.

27 yard go route complete, in cover 2 hole (5:55). Defense was running something like cover 2 (with the CB sagging some), Fromm put some zip on it to hit the WR in the hole behind the CB and in front of the safety.

24 yard go route complete, sideline fade (0:05). WR ran a great route to leave plenty of space between him and the sideline with the CB trailing to the inside, Fromm made a nice throw which took advantage of that space.

23 yard corner route incomplete, kinda a throwaway (12:23). 3rd & long, receiver wasn't open, Fromm was under pressure and had to get rid of it, pass was uncatchable to the outside.

22 yard go route incomplete, receiver was covered (5:39). Receiver was tightly covered along the sideline and stopped, maybe giving up on his route. Throw was high and to the sideline ahead of him, if the WR had kept going it might have been similar to the throw on the 28 yard go at 6:18 or the 21 yard go at 10:17.

21 yard go route complete, go up & get it (10:17). Receiver was tightly covered along the sideline, Fromm put the ball up high in a great location where the WR had a chance to make a play on it and he did. Very similar to the 28 yard go at 6:18.

19 yard out/crossing route incomplete, dropped (1:02). Receiver on crossing route had a couple steps on defender with no safety help, Fromm threw it with nice touch towards sideline (so by that point the route was like an out), WR dropped it.

18 yard in route complete, hole in zone (0:36). Receiver ran a deep in, Fromm hit him in the lane between the LBs.

16 yard go route incomplete, scramble drill (3:05). Receiver tightly covered on a comeback broke deep when the play was extended, Fromm's throw with pressure approaching was high & outside, almost a throwaway.

15 yard out route complete, touch pass (2:38). Receiver ran an out route, had a step with no safety help, Fromm threw a nice touch pass very similar to the 19 yard out at 1:02 and the WR caught this one.

15 yard in route complete (9:22). Man coverage, Fromm threw it with good velocity & location where the WR could go down and get it away from the defender. This barely counts as a down-the-field throw.

The total count is 15 pass attempts, 7/14 complete for 153 air yards with 1 drop, plus 1 pass interference.

Pretty good from Fromm on these. Relied more on touch than power. He did put some zip on the 27 yard go in the cover 2 hole (5:55), and to a lesser extent on the sideline throws at 10:17 (21 yard go) and 6:18 (28 yard go) and the deep in at 0:36 (18 yard in). He made some of these touch passes look routine, with on-target throws on the sideline fade (24 yard go at 0:05) and the two out routes (19 yard out/crossing at 1:02 and 15 yard out at 2:38). A couple of the throws were a bit off, such that the receiver was able to get a hand on the ball but had little chance of making the catch - the overthrown 37 yard go at 6:48 and the underthrown 30 yard go at 7:14.

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Here's an interesting WR comparison.

Player A
40/746/7 receiving on 58 targets in 12 games
69% catch rate, 18.7 YPR, 12.9 YPT, 62.2 YPG
team threw 391 passes for 275/4139/45 in those 12 games
18% market share of rec yds, 16% market share of rec TD

Player B
42/828/7 receiving on 65 targets in 13 games
62% catch rate, 19.7 YPR, 12.7 YPT, 63.7 YPG
team threw 493 passes for 341/4330/39 in those 13 games
19% market share of rec yds, 18% market share of rec TD

Both players were juniors on elite teams who had a ton of receiving talent, and decided to enter the draft despite their limited production.

One of them had 2 first round WRs as teammates who combined for 121/1780/15 receiving (with most of that coming from one of them).

The other... we'll see... 2 of his WR teammates are likely early round picks and combined for 145/2419/24 receiving.

Player A is Henry Ruggs III. Player B is Martavis Bryant. Different builds, similar situations, usage, and production.

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Here's what that WR comparison helps highlight, IMO.

My WR formula hates receivers who don't have much volume, and Henry Ruggs is no exception. My formula current ranks him 43rd in 2019 production, 50th in career production, and 41st in overall rating (even though he's projected to run a blazing 4.36 forty).

But he has a lot of things going for him, compared to other guys who my formula is down on.

Great efficiency numbers
Elite teammates at WR who do a lot to explain why he didn't get the ball more
Great reputation, so he is leaving school early rather than having a chance to be the guy next year in his college receiving corps
Great athleticism

So I'll have a much easier time liking him, compared to other WRs that my formula is down on.

This package is still not as promising as actually putting up big numbers in college, so I'm unlikely to lead the Ruggs hype train, but I could see myself getting on board (moreso than with most other WRs who didn't do so well by my formulas, like Calvin Ridley or Laquon Treadwell).

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When the Hill comparisons heats up, I can see him moving up.

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3 hours ago, metoo said:

When the Hill comparisons heats up, I can see him moving up.

I'm okay with someone else taking that chance and settling for Higgins/Shenault/Reagor after

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On 1/6/2020 at 8:02 PM, ZWK said:

Lamb's ridiculous 15.2 YPT is enough to vault him to the top of the leaderboards for 2019 production, career production, and overall rating. Including their YPT also helps Rashod Bateman, Brandon Aiyuk, and Tee Higgins move up the rankings. The updated top 15 WRs in overall rating are:

CeeDee Lamb    Oklahoma
Laviska Shenault Jr.    Colorado
Ja'Marr Chase    LSU
Sage Surratt    Wk Forest
Rashod Bateman    Minnesota
Michael Pittman Jr.    USC
Tyler Johnson    Minnesota
Brandon Aiyuk    Ariz St
Tylan Wallace    Okla St
Omar Bayless    Ark St
Tee Higgins    Clemson
Devin Duvernay    Texas
Jerry Jeudy    Alabama
Justyn Ross    Clemson
Justin Jefferson    LSU

More good news for Tee Higgins. I had the wrong height for him in my spreadsheet (due to a data entry error). At 6'2.6" and 215 lbs., he should be first on this list. Which mainly shows how tightly packed these top WRs are in my formula, and how much things could change as we get more accurate size & athleticism numbers.

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On 1/3/2020 at 3:55 PM, Dr. Dan said:

I remember ADP had a fumbling problem in college and it doesnt seem to have stained his NFL image. Granted hes an extreme example, and I think he did fumble more than average, but that's me speaking off the cuff. 

He has had a lot of fumbles in the pros, but he is Adrian Peterson so they let it slide. The Bears used to strip him all the time. When he wasn't running for 200 and 2 on them.

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The top 20 most productive receiving seasons on record since 2005, by my numbers:

Justin Blackmon    2010    
Leonte Carroo    2015    *
Ja'Marr Chase    2019
Dede Westbrook    2016    
Dez Bryant    2008    
Rashard Higgins    2014    
CeeDee Lamb    2019
Marqise Lee    2012    
Amba Etta-Tawo    2016    
Stedman Bailey    2012    
Jordan Lasley    2017    *
Ryan Broyles    2011    *
Terrance Williams    2012    
DeVante Parker    2014    *
Danario Alexander    2009    
Demaryius Thomas    2009    
Brandin Cooks    2013    
Golden Tate    2009    
Amari Cooper    2014    
Hakeem Butler    2018    

* pro-rated

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What if you don't pro-rate?  Lasley is a bust, so is Carroo, Parker is a productive NFL guy but somewhat of a fantasy disappointment so far (could turn it around now?).  I don't even remember Broyles but that was before I was heavily into fantasy.  

Who are the other players creeping into the discussion without the pro-rated seasons?

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3 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

What if you don't pro-rate?  Lasley is a bust, so is Carroo, Parker is a productive NFL guy but somewhat of a fantasy disappointment so far (could turn it around now?).  I don't even remember Broyles but that was before I was heavily into fantasy.  

Who are the other players creeping into the discussion without the pro-rated seasons?

broyles was damaged goods...and part of the boomer system....injuries didnt stop the lions

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5 hours ago, Zyphros said:

What if you don't pro-rate?  Lasley is a bust, so is Carroo, Parker is a productive NFL guy but somewhat of a fantasy disappointment so far (could turn it around now?).  I don't even remember Broyles but that was before I was heavily into fantasy.  

Who are the other players creeping into the discussion without the pro-rated seasons?

Yeah, I included the asterisks so that you could skip over those players if you want. My list still gets you the top 15 without pro-rating, which is 1 per year on average.

There's no natural place to stop; the list just keeps going. My top rated tab has 130 players (going by overall rating as a prospect rather than a single season of production, but there would be a lot of overlap between the lists), and outside the top 100 there are still names coming up like Eric Decker, TY Hilton, John Ross, and Stefon Diggs.

Here are seasons 21-50 in production, continuing to pro-rate everyone (* for guys who played 10 games or fewer).

Andy Isabella    2018    
Mike Evans    2013    
Will Fuller    2015    
Hakeem Nicks    2008    
Emanuel Hall    2018    *
Adarius Bowman    2006    
D'Juan Woods    2005    
James Washington    2017    
Mike Hass    2005    
Austin Hill    2012    
Alshon Jeffery    2010    
Sidney Rice    2005    
Robert Meachem    2006    
Tylan Wallace    2019    *
Jordy Nelson    2007    
Corey Coleman    2014    *
Santonio Holmes    2005    
Omar Bayless    2019    
DeAndre Hopkins    2012    
A.J. Brown    2017    
Jermaine Kearse    2010    
Kendall Wright    2011    
Michael Crabtree    2007    
T.Y. Hilton    2008    
Josh Doctson    2015    
Tavon Austin    2012    
Brandon Aiyuk    2019    
Marquess Wilson    2011    
Devin Smith    2014    
A.J. Jenkins    2011   

Edited by ZWK

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14 hours ago, ZWK said:

The top 20 most productive receiving seasons on record since 2005, by my numbers:

Justin Blackmon    2010    
Leonte Carroo    2015    *
Ja'Marr Chase    2019
Dede Westbrook    2016    
Dez Bryant    2008    
Rashard Higgins    2014    
CeeDee Lamb    2019
Marqise Lee    2012    
Amba Etta-Tawo    2016    
Stedman Bailey    2012    
Jordan Lasley    2017    *
Ryan Broyles    2011    *
Terrance Williams    2012    
DeVante Parker    2014    *
Danario Alexander    2009    
Demaryius Thomas    2009    
Brandin Cooks    2013    
Golden Tate    2009    
Amari Cooper    2014    
Hakeem Butler    2018    

* pro-rated

This tells me that you should stop keeping track of this statistic.  More misses than hits on this list.

