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2020- Way to Early Top 30- UPDATED 1/13: Top 50 (1 Viewer)

A

Ack88

Footballguy
Consider this a first pass. Think keeper format, that is, a hybrid between re-draft and dynasty. Non-ppr. 

1. Zeke Elliot- Relatively speaking, not his best year, but is set up beautifully for long term success. Still think he cracks 2K one of these years. My only hesitation is that the long runs were not there this year, and that is a red flag. Still, my number one overall player. Has a very high floor.

2. Saquon Barkley- A generational talent that had some injuries this year. Think NYG gets him a good surrounding cast. Think next years iteration looks more like rookie year than this past year.

3. CMC- He's #1 on almost anyone's list and I cannot argue with that. Has played the most complete RB position in a long, long time. Moves to #1 in ppr.

4. Michael Thomas- Neck and neck with Cook, but is just too consistent. A catch and yardage machine.

5. D. Cook- Hegemonic statistical year. Can't rank him any lower and he, like Zeke, has the perfect infrastructure surrounding him to put up several dominant years going forward. Injuries always a mitigating factor for me at the very top of round #1.

6. D. Adams- Safe, reliable and consistent. Yes, he missed time but is a volume and target monster that I'll happily choose in the middle of round #1.

7. A. Jones- Due for some touchdown regression but looked every bit the elite back many ff players thought he would be this year.

8. A. Kamara- Due some significant, positive TD rate correction next year. Previous dominant seasons keep him in the round #1 conversation for me despite a down 2019.

9. M. Evans- He stays here if Winston returns. Will drop if Jameis goes. IMO has the highest ceiling of all ff wides. Still has yet to have that confluence of everything breaking right season that could be in the cards.

10. N. Chubb- Hunt provides a little drag on value but has proven to be a cornerstone RB.

11. D. Hopkins- look up consistency in dictionary, find Hopkins' picture.

12. J. Mixon- Has quietly finished strong. Pitiful supporting cast will get upgrade in 2020. 

13. L. Fournette- Game scripts, poor defensive play, and a lackluster cast have not completely obscured that LF is a heck of a football player. 

14. T. Hill- Gamebreaker with elite QB is often a week winner. Conduct questions loom. Still, can't pass here.

15. J. Jones- Another player that had a down 2019. Still 2017 and 2018 are the likely norm in 2020. 

16. J. Jacobs- Another guy I may move up. Impressive rookie season. love the long term outlook and he will get better.

17. D. Henry- Yes, he's had a great year- the kind owners have always hoped for. Still, and I admit it is me, don't love him or the Titans. 

18. J. Connor- Had injury issues and comes with risk. Ben returns next year and think the Steelers get back to previous levels of production on offense.

19. C. Godwin- Career year. Think he'll be good again next year. I would need another year like this to take him over traditionally safer options listed above. Bump down if Jameis leaves.

20. M. Gordon- If he re-ups with SD, move into top of round 2. If not, could move down. 20 overall is my hedge for now.

21. L. Jackson- Cannot let the fantasy MVP drop any further than this.

22. P. Mahomes- Still great. I'll bet 2020 is closer to 2018 than 2019.

23. JuJu- He'll be back strong next year with Ben returning.

24. A. Cooper- If he's back and Dak resigns Amari makes a fine way to end round 2 in a 12 teamer.

25. T. Kelce- TE heavy players will have him higher. #1 TE again. Could jump him a few spots, but this feels right to me.

26. K. Golloday- Worried more about everything around him, but still a fine option here.

27. K. Johnson- Thought about, given the injuries, moving him out of the top 30. Still, he's got a complete skill set.

28. K. Allen- Solid fantasy WR #2. We pretty much know what he is, and that is a solid, but not elite fantasy WR. Rivers back?

29. G. Kittle- Still an absolute beast. Slow start this year should not obscure ability. 9ers have a nice surrounding cast, limiting upside.

30. OBJ- Has to make this list based on talent alone. landing spot?

Would love comments and feedback. Thanks.

 
#23 - Gordon SD - I still think of the Chargers being there, but they are not and he slipped some this season to me

 
Kerryon Johnson is the only player that I wouldn't have in your list in the top 30 for sure.  I would have DJ Moore in there somewhere and also it would be hard for me to keep out Miles Sanders.  Nice list!

 
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The guys that cost me most vs. cost were Kamara and OBJ.  I'm willing to give AK a little more slack but they both concern me a little next year.

 
Agree on the comment about Kerryon. I'm always slightly mystified at the love he gets for having done very little and getting injured a lot. I haven't looked closely but the one glaring player on your list to me is Conner. Not only would I take all the guys listed below over him, but I doubt I would have him anywhere near the top 30, especially in a hybrid format with some longer-term considerations. IMO his value is going to drop like a rock over the next 12 months. 

