Iowa Caucus Only - where would you put your money? (1 Viewer)

These are the current rates on Predictit. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5241/Who-will-win-the-2020-Iowa-Democratic-caucuses

You buy a position, and can trade out at any time, with the winner (in this case most delegates from Iowa) paying out $1.00/share.

A few weeks ago, I bought Buttigieg at $0.22/share, and traded out this weekend at $0.40/share.  His high price on Saturday night was $0.45, so I did not sell at the peak, but feel good about selling when I did.

If you click on the link, you can see the trends - Warren has been steadily dropping since early October, when her peak was $0.63.  Sanders and Buttigieg have been slowly rising, with Pete seeing a spike after the Iowa poll result on Saturday.  Biden has been slowly dropping, but not nearly as much as Warren - more of a slow steady slight decline.

For me, this is still a 4-way race, with maybe Warren and Buttigieg having an advantage due in large part to their ground game presence in Iowa.  I still like Pete to win Iowa, but his price feels a little high for me at this stage - hence selling my position.

Where do you guys see value - either as undervalued price that should rise, or who do you like to win Iowa (in which case that candidate is obviously undervalued)?

Where would you set some price ranges? 

For me, I think Warren is undervalued - I think she has taken some hits as a front-runner, but she should bounce back if she can find her footing on the Medicare For All issue.  I am inclined to invest in her at her current price - despite, or maybe because of, her steady fall over the last 40 days.

Klobuchar has upside potential - but I think she needs a big moment in the debate this week.  I might put a little on her to see if she can get a bounce.

Pete - still my favorite to win Iowa - but I'll probably wait for his price to drop a little.  

I am staying away from Biden and Sanders - both seem to have low ceilings to me.

I'm a lousy gambler, so why not take the best odds?

Kal El said:

I'm a lousy gambler, so why not take the best odds?

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Well, gambling is about finding value.

The best "odds" can mean two things in this context - longest odds - being pick someone, say Booker, at $0.01 and hope it pays off.  

Or the best could mean, take the favorite and run.

I would not expect any of the $0.01 to win - but its possible 1 of them could emerge to the $0.03 - 0.05 range - and that would be good value.  Of that group - maybe Harris has a chance, given that she is putting most of her eggs into the Iowa basket.

I do think Pete will ultimately win Iowa (assuming nothing major comes out in the next 3 months) - but given how close it is right now with Buttigieg, Warren, Sanders, and Biden - his current price feels over-inflated.  If you assume these are the 4 with the only chance to win Iowa, I would expect pricing around $0.25 - with maybe Pete and Warren around $0.30.  I don't expect any of the candidates to pull away as a clear favorite - so I don't see much room for a favorite to move above $0.40 for the next couple of months anyway - so I am thinking I can still get Pete at about the same price he is now, well into 2020.

FWIW: 
“Historically, when two or more people are vying for the nomination, the leader will change in the final weeks before the caucuses,” said Des Moines Register pollster Ann Selzer, whose surveys and methods are viewed as the gold standard in the Hawkeye State.

“People are excited about the idea of a leader in the race and there’s an urge for a true front-runner to rise to the top, but that’s not how it works with a field like this.”

Mystery Achiever said:

FWIW: 
“Historically, when two or more people are vying for the nomination, the leader will change in the final weeks before the caucuses,” said Des Moines Register pollster Ann Selzer, whose surveys and methods are viewed as the gold standard in the Hawkeye State.

“People are excited about the idea of a leader in the race and there’s an urge for a true front-runner to rise to the top, but that’s not how it works with a field like this.”

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I buy this completely.  

And, as a Pete supporter, I do worry that he is making his move too soon.  (I don't think its his choice to jump out to a lead, I think he would prefer to be stalking just off the pace).  But, with the lead comes more scrutiny, and with more scrutiny comes more doubts - that not Pete-specific, that is just the nature of being the focus.  See what has happened to Warren since she became the "front-runner" before the last debate.  Pete will definitely come back to the field - this is why I think he is over-priced now. 

Having said that, there are underlying reasons to think Pete can, and will, win Iowa.  Pete's main competitor at this stage is not Warren - its Biden.  Pete has been more aggressive in Iowa than Biden, and it shows in both the polls, but importantly the ground game.  So, if Pete becomes the preferred moderate candidate - then it comes down to Pete v. Warren and Sanders.  Warren is also well-organized in Iowa, and Bernie has the experience of 2016.  But, where I give Pete the edge on Caucus night is in the far corners of the state - where I think Pete has a bigger presence and his story resonates more - I think Pete will be viable in more precincts than Warren or Sanders, and will be competitive enough in the bigger cities.  So, Pete will win delegates in areas where Warren and Sanders could get shut out.

Mayor Pete

Warren is going to get rolled in Midwest and Rust-belt states.  

For the odds there I'd go Biden.

knowledge dropper said:

Mayor Pete

Warren is going to get rolled in Midwest and Rust-belt states.  

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I think so.   Pete has a much better chance.

Warren is undervalued.  I’d probably bet on her.  I still think Pete will win.

The General said:

For the odds there I'd go Biden.

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I was thinking the same.  Might even add a little Warren too.  

Alex P Keaton said:

Warren is undervalued.  I’d probably bet on her.  I still think Pete will win.

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I have a buy order in on Warren at $0.21

I might pull the trigger at $0.22 if there are no takers ...

I am going to wait for Pete to drop into the low $0.30s before re-buying into that position.

The idea of gambling on elections is bizarre to me.  It's looking like Pete is trending in the right direction at the right time for Iowa, but if we're strictly talking about getting value on bets, I think Warren and Biden look attractive.  If I were betting I would probably bet on Pete with a hedge on Warren and/or Biden.

I don't see Bernie's ceiling rising any higher than it is.

Sinn Fein said:

I have a buy order in on Warren at $0.21

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Gets notice that order accepted

Finds out its only for 9 of the 100 shares ordered. 

I'd probably do some Mayor Pete and Biden.  I don't think Iowa is far left enough for Warren or Sanders to win the caucus with both still in the race splitting that vote.  I'm not sure how the caucus rules work though, I know if a certain threshold isn't met then supporters of some candidates can then shift to other "viable" ones.  I doubt either of the two is so low that happens, but I'd have to study that before putting cash on it.

knowledge dropper said:

Mayor Pete

Warren is going to get rolled in Midwest and Rust-belt states.  

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Can't wait for Trump to start on a gay guy with that name.  Will be right up there with when he made fun of that reporter.

Leroy Hoard said:

Can't wait for Trump to start on a gay guy with that name.  Will be right up there with when he made fun of that reporter.

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I can’t imagine Trump would do that.  

knowledge dropper said:

I can’t imagine Trump would do that.  

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Yes, way too classy to go there.

Klobuchar is the only one with a lot of room to move in the short term. That price seems high for Pete. Biden is underpriced.