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10 hours ago, tangfoot said:

This tells me that you should stop keeping track of this statistic.  More misses than hits on this list.

In favor of what? This is just looking at college stats (just one season of college stats), not trying to be a complete evaluation. You won't do very well if you just pick all the guys who had a big season in college, but you also won't do as well if you completely ignore that info.

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Looking at RB receiving, the 3 guys with the most receiving yards this year are Memphis freshman Kenny Gainwell, Washington sophomore Max Borghi, and UCLA junior Demetric Felton. If you look at per game numbers, Nebraska freshman Wan'Dale Robinson is also up there. None of those 4 are entering this year's draft, so I won't take a closer look at them at this point. Given the importance of RB receiving in the NFL these days, they're guys to keep an eye on.

One person who is entering this year's draft is Kentucky junior Lynn Bowden Jr. He had 67/745/5 receiving as a WR in 2018, then got moved to wildcat QB this year where he had 185/1468/13 rushing. At 6'0" 199 lbs. he is undersized even for a receiving back, so probably we should be evaluating him primarily as a WR. That's tricky to do based on stats since he mostly didn't play this year (though he did have 27/330/1 receiving over the first 4 weeks which is pretty good). So I guess I'll put more weight on scouting reports and such with him. Success as a runner is a good sign.

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4 hours ago, ZWK said:

In favor of what? This is just looking at college stats (just one season of college stats), not trying to be a complete evaluation. You won't do very well if you just pick all the guys who had a big season in college, but you also won't do as well if you completely ignore that info.

It looks like a waste of time to keep track of this, based on the overabundance of complete failures at the NFL level.  It seems completely irrelevant to predicting future success.

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5 hours ago, ZWK said:

Looking at RB receiving, the 3 guys with the most receiving yards this year are Memphis freshman Kenny Gainwell, Washington sophomore Max Borghi, and UCLA junior Demetric Felton. If you look at per game numbers, Nebraska freshman Wan'Dale Robinson is also up there. None of those 4 are entering this year's draft, so I won't take a closer look at them at this point. Given the importance of RB receiving in the NFL these days, they're guys to keep an eye on.

One person who is entering this year's draft is Kentucky junior Lynn Bowden Jr. He had 67/745/5 receiving as a WR in 2018, then got moved to wildcat QB this year where he had 185/1468/13 rushing. At 6'0" 199 lbs. he is undersized even for a receiving back, so probably we should be evaluating him primarily as a WR. That's tricky to do based on stats since he mostly didn't play this year (though he did have 27/330/1 receiving over the first 4 weeks which is pretty good). So I guess I'll put more weight on scouting reports and such with him. Success as a runner is a good sign.

I liked Felton enough as a dark horse this year anyways.  Probably was an UDFA type of talent but he is a very nice pass catcher.  
 

For Bowden, he’s basically a very poor mans Lamar Jackson.  Looks to be really athletic though.  Might be the next guy in the Terrell Pryor, Logan Thomas type of mold of not a QB so transition to something else.  It’ll take a good coach to get something out of him, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.  High upside long play but I don’t expect him to be valuable.  

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Here are some statistical comparisons between this year's receiving prospects and past first round receivers. For each player I picked his best season according to my overall production rating (the year shown is the year of that college season). The last of these lists is that overall production rating which tries to combine all of these stats (and some others) into a single rating, so if you just want to look at one list that's the one I'd recommend (although unlike the others it's on an arbitrary scale). Stats are pro-rated for missed games, with an * for seasons with 10 or fewer games.

Yards per Target
15.23    CeeDee Lamb    Oklahoma    2019    
14.08    Mike Evans    Texas A&M    2013    
14.00    Demaryius Thomas    Ga Tech    2009    
13.56    Jerry Jeudy    Alabama    2018    
12.97    Tee Higgins    Clemson    2019    

12.91    Phillip Dorsett    Miami (Fl)    2014    
12.86    Henry Ruggs III    Alabama    2019    
12.80    Odell Beckham Jr.    LSU    2013    
12.76    DeVante Parker    Louisville    2014    *
12.44    Corey Davis    W Mich    2014    
12.43    Marquise Brown    Oklahoma    2018    
12.04    Justin Blackmon    Okla St    2010    
11.93    Vernon Davis    Maryland    2005    
11.81    Ted Ginn Jr.    Ohio State    2005    
11.75    Dez Bryant    Okla St    2008    
11.68    Darnell Mooney    Tulane    2018    
11.64    Hakeem Nicks    N Carolina    2008    
11.62    Kelvin Benjamin    FSU    2013    
11.57    Will Fuller    Notre Dame    2015    
11.57    Brandon Aiyuk    Ariz St    2019    
11.53    Kendall Wright    Baylor    2011    
11.51    JD Spielman    Nebraska    2019    
11.49    Justin Jefferson    LSU    2019    

11.48    Mike Williams    Clemson    2014    
11.48    Omar Bayless    Ark St    2019    
11.44    Josh Doctson    TCU    2015    
11.40    Quez Watkins    USM    2019    
11.39    Robert Meachem    Tennessee    2006    
11.36    Santonio Holmes    Ohio State    2005    
11.18    Sammy Watkins    Clemson    2013    
11.00    Percy Harvin    Florida    2007    
10.98    DeAndre Hopkins    Clemson    2012    
10.77    Amari Cooper    Alabama    2014    
10.72    Michael Crabtree    Texas Tech    2007    
10.69    Devin Duvernay    Texas    2019    
10.53    Jauan Jennings    Tennessee    2019    
10.51    Julio Jones    Alabama    2010    
10.51    Breshad Perriman    UCF    2014    
10.45    Craig Davis    LSU    2006    
10.30    Brandin Cooks    Oregon St    2013    
10.10    A.J. Green    Georgia    2010    *
10.10    Dwayne Bowe    LSU    2006    
10.08    Kenny Britt    Rutgers    2008    
9.96    Tyler Johnson    Minnesota    2017    *
9.88    Corey Coleman    Baylor    2015    
9.83    Antonio Gandy-Golden    Liberty    2019    
9.78    Nelson Agholor    USC    2014    
9.77    Calvin Ridley    Alabama    2017  
9.62    KJ Hamler    Penn State    2019
9.59    Quintez Cephus    Wisconsin    2019
9.54    N'Keal Harry    Ariz St    2018    
9.53    Anthony Gonzalez    Ohio State    2006    
9.43    Jeremy Maclin    Missouri    2008    
9.39    Van Jefferson    Florida    2019    
9.38    Michael Pittman Jr.    USC    2019    
9.38    Trishton Jackson    Syracuse    2019    
9.37    Denzel Mims    Baylor    2017    
9.36    Laviska Shenault Jr.    Colorado    2018    *
9.33    Gabriel Davis    UCF    2019    
9.30    K.J. Hill    Ohio State    2018    

9.26    Cordarrelle Patterson    Tennessee    2012    
9.22    Isaiah Hodgins    Oregon St    2019    
9.15    Kevin White    WVU    2014    
9.06    Tavon Austin    WVU    2012    
9.04    Collin Johnson    Texas    2018    
8.98    Lynn Bowden, Jr.    Kentucky    2018

8.91    John Ross    Washington    2016    
8.86    A.J. Jenkins    Illinois    2011    
8.74    Jon Baldwin    Pittsburgh    2010    
8.71    Calvin Johnson    Georgia Tech    2006    
8.71    Chase Claypool    Notre Dame    2019    
8.70    Cody White    Mich St    2019
8.62    Donovan Peoples-Jones    Michigan    2018

8.39    Laquon Treadwell    Miss    2015    
8.21    James Proche    SMU    2018    
8.10    Jalen Reagor    TCU    2018    

8.00    Darrius Heyward-Bey    Maryland    2008    
7.97    Michael Floyd    Notre Dame    2011    
7.95    DJ Moore    Maryland    2017    
7.63    Kalija Lipscomb    Vanderbilt    2018
7.22    Bryan Edwards    S Carolina    2019    *

Yards per Team Attempt
6.87    Demaryius Thomas    Ga Tech    2009    
4.54    Dez Bryant    Okla St    2008    
4.33    DeVante Parker    Louisville    2014    *
4.10    Corey Davis    W Mich    2014    
3.92    Kendall Wright    Baylor    2011    
3.83    Amari Cooper    Alabama    2014    
3.82    Hakeem Nicks    N Carolina    2008    
3.80    Corey Coleman    Baylor    2015    
3.75    CeeDee Lamb    Oklahoma    2019    
3.63    Justin Blackmon    Okla St    2010    
3.58    Kenny Britt    Rutgers    2008    
3.53    Odell Beckham Jr.    LSU    2013    
3.52    Omar Bayless    Ark St    2019    
3.52    A.J. Jenkins    Illinois    2011    
3.49    Tyler Johnson    Minnesota    2017    *
3.41    A.J. Green    Georgia    2010    *
3.37    Brandon Aiyuk    Ariz St    2019    
3.31    Darnell Mooney    Tulane    2018    

3.29    Marquise Brown    Oklahoma    2018    
3.28    Will Fuller    Notre Dame    2015    
3.25    Calvin Johnson    Georgia Tech    2006    
3.25    DJ Moore    Maryland    2017    
3.24    Santonio Holmes    Ohio State    2005    
3.21    Laviska Shenault Jr.    Colorado    2018    *
3.13    Robert Meachem    Tennessee    2006    
3.13    Julio Jones    Alabama    2010    
3.09    Quez Watkins    USM    2019    
3.09    Antonio Gandy-Golden    Liberty    2019    

