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2019 Rookie Draft Do Over (1 Viewer)

Kevrunner

Footballguy
12 Team - PPR, 1QB, Non-IDP.  Curious to see other opinions if the rookie draft was held today.  The #1 pick is pretty easy, but the rest of the draft, I’m sure will vary considerably.

1.  Jacobs

2.  Miles Sanders

3.  AJ Brown

4.  Metcalf

5.  N’Keal Harry

6.  Marquis Brown

7.  Terry McLaurin

8.  Deebo Samuel

9.  David Montgomery 

10. Singletary

11. Kyler Murray

12. Hockenson 

 
12 Team - PPR, 1QB, Non-IDP.  Curious to see other opinions if the rookie draft was held today.  The #1 pick is pretty easy, but the rest of the draft, I’m sure will vary considerably.

1.  Jacobs

2.  Miles Sanders

3.  AJ Brown

4.  Metcalf

5.  N’Keal Harry

6.  Marquis Brown

7.  Terry McLaurin

8.  Deebo Samuel

9.  David Montgomery 

10. Singletary

11. Kyler Murray

12. Hockenson 
Sanders has done nothing to justify that spot. I'd probably say the same for AJ Brown. The dynasty community is in the bag for those two though so their value is completely insulated. 

Also no justification for Hockenson over Fant IMO. Hockenson was wildly overrated pre-draft and still is, even though he's done nothing since week 1. I don't hold it against him that much because he's a TE and year 1 production isn't guaranteed, but I still think he will disappoint owners in the long run. 

I've said enough negative things about Montgomery on these forums, but I truly think he's a JAG. Wouldn't have him top 12. 

 
Singletary way too low. 

Already getting 20 carry games and is at 5.8 a carry (think where McCoy was 3.2 and where Gore is 3.9 for a bullseye comparison). Seeing plenty of snaps in the passing game also. With more ceiling available.

I would see no reason to trade him for Sanders or Monty currently.

 
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12 Team - PPR, 1QB, Non-IDP.  Curious to see other opinions if the rookie draft was held today.  The #1 pick is pretty easy, but the rest of the draft, I’m sure will vary considerably.

1.  Jacobs

2.  Miles Sanders

3.  AJ Brown

4.  Metcalf

5.  N’Keal Harry

6.  Marquis Brown

7.  Terry McLaurin

8.  Deebo Samuel

9.  David Montgomery 

10. Singletary

11. Kyler Murray

12. Hockenson 
Not sure why you have Sanders at #2.

1. Jacobs

2. Deebo Samuel

3. D K Metcalf

4. Marquise Brown

5. Terry McLaurin

6. Devin Singletary

7. David Montgomery

8. Miles Sanders

9. Kyler Murray

10. A J Brown

11. N'Keal Harry

12. Tie Noah Fant & Hockenson

14. Diontate Johnson

15. MeCole Hardman

16. Darius Slayton

17. Irv Smith

18. Preston Wilson

19.  Tony Pollard

20. Dawson Knox

21. Alexander Mattison

 
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Singletary way too low. 

Already getting 20 carry games and is at 5.8 a carry (think where McCoy was 3.2 and where Gore is 3.9 for a bullseye comparison). Seeing plenty of snaps in the passing game also. With more ceiling available.

I would see no reason to trade him for Sanders or Monty currently.
Trying not to be a homer when I say this, but I think I would take Singletary in the top 5.  Maybe top 3.  
Deebo is a stud.  I’d move him up.  
And Montgomery is not in my 1st round. 

 
Not sure why you have Sanders at #2.

1. Jacobs

2. Deebo Samuel

3. D K Metcalf

4. Marquise Brown

5. Terry McLaurin

6. Devin Singletary

7. David Montgomery

8. Miles Sanders

9. Kyler Murray

10. A J Brown

11. N'Keal Harry

12. Tie Noah Fant & Hockenson

14. Diontate Johnson

15. MeCole Hardman

16. Darius Slayton

17. Irv Smith

18. Preston Wilson

19.  Tony Pollard

20. Dawson Knox

21. Alexander Mattison
Not getting the Montgomery love at all.

 
Not sure why you have Sanders at #2.

1. Jacobs

2. Deebo Samuel

3. D K Metcalf

4. Marquise Brown

5. Terry McLaurin

6. Devin Singletary

7. David Montgomery

8. Miles Sanders

9. Kyler Murray

10. A J Brown

11. N'Keal Harry

12. Tie Noah Fant & Hockenson

14. Diontate Johnson

15. MeCole Hardman

16. Darius Slayton

17. Irv Smith

18. Preston Wilson

19.  Tony Pollard

20. Dawson Knox

21. Alexander Mattison
It's largely perception, what we've seen ourselves, but imo AJ Brown is too low. Deebo and DK might be better, but not by much.  It's possible to put players 2-10 in one tier, 11-15 probably in tier 3, then the others. Preston Williams belongs in 3 or maybe 2. 

