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The Lincoln Project - SuperPAC from Rick Wilson, Mr. Conway, Steve Schmidt, etc.

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7 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

People like them...yes, young and motivated.   Far left?  Not so sure.

And the flipside is Trump is already at the top and Qanon types are growing and far worse than AOC.

I have to disagree here. Trump's defeat will mean the end of Qanon types. Steve King already got primaried. Joe Arpaio didn't even get a little traction in the Senate Republican primary. Kris Kobach was beaten throughly in the Kansas GOP Senate primary by a mainstream establishment guy. Trump's style only works for Trump--not his worshippers

If Trump wins all bets are off though. I have no idea what to expect at that point

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Just now, KChusker said:

I have to disagree here. Trump's defeat will mean the end of Qanon types. Steve King already got primaried. Joe Arpaio didn't even get a little traction in the Senate Republican primary. Kris Kobach was beaten throughly in the Kansas GOP Senate primary by a mainstream establishment guy. Trump's style only works for Trump--not his worshippers

If Trump wins all bets are off though. I have no idea what to expect at that point

Except for those that are possibly gaining congressional seats even if he loses?

 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

Except for those that are possibly gaining congressional seats even if he loses?

Until they are primaried in 2022..

I wouldn't underestimate the realigning effects of a Trump loss on the Republican Party

And in any case AOC types have serious potential for upward climbing in the Democratic ranks (Speaker, Senate, Governor, DNC chair, committee chairs, cabinet, maybe a Presidential run in 2028, etc). The Qanon types have their district and that's it---and probably only for 2 years considering how fast Steve King was annihilated in the next election following his stupidity

Edited by KChusker

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16 minutes ago, KChusker said:

I have to disagree here. Trump's defeat will mean the end of Qanon types. Steve King already got primaried. Joe Arpaio didn't even get a little traction in the Senate Republican primary. Kris Kobach was beaten throughly in the Kansas GOP Senate primary by a mainstream establishment guy. Trump's style only works for Trump--not his worshippers

"Trump style" and "Qanon type" are not the same thing, and they don't always overlap.

There are at least 14 active Republican candidates with links to Qanon, and at least one of them will be in Congress for the next 2 years.

If Trump goes away, the Qanon theorists will just move the goalposts to the next variation on the conspiracy. Conspiracy theories are a lot like horoscopes: they're never specific enough to generate disillusionment when a prediction fails to materialize.

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

"Trump style" and "Qanon type" are not the same thing, and they don't always overlap.

There are at least 14 active Republican candidates with links to Qanon, and at least one of them will be in Congress for the next 2 years.

If Trump goes away, the Qanon theorists will just move the goalposts to the next variation on the conspiracy. Conspiracy theories are a lot like horoscopes: they're never specific enough to generate disillusionment when a prediction fails to materialize.

This is a pretty apt description of conspiracy theorists but I maintain the vocalness will go down with Trump's loss--and if it doesn't then Ms. Greene (and any other candidate who wins this year) will draw a far stronger and better funded primary opponent than this time around. The Republican mainstream is well aware of how toxic people like this are.

I have been to Rome, Georgia (a city in GA-14). The people are not by and large racist, stupid and hateful. If she speaks this Qanon garbage into the mainstream, I am confident she will be voted out sooner than later--probably for some really conservative but at least sane

Outside the scope of government I am sure this theory will be continue to be spread like so many others with little to no basis in reality are; but assuming Trump loses, no one spouting this garbage is a "rising star."

JMO

Edited by KChusker

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4 hours ago, [scooter] said:

"Trump style" and "Qanon type" are not the same thing, and they don't always overlap.

There are at least 14 active Republican candidates with links to Qanon, and at least one of them will be in Congress for the next 2 years.

If Trump goes away, the Qanon theorists will just move the goalposts to the next variation on the conspiracy. Conspiracy theories are a lot like horoscopes: they're never specific enough to generate disillusionment when a prediction fails to materialize.

Imagine what a post-Trump will entail. If anything it will enhance the conspiracy theories. Extensive voter fraud. Election rigged by the deep state because Trump was coming after them. And when further investigate everything the administration did, the conspiracy theories will go off the charts about anyone involved. It won’t die with Trump, it will get worse.

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George Conway is leaving Project Lincoln and Kellyanne is leaving the White House. Both cite having to deal with family issues. 

Best of luck to them and their daughter.

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13 minutes ago, whoknew said:

George Conway is leaving Project Lincoln and Kellyanne is leaving the White House. Both cite having to deal with family issues. 

Best of luck to them and their daughter.

Agreed. I hope they can overcome whatever issues they are facing as a family. 

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20 minutes ago, whoknew said:

George Conway is leaving Project Lincoln and Kellyanne is leaving the White House. Both cite having to deal with family issues. 

Most mainstream outlets are tactfully avoiding the full story, so far. Not surprised to see the NY Post sinking to TMZ's level, but very disappointing to see NBC (The Today Show) joining the tabloid ranks.

Anyway, I hope both George and Kellyanne stay out of the public eye for a while, including social media.

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7 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

Most mainstream outlets are tactfully avoiding the full story, so far. Not surprised to see the NY Post sinking to TMZ's level, but very disappointing to see NBC (The Today Show) joining the tabloid ranks.