3.03    Josh Doctson    TCU    2015    
3.00    Jerry Jeudy    Alabama    2018    
2.98    Sammy Watkins    Clemson    2013    
2.97    N'Keal Harry    Ariz St    2018    
2.96    DeAndre Hopkins    Clemson    2012    
2.95    Devin Duvernay    Texas    2019    
2.94    Gabriel Davis    UCF    2019    

2.91    Calvin Ridley    Alabama    2017    
2.85    Mike Evans    Texas A&M    2013    
2.85    Nelson Agholor    USC    2014    
2.82    John Ross    Washington    2016    
2.81    Percy Harvin    Florida    2007    
2.79    Isaiah Hodgins    Oregon St    2019    
2.78    JD Spielman    Nebraska    2019    

2.77    Brandin Cooks    Oregon St    2013    
2.72    Justin Jefferson    LSU    2019    
2.71    Kevin White    WVU    2014    
2.69    Jauan Jennings    Tennessee    2019    
2.69    Dwayne Bowe    LSU    2006    
2.66    Ted Ginn Jr.    Ohio State    2005    
2.59    Jalen Reagor    TCU    2018    
2.57    Michael Crabtree    Texas Tech    2007   
2.57    Quintez Cephus    Wisconsin    2019
2.56    James Proche    SMU    2018    

2.52    Lynn Bowden, Jr.    Kentucky    2018
2.51    Breshad Perriman    UCF    2014    
2.51    Trishton Jackson    Syracuse    2019    
2.49    Chase Claypool    Notre Dame    2019    

2.48    Vernon Davis    Maryland    2005    
2.48    Michael Pittman Jr.    USC    2019    
2.46    Craig Davis    LSU    2006   
2.45    KJ Hamler    Penn State    2019
2.42    Tavon Austin    WVU    2012    
2.42    Michael Floyd    Notre Dame    2011    
2.36    Laquon Treadwell    Miss    2015    
2.35    Denzel Mims    Baylor    2017    
2.29    Tee Higgins    Clemson    2019    

2.29    Kelvin Benjamin    FSU    2013    
2.28    Mike Williams    Clemson    2014    
2.28    Jon Baldwin    Pittsburgh    2010    
2.23    Phillip Dorsett    Miami (Fl)    2014    
2.23    Jeremy Maclin    Missouri    2008    
2.23    Collin Johnson    Texas    2018    
2.20    Kalija Lipscomb    Vanderbilt    2018

2.15    Anthony Gonzalez    Ohio State    2006    
2.10    Bryan Edwards    S Carolina    2019    *
1.99    Henry Ruggs III    Alabama    2019    
1.99    Cody White    Mich St    2019
1.76    Donovan Peoples-Jones    Michigan    2018

1.63    Cordarrelle Patterson    Tennessee    2012    
1.63    Darrius Heyward-Bey    Maryland    2008    
1.54    K.J. Hill    Ohio State    2018    
1.41    Van Jefferson    Florida    2019    

25+ Yard Receptions per Game
2.00    DeVante Parker    Louisville    2014    *
1.85    Mike Evans    Texas A&M    2013    
1.69    CeeDee Lamb    Oklahoma    2019    
1.69    Brandin Cooks    Oregon St    2013    
1.67    Corey Coleman    Baylor    2015    
1.58    Justin Blackmon    Okla St    2010    
1.55    Josh Doctson    TCU    2015    
1.54    Omar Bayless    Ark St    2019    
1.54    DeAndre Hopkins    Clemson    2012    
1.46    Kendall Wright    Baylor    2011    
1.45    Quez Watkins    USM    2019    
1.42    Corey Davis    W Mich    2014    
1.42    Gabriel Davis    UCF    2019    
1.38    Dez Bryant    Okla St    2008    
1.38    Odell Beckham Jr.    LSU    2013    
1.31    Will Fuller    Notre Dame    2015    
1.31    Sammy Watkins    Clemson    2013    
1.29    Marquise Brown    Oklahoma    2018    
1.25    Brandon Aiyuk    Ariz St    2019    
1.17    N'Keal Harry    Ariz St    2018    
1.15    Hakeem Nicks    N Carolina    2008    
1.15    Antonio Gandy-Golden    Liberty    2019    
1.15    Kevin White    WVU    2014    
1.15    Michael Pittman Jr.    USC    2019    
1.15    Mike Williams    Clemson    2014    
1.15    Collin Johnson    Texas    2018    
1.08    A.J. Jenkins    Illinois    2011    
1.08    Devin Duvernay    Texas    2019    
1.08    JD Spielman    Nebraska    2019    
1.08    Trishton Jackson    Syracuse    2019    
1.08    Denzel Mims    Baylor    2017    

1.08    Phillip Dorsett    Miami (Fl)    2014    
1.07    Amari Cooper    Alabama    2014    
1.07    Jerry Jeudy    Alabama    2018    
1.00    Demaryius Thomas    Ga Tech    2009    
1.00    A.J. Green    Georgia    2010    *
1.00    Laviska Shenault Jr.    Colorado    2018    *
1.00    James Proche    SMU    2018    

1.00    Breshad Perriman    UCF    2014    
1.00    Chase Claypool    Notre Dame    2019    
1.00    Tavon Austin    WVU    2012    
1.00    Tee Higgins    Clemson    2019    
1.00    Jeremy Maclin    Missouri    2008    
0.93    Justin Jefferson    LSU    2019    
0.93    Kelvin Benjamin    FSU    2013    
0.92    Kenny Britt    Rutgers    2008    
0.92    DJ Moore    Maryland    2017    
0.92    Julio Jones    Alabama    2010    
0.92    Laquon Treadwell    Miss    2015    
0.92    Henry Ruggs III    Alabama    2019    
0.85    Jauan Jennings    Tennessee    2019    
0.85    Jalen Reagor    TCU    2018   
0.85    KJ Hamler    Penn State    2019

0.85    Michael Floyd    Notre Dame    2011    
0.79    Calvin Ridley    Alabama    2017    
0.79    John Ross    Washington    2016   
0.79    Quintez Cephus    Wisconsin    2019
0.77    Darnell Mooney    Tulane    2018    
0.77    Jon Baldwin    Pittsburgh    2010    
0.75    Isaiah Hodgins    Oregon St    2019    
0.70    Tyler Johnson    Minnesota    2017    *
0.69    Nelson Agholor    USC    2014    
0.67    Cordarrelle Patterson    Tennessee    2012    
0.62    Lynn Bowden, Jr.    Kentucky    2018
0.60    Bryan Edwards    S Carolina    2019    *

0.58    Darrius Heyward-Bey    Maryland    2008    
0.57    K.J. Hill    Ohio State    2018    
0.46    Cody White    Mich St    2019
0.46    Donovan Peoples-Jones    Michigan    2018
0.31    Van Jefferson    Florida    2019  
 
0.31    Kalija Lipscomb    Vanderbilt    2018
(missing some guys in this list since I don't have this stat for the 2005-07 seasons)

Market Share of Passing TDs
93%    Tyler Johnson    Minnesota    2017    *
76%    Dez Bryant    Okla St    2008
73%    Demaryius Thomas    Ga Tech    2009
63%    Corey Davis    W Mich    2014
61%    Santonio Holmes    Ohio State    2005
60%    Calvin Johnson    Georgia Tech    2006
60%    Justin Blackmon    Okla St    2010
60%    Bryan Edwards    S Carolina    2019    *
57%    Hakeem Nicks    N Carolina    2008
57%    A.J. Jenkins    Illinois    2011
56%    Will Fuller    Notre Dame    2015
53%    DJ Moore    Maryland    2017
53%    Darnell Mooney    Tulane    2018
52%    A.J. Green    Georgia    2010    *
52%    DeVante Parker    Louisville    2014    *
50%    Jalen Reagor    TCU    2018
50%    Amari Cooper    Alabama    2014
49%    Corey Coleman    Baylor    2015
49%    N'Keal Harry    Ariz St    2018
48%    Robert Meachem    Tennessee    2006
48%    Trishton Jackson    Syracuse    2019
46%    Omar Bayless    Ark St    2019

45%    DeAndre Hopkins    Clemson    2012
43%    Michael Crabtree    Texas Tech    2007
43%    James Proche    SMU    2018
43%    Isaiah Hodgins    Oregon St    2019

43%    Michael Floyd    Notre Dame    2011
42%    Laviska Shenault Jr.    Colorado    2018    *
42%    Brandin Cooks    Oregon St    2013
42%    Josh Doctson    TCU    2015
42%    Jauan Jennings    Tennessee    2019
42%    CeeDee Lamb    Oklahoma    2019
42%    JD Spielman    Nebraska    2019
41%    Brandon Aiyuk    Ariz St    2019

40%    Dwayne Bowe    LSU    2006
40%    Vernon Davis    Maryland    2005
39%    Breshad Perriman    UCF    2014
39%    Quintez Cephus    Wisconsin    2019
38%    Phillip Dorsett    Miami (Fl)    2014
38%    Kevin White    WVU    2014
38%    Kalija Lipscomb    Vanderbilt    2018
36%    John Ross    Washington    2016
36%    Gabriel Davis    UCF    2019
36%    Lynn Bowden, Jr.    Kentucky    2018

36%    Kelvin Benjamin    FSU    2013
36%    Darrius Heyward-Bey    Maryland    2008
35%    Denzel Mims    Baylor    2017
35%    Chase Claypool    Notre Dame    2019

35%    Kendall Wright    Baylor    2011
35%    Quez Watkins    USM    2019
35%    Odell Beckham Jr.    LSU    2013
35%    Cody White    Mich St    2019
34%    Antonio Gandy-Golden    Liberty    2019
33%    Tee Higgins    Clemson    2019