 
JohnnyU said:
Not sure why you have Sanders at #2.

1. Jacobs

2. Deebo Samuel

3. D K Metcalf

4. Marquise Brown

5. Terry McLaurin

6. Devin Singletary

7. David Montgomery

8. Miles Sanders

9. Kyler Murray

10. A J Brown

11. N'Keal Harry

12. Tie Noah Fant & Hockenson

14. Diontate Johnson

15. MeCole Hardman

16. Darius Slayton

17. Irv Smith

18. Preston Wilson

19.  Tony Pollard

20. Dawson Knox

21. Alexander Mattison
Thanks for your list, I like Sanders, he has produced on limited touches, looks like a future 3 down back and should only get more opportunities in the future. I wouldn’t trade Sanders straight up for any of the other RBs (excluding Jacobs).  Sanders has out produced Singletary and it we go by  points per touch, he is crushing Montgomery.  I guess I could have ranked a couple WRs ahead of Sanders, but I honestly wouldn’t trade any rookie WR straight up for Sanders.

 
Thanks for your list, I like Sanders, he has produced on limited touches, looks like a future 3 down back and should only get more opportunities in the future. I wouldn’t trade Sanders straight up for any of the other RBs (excluding Jacobs).  Sanders has out produced Singletary and it we go by  points per touch, he is crushing Montgomery.  I guess I could have ranked a couple WRs ahead of Sanders, but I honestly wouldn’t trade any rookie WR straight up for Sanders.
I just wish that Sanders was on a different team.  Pederson seems to strongly prefer a committee backfield.  But if Sanders plays lights out, it'll be tough to not feature him.  And after a disappointing 2019, Pederson might play things less conservatively in 2020.

 
fruity pebbles said:
Not getting the Montgomery love at all.
He's probably blaming the offensive line for his woes.  Any running back looks bad when running behind a bottom 5 offensive line.

 
FreshiZ said:
Sanders too high for me and where's the Unicorn?
Glad I wasn't the one to point this one out.  He is the best WR in the draft!!!!

Anyways on topic I think you're overall pretty close.  A do over implies hindsight obviously and surprise types to elevate their value.  I think the clearest example of that is Terry McLaurin.  I honestly didn't remember ranking him, but checking my last rankings, apparently I had him at #28, he's way above that now.  

It begins to throw wrinkles in ranks once QB's go in so I'm just going to leave them out.  But I'd say the top12 from the NFL draft up until now goes like this: 

Josh Jacobs, AJ Brown, Metcalf, Singletary, McLaurin, Sanders, Preston Williams, Deebo, Harry, Montgomery, Marquise Brown, Hockenson

They've all done something, very clear gap between the top5 and the rest of the list I think.  Some flashes for the rest and RB is usually more valuable than WR.  I don't particularly like any of these guys long term though as situation is pretty bad for most (other than Jacobs, which is why he gets the 1.01). 

Don't believe in QB change for AJ Brown soon, Russ is good for Metcalf, Singletary won't last IMO, don't like Haskins very much (probably can still support McLaurin though), Pederson throws a wrench in Sanders overall outlook, Preston Williams soon to have a QB change, Deebo looks solid, Harry without Brady might be a worry, Montgomery isn't that good, Brown might be the most steady if Lamar keeps doing what he is doing, Hockenson has had a lot of growing pains.

Love some of the players themselves, and I think there will be buy low windows on almost all of them in the future.  But there are a lot of long term concerns there for the overall group.  

 
 Sanders has out produced Singletary   
???   :no:

Sanders 6.14 yards per touch. 0.016 tds per touch.

Singletary 6.07 yards per touch. 0.030 tds per touch.

Singletary scores more per touch. 79/101=0.782 vs. 88/126=0.698

In college Sanders has 12 total TDs in 3 years and Singletary had 67! His nose for the end zone is no joke.

 
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In college Sanders has 12 total TDs in 3 years and Singletary had 67! His nose for the end zone is no joke.
Miles Sanders went to Penn State.  Devin Singletary went to Florida Atlantic.  It was real impressive when the Florida Atlantic Owls faced the Rice Owls and Singletary had 3 touchdowns.  There can be only one alpha owl.  Hoo Hoooooo!