 
I'll take a run at this to compare and contrast.

1. McCaffrey, simply no reason to have anyone else #1, he's great at everything, and is matchup proof.

2. Barkley, I agree this year is likely an anomaly for him. He probably was never healthy after his ankle injury. 

3. Cook, I think his receiving ability puts him here for me. The o-line should also only improve as it has 3 very young starters.

4. Elliott, I think he's not the pass catcher the RB's ahead of him are, and I too am concerned about the lack of big plays.

5. Kamara, pretty much agree 100%, he's been very unlucky this season, and is a huge bounce back candidate. 

6. Thomas, I might argue him as high as #2 in PPR. He's like peak Brandon Marshall in how he can just take over a game, only instead of QB roulette, he's got Drew Brees.

7. Hopkins, somehow still underrated. I don't think we've seen Watson's best yet either.

8. Chubb, the offense works best going through him, and he's only getting better, his receiving took a step forward this season a bit too.

9. Jacobs, expecting a big breakout in year 2. He's been underused in the passing game, and Raiders are slowly improving as a whole.

10. Hill, a full season with a healthy Mahomes will be a huge boon to both players. 

11. Fournette, offense runs through him, and he's improved greatly as a pass catcher, been very unlucky in the TD department.

12. A.Jones, too TD dependent to be more than a borderline 1st rounder for me, could see the Packers bringing in a lot of weapons this offseason.

13. Evans, pretty much agree with everything. Ceiling is WR1. 

14. Kittle, Another guy who likely hasn't peaked yet. If he gets in the end zone more watch out. Has potential for a Gronk-like run.

15. JuJu, total mulligan for this season. I think the offense goes right back to throwing 600 times with Ben back.

16. Beckham, assuming he stays in Cleveland, I think he's a bounce back candidate. Too talented not to be, and hopefully Browns address o-line.

17. Adams, I think 2018 will go down as his career season. Fully expect multiple additions this offseason at WR, and maybe even TE.

18. Conner, I think he's got total job security. Steelers have other needs to address, and they still have him on a rookie deal. Ben will fix most of what ails them.

19. Cooper, assuming he and Dak stay in Dallas.

20. Godwin, I think Godwin's late season stretch is likely more of what to expect than his hot start. Still great though.

21. Golladay, great talent, gets Stafford back, and is still developing. That said, he's someone I'm nervous about TD regression wise.

22. Kelce, very reliable at thin position, just feel Kittle has a higher ceiling.

23. Mixon, agree that supporting cast will be upgraded, but also wonder if that might not help much. Worries me that Bernard made Mixon a 2-down RB again this season.

24. Julio, might be a bit low, I think he's a bit of a numbers game victim, as Ridley and Hooper were starting to pull even with him at times this year.

25. Gordon, this is where I'd have him if he stays with the Chargers, which I am not expecting, but I don't like projecting FA moves.

26. Carson, maybe should be higher depending on Penny's status come next summer, for now I'm assuming Penny is available week 1, though that is probably a best case scenario.

27. Henry, this feels 100% like a career year for him. These RB's who don't add receiving value tend to fall as quick as they ascend sometimes.

28. Mahomes, I think the truth is somewhere between 2018 and 2019. Having Hill all year should help.

29. Allen, like clockwork every year, always ends up being a low-end WR1, other guys are flashier and more fun to watch/own but Allen is so trustworthy. 

30. Engram, this is my bold call. if he can ever stay healthy, he's going to be elite. I do worry a bit that he's the new Jordan Reed, but his ceiling is TE1.

Kerryon Johnson scares me a bit, while I don't think his starting job is in trouble, he feels like a low-end RB2 to me. What makes him better than say, Devin Singletary?

Lamar Jackson is probably a guy that I will have in zero leagues next year. Its almost always a wise bet to bet on regression, especially for guys who when in a unique way. Defenses are smart, and will likely find a way to take away much of Jackson's rushing production next year. He's my QB3, behind Mahomes and Watson. 

 
I like the Kamara and Fournette calls.

Most worried about Schuster. Something doesn't feel right there.

Rivers worries me and that worries me for Keenan Allen. He made no impact on fantasy teams this year and his few massive games early in the year didn't help you down the stretch. Top 30 players don't disappear for such long stretches.