33%    Donovan Peoples-Jones    Michigan    2018
32%    Jeremy Maclin    Missouri    2008
32%    KJ Hamler    Penn State    2019
31%    Michael Pittman Jr.    USC    2019
31%    Nelson Agholor    USC    2014
31%    Sammy Watkins    Clemson    2013
31%    Laquon Treadwell    Miss    2015
31%    Jon Baldwin    Pittsburgh    2010
30%    Justin Jefferson    LSU    2019
30%    Mike Evans    Texas A&M    2013
29%    Kenny Britt    Rutgers    2008
29%    Julio Jones    Alabama    2010
28%    Devin Duvernay    Texas    2019
27%    Tavon Austin    WVU    2012
27%    Jerry Jeudy    Alabama    2018
27%    Collin Johnson    Texas    2018
26%    Anthony Gonzalez    Ohio State    2006
26%    Mike Williams    Clemson    2014
23%    Marquise Brown    Oklahoma    2018
22%    Ted Ginn Jr.    Ohio State    2005
18%    Van Jefferson    Florida    2019
18%    Calvin Ridley    Alabama    2017
15%    Henry Ruggs III    Alabama    2019
14%    Cordarrelle Patterson    Tennessee    2012
14%    Craig Davis    LSU    2006
14%    Percy Harvin    Florida    2007
12%    K.J. Hill    Ohio State    2018

Overall Production Rating
17.21    Justin Blackmon    Okla St    2010    
15.13    DeVante Parker    Louisville    2014    *
14.12    Dez Bryant    Okla St    2008    
13.91    CeeDee Lamb    Oklahoma    2019    
12.29    Demaryius Thomas    Ga Tech    2009    
12.23    Brandin Cooks    Oregon St    2013    
11.37    Amari Cooper    Alabama    2014    
11.08    Mike Evans    Texas A&M    2013    
11.06    Will Fuller    Notre Dame    2015    
10.88    Hakeem Nicks    N Carolina    2008    
10.06    Robert Meachem    Tennessee    2006    
9.51    Santonio Holmes    Ohio State    2005    
9.48    Omar Bayless    Ark St    2019    
9.44    DeAndre Hopkins    Clemson    2012    
9.18    Kendall Wright    Baylor    2011    
8.96    Josh Doctson    TCU    2015    
8.96    Tavon Austin    WVU    2012    
8.87    Brandon Aiyuk    Ariz St    2019    
8.61    Michael Crabtree    Texas Tech    2007    
8.40    A.J. Jenkins    Illinois    2011    
8.29    Corey Davis    W Mich    2014    
8.23    Laviska Shenault Jr.    Colorado    2018    *
8.21    Tyler Johnson    Minnesota    2017    *
7.88    Jerry Jeudy    Alabama    2018    

7.65    A.J. Green    Georgia    2010    *
7.63    Corey Coleman    Baylor    2015    
7.54    Vernon Davis    Maryland    2005    
7.48    Sammy Watkins    Clemson    2013    
7.16    Phillip Dorsett    Miami (Fl)    2014    
6.96    Devin Duvernay    Texas    2019    
6.93    Calvin Johnson    Georgia Tech    2006    
6.87    Tee Higgins    Clemson    2019    
6.63    Marquise Brown    Oklahoma    2018    
6.40    DJ Moore    Maryland    2017    
6.40    JD Spielman    Nebraska    2019    
6.07    N'Keal Harry    Ariz St    2018    
6.04    Percy Harvin    Florida    2007    
5.85    Darnell Mooney    Tulane    2018    
5.75    Quez Watkins    USM    2019    

5.62    Ted Ginn Jr.    Ohio State    2005    
5.45    Justin Jefferson    LSU    2019    
5.45    Odell Beckham Jr.    LSU    2013    
5.31    Trishton Jackson    Syracuse    2019    
5.27    Kevin White    WVU    2014    
5.12    Jeremy Maclin    Missouri    2008    
4.98    Jalen Reagor    TCU    2018    
4.33    Nelson Agholor    USC    2014    
4.29    Dwayne Bowe    LSU    2006    
4.28    Isaiah Hodgins    Oregon St    2019    
4.21    Denzel Mims    Baylor    2017    
4.12    Kenny Britt    Rutgers    2008    
4.10    Michael Pittman Jr.    USC    2019    
3.97    Jauan Jennings    Tennessee    2019    

3.87    Breshad Perriman    UCF    2014    
3.60    John Ross    Washington    2016    
3.59    Julio Jones    Alabama    2010    
3.23    James Proche    SMU    2018    
2.73    Mike Williams    Clemson    2014    
2.55    Bryan Edwards    S Carolina    2019    *
2.48    Gabriel Davis    UCF    2019    
2.40    Antonio Gandy-Golden    Liberty    2019    

2.22    Kelvin Benjamin    FSU    2013   
2.15    KJ Hamler    Penn State    2019
2.08    Chase Claypool    Notre Dame    2019   
2.06    Quintez Cephus    Wisconsin    2019

2.04    Jon Baldwin    Pittsburgh    2010    
1.72    Michael Floyd    Notre Dame    2011    
1.53    Collin Johnson    Texas    2018    
1.51    Lynn Bowden, Jr.    Kentucky    2018
1.13    Henry Ruggs III    Alabama    2019    

1.04    Calvin Ridley    Alabama    2017    
0.99    Craig Davis    LSU    2006    
0.71    Cordarrelle Patterson    Tennessee    2012    
0.42    Anthony Gonzalez    Ohio State    2006    
-0.72    Laquon Treadwell    Miss    2015    
-1.04    Cody White    Mich St    2019
-2.95    Donovan Peoples-Jones    Michigan    2018

-3.01    Darrius Heyward-Bey    Maryland    2008    
-3.61    Kalija Lipscomb    Vanderbilt    2018
-5.05    Van Jefferson    Florida    2019    
-5.08    K.J. Hill    Ohio State    2018   

Edited by ZWK
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Here are RB size ratings, using the formula from here. The ones based on estimated size are obviously subject to change once we get actual measurements.

1.9    AJ Dillon    est    (72.0", 250, 33.9 BMI)
1.1    Zack Moss    est    (69.0", 222, 32.8 BMI)
1.1    Benny LeMay    Shrine Game    (68.4", 222, 33.4 BMI)
1.1    Tony Jones, Jr.    Shrine Game    (70.6", 222, 31.3 BMI)
1.1    James Robinson    Shrine Game    (69.0", 222, 32.8 BMI)
1.1    Tavian Feaster    Shrine Game    (71.0", 221, 30.8 BMI)
1.0    Jonathan Taylor    est    (71.0", 219, 30.5 BMI)
0.9    J.K. Dobbins    est    (69.0", 217, 32.0 BMI)
0.9    Antonio Gibson    Senior Bowl    (72.5", 223, 29.8 BMI)
0.9    D'Andre Swift    est    (69.0", 215, 31.7 BMI)
0.8    Joshua Kelley    Senior Bowl    (70.6", 214, 30.2 BMI)
0.7    Rico Dowdle    Shrine Game    (71.4", 214, 29.5 BMI)
0.7    Cam Akers    est    (70.0", 212, 30.4 BMI)
0.6    Lamical Perine    Senior Bowl    (70.8", 211, 29.6 BMI)
0.5    Clyde Edwards-Helaire    est    (68.0", 209, 31.8 BMI)
0.1    Ke'Shawn Vaughn    Senior Bowl    (69.5", 205, 29.8 BMI)
0.0    JaMycal Hasty    Senior Bowl    (68.0", 203, 30.9 BMI)
-0.4    Reggie Corbin    Shrine Game    (68.1", 199, 30.1 BMI)
-0.5    Darrynton Evans    est    (70.0", 200, 28.7 BMI)
-0.9    Eno Benjamin    Senior Bowl    (69.0", 195, 28.8 BMI)
-1.1    Darius Anderson    Senior Bowl    (70.5", 195, 27.6 BMI)
-1.1    Lynn Bowden Jr.    est    (72.3", 199, 26.8 BMI)
-1.3    Frankie Hickson    est    (67.1", 190, 29.7 BMI)
-1.3    LeVante Bellamy    Shrine Game    (68.5", 191, 28.6 BMI)
-2.6    Malcolm Perry    Shrine Game    (69.5", 182, 26.5 BMI)
-5.5    Adrian Killins, Jr.    Shrine Game    (67.4", 162, 25.1 BMI)

Eno Benjamin weighing in at 195 at the Senior Bowl was bad news for his chances to be more than a Chris Thompson type back.

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I'm starting to look at TEs, and there are some guys with very good production.

Here is the leaderboard in one stat for the past 12 years; 3 of the top 12 are in this draft class:

Harrison Bryant    FAU    2019
Jace Sternberger    Texas A&M    2018
Evan Engram    Mississippi    2016
Jace Amaro    Texas Tech    2013
Ladarius Green    La Lafayette    2010
Hunter Bryant    Washington    2019
Jared Pinkney    Vanderbilt    2018
Caleb Wilson    UCLA    2018
Mark Andrews    Oklahoma    2017
Thomas Duarte    UCLA    2015
Devon Cajuste    Stanford    2013
Coby Fleener    Stanford    2011

This list is every FBS TE that I know of who had at least 10 25+ yard receptions in a single season since 2008. Harrison & Jace are tied for the lead with 12, the next 3 guys each have 11, and the rest have 10. If we continue on down to the guys with 9 25+ yard receptions, there are some more familiar names including one more TE in this draft class:

Brycen Hopkins    Purdue    2019
T.J. Hockenson    Iowa    2018
Mike Gesicki    Penn St    2016
Jordan Leggett    Clemson    2016
Maxx Williams    Minnesota    2014
Eric Ebron    North Carolina    2013
Austin Seferian-Jenkins    Washington    2012
Clive Walford    Miami Fl    2012
Eric Ebron    North Carolina    2012
Gavin Escobar    San Diego St.    2011

Mixed track records in the NFL, including some guys where it's too soon to tell, but these kinds of big plays are obviously a good sign for someone's NFL prospects.