 
We were totally right about this class.  Very deep, without any major surefire studs at the top. 
I'm quite happy with this class. Trading away my colemans, marlons, big Mikes and Jimmy G's of the world has given me great WR 2/3 depth and Josh Jacobs (and Kyler Murray).

Like you said, not any super studs but a good foundation building draft for sure.

 
Miles Sanders went to Penn State.  Devin Singletary went to Florida Atlantic.  It was real impressive when the Florida Atlantic Owls faced the Rice Owls and Singletary had 3 touchdowns.  There can be only one alpha owl.  Hoo Hoooooo!
Sure, but you can only play against what they put in front of you. And he is outpacing Sanders in the NFL. Ftr, 68 TDs in 3 years is kingly. 

 
???   :no:

Sanders 6.14 yards per touch. 0.016 tds per touch.

Singletary 6.07 yards per touch. 0.030 tds per touch.

Singletary scores more per touch. 79/101=0.782 vs. 88/126=0.698

In college Sanders has 12 total TDs in 3 years and Singletary had 67! His nose for the end zone is no joke.
I didn’t use the term per touch regarding Singletary, I like Singletary, just like Sanders a little more.  I said Sanders has “out produced” Singletary.  I used the term “per touch” when talking about Montgomery.  Go back and reread the quote that you are referencing.  If Singletary has outscored Sanders in your league , then I can understand you calling me out instead of just giving your opinion.  If everyone agreed on a player’s value, there would rarely be any trades in fantasy football. 

 
Just looking at the WRs, here is how they rank by my formulaic WR projections (which is a calculation that draws on historical data, based only on draft pick and rookie year something-like-VBD):

275    Marquise Brown
186    Deebo Samuel
138    Terry McLaurin
131    A.J. Brown
123    D.K. Metcalf
106    N'Keal Harry
75    Mecole Hardman
74    JJ Arcega-Whiteside
73    Parris Campbell
71    Andy Isabella
70    Diontae Johnson
69    Jalen Hurd

Where the number is projected career VBD for 2020 onwards.

Marquise Brown is easily the top WR, since he was the earliest drafted and is close behind McLaurin in rookie VBD.

Deebo was the 3rd WR drafted and is 3rd in rookie VBD.

McLaurin has had the best rookie year of the bunch, and that is good enough to overcome his 3rd round draft slot compared to everyone else.

College teammates AJ Brown & Metcalf are close together in rookie production (with a slight edge for Metcalf) and had similar draft position (with Brown going earlier); the formula gives the slight edge to Brown.

Everyone else in this list is rated purely based on draft position, since they don't have enough rookie production to move the needle. Harry's lack of production is costly enough to make him fall behind all 5 of the guys who do have shown something this season.

Darius Slayton (a 5th rounder) and Preston Williams (a UDFA) are the only two other rookie WRs with positive VBD this season, but their lack of draft pedigree keeps them out of this top 12 list.

 
Both Sanders and Singletary have passed the eye test.  I'm excited about drafting either next year and I hope that their adps aren't too high.  One nice thing about Sanders is how good he has been at receiving.  He has 27 receptions and is averaging 12.5 yards per reception and he has done that in a part time role.  And his yards per reception isn't because of one 90 yard catch.  He has averaged more than 10 yards per catch in 5 of the 10 games that he has a reception.  So he looks like he could have the potential to get 70+ receptions next year if Pederson decides to give him a high snap percentage.

 
Both Sanders and Singletary have passed the eye test.  I'm excited about drafting either next year and I hope that their adps aren't too high.  One nice thing about Sanders is how good he has been at receiving.  He has 27 receptions and is averaging 12.5 yards per reception and he has done that in a part time role.  And his yards per reception isn't because of one 90 yard catch.  He has averaged more than 10 yards per catch in 5 of the 10 games that he has a reception.  So he looks like he could have the potential to get 70+ receptions next year if Pederson decides to give him a high snap percentage.
Yeah, I give Sanders the nod over Singletary solely on the receptions.  Singletary is having a great year, his yards per carry, really impressive.  I messed up having Montgomery listed ahead of Singletary, no way I’m drafting Montgomery ahead of him today, since I don’t own Singletary, I didn’t realize he has been running the ball that productively.

 
And here's how the TEs slot in among the WRs, using my formulaic TE ratings:

296    TJ Hockenson
275    Marquise Brown
213    Noah Fant
186    Deebo Samuel
138    Terry McLaurin
131    A.J. Brown
123    D.K. Metcalf
119    Irv Smith
106    N'Keal Harry
75    Mecole Hardman
74    JJ Arcega-Whiteside
73    Parris Campbell
71    Andy Isabella
70    Diontae Johnson
69    Jalen Hurd

These 3 have mostly maintained their preseason value, with Irv Smith getting a bit of a bump due to pretty good efficiency numbers so far this year.

