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TZMarkie

*WAIVER WIRE PICK-UPS AFTER WEEK 9*

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3 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Who are the TEs available?

Witten gesicki Doyle ebron and like 20 more.

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4 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Yes, the definitive dump off guy for Stafford, ppr even better.

Meh. What is he? An 8 opportunity guy? Like most players in the wire in week 9, or whatever, he seems like a desperation play at best.

If any other Det RB gets injured they will sign an Ajayi-like back and McKissic will remain an 8 opportunity guy. He has no path (none) to being a 15 touch guy.

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4 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Yes, the definitive dump off guy for Stafford, ppr even better.

Meh. What is he? An 8 opportunity guy? Like most players in the wire in week 9, or whatever, he seems like a desperation play at best.

If any other Det RB gets injured they will sign an Ajayi-like back and McKissic will remain an 8 opportunity guy. He has no path (none) to being a 15 touch guy.

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22 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

big thanks/props to @TZMarkie for this weekly thread!

Second that.

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3 hours ago, The Frankman said:

Chester Rogers, WR - Campbell out, Rogers will start ahead of Deon Cain.

When I was a kid I lived in Chester Rogers's Neighborhood.

/wait for it

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4 hours ago, Knox said:

If you had #1 waiver and needed a te.  Would you hold onto waiver and pick up one after waivers clear? 

In my league waiting is the right thing to do.

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The Jets are terrible. They have enough talent to not be terrible but, IMO, Gase is very close to being the worst coach in the NFL.

At any rate any redraft players should avoid Jets players. I think many of them have quit on the team. Miami, for example, is in a similar situation but have had a couple months to process that information and are starting to rebound. The Jets are just starting that process.

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22 minutes ago, Statorama said:

Has Ryan Griffen overtaken Herndon?  On the Jets, TE targets will be there

Herndon was active last week as an emergency player, but didn't get a snap (as expected). Griffen will be the backup when Herndon is ready to go (maybe this week). 

He's one of the top TE prospects in the league & had a rare good rookie season last year (for a TE).

Herndon's FF situation is above par, as well.

Edited by Football Jones
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28 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

Herndon was active last week as an emergency player, but didn't get a snap (as expected). Griffen will be the backup when Herndon is ready to go (maybe this week). 

He's one of the top TE prospects in the league & had a rare good rookie season last year (for a TE).

Herndon's FF situation is above par, as well.

My feeling is that dynasty players are holding Herndon regardless of this season. But I see zero reason, outside of utter desperation, for redraft players to consider any Jets players.

Sure, you can roster them and they may produce well in a game or two but what situations are you actually going to start them this season?

I'm thinking maybe 1% of redraft players have a chance to reap any value from a guy like Herndon this season.

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2 minutes ago, Chaka said:

My feeling is that dynasty players are holding Herndon regardless of this season. But I see zero reason, outside of utter desperation, for redraft players to consider any Jets players.

Sure, you can roster them and they may produce well in a game or two but what situations are you actually going to start them this season?

I'm thinking maybe 1% of redraft players have a chance to reap any value from a guy like Herndon this season.

Any TE that can put up a top 10 performance could be worthwhile.   Some people drafted OJ Howard and have been scrambling all season.    A lot of people lost Henry week 1 and if they don't have IR spots or long benches had to drop him for whatever was out there.   

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12 minutes ago, Chaka said:

My feeling is that dynasty players are holding Herndon regardless of this season. But I see zero reason, outside of utter desperation, for redraft players to consider any Jets players.

Sure, you can roster them and they may produce well in a game or two but what situations are you actually going to start them this season?

I'm thinking maybe 1% of redraft players have a chance to reap any value from a guy like Herndon this season.

For the record, my view on Herndon is mostly from a dynasty perspective, but even in redraft, he's a viable pickup, IMO.

TE is such a dumpster fire that with almost half the season to go, it makes sense, especially if you're scrambling at the position like a lot of people.

If Herndon is slow to get going, then sure, it's a different story. Assuming he plays this week, I'd give him 2 weeks minimum to see what you might have this season.

Edited by Football Jones

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39 minutes ago, -fish- said:

Any TE that can put up a top 10 performance could be worthwhile.   Some people drafted OJ Howard and have been scrambling all season.    A lot of people lost Henry week 1 and if they don't have IR spots or long benches had to drop him for whatever was out there.   