Players I like to possibly break into the Top 30:

AJ Brown

Terry McClaurin

Devante Parker/and/or Preston Williams (I doubt both can be top 30, but one can)

Austin Ekeler (he's very good and very underrated)

DJ Moore

DJ Chark

Miles Sanders (improving rapidly)

DK Metcalf

 
Ack88 said:
Consider this a first pass. Think keeper format, that is, a hybrid between re-draft and dynasty. Non-ppr. 

1. Zeke Elliot- Relatively speaking, not his best year, but is set up beautifully for long term success. Still think he cracks 2K one of these years. My only hesitation is that the long runs were not there this year, and that is a red flag. Still, my number one overall player. Has a very high floor.

2. Saquon Barkley- A generational talent that had some injuries this year. Think NYG gets him a good surrounding cast. Think next years iteration looks more like rookie year than this past year.

3. CMC- He's #1 on almost anyone's list and I cannot argue with that. Has played the most complete RB position in a long, long time. Moves to #1 in ppr.

4. Michael Thomas- Neck and neck with Cook, but is just too consistent. A catch and yardage machine.

5. D. Cook- Hegemonic statistical year. Can't rank him any lower and he, like Zeke, has the perfect infrastructure surrounding him to put up several dominant years going forward. Injuries always a mitigating factor for me at the very top of round #1.

6. D. Adams- Safe, reliable and consistent. Yes, he missed time but is a volume and target monster that I'll happily choose in the middle of round #1.

7. A. Jones- Due for some touchdown regression but looked every bit the elite back many ff players thought he would be this year.

8. A. Kamara- Due some significant, positive TD rate correction next year. Previous dominant seasons keep him in the round #1 conversation for me despite a down 2019.

9. M. Evans- He stays here if Winston returns. Will drop if Jameis goes. IMO has the highest ceiling of all ff wides. Still has yet to have that confluence of everything breaking right season that could be in the cards.

10. N. Chubb- Hunt provides a little drag on value but has proven to be a cornerstone RB.

11. D. Hopkins- look up consistency in dictionary, find Hopkins' picture.

12. J. Mixon- Has quietly finished strong. Pitiful supporting cast will get upgrade in 2020. 

13. L. Fournette- Game scripts, poor defensive play, and a lackluster cast have not completely obscured that LF is a heck of a football player. 

14. T. Hill- Gamebreaker with elite QB is often a week winner. Conduct questions loom. Still, can't pass here.

15. J. Jones- Another player that had a down 2019. Still 2017 and 2018 are the likely norm in 2020. 

16. J. Jacobs- Another guy I may move up. Impressive rookie season. love the long term outlook and he will get better.

17. D. Henry- Yes, he's had a great year- the kind owners have always hoped for. Still, and I admit it is me, don't love him or the Titans. 

18. J. Connor- Had injury issues and comes with risk. Ben returns next year and think the Steelers get back to previous levels of production on offense.

19. C. Godwin- Career year. Think he'll be good again next year. I would need another year like this to take him over traditionally safer options listed above. Bump down if Jameis leaves.

20. M. Gordon- If he re-ups with SD, move into top of round 2. If not, could move down. 20 overall is my hedge for now.

21. L. Jackson- Cannot let the fantasy MVP drop any further than this.

22. P. Mahomes- Still great. I'll bet 2020 is closer to 2018 than 2019.

23. JuJu- He'll be back strong next year with Ben returning.

24. A. Cooper- If he's back and Dak resigns Amari makes a fine way to end round 2 in a 12 teamer.

25. T. Kelce- TE heavy players will have him higher. #1 TE again. Could jump him a few spots, but this feels right to me.

26. K. Golloday- Worried more about everything around him, but still a fine option here.

27. K. Johnson- Thought about, given the injuries, moving him out of the top 30. Still, he's got a complete skill set.

28. K. Allen- Solid fantasy WR #2. We pretty much know what he is, and that is a solid, but not elite fantasy WR. Rivers back?

29. G. Kittle- Still an absolute beast. Slow start this year should not obscure ability. 9ers have a nice surrounding cast, limiting upside.

30. OBJ- Has to make this list based on talent alone. landing spot?

Would love comments and feedback. Thanks.
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Glaring omission for me: Sutton 

 
Truebluey said:
I like the Kamara and Fournette calls.

Most worried about Schuster. Something doesn't feel right there.

Rivers worries me and that worries me for Keenan Allen. He made no impact on fantasy teams this year and his few massive games early in the year didn't help you down the stretch. Top 30 players don't disappear for such long stretches.

Players I like to possibly break into the Top 30:

AJ Brown

Terry McClaurin

Devante Parker/and/or Preston Williams (I doubt both can be top 30, but one can)

Austin Ekeler (he's very good and very underrated)

DJ Moore

DJ Chark

Miles Sanders (improving rapidly)

DK Metcalf
Click to expand...
Love the guys you have on the cusp. Other than Metcalf, all of the above WR may be playing with a new QB next year, which drove them down just enough to move out of the top 30. 

