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Dynasty: QB Joe Burrow, LSU

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3 minutes ago, Deamon said:

There's a difference between "gaining assets to help the future and not caring if it loses you games this year" and "doing what it takes to lose games in order to get a better pick".  

I think #1 happens a lot in sports and I don't see any issue with it.  I think #2 is way more rare in sports than armchair gm's at home would like to think.  I get it, the term " tanking" is exciting and makes people giddy. But chances are fitzpatrick wasn't demanding any picks at the point of the trade deadline. 

Yeah if we want to draw a line in the sand between literally tanking vs making it difficult to win, I'd be on the making it difficult to win side. I suppose the "tanking" term is thrown around too much, or maybe shouldnt be used at all. 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Generally yes but not always - especially with a rookie HC. The GM could have put some pressure on him if he really wanted to. He didn't obviously. Anyway I'm not sure why this is something to argue over. They clearly were in a rebuild at the very least. If you disagree that's fine.  

I agree they were rebuilding. I dont agree that winning some games was something that upset people in the organization who could have done something about it. They were 0-7 at the deadline and already did more to "look to the future" than any team I can think of in recent memory. 

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3 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Right. So I don't get the notion that the dolphins "screwed up their tanking efforts".  Who did?  The coach wasn't tanking and he's the one who started fitzpatrick. There wasnt really much else the GM could have realistically done to lose them more games. 

I think the players overcame a poor roster construction and great odds to win the games they did, which was likely against what the "plan" was in the front office. The GM could have told the coach to play the worst players or I'll find someone who will. but he didnt and that's a good thing. 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

Yeah if we want to draw a line in the sand between literally tanking vs making it difficult to win, I'd be on the making it difficult to win side. I suppose the "tanking" term is thrown around too much, or maybe shouldnt be used at all. 

People (not saying you) love to throw it around because it's exciting to think of a team "trying to lose games" when it doesn't happen like this in reality. Twitter was full of some angry fans after they won some games saying they "messed it up" but I don't know who "they" is when it could only be the GM, and he did pretty much everything he could to not care about wins this year. 

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I think the players overcame a poor roster construction and great odds to win the games they did, which was likely against what the "plan" was in the front office. The GM could have told the coach to play the worst players or I'll find someone who will. but he didnt and that's a good thing. 

I think it's unlikely a coach would do that. If Flores ever got fired or there was bad blood with the GM and he went public saying that, it would not be good.  If a guy is hurt and you shut him down, or if you can get good future picks via trade, yes go for it. There's reasons to do that that are justifiable. It's no one's "fault" the team won games.  It's hard to go 0-16 in the NFL when 75+ players and coaches want to win and practice all week to win the next game. 

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16 hours ago, kodycutter said:

Dolphins trading up?

................

Cincinnati Bengals would receive: 

2020 first-round pick (fifth overall)

2020 first-round pick (18th overall)

2020 second-round pick (39th overall)

2021 first-round pick

2021 third-round pick

Miami Dolphins would receive: 

2020 first-round pick (first overall)

......................

That would be a heavy price for playing Fitzpatrick over Rosen. 

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18 hours ago, SayWhat? said:

There is, actually.  It’s drafting a Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, or DeAndre Hopkins instead.  
 

But as for the idea of taking a QB in the 1st, how many “Peyton Manning’s” have there been?  For the sake of ffball discussion, let’s call that a highly profiled top 3 NFL draft pick whom people were smitten on that ended up being a long-term difference maker in fantasy football.  

So far in my poll, 2/3 of respondents think it's Manning.

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16 hours ago, kodycutter said:

Dolphins trading up?

................

Cincinnati Bengals would receive: 

2020 first-round pick (fifth overall)

2020 first-round pick (18th overall)

2020 second-round pick (39th overall)

2021 first-round pick

2021 third-round pick

Miami Dolphins would receive: 

2020 first-round pick (first overall)

......................

I love me some Burrow, but I can't see a team with as many holes as the Dolphins have making a move like this.  Heck, just sign Bridgewater and use those picks otherwise.

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23 minutes ago, Doug B said:

I try not to believe any draft trade speculation until it actually happens.  That said, trading the meat of multiple drafts plus Thomas and Kamara for a rookie QB is not a good decision in my opinion.

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Someone is positing a Saints trade involving Thomas, Kamara, AND picks?

If that doesn't work are they planning on adding a velociraptor, a moon base, and eleventy billion dollars?

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4 hours ago, Deamon said:

Right. So I don't get the notion that the dolphins "screwed up their tanking efforts".  Who did?  The coach wasn't tanking and he's the one who started fitzpatrick. There wasnt really much else the GM could have realistically done to lose them more games. 