Absolutely. And any TE can put up a top 10 performance in any given week. How many can do it week-over-week? Again I'm talking redraft here: outside of total desperation who is starting any Jet expecting top 10 performance this season? 

Herndon is a week-over-week dart throw, just like every other Jet this season.

Sure, maybe and good luck to you. I just don't see how he is better than anything that is already on your roster, barring catastrophe of course.

Edited by Chaka

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37 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Absolutely. And any TE can put up a top 10 performance in any given week. How many can do it week-over-week? Again I'm talking redraft here: outside of total desperation who is starting any Jet expecting top 10 performance this season? 

Herndon is a week-over-week dart throw, just like every other Jet this season.

Sure, maybe and good luck to you. I just don't see how he is better than anything that is already on your roster, barring catastrophe of course.

Here's what I've run out week to week this season:

Week 1- Hunter Henry 4.2 points. Injured.
Week 2-Jimmy Graham. 0.0 points. Injured.
Week 3-Vance McDonald. 0.7 points. Injured.
Week 4-Greg Olsen. 0.35 points.
Week 5-Greg Olsen. 0.0 points.
Week 6-Greg Olsen. 3.64 points.
Week 7-Darren Fells. 1.89 points.
Week 8-TJ Hockensen. 1.47 points.
Week 9-TJ Hockensen. 3.92 points. Injured.

Herndon has good matchups and a mediocre young QB who likes to bail out to his TE.   He's a lot more talented than Griffin.   At this point, the floor for my TE position is essentially 2 points a week.   Herndon's ceiling is a whole lot better than anything else available (although I considered Hollister, but no way I'm starting him against the 49ers, especially with Dixon returning).   ROS, Herndon could very easily be top 10.

This makes the sixth time I've picked up Herndon this season.  :lmao:

Edited by -fish-
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3 hours ago, Chaka said:

 Like most players in the wire in week 9, or whatever, he seems like a desperation play at best.

 

Correct, but he did help me win a close one last week when half my team was on a bye.

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6 hours ago, xenith said:

i'm gonna throw a line in for gaskin personally (14tm ppr)

I love this kind of sleeper pick if you can afford a gamble. Agree that Ballage is not the answer, and MIA would be foolish not to throw some work his way to see what they have in a lost season. The fact that they are slowly gaining some grains of credibility after showing some fight and winning vs the Jets.

Gus Edwards, Ryquel, and Bonnafon are other guys I am eyeing for ROS depth/lottos.

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Just wanted to add Ted "Drop It Like It's Hot" Ginn Jr. to the list.

 

He may have been dropped in your league; with Drew Brees back he is the unrivaled #2 WR (no one threatening his job) and no worse than the 4th option passing wise for New Orleans. His upcoming schedule

Week 10 - Nov 10, ATL

Week 11 - Nov 17, @TB

Week 12 - Nov 24, CAR

Week 13 - Nov 28, @ATL

Not bad for a flex play if you ask me. I just picked him up and let me tell you, I'm not just getting Ted Ginn Jr., I'm getting his family too... Ted Ginn Jr. and his family will give you everything they've got...

Edited by The Frankman
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49 minutes ago, The Frankman said:

Just wanted to add Ted "Drop It Like It's Hot" Ginn Jr. to the list.

 

He may have been dropped in your league; with Drew Brees back he is the unrivaled #2 WR (no one threatening his job) and no worse than the 4th option passing wise for New Orleans. His upcoming schedule

Week 10 - Nov 10, ATL

Week 11 - Nov 17, @TB

Week 12 - Nov 24, CAR

Week 13 - Nov 28, @ATL

Not bad for a flex play if you ask me. I just picked him up and let me tell you, I'm not just getting Ted Ginn Jr., I'm getting his family too... Ted Ginn Jr. and his family will give you everything they've got...

Was really glad no one posted about him until after waivers.  Got him for free this morning.  Really flying under the radar.  In week 1 had 7 grabs for 100+ yards then Brees got injured in week 2.  Now they are back in the dome vs Atl this week.  Agree he will be a WR3/flex ros with that schedule in PPR leagues.

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8 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

I love this kind of sleeper pick if you can afford a gamble. Agree that Ballage is not the answer, and MIA would be foolish not to throw some work his way to see what they have in a lost season. The fact that they are slowly gaining some grains of credibility after showing some fight and winning vs the Jets.