Anyway, I hope both George and Kellyanne stay out of the public eye for a while, including social media.

Avoid the full story, politics aside people have families and they're more important (or should be) than careers or jobs.

Hope the best for them, and anyone in a situation where they have to step back from the public to focus on their family.  Best wishes to all of them.

Hopefully the Lincoln Project and continue with the zest it has before, and other conservative lawyers can step in and fill Conway's void.  It's important work they're doing.

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The daughter has over a million followers between instagram, TikTok and Twitter.  The story is everywhere. The MSM has done a good job of staying out the the lives of the first children, for the most part. 

It's a tough decision for Kellyanne, because she's scheduled to speak in a few days at the RNC, which "devastated" the daughter when she found out. The RNC can go ahead without her, but Kellyanne knows her daughter better.

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2 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

 

The issue, to me, is that the Conways have not revealed their exact reason for stepping out of the spotlight. All the media stories are nothing more than speculation based on reading social media. Until George or Kellyanne confirm the story, it should be off limits, IMO.

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I was hoping Kellyanne would come out as the anonymous author of A Warning.

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17 hours ago, caustic said:

This isn't "cavalry"--at least any new cavalry

Biden shouldn't have troubles with Latinos in AZ and NV--both will go blue. If he's having trouble there, I might have to actually recant my "it's over" prediction, but I actually see Biden over performing polling by a point or so there due to poorer Latinos sometimes being undercounted in polls.

On the other hand Trump's Latino bump in Florida is likely pretty strong imo

From what my (Latino--Cuban) uncle in Florida relatively active in the local Republican Party (though more just focused on down ballot races since Trump) says, a big chunk is due to Cuban voters rising in trust of Trump after skepticism in 2016--reasons being Bernie's Castro love and general law and order stuff (not that Trump is law and order ethically but the DC backroom corruption matters a lot less on the law and order spectrum than rioters throwing grenades into their courthouses to the casual voter)

Another big reason is the growing bloc of Venezuelan Americans in the Dade County suburbs like Doral and Fountainebleu--highly educated (which for minorities means more likely to vote Republican unlike with white people), middle income, entrepreneurial and being pushed from their homeland by the Bernie Sanders and AOCs of their own country in Chavez/Maduro, they are just not a Democratic constituency in the party's current form and grassroots Republicans have done a good job consolidating their support. 

Throw in an abundance of Cuban and Hispanic down ballot candidates running as Republicans in local/down ballot races (even with minimal Trump connection) and turnout looks pretty sound for the President here

Turnout among Puerto Ricans in Orange County (Orlando) will be Biden's best hope in the state but I don't see it being enough. Florida will go red imo

It's hard to do with 29 electoral votes on the line but if I were Biden I'd focus on protecting the midwest

The election will be won and lost in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (and to a lesser extant Michigan and Minnesota). New Hampshire could go either way too with a slight Dem lean but isn't big enough to be worth the trouble in comparison to the midwest

Edited by KChusker

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5 hours ago, KChusker said:

This isn't "cavalry"--at least any new cavalry

Biden shouldn't have troubles with Latinos in AZ and NV--both will go blue. If he's having trouble there, I might have to actually recant my "it's over" prediction, but I actually see Biden over performing polling by a point or so there due to poorer Latinos sometimes being undercounted in polls.

On the other hand Trump's Latino bump in Florida is likely pretty strong imo

From what my (Latino--Cuban) uncle in Florida relatively active in the local Republican Party (though more just focused on down ballot races since Trump) says, a big chunk is due to Cuban voters rising in trust of Trump after skepticism in 2016--reasons being Bernie's Castro love and general law and order stuff (not that Trump is law and order ethically but the DC backroom corruption matters a lot less on the law and order spectrum than rioters throwing grenades into their courthouses to the casual voter)

Another big reason is the growing bloc of Venezuelan Americans in the Dade County suburbs like Doral and Fountainebleu--highly educated (which for minorities means more likely to vote Republican unlike with white people), middle income, entrepreneurial and being pushed from their homeland by the Bernie Sanders and AOCs of their own country in Chavez/Maduro, they are just not a Democratic constituency in the party's current form and grassroots Republicans have done a good job consolidating their support. 

Throw in an abundance of Cuban and Hispanic down ballot candidates running as Republicans in local/down ballot races (even with minimal Trump connection) and turnout looks pretty sound for the President here

Turnout among Puerto Ricans in Orange County (Orlando) will be Biden's best hope in the state but I don't see it being enough. Florida will go red imo

It's hard to do with 29 electoral votes on the line but if I were Biden I'd focus on protecting the midwest

The election will be won and lost in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (and to a lesser extant Michigan and Minnesota). New Hampshire could go either way too with a slight Dem lean but isn't big enough to be worth the trouble in comparison to the midwest

Here's a Politico article that says Latinos are being pummeled with conspiracy theories.  article

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5 hours ago, KChusker said:

On the other hand Trump's Latino bump in Florida is likely pretty strong imo

One recent Florida poll showed a 3% drop in Hispanic support for Trump.

Another poll did show a 6% increase for Trump, although that poll oversampled Cuban-Americans so the bump could be explained by that.

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