You could argue the coach and remaining players screwed up the GM's attempt at tanking.

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18 hours ago, kodycutter said:

Dolphins trading up?

................

Cincinnati Bengals would receive: 

2020 first-round pick (fifth overall)

2020 first-round pick (18th overall)

2020 second-round pick (39th overall)

2021 first-round pick

2021 third-round pick

Miami Dolphins would receive: 

2020 first-round pick (first overall)

......................

This is the Bengals publicly leaking their starting asking price. No way Miami gives this up.

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18 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Someone is positing a Saints trade involving Thomas, Kamara, AND picks?

If that doesn't work are they planning on adding a velociraptor, a moon base, and eleventy billion dollars?

Now you are just being silly.  Everyone knows the moon landing was fake.

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1 hour ago, Doug B said:

Have you seen Swimmer trying to sell this exact scenario for the Saints over on Saintsreport?

MT + AK + Picks is a non-starter.  I'm not even sure the Saints would entertain a Cam Jordan / AK / Picks scenario.

But if the Saints brain trust has gotten together and determined it's time to blow things up, you can make a case for MT + AK.  MT makes a lot of bread and AK will soon.  Frees up future cap space for the Saints and allows them to build a team around JB.  But why would the Bengals do that?  They don't seem like the kind of team that wants to take on big salaries.  As much as MT would help them (or anyone) I don't think they'd take him instead of a bunch of picks.  WR seems to be one of the "strengths" of the Bengals anyway.

I have nothing but my gut telling me this, but I think the other player they're sniffing around (if that story has any truth) is Lattimore.  He has a reasonable contract for a shut-down type, and would be a great addition on the Bengals at a sore point of need.  AK + Lattimore + a couple of high picks?  Doesn't sound all that crazy.

The Saints have shown that when they want a shiny toy they will overpay to get it (I'm looking at you, Davenport).

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15 minutes ago, Statorama said:

The Saints have shown that when they want a shiny toy they will overpay to get it (I'm looking at you, Davenport).

:(

The 1sts given up for Davenport could've been:

2018 -- LB Leighton Van Der Esch or LB Darius Leonard
2019 -- WR Deebo Samuel or Mecole Hardman

And we had DE Trey Hendrickson already in the fold showing out.

Edited by Doug B
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43 minutes ago, Doug B said:

:(

The 1sts given up for Davenport could've been:

2018 -- LB Leighton Van Der Esch or LB Darius Leonard
2019 -- WR Deebo Samuel or Mecole Hardman

And we had DE Trey Hendrickson already in the fold showing out.

Not only that, it's potential capital when you want to pull off a Jalen Ramsey type trade.

Thinking that Vander Esch could have been on the Saints but isn't makes my tummy hurt.

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4 hours ago, zed2283 said:

So far in my poll, 2/3 of respondents think it's Manning.

You’re comparing a guy with a solid fifteen year track record to one with three.  Of course some are going take the “safe” pick.  That’s like offering someone a guaranteed rate of return of 20%, or a 50/50 chance of doubling their money. Not sure what that poll is proving?  Put one up about how many would prefer Mahomes or McCaffrey at the start of their career, knowing what we know three years in, and see what the results are in a 1 QB ppr league.  By the way, you didn’t answer the question.  How many “Manning’s” have there been?  A top 3 drafted NFL QB with elite fantasy potential whom ended up providing anywhere near elite fantasy potential.  Probably one is my guess.  I’d say odds are highly against number two being Burrows.  But hey, maybe you’ll get Eli Manning for fifteen years?

 

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2 hours ago, Statorama said:

MT + AK + Picks is a non-starter.  I'm not even sure the Saints would entertain a Cam Jordan / AK / Picks scenario.

But if the Saints brain trust has gotten together and determined it's time to blow things up, you can make a case for MT + AK.  MT makes a lot of bread and AK will soon.  Frees up future cap space for the Saints and allows them to build a team around JB.  But why would the Bengals do that?  They don't seem like the kind of team that wants to take on big salaries.  As much as MT would help them (or anyone) I don't think they'd take him instead of a bunch of picks.  WR seems to be one of the "strengths" of the Bengals anyway.

I have nothing but my gut telling me this, but I think the other player they're sniffing around (if that story has any truth) is Lattimore.  He has a reasonable contract for a shut-down type, and would be a great addition on the Bengals at a sore point of need.  AK + Lattimore + a couple of high picks?  Doesn't sound all that crazy.