Gus Edwards, Ryquel, and Bonnafon are other guys I am eyeing for ROS depth/lottos.

Good stuff STC, I'm looking at those last three myself. 

Got Edwards, missed out on Bonnafon, and plan to wait a week on Armstead with JAX on bye (grabbed Henderson LAR as a one-week lotto ticket).

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On 11/4/2019 at 5:11 PM, -fish- said:

Walton suspended.   Kalen Ballage and his 2.0 ypc next up for the next 4 weeks.   

LOL. 

You could use a sundial to time Ballage's 40-yard dash.   

 

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1 hour ago, dcgangstas said:

LOL. 

You could use a sundial to time Ballage's 40-yard dash.   

 

Actually, Ballage isn't slow.  Ran a 4.46 at the combine (good for any RB...fantastic for a guy his size).  Crazy thing is, his overall metrics resemble players like Leveon Bell and David Johnson.  Would have thought he could have learned something from Frank Gore last year.  He couldn't pull it all together in college and, if he doesn't show something these 4 games, he's going to fizzle out as a pro.

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As a Pac-12 watcher, I am shocked that Gaskin has been a healthy scratch this whole time. I think he gets a lot of playing time going forward to see what he has to offer 

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On 11/4/2019 at 10:06 PM, az_prof said:

TE: Gesicki is worth a look.

put in a bid for this guy but got snaked.

i wish there were Dos Gesickis.

Edited by grateful zed
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1 hour ago, The Frankman said:

I saw a video of Kallen Ballage's Greatest Hits and immediately went to pick up Myles Gaskin in the hopes he gets activated to play over Laird.

The one where he ducks to avoid the pass thrown at him (second to last play) is awesome.   

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20 minutes ago, -fish- said:

The one where he ducks to avoid the pass thrown at him (second to last play) is awesome.   

He also would not make a good goalie.

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Gardner Minshew...i want to drop him for a Foles. My Spidey sense is telling me to hold him.

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4 hours ago, grateful zed said:

put in a bid for this guy but got snaked.

i wish there were Dos Gesickis.

He seemed to have turned a corner eh?

 

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14 hours ago, grateful zed said:

put in a bid for this guy but got snaked.

i wish there were Dos Gesickis.

Stay thirsty my friend

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On 11/6/2019 at 10:41 AM, Chaka said:

Meh. What is he? An 8 opportunity guy? Like most players in the wire in week 9, or whatever, he seems like a desperation play at best.

If any other Det RB gets injured they will sign an Ajayi-like back and McKissic will remain an 8 opportunity guy. He has no path (none) to being a 15 touch guy.

I'll take an 8 touch guy if 5 of those touches are receptions.  McKissic is a great receiving back playing with an immobile quarterback.  He could average 5 receptions a game from here on out if he keeps playing 38% of snaps.  He is capable of having  a 12 reception game.  And the possibility exists that he could be given a larger role.   McKissic has looked great.  Ty Johnson has not looked good.  McKissic might be 195 pounds but the Lions are 3-4-1.  The Lions will go with whatever works even if it results in their diminutive running back getting hurt.

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1 hour ago, Don Hutson said:

I'll take an 8 touch guy if 5 of those touches are receptions.  McKissic is a great receiving back playing with an immobile quarterback.  He could average 5 receptions a game from here on out if he keeps playing 38% of snaps.  He is capable of having  a 12 reception game.  And the possibility exists that he could be given a larger role.   McKissic has looked great.  Ty Johnson has not looked good.  McKissic might be 195 pounds but the Lions are 3-4-1.  The Lions will go with whatever works even if it results in their diminutive running back getting hurt.

Eight opportunities, not touches.

You could be right, there are fewer mouths to feed in the Detroit backfield so things could change.

But up to this point no Detroit RB has seen five targets in a game. They average just under six targets for their RBs per game. That average has increased to just under eight over the last three games, still no RB seeing five targets.

With a ~75% career catch rate McKissic would need eight targets/game to average five catches.

So to project an average for one back going forward that is higher than their average for all RBs to date seems a bit optimistic. 

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For those of you with shorter benches, Kyle Allen has some tasty looking matchups on the horizon.