There are a lot of recent seasons on these lists. It's possible that the game is changing in a way that favors TE production and I should make some era adjustments to my formula to account for that.

(It's possible that I'm missing some guys who belong on these leaderboard since my spreadsheet of TE stats isn't as thorough as my other data sets.)

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On 1/24/2020 at 12:48 AM, ZWK said:

2.55    Bryan Edwards    S Carolina    2019    *
2.48    Gabriel Davis    UCF    2019    
2.40    Antonio Gandy-Golden    Liberty    2019    

2.22    Kelvin Benjamin    FSU    2013   
2.15    KJ Hamler    Penn State    2019
2.08    Chase Claypool    Notre Dame    2019   
2.06    Quintez Cephus    Wisconsin    2019

2.04    Jon Baldwin    Pittsburgh    2010    
1.72    Michael Floyd    Notre Dame    2011    
1.53    Collin Johnson    Texas    2018    
1.51    Lynn Bowden, Jr.    Kentucky    2018
1.13    Henry Ruggs III    Alabama    2019    

1.04    Calvin Ridley    Alabama    2017    
0.99    Craig Davis    LSU    2006    
0.71    Cordarrelle Patterson    Tennessee    2012    
0.42    Anthony Gonzalez    Ohio State    2006    
-0.72    Laquon Treadwell    Miss    2015    
-1.04    Cody White    Mich St    2019
-2.95    Donovan Peoples-Jones    Michigan    2018

-3.01    Darrius Heyward-Bey    Maryland    2008    
-3.61    Kalija Lipscomb    Vanderbilt    2018
-5.05    Van Jefferson    Florida    2019    
-5.08    K.J. Hill    Ohio State    2018   

Lack of college production is a pretty big warning signing for all of these WRs, especially the ones at the bottom.

So far there have been 48 successful WRs who entered the NFL since 2006 (where "successful" means 150+ career VBD by my numbers).

73% of them (35/48) were productive FBS college receivers, with at least one season with a production rating of 3.00 or better
17% of them (8/48) were not FBS receivers in college (7 attended non-FBS schools and 1 was a QB)
10% of them (5/48) were not-that-productive FBS college receivers, with no seasons with a production rating of 3.00 or better

In other words, in a typical year, the FCS is more likely to produce a successful fantasy WR than this part of the rankings.

The FCS has given us Marques Colston, Tyreek Hill, Victor Cruz, Pierre Garcon, Adam Thielen, Miles Austin, and Cooper Kupp.

The not-that-productive FBS WRs have given us Antonio Brown, Michael Thomas, Mike Wallace, Doug Baldwin, and Josh Gordon.

The QB position has given us Julian Edelman.

And the productive FBS WRs have given us Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green, DeAndre Hopkins, Demaryius Thomas, Odell Beckham, Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, Mike Evans, Greg Jennings, Keenan Allen, T.Y. Hilton, Davante Adams, DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Jarvis Landry, Eric Decker, Jeremy Maclin, Dwayne Bowe, Emmanuel Sanders, Brandin Cooks, Golden Tate, Randall Cobb, Michael Crabtree, Stefon Diggs, Percy Harvin, Allen Robinson, Hakeem Nicks, Amari Cooper, Santonio Holmes, Robert Woods, Stevie Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Marvin Jones.

It's also worth noting that all 5 successful NFL WRs who were not that productive in the FBS still had more production than Donovan Peoples-Jones, Kalija Lipscomb, Van Jefferson, or K.J. Hill. So those 4 guys are looking like receivers to avoid.

I can see some case for not completely avoiding the guys in the 1.00-3.00 range. I already talked some about the cases for Ruggs & Bowden, and some of the other guys on this list have great size which is a plus (Chase Claypool, Collin Johnson, and to a lesser extent Antonio Gandy-Golden). But I'm generally not going to get that excited about these guys who didn't do so much as receivers in college.

Edited by ZWK
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I've been tinkering with the formula for my TE production rating and made a few changes.

The basic idea is the same as before - I take 5 production stats (yards per target, TDs per game, yards per game, 25+ yard receptions per game, and 1st down per games), rescale them all to be on the same scale, and take the weighted sum (with more weight on the first two of those stats and less on the last one). One change that I've made is to do some regression to the mean, so that a TE who has great TDs per game over a small number of games is downgraded compared to someone who has the same per game stats with more games (and similarly for the other stats, including great YPT on a small number of targets). Before a season like Breeland's 2019 with huge stats over 6 games (or Devon Cajuste's 2013 with great efficiency over 10 games and 44 targets) would've either counted as one of the top few seasons ever or I'd just leave it out entirely. I have also added some team adjustments (like I was already doing for WRs & RBs) so that great raw stats on a high-flying offense count for less. I have also made some changes to how I combine multiple seasons into a single career production rating, which helps guys like Albert Okwuegbunam who had a consistently solid career and hurts guys like Cajuste again who had a flukish big season early in their college career.

One thing that I haven't fixed is that my TE dataset is still pretty spotty, especially before the past few years. I've had to add guys one by one, so I have included the notable guys but am missing some older players (possibly including some who had good college production but didn't get drafted early or do much in the NFL).

Here are the top 25 most productive college TEs since 2006 in my dataset:

2019    Jace Sternberger
2017    Evan Engram
2019    Caleb Wilson
2010    Rob Gronkowski
2012    Coby Fleener
2020    Harrison Bryant
2006    Vernon Davis
2016    Thomas Duarte
2015    Maxx Williams
2012    Ladarius Green
2014    Jace Amaro
2015    Clive Walford
2019    T.J. Hockenson
2010    Jermaine Gresham
2010    Dennis Pitta
2020    Jacob Breeland
2009    Chase Coffman
2017    Gerald Everett
2013    Travis Kelce
2015    MyCole Pruitt
2016    Ben Braunecker
2020    Hunter Bryant
2016    Tyler Higbee
2011    Lance Kendricks
2020    Brycen Hopkins

There isn't much of a penalty for playing in the FCS (which helps guys like Pruitt & Braunecker), and there isn't any penalty for playing WR (which helps Thomas Duarte).

Here is the production percentile ranking of the 13 guys in this draft class who are now in my database of 166 TE prospects. e.g., Harrison Bryant at 6th out of 166 TEs is in the 97th percentile.

97    Harrison Bryant
91    Jacob Breeland
87    Hunter Bryant
85    Brycen Hopkins
78    Cheyenne O'Grady
74    Albert Okwuegbunam
68    Jared Pinkney
64    Devin Asiasi
55    Mitchell Wilcox
52    Cole Kmet
38    Josiah Deguara
31    Colby Parkinson
27    Thaddeus Moss

Jacob Breeland had a pretty amazing start to the 2019 season, with 26/405/6 over 6 games and 12.7 YPT before getting knocked out with a knee injury. That's an amazing 6-game stretch, but how impressive is it to do that for just 6 games? One conservative way to look at that is to pro-rate his 2018 down to 7 games and then add them up to create a single amalgamated 13-game season - over those "13 games" he had 43/669/7.4 with 11.3 YPT. Which is that not far behind to Hockenson's 2018, when he played 13 actual games and had 49/760/6 with 11.7 YPT.

This is all just based on production. I'll need to include size & athleticism numbers to calculate my overall prospect rankings for TEs. And there are a bunch of things that are relevant for evaluating TEs which aren't in my formula, including scouting reports and some numbers like drop rate.

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CeeDee Lamb has been neck-and-neck with Ja'Marr Chase for most productive WR in college football, and he's neck-and-neck with Jerry Jeudy for the top WR in the draft in the various rankings that are out there, so he's an obvious choice for top WR.

There are a few questions about him. One is the Oklahoma offense, which has put up huge passing numbers over the past 4-5 years and generated plenty of big receiving production.

So here's a look at how Lamb's production has stacked up against other Sooners. Over the past 5 years there have been 10 seasons where an Oklahoma player had 700+ receiving yards.

Receiving Yards Per Game   
117.2    Dede Westbrook    2016
102.1    CeeDee Lamb    2019
99.1    Sterling Shepard    2015
94.1    Marquise Brown    2018
84.2    Marquise Brown    2017
82.7    CeeDee Lamb    2018
68.4    Mark Andrews    2017
57.6    CeeDee Lamb    2017
57.2    Dede Westbrook    2015
53.1    Charleston Rambo    2019
        
Yards per Team Attempt     
3.97    Dede Westbrook    2016
3.75    CeeDee Lamb    2019
3.29    Marquise Brown    2018
2.93    Sterling Shepard    2015
2.89    CeeDee Lamb    2018
2.72    Marquise Brown    2017
2.21    Mark Andrews    2017
1.95    Charleston Rambo    2019
1.86    CeeDee Lamb    2017
1.69    Dede Westbrook    2015
        
Yards per Target  
14.65    Dede Westbrook    2016
14.12    CeeDee Lamb    2019
13.35    Marquise Brown    2017
13.01    CeeDee Lamb    2018
12.43    Marquise Brown    2018
12.04    CeeDee Lamb    2017
11.79    Charleston Rambo    2019
10.94    Mark Andrews    2017
10.54    Sterling Shepard    2015
9.30    Dede Westbrook    2015
        
Market Share of Passing TDs   
42%    CeeDee Lamb    2019
40%    Dede Westbrook    2016
29%    Sterling Shepard    2015
26%    CeeDee Lamb    2018
23%    Marquise Brown    2018
17%    Mark Andrews    2017
16%    Marquise Brown    2017
15%    CeeDee Lamb    2017
14%    Charleston Rambo    2019
11%    Dede Westbrook    2015
        
25+ Yard Receptions per Game    
1.69    CeeDee Lamb    2019
1.54    Dede Westbrook    2016
1.29    Marquise Brown    2018
1.08    Sterling Shepard    2015
1.07    CeeDee Lamb    2018
1.00    Marquise Brown    2017
0.86    Charleston Rambo    2019
0.77    Dede Westbrook    2015
0.71    Mark Andrews    2017
0.64    CeeDee Lamb    2017

Once again Lamb is neck-and-neck, this time with Dede Westbrook for best receiving season by an Oklahoma player. Westbrook's 2016 and Lamb's 2019 take the top two spots, in some order, on every one of these stats. My overall production formula likes Westbrook's 2016 slightly better.

