Drafted saquon 1.01( oops) and Lamar as last starting QB in 12 team dynasty league. made five great trades to end up with Lamar, Saquon, Dalvin, Kupp, Godwin, Lockett, Kittle. Currently 5-7 and may miss playoffs despite having the second most points in the league (150 ahead of third). Have 200 more PA than any other team.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
A case study on why H2H is all luck (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter SCT
- Start date
Welcome to FF. It is probably 95% luck these days regardless of the format. Everyone has the same info, the same "sleepers", the same breakouts. Can you avoid injuries, will those players actually perform as expected (or better), and will the schedule luck help you? It's part of the game.
It's why i prefer deep bench drafts. That is where the research and sleepers come from. It gives a little more advantage to those that do some work over the guy that shows up with a printed cheat sheet.
ETA: not much of an advantage but it makes you feel like you have one...hahaha
Last edited by a moderator:
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Which is why I always suggest All Play leagues. Essentially, each team plays every other team each week. You keep track of total wins and losses. So in a 12-team league, you would play 11 games each week.
Another option (or in conjunction with All Play) would be Best Ball leagues, where you don't have to submit your weekly lineup and your best score counts from any players on your roster. No pulling your hair out when one of you players scores 3 TD's but was on your bench.
IMO, those options are way fairer and better / more skilled fantasy players will come out on top. Definitely requires some different strategy, but overall I think it's more fun.
Another option (or in conjunction with All Play) would be Best Ball leagues, where you don't have to submit your weekly lineup and your best score counts from any players on your roster. No pulling your hair out when one of you players scores 3 TD's but was on your bench.
IMO, those options are way fairer and better / more skilled fantasy players will come out on top. Definitely requires some different strategy, but overall I think it's more fun.
matttyl
Footballguy
Or a great case for it....
10 team H2H league among friends. 2 divisions of 5 teams, 6 teams make the playoffs which start week 14 - with the two division leaders getting a week 14 bye. First tiebreaker is head to head, second is division record, then is points. In one division, with only one week left in the regular season 4 of the 5 teams have a legit shot at winning the division title (and thus a first round playoff bye). Two of those 4 teams also have a legit shot at missing the playoffs altogether.
10 team H2H league among friends. 2 divisions of 5 teams, 6 teams make the playoffs which start week 14 - with the two division leaders getting a week 14 bye. First tiebreaker is head to head, second is division record, then is points. In one division, with only one week left in the regular season 4 of the 5 teams have a legit shot at winning the division title (and thus a first round playoff bye). Two of those 4 teams also have a legit shot at missing the playoffs altogether.
tackle for loss
Footballguy
Im 6-6, missed the playoffs and am points leader because division record is tie break instead of points.
Luck? thats all of fantasy once the lineups are set.
Luck? thats all of fantasy once the lineups are set.
Last edited by a moderator:
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
tackle for loss
Footballguy
Teams do autodraft and win titles. The constant alerts of injuries by the platforms for owners who do nothing but hope for texts takes out the paying attention advantage.
There is literally no advantage for the more knowledgeable dedicated owners anymore,especially when leagues just continue to make rules to prevent the better owners from being better and trying to level the playing field so much that it takes more luck to win than knowledge. The bad owners will always cry and advocate for rules to makethem have a better chance from sucking.
If you didn't have to decide on lineups it would lose a lot of the fun for me. That is the majority of the "skill" left in fantasy football. Analyzing matchups and lineups to optimize your lineup. Without that I think the luck factor increases. Will this be the week you face a WR4 that happens to score 3 TD's this week? Without the owner needing to put him in the lineup it is just dumb luck that you are facing that guy.
All play is another thing that would diminish the fun. You are playing against every player every week. Nothing really to root for or against. It just loses it's excitement. Might as well just do a simulation after the season to see who wins.
Luck is part of fantasy football and always has been. Schedule luck is part of it. Sometimes you lose with the 2nd highest points and sometime you win with the second worst points. Each week is different and you have a team to compete against. That is why football is the best of the fantasy sports. It has nice single week cut off points. It lends itself to head to head matchups well. Sample sizes are small and every week is important. Going all play makes it more roto style which isn't as exciting.
GregR
Footballguy
We went to triple headers which I thought was a good middle ground. Not so many matchups that you can't cheer for and against players, but our results were much closer to total points.
You could also have playoff spots based on a combo of H2H and total points. Like number teams 1 to 12 for both formats. Add the rankings for each team. Lowest total is top seed, etc down the list.
You could also have playoff spots based on a combo of H2H and total points. Like number teams 1 to 12 for both formats. Add the rankings for each team. Lowest total is top seed, etc down the list.