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On ‎11‎/‎4‎/‎2019 at 11:06 PM, az_prof said:

TE: Gesicki is worth a look. Over the last four weeks he has:

3 catches; 7 targets; 51 yards

4 catches; 4 targets; 41 yards

2 catches; 3 targets; 10 yards

6 catches; 6 targets; 95 yards

Fitzmagic

And with both Walton out for four games and Preston Williams injured for season, Gesicki is starting to look like one of the primary guys.  H

He has good matchups: 

Colts week 10

Jets week 14

Giants week 15

Bengals week 16

Thanks again for this post.  Was able to add him in a couple of spots. :thumbup:

 

Evan Silva tweeted about him yesterday...
 

Quote

 

Mike Gesicki looks quietly positioned for a second-half breakout:

* Huge opportunity opening post-Preston Williams ACL tear

* 40+ yards in 3 of last 4

* No. 3 among all TEs in Air Yards since #Dolphins bye

* FitzMagic showing willingness to force it to him up the seam

 

 

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58 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Eight opportunities, not touches.

You could be right, there are fewer mouths to feed in the Detroit backfield so things could change.

But up to this point no Detroit RB has seen five targets in a game. They average just under six targets for their RBs per game. That average has increased to just under eight over the last three games, still no RB seeing five targets.

With a ~75% career catch rate McKissic would need eight targets/game to average five catches.

So to project an average for one back going forward that is higher than their average for all RBs to date seems a bit optimistic. 

Theo Riddick had 80 catches in 2015 while playing 43% of snaps for the Lions.  I see no reason why McKissic can't equal that level of production.  I think McKissic could get 50% of snaps going forward.  Being a 15 touch guy isn't out of the question.

Edited by Don Hutson

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34 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Theo Riddick had 80 catches in 2015 while playing 43% of snaps.  I see no reason why McKissic can't equal that.  I think McKissic might get 50% of snaps going forward.  

I'm not sure if you're serious or are just having fun making me take time to research statements like yours.

In 2015 Jim Bob Copter and Joe Lombardi were calling plays in Detroit. There is a reason those guys are no longer OCs and never became HCs.

Darrell Bevel is calling plays in Detroit now and in 12 years as an OC (Lombardi and Jim Bob have 5 years combined as OC. All in Detroit) the most targets he has ever sent to any RB is 62 to Mewelde Moore back in 2006.

I can see some arguments for why Bevel could change this season. But you have to agree that it would still be a massive outlier in his coaching career. 

I see betting on that outcome, in the face of the evidence as being optimistic.

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1 minute ago, Chaka said:

I'm not sure if you're serious or are just having fun making me take time to research statements like yours.

In 2015 Jim Bob Copter and Joe Lombardi were calling plays in Detroit. There is a reason those guys are no longer OCs and never became HCs.

Darrell Bevel is calling plays in Detroit now and in 12 years as an OC (Lombardi and Jim Bob have 5 years combined as OC. All in Detroit) the most targets he has ever sent to any RB is 62 to Mewelde Moore back in 2006.

I can see some arguments for why Bevel could change this season. But you have to agree that it would still be a massive outlier in his coaching career. 

I see betting on that outcome, in the face of the evidence as being optimistic.

Bevel was calling plays for Russell Wilson in Seattle.  Matt Stafford is nothing similar to Russell Wilson.  Matt Stafford is effective throwing to his running backs and he is immobile.  If MiKissic is on the field, he will be used often as a receiver.

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Just now, Don Hutson said:

Bevel was calling plays for Russell Wilson in Seattle.  Matt Stafford is nothing similar to Russell Wilson.  Matt Stafford is effective throwing to his running backs and he is immobile.  If MiKissic is on the field, he will be used often as a receiver.

Agreed. As I said; I can see the argument.

But I can also see what has happened on the field over the first eight games.

Like I said the best argument in favor of five catches per game for McKissic going forward is the lack of depth at RB in Detroit right now. 

But in almost three games without Kerryon, it hasn't happened yet. 10 targets (a high of 4) 8 receptions (a high of 3).

So, I guess 40 receptions over the next eight games is... possible. Highly optimistic, but possible.

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I'm strapped for WR this week; picked up Russell Gage from Atlanta.  Just hoping to avoid a doughnut....

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3 hours ago, Buck Bradcanon said:

Thanks again for this post.  Was able to add him in a couple of spots. :thumbup:

 

Evan Silva tweeted about him yesterday...
 

 

Thanks. I am hopeful although still not completely sold. Would like to see Gesicki get a TD and have another double digit fantasy game.

But for people like me who is scrambling (OJ Howard owner and then Dissly owner) because of injuries or players who are under performing, he does offer some upward potential for second half.