 
People sure love Metcalf.
Metcalf has grown on me as the season has gone on. He is in perhaps the perfect situation for his skill set. Route-running be darned he is just too big and fast for corners to handle. Great article by Waldman this week pointing out his errors with hand position which is not providing a good catch point. If Metcalf can correct that (he seems like a diligent worker) the sky is the limit with Wilson at helm.

 
1. JoshJacobs - Better than I thought as an all around back.

2. AJ Brown - LOVE this guys skillset. Can win short or long, strong hands, YAC monster. Future stud.

3. Terry McLaurin - Washington is a concern but he has flashed enough to put him here IMO.

4. D K Metcalf - Perfect fit for his monster skillset. Needs to improve certain techniques but seems like a worker bee.

5. Marquise Brown - He has got the speed and with Lamar’s scrambling ability he will continue to get chances to make big plays.

6. Deebo Samuel - Concern here is once everyone is healthy will he be leaned on as much (Kittle, Sanders, Hurd)

7. N’Keal Harry - If he can stay on the field I think he has a chance to move up this list by end of year.

8. Kyler Murray - A better passer than Lamar was during his rookie season. Could see a similar leap next season.

9. Devin Singletary - I project Frank Gore will retire in the next 5 years. Then the backfield is Devin’s to be had!

10. Miles Sanders - I didn’t love him coming out but he has showed a lot of ability. Hate how Philly RBBC’s however.

 
Are we still holding out hope for JJAW to "get it"? I have him in 2 leagues and can keep him basically for free, so I'll likely hang on to see if the light comes on in 2020.

 
This thread is telling me Mecole Hardman is undervalued. He's played limited snaps and was considered a raw rookie and produced 450/5. I think its unlikely Watkins is back next year with his 21 mil cap number and Demarcus is a FA. He's got a good chance of being the WR2 for Mahomes very soon. 

 
This thread is telling me Mecole Hardman is undervalued. He's played limited snaps and was considered a raw rookie and produced 450/5. I think its unlikely Watkins is back next year with his 21 mil cap number and Demarcus is a FA. He's got a good chance of being the WR2 for Mahomes very soon. 
I like Hardman also, just not a 1st round pick for me, if I owned Tyreek, I surely would have grabbed him in the back half of the 1st round earlier this year,  but I wouldn’t do it today.   I wouldn’t let Hardman get past me in the 2nd round, if it’s the 2.04 or later.

 
Stating the obvious here, but much will depend on how these players continue to develop and whether or not they can translate their flashes to a larger workload. The number of guys capable of showing glimmers of talent in spot duty is a lot larger than the number of guys who can do it consistently over multiple seasons.

I posted my 2019 rookie rankings in the spring.

I think my takes on Jacobs, Deebo, and Montgomery have aged pretty well. "They are who we thought they were!" Always felt Deebo was a little underrated when you looked at the draft slot, game tape, and athletic traits. Had he gone five picks higher in the NFL draft and been a "first round talent", he probably wouldn't have been available so deep in rookie drafts (he often fell to the 10-12 range). His rookie year has played out almost exactly how I predicted. Montgomery was going very high for a guy with some JAG red flags. The worst fears have been confirmed so far. No explosion. Volume-dependent. Still early in his career, but it's not looking good so far.

I also think I also had a pretty good take on Marquise Brown. We're seeing the good (explosive big plays) and the bad (constant nagging injuries). Still remains to be seen whether he's DeSean Jackson/TY Hilton or Will Fuller (talented, but always hurt). At least we know he can play.

In hindsight, it looks like I underrated Metcalf, Singletary, Hardman and especially McLaurin. I'll stand by what I said earlier in this post though: There's a leap from "talented prospect who flashes in spot duty" and "reliable multi-year starter", and not all of these guys will make the jump (that also applies to Sanders, Deebo, Hollywood, and others). We'll look back on this thread in a couple years and see that a few of these guys have fallen by the wayside. It's inevitable. 

Beyond that, I like what I've seen from Knox. I had to decide between Warring and Knox in a lot of drafts, and usually defaulted towards Warring due to draft slot, scouting reports, and a lack of tape on Knox. I think I got it wrong though and if I could do it over I'd have Knox higher.    

 
Jacobs

Metcalf

Marquise Brown

Deebo

AJ Brown

McLaurin

Singletary

Kyler Murray

Sanders

JJAW

Unicorn

Montgomery

Henderson

Slayton

Fant

Harry

Hockenson

Hardman

 
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Still a complete mess after Jacobs.  I would have Metcalf second right now, but have always rated him highly (going to regret taking Harry over him).  Debo and Hollywood Brown the other biggest movers.  JJAW and Isabella are off the radar.