I don’t play any all plays but would think that MNF has increased value due to positional changes that can occur concerning every team in the league. This aspect seems crazy in a good way to me, but yeah I am a head to head guy. If you play fantasy long enough you’ll be on both sides of the coin (schedule luck) at some point.
tackle for loss
Footballguy
I was thinking about doing a podcast as a retired vet and I think it will be better from someone who dont play. A lot of these guys are jaded by playing so they have their bias. I was looking to quit just for that reason. YOu can still use your skill and prob provide better advice to others since you are not playing.
tackle for loss
Footballguy
Just do all tie breaks based off points and it all evens out in the end. Winning and losing is the point of football,not season long points. football isnt a marathon that carries over week to week, its a series of mini events and needs a finally every week. The problem is you cant always eliminate everything to make things fair. You got to let luck play a part as with everything.GregR said:
Last edited by a moderator:
GregR
Footballguy
Total points seems to be the best option in my opinion. In a 10 team league for example, the 5 highest scores get wins, and the 5 lowest get losses. The only H2H game is the Championship game.
A similar point can be made about snake drafts being almost all luck. Auctions are a better option, but it can be hard to get people to engage in them, as they take 2-3 ties longer than a normal draft, and involve far more strategy.
Ultimately the future of FF, is probably DFS style leagues. Where you pick a new team every week, but compete with just the 8/10/12 etc. people in your league.
A similar point can be made about snake drafts being almost all luck. Auctions are a better option, but it can be hard to get people to engage in them, as they take 2-3 ties longer than a normal draft, and involve far more strategy.
Ultimately the future of FF, is probably DFS style leagues. Where you pick a new team every week, but compete with just the 8/10/12 etc. people in your league.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Yes, our league winners over the past 27 years have overwhelmingly been the teams with the lowest PA total.SCT said:
Highest PA total dictates the losers as well.
This year (so far) PA differential between "best" and "worst" teams is 424 pts... that's over 35 additional pts/game against that the "loser" has to deal with.
Todem
Footballguy
In my one and only 12 team redraft I am pushing hard for auction and best ball for next season.
Gotta change things up and try to mitigate as much of the luck factor out of FF. I am done with snake drafts and head to head. If we can't at least go to auction....I am out.
In my 17 year 12 team dynasty league we went to double headers this year and it was pretty cool.
Gotta change things up and try to mitigate as much of the luck factor out of FF. I am done with snake drafts and head to head. If we can't at least go to auction....I am out.
In my 17 year 12 team dynasty league we went to double headers this year and it was pretty cool.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I remember in 2002, I played in a league hosted by ESPN. Literally everything I touched turned to gold in that league. Hit home runs on every draft pick, every free agent pick up, and every trade. I had 2 of the Top 3 QB's, 5 Top 10 RB's, 5 Top 10 WR, and the #1 TE (to go along with a Top 3 DEF and PK). I outscored every other team by over 400 points (in 0 ppr scoring).
I BARELY won the league. I had to win in Week 14 to end up 8-6 just to make the playoffs. In those weeks, I was the top scorer 7 times, the second best scorer 6 times, and the third high scorer once. I destroyed everyone in the playoffs, but I really had to sweat making it that far.
I don't know if they still do it, but ESPN at the time ranked the top teams from all their leagues based on league competitiveness, possible points, overall league scoring, etc. There were probably 100,000+ leagues (if not more) and my team at the end of the year ranked in the Top 20 on their leaderboard. I had 4 more losses than every other team on the leaderboard COMBINED (only two teams had one loss and all the others were undefeated). Had my team gone undefeated, I likely would have had been their #1 team overall (I scored more points than all the teams they had rated).
So yeah, count me in the camp that no matter what you do, fantasy is more luck than anything else.
I BARELY won the league. I had to win in Week 14 to end up 8-6 just to make the playoffs. In those weeks, I was the top scorer 7 times, the second best scorer 6 times, and the third high scorer once. I destroyed everyone in the playoffs, but I really had to sweat making it that far.
I don't know if they still do it, but ESPN at the time ranked the top teams from all their leagues based on league competitiveness, possible points, overall league scoring, etc. There were probably 100,000+ leagues (if not more) and my team at the end of the year ranked in the Top 20 on their leaderboard. I had 4 more losses than every other team on the leaderboard COMBINED (only two teams had one loss and all the others were undefeated). Had my team gone undefeated, I likely would have had been their #1 team overall (I scored more points than all the teams they had rated).
So yeah, count me in the camp that no matter what you do, fantasy is more luck than anything else.