The Saints have shown that when they want a shiny toy they will overpay to get it (I'm looking at you, Davenport).

I agree, GB. 

The, shall I say, baffling uncertainty that AK displayed at times this year was troubling for me. I don't know if it was injury induced or if it was defenses figuring him out a little bit or just him getting a little shellshocked. I'd be ecstatic with a trade of AK and anybody not named Brees or MT (ok and maybe Taysom, not for QB status, but for the wildcard factor) to keep Joey B in-state! 

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51 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

You’re comparing a guy with a solid fifteen year track record to one with three.  Of course some are going take the “safe” pick.  That’s like offering someone a guaranteed rate of return of 20%, or a 50/50 chance of doubling their money. Not sure what that poll is proving?  Put one up about how many would prefer Mahomes or McCaffrey at the start of their career, knowing what we know three years in, and see what the results are in a 1 QB ppr league.  By the way, you didn’t answer the question.  How many “Manning’s” have there been?  A top 3 drafted NFL QB with elite fantasy potential whom ended up providing anywhere near elite fantasy potential.  Probably one is my guess.  I’d say odds are highly against number two being Burrows.  But hey, maybe you’ll get Eli Manning for fifteen years?

 

My favorite post so far today. 

The original comparison is way out of whack.

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while i may like Burrow, i don't think giving up the farm for him makes sense. Thomas, especially, is the MVP of the team and you don't trade your MVP as he enters prime years.

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2 hours ago, SayWhat? said:

You’re comparing a guy with a solid fifteen year track record to one with three.  Of course some are going take the “safe” pick.  That’s like offering someone a guaranteed rate of return of 20%, or a 50/50 chance of doubling their money. Not sure what that poll is proving?  Put one up about how many would prefer Mahomes or McCaffrey at the start of their career, knowing what we know three years in, and see what the results are in a 1 QB ppr league.  By the way, you didn’t answer the question.  How many “Manning’s” have there been?  A top 3 drafted NFL QB with elite fantasy potential whom ended up providing anywhere near elite fantasy potential.  Probably one is my guess.  I’d say odds are highly against number two being Burrows.  But hey, maybe you’ll get Eli Manning for fifteen years?

 

I'm proving that my original statement was correct.  Peyton Manning is more valuable.  So if you think you've got one (much like the NFL draft) then you take him.  Sure, it's not always going to work out, but neither is the RB.

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10 minutes ago, zed2283 said:

I'm proving that my original statement was correct.  Peyton Manning is more valuable.  So if you think you've got one (much like the NFL draft) then you take him.  Sure, it's not always going to work out, but neither is the RB.

Nice avoidance, again.  Good luck with that “next Peyton Manning” at it would be the first one since...well, apparently Peyton Manning.  Seems like you’ve got good odds to hit that walk off grand slam. :thumbup:

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1 minute ago, SayWhat? said:

Nice avoidance, again.  Good luck with that “next Peyton Manning” at it would be the first one since...well, apparently Peyton Manning.  Seems like you’ve got good odds to hit that walk off grand slam. :thumbup:

What am I avoiding?  I said there's nothing more valuable than landing Peyton Manning for 14 years and you said landing McCaffrey or Kamara was.  I was supporting my position.

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8 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Someone is positing a Saints trade involving Thomas, Kamara, AND picks?

If that doesn't work are they planning on adding a velociraptor, a moon base, and eleventy billion dollars?

Throw in a package of Chuckles and some Necco Wafers and we'll talk.

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On 1/16/2020 at 1:16 PM, Andy Dufresne said:

Well sometimes it's hard to tell what you're saying.

As to Burrow the diagnosis is simple if you look at it as a whole. First, he JUST turned 23 last month. Second, he redshirted at OSU then got stuck behind JT Barrett and Dwayne Haskins. Third, he played last year in an offense that would have been considered archaic when Yale was playing for national championships. In a year where he's put in a modern offense - voila - he sets records and wins the Heisman.

And you're cherry picking your examples to prove your hypothesis. In fact the opposite is generally more true - guys that come out early have a larger chance of busting than those who stay. Here's a recent article on the phenomena - https://www.profootballweekly.com/2016/12/05/greg-gabriel-quarterbacks-need-to-think-twice-before-entering-nfl-draft-early/arzc3pk/

It really feels like you're being contrarian just for the sake of it. You DO contribute a lot of good stuff. But lately it's increasingly off the wall.

Circumstances in college can be everything.  Wasn't Brady relatively unheralded - a backup or, at least, back and forth with other QBs while at Michigan?  