Also, Lamb's 2018 is the best season by Oklahoma's #2 WR over any of these years, and edges out Marquise Brown's 2017 (and Shepard's 2015) as the best 2nd best season by any of these players. My formula for career production puts Lamb ahead of Westbrook for this reason, although not by a lot.

Also, Lamb is a year younger than Marquise Brown was when he graduated, and 2 years younger than Westbrook or Shepard.

Also, Lamb's biggest year came with QB Jalen Hurts, who is generally seen as a worse QB than Mayfield or Murray.

So on the whole Lamb's college production looks most impressive out of recent Oklahoma WRs, although not by a huge margin over Westbrook.

It also seems relevant that Westbrook, Brown, Shepard, and Andrews were drafted in rounds 4, 1, 2, and 3, and have shown some competence at the NFL level. So these haven't been scrubs putting up numbers in the Oklahoma offense.

So even if we downgrade it some for happening in a very receiver friendly offense, it looks like Lamb's production at least counts as "very good."

Another set of concerns around Lamb is his size. Draftscout estimates him at 6'0.6", 189 lb, 25.2 BMI, which is bigger than Westbrook or Brown but still below the 26.0 BMI cutoff that gets me concerned. They also estimate him as a bit slower than Westbrook or Brown, without the blazing speed (sub 4.40) that seems like it might help counteract the downsides of lack of size. I haven't seen mph numbers for his on-the-field speed. We'll get actual size & athleticism measurements soon enough at the combine.

Edited by ZWK
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Here's the 2-year 10 YPT club. Every receiver with at least 10 YPT over the combined 2018-19 seasons, min 100 combined targets, limited to guys who played in 2019, possibly missing a few players who failed to make the cut for my spreadsheet:

13.6    CeeDee Lamb    Oklahoma    (183 targets)
13.0    DeVonta Smith    Alabama    (150 targets)
12.9    Ja'Marr Chase    LSU    (162 targets)
12.0    Jerry Jeudy    Alabama    (207 targets)
11.5    Henry Ruggs III    Alabama    (129 targets)
11.4    Tee Higgins    Clemson    (184 targets)
11.2    Austin Watkins Jr.    UAB    (105 targets)
11.2    Nico Collins    Michigan    (122 targets)
11.0    Tyquan Thornton    Baylor    (103 targets)
11.0    Brandon Aiyuk    Ariz St    (152 targets)
10.9    Chatarius Atwell    Louisville    (154 targets)
10.9    Omar Bayless    Ark St    (204 targets)
10.7    Justin Jefferson    LSU    (226 targets)
10.7    Tamorrion Terry    FSU    (181 targets)
10.5    John Hightower    Boise St    (138 targets)
10.4    Brandon Arconado    Wash St    (107 targets)
10.4    Tre Walker    SJSU    (181 targets)
10.3    JD Spielman    Nebraska    (166 targets)
10.3    Justyn Ross    Clemson    (182 targets)
10.1    Tylan Wallace    Okla St    (236 targets)
10.1    Tyler Johnson    Minnesota    (246 targets)
10.0    Damonte Coxie    Memphis    (244 targets)
10.0    Ja'Marcus Bradley    La-Lafytte    (151 targets)
            
And a few guys who didn't quite make the cut:
14.2    Jaylen Waddle    Alabama    (99 targets)
12.3    Geraud Sanders    Air Force    (80 targets)
11.9    Charleston Rambo    Oklahoma    (73 targets)
11.4    Chris Olave    Ohio State    (92 targets)
11.0    Jacob Breeland    Oregon     (71 targets)
10.9    Hunter Bryant    Washington    (98 targets)
10.5    Quintez Cephus    Wisconsin    (133 combined targets in 2017 & 2019, missed 2018 season)
10.2    Dante Wright    CSU    (79 targets)
9.98    Jauan Jennings    Tennessee    (141 targets)
9.97    Harrison Bryant    FAU    (167 targets)
9.97    Dyami Brown    N Carolina    (121 targets)

Interesting names are Ceedee Lamb at the top of the leaderboard and Jeudy not far behind. Lamb & Jeudy were also near the top of the list a year ago, with a 12+ YPT target club for 2017-18 of Emanuel Hall, Marquise Brown, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and A.J. Brown. That's a pretty nice group of prospects, plus Emanuel Hall.

Some other notable features are 3 TEs on the near-miss list (Breeland, Bryant, and Bryant) and 4 Alabama receivers on the lists.

Edited by ZWK

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I've been looking up data on prospects' speed, mainly players' on-the-field max speed (in mph) from various sources and also track times in the 100m dash . The first advantage of getting these numbers is that they let us get a head start on estimating players' speed, a month before the combine. Draftscout 40 time estimates aren't bad but they also aren't that great; it's better to have these solid numbers. The second advantage is that I think these numbers give us some information even after we know a player's combine 40 time. It's nice to have a uniform system to measure everyone's speed on the same scale and under the same conditions, but two sprints on a single day do an imperfect job of representing a player's speed so we can still learn more from an estimate of how fast they ran on the field or from their official time from a 100m track race.

Here are data on this year's draft class. I also have these numbers in a spreadsheet (on-field mph, 100m) with a few more columns of info, including links to sources.

First, here are the guys who I have a 100m time for. As I've been doing for years, I take their 100m time, wind-adjust it (adding 0.06s for each 1 m/s of tailwind), translate it into an estimated 40 time (using a linear scale where 10.00-->4.30 and 11.00-->4.50). I'll use this as my current estimated 40 time for the player if it's faster than draftscout's estimate. If it's slower then I stick with the draftscout number, since it doesn't seem right to penalize a player for slow track times (especially since track times depend on track-specific skills like starting from blocks, and most of them are from HS and players could've gotten stronger & faster since they were 17 years old or whatever).

Est 40  Player    		100m    wind   adj 100m
4.33    Anthony Schwartz	10.09   0.9    10.14
4.35    Kary Vincent		10.07   2.6    10.22
4.38    Devin Duvernay		10.27   1.8    10.38
*4.38   Henry Ruggs III		10.42   ???    10.42*
4.39    Shaun Shivers		10.33   2.0    10.45
4.40    Jonathan Taylor		10.49          10.49
4.41    Henry Ruggs III		10.53          10.53
4.41    Troy Pride Jr.		10.50   0.7    10.54
4.45    DeVonta Smith		10.67   1.5    10.76
4.51    Jaylen Waddle		10.84   3.5    11.05
4.52    J.K. Dobbins		11.03   0.9    11.08

Great times for Duvernay, Taylor, Ruggs, and some less heralded (or non-skill-position) players.

A big advantage of 100m times is that track events are very serious about accurate, precise, consistent timing. They even record wind speed, and have limits for how fast the wind can be for it to count as an official record, as well as equations for estimating wind-adjusted times. I try to get all my times from actual track & field results sites rather than random news articles or forums posts because the results track those things. For instance, this site reports Jaylen Waddle with a 10.68 100m time, but the track & field site Athletic shows that he did this with a +6.9 m/s of wind assistance which is way above the 2.0 m/s limit for an official time, and the standard wind adjustment adds 0.41 seconds to his time. His fastest time after accounting for the wind is actually a different race. That site also lists Ruggs with a 10.42 100m time, but the source for that time is that Ruggs told it to reporters; it doesn't show up on Athletic (possibly because it happened at a small event?), so we don't know what the wind was like and there's some chance that Ruggs is misreporting what happened. I included this number with asterisks on the list above but for estimating Ruggs's speed I'm using his fastest recorded time of 10.53.

 

Now, here is what I have for on-field mph. This is new, since the availability of these data has been spotty. This year I'm finding more of these, primarily from Recruiting Analytics on Twitter, although they seem much less thorough & systematic than the NFL-level data from Next Gen Stats which has been reporting each week's 20 fastest ballcarrier speeds for the past few years.

I have found reported on-field mph for a bunch of college players (from various sources). I've taken those numbers, adjusted them downward based on the sketchiness of the source, and translated it into an estimated 40 time (using a linear scale where 21.3-->4.44 and 20.5-->4.50). I'm now using this as the player's estimated 40 time if it's faster than draftscout's estimate (and any translated 100m times that I have for them). It again doesn't make sense to penalize guys for slow times, since data are still spotty and also opportunities to hit your max speed on the field during a game are pretty rare.