All good thoughts and I totally realize this is a shirt pointing post but in 20 years I've never seen anything like this week after week. I've lost with 2nd high points four times. I'd be 11-1 if we did double header or all play. We also award 30% of money to most points and 20% to 2nd most points. I'm a lock for one of those and may not even be in playoffs.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Just curious . . . what strategy? Isn't the H2H strategy to field the highest scoring team possible? IMO, there is DIFFERENT strategy in the various scoring systems and formats, but not sure I would say there is ADDED strategy to H2H leagues. Put another way, I can't say I altered my weekly lineup based on the opponent I was facing. I played what I felt was the highest scoring combination possible.
H2H is solely luck until you get near playoffs in which, if you are locked in to your seed and you are dirty, you may intentionally lose to effect the seeding and your first round matchup.
I have made lineup decisions based on my opponent. For example, if I am a heavy underdog I am more likely to play high upside players than high floor players. If I am a heavy favorite I will do the opposite. It also affects whether or not to play stacks or try to diversify a bit more.
Of course most of these are in situations where the players in questions are fairly similar in tiers of players. I wouldn't sit a top 10 type player for a top 40 player just because of the predicted potential. But in situations where I am trying to decide between a couple players I have taken my opponent into consideration.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The only strategy I used differently in H2H leagues was 1) building a roster with good playoff matchups and 2) hording blind bid dollars to make sure I could grab whatever players took on bigger roles late in the season. I never threw games or tried to skew playoff match ups. I also tried to steam roll opponents come playoff time (and often did).
What I used to do that infuriated people was playing some of those late season pick ups with sweet match ups and beating teams with fantasy studs with terrible matchups. No one likes to lose, but no one wants to lose with HOF talent playing to the likes of Nick Goings and Dominic Rhodes.
I think sometimes points against can be skewed due to not playing your own team. Many times the highest scoring teams in my leagues are near the bottom of PA because they don't have to face their high scoring team. It does have an affect although I am not sure how much. Anecdotally I have noticed that more often than not the highest scoring team is one of the least scored upon teams.
Really. How do you explain me possibly not making the playoffs with that roster? And, by the way, 8 of 12 teams make the playoffs. Fantasy Pros has had my team power ranked as #1 from day 1 till now....so where did my skill come in to play?
What are you talking about? Clearly I started fine players since I finished 150 points ahead of third. I lost to the top point getter four times with the #2 amount of points. I was top half of the league in weekly points 11/12 times.
I didn't make this post to garner sympathy but rather to look at the math and obvious overwhelming amount of luck (or lack thereof) involved in H2H. You can't argue with the math. Your responses about me not starting or adding the right guys is ridiculous based on the math. I outscored 10 out of 11 teams in four of my 7 losses.
LOL, already admitted to that too but your replies since then haven't made sense and now you're saying that my logic is a shirt point?. Though the one about a high couple weeks skewing total points is legit, but as I outlined several times that wasn't the case as I had 2nd highest in four losses....In wins I've had the highest twice and 2nd highest once. No big deal, just describing an outlier of a season which really highlights the luck factor. I'm gonna move on now.
Yes started Barkley and Kupp week 10 with a win week 11 with a win and this week lost 152-148 with the third highest amount so wrong again chief. I've been playing 20 years and I understand all the basic scenarios you've described. I wouldn' t have bothered sharing this story if it boiled down to these simple explanations. It's been an insane run of bad luck, the end.
Last edited by a moderator:
Jesus dude, of course I coulda won a game or two if I had started a different guy never said otherwise....you specifically theorized that I lost the last three weeks because Barkley and Kupp have sucked. Not the case. Let me spell it out for you......if I start the wrong guy so I only score the second highest amount of points and lose to the first highest amount of points but I woulda won if I had started the right guy because I woulda scored the highest amount of points and my weekly opponent woulda been at the 2nd highest amount of points then that's super bad luck for me, not really a skills oriented mistake as much. Good lord, I vow not to come back to this so if you want to keep going here you'll have to play with yourself.
ZWK
Footballguy
I'm in a 12 team league where 6 teams make the playoffs. 5 of the 6 highest scoring teams would be in the playoffs if they started now, with the 4th highest scoring team missing out (going by H2H, with total points as a tiebreaker).
In a 10 team league, 4 teams make the playoffs. 3 of the 4 highest scoring teams would be in the playoffs if they started now, with the 2nd highest scoring team missing out.
In an 8 team league, 4 teams make the playoffs. 3 of the 4 highest scoring teams would be in the playoffs if they started now, with the 4th highest scoring team missing out.
In a 14 team league, 6 teams make the playoffs. 4 of the 6 highest scoring teams would be in the playoffs if they started now, with the 4th & 6th highest scoring teams missing out.
So H2H adds some randomness to total points but it doesn't shake things up dramatically.
(Single elimination playoffs shake things up more than the particular method of deciding which teams make the playoffs, if you look at which team wins the championship.)
