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Snorkelson

DraftKings week 10

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Don’t really have anything worth sharing yet but let’s fire it up. Good luck to everyone this week, if I can’t win I hope it’s one of you that take my money. 

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Going to be tough to use Cmac in cash at 10.5k. This was the best I could come up with (using in 25cent gpp)

Ryan,Cmac,Henry,M Jones,Ridley,Pascal,Smith,Reynolds,Pitt

I like the front of this but Smith,Reynolds,Pitt seems way to risky for cash. I guess you could go even lower at QB( Jones,Allen,Fitz,Hoyer,Tannehill,Mayfield,Rudolph) to free up $200-$1100 to upgrade WR/TE. I think if you want ant of the Saints too guys you're going to have to pass on Cmac. 18.8k on Cmac/Thomas doesn't leave much to work with

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My gut reaction is how do you not start cash LUs with L.Jackson and CMC?  Then my second thought is how crappy is the rest of the team going to look??  

A couple guys I assume are cheap (haven't looked at stuff) that are increasing their usage are Singletary and Montgomery and they might be viable in cash with their workload the last couple weeks.  Those two might get you CMC and Jackson. 

Seems like all the QBS are priced up now, so I feel like if we are paying, we might as well go to the top and get the stud... 

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20 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

My gut reaction is how do you not start cash LUs with L.Jackson and CMC?  Then my second thought is how crappy is the rest of the team going to look??  

A couple guys I assume are cheap (haven't looked at stuff) that are increasing their usage are Singletary and Montgomery and they might be viable in cash with their workload the last couple weeks.  Those two might get you CMC and Jackson. 

Seems like all the QBS are priced up now, so I feel like if we are paying, we might as well go to the top and get the stud... 

I'm using CMC this week but I think you can save some money on QB this week.  Guys like Daniel Jones, maybe Hoyer, maybe Tannenhill, etc....

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Listening to a pod this morning, and they were saying what my first instinct was - cmc, Singletary, Montgomery, m.thomas, and figure out the rest.  

Not sure L.Jax would fit in that too though.  

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40 minutes ago, eoMMan said:

I'm using CMC this week but I think you can save some money on QB this week.  Guys like Daniel Jones, maybe Hoyer, maybe Tannenhill, etc....

I wrote down Tannehill, especially if Mahomes is a go.  He has barely been below 20pts since starting.  

That allowed me him, m.thomas, and the 3 rbs I listed above.  

R.Gage is a cheap guy I wrote down too- NO sucks vs slot wrs.  

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Looking like Engram will be out for the Giants so if you use min priced(2.5k) Ellison at TE it makes it alot easier to use Jackson/CMC/Thomas. Have this as my 2x lineup now-

Jackson,CMC,Singletary,Thomas,Parker, M Williams,Ellison,Gordon.Cle

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For single slate tonight on DK, Gordon or Ekeler?

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54 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

Gordon

Agree.  I like him in the Captain spot.  He is cheap comparatively.

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1 hour ago, Caesar said:

Agree.  I like him in the Captain spot.  He is cheap comparatively.

Or maybe the Raiders D. lol. Old Man Rivers strikes again early. 

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It's not as entertaining as the Gillcast/Swolecast guys, but I really recommend anybody who listens to pods to give the RG Advanced Sports Analytics pod a listen.  Seems like most of the other pods talk about the same things, but these guys are mostly gpp and are talking about the player correlations and how to try to stack a game.  That's some of the stuff I posted last week and used about what WRs correlate best with QBs for a stack, and if there are WRs that correlate with each other (like Lockett+Metcalf last week).  

Couple quick ones off the top of my head:  

AZ/TB will be popular, but Evans+Godwin don't correlate at all with each other, and Evans correlates a lot more with Winston's big games than Godwin does - so double stacking those guys doesn't make much sense.  So if you like that game and are going to stack it, they suggested either doing Winston + Evans with an AZ runback,  or do K.Murray + options with either Evans or Godwin as a runback.  

Another idea that I really liked was using L.Jax naked with another stack that you don't like the Qbs for.  Their example was that DJ Moore and Samuels correlate well together, but K.Allen doesn't have gpp ceiling.  So maybe do something like L.Jackson + Moore/Samuel/D.Adams as a way to differentiate in a gpp.   If you use Jackson + M.Brown you are assuming that Cinci is pushing back a little, so you probably would want to throw in somebody like Boyd.  

 

Just think this is a lot of good info, and probably the only pod I have heard that breaks stuff down for gpps quite like this, but I think is hugely important for building gpp lineups.  