Est 40	Player			"MPH"	Sketch	AdjMPH	Source
4.33	Tre Brown		23.30	1	22.71	Recruiting Analytics
4.36	Adrian Killins		22.90	1	22.35	Recruiting Analytics
4.38	Tamorrion Terry		23.40	2.5	22.05	Recruiting Analytics
4.39	Antonio Gandy-Golden	23.30	2.5	21.98	Recruiting Analytics
4.42	Henry Ruggs III		22.00	1	21.55	Recruiting Analytics
4.42	Salvon Ahmed		22.00	1	21.55	Recruiting Analytics
4.43	Chuba Hubbard		21.90	1	21.46	Recruiting Analytics
4.43	Jalen Reagor		22.60	2.5	21.45	Recruiting Analytics
4.43	Jaylen Waddle		21.90	1	21.44	Logic Sports
4.43	Henry Ruggs III		24.30	6	21.41	player
4.43	Devin Duvernay		21.80	1	21.37	Recruiting Analytics
4.45	Jonathan Taylor		21.60	1	21.20	Recruiting Analytics
4.45	Anthony McFarland	21.60	1	21.16	Logic Sports
4.45	Jonathan Taylor		22.40	3	21.15	random article
4.45	Jaylen Waddle		21.50	1	21.11	Recruiting Analytics
4.45	Trestan Ebner		21.50	1	21.11	Recruiting Analytics
4.46	Van Jefferson		21.10	0	21.10	Senior Bowl
4.46	Dane Jackson		21.10	0	21.10	Senior Bowl
4.46	Devin Duvernay		21.00	0	21.00	Senior Bowl
4.46	Henry Ruggs III		23.00	5	21.00	team
4.47	Ke'Shawn Vaughn		21.30	1	20.93	Logic Sports
4.47	Cam Akers		22.40	4	20.89	player
4.47	Anthony Schwartz	21.20	1	20.85	Recruiting Analytics
4.47	Lamar Jackson		20.80	0	20.84	Senior Bowl
4.48	Bryan Edwards		22.30	4	20.83	player/team
4.48	KH Hamler		21.10	1	20.76	Logic Sports
4.49	Travis Etienne		21.40	2	20.71	Logic Sports
4.49	Brandon Aiyuk		20.90	1	20.59	Recruiting Analytics
4.50	Trevon Diggs		20.80	1	20.50	Recruiting Analytics
4.50	Troy Pride Jr.		20.50	0	20.46	Senior Bowl
4.51	Essang Bassey		20.30	0	20.32	Senior Bowl
4.52	Denzel Mims		20.30	0	20.26	Senior Bowl
4.52	Alohi Gilman		20.30	0	20.25	Senior Bowl
4.53	Chase Claypool		20.20	0	20.17	Senior Bowl
4.53	Terrell Burgess		20.10	0	20.11	Senior Bowl
4.53	Antonio Gandy-Golden	20.10	0	20.05	Senior Bowl
4.54	Pooka Williams		20.40	2	20.01	Logic Sports
4.54	JaMycal Hasty		19.90	0	19.94	Senior Bowl
4.55	Stephen Sullivan	19.90	0	19.90	Senior Bowl

A fair amount of overlap with the 100m leaders near the top, with fast measured speeds from Ruggs, Duvernay, and Taylor. They're joined by WR Tamorrion Terry, WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, RB Salvon Ahmed, RB Chubba Hubbard, WR Jalen Reagor, and WR Jaylen Waddle, and some others. The biggest surprises here are Terry (who draftscout has estimated at a 4.64 40!) and Gandy-Golden (who they have at 4.56).

The sketchiness adjustment seems important because these numbers are tracked much less carefully than track-and-field times. For example, Next Gen Stats speeds in their first year (2016) are generally about 0.75 mph faster than their speeds since then. Apparently they changed something about their method. And if we see that large a change in one organization from one year to the next, we could easily see larger changes between different organizations or people who are independently doing on-field speed tracking. Recruiting Analytics compared their tracking numbers to those of Next Gen Stats in this tweet, but they just looked at one play and they did find a 0.4 mph difference. As another example, over the past 3 seasons the fastest ballcarrier speed clocked by Next Gen Stats is 22.30 mph. I've seen 9 reports of college players running faster than that, with the fastest from an independent source Recruiting Analytics with Tamorrion Terry at 23.4 mph and the fastest from any source Ruggs claiming to have hit 24.3 mph. There is a general problem with rare fastest speed records that, if there is some error in the process for estimating speeds, then especially large positive errors will show up especially often in the cases of the fastest estimated speeds.

With all those issues, I don't want to throw the data out. The overlap between fast on-field mph and fast 100m times is a good sign, and many of the players without great track times were on lists of fastest college players for other reasons. But these numbers aren't just telling us things that were already common knowledge - it'll be interesting to see what happens where the mph data suggest that guys have more speed than other people have been recognizing. Antonio Gandy-Golden will provide an initial test case on this; there's also Cam Akers & Bryan Edwards who have smaller gaps (draftscout has them at 4.54 & 4.52) and odder sources of mph data. In a year or two Tamorrion Terry will be another good test case.

So I have adjusted most of these reported mph downwards, especially for the higher speeds and for reports that came from sketchier sources (like Ruggs's self-report or this mysterious piece of paper from the South Carolina locker room). The one source that gets no adjustment are the reports from the Senior Bowl, which come from the same company that does Next Gen Stats and are more in line with what we see from NFL players in 2017-19 Next Gen Stats data. The translation from mph to 40 times is based on the observed correlation between NFL player's 40 times and their top on-field NFL speed using Next Gen Stats numbers, for players with lots of NFL touches and relatively good speed.

The estimated 40 times in my RB & WR spreadsheets are now using this method (each player gets whichever estimated 40 time is fastest: draftscout's, the one here based on 100m times, or the one here based on on-field mph). I'll need to figure out what exactly to do after the combine. Probably I should wait until after the combine to figure that out, because the overall pattern of results will tell us something about how informative these other soruces of speed data are.

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(This post has a bunch of speculation about the future of things like player tracking data, and is not that relevant to evaluating this draft class.)

Part of why I'm looking so closely at this player tracking data is that I expect it to become increasingly important over the next few years.

The thing that's great about the NFL combine is that it's a standardized way to turn a player's athleticism into numbers. Being more athletic helps a player's chances of succeeding in the NFL. The eye test is pretty good at picking up which players are more athletic, but not amazing at it. So it helps to have some systematic way put numbers on players' athleticism, like by having them do a standard set of runs and jumps and run back-and-forths and measuring how they do on those simple easily-measured exercises. That makes it straightforward to compare players with each other, and with decades of previous players, to see how they stack up on these measurements of athleticism.

But player tracking data plus new analytical techniques (or even just video plus even better analytical techniques) can let us use game tape to turn a player's athleticism into numbers. The player's movements on the field contain a lot of information about their athleticism. And it's especially relevant information, because athleticism matters due to what it allows players to do on the field.

Max speed is a start. It's an obvious thing to look at, and I guess relatively easy to measure and easy to interpret. How fast was this guy going, in mph. But it's not the most relevant stat, since players don't approach their max speed on most plays. So it's pretty rare for a play to directly depend on whether someone can hit 22 mph rather than just 20 mph. That even means that there's a small sample size of plays where a player even gets a chance to approach his max speed, so a player with a low observed max speed might just lack good open field opportunities. (We can see this reflected in the gap between players' fastest recorded time and their second fastest recorded time, which is something like half a second on average among players with a bunch of touches.)

Looking at acceleration is another option. There are lots of plays where it matters how quickly a player can speed up from 5mph to 15mph. Instead of looking at the 1-3 plays per year when a player hits his fastest speed and seeing how fast he went, you could look at the 20-60 plays per year when a player hits his quickest burst and see how quickly he accelerated. Or maybe do something fancier with acceleration curves or distributions of plays. This gives you a number for the player's athleticism which can be just as easily comparable to other players, and which is more directly relevant to what happens on the field, and is based on aggregated data from dozens of plays rather than just a few plays (or a few runs & jumps on one day in February or March).

People are also starting to use machine learning to look at player tracking data and predict what's going to happen. If that can get good at predicting what a typical player would do, then you can compare what the player actually does and see how it's different (especially in cases where it is clearly better or worse). For example, maybe there are some plays where the machine learning algorithm can recognize "for this player, at this point in the play, he should be trying to speed up as fast as he can; the quicker he can accelerate in this moment the better that is for his team on this play" and also "on average, here is how quickly we'd expect players to be able to speed up in that situation" (or even "here's the distribution of how quickly players speed up") and then we see how quickly the actual player speeds up. Aggregate across a bunch of plays and you can put a number on how good each player is at that athletic trait, in a way that is not that noisy (or dependent on single plays) and straightforwardly comparable across players.

You can do a bunch of analyses like this, identifying different attributes. Change of direction, reaction time in different situations, etc., etc. You can also try a bunch of different approaches to evaluating any one attribute (like "burst"). If it's based on game videos without requiring any special tracking devices, you can feed in years of game videos and get historical player comparisons. If you have a decent way of analyzing how valuable players were, then you can look at different attributes like burst and change of direction (and different approaches to evaluating any one of those attributes) and see which ones best predict how valuable the players were. Feed in years and years of old college videos and use the algorithms to rate how good players were on various attributes, and see which attributes predict NFL success.

There is lots of potential here. I suspect that some of it will happen behind closed doors in teams' scouting & analytics departments, while other parts of it will happen out in public where we can read about it and see the numbers/analyses. Some of it will involve simple outputs that rank players on statistics that are easy to interpret like fastest ball carriers (even if collecting those statistics requires fancy tech & analysis), while other parts will involve messy not-that-interpretabilty attributes or collections of attributes (like machine learning often does).

This is all a bunch of speculation, but thoughts like this make me want to try to get a handle on whatever new sources of data we have to figure out what we can do with them, rather than just sticking to the sources of data which have been standard for decades.

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5 hours ago, ZWK said:

I've been looking up data on prospects' speed, mainly players' on-the-field max speed (in mph) from various sources and also track times in the 100m dash . The first advantage of getting these numbers is that they let us get a head start on estimating players' speed, a month before the combine. Draftscout 40 time estimates aren't bad but they also aren't that great; it's better to have these solid numbers. The second advantage is that I think these numbers give us some information even after we know a player's combine 40 time. It's nice to have a uniform system to measure everyone's speed on the same scale and under the same conditions, but two sprints on a single day do an imperfect job of representing a player's speed so we can still learn more from an estimate of how fast they ran on the field or from their official time from a 100m track race.

Here are data on this year's draft class. I also have these numbers in a spreadsheet (on-field mph, 100m) with a few more columns of info, including links to sources.

[...]

Now, here is what I have for on-field mph. This is new, since the availability of these data has been spotty. This year I'm finding more of these, primarily from Recruiting Analytics on Twitter, although they seem much less thorough & systematic than the NFL-level data from Next Gen Stats which has been reporting each week's 20 fastest ballcarrier speeds for the past few years.