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On 1/16/2020 at 8:38 AM, JohnnyU said:

I doubt he will go in the first round of 1QB leagues.  He could go 1.11 or 1.12 I suppose. 

Presume we're talking dynasty drafts...

I probably need a QB on my main dynasty team and currently hold the 1.08  Personally, I think that might be too high as a top 2-3 WR could still be on the board.   When I look around the league, most teams have a rock solid QB.  I think I could trade into the early 2nd and grab him.  At least that will feel a little less risky.  Going to play this one by ear.  A lot could change based on draft spot.  He might be available at 2.08 as a Bengal or he could be off the board before 1.08 if he lands in a prime spot.

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12 hours ago, DropKick said:

Presume we're talking dynasty drafts...

I probably need a QB on my main dynasty team and currently hold the 1.08  Personally, I think that might be too high as a top 2-3 WR could still be on the board.   When I look around the league, most teams have a rock solid QB.  I think I could trade into the early 2nd and grab him.  At least that will feel a little less risky.  Going to play this one by ear.  A lot could change based on draft spot.  He might be available at 2.08 as a Bengal or he could be off the board before 1.08 if he lands in a prime spot.

yes, talking dynasty.  Is there any other kind?

Edited by JohnnyU

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1 hour ago, King of the Jungle said:

Joe Burrow in a Louisiana market is a dream scenario from a business perspective. Make it happen Saints.

Going to be tough considering they have the 24th pick and no 2nd round pick.

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22 hours ago, Doug B said:

When you posted it it was the first I'd heard of it, by the afternoon two people mentioned it to me. Thanks for @'ing me.

I'll say I find the rumor believable, in the sense I believe there is a leak at the camp, otoh there is a lot of scuttlebutt at camp. The media area at Saints camp has this trainer talking about this, this guy talking about that. And I believe that the Saints truly analyze everything, so yeah have the Saints started gaming out the draft to the nth possibility and every last scenario? Yes, I could see that and I could see getting a QB and the 1.1 and this specific QB as part of that. So 'the Saints have explored what it would take to get Burrow' is to me believable, but by the same token I don't think they'd actually jump through these hoops. I've had this bug about the front office for some time now because I wonder who is really making the calls. Jeff Ireland? Yeah I could see him doing this. Is it Mickey Loomis? No. Peyton? No, I don't think he gives up on Brees until Brees gives up. Has Brees given them the notice it's just one more year? Then it becomes more imperative. Who knows as far as that is concerned. But we know that premium QB picks don't sit for 2 years (except I guess Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers) and we also know the Saints are never ditching Brees.

And Davenport was coming on but he's missed the playoffs two straight years. Do SP and the front office really internally think that was worth it or are they gunshy. The idea of a McLauren or AJ Brown having been paired with Thomas is just mindblowing. And Hendrickson had the play of the game vs the Vikes (that was never called). Davenport is starting to look like a thoroughbred who is too easily injured, so they fell in love with the athleticism, got it, but are they gunshy now? 

There's no way of knowing what Brees is thinking, but by the same token maybe the Saints ought to think about sitting tight for a while and getting back to hitting on lower draft picks... like they did with Boston Scott. And frankly Michael Thomas was a hit with a lower pick, where they got him was ridiculous in retrospect. Hopefully that's what they're focusing on.

 

Edited by SaintsInDome2006

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21 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Someone is positing a Saints trade involving Thomas, Kamara, AND picks?

If that doesn't work are they planning on adding a velociraptor, a moon base, and eleventy billion dollars?

It's technically picks, Kamara + ?.  So the ? is any premium player that supposedly the Bengals would want, so it could be Lattimore for instance, or Ramczyk. I personally see those guys on the same level fwiw. Lattimore's arrival changed the defense, I don't care what PFF ranks him, and Ramczyk arriving coincided with the refocus on run success.  I guess the funny thing is if the Tigers hadn't recalibrated their offense with a Saints assistant Burrow could have been a mid or lower round pick available for the taking. - It's also funny because this regime has by and large stayed away from picking LSU players. I think I can recall them drafting one since 2006 despite all the talent that has been on display year after year. The school they love is Ohio State.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006

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2 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

Joe Burrow in a Louisiana market is a dream scenario from a business perspective. Make it happen Saints.

Something I've been curious about is how South Ohio is viewing Burrow, because isn't he a local boy there as well? I'd think there would be a lot of enthusiasm in Cincy. Taylor is a pretty terrific fit also I'd think.

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1 hour ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Something I've been curious about is how South Ohio is viewing Burrow, because isn't he a local boy there as well? I'd think there would be a lot of enthusiasm in Cincy. Taylor is a pretty terrific fit also I'd think.