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23 hours ago, eoMMan said:

For single slate tonight on DK, Gordon or Ekeler?

I had a really nice finish with this lineup. Should have entered it in more contests:

Gordon CPT, Raiders, Allen, Jacobs, Rivers, M.Williams.

Just needed to swap out Williams for Ekeler for a first place finish. Needed both Gordon and Ekeler,  instead of one or the other. So close. 

Edited by TwinTurbo
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6 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

It's not as entertaining as the Gillcast/Swolecast guys, but I really recommend anybody who listens to pods to give the RG Advanced Sports Analytics pod a listen.  Seems like most of the other pods talk about the same things, but these guys are mostly gpp and are talking about the player correlations and how to try to stack a game.  That's some of the stuff I posted last week and used about what WRs correlate best with QBs for a stack, and if there are WRs that correlate with each other (like Lockett+Metcalf last week).  

Couple quick ones off the top of my head:  

AZ/TB will be popular, but Evans+Godwin don't correlate at all with each other, and Evans correlates a lot more with Winston's big games than Godwin does - so double stacking those guys doesn't make much sense.  So if you like that game and are going to stack it, they suggested either doing Winston + Evans with an AZ runback,  or do K.Murray + options with either Evans or Godwin as a runback.  

Another idea that I really liked was using L.Jax naked with another stack that you don't like the Qbs for.  Their example was that DJ Moore and Samuels correlate well together, but K.Allen doesn't have gpp ceiling.  So maybe do something like L.Jackson + Moore/Samuel/D.Adams as a way to differentiate in a gpp.   If you use Jackson + M.Brown you are assuming that Cinci is pushing back a little, so you probably would want to throw in somebody like Boyd.  

 

Just think this is a lot of good info, and probably the only pod I have heard that breaks stuff down for gpps quite like this, but I think is hugely important for building gpp lineups.  

The correlation aspect is a key variable, but it doesn't always hold true because the sample sizes are far too small. For example, Marvin Jones Jr. and Golladay had a negative correlation until they didn't against the Raiders. I missed out on much bigger profits by not including both in my Stafford stacks and opting for Hockensen instead. 

I agree Evans + Godwin has not panned out so far, but it totally could. I so want to go with WR + Howard instead given the TE matchup, but the TE position has done less than nothing so far in this Arians' offense. That might change against the Cardinals bottom ranked TE defense this week, but the chances Howard and Brate do nothing again seem much higher than Evans + Godwin going off with 20 combined targets. Even Perriman caught a janky TD last game off a deflection from an ill advised Winston pass to the endzone. Anything is possible with this group. 

For L.Jackson, I'll definitely have a few lineups with him, but it would seem both he and CMac are potential fades in gpp given the price and ownership levels and salary saver scrubs you'll need to force into the lineup to afford both. 

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33 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

The correlation aspect is a key variable, but it doesn't always hold true because the sample sizes are far too small. For example, Marvin Jones Jr. and Golladay had a negative correlation until they didn't against the Raiders. I missed out on much bigger profits by not including both in my Stafford stacks and opting for Hockensen instead. 

I agree Evans + Godwin has not panned out so far, but it totally could. I so want to go with WR + Howard instead given the TE matchup, but the TE position has done less than nothing so far in this Arians' offense. That might change against the Cardinals bottom ranked TE defense this week, but the chances Howard and Brate do nothing again seem much higher than Evans + Godwin going off with 20 combined targets. Even Perriman caught a janky TD last game off a deflection from an ill advised Winston pass to the endzone. Anything is possible with this group. 

For L.Jackson, I'll definitely have a few lineups with him, but it would seem both he and CMac are potential fades in gpp given the price and ownership levels and salary saver scrubs you'll need to force into the lineup to afford both. 

Agree with all of this, and I think a bit has to do with how many LUs you are making.  If I am just doing 1-2 LUs I would probably try the more likely combo to go off.  If I am doing 40 total lineups, and 10-15 are going to be a TB stack, then yeah - 1 or 2 might be Evans + Godwin.   

Just saying it's interesting, and I thought it was worth pointing out b/c just about all the other pods are only talking targets, DVOA, and other stuff.   This correlation between specific players on a team is not stats I see on any free stuff that I've come across, but is probably an important piece to the puzzle.  

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16 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Agree with all of this, and I think a bit has to do with how many LUs you are making.  If I am just doing 1-2 LUs I would probably try the more likely combo to go off.  If I am doing 40 total lineups, and 10-15 are going to be a TB stack, then yeah - 1 or 2 might be Evans + Godwin.   