I love Ekeler's ability and talent but I can't go top 30 with Gordon possibly back as a lead dog. 

Still feel, given Pederson's time share proclivities, that Sanders isn't quite in the top 30. 

For me, my first 17 players look fairly entrenched right now. Admittedly, I opt to value past production over future ceiling during the early stages of drafts/auctions. Starting with Connor at #18, moving through my top 30 and included cusp players you added- I see a lot of volatility coming for players within the range of #18-40ish. 

I'm going to try and build this list out going forward. 

 
It’s a good list. Idk about Gordon or Conner or like a few others have said Kerryon. I’d like to see the rookies Miles Sanders and Devin Singletary on there. And I know Gurley had a bad year, but he hasn’t fallen out of the top 30 to me.

 
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As for two players in the conversation that I owned this season- James Conner and Devin Singletary- I rank Singletary above Conner going forward. We’ve seen Conners ceiling last season and while it was great I get a feeling that it will be his high water mark. Watching what Singletary has quietly done as the season has progressed is really exciting. While I’m sure my league mates with question the move, I am choosing Singletary in my keeper league and not second guessing the decision. 

 
Aaron Jones shouldn't even be in the top 30 IMO. Keep him there though because that's exactly the type of player I want other teams to draft during dynasty startup season. 

Julio Jones also doesn't belong on the list. DJ Moore needs to be there instead.  Courtland Sutton too, how does he not make the top 30?

Kerryon Johnson isn't even a top 60 player IMO. Also remove MelGo. 

Miles Sanders and AJ Brown are also missing from the list. 

If Julio, Aaron Jones, Kerryon, MelGo and Keenan Allen all get drafted in the top 30 I will be ecstatic about the players falling to me in the 4th round. 

 
kittenmittens said:
Aaron Jones shouldn't even be in the top 30 IMO. Keep him there though because that's exactly the type of player I want other teams to draft during dynasty startup season. 

Julio Jones also doesn't belong on the list. DJ Moore needs to be there instead.  Courtland Sutton too, how does he not make the top 30?

Kerryon Johnson isn't even a top 60 player IMO. Also remove MelGo. 

Miles Sanders and AJ Brown are also missing from the list. 

If Julio, Aaron Jones, Kerryon, MelGo and Keenan Allen all get drafted in the top 30 I will be ecstatic about the players falling to me in the 4th round. 
Click to expand...
Remember, the format I listed for was non-ppr and keeper, not dynasty. 

There is no way that I would take DJ Moore over Julio in a keeper format right now. We don't know who will be playing QB for Carolina next year. Julio, even in a down year, still is a great player. Moore will be, but he's not there just yet. 

Given the pushback on K. Johnson, think I might have to bump him down- looks like i'm over valuing him.

Sanders and Brown have been really good an offer more upside, but i'm not ready to put them in my top 30 just yet. 

 
kittenmittens said:
Aaron Jones shouldn't even be in the top 30 IMO. Keep him there though because that's exactly the type of player I want other teams to draft during dynasty startup season. 

Julio Jones also doesn't belong on the list. DJ Moore needs to be there instead.  Courtland Sutton too, how does he not make the top 30?

Kerryon Johnson isn't even a top 60 player IMO. Also remove MelGo. 

Miles Sanders and AJ Brown are also missing from the list. 

If Julio, Aaron Jones, Kerryon, MelGo and Keenan Allen all get drafted in the top 30 I will be ecstatic about the players falling to me in the 4th round. 
Click to expand...
You're wrong about Aaron Jones, but right about A J Brown.  Yes, Julio belongs, he keeps on truckin'.  I agree with you about Kerryon Johnson.

 
Deamon said:
With today's passing league, almost no point for PPR now.  At the very least, less of a need for it now than there was when many leagues started putting it in. 

0.5 PPR seems to make the most sense.
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I didn't even know non-ppr existed.

 
Axk88 great timing for this thread.

I have found ranking players right after the regular season (now) leads to more solid rankings later on when ADP begins reforming.

I see these rankings as primarily being for redraft. The age and longevity less of a factor in a keeper league than in dynasty.

I will try to work on this and post a list once I do.

 
Maybe Julio will decline one of these years, but I think he has been written off prematurely by many. He was 2nd to Thomas in yards this year, so I am not sure how it counts as a down year for him. He’s got at least 1 more elite year in him. 