I have found reported on-field mph for a bunch of college players (from various sources). I've taken those numbers, adjusted them downward based on the sketchiness of the source, and translated it into an estimated 40 time (using a linear scale where 21.3-->4.44 and 20.5-->4.50). I'm now using this as the player's estimated 40 time if it's faster than draftscout's estimate (and any translated 100m times that I have for them). It again doesn't make sense to penalize guys for slow times, since data are still spotty and also opportunities to hit your max speed on the field during a game are pretty rare.


Est 40	Player			"MPH"	Sketch	AdjMPH	Source
4.33	Tre Brown		23.30	1	22.71	Recruiting Analytics
4.36	Adrian Killins		22.90	1	22.35	Recruiting Analytics
4.38	Tamorrion Terry		23.40	2.5	22.05	Recruiting Analytics
4.39	Antonio Gandy-Golden	23.30	2.5	21.98	Recruiting Analytics
4.42	Henry Ruggs III		22.00	1	21.55	Recruiting Analytics
4.42	Salvon Ahmed		22.00	1	21.55	Recruiting Analytics
4.43	Chuba Hubbard		21.90	1	21.46	Recruiting Analytics
4.43	Jalen Reagor		22.60	2.5	21.45	Recruiting Analytics
4.43	Jaylen Waddle		21.90	1	21.44	Logic Sports
4.43	Henry Ruggs III		24.30	6	21.41	player
4.43	Devin Duvernay		21.80	1	21.37	Recruiting Analytics
4.45	Jonathan Taylor		21.60	1	21.20	Recruiting Analytics
4.45	Anthony McFarland	21.60	1	21.16	Logic Sports
4.45	Jonathan Taylor		22.40	3	21.15	random article
4.45	Jaylen Waddle		21.50	1	21.11	Recruiting Analytics
4.45	Trestan Ebner		21.50	1	21.11	Recruiting Analytics
4.46	Van Jefferson		21.10	0	21.10	Senior Bowl
4.46	Dane Jackson		21.10	0	21.10	Senior Bowl
4.46	Devin Duvernay		21.00	0	21.00	Senior Bowl
4.46	Henry Ruggs III		23.00	5	21.00	team
4.47	Ke'Shawn Vaughn		21.30	1	20.93	Logic Sports
4.47	Cam Akers		22.40	4	20.89	player
4.47	Anthony Schwartz	21.20	1	20.85	Recruiting Analytics
4.47	Lamar Jackson		20.80	0	20.84	Senior Bowl
4.48	Bryan Edwards		22.30	4	20.83	player/team
4.48	KH Hamler		21.10	1	20.76	Logic Sports
4.49	Travis Etienne		21.40	2	20.71	Logic Sports
4.49	Brandon Aiyuk		20.90	1	20.59	Recruiting Analytics
4.50	Trevon Diggs		20.80	1	20.50	Recruiting Analytics
4.50	Troy Pride Jr.		20.50	0	20.46	Senior Bowl
4.51	Essang Bassey		20.30	0	20.32	Senior Bowl
4.52	Denzel Mims		20.30	0	20.26	Senior Bowl
4.52	Alohi Gilman		20.30	0	20.25	Senior Bowl
4.53	Chase Claypool		20.20	0	20.17	Senior Bowl
4.53	Terrell Burgess		20.10	0	20.11	Senior Bowl
4.53	Antonio Gandy-Golden	20.10	0	20.05	Senior Bowl
4.54	Pooka Williams		20.40	2	20.01	Logic Sports
4.54	JaMycal Hasty		19.90	0	19.94	Senior Bowl
4.55	Stephen Sullivan	19.90	0	19.90	Senior Bowl

A fair amount of overlap with the 100m leaders near the top, with fast measured speeds from Ruggs, Duvernay, and Taylor. They're joined by WR Tamorrion Terry, WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, RB Salvon Ahmed, RB Chubba Hubbard, WR Jalen Reagor, and WR Jaylen Waddle, and some others. The biggest surprises here are Terry (who draftscout has estimated at a 4.64 40!) and Gandy-Golden (who they have at 4.56).

The sketchiness adjustment seems important because these numbers are tracked much less carefully than track-and-field times. For example, Next Gen Stats speeds in their first year (2016) are generally about 0.75 mph faster than their speeds since then. Apparently they changed something about their method. And if we see that large a change in one organization from one year to the next, we could easily see larger changes between different organizations or people who are independently doing on-field speed tracking. Recruiting Analytics compared their tracking numbers to those of Next Gen Stats in this tweet, but they just looked at one play and they did find a 0.4 mph difference. As another example, over the past 3 seasons the fastest ballcarrier speed clocked by Next Gen Stats is 22.30 mph. I've seen 9 reports of college players running faster than that, with the fastest from an independent source Recruiting Analytics with Tamorrion Terry at 23.4 mph and the fastest from any source Ruggs claiming to have hit 24.3 mph. There is a general problem with rare fastest speed records that, if there is some error in the process for estimating speeds, then especially large positive errors will show up especially often in the cases of the fastest estimated speeds.

With all those issues, I don't want to throw the data out. The overlap between fast on-field mph and fast 100m times is a good sign, and many of the players without great track times were on lists of fastest college players for other reasons. But these numbers aren't just telling us things that were already common knowledge - it'll be interesting to see what happens where the mph data suggest that guys have more speed than other people have been recognizing. Antonio Gandy-Golden will provide an initial test case on this; there's also Cam Akers & Bryan Edwards who have smaller gaps (draftscout has them at 4.54 & 4.52) and odder sources of mph data. In a year or two Tamorrion Terry will be another good test case.

So I have adjusted most of these reported mph downwards, especially for the higher speeds and for reports that came from sketchier sources (like Ruggs's self-report or this mysterious piece of paper from the South Carolina locker room). The one source that gets no adjustment are the reports from the Senior Bowl, which come from the same company that does Next Gen Stats and are more in line with what we see from NFL players in 2017-19 Next Gen Stats data. The translation from mph to 40 times is based on the observed correlation between NFL player's 40 times and their top on-field NFL speed using Next Gen Stats numbers, for players with lots of NFL touches and relatively good speed.

The estimated 40 times in my RB & WR spreadsheets are now using this method (each player gets whichever estimated 40 time is fastest: draftscout's, the one here based on 100m times, or the one here based on on-field mph). I'll need to figure out what exactly to do after the combine. Probably I should wait until after the combine to figure that out, because the overall pattern of results will tell us something about how informative these other soruces of speed data are.

After looking into some of these sources a little more, I've decided to update my sketchiness numbers. First I threw out some of the sketchier data. It turns out that the play where Ruggs claimed to hit 24.3 mph is the same one where Recruiting Analytics clocked him at 22.0 mph. So instead of keeping the 24.3 mph claim with high sketchiness, I'm just removing that line from the data file and going with the guys who do player tracking for a living. This doesn't change anyone's bottom line numbers because I had included enough of a sketchiness penalty to downgrade these below the more solid numbers.

I'm making all of the Recruiting Analytics ones a uniform 1.0 sketchiness. Their times seem to run fast, but watching a few of their videos they look pretty legit. e.g. Gandy-Golden was at 23.2+ mph for a full step (2+ yards), and at 22.7+ mph for 2 full steps (4+ yards). The Logic Sports numbers don't seem to run fast so I'm reducing all of those to 0.5 sketchiness (except for the Pooka Williams one where they say that he "gets a 0.8 MPH speed-boost from the stiff arm" - unclear if they mean that this is what allowed him to reach his top speed, but if so that's about physics rather than speed).

I'm leaving the weird Akers & Edwards examples as is, but I'm thinking of those as a separate category (numbers that demonstrably reflect a team's tracking of practice speeds). The combine will basically give us 2 data points on the informativeness of that kind of information. We'll also get the one data point on Antonio Gandy-Golden for more standard player tracking mph data that is much faster than the player's reputation (or draftscout estimate).

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Fantastic stuff. IMO, MPH data is more important than the 40 time. Kareem Hunt and Darrel Williams are recent examples of being bad sprinters for whatever reason that measure well on the field. I wish that the collegiate programs and NFL would make this stuff more readily available.

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If the tracking data is correct, then Antonio Gandy-Golden is probably going to blow up the combine and move up a bunch of people's draft boards. 6'3.6", 222 lbs., 79/1396/10 receiving this year, and his on-field speed suggests that he should run sub 4.40. He also has a great (low) drop rate, according to the early edition of PFF's draft guide.

My WR receiving formula is currently crediting him with great speed but it still doesn't love him. His production rating is borderline, a bit below what I typically think of as the cutoff. And a big part of why his production rating is down there is Liberty's ridiculously weak strength of schedule, the 3rd easiest in the FBS according to cfbr. If he had the same numbers against an average SOS then my production formula would put his season up near Jalen Reagor's in the list at the bottom of this post, and my overall rating formula would have him as the #1 WR in this draft class (for now, pending more data).

There are also a few other places where his production numbers aren't quite as good as they could be, like a YPT that's a bit below 10.0 and TD numbers that are above average but not amazing. But that strength of schedule adjustment is what most has my attention, since it's a larger downward SOS adjustment than we've seen from any receiver in the first 3 rounds (though a few guys are in the same neighborhood: Aaron Dobson, Corey Davis, Jerrel Jernigan, and Greg Jennings). My inclination is to value Gandy-Golden above where my overall rating formula puts him. If a guy clearly has the physical skills then the level of competition is not as concerning. If you happen to be in a league that drafts before the NFL combine, Gandy-Golden looks like a good guy to target.

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Gandy-Golden had a few nice showings at the senior bowl, but also some really bad moments according to a few reports.  Apparently he did what he was suppose to do, show that he was big strong and fast, but also showed that he is a project for a team.  I like him as a player, but if he has a good combine, which it looks likely at this point, he might become too high for my blood.  

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