Just saying it's interesting, and I thought it was worth pointing out b/c just about all the other pods are only talking targets, DVOA, and other stuff.   This correlation between specific players on a team is not stats I see on any free stuff that I've come across, but is probably an important piece to the puzzle.  

Yeah I agree with this. It's just for Evans and Godwin, it's been weird this season. Evans has been held in check by a couple of teams with man coverage, and it's likely they match Peterson on him but he got absolutely smoked by E.Sanders and even Pettis in the 49ers game. Earlier in the season, Arizona played more zone down their top 2 CBs, but maybe that's changed now. Seahawks are one of the better zone defenses in the league and couldn't stop the Bucs.  

If you do have to pick one, Godwin probably makes more sense if you think Peterson will bounce back this week in coverage. He's defended Evans well in the past. 

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I came up with a cash lineup with McCaffrey and Thomas that I don't feel too bad about:

QB L. Jackson

RB C. McCaffrey

RB R. Jones II

WR M. Thomas

WR C. Samuel

WR A.J. Brown

TE R. Ellison

FLEX D. Singletary

DST Browns

We shall see how it pans out, but it doesn't look terrible.

 

 

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1 hour ago, snellman said:

I came up with a cash lineup with McCaffrey and Thomas that I don't feel too bad about:

QB L. Jackson

RB C. McCaffrey

RB R. Jones II

WR M. Thomas

WR C. Samuel

WR A.J. Brown

TE R. Ellison

FLEX D. Singletary

DST Browns

We shall see how it pans out, but it doesn't look terrible.

 

 

I think this is going to be a very popular construction, and similar to what I had in which makes me nervous if it's a highly popular build/players.  

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

I think this is going to be a very popular construction, and similar to what I had in which makes me nervous if it's a highly popular build/players.  

I agree, I am running 2 cash lineups this week differentiating a bit in QB, WR, and TE.  I also had enough cap left in my other lineup to put the Bears D in with Stafford out today.  The biggest advantage with a cash lineup is you only have to finish better than 50% of the field so hopefully only 49% are using this lineup.

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For the big bucks:

Brees

David Johnson

Robert Jones II

Tyreek Hill

Michael Thomas

Pascal

Jonnu

Montgomery

Bears

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It was a shootout and the Titans won but AJ Brown wanted no part of it. I had so many Chiefs stacks with him on the other side. 

And Cooper Kupp...

Edited by TwinTurbo

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My Monday night showdown strategy is to put the guy in the captain spot who can hurt me the most in season long.

This week, its T. Coleman.  

Anybody else use this strategy?

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6 hours ago, Caesar said:

My Monday night showdown strategy is to put the guy in the captain spot who can hurt me the most in season long.

This week, its T. Coleman.  

Anybody else use this strategy?

I like it, so you're using DFS as a hedge against season long. It's Russell Wilson/Lockett for me. 

Who do you actually like in the CPT spot tonight?

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3 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

I like it, so you're using DFS as a hedge against season long. It's Russell Wilson/Lockett for me. 

Who do you actually like in the CPT spot tonight?

I have mainly Wilson or Coleman.  I do have a bit of Carson sprinkled in, but my main Captain that I have entered in the single entry contest is Coleman.

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1 hour ago, TwinTurbo said:

I like it, so you're using DFS as a hedge against season long. It's Russell Wilson/Lockett for me. 

Who do you actually like in the CPT spot tonight?

I used Breida in the other one i entered. 

 

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6 hours ago, Caesar said:

I used Breida in the other one i entered. 

 

I had a really good night on DK winning one contest. I will post the result later but it was my best day so far this season. 

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8 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

I had a really good night on DK winning one contest. I will post the result later but it was my best day so far this season. 

That's great.  looking forward to seeing what you had.  I did not do so well, but I didn't put too much into it.  I did end up locking down $2500 in the FFPC Main, so there's that.

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Sorry for the drive-by, but I just have to vent.  I was completely wiped out this week because I played Brees at QB.  Struggled with the QB position all week, but in the end settled on building around Brees - Thomas stack.   Brees' dud was a shocker, but it all would have been redeemed if that last second garbage time throw to Michael Thomas had gone just 1/2 yard further, into the endzone.  Tilting.

My Cash LU  (4 RBs allowed on FantDraft)   Brees - Damien Williams /  D. Montgomery -   Michael Thomas /  Golden Tate - Gesicki - Jaylen Samuels / CMc - Steelers D  went for 153.98 

Too bad the cash lines in the 100-entry 50/50s I entered  were  154.22, 154.74, 154.08, 154.22, 154.22   -- excruciating

 

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