In a 10 team league, 4 teams make the playoffs. 3 of the 4 highest scoring teams would be in the playoffs if they started now, with the 2nd highest scoring team missing out.
In an 8 team league, 4 teams make the playoffs. 3 of the 4 highest scoring teams would be in the playoffs if they started now, with the 4th highest scoring team missing out.
In a 14 team league, 6 teams make the playoffs. 4 of the 6 highest scoring teams would be in the playoffs if they started now, with the 4th & 6th highest scoring teams missing out.
So H2H adds some randomness to total points but it doesn't shake things up dramatically.
(Single elimination playoffs shake things up more than the particular method of deciding which teams make the playoffs, if you look at which team wins the championship.)
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Nothing is "all luck." In the short term, yes... but zoom out to the longer term.
FF is like Poker or Blackjack. Luck is a large component that good play cant overcome in the short run, but does in the long run.
You will never be 100% right, or even 75% right. The good analysts are probably right 60% of the time and that separates them from the bad analysts who are right 45% of the time.
FF is like Poker or Blackjack. Luck is a large component that good play cant overcome in the short run, but does in the long run.
You will never be 100% right, or even 75% right. The good analysts are probably right 60% of the time and that separates them from the bad analysts who are right 45% of the time.
I've been playing this game for 35+ years now, in multiple leagues. I've seen a lot of things happen. And I've forgotten much of it, because my memory ain't what it used to be. 
Going back to the OP - yes, you've had some bad luck......but it is in no way unique. One of my leagues now awards part of the prize pool to the high points scorer for the season, after having 1 team dominate in that aspect while missing the playoffs.
I'm currently #1 in total points in one league with a 7-5 record and 3rd place in my division. May or may not make the playoffs. I had a 3-week run where I lost all 3 games by a total of 2.85 points. That hurt..... The #2 scoring team in that league is 5-7 and will NOT make the playoffs.
In another league, I am far and away the #1 scoring team, in 2nd place to a team that has scored over 300 points less (1934 - 1613). The team in 3rd place in that division has outscored that team by about 140 points, and will only make the playoffs because the final playoff spot in that league goes to the team with the highest total points that isn't currently in the playoffs.
I've had plenty of seasons where I would score the 2nd highest points in a week and lose......but one memory that stands out was a week from about 25 years ago. At the time in that league, an average scoring week was about 100 or 110 points. A great scoring week was 140-150. I put up a 199 score, which ended up being the 2nd highest score in the league for the entire year, with the next highest being a distant 30+ behind that. The highest score of that year? Yes, it was that same week, and happened to be my opponent for that week. What are the odds of that?
Conversely, I know that I've had inferior teams that happened to match up the right weeks to give me a winning team. Luck works both ways. In the long run, it tends to even out. Usually.
There are plenty of options for mitigating HTH's luck factor, including Victory Points (not mentioned in this thread that I recall) and the option mentioned above of reserving a playoff spot for the highest-scoring team that hasn't otherwise qualified. There are advantages for keeping HTH, such as more teams staying in the running later (I don't have anything to back that up, but I've heard it to be true).
Going back to the OP - yes, you've had some bad luck......but it is in no way unique. One of my leagues now awards part of the prize pool to the high points scorer for the season, after having 1 team dominate in that aspect while missing the playoffs.
I'm currently #1 in total points in one league with a 7-5 record and 3rd place in my division. May or may not make the playoffs. I had a 3-week run where I lost all 3 games by a total of 2.85 points. That hurt..... The #2 scoring team in that league is 5-7 and will NOT make the playoffs.
In another league, I am far and away the #1 scoring team, in 2nd place to a team that has scored over 300 points less (1934 - 1613). The team in 3rd place in that division has outscored that team by about 140 points, and will only make the playoffs because the final playoff spot in that league goes to the team with the highest total points that isn't currently in the playoffs.
I've had plenty of seasons where I would score the 2nd highest points in a week and lose......but one memory that stands out was a week from about 25 years ago. At the time in that league, an average scoring week was about 100 or 110 points. A great scoring week was 140-150. I put up a 199 score, which ended up being the 2nd highest score in the league for the entire year, with the next highest being a distant 30+ behind that. The highest score of that year? Yes, it was that same week, and happened to be my opponent for that week. What are the odds of that?
Conversely, I know that I've had inferior teams that happened to match up the right weeks to give me a winning team. Luck works both ways. In the long run, it tends to even out. Usually.
There are plenty of options for mitigating HTH's luck factor, including Victory Points (not mentioned in this thread that I recall) and the option mentioned above of reserving a playoff spot for the highest-scoring team that hasn't otherwise qualified. There are advantages for keeping HTH, such as more teams staying in the running later (I don't have anything to back that up, but I've heard it to be true).