 
JohnnyU said:
You're wrong about Aaron Jones, but right about A J Brown.  Yes, Julio belongs, he keeps on truckin'.  I agree with you about Kerryon Johnson.
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Aaron is going to be 26 during the season next year.   Taking 26 year old RBs in the first 4 rounds isn't a winning dynasty strategy IMO. 

I know I'm in the minority on not liking Jones tho, which is fine with me. 

 
Biabreakable said:
Axk88 great timing for this thread.

I have found ranking players right after the regular season (now) leads to more solid rankings later on when ADP begins reforming.

I see these rankings as primarily being for redraft. The age and longevity less of a factor in a keeper league than in dynasty.

I will try to work on this and post a list once I do.
Click to expand...
Thanks. I enjoy having my thinking vetted.

As I play keeper format, my rankings skew a bit more like redraft than pure dynasty.

 
James Conner shouldn’t sniff this list. even if they don’t draft an RB he won’t be lead dog

 
Sounds like Henry is going to be undervalued next year if people think this year was a fluke. If he is available in the 3rd that's going to be tough to pass up. RB3 in PPG in PPR this year. He should be 1st round based on that. 

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Joe Mixon is almost 2 years younger than Derrick Henry. How much does this mean?
Click to expand...
Great question.

I think being younger is certainly a tie breaker for otherwise equal players.

Historical evidence suggests that players from the RB position are at their peak values prior to being 26 years old so it could be more significant than just a tie breaker.

How much more is something we could try to quantify that.

In this case Mixon will be 24 years old in July 

Henry will turn 26 years old in 3 days from now.

Henry being in his 26 year old season for 2020 does put him past the historical peak performance apex or in the last year of it while Mixon has two more years to go inside this window.

 
I also wanted to point out that I am not looking for ordered lists. The polls will determine that. I am just looking for a top 15 in no particular order for the polls.

This would also be a good time to offer any suggestions of things you would like to see from the polls before I get the ball rolling.

 
barackdhouse said:
Sounds like Henry is going to be undervalued next year if people think this year was a fluke. If he is available in the 3rd that's going to be tough to pass up. RB3 in PPG in PPR this year. He should be 1st round based on that. 
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He's a guaranteed 1st round pick next year assuming he and Tannehill stay in Tennessee.

 
Anybody else want their keeper/dynasty players knocked out in the first round?  Seems like a longer offseason and less wear and tear would be a good thing.

 
starks said:
James Conner shouldn’t sniff this list. even if they don’t draft an RB he won’t be lead dog
Click to expand...
If everyone comes back healthy (Big Ben / Ju Ju / Pouncey) he'll be top 10 again.

 
Skoo said:
He's a guaranteed 1st round pick next year assuming he and Tannehill stay in Tennessee.
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Only problem I have with Henry is that he doesn’t offer much as a receiver.

While I don’t expect that there will be too many negative game scripts given the team’s improvement, it’s still a risk factor relative to some of the other top backs who catch a lot of passes. 

 
djjosee said:
If everyone comes back healthy (Big Ben / Ju Ju / Pouncey) he'll be top 10 again.
Click to expand...
But HE can’t stay healthy.  Whether it’s a major injury (like the knee his rookie year), or the nagging injuries the last two years, he’s constantly getting dinged, late scratch, or even worse, plays and exits early.

 
Bayhawks said:
But HE can’t stay healthy.  Whether it’s a major injury (like the knee his rookie year), or the nagging injuries the last two years, he’s constantly getting dinged, late scratch, or even worse, plays and exits early.
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Agree with Bayhawks here.  I love James Conner as much if not more than anyone, but the guy can't finish a game, let alone a season.

 
If you’ve owned Connor you understand this. He obviously provided great value last season for those that handcuffed or took him late, but that super value was gone this year and as a result he proved he may not be build for NFL workhorse designation. Love the guy, love the player but won’t be owning next year barring a total free fall in drafts.

 
djjosee said:
If everyone comes back healthy (Big Ben / Ju Ju / Pouncey) he'll be top 10 again.
Click to expand...
I hope people in my league think like this. I will NEVER draft him in any round, let alone top 10. Love the guy but he is made of glass. I was one of the stupid ones who owned him this year,  never again. 

 
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irish eyes said:
I hope people in my league think like this. I will NEVER draft him in any round, let alone top 10. Love the guy but he is made of glass. I was one of the stupid ones who owned him this year,  never again. 
Click to expand...
It's interesting to think Steelers down year was ONLY because of injuries. I expected JuJu and Connor to be disappointments even before Ben went down. People really expect JuJu and Connor to just put up Brown/Bell stats when I think this whole offense struggles even with Ben. 

 
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