 
Stating the obvious here, but much will depend on how these players continue to develop and whether or not they can translate their flashes to a larger workload. The number of guys capable of showing glimmers of talent in spot duty is a lot larger than the number of guys who can do it consistently over multiple seasons.

I posted my 2019 rookie rankings in the spring.

I think my takes on Jacobs, Deebo, and Montgomery have aged pretty well. "They are who we thought they were!" Always felt Deebo was a little underrated when you looked at the draft slot, game tape, and athletic traits. Had he gone five picks higher in the NFL draft and been a "first round talent", he probably wouldn't have been available so deep in rookie drafts (he often fell to the 10-12 range). His rookie year has played out almost exactly how I predicted. Montgomery was going very high for a guy with some JAG red flags. The worst fears have been confirmed so far. No explosion. Volume-dependent. Still early in his career, but it's not looking good so far.

I also think I also had a pretty good take on Marquise Brown. We're seeing the good (explosive big plays) and the bad (constant nagging injuries). Still remains to be seen whether he's DeSean Jackson/TY Hilton or Will Fuller (talented, but always hurt). At least we know he can play.

In hindsight, it looks like I underrated Metcalf, Singletary, Hardman and especially McLaurin. I'll stand by what I said earlier in this post though: There's a leap from "talented prospect who flashes in spot duty" and "reliable multi-year starter", and not all of these guys will make the jump (that also applies to Sanders, Deebo, Hollywood, and others). We'll look back on this thread in a couple years and see that a few of these guys have fallen by the wayside. It's inevitable. 

Beyond that, I like what I've seen from Knox. I had to decide between Warring and Knox in a lot of drafts, and usually defaulted towards Warring due to draft slot, scouting reports, and a lack of tape on Knox. I think I got it wrong though and if I could do it over I'd have Knox higher.    
Looking back I like your initial rookie rankings, great job.

 
My post-draft rankings were here; today I think I'd rank them something like this:

1 RB Josh Jacobs
2 WR Marquise Brown
3 WR Terry McLaurin
4 QB Kyler Murray
5 TE TJ Hockenson
6 WR Deebo Samuel
7 WR AJ Brown
8 RB Miles Sanders
9 TE Noah Fant
10 WR DK Metcalf
11 RB David Montgomery
12 RB Devin Singletary
13 WR N'Keal Harry
14 WR Diontae Johnson
15 WR Mecole Hardman
16 TE Irv Smith
17 WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside
18 RB Darrell Henderson
19 WR Parris Campbell
20 WR Andy Isabella
21 WR Preston Williams
22 WR Darius Slayton
23 RB Damien Harris
24 RB Bryce Love

 
Are we still holding out hope for JJAW to "get it"? I have him in 2 leagues and can keep him basically for free, so I'll likely hang on to see if the light comes on in 2020.
I’m betting JJAW comes through I’m not concerned at all. It’s his rookie season and not too many WRs produce at a high level during their rookie season. We’re becoming a little spoiled when it comes to rookies in general producing at a high level. That JJAW that showed flashes during the preseason is going explode but I’m not sure if Wentz is the answer for that team. We’ll see I guess.

Tex

 
My post-draft rankings were here; today I think I'd rank them something like this:

1 RB Josh Jacobs
2 WR Marquise Brown
3 WR Terry McLaurin
4 QB Kyler Murray
5 TE TJ Hockenson
6 WR Deebo Samuel
7 WR AJ Brown
8 RB Miles Sanders
9 TE Noah Fant
10 WR DK Metcalf
11 RB David Montgomery
12 RB Devin Singletary
13 WR N'Keal Harry
14 WR Diontae Johnson
15 WR Mecole Hardman
16 TE Irv Smith
17 WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside
18 RB Darrell Henderson
19 WR Parris Campbell
20 WR Andy Isabella
21 WR Preston Williams
22 WR Darius Slayton
23 RB Damien Harris
24 RB Bryce Love
Just curious, it’s only been a couple of weeks but has either A.J. Brown or Miles Sanders moved up in value in your rankings?  I also keep liking Metcalf more and more.  My top 5 as of today are:  1) Jacobs, 2) A.J. Brown 3) Miles Sanders, 4) Metcalf and 5) McLaurin.  
 

If anyone else plays dynasty, it would be interesting to see your top 12 rookies  (PPR, 1QB, Non-IDP) if your draft was today.

 

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