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Deciding between Gesicki (@IND, BUF) and Doyle (MIA, JAX) for this week and next with Engram out/bye.

I think Doyle has the better match up this week and has two straight home games, but don't know how much Ebron will be a target/opportunity siphon. 

Gesicki seems to have less competition and benefits from there being backups at WR, but Doyle seems more proven and has the TDs so don't know if he's more of a red zone target. 

Any thoughts on these two guys over the next two weeks?

 

ETA: Also just read a reddit post about Ebron meeting up with Reich to discuss his role in the offense. Squeaky wheel sometimes gets the grease, so may just go with a hotter hand in Gesicki and roll the dice. Still interested in viewpoints about these guys, Gesicki just seems way more of a flyer and need the points this week against a guy who could unseat me atop the leaderboard.

Edited by Stompin' Tom Connors

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no love for Josh Reynolds with Cooks out this week?

 

I need to pick up a waiver free agent and have to decide in a PPR between Josh Reynolds and Ted Ginn....

Edited by Sasgaard

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18 minutes ago, Sasgaard said:

no love for Josh Reynolds with Cooks out this week?

 

I need to pick up a waiver free agent and have to decide in a PPR between Josh Reynolds and Ted Ginn....

I picked both up and will be starting one now with AJ out. 

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37 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Deciding between Gesicki (@IND, BUF) and Doyle (MIA, JAX) for this week and next with Engram out/bye.

I think Doyle has the better match up this week and has two straight home games, but don't know how much Ebron will be a target/opportunity siphon. 

Gesicki seems to have less competition and benefits from there being backups at WR, but Doyle seems more proven and has the TDs so don't know if he's more of a red zone target. 

Any thoughts on these two guys over the next two weeks?

 

ETA: Also just read a reddit post about Ebron meeting up with Reich to discuss his role in the offense. Squeaky wheel sometimes gets the grease, so may just go with a hotter hand in Gesicki and roll the dice. Still interested in viewpoints about these guys, Gesicki just seems way more of a flyer and need the points this week against a guy who could unseat me atop the leaderboard.

Gesicki IMO.  Arrow pointed up for sure.

Quote

TEs
Mike Gesicki: Since the start of Week 5, here are the leaders in air yards per game among tight ends: Hunter Henry 87.8, Gerald Everett 76.5, Zach Ertz 74.2, Travis Kelce 65.8, Mark Andrews 64.5, and Mike Gesicki 59.8. For those wondering, Evan Engram sits at 53.0, Darren Waller is at 51.5, and George Kittle is at 51.2. It goes to show you the opportunity that Gesicki’s had over the last month. He’s averaged 5.0 targets per game and has totaled at least 41 yards in 3-of-4 games. He’s still yet to score a touchdown in the NFL, but we’re trending in that direction. His target-floor should only rise with Preston Williams out of the lineup and the Colts have been one of the most giving teams to tight ends. They’ve allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the position, as they’ve allowed seven different tight ends to finish with at least four receptions against them. That provides a solid foundation for a streaming tight end, as evidenced by the nine tight ends that have finished as top-18 options against them. Gesicki belongs in the low-end TE1/high-end TE2 conversation this week.

https://www.fantasypros.com/2019/11/the-primer-week-10-edition-2019-fantasy-football/3/

 

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2 hours ago, loonzilla said:

I'm strapped for WR this week; picked up Russell Gage from Atlanta.  Just hoping to avoid a doughnut....

Same here on the doughnut. I snagged Chester Rogers. Fingers crossed for 4-50 yards out of him.

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Vance McDonald has been popping up on some of my waiver wires.  He is an oasis in the desert dry tight end market.  He is a receiving tight end playing with a quarterback who likes throwing short passes.  If healthy, he has a floor of 10th best tight end rest of season.  His ceiling is number one.

 

Edited by Don Hutson

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25 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Vance McDonald has been popping up on some of my waiver wires.  He is an oasis in the desert dry tight end market.  He is a receiving tight end playing with a quarterback who likes throwing short passes.  If healthy, he has a floor of 10th best tight end rest of season.  His ceiling is number one.

 

You like him better than Hockenson?

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15 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

You like him better than Hockenson?

Definitely.  But I have a serious bias against rookie tight ends so it's hard for me to give Hockenson a serious consideration.  I think Vance is a far safer bet if he is healthy.

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