I agree....he really is not a bad fit anywhere obviously. Cincy is lucky to be in their position.

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40 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

I agree....he really is not a bad fit anywhere obviously. Cincy is lucky to be in their position.

99% chance he is in Cincinnati in 2020 but it would be interesting to read Joe's mind as to where he would most like to be.

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5 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

It's technically picks, Kamara + ?.  So the ? is any premium player that supposedly the Bengals would want, so it could be Lattimore for instance, or Ramczyk. I personally see those guys on the same level fwiw. Lattimore's arrival changed the defense, I don't care what PFF ranks him, and Ramczyk arriving coincided with the refocus on run success.  I guess the funny thing is if the Tigers hadn't recalibrated their offense with a Saints assistant Burrow could have been a mid or lower round pick available for the taking. - It's also funny because this regime has by and large stayed away from picking LSU players. I think I can recall them drafting one since 2006 despite all the talent that has been on display year after year. The school they love is Ohio State.

Would Kamara be of much value to a team that already has Mixon?   Thomas would be a different story.  But who needs a QB more than Cincy?  Really can't see the Bengals trading out of that pick unless Burrow isn't the guy they want.

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16 minutes ago, DropKick said:

Would Kamara be of much value to a team that already has Mixon?   Thomas would be a different story.  But who needs a QB more than Cincy?  Really can't see the Bengals trading out of that pick unless Burrow isn't the guy they want.

That whole Kamara for Burrow rumour might be the stupidest thing I've read this year.

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16 minutes ago, DropKick said:

Would Kamara be of much value to a team that already has Mixon?   Thomas would be a different story.  But who needs a QB more than Cincy?  Really can't see the Bengals trading out of that pick unless Burrow isn't the guy they want.

Was going to say similar. Positionally it makes little sense for Cincy. 

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1 hour ago, IHEARTFF said:

Was going to say similar. Positionally it makes little sense for Cincy. 

Like most of the fantasy offers I get...  How does that work for me?

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On 1/17/2020 at 10:27 AM, Doug B said:

That thread is ridiculous, and the fans clamoring for NO to get Burrow at all costs are dumb.  The team is built to win now.  We need all the draft picks we have as OL, DL, WR, and probably LB need to be addressed.  I like Burrow as a prospect, but he's far from a for sure thing.  No need to set the franchise back for a young QB.

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I can envision the Colts being a dark horse in the Burrow sweepstakes. Ballard has been solid in the draft but if he can't fix the QB position in Indy, he will lose that luster rather quickly.

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11 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Something I've been curious about is how South Ohio is viewing Burrow, because isn't he a local boy there as well? I'd think there would be a lot of enthusiasm in Cincy. Taylor is a pretty terrific fit also I'd think.

Yes. For sure he is being viewed as a local kid coming home. This is a gold mine for the Bengals.  Besides marketing and fan excitement, let’s say Burrow is a huge star. Who is ever going to be more likely to resign and stay the face of the franchise for a 2nd contract than a southern Ohio kid?

Besides all the other reasons why the Saints idea is weird, Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara on the same team makes zero sense. 

Edited by cheese
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I was listening to Cecil Lammey on local sports talk here in Denver yesterday.  He was recently at the Shrine Bowl and said there was a buzz that Cincinnati is enamored with Herbert.  Would they be dumb enough to not trade down if so?

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10 hours ago, Shawnky said:

I was listening to Cecil Lammey on local sports talk here in Denver yesterday.  He was recently at the Shrine Bowl and said there was a buzz that Cincinnati is enamored with Herbert.  Would they be dumb enough to not trade down if so?

Paul Brown just rolled over in his grave.

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11 hours ago, cheese said:

Yes. For sure he is being viewed as a local kid coming home. This is a gold mine for the Bengals.  Besides marketing and fan excitement, let’s say Burrow is a huge star. Who is ever going to be more likely to resign and stay the face of the franchise for a 2nd contract than a southern Ohio kid?

Besides all the other reasons why the Saints idea is weird, Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara on the same team makes zero sense. 

I know this is going to be splitting hairs, but Burrow is from SE Ohio.  I'm from Ohio and I think the state is split more East-West than North-South.  So if I were guessing, I'd guess that Burrow actually grew up a Browns fan.

But yes, an Ohio boy being the face of an Ohio franchise makes sense for all.

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21 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

99% chance he is in Cincinnati in 2020 but it would be interesting to read Joe's mind as to where he would most like to be.

Carolina 

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1 hour ago, pantherclub said:

Carolina 

He just might be a James Taylor fan.

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